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UK punters getting nervous about Biden’s prospects and the money is going on Trump – politicalbettin

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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,914

    I have had a covid idea that will appeal to the puritanical amongst you. Anyone found by the police to be in serious/repeated breach of the Covid regulations, is denied the right to free Covid care on the NHS and will be charged by credit card for their care should they require Covid hospitalisation. A simple per day charge. I think it would be very popular. 'NHS should be free at the point of use, not free at the point of abuse'.

    It is a very dangerous route if people who break the law are denied NHS treatment.
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    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    OT. If anyone hasn't seen the 7 part series on Netflix called Queens Gambit they're missing a treat. Best chess film ever made

    Bit of a dull opening though. :)
    Giuoco piano ?
    Not so dull if Black plays the Traxler/Wilkes-Barre.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:



    One area where, even with caveats about it, the public are less forgiving.
    I find it hard to reconcile this belief with the actual numbers given on sites like Worldmeter.

    According to their numbers the UK has done more tests than any other country in the world except the big 4 - China, USA, India and Russia. A total of 34.4 million tests to date.

    When it comes to tests per million people, with the exception of the smallest countries - those of les than 1 million population - only Denmark, Israel, the UAE and Singapore have done more tests per head of population then the UK.

    Thing is, I agree with the perception that the UK has handled testing badly. That is my impression as well. But the numbers do not, on face value, support that claim.
    Problem is, it’s been little more than a very expensive and slightly delayed running commentary on the pandemic, rather than a means to enable its control.
    Yes. Too much emphasis on the absolute number of tests, too little on (a) getting the results really fast, and (b) following up the contact-tracing (and virtually no backwards contact-tracing). The net result has been a huge expenditure for little benefit.
    When this all began we couldn't do anything like enough tests, so inevitably we pursued approaches that expanded testing capacity enormously. Unfortunately in systems there is almost always a trade off between capacity and speed, and when you approach the limits of capacity speed invariably falls off a cliff, as we saw a few months ago.

    You can't easily fix this by making a high capacity system go faster. The right thing to do is to build a second speed optimised testing system, probably with lower accuracy testing, and funnel positives into the high capacity PCR system for confirmation. You don't really need to worry about false negatives, as we are already missing huge numbers of positive cases. The key is to be able to do enough tests quickly enough to snuff out hot-spots before they spread far.
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    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    This BBC forgeries, Diana interview stuff demands resignations and prosecutions and should be the end of the licence fee, but is passing virtually unnoticed.

    Does anyone care?
    Well, no, that was rather my point. If you are trying to say that you personally are not fussed about honourable and honest conduct in public life, I think we knew that.
    Of course I am fussed but of all the issues about honesty this seems pretty trivial. It was a quarter of a century, and many of the individuals involved are either dead or retired or hospitalised due to COVID. Of all the things to get worked up about this doesn't seem that big of a story.

    Maybe if it had come to light twenty two years ago it would have been much more shocking. But now? No.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Spreadex remains stranded on 311 ECVs.

    There's just a chance that if I'm right about Florida there may be a slight window worth jumping through before the 311 shoots up to c. 330.

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    Stock Markets pretty bouyant. Presumably they would prefer a Biden win?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,393
    The problem with these people, among other things is the suspect, JC, has been caught with the smoking gun in his hand standing over the body, and there is clear CCTV footage of the crime to prove his guilt, yet they still want to clear him. Knobs!
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited November 2020

    LadyG said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I've started on the Perrier Jouet and soon I am off to eat oysters at Randall & Aubin, in Soho.

    If we must depart this world, let us do it with style
    I am a huge fan of their Belle Epoque. One of my all-time favourites along with Dom Perignon.

    Enjoy!

    (Cue the infantile comments that you and I are one and the same which ignores the equally compelling argument that writers are of a certain genre.)
    You are each other and I therefore claim my £5^2 = £25
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    Even Ed Conway has twigged the eggheads haven't been straight shooting....

    https://youtu.be/atbnvog1yuI
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Stock Markets pretty bouyant. Presumably they would prefer a Biden win?

    Yes and they think it's going to be decisive. The worst possible outcome is a wrangle through November.
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    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just over a year ago the dog and I dropped into Wilmington Animal Hospital to get his pet passport signed off before we embarked on the ship back to the UK. Just along the road from there, Biden will be making his victory speech in the small hours tomorrow, US time.

    Almost exactly one year ago - November 6, 2019 - I was tucking into freshly-shucked Gulf oysters in the Bourbon House oyster bar, in the French Quarter, in the warm, sultry autumn sunshine of New Orleans, with barely a care in the world.

    What the F. What has happened. What has happened to us all.
    It’s true that those who were there with you do seem to have disappeared. From PB, at least.
    As soon as this medieval plague shit is over I am going somewhere gloriously sunny and wildly hedonistic.

    I can't decide between New Orleans, Bangkok or maybe somewhere in the Indian Ocean
    I've already decided that I'm giving it until March and then, fuck it, I'm going to travel whatever.
    Likewise. I am almost beyond caring. If we are allowed in December I am going to grab some winter sun then. Christmas is fucked anyway.

    Come the new year I will be off to balmier climes as soon as it is legally possible, and probably before
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Trump for Florida is one of my saver bets.

    It is taking an Iron will not to go in hard on Dems @ 2.5
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,399

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I will be commencing my journey to bliss or despair shortly.

    Eating ... cherry pie and custard.

    Drinking ... Chilean Merlot.

    Wearing ... Denim cutoffs and a Bob Dylan tee shirt.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,909

    Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida

    On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see

    so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated

    But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
    Yes more than Dems voting Trump for sure
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,393
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just over a year ago the dog and I dropped into Wilmington Animal Hospital to get his pet passport signed off before we embarked on the ship back to the UK. Just along the road from there, Biden will be making his victory speech in the small hours tomorrow, US time.

    Almost exactly one year ago - November 6, 2019 - I was tucking into freshly-shucked Gulf oysters in the Bourbon House oyster bar, in the French Quarter, in the warm, sultry autumn sunshine of New Orleans, with barely a care in the world.

    What the F. What has happened. What has happened to us all.
    It’s true that those who were there with you do seem to have disappeared. From PB, at least.
    As soon as this medieval plague shit is over I am going somewhere gloriously sunny and wildly hedonistic.

    I can't decide between New Orleans, Bangkok or maybe somewhere in the Indian Ocean
    I've already decided that I'm giving it until March and then, fuck it, I'm going to travel whatever.
    Likewise. I am almost beyond caring. If we are allowed in December I am going to grab some winter sun then. Christmas is fucked anyway.

    Come the new year I will be off to balmier climes as soon as it is legally possible, and probably before
    The Vale of Glamorgan, and Penarth in particular are very pleasant at Spring.
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    LadyG said:

    I've been itching for a great new series for a while so thank you for that Gambit tip folks. Just loading it up now.

    Fab.

    The only downside is that it just 7 episodes, you want it go on and on.

    And now it's been a big hit and Netflix are under pressure to produce a second series, yet it is a self contained story.
    Just finished it, best thing on netflix for a while.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,012
    IMHO, Trump will hold Florida, on these numbers.
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    The problem with these people, among other things is the suspect, JC, has been caught with the smoking gun in his hand standing over the body, and there is clear CCTV footage of the crime to prove his guilt, yet they still want to clear him. Knobs!
    I hope people here will respect that I have changed my mind about Corbyn, especially since EHRC.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I've started on the Perrier Jouet and soon I am off to eat oysters at Randall & Aubin, in Soho.

    If we must depart this world, let us do it with style
    I am a huge fan of their Belle Epoque. One of my all-time favourites along with Dom Perignon.

    Enjoy!

    (Cue the infantile comments that you and I are one and the same which ignores the equally compelling argument that writers are of a certain genre.)
    I've never seen the appeal of Cristal. And I've had bottles worth many hundreds. Supposedly.

    Dom is nice. I like Churchill's Pol Roger.

    I am also a big fan of the best English fizz. Nyetimber et al.

    We are one. Uh-oh. I totally agree about Cristal. Almost dislike it.

    And I love Pol Roger's 'White Label' aka Brut Reserve. That's my favourite everyday champers. As, indeed, it was Winston's.

    But if I'm splurging then it has to be either the Perrier Jouet Belle Epoque or Dom Perignon for me. Adore both. Creamy, sensuous, glorious. Champagnes of pure seduction.
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida

    On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see

    so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated

    But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
    Monmouth's last FL poll had Biden winning Independents by 14%, I believe.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    edited November 2020
    Trump does look pretty downbeat in that video clip.

    Notable that he didn't dismiss the idea of a concession speech.
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    I believe if Mr Biden does win, it will be the start of a new decade of leftist resurgence - and that will be good for us all.

    Not if Biden starts/joins in a war somewhere - he has been encouraging the rebels in Belarus, for example.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,909

    Spreadex remains stranded on 311 ECVs.

    There's just a chance that if I'm right about Florida there may be a slight window worth jumping through before the 311 shoots up to c. 330.

    If it shoots down to 270 you may have to jump out of a window!!

    I dont spread bet but 311 is close to my Biden optimistic ceiling and if forced right now i would sell rather than buy TBH
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:

    IMHO, Trump will hold Florida, on these numbers.

    Is miami dade reporting numbers?
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    Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Mal557 said:

    Biden 306 Trump 232.

    Did you just reverse the 2016 result? :) J/k aside thats not far off where I am, though bit more breathing space for Joe in yours
    I have 306-232, too. Biden flips MI,WI,PA,AZ,GA and Omaha.
    GA but not NC?
    I think he will just miss out on both of those, but the others I have for him, but not Omaha!! :)
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kinabalu said:
    I think he does know. But to be fair to him, he's probably absolutely knackered.

    Whatever else you think of Trump, and in my case it's not a lot, he has worked his bloody socks off campaigning. I've got to hand that to him.
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    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:



    One area where, even with caveats about it, the public are less forgiving.
    I find it hard to reconcile this belief with the actual numbers given on sites like Worldmeter.

    According to their numbers the UK has done more tests than any other country in the world except the big 4 - China, USA, India and Russia. A total of 34.4 million tests to date.

    When it comes to tests per million people, with the exception of the smallest countries - those of les than 1 million population - only Denmark, Israel, the UAE and Singapore have done more tests per head of population then the UK.

    Thing is, I agree with the perception that the UK has handled testing badly. That is my impression as well. But the numbers do not, on face value, support that claim.
    Problem is, it’s been little more than a very expensive and slightly delayed running commentary on the pandemic, rather than a means to enable its control.
    I agree with this - and with the other comments from Doug et al. But it seems to me that in that case we are pushing at the wrong thing in terms of criticising the Government. People think the testing is going badly when in fact it is the overall containment strategy that is wrong. My fear with this Government is that they will see public concern about testing and so think that just doing more tests is the answer rather than dealing with the real issues.

    You can see this perhaps in the new strategy starting in Liverpool. Test everyone. But even testing everyone doesn't help if you then don't isolate them properly when they test positive.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,399
    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
    Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323668834440675330
    This is the specifi quote that relates to PA

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
    4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
    I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
    I think Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump - the Biden leads there are just too big.
    Yep. Michigan in particular seems like a dream for him now.
    It took him four days to spread COVID in Saginaw...
    :smile: - It's quite apt isn't it? We are - today - looking for America.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    edited November 2020
    Famous last words but so far:

    There doesn't appear to be reports of voter intimidation.

    No Court actions appear to have been launched - the only thing that has happened is a Judge ordering an urgent sweep of post offices for any ballots to be delivered immediately.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just over a year ago the dog and I dropped into Wilmington Animal Hospital to get his pet passport signed off before we embarked on the ship back to the UK. Just along the road from there, Biden will be making his victory speech in the small hours tomorrow, US time.

    Almost exactly one year ago - November 6, 2019 - I was tucking into freshly-shucked Gulf oysters in the Bourbon House oyster bar, in the French Quarter, in the warm, sultry autumn sunshine of New Orleans, with barely a care in the world.

    What the F. What has happened. What has happened to us all.
    It’s true that those who were there with you do seem to have disappeared. From PB, at least.
    As soon as this medieval plague shit is over I am going somewhere gloriously sunny and wildly hedonistic.

    I can't decide between New Orleans, Bangkok or maybe somewhere in the Indian Ocean
    You might like Thailand I think
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,323

    IshmaelZ said:

    This BBC forgeries, Diana interview stuff demands resignations and prosecutions and should be the end of the licence fee, but is passing virtually unnoticed.

    Does anyone care?
    I am showing my age but I met my wife while watching the Bashir interview with Di in 1995. She was a visiting student over from the States. I was looking to impress from the back of the JCR with the big TV with my terrifically witty comments about Will Carling being behind one of the curtains. Seemed to work but low bar with these American girls.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    kyf_100 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does anyone know when the second series of Chernobyl is out?

    There was a second nuclear accident?
    I thought Chernobyl was a good series until a Ukrainian friend of mine told me, in the first episode alone, he counted seven inaccuracies on one hand.
    I enjoyed it a lot, but at the end of the day it is a drama not a documentary.

    I highly recommend the book Chernobyl: History of a Tragedy by Serhii Plokhy to anyone who wants to know more about the accident.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,399

    Spreadex remains stranded on 311 ECVs.

    There's just a chance that if I'm right about Florida there may be a slight window worth jumping through before the 311 shoots up to c. 330.

    Buy it.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,909
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,909
    Right I am going to have a couple of hours at the pub ahead of the PB Zoom event.

    When are we getting details or have i missed it?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,963
    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
    Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323668834440675330
    This is the specifi quote that relates to PA

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
    4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
    I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
    I think Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump - the Biden leads there are just too big.
    Yep. Michigan in particular seems like a dream for him now.
    It took him four days to spread COVID in Saginaw...
    Laughing at the Texas bus, playing games with the races...
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,399

    kinabalu said:
    I think he does know. But to be fair to him, he's probably absolutely knackered.

    Whatever else you think of Trump, and in my case it's not a lot, he has worked his bloody socks off campaigning. I've got to hand that to him.
    He's a game old stick. But such an embarrassment.

    That YMCA dancing ... Tragic Grandpa.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,017
    Red Election day Wave ?
    It's red alright, not sure how much of a wave it is though.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,940
    kinabalu said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I will be commencing my journey to bliss or despair shortly.

    Eating ... cherry pie and custard.

    Drinking ... Chilean Merlot.

    Wearing ... Denim cutoffs and a Bob Dylan tee shirt.
    I am on Portuguese White and about to cook a Chicken and Pepper Stir Fry with Soya and Ginger Sauce.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036
    edited November 2020
    kinabalu said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I will be commencing my journey to bliss or despair shortly.

    Eating ... cherry pie and custard.

    Drinking ... Chilean Merlot.

    Wearing ... Denim cutoffs and a Bob Dylan tee shirt.
    A tale of Yankee Power indeed.
    "Can you tell me where we're heading?
    Lincoln County Road or Armageddon?"
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    If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,644

    Even Ed Conway has twigged the eggheads haven't been straight shooting....

    //youtu.be/atbnvog1yuI

    That's actually a useful video.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,393

    The problem with these people, among other things is the suspect, JC, has been caught with the smoking gun in his hand standing over the body, and there is clear CCTV footage of the crime to prove his guilt, yet they still want to clear him. Knobs!
    I hope people here will respect that I have changed my mind about Corbyn, especially since EHRC.
    I have just seen your pro-
    Cameron post downthread. For a moment I thought you might have gone full Tory!

    Corbyn was seen as a joke for decades. The EHRC confirms he was no laughing matter after all. Glad you have seen the light.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183

    Even Ed Conway has twigged the eggheads haven't been straight shooting....

    https://youtu.be/atbnvog1yuI

    That is an absolutely fantastic piece of analysis by Conway.

    Thanks for posting Francis.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,806

    The problem with these people, among other things is the suspect, JC, has been caught with the smoking gun in his hand standing over the body, and there is clear CCTV footage of the crime to prove his guilt, yet they still want to clear him. Knobs!
    I hope people here will respect that I have changed my mind about Corbyn, especially since EHRC.
    Yes CorrectCorbynHorseBattery.
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    kinabalu said:
    I think he does know. But to be fair to him, he's probably absolutely knackered.

    Whatever else you think of Trump, and in my case it's not a lot, he has worked his bloody socks off campaigning. I've got to hand that to him.
    For him, he sounded rather flat there. But then, as you point out, he has been burning the candle at both ends for a while now ...
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,936
    edited November 2020

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    OT. If anyone hasn't seen the 7 part series on Netflix called Queens Gambit they're missing a treat. Best chess film ever made

    Bit of a dull opening though. :)
    Giuoco piano ?
    Not so dull if Black plays the Traxler/Wilkes-Barre.
    Ah, yes. From the Golden Era of chess when both sides just tried to kill each other in the most artistic way possible.

    Where's the artistry in grinding the opponent down over 100 moves, eh, Magnus?
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    In what way nervous?
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    Even Ed Conway has twigged the eggheads haven't been straight shooting....

    https://youtu.be/atbnvog1yuI

    That is an absolutely fantastic piece of analysis by Conway.

    Thanks for posting Francis.
    I have given Ed a bashing in the past, but I give him credit here, its a decent round up...maybe he has been reading PB the past few days!
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,096
    Floater said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just over a year ago the dog and I dropped into Wilmington Animal Hospital to get his pet passport signed off before we embarked on the ship back to the UK. Just along the road from there, Biden will be making his victory speech in the small hours tomorrow, US time.

    Almost exactly one year ago - November 6, 2019 - I was tucking into freshly-shucked Gulf oysters in the Bourbon House oyster bar, in the French Quarter, in the warm, sultry autumn sunshine of New Orleans, with barely a care in the world.

    What the F. What has happened. What has happened to us all.
    It’s true that those who were there with you do seem to have disappeared. From PB, at least.
    As soon as this medieval plague shit is over I am going somewhere gloriously sunny and wildly hedonistic.

    I can't decide between New Orleans, Bangkok or maybe somewhere in the Indian Ocean
    You might like Thailand I think
    Land of Smiles. Welcoming, hospitable people. Lovely beaches, too. Back there as soon as I can, although as I’ve got family there I’m prejudiced.
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    Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    TimT said:

    kinabalu said:
    I think he does know. But to be fair to him, he's probably absolutely knackered.

    Whatever else you think of Trump, and in my case it's not a lot, he has worked his bloody socks off campaigning. I've got to hand that to him.
    For him, he sounded rather flat there. But then, as you point out, he has been burning the candle at both ends for a while now ...
    I wouldnt read too much into that interview. yes he sounded flat and said 'losing isnt easy' but in the context of the whole interview it didnt sound overly defeatist to me. I suspect he's tired and also perhaps realises being overly vocal or bullish while people are still voting may not be the best thing.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183
    MikeL said:

    Trump does look pretty downbeat in that video clip.

    Notable that he didn't dismiss the idea of a concession speech.


    Peter Alexander
    @PeterAlexander
    NEW: Early concern inside Trumpworld about Election Day turnout activities in PA: A person with direct knowledge of the campaign's operations tells me, “The team in Pennsylvania was not as prepared as it should be in a state that could decide the presidency.”
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,963

    LadyG said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I've started on the Perrier Jouet and soon I am off to eat oysters at Randall & Aubin, in Soho.

    If we must depart this world, let us do it with style
    I am a huge fan of their Belle Epoque. One of my all-time favourites along with Dom Perignon.

    Enjoy!

    (Cue the infantile comments that you and I are one and the same which ignores the equally compelling argument that writers are of a certain genre.)
    Nah, Sean was never good enough to sustain a character slightly different from himself.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    Basically she's saying he has to do everything the way Corbyn did, because he stood after Corbyn, who developed things?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036

    If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?

    Don't reckon that necessarily follows.
    Both have massive demographic changes.
    But very different ones.
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    The problem with these people, among other things is the suspect, JC, has been caught with the smoking gun in his hand standing over the body, and there is clear CCTV footage of the crime to prove his guilt, yet they still want to clear him. Knobs!
    I hope people here will respect that I have changed my mind about Corbyn, especially since EHRC.
    I have just seen your pro-
    Cameron post downthread. For a moment I thought you might have gone full Tory!

    Corbyn was seen as a joke for decades. The EHRC confirms he was no laughing matter after all. Glad you have seen the light.
    No, I do not support Cameron and Ed M was who I supported but my point is that Cameron is better than Johnson.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,017

    If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?

    No.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,017
    DO WE HAVE A ZOOOOOOOOOM BTW ?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183
    Less than six hours until the polls close.

    What the OTD turnout prediction in the swing states?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,399

    If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?

    No. In fact, Texas going but Florida not has been a recurring thought of mine. Florida is an odd state which could be Trump's one bright spot on a bad night for him. Like Putney for Labour on Dec 12th. I can definitely see that.
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    MikeL said:

    Famous last words but so far:

    There doesn't appear to be reports of voter intimidation.

    No Court actions appear to have been launched - the only thing that has happened is a Judge ordering an urgent sweep of post offices for any ballots to be delivered immediately.

    If you don't consider people being forced to queue for hours to cast a vote a form of intimidation.
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    JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 651

    Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida

    On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see

    so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated

    But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
    Good evening PBers .. :smiley:

    Indeed these tight swing states will be decided by the differential crossover vote and independents. The polling clearly indicates advantage Biden in both groups.

    My judgement is GOP for Biden 12.5% and Dem for Trump 7.5%. Independents 57.5/42.5 Biden.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,017

    Less than six hours until the polls close.

    What the OTD turnout prediction in the swing states?

    Maricopa, Arizona. Maricopa is over half the state.

    https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1323702938770927617
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    Less than six hours until the polls close.

    What the OTD turnout prediction in the swing states?

    Six hours until we get find out what american cuban drag queens thought about Biden's $15/hr policy....and 3hrs of other fascinating info from CNNs exit poll.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183
    The latest data from Sumter puts GOP at less than 60% with turnout at 85%.

    Hmm.

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=sum
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,203
    edited November 2020
    Ed Balls done a straw poll in the North East of England for the One Show on the presidential election and was 50 50 Biden and Trump
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,202
    HYUFD said:

    Ed Balls done a straw poll in the North East of England for the One Show on the presidential election and was 50 50 Biden and Trump

    How many EC votes do they have?
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    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    OT. If anyone hasn't seen the 7 part series on Netflix called Queens Gambit they're missing a treat. Best chess film ever made

    Bit of a dull opening though. :)
    Giuoco piano ?
    Maybe not that dull...


    Steering vaguely back to the topic, I could see Biden playing a Giuoco Pianissimo. Steady, soporific, afraid to make errors.

    Trump would just throw the board over. With a complaint that the dark squares were the wrong colour.

    So Biden winning by a landslide again.
    Lol, yes. Although Bobby Fischer effectively did that and still won.

    I've witnessed a few board throwing incidents in chess tournaments. Some people really don't like losing.
    The best bust-up I ever witnessed occurred long ago in a league match between Cardiff Police and Cardiff Arabs. [Yes that was really their name - mostly students from the Middle East at the two Universities in Cardiff in those days. It probably wouldn't be permissible now.]

    The Police weren't exactly cheats but 'roguish' describes their reputation well. The CA lads were fine, but perhaps a little excitable. The trouble arose on one of the lower boards where the copper had somehow contrived to lose his king's rook, but the king was still on its original spot and the bishop and knight squares were vacant. Needless to say he was getting well pasted when he decided to improve his posiiton in a novel way. He castled - by taking his king, correctly, in his right hand and moving it onto the knight square whilst simultaneously and rather deftly taking the queen's rook from its place on the adjacent board on the next table and dropping it on the bishop's square by the king.

    Incredibly his opponent failed to notice this. Worse, several moves were played on both boards before the CA player to the right of the copper noticed his queen's rook was missing and started looking around for it. As it happened, the design of the sets on the two tables was slightly different which gave the game away and...well to call it uproar would be putting it mildly.

    It was the only chess match I ever attended which was abandoned due to fighting.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,055

    MikeL said:

    Famous last words but so far:

    There doesn't appear to be reports of voter intimidation.

    No Court actions appear to have been launched - the only thing that has happened is a Judge ordering an urgent sweep of post offices for any ballots to be delivered immediately.

    If you don't consider people being forced to queue for hours to cast a vote a form of intimidation.
    Welcome to America
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,399
    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I will be commencing my journey to bliss or despair shortly.

    Eating ... cherry pie and custard.

    Drinking ... Chilean Merlot.

    Wearing ... Denim cutoffs and a Bob Dylan tee shirt.
    A tale of Yankee Power indeed.
    "Can you tell me where we're heading?
    Lincoln County Road or Armageddon?"
    Great song - in my Bob top 30.

    He's voting Biden btw. The tee shirt spoke to me and told me this.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,393

    The problem with these people, among other things is the suspect, JC, has been caught with the smoking gun in his hand standing over the body, and there is clear CCTV footage of the crime to prove his guilt, yet they still want to clear him. Knobs!
    I hope people here will respect that I have changed my mind about Corbyn, especially since EHRC.
    I have just seen your pro-
    Cameron post downthread. For a moment I thought you might have gone full Tory!

    Corbyn was seen as a joke for decades. The EHRC confirms he was no laughing matter after all. Glad you have seen the light.
    No, I do not support Cameron and Ed M was who I supported but my point is that Cameron is better than Johnson.
    I know, just kidding. I don't find Cameron as offensive as what came later either, but his foolish arrogance cost me my sun-kissed retirement.
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    Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    The latest data from Sumter puts GOP at less than 60% with turnout at 85%.

    Hmm.

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=sum

    Thats interesting as he got 69% there in 2016 and concensus seems to be he needs 66/67+ if he drops down low 60s hes in trouble in FL i think means the older voters may have deserted him a bit,. though that number you gave wont include the NPAs so he may well get a good chunk of them in that county
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183
    JACK_W said:

    Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida

    On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see

    so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated

    But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
    Good evening PBers .. :smiley:

    Indeed these tight swing states will be decided by the differential crossover vote and independents. The polling clearly indicates advantage Biden in both groups.

    My judgement is GOP for Biden 12.5% and Dem for Trump 7.5%. Independents 57.5/42.5 Biden.
    Good evening Jack.

    Can you share the latest outpourings of your ARSE?
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kinabalu said:

    Spreadex remains stranded on 311 ECVs.

    There's just a chance that if I'm right about Florida there may be a slight window worth jumping through before the 311 shoots up to c. 330.

    Buy it.
    I think that would be heart over head. I am covered elsewhere on Biden for everything above 300.

    However, whilst I think he's going to land at 330 + it only takes a couple of tight races to put him at 300.

    311 still isn't attractive enough for me.

    Although my head does say landslide ...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,963

    If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?

    I think they’re sufficiently different for that not to be the case.
    But Texas will report pretty quickly anyway.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,806

    MikeL said:

    Famous last words but so far:

    There doesn't appear to be reports of voter intimidation.

    No Court actions appear to have been launched - the only thing that has happened is a Judge ordering an urgent sweep of post offices for any ballots to be delivered immediately.

    If you don't consider people being forced to queue for hours to cast a vote a form of intimidation.
    Once every four years you can stand in the cold and in the rain. I'd suspect many queuers actually liked the queue - a chance to chat to the neighbours you've never met.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,393
    HYUFD said:
    With 2m votes NPA unaccounted for that tells us precisely zip!
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,053
    Trump: "Losing is never easy".
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183
    Pulpstar said:

    Less than six hours until the polls close.

    What the OTD turnout prediction in the swing states?

    Maricopa, Arizona. Maricopa is over half the state.

    https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1323702938770927617

    That OTD advantage appears to be heading south.

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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    HYUFD said:
    With 2m votes NPA unaccounted for that tells us precisely zip!
    Indeed, if they are breaking per the Monmouth poll, then it is a clear Biden win. If breaking evenly, Trump holds.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,053

    If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?

    Almost certainly. 99%.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,017
    This is quite a funny tweet when you think about it

    https://twitter.com/CassandraRules/status/1323705630939643904
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Nigelb said:

    If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?

    I think they’re sufficiently different for that not to be the case.
    But Texas will report pretty quickly anyway.
    I think TX is sui generis, given its history of low level turnout, and the state of the state level races.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183
    Trump out sharply to 3 in PA.

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    Omnium said:

    MikeL said:

    Famous last words but so far:

    There doesn't appear to be reports of voter intimidation.

    No Court actions appear to have been launched - the only thing that has happened is a Judge ordering an urgent sweep of post offices for any ballots to be delivered immediately.

    If you don't consider people being forced to queue for hours to cast a vote a form of intimidation.
    Once every four years you can stand in the cold and in the rain. I'd suspect many queuers actually liked the queue - a chance to chat to the neighbours you've never met.
    About politics? Not sure that's a good idea.
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    HYUFD said:

    Ed Balls done a straw poll in the North East of England for the One Show on the presidential election and was 50 50 Biden and Trump

    TV has to be impartial.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183
    Mal557 said:

    The latest data from Sumter puts GOP at less than 60% with turnout at 85%.

    Hmm.

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=sum

    Thats interesting as he got 69% there in 2016 and concensus seems to be he needs 66/67+ if he drops down low 60s hes in trouble in FL i think means the older voters may have deserted him a bit,. though that number you gave wont include the NPAs so he may well get a good chunk of them in that county
    The older deserters are still likely to be registered GOP I guess?
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    JACK_W said:

    Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida

    On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see

    so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated

    But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
    Good evening PBers .. :smiley:

    Indeed these tight swing states will be decided by the differential crossover vote and independents. The polling clearly indicates advantage Biden in both groups.

    My judgement is GOP for Biden 12.5% and Dem for Trump 7.5%. Independents 57.5/42.5 Biden.
    In which case, Biden is sitting pretty in FL in my book.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,163
    Andy_JS said:

    If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?

    Almost certainly. 99%.
    I'd say way less than 99% - look at the movement at the midterms. TX is moving Left, and FL isn't really moving at all.

    That being said, TX is a 30% chance for the Dems now. If they lose FL, it probably is only a 10% shot.

    (It also depends on *why* the Dems lose Florida. If they score big in the suburbs but lose due to oldies and Cuban Americans, then they still stand a good shout in Texas.)
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,008

    Right I am going to have a couple of hours at the pub ahead of the PB Zoom event.

    When are we getting details or have i missed it?

    At midnight
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,017
    Florida should be very easy for a republican incumbent president to win, all else being equal.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,549
    Nigelb said:

    LadyG said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I've started on the Perrier Jouet and soon I am off to eat oysters at Randall & Aubin, in Soho.

    If we must depart this world, let us do it with style
    I am a huge fan of their Belle Epoque. One of my all-time favourites along with Dom Perignon.

    Enjoy!

    (Cue the infantile comments that you and I are one and the same which ignores the equally compelling argument that writers are of a certain genre.)
    Nah, Sean was never good enough to sustain a character slightly different from himself.

    I guess people who buy something to read in a bus station aren't that fussy?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,012
    In Pinellas, registered Republicans are now 2,500 ahead, compared to 2,500 behind at close of play in 2016. That lead will grow, but will it be offset by Republicans and independents supporting Biden?
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    JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 651

    JACK_W said:

    Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida

    On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see

    so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated

    But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
    Good evening PBers .. :smiley:

    Indeed these tight swing states will be decided by the differential crossover vote and independents. The polling clearly indicates advantage Biden in both groups.

    My judgement is GOP for Biden 12.5% and Dem for Trump 7.5%. Independents 57.5/42.5 Biden.
    Good evening Jack.

    Can you share the latest outpourings of your ARSE?
    Good evening Anabobazina. Happy to. Posted last night. Biden 322/216 .. :smile: :

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,644
    edited November 2020
    36k cases, 854 deaths in France. Their testing and isolation system is legitimately terrible. As in a gigantic disaster zone where people can't book tests for love or money and isolation rates of symptomatic people who have tested positive in France is close to zero from the research one of my team has been doing.
This discussion has been closed.