Vienna gunman, 20, who killed four and wounded 17 was released early from prison on terror charges because of his age, had wanted to join ISIS in Syria - but 'was deemed incapable of an attack'
FFS this sums up European handling of the problem.
Had they tried to keep him in jail I can imagine all sorts of human rights lawyers taking the government to the cleaners.
You want to defend western democratic values against islamism by ripping up the rule of law, its very foundation?
You my friend may want to think that through.
I could have guessed that you would have supported releasing this bloke to allow him to go on a gun rampage.
I don't want to rip up the rule of law, I want the law changed to stop people like this getting released for a very long time before being deported.
Again, stop putting words in my mouth.
If you want to change the law that's fine, but stop whinging about "human rights lawyers" who are simply ensuring that the Government operates within the law as it currently is.
Why is it wrong to complain about lawyers using every trick to pervert the system?
How is that any different to complaining about aggressive tax avoidance?
Are lawyers perverting the system within the law any better than accountants doing the same?
If someone is lawfully avoiding paying taxes by their accountants using every trick in the book - or if someone is lawfully avoiding deportation by their lawyers using every trick in the book - should governments, campaigners and voters just accept that? Or should they identify the problem and look to fix it by closing the loopholes?
Because this isn't about money, this is about people's liberty.
People like @DAlexander are very quick to criticise but very slow to produce any actual solutions.
If you want to dis-apply the Human Rights Act to "terrorism" suspects you then are into the territory of what constitutes a "terrorist" - is it simply at the whim of the Government? The court? Are you comfortable that your human rights could be similarly taken away, almost on an arbitrary basis?
You may be comfortable with that but people like @DAlexander never want to discuss the hard questions.
The bloke tried to join ISIS, I think it's a fairly reasonable conclusion to draw that he should be behind bars.
Forever?
And please note I am not defending this bloke. I'm not defending him whatsoever. I am defending "human rights lawyers".
Until at the very least he's deemed no longer a danger to the public.
The problem isn't lawyers who get involved when there is a clear case of the law not being implemented correctly, but that isn't what happens. There are a group of human rights lawyers who target these particular cases and use every legal loophole and trick in the book to get them out of jail.
Isn't that exactly what happened in this case? He was deemed no longer a danger to the public.
See you don't actually have a solution at all. You just like to whine about "lefty human rights lawyers".
He was released early because of his age.
My solution for Islamic terrorists is jail and then deportation at the end of the sentence.
What about the 7/7 perpetrators. Where in Leeds or Bucks would you have deported them to?
Well for example Mohammad Sidique Khan could be deported back to Pakistan.
Surprised you didn't manage to work out that Mohammad Sidique Khan isn't a native English name.
That's got to be worth a sin-bin surely?
Mohammad Sidique Khan is one of the 7/7 bombers. I thought I'd add that context before Topping gets me banned.
That doesn't change the fact you want to deport a British citizen born in Britain because of his name. 🤦🏻♂️
This is getting ridiculous.
I wanted to deport him because he committed a terrorist act not because of his name.
But as someone has just pointed out...there's not much left of him to deport.
This game of trying to twist peoples' words so you can shout racist at them for instead of coming up with a reasonable counter-argument is incredibly tedious now.
Denmark are doing it, it's really not that outrageous. And maybe those people killed yesterday would still be alive now (not that actual real people matter when there's a chance to score points off people you don't know on the internet).
I posted the below on the previous thread in response to you @DAlexander However I suspect the post is pointless. I couple of days ago I challenged you and @contrarian to actually come out with what you really think about stuff. The pair of you are blatantly holding back on the keyboard but I think most of us can clearly see what your views really are on stuff, but it would be good to really hear it. I suspect most Conservatives on this site would not want to be associated with your views, but we don't really know until you tell us.
___________________________________
Where do you want to draw the line; parents, grandparents, great grandparents .... Are you going to deport people back to Normandy?
If a person is British they are British. It is of no relevance what their parents are/were.
Just to give you an example of how silly that is I have a friend whose father is Yugoslavian. She was born here and has never been to the Balkans, can't speak the language, has a Mancunian accent and is 66. What would you do with her? She is about as Yugoslavian as I am.
Oh and her name is unpronounceable (a lack of vowels) so clearly not British.
The solution is simple - there is nothing we can do to unpick the horrendous mistake of allowing mass immigration from Islamic countries to Europe, so we will have to put up with the consequences of it.
Education, education, education. The more educated people are the more clearly they can see the myths of organised religion contain many falsehoods and that the fundamentalist versions that seek to impose their versions on the rest of the world are extremely dangerous.
Telling them their culture is bad? That's punching down. Very bad....
Eh? We have freedom of speech and freedom of religion. I can say what I want, if others want to criticise me for it that's fine. Everyone has freedom of religion, that's fine too. I support a society where people are educated and are therefore less likely to support fundamentalist beliefs whether religious or political of any flavour. Nothing to do with "them".
Sounds like France, where people are getting their heads cut off for saying it
Yes France has got the right idea, but needs to do more on education and equality for it to work more quickly.
Western Europe had much higher levels of terrorism in the 1970s and comparable levels to now ever since then.
The difference is 24 hr international news, social media and camera phones making the problem seem much more important than it really is.
What were the terrorist incidents in the 70s? Save me looking it up
German Red Army Faction (Baader-Meinhof Gang), and whatever the Italian brigades were
And the Italian Facists.... Ordine Nero, had to look that up. ETA. A wee spot of bother in Northern Ireland. A whole smorgasbord of Palestinian and Iraniann terror cells.
In the late 50s/early 60s France nearly went to war with itself over Algeria.
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Once being caught without a mask or shaking somebodies hand is fair enough, it happens. But he has for the past 6 months willfully ignored the guidance and the rules on many occasions. I have come to the conclusion he just doesn't care.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
If zoe data is remotely close to being correct that R rate is now down to 1.0, a month of lockdown hopefully will really squish this down.
If Zoe data is correct, we didnt need the lockdown
I think we needed tier 3 to have these measures because in some areas there is a hospital crisis brewing and the current tier 3 measures aren't enough to bring the R down fast enough. There's no case for a national lockdown.
All of this is on the assumption that the government does nothing about isolation, of course which negates the need for pretty much all restrictions.
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Quite. It may be awful who people are focusing on him, but that's immaterial to whether hes done wrong or not. In fact it's a classic diversion tactic. And he was suspended for undermining the leader and party so his being a racist or not is not even of key relevance.
And he is an MP of prominence now, why should he be left alone? Hes not retired from politics hes still in the mix.
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Once being caught without a mask or shaking somebodies hand is fair enough, it happens. But he has for the past 6 months willfully ignored the guidance and the rules on many occasions. I have come to the conclusion he just doesn't care.
That's a recipe for absolutely nowt getting done for 4 years. With both sides stewing in resentments. Probably the single worst result possible for the USA.
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Once being caught without a mask or shaking somebodies hand is fair enough, it happens. But he has for the past 6 months willfully ignored the guidance and the rules on many occasions. I have come to the conclusion he just doesn't care.
Stalkers of the World unite Staines and Urquart
Hes a public figure, an MP, and still commands significant political attention. Why should his political opponents not still focus on him?
The 'leave him alone' defence of the man I find very strange and inexplicable. Those targeting him will overdo it and undermine the attacks when nothing is there.
That's a recipe for absolutely nowt getting done for 4 years. With both sides stewing in resentments. Probably the single worst result possible for the USA.
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Once being caught without a mask or shaking somebodies hand is fair enough, it happens. But he has for the past 6 months willfully ignored the guidance and the rules on many occasions. I have come to the conclusion he just doesn't care.
Stalkers of the World unite Staines and Urquart
So pointing out a prominent individual continually breaking the rules is stalking. So all the other MPs that have been caught out, we should just ignore them? Clearly Big Dom, we should never report that....we all have a duty to stick to the rules, but if you are in the public eye, even more so.
And as I said, he keeps bloody doing it. This isn't an isolated incident. I can only conclude that he doesn't really care and thinks the rules and recommendations don't apply to him.
Looked at Orange County - 59.8% Clinton, 35.8% Trump 2016
Actual votes 2016 - Clinton 329,894; Trump 195,216
Looking at the votes now, it is Dems 264,793; Reps 160,106, Unaffiliated 141,957
If you split unaffiliated 50/50, you get to Dems at just under 336K now and Reps at 231K. So Dems marginally ahead of 16 but Republicans significantly so
Also, so far, the Reps are leading the voting in day.
Obvious caveats around registration matching vote, splits of unaffiliated etc but gut feel more and more is that the Republicans will win Florida unless there have been less minute large crossovers or independents break heavily for Biden.
That does depend on independents breaking the same way as 2016, when the evidence is that in 2016 the majority went Republican, and this time they are more likely to go Democrat.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
If he does get Pennsylvania, he's also very likely to get all the others.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
If he does get Pennsylvania, he's also very likely to get all the others.
I see Smithson Jr is using a Baker's Half Dozen there.
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Quite. It may be awful who people are focusing on him, but that's immaterial to whether hes done wrong or not. In fact it's a classic diversion tactic. And he was suspended for undermining the leader and party so his being a racist or not is not even of key relevance.
And he is an MP of prominence now, why should he be left alone? Hes not retired from politics hes still in the mix.
He has been traduced by smears particularly from Staines and his disciples and it's time to let go. That's all. If it bothers you that much write him a letter.
Indeed. The 2 most favoured predictions are mirrored on here. Trump to squeak it, or Biden comfortably. The case for Biden just does not seem to have much currency. Literally.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
True, but he would still be reliant on randomness and local factors not breaking against him in each of the 6 other states.
That's a recipe for absolutely nowt getting done for 4 years. With both sides stewing in resentments. Probably the single worst result possible for the USA.
That's a recipe for absolutely nowt getting done for 4 years. With both sides stewing in resentments. Probably the single worst result possible for the USA.
Relax, it's Jeb Bush's campaign manager, who blew $130 million dollars and achieved little more for his candidate than national humiliation. He's not the guru you're looking for.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
True, but he would still be reliant on randomness and local factors not breaking against him in each of the 6 other states.
Yes. It doesn’t follow that Biden losing PA means he loses the election. But at this stage all the models would shift to making Trump the probable winner.
No idea of historic trends - ie whether many more people tend to vote early evening - but on the face of it the election day vote appears pretty modest so far.
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Quite. It may be awful who people are focusing on him, but that's immaterial to whether hes done wrong or not. In fact it's a classic diversion tactic. And he was suspended for undermining the leader and party so his being a racist or not is not even of key relevance.
And he is an MP of prominence now, why should he be left alone? Hes not retired from politics hes still in the mix.
He has been traduced by smears particularly from Staines and his disciples and it's time to let go. That's all. If it bothers you that much write him a letter.
He's staying at a good hotel a few miles along the road. If you want me to give him a message, let me know?
Looked at Orange County - 59.8% Clinton, 35.8% Trump 2016
Actual votes 2016 - Clinton 329,894; Trump 195,216
Looking at the votes now, it is Dems 264,793; Reps 160,106, Unaffiliated 141,957
If you split unaffiliated 50/50, you get to Dems at just under 336K now and Reps at 231K. So Dems marginally ahead of 16 but Republicans significantly so
Also, so far, the Reps are leading the voting in day.
Obvious caveats around registration matching vote, splits of unaffiliated etc but gut feel more and more is that the Republicans will win Florida unless there have been less minute large crossovers or independents break heavily for Biden.
That does depend on independents breaking the same way as 2016, when the evidence is that in 2016 the majority went Republican, and this time they are more likely to go Democrat.
You definitely dont split Unaf 50/50 in a County that is heavily Democrat or GOP for that matter. With logic like that Mr Ed is going to lose a lot of money if he is betting as he posts
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Quite. It may be awful who people are focusing on him, but that's immaterial to whether hes done wrong or not. In fact it's a classic diversion tactic. And he was suspended for undermining the leader and party so his being a racist or not is not even of key relevance.
And he is an MP of prominence now, why should he be left alone? Hes not retired from politics hes still in the mix.
He has been traduced by smears particularly from Staines and his disciples and it's time to let go. That's all. If it bothers you that much write him a letter.
He's staying at a good hotel a few miles along the road. If you want me to give him a message, let me know?
Any luck finding the laws yet? Not on this page afaics.
Vallance is as bad a politicians....the issue with the 4000 a day prediction wasn't the looking too far ahead, it was that you weren't using the latest data and model output that showed a significantly different result.
The UK government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, has defended presenting modelling to the public that suggested deaths could reach more than 4,000 a day if no action was taken.
Labour MP Graham Stringer suggested that without caveats this data could frighten people, who did not fully understand the context.
Sir Patrick said the aim was to give as much information as possible, not to frighten people but he acknowledged models looking further ahead were less reliable.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
Would a popular vote victory and a 6 million vote difference with 150 million turnout suggest Biden wins by 4%? Doesn't that break one of the rcs2000 rules?
And the obverse (of course) is therefore true. Biden:
Biden's Electoral College Vote
Favourite:
330-359 7/2
Second favourite: 240-269 5/1
I'm close to entering the spreads on Biden's EV share but just waiting to see if buy 311 comes down a little over the next few hours. What I could do with is some utterly spurious nonsense to spook the market! It has been known.
I think it was the Brexit vote, wasn't it, when you could still get astonishing odds right into the early hours - odds which defied everything the data was saying.
I think it's a good lesson. I understand jitters but the data is overwhelmingly backing Biden. This isn't 2016 when the momentum was the other direction.
No idea of historic trends - ie whether many more people tend to vote early evening - but on the face of it the election day vote appears pretty modest so far.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I've always thought all along PA would be where it was ultimately won or lost. I am still of that view.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
No idea of historic trends - ie whether many more people tend to vote early evening - but on the face of it the election day vote appears pretty modest so far.
My recollection is that voting is brisk-ish first thing, then not so much until later in the day with a rush after office hours. All bets are off in this election though - what with so much early voting, COVID, and many corporations giving employees time off to go vote. I'd be surprised if the usual % will leave it to the last minute as usual, but there are always some ...
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I've always thought all along PA would be where it was ultimately won or lost. I am still of that view.
Well I don't agree. For starters this year Pa. won't declare for days.
I will resist using the word normalcy and opt for recency. We only think Pennsylvania is crucial because it was last time. There will be other states which really land the sucker punches this time round. Florida and Georgia being good examples.
I’ve been asking to be matched on one of the Betfair POTUS markets to hopefully win £1k. The price is moving away from me so I may not get fully matched. So far I’ve been matched to win “£538”. Spooky!
Looked at Orange County - 59.8% Clinton, 35.8% Trump 2016
Actual votes 2016 - Clinton 329,894; Trump 195,216
Looking at the votes now, it is Dems 264,793; Reps 160,106, Unaffiliated 141,957
If you split unaffiliated 50/50, you get to Dems at just under 336K now and Reps at 231K. So Dems marginally ahead of 16 but Republicans significantly so
Also, so far, the Reps are leading the voting in day.
Obvious caveats around registration matching vote, splits of unaffiliated etc but gut feel more and more is that the Republicans will win Florida unless there have been less minute large crossovers or independents break heavily for Biden.
That does depend on independents breaking the same way as 2016, when the evidence is that in 2016 the majority went Republican, and this time they are more likely to go Democrat.
You definitely dont split Unaf 50/50 in a County that is heavily Democrat or GOP for that matter. With logic like that Mr Ed is going to lose a lot of money if he is betting as he posts
2016 was my best ever betting win.
I am on Biden at 1.73 but on Trump to get over 70m votes to offset the risk
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
Quite.
And realistically his national lead is more likely to be c. 7%.
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
That's what I thought.
But Betfair now has Florida at 2.24 for Biden from 2.44 earlier.
No idea of historic trends - ie whether many more people tend to vote early evening - but on the face of it the election day vote appears pretty modest so far.
7pm?!!!!! What’s wrong the US?
Another four years of Trump and voting will be restricted to one polling station for the entire state between 3am and 4am....
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
The one worry for me in this election has always been that Biden has made great inroads in those red seats like TX, GA, etc, but that this was skewing the national polls somewhat, hence the lower % in the state polling. Most of the swing states are within a 2 or 3% MoE swing for Trump to hold them. So no 'huge polling errors'. The only state that would really require a very bad polling error to sneak Trump home would be PA and 4-5% is possible in one state.
So the scenario of Biden wining the national vote by say 4%, double what Clinton did, and yet losing because of the above scenario for me is much greater than 10%. I don't hold with the Trafalgar nonsense about MI and WI being held. I dont believe those state polls are that wrong. But PA is closer and though I have Biden winning AZ and PA to get home, I can see how just one bad state poll error (PA) can make all the difference.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
The one worry for me in this election has always been that Biden has made great inroads in those red seats like TX, GA, etc, but that this was skewing the national polls somewhat, hence the lower % in the state polling. Most of the swing states are within a 2 or 3% MoE swing for Trump to hold them. So no 'huge polling errors'. The only state that would really require a very bad polling error to sneak Trump home would be PA and 4-5% is possible in one state.
So the scenario of Biden wining the national vote by say 4%, double what Clinton did, and yet losing because of the above scenario for me is much greater than 10%. I don't hold with the Trafalgar nonsense about MI and WI being held. I dont believe those state polls are that wrong. But PA is closer and though I have Biden winning AZ and PA to get home, I can see how just one bad state poll error (PA) can make all the difference.
When I meant swing states I meant all those bar MI and WI
No idea of historic trends - ie whether many more people tend to vote early evening - but on the face of it the election day vote appears pretty modest so far.
Fair point. Perhaps this is what is driving Trump's drift, because it possibly has implications for other states?
Vallance is as bad a politicians....the issue with the 4000 a day prediction wasn't the looking too far ahead, it was that you weren't using the latest data and model output that showed a significantly different result.
The UK government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, has defended presenting modelling to the public that suggested deaths could reach more than 4,000 a day if no action was taken.
Labour MP Graham Stringer suggested that without caveats this data could frighten people, who did not fully understand the context.
Sir Patrick said the aim was to give as much information as possible, not to frighten people but he acknowledged models looking further ahead were less reliable.
Aiui the model used for that 4k prediction actuall assumes no NPIs so effectively reversing all of the existing measures. It's completely ridiculous.
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
Current figures with 550k/711k cast (70.63% active eligible voters) are
Dem 190k GOP 188k NPA 114k
My guess is we have about 90k more votes to come. So it is all down to how the NPA splits (and cross-party voting, but my assumption after the amount or re-registration in FL since 2016 is that is a wash)
The mother of a friend of mine - high profile MP as was - showed his mother both facebook and twitter so that she could follow his activities and forbade her, on pain of a long and lingering death, from ever posting anything at all on either platform.
No idea of historic trends - ie whether many more people tend to vote early evening - but on the face of it the election day vote appears pretty modest so far.
Fair point. Perhaps this is what is driving Trump's drift, because it possibly has implications for other states?
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Quite. It may be awful who people are focusing on him, but that's immaterial to whether hes done wrong or not. In fact it's a classic diversion tactic. And he was suspended for undermining the leader and party so his being a racist or not is not even of key relevance.
And he is an MP of prominence now, why should he be left alone? Hes not retired from politics hes still in the mix.
He has been traduced by smears particularly from Staines and his disciples and it's time to let go. That's all. If it bothers you that much write him a letter.
He's staying at a good hotel a few miles along the road. If you want me to give him a message, let me know?
Any luck finding the laws yet? Not on this page afaics.
Unless they plan on blowing up a nuclear power station I can not be arsed with terrorism, we've got the pandemic and a potential second term of Trump to worry about, half-baked Islamist nutbags are small beer in comparison.
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
That's what I thought.
But Betfair now has Florida at 2.24 for Biden from 2.44 earlier.
My view as well.
See the earlier post on Orange County, which went strongly to Clinton. The Republican vote looks up.
I get @bigjohnowls point earlier re splitting UFAs but, if in 2016 they were more Republican and 2020 suggests more Dems, based on polling, hard to do it any other way than 50/50.
Unless they plan on blowing up a nuclear power station I can not be arsed with terrorism, we've got the pandemic and a potential second term of Trump to worry about, half-baked Islamist nutbags are small beer in comparison.
We survived the IRA and their associates, we can survive this.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I've always thought all along PA would be where it was ultimately won or lost. I am still of that view.
Well I don't agree. For starters this year Pa. won't declare for days.
I will resist using the word normalcy and opt for recency. We only think Pennsylvania is crucial because it was last time. There will be other states which really land the sucker punches this time round. Florida and Georgia being good examples.
And NC. Lot of EV votes there, at start of campaign wasn’t thought to be key but Biden the one with momentum in that state this week. I have NC more likely to flip than Florida. Though Florida is going Biden too.
You can be down in Georgia if you want, I’m happy to be in Carolina. Figuratively.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I've always thought all along PA would be where it was ultimately won or lost. I am still of that view.
Well I don't agree. For starters this year Pa. won't declare for days.
I will resist using the word normalcy and opt for recency. We only think Pennsylvania is crucial because it was last time. There will be other states which really land the sucker punches this time round. Florida and Georgia being good examples.
Show your working on FL! See also @Richard_Nabavi 's post just now!
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
But the other message is that the on the day vote so far in Pinellas, Broward and Palm Beach (the only counties we've looked at) is in all cases in the range of 6% to 8% of total vote.
OK it's early but on the face of it that doesn't suggest a high on the day vote.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
The one worry for me in this election has always been that Biden has made great inroads in those red seats like TX, GA, etc, but that this was skewing the national polls somewhat, hence the lower % in the state polling. Most of the swing states are within a 2 or 3% MoE swing for Trump to hold them. So no 'huge polling errors'. The only state that would really require a very bad polling error to sneak Trump home would be PA and 4-5% is possible in one state.
So the scenario of Biden wining the national vote by say 4%, double what Clinton did, and yet losing because of the above scenario for me is much greater than 10%. I don't hold with the Trafalgar nonsense about MI and WI being held. I dont believe those state polls are that wrong. But PA is closer and though I have Biden winning AZ and PA to get home, I can see how just one bad state poll error (PA) can make all the difference.
I agree. I've been saying for a few days that I think it's more like a 30% chance than a 10% one.
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Quite. It may be awful who people are focusing on him, but that's immaterial to whether hes done wrong or not. In fact it's a classic diversion tactic. And he was suspended for undermining the leader and party so his being a racist or not is not even of key relevance.
And he is an MP of prominence now, why should he be left alone? Hes not retired from politics hes still in the mix.
He has been traduced by smears particularly from Staines and his disciples and it's time to let go. That's all. If it bothers you that much write him a letter.
He's staying at a good hotel a few miles along the road. If you want me to give him a message, let me know?
Any luck finding the laws yet? Not on this page afaics.
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
It would be interesting to know the proportion of rep/dem affiliation in 2016
Unless they plan on blowing up a nuclear power station I can not be arsed with terrorism, we've got the pandemic and a potential second term of Trump to worry about, half-baked Islamist nutbags are small beer in comparison.
We survived the IRA and their associates, we can survive this.
Terrorist groups of the past were competent, and could count on various adversarial states for support in terms of training and materiel. Your 21st century home-grown lone wolf terrorist is probably less dangerous and competent than most members of a typical street gang.
Trump is out beyond 3 now – and has been sliding for a while. What is driving this?
There’s a lot of counting going on, not just voting, and a lot of observers out there. At what point is it already too late to be on the Biden landslide?
I suggest value in Senate bets. The Dems take the senate, but the value could be in better than expected.
Looked at Orange County - 59.8% Clinton, 35.8% Trump 2016
Actual votes 2016 - Clinton 329,894; Trump 195,216
Looking at the votes now, it is Dems 264,793; Reps 160,106, Unaffiliated 141,957
If you split unaffiliated 50/50, you get to Dems at just under 336K now and Reps at 231K. So Dems marginally ahead of 16 but Republicans significantly so
Also, so far, the Reps are leading the voting in day.
Obvious caveats around registration matching vote, splits of unaffiliated etc but gut feel more and more is that the Republicans will win Florida unless there have been less minute large crossovers or independents break heavily for Biden.
That does depend on independents breaking the same way as 2016, when the evidence is that in 2016 the majority went Republican, and this time they are more likely to go Democrat.
You definitely dont split Unaf 50/50 in a County that is heavily Democrat or GOP for that matter. With logic like that Mr Ed is going to lose a lot of money if he is betting as he posts
2016 was my best ever betting win.
I am on Biden at 1.73 but on Trump to get over 70m votes to offset the risk
I won big on Brexit - even got the 52/48 right and I won big on the 2015 GE. Both were with some great odds. My worst ever betting performance was last year's GE when I failed to study the polling and reports on the ground.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I've always thought all along PA would be where it was ultimately won or lost. I am still of that view.
Well I don't agree. For starters this year Pa. won't declare for days.
I will resist using the word normalcy and opt for recency. We only think Pennsylvania is crucial because it was last time. There will be other states which really land the sucker punches this time round. Florida and Georgia being good examples.
Show your working on FL! See also @Richard_Nabavi 's post just now!
It's correct to say FL, or GA or even TX could land the sucker punch. but my view has always been that Trump will hold all 3, narrowly yes but still hold them. On the other side I feel positive about Biden getting AZ , MI, and WI back, despite Mr Cahalys views. Which for me brings it all back to PA, however long that state takes to declare fully. So yes PA MIGHT not be important after all, my view is it will be. Early signs (from what other posters are seeing on the votes coming in) in FL suggest that Trump is doing pretty well. Again very early days but for me PA is looking more and more like it really will be the tipping state.
As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.
Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
You do have a penchant for crap sites pedalling even crapper stories. In brief Corbyn was photographed with someone who had re-posted a cartoon of Netanyahu. Wow!!!!
No he spent an hour with, which is breaking covid rules, yet again....and loads of other selfies with him, which again is breaking the rules. Like his brother, he just doesn't care about sticking to the rules, he continually does it from illegal funeral gatherings, dinner parties with too many people, etc etc etc
Be fascinating what this crazed antisemite and Jezza talked about for an hour.
Jezza was out every weekend freezing his bollocks off demonstating with the ANL. Meanwhile fat turds like Staines and Johnson were either ripping restaurants apart with the Bullingdon boys or doing fuck all. Its time for these armchair warriors to STFU. I say this as someone who believes he was the worst Labour leader for years. But he is not and never has been a racist so now he's out its time to leave him alone.
Lovely rant Rog. What's that got to do with him continually breaking the covid rules?
Quite. It may be awful who people are focusing on him, but that's immaterial to whether hes done wrong or not. In fact it's a classic diversion tactic. And he was suspended for undermining the leader and party so his being a racist or not is not even of key relevance.
And he is an MP of prominence now, why should he be left alone? Hes not retired from politics hes still in the mix.
He has been traduced by smears particularly from Staines and his disciples and it's time to let go. That's all. If it bothers you that much write him a letter.
He's staying at a good hotel a few miles along the road. If you want me to give him a message, let me know?
Any luck finding the laws yet? Not on this page afaics.
But we know from Lockdown One that key parts of the guidance don't find themselves into law.
Yep - I exercised 3x a day during Lockdown 1.0. Not prohibited in law (in England) but against the guidance.
The once a day exercise "rule" wasnt even guidance (in England), it was simply Michael Gove top of the head musings. Which as we have seen yet again today are completely useless.
Trump is out beyond 3 now – and has been sliding for a while. What is driving this?
There’s a lot of counting going on, not just voting, and a lot of observers out there. At what point is it already too late to be on the Biden landslide?
I suggest value in Senate bets. The Dems take the senate, but the value could be in better than expected.
No chance of a Biden Landslide 320 would be his maximum IMO
Too many narrow defeats.
He has to get 1 of the early counting marginals otherwise PA is in SCOTUS
Best thing to do with these terrorists is lock them up into isolation, throw away the key and then forget they exist. Three meals a day and no right to appeal.
Trump is out beyond 3 now – and has been sliding for a while. What is driving this?
There’s a lot of counting going on, not just voting, and a lot of observers out there. At what point is it already too late to be on the Biden landslide?
I suggest value in Senate bets. The Dems take the senate, but the value could be in better than expected.
Well if you really think landslide and you're ballsy then buy at 311 EVs on Spreadex.
I do think it will be a landslide BUT I'm not buying at that price.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
If Trump loses and Biden only wins narrowly I would certainly expect Trump to run again in 2024.
No other Republican would likely be able to beat him for the nomination and Harris would be an easier opponent for him than Biden and he could paint her as radical left in a way he could not do for the former Vice President, assuming Biden will be too old to run again.
It would take a Biden-Harris landslide of LBJ 1964 levels and Trump to face the worst GOP defeat since Goldwater for him to leave the scene even if defeated
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
"Dana Nessel, the attorney general of Michigan, revealed on Twitter her office has received reports of robocalls going to residents of Flint telling them they should vote Wednesday, November 4, "due to long lines.""
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I've always thought all along PA would be where it was ultimately won or lost. I am still of that view.
Well I don't agree. For starters this year Pa. won't declare for days.
I will resist using the word normalcy and opt for recency. We only think Pennsylvania is crucial because it was last time. There will be other states which really land the sucker punches this time round. Florida and Georgia being good examples.
Show your working on FL! See also @Richard_Nabavi 's post just now!
It's correct to say FL, or GA or even TX could land the sucker punch. but my view has always been that Trump will hold all 3, narrowly yes but still hold them. On the other side I feel positive about Biden getting AZ , MI, and WI back, despite Mr Cahalys views. Which for me brings it all back to PA, however long that state takes to declare fully. So yes PA MIGHT not be important after all, my view is it will be. Early signs (from what other posters are seeing on the votes coming in) in FL suggest that Trump is doing pretty well. Again very early days but for me PA is looking more and more like it really will be the tipping state.
Comments
Once being caught without a mask or shaking somebodies hand is fair enough, it happens. But he has for the past 6 months willfully ignored the guidance and the rules on many occasions. I have come to the conclusion he just doesn't care.
I have to agree. If Biden wins the PV by that margin but loses the EC then we have a big legitimacy problem in the States.
Or just a cautious hedging of bets perhaps.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
All of this is on the assumption that the government does nothing about isolation, of course which negates the need for pretty much all restrictions.
And he is an MP of prominence now, why should he be left alone? Hes not retired from politics hes still in the mix.
Probably the single worst result possible for the USA.
The 'leave him alone' defence of the man I find very strange and inexplicable. Those targeting him will overdo it and undermine the attacks when nothing is there.
And Squeaky Bum Time for the Trump over 70m
Biden over 75 million still ok even at 150m
I think it will be close to 160m so Biden over 75m is a great bet
And as I said, he keeps bloody doing it. This isn't an isolated incident. I can only conclude that he doesn't really care and thinks the rules and recommendations don't apply to him.
Favourite is
180-209 @6
Second favourite is
270-299 @6.6
Inbetween the two bands are 8.2 and 9.2
Trump to squeak it, or Biden comfortably. The case for Biden just does not seem to have much currency. Literally.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170366129
So we are now 4 hours into 12 hours of polling.
Broward: Election Day vote = 6% of total vote
Palm Beach: Election Day vote = 7% of total vote
No idea of historic trends - ie whether many more people tend to vote early evening - but on the face of it the election day vote appears pretty modest so far.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/coronavirus
The UK government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, has defended presenting modelling to the public that suggested deaths could reach more than 4,000 a day if no action was taken.
Labour MP Graham Stringer suggested that without caveats this data could frighten people, who did not fully understand the context.
Sir Patrick said the aim was to give as much information as possible, not to frighten people but he acknowledged models looking further ahead were less reliable.
Biden's Electoral College Vote
Favourite:
330-359 7/2
Second favourite: 240-269 5/1
I'm close to entering the spreads on Biden's EV share but just waiting to see if buy 311 comes down a little over the next few hours. What I could do with is some utterly spurious nonsense to spook the market!
I think it was the Brexit vote, wasn't it, when you could still get astonishing odds right into the early hours - odds which defied everything the data was saying.
I think it's a good lesson. I understand jitters but the data is overwhelmingly backing Biden. This isn't 2016 when the momentum was the other direction.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I will resist using the word normalcy and opt for recency. We only think Pennsylvania is crucial because it was last time. There will be other states which really land the sucker punches this time round. Florida and Georgia being good examples.
I am on Biden at 1.73 but on Trump to get over 70m votes to offset the risk
"Owing to technical difficulties, we have not received cases data for England. We will update the service as soon as possible."
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K
Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K
NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
And realistically his national lead is more likely to be c. 7%.
You heard it here
But Betfair now has Florida at 2.24 for Biden from 2.44 earlier.
https://twitter.com/Okwonga/status/1323650978156040192
So the scenario of Biden wining the national vote by say 4%, double what Clinton did, and yet losing because of the above scenario for me is much greater than 10%. I don't hold with the Trafalgar nonsense about MI and WI being held. I dont believe those state polls are that wrong. But PA is closer and though I have Biden winning AZ and PA to get home, I can see how just one bad state poll error (PA) can make all the difference.
Dem 190k
GOP 188k
NPA 114k
My guess is we have about 90k more votes to come. So it is all down to how the NPA splits (and cross-party voting, but my assumption after the amount or re-registration in FL since 2016 is that is a wash)
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november
But we know from Lockdown One that key parts of the guidance don't find themselves into law.
See the earlier post on Orange County, which went strongly to Clinton. The Republican vote looks up.
I get @bigjohnowls point earlier re splitting UFAs but, if in 2016 they were more Republican and 2020 suggests more Dems, based on polling, hard to do it any other way than 50/50.
You can be down in Georgia if you want, I’m happy to be in Carolina. Figuratively.
https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1323532759009128448
The data in FL does not look great for Biden at the moment. It could change but he would have to be worried.
Also, just reading the feeds, the Dems also look concerned re Black vote turnout.
OK it's early but on the face of it that doesn't suggest a high on the day vote.
At what point is it already too late to be on the Biden landslide?
I suggest value in Senate bets. The Dems take the senate, but the value could be in better than expected.
I'm very confident of a Biden win.
So yes PA MIGHT not be important after all, my view is it will be.
Early signs (from what other posters are seeing on the votes coming in) in FL suggest that Trump is doing pretty well. Again very early days but for me PA is looking more and more like it really will be the tipping state.
Too many narrow defeats.
He has to get 1 of the early counting marginals otherwise PA is in SCOTUS
I do think it will be a landslide BUT I'm not buying at that price.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
"Dana Nessel, the attorney general of Michigan, revealed on Twitter her office has received reports of robocalls going to residents of Flint telling them they should vote Wednesday, November 4, "due to long lines.""