I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
I was referring to using the "satisfaction rating." Trump doesn't have one. He's got a disapproval rating of something c. -5 to -12.
Quite something for an incumbent president. I think I'm right in saying he has had the worst approval rating of any president in history.
It did for Jimmy Carter and I strongly suspect it will do for Donald Trump.
Depends on intensity and (again) whether people vote for him despite being dissatisfied. Trump is the sort of person who disgusts many but who feel as though they need to hold their nose and vote for him
Look I'm sorry but that's just spurious sophistry.
Okay, so occasionally pollsters under-estimate but there isn't some spectral voting horde that no one can see until Aragorn comes along and commands them out from the mountain.
A point I made on several occasions here is that, when you go back to the 2016 Brexit voting, the polls were shifting in Leave's favour. Then Jo Cox was murdered and Remain led most of them. The most obvious explanation is people felt embarrassed about voting for Brexit.
Trump is that kind of figure.
Yep. The shy anti-Trumpers will make the difference.
Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.
Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle
Good for you for making a call.
I'm feeling the other way right now. On the day turnout does not look that high, and the Democrats have done a better job of voting earlier.
Pollsters broadly right, Biden national vote lead of at least six points, and maybe seven. MI, PA, WI all fall, plus at least one of the Southern states.
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
It isn't a proportional electoral system - neither is ours. I laugh loudly at Corbynite loons screeching about votes cast for Jezbollah vs his predecessors and make the exact same point. It isn't how many votes are cast nationwide, its how many are cast and where they are cast.
If America yet again has a President who loses the vote but wins the electoral college and wants to keep that system how is that a "tragedy for democracy". You get what you vote for, and regardless of who they vote for of whatever party they keep that system and keep partisan interference in elections and keep the rights of the gun owner over the right of kids not to get shot in the classroom and keep a healthcare system thats put to shame by Cuba.
If thats what they want in their own country who are we to argue? I don't want to live there and find the whole place a circus but its not my country to interfere in.
Surely the point is that most people in America *don't* want that, but the Electoral College silences them.
Its Congress who changes all that. If they wanted to change things then vote in Congress and Senate representatives pledged to do so.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I posted earlier a tweet from Michael Caley, the most left wing Democrat in the USA, saying that "anecdotal reports of high turnout have predicted 11 of the last 4 democratic landslides"
This sheet might be interesting for people following it through the night. He is an unpalatably smug, woke lefty, but I reckon he is pretty thorough in his data
I posted earlier a tweet from Michael Caley, the most left wing Democrat in the USA, saying that "anecdotal reports of high turnout have predicted 11 of the last 4 democratic landslides"
Eh?
I.e. the false positive to true positive ratio is 7/4
Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.
Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle
I can't see it that way myself. At best a dubious close EV win losing the PV. At worst I am £500* down, though sharp reverse ferreting on the night flipped that sort of loss into a modest gain in 2016.
The funniest thing about a Trump win will be seeing him have to sort out his own cesspit of debt. Tricky when held back by Congress too.
* I set myself that ballpark as an event limit for betting.
Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.
Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle
Good for you for making a call.
I'm feeling the other way right now. On the day turnout does not look that high, and the Democrats have done a better job of voting earlier.
Pollsters broadly right, Biden national vote lead of at least six points, and maybe seven. MI, PA, WI all fall, plus at least one of the Southern states.
If its the case that someone eg ordering a meal in advance can call up and order food and alcohol that is a reasonable compromise.
Maybe, but I'd have expected the rules to allow booze to be sold with a takeaway meal only, not if it's just the drinks.
Its possible to order from restaurants via apps like Deliveroo and get just booze delivered. I found it odd the idea that restaurants would lose the ability to sell alcohol takeaway - but from my reading of the law that was a misunderstanding and they're just stopping walk-up "takeaways" that are just glorified drinking outdoors?
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
I don't think its that weird. In 2016 when Trump won I was shocked and disappointed but also found it rather funny.
I kind of assumed he'd drop the white supremacist nonsense and tack to being more "normal" - I was wrong in that.
I pretty quickly stopped finding the idea of Trump as President as being funny. That joke isn't funny anymore and its well past time for him to go.
People who find it funny in a good way that Donald Trump holds the world's highest elected office are not quite the full package. They're missing a piece.
It depends on your sense of humour. If you have the kind of sense of humour that inspired the Devils Diictionary.....
viz - AMBITION, n. An overmastering desire to be vilified by enemies while living and made ridiculous by friends when dead.
No, that is sophisticated black humour a la Tom Lehrer and Gore Vidal.
Neither of those would be voting Trump for the belly laughs.
Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.
Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle
Good for you for making a call.
I'm feeling the other way right now. On the day turnout does not look that high, and the Democrats have done a better job of voting earlier.
Pollsters broadly right, Biden national vote lead of at least six points, and maybe seven. MI, PA, WI all fall, plus at least one of the Southern states.
Interesting James Naughtie has just said rather than shy Trump voters he has a feeling in his bones that the big surprise might be shy Republicans who will vote for Biden.
(I should say he tipped Buttigieg for the Dem nomination)
JUST IN: Florida has now reached 100% of 2016's voter turnout.
Impressive although the population of Florida has increased by about 1.5 million since the last election. There would probably have to be another half a million votes to reach the same percentage as last time, taking into account the population/electorate increase.
Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.
Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle
I can't see it that way myself. At best a dubious close EV win losing the PV. At worst I am £500* down, though sharp reverse ferreting on the night flipped that sort of loss into a modest gain in 2016.
The funniest thing about a Trump win will be seeing him have to sort out his own cesspit of debt. Tricky when held back by Congress too.
* I set myself that ballpark as an event limit for betting.
The funniest thing about a Trump loss will be seeing him have to sort out his own cesspit of debt.
Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.
Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle
Good for you for making a call.
I'm feeling the other way right now. On the day turnout does not look that high, and the Democrats have done a better job of voting earlier.
Pollsters broadly right, Biden national vote lead of at least six points, and maybe seven. MI, PA, WI all fall, plus at least one of the Southern states.
He was pulling our leg but I also took it is 'true' given his record of swapping from day to day, hour to hour.
JUST IN: Florida has now reached 100% of 2016's voter turnout.
Impressive although the population of Florida has increased by about 1.5 million since the last election. There would probably have to be another half a million votes to reach the same percentage as last time, taking into account the population/electorate increase.
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
It isn't a proportional electoral system - neither is ours. I laugh loudly at Corbynite loons screeching about votes cast for Jezbollah vs his predecessors and make the exact same point. It isn't how many votes are cast nationwide, its how many are cast and where they are cast.
If America yet again has a President who loses the vote but wins the electoral college and wants to keep that system how is that a "tragedy for democracy". You get what you vote for, and regardless of who they vote for of whatever party they keep that system and keep partisan interference in elections and keep the rights of the gun owner over the right of kids not to get shot in the classroom and keep a healthcare system thats put to shame by Cuba.
If thats what they want in their own country who are we to argue? I don't want to live there and find the whole place a circus but its not my country to interfere in.
Surely the point is that most people in America *don't* want that, but the Electoral College silences them.
Its Congress who changes all that. If they wanted to change things then vote in Congress and Senate representatives pledged to do so.
Democrats also usually win the popular vote in those elections, but then either gerrymandering (House) or rural bias (Senate) then comes into play. It's a rotten system.
JUST IN: Florida has now reached 100% of 2016's voter turnout.
Impressive although the population of Florida has increased by about 1.5 million since the last election. There would probably have to be another half a million votes to reach the same percentage as last time, taking into account the population/electorate increase.
To get to the same % of RV voting, FL needs to get to 12,562,989 votes
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
I don't think its that weird. In 2016 when Trump won I was shocked and disappointed but also found it rather funny.
I kind of assumed he'd drop the white supremacist nonsense and tack to being more "normal" - I was wrong in that.
I pretty quickly stopped finding the idea of Trump as President as being funny. That joke isn't funny anymore and its well past time for him to go.
People who find it funny in a good way that Donald Trump holds the world's highest elected office are not quite the full package. They're missing a piece.
It was funny in a slapstick, tragic way not in a good way.
I don't find it funny anymore and haven't for years but at first I did. In the same way it was funny to watch Sideshow Bob step on a rake repeatedly.
Yes, that's funny, but in a good way. And of course I often laugh at Trump. But not in a good way. Like you I've got more and more disgusted by him since 2016, but I perhaps started from a lower base in that I've had him down as a repulsive human being ever since the blatantly racist Obama "birther" conspiracy that he promoted.
But anyway, he's about to get the kicking he richly merits. USA! USA! USA!
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
I still have this lingering notion that anybody who is riled up by Trump enough to vote for Joe Biden has already cast their vote.
Everyone voting today is going out and voting for Trump
Democrat-leaners are sat in their favourite chair today, looking at their beer and saying to themselves
"Joe Biden? Joe-fucking-Biden.....?"
Remember this, when the results start coming in tonight.
I take it that means you are calling it for Trump.
Look, given the way Trump is an absolute figure of hate on the American left, if you have even a 0.000000001% of dying before polling day, you are going to vote early, to register your disapproval of him from beyond the grave. So anyone who has the vaguest chance of being killed by a cow falling from a Russian transport plane - they will have already cast their vote well before today.
Everybody else? Four more years of Trump - what's the worst that could happen? At least he's not Joe Biden....
What I would say if that, if you look only at the voting patterns in FL by party registration, you'd think Trump has a distinct advantage, and could if anything do better than last time. Conversely, the opinion polls point to the opposite conclusion. I was hoping that the voting patterns would provide independent corroborative evidence for the opinion polls, but I'm not finding it. That's not to say the opinion polls are wrong, but any improvement in Biden's position relative to 2016 has to come from registered Republicans and NPAs switching away from Trump to Biden, rather than from differential turnout of the party tribes.
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
Take-Away beer is allowed apparently...but only if...
Establishments will be able to legally sell alcohol to take away after all, if it’s preordered by phone, web or post, and provided that the purchaser does not enter the premises to collect it.
Dear Mr Weatherspoons,
I would like to order 10 pints of lager for collection on the 10th November...
In envelope, attach stamp and off to the post box.
From the name of the URL, may not be a totally unbiased source ...
It's scraping data from the Florida Secretary of State site so the data is fine.
That is based on every R voting R and every D voting D? Not saying that makes a big difference, it might or might not but assume there will be some variance in that figure
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
It isn't a proportional electoral system - neither is ours. I laugh loudly at Corbynite loons screeching about votes cast for Jezbollah vs his predecessors and make the exact same point. It isn't how many votes are cast nationwide, its how many are cast and where they are cast.
If America yet again has a President who loses the vote but wins the electoral college and wants to keep that system how is that a "tragedy for democracy". You get what you vote for, and regardless of who they vote for of whatever party they keep that system and keep partisan interference in elections and keep the rights of the gun owner over the right of kids not to get shot in the classroom and keep a healthcare system thats put to shame by Cuba.
If thats what they want in their own country who are we to argue? I don't want to live there and find the whole place a circus but its not my country to interfere in.
Surely the point is that most people in America *don't* want that, but the Electoral College silences them.
Its Congress who changes all that. If they wanted to change things then vote in Congress and Senate representatives pledged to do so.
Two thirds of each chamber AND three fourths of the states.
I still have this lingering notion that anybody who is riled up by Trump enough to vote for Joe Biden has already cast their vote.
Everyone voting today is going out and voting for Trump
Democrat-leaners are sat in their favourite chair today, looking at their beer and saying to themselves
"Joe Biden? Joe-fucking-Biden.....?"
Remember this, when the results start coming in tonight.
I take it that means you are calling it for Trump.
Look, given the way Trump is an absolute figure of hate on the American left, if you have even a 0.000000001% of dying before polling day, you are going to vote early, to register your disapproval of him from beyond the grave. So anyone who has the vaguest chance of being killed by a cow falling from a Russian transport plane - they will have already cast their vote well before today.
Everybody else? Four more years of Trump - what's the worst that could happen? At least he's not Joe Biden....
I sense a person projecting their own feelings and little else.
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
Charlotte Alter @CharlotteAlter Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways" 4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
Charlotte Alter @CharlotteAlter Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways" 4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
sl slightly different when you see that, shes saying Trump needs them we dont
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
I'm not sure it's a sign the Democrats are worried, it might help to get the vote out everywhere.
Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.
Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle
Good for you for making a call.
I'm feeling the other way right now. On the day turnout does not look that high, and the Democrats have done a better job of voting earlier.
Pollsters broadly right, Biden national vote lead of at least six points, and maybe seven. MI, PA, WI all fall, plus at least one of the Southern states.
Hey, that's slightly backing off your landslide call last w/end.
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
Charlotte Alter @CharlotteAlter Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways" 4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
Curious - Trump still moving out from 3 to 3.15, but coming in (in a thin market on Betfair) from 1.8 to 1.6 for Florida. If he's becoming less likely to win overall, I'd think he's less likely to win Florida too.
Take-Away beer is allowed apparently...but only if...
Establishments will be able to legally sell alcohol to take away after all, if it’s preordered by phone, web or post, and provided that the purchaser does not enter the premises to collect it.
Dear Mr Weatherspoons,
I would like to order 10 pints of lager for collection on the 10th November...
In envelope, attach stamp and off to the post box.
Just a neat phone app, pick up at the door, drink outside, job done.
Good news for those of use who like a few ales when walking on crisp autumn Saturdays.
Curious - Trump still moving out from 3 to 3.15, but coming in (in a thin market on Betfair) from 1.8 to 1.6 for Florida. If he's becoming less likely to win overall, I'd think he's less likely to win Florida too.
Hi Nick, I have noticed this.
I think the best explanation is turnout.
Lower OTD turnout is indicated by the FL returns. Lower OTD turnout might bring the likes of NC into the Dem column if repeated up there.
That's the EXACT mirror of 2016 if you adjust for faithless electors. And a touch too conservative for me. I want the landslide. I feel the landslide. I deduce the landslide. I've bet the landslide. Heart & Soul & Brain & Wallet aligned. That's rare.
Is it really election day or am I just dreaming? We seem to have been waiting for this day for so long.
The interminable wait for the US election to be over has, unwittingly, been made less interminable because the other major, sustained news story has stolen its thunder.
Curious - Trump still moving out from 3 to 3.15, but coming in (in a thin market on Betfair) from 1.8 to 1.6 for Florida. If he's becoming less likely to win overall, I'd think he's less likely to win Florida too.
Hi Nick, I have noticed this.
I think the best explanation is turnout.
Lower OTD turnout is indicated by the FL returns. Lower OTD turnout might bring the likes of NC into the Dem column if repeated up there.
Make sense?
But, it all could be noise.
Is it worth also asking how correlated the markets are? I.e. There must be more people with less idea of what they are doing betting on the over all market.
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
Charlotte Alter @CharlotteAlter Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways" 4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
I think Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump - the Biden leads there are just too big.
Older voters vote early , younger people later in the day . It’s hilarious to see some of the posts on twitter reading too much into the current turnout by party .
Older voters vote early , younger people later in the day . It’s hilarious to see some of the posts on twitter reading too much into the current turnout by party .
It's an election day tradition, right up there with excitement over throngs of people voting (even when we don't know if turnout is higher than usual).
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
Charlotte Alter @CharlotteAlter Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways" 4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
I think Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump - the Biden leads there are just too big.
Plenty of evidence in recent weeks that teh Trump campaign has reached the same conclusion - cancelling ads in Wisconsin, not many rallies in MI. They have essentially gone all in on PA which makes sense
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
Charlotte Alter @CharlotteAlter Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways" 4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
I think the two campaigns' focus on Pennsylvania tells us they each believe it is close, in a way that's not true of Wisconsin or Michigan.
Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
Charlotte Alter @CharlotteAlter Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways" 4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
I think Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump - the Biden leads there are just too big.
I agree with that , though Mr Cahaly might beg to differ!! Trump needs PA.
Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.
Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle
Good for you for making a call.
I'm feeling the other way right now. On the day turnout does not look that high, and the Democrats have done a better job of voting earlier.
Pollsters broadly right, Biden national vote lead of at least six points, and maybe seven. MI, PA, WI all fall, plus at least one of the Southern states.
Hey, that's slightly backing off your landslide call last w/end.
Stay with me!
True but at least he's changed out of his brown trousers.
That's the EXACT mirror of 2016 if you adjust for faithless electors. And a touch too conservative for me. I want the landslide. I feel the landslide. I deduce the landslide. I've bet the landslide. Heart & Soul & Brain & Wallet aligned. That's rare.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54267454
The shy anti-Trumpers will make the difference.
Of course, if Trump does pull off some horrendous surprise victory, I reserve the right to pretend this wasn't a joke. Hope that's clear.
Trump rampers tripping over themselves. Biden bedwetters, calling it for Trump, yet still some calm heads still following the polling.
I'm feeling the other way right now. On the day turnout does not look that high, and the Democrats have done a better job of voting earlier.
Pollsters broadly right, Biden national vote lead of at least six points, and maybe seven. MI, PA, WI all fall, plus at least one of the Southern states.
Everyone voting today is going out and voting for Trump
Democrat-leaners are sat in their favourite chair today, looking at their beer and saying to themselves
"Joe Biden? Joe-fucking-Biden.....?"
Remember this, when the results start coming in tonight.
The funniest thing about a Trump win will be seeing him have to sort out his own cesspit of debt. Tricky when held back by Congress too.
* I set myself that ballpark as an event limit for betting.
Neither of those would be voting Trump for the belly laughs.
(I should say he tipped Buttigieg for the Dem nomination)
https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323665756702363648
[That was incorrect]
GOP +0
DEM +10,000
UNA +11,000
On the day voting currently breaking slightly better than 2:1:1 in GOP favour, with nearly 29,000 GOP votes so far today.
Who knows?
Speculating is more likely to lead to uninformed overtrading which is unlikely to improve your positions.
*BUT*
There simply don't seem to be that many on the day votes in Florida, North Carolina, etc.
But anyway, he's about to get the kicking he richly merits. USA! USA! USA!
Everybody else? Four more years of Trump - what's the worst that could happen? At least he's not Joe Biden....
Establishments will be able to legally sell alcohol to take away after all, if it’s preordered by phone, web or post, and provided that the purchaser does not enter the premises to collect it.
Dear Mr Weatherspoons,
I would like to order 10 pints of lager for collection on the 10th November...
In envelope, attach stamp and off to the post box.
And cannot be as good as The Seventh Seal.
Trump 46,000
Clinton 50,000
Other 11,000
So even when Trump won the Independents split in favour of Clinton.
Charlotte Alter
@CharlotteAlter
Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
Stay with me!
A large poll lead is on its way
Georgia results will be fast.
Good news for those of use who like a few ales when walking on crisp autumn Saturdays.
Stormy Daniels' pseudonym in the NDA she signed with Trump was Peggy Peterson. Shortened throughout to 'PP'. Or, as said out loud, 'Pee-Pee'.
I think the best explanation is turnout.
Lower OTD turnout is indicated by the FL returns. Lower OTD turnout might bring the likes of NC into the Dem column if repeated up there.
Make sense?
But, it all could be noise.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1200/pdfs/uksi_20201200_en.pdf
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin
Fab.
[Ok, Ydoethur, off you go....]
Broward: Election Day vote = 8% of total vote
Palm Beach: 13%
Pinellas: 12%
So still no sign of a high election day vote in FL - though of course FL had a very high early vote (95% of 2016 total vote)
Another bad year for Red Walls?