of registered Republicans/Democrats/Other who would vote Biden/Trump to my estimates of the total numbers of voters of each registered type, I get 332K Biden, 260K Trump, which would be an 8+% shift to Biden compared with 2016. However, I'm a bit wary of such calculations because they are really just restating what the opinion poll reported.
Trump is out beyond 3 now – and has been sliding for a while. What is driving this?
There’s a lot of counting going on, not just voting, and a lot of observers out there. At what point is it already too late to be on the Biden landslide?
I suggest value in Senate bets. The Dems take the senate, but the value could be in better than expected.
No chance of a Biden Landslide 320 would be his maximum IMO
You may be right. However, I should point out that strictly speaking and according to the polls there is PLENTY of chance of Biden getting a landslide. Putting 'No chance' is hyperbole.
If the most recent reliable polls are correct then landslide is well within his reach.
Assuming 350 counts as a landslide.
No presidential candidate from either side has gone into an election with such a commanding average lead since Barack Obama in 2008, who won 365 EVs.
I hear all the scare stories of having to go hundreds of miles to get a test, but it bears no relation to the reality for myself and people I know, who have got tests the day after requested and the results within 36 hours.
It's far too early to make any actual solid predictions but one thing that the FL votes so far does suggest to me and I think someone else mentioned this. How many registered R voters and NPA voters swing away from Trump (simply because he's Trump) will go some way to deciding the overall result . How many that might be I have no idea at all
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
Yes, as in 2004 when an increase in turnout gave Bush II a popular vote win.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I've always thought all along PA would be where it was ultimately won or lost. I am still of that view.
Well I don't agree. For starters this year Pa. won't declare for days.
I will resist using the word normalcy and opt for recency. We only think Pennsylvania is crucial because it was last time. There will be other states which really land the sucker punches this time round. Florida and Georgia being good examples.
Show your working on FL! See also @Richard_Nabavi 's post just now!
It's correct to say FL, or GA or even TX could land the sucker punch. but my view has always been that Trump will hold all 3, narrowly yes but still hold them. On the other side I feel positive about Biden getting AZ , MI, and WI back, despite Mr Cahalys views. Which for me brings it all back to PA, however long that state takes to declare fully. So yes PA MIGHT not be important after all, my view is it will be. Early signs (from what other posters are seeing on the votes coming in) in FL suggest that Trump is doing pretty well. Again very early days but for me PA is looking more and more like it really will be the tipping state.
I think if Biden gets AZ, MI and WI, then the 2nd district of Nebraska would do as well as Pennsylvania, wouldn't it?
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
There will be a LOT of people on here screeching if that happens!
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I posted earlier a tweet from Michael Caley, the most left wing Democrat in the USA, saying that "anecdotal reports of high turnout have predicted 11 of the last 4 democratic landslides"
This sheet might be interesting for people following it through the night. He is an unpalatably smug, woke lefty, but I reckon he is pretty thorough in his data
It's far too early to make any actual solid predictions but one thing that the FL votes so far does suggest to me and I think someone else mentioned this. How many registered R voters and NPA voters swing away from Trump (simply because he's Trump) will go some way to deciding the overall result . How many that might be I have no idea at all
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
"Dana Nessel, the attorney general of Michigan, revealed on Twitter her office has received reports of robocalls going to residents of Flint telling them they should vote Wednesday, November 4, "due to long lines.""
Is that illegal? Any chance of those responsible being caught and thrown in the slammer?
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
It shows Trump getting 10% of registered Dem votes, and Biden getting 16% of registered Rep votes. Biden also winning NPAs 58-40. Crunching those numbers against your estimated end of day totals gives: Biden 318k Trump 284k.
The lesson I'd take is that we can be sure of basically nothing from turnout by party registration. So chill till they start actually counting the votes!
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I've always thought all along PA would be where it was ultimately won or lost. I am still of that view.
Well I don't agree. For starters this year Pa. won't declare for days.
I will resist using the word normalcy and opt for recency. We only think Pennsylvania is crucial because it was last time. There will be other states which really land the sucker punches this time round. Florida and Georgia being good examples.
Show your working on FL! See also @Richard_Nabavi 's post just now!
It's correct to say FL, or GA or even TX could land the sucker punch. but my view has always been that Trump will hold all 3, narrowly yes but still hold them. On the other side I feel positive about Biden getting AZ , MI, and WI back, despite Mr Cahalys views. Which for me brings it all back to PA, however long that state takes to declare fully. So yes PA MIGHT not be important after all, my view is it will be. Early signs (from what other posters are seeing on the votes coming in) in FL suggest that Trump is doing pretty well. Again very early days but for me PA is looking more and more like it really will be the tipping state.
I think if Biden gets AZ, MI and WI, then the 2nd district of Nebraska would do as well as Pennsylvania, wouldn't it?
Indeed, NE2 (or ME2) would be enough for Biden.
But if it is 270-268 or even 271-267 how nervous would everyone then be about faithless electors?
This site will be in absolute turmoil if Trump wins, I can imagine posters needing counselling for PTSD.
I will be mildly surprised, and deeply disappointed in the US public.
Me too. But it's not going to happen. America is not totally gone.
I would be very disappointed but not totally shocked. My projection is that Biden only wins narrowly(with 289) so it only takes one state to go the other way (PA in my projection) . Though Biden wining the NV by prob at least 4% of all votes cast would again show up the whole issue of the EV system far more than it did with Clinton. Farage would be insufferable for a while as well.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I've always thought all along PA would be where it was ultimately won or lost. I am still of that view.
Well I don't agree. For starters this year Pa. won't declare for days.
I will resist using the word normalcy and opt for recency. We only think Pennsylvania is crucial because it was last time. There will be other states which really land the sucker punches this time round. Florida and Georgia being good examples.
Show your working on FL! See also @Richard_Nabavi 's post just now!
It's correct to say FL, or GA or even TX could land the sucker punch. but my view has always been that Trump will hold all 3, narrowly yes but still hold them. On the other side I feel positive about Biden getting AZ , MI, and WI back, despite Mr Cahalys views. Which for me brings it all back to PA, however long that state takes to declare fully. So yes PA MIGHT not be important after all, my view is it will be. Early signs (from what other posters are seeing on the votes coming in) in FL suggest that Trump is doing pretty well. Again very early days but for me PA is looking more and more like it really will be the tipping state.
I think if Biden gets AZ, MI and WI, then the 2nd district of Nebraska would do as well as Pennsylvania, wouldn't it?
Indeed, NE2 (or ME2) would be enough for Biden.
But if it is 270-268 or even 271-267 how nervous would everyone then be about faithless electors?
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
The lesson I'd take is that we can be sure of basically nothing from turnout by party registration. So chill till they start actually counting the votes!
I remember last time there were websites galore trying to predict the result based on information gathered through the day. I don't think they were particularly accurate, although I could be misremembering.
Terrorism threat level to "severe" in UK - do they have intelligence or just looking at increased activity across Europe?
There is a theory that they are being carried out on the eve of lockdowns. I must admit I am worried about my girlfriend working in an inner city state school which has a demographic that is 100% one religion. I hope the schools get shut along with everything else
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
It isn't a proportional electoral system - neither is ours. I laugh loudly at Corbynite loons screeching about votes cast for Jezbollah vs his predecessors and make the exact same point. It isn't how many votes are cast nationwide, its how many are cast and where they are cast.
If America yet again has a President who loses the vote but wins the electoral college and wants to keep that system how is that a "tragedy for democracy". You get what you vote for, and regardless of who they vote for of whatever party they keep that system and keep partisan interference in elections and keep the rights of the gun owner over the right of kids not to get shot in the classroom and keep a healthcare system thats put to shame by Cuba.
If thats what they want in their own country who are we to argue? I don't want to live there and find the whole place a circus but its not my country to interfere in.
After dipping by 2 ECVs overnight, both Sporting and Spreadex are down another couple of points today at mid-spreads of 308 and 307 ECVs respectively. Nothing to get too excited about although they're both something like a dozen ECVs down from their recent highs.
If zoe data is remotely close to being correct that R rate is now down to 1.0, a month of lockdown hopefully will really squish this down.
If Zoe data is correct, we didnt need the lockdown
And if it's not, we could have ended up killing an awful lot of people.
Either way, we're at a very high level in a number of areas, with the virus spreading into the more vulnerable demographics, and a number of hospitals are already at surge capacity. We've got no flex for an upwards tick. If we didn't absolutely need it, it'll end up helping us reduce the level so we do have some flex for an upwards tick.
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
It shows Trump getting 10% of registered Dem votes, and Biden getting 16% of registered Rep votes. Biden also winning NPAs 58-40. Crunching those numbers against your estimated end of day totals gives: Biden 318k Trump 284k.
The lesson I'd take is that we can be sure of basically nothing from turnout by party registration. So chill till they start actually counting the votes!
1 in 6 R voters switching sounds very high to me despite Trumps marmite appeal. But then I dont know the history of those voters , could some be ones who switched from D to R and now moving back?
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
I don't think its that weird. In 2016 when Trump won I was shocked and disappointed but also found it rather funny.
I kind of assumed he'd drop the white supremacist nonsense and tack to being more "normal" - I was wrong in that.
I pretty quickly stopped finding the idea of Trump as President as being funny. That joke isn't funny anymore and its well past time for him to go.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I posted earlier a tweet from Michael Caley, the most left wing Democrat in the USA, saying that "anecdotal reports of high turnout have predicted 11 of the last 4 democratic landslides"
This sheet might be interesting for people following it through the night. He is an unpalatably smug, woke lefty, but I reckon he is pretty thorough in his data
I have to say the Pinellas county results don't look good for Biden. Figures reported as at 15:30, i.e. after 3.5 hours out of 12
Registered Republicans: Early and Mail 164.7K, On day: 21.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 76.5K, total 241K Registered Democrats: Early and Mail 179.6K, On day: 9.0K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 34.1K, total 214K NPA/Other: Early and Mail 109.7K, On day: 11.1K. Pro-rata for rest of day = 40.5K, total 150K
Compared with 2016, that's registered Republicans up by 31%, registered Dems by 10%. NPA and Others up 18%.
This is a county which Trump won by just over 1% last time.
OK, maybe Dems and others will vote later today in larger numbers than Republicans, and maybe a shed-load of Republicans and NPAs have shifted from Trump to Biden, but it's not exactly looking like Republicans are staying at home.
And if there are delays in reporting, that makes it even worse for Biden because the pro-rata on the day figure would be larger.
It shows Trump getting 10% of registered Dem votes, and Biden getting 16% of registered Rep votes. Biden also winning NPAs 58-40. Crunching those numbers against your estimated end of day totals gives: Biden 318k Trump 284k.
The lesson I'd take is that we can be sure of basically nothing from turnout by party registration. So chill till they start actually counting the votes!
This is key - for Florida and nationally. Biden to get more GOP votes than Trump will get Dems and to win more of the NPA vote.
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
I don't think its that weird. In 2016 when Trump won I was shocked and disappointed but also found it rather funny.
I kind of assumed he'd drop the white supremacist nonsense and tack to being more "normal" - I was wrong in that.
I pretty quickly stopped finding the idea of Trump as President as being funny. That joke isn't funny anymore and its well past time for him to go.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
No idea of historic trends - ie whether many more people tend to vote early evening - but on the face of it the election day vote appears pretty modest so far.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
I hear all the scare stories of having to go hundreds of miles to get a test, but it bears no relation to the reality for myself and people I know, who have got tests the day after requested and the results within 36 hours.
I think there was a genuine issue when the schools went back, and capacity didn't exceed demand by very much, but now it seems to be fine. No-one round here who needs a test has struggled, and the results are typically 36 hours.
One thing to consider in FL. One theory that Ralston supported in NV was that how an independent voted could be a good indicator of which way they would vote for by party. So, if you had independents who were heavy VBM users, that could indicate they were more likely to vote D than R given D's use of VBM.
Worth noting in FL that a lot of the UFAs are voting "like" Republicans i.e. less VBM, more IPEV and on the day voting.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
I was referring to using the "satisfaction rating." Trump doesn't have one. He's got a disapproval rating of something c. -5 to -12.
Quite something for an incumbent president. I think I'm right in saying he has had the worst approval rating of any president in history.
It did for Jimmy Carter and I strongly suspect it will do for Donald Trump.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I think that's broadly right, but I'd reframe it.
Biden has done a great job getting the early Democrat vote out. But the more voting there is on the day, the better it is for Trump.
My guess is that late voting won't be quite as much as people think: the numbers for one third of the Florida voting hours were 6% of 2016 turnout. If that carries through, there will be 18% of 2016 on the day against 94% before. If those are the final numbers (or thereabouts) then that's not good news for Trump.
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
I don't think its that weird. In 2016 when Trump won I was shocked and disappointed but also found it rather funny.
I kind of assumed he'd drop the white supremacist nonsense and tack to being more "normal" - I was wrong in that.
I pretty quickly stopped finding the idea of Trump as President as being funny. That joke isn't funny anymore and its well past time for him to go.
People who find it funny in a good way that Donald Trump holds the world's highest elected office are not quite the full package. They're missing a piece.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
I was referring to using the "satisfaction rating." Trump doesn't have one. He's got a disapproval rating of something c. -5 to -12.
Quite something for an incumbent president. I think I'm right in saying he has had the worst approval rating of any president in history.
It did for Jimmy Carter and I strongly suspect it will do for Donald Trump.
Depends on intensity and (again) whether people vote for him despite being dissatisfied. Trump is the sort of person who disgusts many but who feel as though they need to hold their nose and vote for him
No idea of historic trends - ie whether many more people tend to vote early evening - but on the face of it the election day vote appears pretty modest so far.
7pm?!!!!! What’s wrong the US?
As always it varies by state. Here in New York, polling is 6am to 9pm, so same number of hours as in the UK. And polling stations continue to process those in line at close until they've all voted.
In general the states that have shorter hours have long had early voting to compensate. We've only had early voting in New York since last year.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
I was referring to using the "satisfaction rating." Trump doesn't have one. He's got a disapproval rating of something c. -5 to -12.
Quite something for an incumbent president. I think I'm right in saying he has had the worst approval rating of any president in history.
It did for Jimmy Carter and I strongly suspect it will do for Donald Trump.
Depends on intensity and (again) whether people vote for him despite being dissatisfied. Trump is the sort of person who disgusts many but who feel as though they need to hold their nose and vote for him
Look I'm sorry but that's just spurious sophistry.
Okay, so occasionally pollsters under-estimate but there isn't some spectral voting horde that no one can see until Aragorn comes along and commands them out from the mountain.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
But they did
Which is what the pollsters assume. But there could be another leg up of votes (see rural votes in Nevada)
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
(Caveat: no-one knows shit.)
+1
Note, none of the main US election gurus and tea leaf readers are having live blog sessions parsing Broward and Pinellas numbers as they come in.
You have to consider that the latter is attractive both to those thinking Trump will manage to squeak back in, and those wanting to hedge their large Biden positions. It got down to 5.5 earlier today, which was nice (I unwound some of my position).
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
It isn't a proportional electoral system - neither is ours. I laugh loudly at Corbynite loons screeching about votes cast for Jezbollah vs his predecessors and make the exact same point. It isn't how many votes are cast nationwide, its how many are cast and where they are cast.
If America yet again has a President who loses the vote but wins the electoral college and wants to keep that system how is that a "tragedy for democracy". You get what you vote for, and regardless of who they vote for of whatever party they keep that system and keep partisan interference in elections and keep the rights of the gun owner over the right of kids not to get shot in the classroom and keep a healthcare system thats put to shame by Cuba.
If thats what they want in their own country who are we to argue? I don't want to live there and find the whole place a circus but its not my country to interfere in.
Surely the point is that most people in America *don't* want that, but the Electoral College silences them.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
I was referring to using the "satisfaction rating." Trump doesn't have one. He's got a disapproval rating of something c. -5 to -12.
Quite something for an incumbent president. I think I'm right in saying he has had the worst approval rating of any president in history.
It did for Jimmy Carter and I strongly suspect it will do for Donald Trump.
Depends on intensity and (again) whether people vote for him despite being dissatisfied. Trump is the sort of person who disgusts many but who feel as though they need to hold their nose and vote for him
Look I'm sorry but that's just spurious sophistry.
Okay, so occasionally pollsters under-estimate but there isn't some spectral voting horde that no one can see until Aragorn comes along and commands them out from the mountain.
A point I made on several occasions here is that, when you go back to the 2016 Brexit voting, the polls were shifting in Leave's favour. Then Jo Cox was murdered and Remain led most of them. The most obvious explanation is people felt embarrassed about voting for Brexit.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
I was referring to using the "satisfaction rating." Trump doesn't have one. He's got a disapproval rating of something c. -5 to -12.
Quite something for an incumbent president. I think I'm right in saying he has had the worst approval rating of any president in history.
It did for Jimmy Carter and I strongly suspect it will do for Donald Trump.
Depends on intensity and (again) whether people vote for him despite being dissatisfied. Trump is the sort of person who disgusts many but who feel as though they need to hold their nose and vote for him
Look I'm sorry but that's just spurious sophistry.
Okay, so occasionally pollsters under-estimate but there isn't some spectral voting horde that no one can see until Aragorn comes along and commands them out from the mountain.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I think that's broadly right, but I'd reframe it.
Biden has done a great job getting the early Democrat vote out. But the more voting there is on the day, the better it is for Trump.
My guess is that late voting won't be quite as much as people think: the numbers for one third of the Florida voting hours were 6% of 2016 turnout. If that carries through, there will be 18% of 2016 on the day against 94% before. If those are the final numbers (or thereabouts) then that's not good news for Trump.
(Caveat: no-one knows shit.)
I don't know the breakdown of voting numbers by time of day but surely the last 4 hours of voting time will be much heavier than the first? or even second ? so I'd expect way more than 6% certainly in the last few hours no?
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
I was referring to using the "satisfaction rating." Trump doesn't have one. He's got a disapproval rating of something c. -5 to -12.
Quite something for an incumbent president. I think I'm right in saying he has had the worst approval rating of any president in history.
It did for Jimmy Carter and I strongly suspect it will do for Donald Trump.
Depends on intensity and (again) whether people vote for him despite being dissatisfied. Trump is the sort of person who disgusts many but who feel as though they need to hold their nose and vote for him
Look I'm sorry but that's just spurious sophistry.
Okay, so occasionally pollsters under-estimate but there isn't some spectral voting horde that no one can see until Aragorn comes along and commands them out from the mountain.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I've no idea how you compute that. Trump's disapproval rating is significant for an incumbent president.
Unless of course you're using Trafalgar group, in which case ...meh
It would be that white non-college voters turn out this time when they didn't last time.
I was referring to using the "satisfaction rating." Trump doesn't have one. He's got a disapproval rating of something c. -5 to -12.
Quite something for an incumbent president. I think I'm right in saying he has had the worst approval rating of any president in history.
It did for Jimmy Carter and I strongly suspect it will do for Donald Trump.
Depends on intensity and (again) whether people vote for him despite being dissatisfied. Trump is the sort of person who disgusts many but who feel as though they need to hold their nose and vote for him
Look I'm sorry but that's just spurious sophistry.
Okay, so occasionally pollsters under-estimate but there isn't some spectral voting horde that no one can see until Aragorn comes along and commands them out from the mountain.
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
I don't think its that weird. In 2016 when Trump won I was shocked and disappointed but also found it rather funny.
I kind of assumed he'd drop the white supremacist nonsense and tack to being more "normal" - I was wrong in that.
I pretty quickly stopped finding the idea of Trump as President as being funny. That joke isn't funny anymore and its well past time for him to go.
People who find it funny in a good way that Donald Trump holds the world's highest elected office are not quite the full package. They're missing a piece.
It depends on your sense of humour. If you have the kind of sense of humour that inspired the Devils Diictionary.....
viz - AMBITION, n. An overmastering desire to be vilified by enemies while living and made ridiculous by friends when dead.
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
It will be a tragedy for democracy but you will laugh.
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
I don't think its that weird. In 2016 when Trump won I was shocked and disappointed but also found it rather funny.
I kind of assumed he'd drop the white supremacist nonsense and tack to being more "normal" - I was wrong in that.
I pretty quickly stopped finding the idea of Trump as President as being funny. That joke isn't funny anymore and its well past time for him to go.
People who find it funny in a good way that Donald Trump holds the world's highest elected office are not quite the full package. They're missing a piece.
It was funny in a slapstick, tragic way not in a good way.
I don't find it funny anymore and haven't for years but at first I did. In the same way it was funny to watch Sideshow Bob step on a rake repeatedly.
If Biden wins the popular vote by 6m+ and loses the election I will wee myself laughing. Its the same as our system - the national vote doesn't count for anything if you pile your vote up in safe seats / states and narrowly miss others.
There will be a LOT of people on here screeching if that happens!
On the plus side, you'd be able to laugh at the sap who just lost a million quid bet....
This site will be in absolute turmoil if Trump wins, I can imagine posters needing counselling for PTSD.
I will be mildly surprised, and deeply disappointed in the US public.
Me too. But it's not going to happen. America is not totally gone.
I would be very disappointed but not totally shocked. My projection is that Biden only wins narrowly(with 289) so it only takes one state to go the other way (PA in my projection) . Though Biden wining the NV by prob at least 4% of all votes cast would again show up the whole issue of the EV system far more than it did with Clinton. Farage would be insufferable for a while as well.
I'm nervous of course but I'm feeling strong about this. 12m PV margin for Biden. 10m at the very least. That must be a clear win in the EC. It takes a distribution beyond freakish to prevent it.
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I think that's broadly right, but I'd reframe it.
Biden has done a great job getting the early Democrat vote out. But the more voting there is on the day, the better it is for Trump.
My guess is that late voting won't be quite as much as people think: the numbers for one third of the Florida voting hours were 6% of 2016 turnout. If that carries through, there will be 18% of 2016 on the day against 94% before. If those are the final numbers (or thereabouts) then that's not good news for Trump.
(Caveat: no-one knows shit.)
I don't know the breakdown of voting numbers by time of day but surely the last 4 hours of voting time will be much heavier than the first? or even second ? so I'd expect way more than 6% certainly in the last few hours no?
Americans do seem to close the polling stations early, so not so much opportunity for evening voting on the day as the UK.
Busy day at work, and evening clinic ahead still before popping a cork for election drinkies.
I find the chicken entrails substitute of assessing polling queues as a rather poor substitute for authentic entrails in forecasting!
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I think that's broadly right, but I'd reframe it.
Biden has done a great job getting the early Democrat vote out. But the more voting there is on the day, the better it is for Trump.
My guess is that late voting won't be quite as much as people think: the numbers for one third of the Florida voting hours were 6% of 2016 turnout. If that carries through, there will be 18% of 2016 on the day against 94% before. If those are the final numbers (or thereabouts) then that's not good news for Trump.
(Caveat: no-one knows shit.)
I don't know the breakdown of voting numbers by time of day but surely the last 4 hours of voting time will be much heavier than the first? or even second ? so I'd expect way more than 6% certainly in the last few hours no?
Americans do seem to close the polling stations early, so not so much opportunity for evening voting on the day as the UK.
Busy day at work, and evening clinic ahead still before popping a cork for election drinkies.
I find the chicken entrails substitute of assessing polling queues as a rather poor substitute for authentic entrails in forecasting!
Having grown up in Cyprus, coffee dregs are still my preferred mode of forecasting ...
I think he's right to have the Dems picking up Wisconsin and Michigan.
The issue for the President is that he then needs to pick up every one of half a dozen other states: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa.
And I don't think he gets lucky twice.
But Robert. They are related contingencies. If Trump wins PA then on Nate Silver’s model he becomes odds on for the Presidency. He becomes favourite in Arizona and a shorter favourite than he already is in the other 5 states. As you’ve said yourself, if the polls are wrong they are likely to be consistently wrong in the same direction.
I completely understand related contingencies. But I'm also working on the theory that the national polls are not completely off. That means I'm assuming that Biden ends up with a minimum four point national vote share lead.
Now, it's theoretically possible his votes could be so inefficiently spread that he loses with a four point lead. But it's not likely.
I think the assumption that high turnout benefits Biden may be wrong. Put simply, if the polls are right about Trump’s satisfaction rating and they all turn out to vote, then he wins. It’s a mistake to see 2016 as his high-water mark.
I posted earlier a tweet from Michael Caley, the most left wing Democrat in the USA, saying that "anecdotal reports of high turnout have predicted 11 of the last 4 democratic landslides"
This sheet might be interesting for people following it through the night. He is an unpalatably smug, woke lefty, but I reckon he is pretty thorough in his data
I posted earlier a tweet from Michael Caley, the most left wing Democrat in the USA, saying that "anecdotal reports of high turnout have predicted 11 of the last 4 democratic landslides"
Comments
OTOH, if I apply the percentages in this poll:
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_Pinellas_November2_I6EUB.pdf
of registered Republicans/Democrats/Other who would vote Biden/Trump to my estimates of the total numbers of voters of each registered type, I get 332K Biden, 260K Trump, which would be an 8+% shift to Biden compared with 2016. However, I'm a bit wary of such calculations because they are really just restating what the opinion poll reported.
If the most recent reliable polls are correct then landslide is well within his reach.
Assuming 350 counts as a landslide.
No presidential candidate from either side has gone into an election with such a commanding average lead since Barack Obama in 2008, who won 365 EVs.
Not me, Not you. That's the data talking.
This sheet might be interesting for people following it through the night. He is an unpalatably smug, woke lefty, but I reckon he is pretty thorough in his data
https://twitter.com/MC_of_A/status/1323609538919124992?s=20
As I say, weird person.
Still, that's what I have been predicting all along.
It shows Trump getting 10% of registered Dem votes, and Biden getting 16% of registered Rep votes. Biden also winning NPAs 58-40.
Crunching those numbers against your estimated end of day totals gives:
Biden 318k
Trump 284k.
The lesson I'd take is that we can be sure of basically nothing from turnout by party registration. So chill till they start actually counting the votes!
https://twitter.com/rajanbasra/status/1323640442735353857?s=20
But if it is 270-268 or even 271-267 how nervous would everyone then be about faithless electors?
Farage would be insufferable for a while as well.
The smirk makes me uncomfortable
If America yet again has a President who loses the vote but wins the electoral college and wants to keep that system how is that a "tragedy for democracy". You get what you vote for, and regardless of who they vote for of whatever party they keep that system and keep partisan interference in elections and keep the rights of the gun owner over the right of kids not to get shot in the classroom and keep a healthcare system thats put to shame by Cuba.
If thats what they want in their own country who are we to argue? I don't want to live there and find the whole place a circus but its not my country to interfere in.
Nothing to get too excited about although they're both something like a dozen ECVs down from their recent highs.
Either way, we're at a very high level in a number of areas, with the virus spreading into the more vulnerable demographics, and a number of hospitals are already at surge capacity. We've got no flex for an upwards tick. If we didn't absolutely need it, it'll end up helping us reduce the level so we do have some flex for an upwards tick.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/bbc-issues-apology-to-priti-patel-60014
I kind of assumed he'd drop the white supremacist nonsense and tack to being more "normal" - I was wrong in that.
I pretty quickly stopped finding the idea of Trump as President as being funny. That joke isn't funny anymore and its well past time for him to go.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oKDtFjbFrRalTgsZFC_NbUPHRQtL2FpM6iMCBluHI7k/edit#gid=0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Rc0eKDEx9Q
Florida:
Reg Dem lead reg Rep by 115k (3,548k - 3,432k)
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article111982322.html
Trump won the 2020 Florida GOP primary with 94% of the vote!
One thing to consider in FL. One theory that Ralston supported in NV was that how an independent voted could be a good indicator of which way they would vote for by party. So, if you had independents who were heavy VBM users, that could indicate they were more likely to vote D than R given D's use of VBM.
Worth noting in FL that a lot of the UFAs are voting "like" Republicans i.e. less VBM, more IPEV and on the day voting.
It might be wrong but point to consider
Quite something for an incumbent president. I think I'm right in saying he has had the worst approval rating of any president in history.
It did for Jimmy Carter and I strongly suspect it will do for Donald Trump.
Biden has done a great job getting the early Democrat vote out. But the more voting there is on the day, the better it is for Trump.
My guess is that late voting won't be quite as much as people think: the numbers for one third of the Florida voting hours were 6% of 2016 turnout. If that carries through, there will be 18% of 2016 on the day against 94% before. If those are the final numbers (or thereabouts) then that's not good news for Trump.
(Caveat: no-one knows shit.)
Dem - 84%
Rep - 74%
+1
In general the states that have shorter hours have long had early voting to compensate. We've only had early voting in New York since last year.
Okay, so occasionally pollsters under-estimate but there isn't some spectral voting horde that no one can see until Aragorn comes along and commands them out from the mountain.
It got down to 5.5 earlier today, which was nice (I unwound some of my position).
Trump is that kind of figure.
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin
Total Early Vote as % of Registered Voters:
FL Total - 64.5%
Miami-Dade - 63.1%
Broward - 63.3%
Palm Beach - 59.0%
Pinellas - 61.2%
Winning the GOP primary means the square-root of SFA
viz - AMBITION, n. An overmastering desire to be vilified by enemies while living and made ridiculous by friends when dead.
I don't find it funny anymore and haven't for years but at first I did. In the same way it was funny to watch Sideshow Bob step on a rake repeatedly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRq1Ksh-32g
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1323665670974939136
If its the case that someone eg ordering a meal in advance can call up and order food and alcohol that is a reasonable compromise.
Doesn't look good for Trump, especially if unaffiliated break more for Biden.
Gop: 193000
Dem: 183000
Una: 107000
For an end result of
TRUMP: 239000ish
CLINTON: 233000ish
Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.
Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle
Busy day at work, and evening clinic ahead still before popping a cork for election drinkies.
I find the chicken entrails substitute of assessing polling queues as a rather poor substitute for authentic entrails in forecasting!
Eh?
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/