This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
This is so utterly stupid on the part of the Government.
Interesting election result in Virginia yesterday - Republicans took hold of a City council in an area that had voted for Hillary in 2016 on a turnout that more than doubled since the last election (17000 vs 7000). Commentators putting it down to a major backlash against both the CV lockdown measures by Virginia's Dem Governor plus recent legislation on gun control and abortion,
I know a fair few on here were sceptical of the idea the Republicans would ever take Virginia in November but, if this is the spike in turnout they are getting for a city election, it suggests their base is massively fired up
Against Biden I expect Trump to do slightly worse than he did v Hillary in white working class areas and the Midwest and rustbelt but better than he did v Hillary in wealthy upper middle class areas like suburban Virginia and Orange County, California.
Plus as you say Trump's core vote remains fired up for him
Turnout will be key, which is why Joe Biden's "you ain't black" comment is particularly unfortunate. In states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia, if the Black vote doesn't come out to vote for Biden, hard to see him regaining these states.
Ps delete the regain Virginia comment
Hover your cursor top right of the offending post till a settings icon appears, then click to get the option of editing, in the next 3 minutes and you can delete it yourself.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
That is the Times' expectation rather than Sunaks announcement, presumably briefed by the Treasury to float the idea and gauge reaction.
In the end I think the furlough scheme will continue as is (or very close to) for businesses mandated to be closed. (That may come after complaints from sectors rather than in this weeks announcement).
It is very likely a moot point, restaurants and cafes will almost certainly be allowed to open in some form by August, in most of Europe they already are now including countries with similar outbreaks to us.
Im not really sure what businesses would be banned from opening by August, although of course there will be plenty severely handicapped by new rules.
I think the bookies recognise that Cummings could easily resign any second now and don’t want to get caught out by insider knowledge. So Shadsy has suspended Ladbrokes market and PP/BF prices are up and down like a yo-yo to, I suspect, mostly limited stakes.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
I would wait to see more detail.
Rishi is switched on and I expect he will assess each sector of the economy on needs
Businesses need to make plans. My daughter has to talk to her landlord about the rent by the end of June. How can she do that when she doesn’t know whether and when she can reopen and what the furlough situation will be?
She has to assume continued closure and having to make up employees’ wages out of non-existent income. There are rules on trading while insolvent to consider as well. So closure looms.
And, btw, August is too late. Most of the season will have gone by then.
This sort of faffing about and statements made without any regard for what it means to people trying to make a living as what you get when you have rich out of touch politicians who have no understanding of - or willingness to learn about - what it is like to run a small business or, indeed, any sort of business at all.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
I don't give a toss what party a person belongs to or supports. It is what they do or don't do that counts. How can you be so partisan?
The person who upvoted your comment campaigned passionately for an anti-semite to become Prime Minister, so that kind of answers your question.
I assume you mean by upvoted you mean liked. I have no control over who likes my comments (although pleased to get them), but how on earth does that affect the logic of the post. I repeat it does not matter what party a person belongs to, what matters is whether they did wrong or not.
Starsports has a market on who will grasp this afternoon's lectern.
Dominic Raab 3/1 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 9/2 Robert Jenrick 5/1 George Eustice 6/1 Boris Johnson 10/1 Michael Gove 10/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1
Starsports has a market on who will grasp this afternoon's lectern.
Dominic Raab 3/1 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 9/2 Robert Jenrick 5/1 George Eustice 6/1 Boris Johnson 10/1 Michael Gove 10/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1
Boris Johnson might actually be the value bet. If Dominic Cummings is resigned this afternoon, he'll probably take the lectern. That's probably better than a 10/1 shot.
Boris will probably officially fire him but keep him on and then re-appoint him in a matter of weeks. This, I'm afraid, is part of Johnson's weakness as a PM. It's a shame because I believe he could flourish on his own two feet.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
I don't give a toss what party a person belongs to or supports. It is what they do or don't do that counts. How can you be so partisan?
The person who upvoted your comment campaigned passionately for an anti-semite to become Prime Minister, so that kind of answers your question.
I assume you mean by upvoted you mean liked. I have no control over who likes my comments (although pleased to get them), but how on earth does that affect the logic of the post. I repeat it does not matter what party a person belongs to, what matters is whether they did wrong or not.
You're most welcome, I thought it was an excellent post.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
I remember your daughter being alternately incandescent with fury and tears when it was first suggested that people avoid pubs.
Perhaps you should wait until you get the full details this time.
Plus an acceptance that things might have changed permanently and there will be long term changes in the economy with, unfortunate as it is, people who lose out.
Starsports has a market on who will grasp this afternoon's lectern.
Dominic Raab 3/1 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 9/2 Robert Jenrick 5/1 George Eustice 6/1 Boris Johnson 10/1 Michael Gove 10/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1
Boris Johnson might actually be the value bet. If Dominic Cummings is resigned this afternoon, he'll probably take the lectern. That's probably better than a 10/1 shot.
Is it a political meeting, a PR meeting, or are there a bunch of lawyers in the room?
You can have a political meeting with a bunch of lawyers in the room. In Washington, where I've done business before, every other participant is usually a lawyer.
It's not that bad here yet, but it's moving that way.
Starsports has a market on who will grasp this afternoon's lectern.
Dominic Raab 3/1 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 9/2 Robert Jenrick 5/1 George Eustice 6/1 Boris Johnson 10/1 Michael Gove 10/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1
Boris Johnson might actually be the value bet. If Dominic Cummings is resigned this afternoon, he'll probably take the lectern. That's probably better than a 10/1 shot.
You've moved the market 6/1 Boris; Raab out to 7/2; Sunak in at 40/1
Dominic Raab 7/2 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 5/1 Robert Jenrick 5/1 Boris Johnson 6/1 George Eustice 6/1 Michael Gove 8/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1 Rishi Sunak 40/1
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
That is the Times' expectation rather than Sunaks announcement, presumably briefed by the Treasury to float the idea and gauge reaction.
In the end I think the furlough scheme will continue as is (or very close to) for businesses mandated to be closed. (That may come after complaints from sectors rather than in this weeks announcement).
It is very likely a moot point, restaurants and cafes will almost certainly be allowed to open in some form by August, in most of Europe they already are now including countries with similar outbreaks to us.
Im not really sure what businesses would be banned from opening by August, although of course there will be plenty severely handicapped by new rules.
What rules? Social distancing and 2 metres are nowhere in any rules. Is the government really going to make it illegal to stand or sit closer than 2 metres to someone? Or to make it the legal responsibility of every organization in the country to keep people apart?
They are even more stupid than I thought if this is their intention.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
I would wait to see more detail.
Rishi is switched on and I expect he will assess each sector of the economy on needs
Businesses need to make plans. My daughter has to talk to her landlord about the rent by the end of June. How can she do that when she doesn’t know whether and when she can reopen and what the furlough situation will be?
She has to assume continued closure and having to make up employees’ wages out of non-existent income. There are rules on trading while insolvent to consider as well. So closure looms.
And, btw, August is too late. Most of the season will have gone by then.
This sort of faffing about and statements made without any regard for what it means to people trying to make a living as what you get when you have rich out of touch politicians who have no understanding of - or willingness to learn about - what it is like to run a small business or, indeed, any sort of business at all.
Re talking to the landlord, most small businesses should be pushing for significant rent reductions, ours generously offered 50% reduction til end of June. That is unlikely to be achievable for most small businesses, but the landlords who dont show flexibility now could find the next couple of years very tricky.
Is it a political meeting, a PR meeting, or are there a bunch of lawyers in the room?
You can have a political meeting with a bunch of lawyers in the room. In Washington, where I've done business before, every other participant is usually a lawyer.
It's not that bad here yet, but it's moving that way.
Starsports has a market on who will grasp this afternoon's lectern.
Dominic Raab 3/1 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 9/2 Robert Jenrick 5/1 George Eustice 6/1 Boris Johnson 10/1 Michael Gove 10/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1
Boris Johnson might actually be the value bet. If Dominic Cummings is resigned this afternoon, he'll probably take the lectern. That's probably better than a 10/1 shot.
Surely if Cummings went, the focus would immediately shift to "What/when did Boris know?"
Dom has got to go, the second trip is unacceptable.
Has that now been confirmed? Shapps said that didn’t happen.
I thought Shapps had denied the third trip, and had not commented on the second.
No, Shapps said he didn’t know about whether Cummings was in Barnard Castle on 12 April (i.e. before he returned to London), though he noted that was after the 14 days of quarantine.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
This is so utterly stupid on the part of the Government.
Another 'not thought through' idea. What is, of course, especially tough on the hospitality industry in such areas as The Lakes is that the majority of profit is made in August. June and July pay the bills, then August's takings provide the 'surplus. Yes, of course people go at other times, but the bulk of the trade is those three months. That used to be the case when I worked in such an area, anyway. For any pedants, I'm including Whitsun in June.
What on earth are the press photographers doing around Cummings this morning.
They came together nearly falling over each other. Cummings is the news story but the press are as bad on this occasion with utter disregard for covid requirements
What on earth are the press photographers doing around Cummings this morning.
They came together nearly falling over each other. Cummings is the news story but the press are as bad on this occasion with utter disregard for covid requirements
Starsports has a market on who will grasp this afternoon's lectern.
Dominic Raab 3/1 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 9/2 Robert Jenrick 5/1 George Eustice 6/1 Boris Johnson 10/1 Michael Gove 10/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1
Boris Johnson might actually be the value bet. If Dominic Cummings is resigned this afternoon, he'll probably take the lectern. That's probably better than a 10/1 shot.
You've moved the market 6/1 Boris; Raab out to 7/2; Sunak in at 40/1
Dominic Raab 7/2 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 5/1 Robert Jenrick 5/1 Boris Johnson 6/1 George Eustice 6/1 Michael Gove 8/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1 Rishi Sunak 40/1
Boris cut further to 5/1 as the army of @AlastairMeeks followers jams the phones.
What on earth are the press photographers doing around Cummings this morning.
They came together nearly falling over each other. Cummings is the news story but the press are as bad on this occasion with utter disregard for covid requirements
One rule for the press, and another rule for everyone else?
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
I would wait to see more detail.
Rishi is switched on and I expect he will assess each sector of the economy on needs
Businesses need to make plans. My daughter has to talk to her landlord about the rent by the end of June. How can she do that when she doesn’t know whether and when she can reopen and what the furlough situation will be?
She has to assume continued closure and having to make up employees’ wages out of non-existent income. There are rules on trading while insolvent to consider as well. So closure looms.
And, btw, August is too late. Most of the season will have gone by then.
This sort of faffing about and statements made without any regard for what it means to people trying to make a living as what you get when you have rich out of touch politicians who have no understanding of - or willingness to learn about - what it is like to run a small business or, indeed, any sort of business at all.
No matter what they do and no matter what the cause, this govt will be remembered for the economic and social disaster to come - whether such attribution is justified or not.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
That is the Times' expectation rather than Sunaks announcement, presumably briefed by the Treasury to float the idea and gauge reaction.
In the end I think the furlough scheme will continue as is (or very close to) for businesses mandated to be closed. (That may come after complaints from sectors rather than in this weeks announcement).
It is very likely a moot point, restaurants and cafes will almost certainly be allowed to open in some form by August, in most of Europe they already are now including countries with similar outbreaks to us.
Im not really sure what businesses would be banned from opening by August, although of course there will be plenty severely handicapped by new rules.
What rules? Social distancing and 2 metres are nowhere in any rules. Is the government really going to make it illegal to stand or sit closer than 2 metres to someone? Or to make it the legal responsibility of every organization in the country to keep people apart?
They are even more stupid than I thought if this is their intention.
Restaurants have a max capacity and at a guess that will initially be reduced to 20-30% of what it was before?
Businesses have a duty of care to customers, that is not going away, so firms will have to take reasonable precautions. Id imagine doing what most others are doing will be seen as reasonable. So look at whats happening in European countries now seems the best way to find out what may be required.
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
The lockdown is already over.
What we still have is a partial shutdown.
Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.
Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.
That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
I've had coronavirus. So I'm almost certainly immune. I won't be exposing myself to a potentially fatal disease.
Am I now allowed to do what the hell I like?
I wondered why we hadn't seen you. Sorry to hear you've been ill, glad to hear you've recovered. Another organist of my acquaintance here in S. Staffs had it pretty badly as well but otherwise as far as I know all acquaintances have been unaffected. Think that may be a function of where I live.
Thanks!
My suspicion is that we'll be back in church later this summer but with no singing permitted, and with many of the oldies (who are of course most of the congregation) staying away. I've been trying to fit my fingers round some Howells so I have something new to play when I get back...
Starsports has a market on who will grasp this afternoon's lectern.
Dominic Raab 3/1 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 9/2 Robert Jenrick 5/1 George Eustice 6/1 Boris Johnson 10/1 Michael Gove 10/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1
Boris Johnson might actually be the value bet. If Dominic Cummings is resigned this afternoon, he'll probably take the lectern. That's probably better than a 10/1 shot.
Surely if Cummings went, the focus would immediately shift to "What/when did Boris know?"
All the more important for him to be at the lectern today, so that he can point out that he was in hospital when all this happened and while it's needed tidying up now, he hopes it is recognised how important public confidence in government is.
Dom has got to go, the second trip is unacceptable.
Has that now been confirmed? Shapps said that didn’t happen.
I thought Shapps had denied the third trip, and had not commented on the second.
No, Shapps said he didn’t know about whether Cummings was in Barnard Castle on 12 April (i.e. before he returned to London), though he noted that was after the 14 days of quarantine.
Yes, that's what I meant.
Cummings is alleged to have broken the law on three occasions: (1) Going to Durham on the weekend of 28-29 March (2) Going to Barnard Castle on 12 April (3) Going to Durham again by 19 April.
What on earth are the press photographers doing around Cummings this morning.
They came together nearly falling over each other. Cummings is the news story but the press are as bad on this occasion with utter disregard for covid requirements
Their hypocrisy eloquently reveals that they don't give two shits about the health implications at all - it's the scalp they want.
I think the bookies recognise that Cummings could easily resign any second now and don’t want to get caught out by insider knowledge. So Shadsy has suspended Ladbrokes market and PP/BF prices are up and down like a yo-yo to, I suspect, mostly limited stakes.
This is the time when a market maker would have a convenient power outage / sub sandwich sauce on computer incident.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
I would wait to see more detail.
Rishi is switched on and I expect he will assess each sector of the economy on needs
Businesses need to make plans. My daughter has to talk to her landlord about the rent by the end of June. How can she do that when she doesn’t know whether and when she can reopen and what the furlough situation will be?
She has to assume continued closure and having to make up employees’ wages out of non-existent income. There are rules on trading while insolvent to consider as well. So closure looms.
And, btw, August is too late. Most of the season will have gone by then.
This sort of faffing about and statements made without any regard for what it means to people trying to make a living as what you get when you have rich out of touch politicians who have no understanding of - or willingness to learn about - what it is like to run a small business or, indeed, any sort of business at all.
Re talking to the landlord, most small businesses should be pushing for significant rent reductions, ours generously offered 50% reduction til end of June. That is unlikely to be achievable for most small businesses, but the landlords who dont show flexibility now could find the next couple of years very tricky.
She will ask for the rent to be waived while the business is closed or reduced by the same percentage as turnover has been reduced if it reopens. But if the landlord won’t be accommodating then he will be getting no rent at all. Fat chance of getting a replacement tenant these days. Or of selling an empty property.
Even decent houses round here take an age to sell in normal times.
The pity of it all is that my daughter has lots of ideas about how she can get the business up and running again, new ideas to try etc. But she does need some temporary help to transition from closure to that. Instead what she sees is a lack of clarity, confusion, very unhelpful statements and a lack of understanding.
She despairs - I am not overstating this. I have not seen her so down as in the last few days. And given what else has been happening in our family you can understand my concerns.
Starsports has a market on who will grasp this afternoon's lectern.
Dominic Raab 3/1 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 9/2 Robert Jenrick 5/1 George Eustice 6/1 Boris Johnson 10/1 Michael Gove 10/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1
Boris Johnson might actually be the value bet. If Dominic Cummings is resigned this afternoon, he'll probably take the lectern. That's probably better than a 10/1 shot.
Surely if Cummings went, the focus would immediately shift to "What/when did Boris know?"
All the more important for him to be at the lectern today, so that he can point out that he was in hospital when all this happened and while it's needed tidying up now, he hopes it is recognised how important public confidence in government is.
He wasn't in hospital when most of it happened, though. The first trip was a week before he went into hospital. The third trip was a week after he was discharged.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
I would wait to see more detail.
Rishi is switched on and I expect he will assess each sector of the economy on needs
Businesses need to make plans. My daughter has to talk to her landlord about the rent by the end of June. How can she do that when she doesn’t know whether and when she can reopen and what the furlough situation will be?
She has to assume continued closure and having to make up employees’ wages out of non-existent income. There are rules on trading while insolvent to consider as well. So closure looms.
And, btw, August is too late. Most of the season will have gone by then.
This sort of faffing about and statements made without any regard for what it means to people trying to make a living as what you get when you have rich out of touch politicians who have no understanding of - or willingness to learn about - what it is like to run a small business or, indeed, any sort of business at all.
Official statements have been made regularly giving updates as soon as they are ready.
Newspapers and the 24/7 news media need constant stories for their sales even when there is no news so they speculate and dress it up as news.
Ignore the closed chip shop wrappings and pay attention to the actual announcements. There should be another formal statement on next steps next week. There'll be much speculation between now and then but it's the announcement that is all that really matters.
PS I agree 100% that businesses that rely upon the Spring/Summer season are particularly screwed this year. Businesses that rely upon Christmas are much luckier.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
I would wait to see more detail.
Rishi is switched on and I expect he will assess each sector of the economy on needs
Businesses need to make plans. My daughter has to talk to her landlord about the rent by the end of June. How can she do that when she doesn’t know whether and when she can reopen and what the furlough situation will be?
She has to assume continued closure and having to make up employees’ wages out of non-existent income. There are rules on trading while insolvent to consider as well. So closure looms.
And, btw, August is too late. Most of the season will have gone by then.
This sort of faffing about and statements made without any regard for what it means to people trying to make a living as what you get when you have rich out of touch politicians who have no understanding of - or willingness to learn about - what it is like to run a small business or, indeed, any sort of business at all.
Re talking to the landlord, most small businesses should be pushing for significant rent reductions, ours generously offered 50% reduction til end of June. That is unlikely to be achievable for most small businesses, but the landlords who dont show flexibility now could find the next couple of years very tricky.
She will ask for the rent to be waived while the business is closed or reduced by the same percentage as turnover has been reduced if it reopens. But if the landlord won’t be accommodating then he will be getting no rent at all. Fat chance of getting a replacement tenant these days. Or of selling an empty property.
Even decent houses round here take an age to sell in normal times.
The pity of it all is that my daughter has lots of ideas about how she can get the business up and running again, new ideas to try etc. But she does need some temporary help to transition from closure to that. Instead what she sees is a lack of clarity, confusion, very unhelpful statements and a lack of understanding.
She despairs - I am not overstating this. I have not seen her so down as in the last few days. And given what else has been happening in our family you can understand my concerns.
I really do understand and uncertainty is nerve racking
I think the bookies recognise that Cummings could easily resign any second now and don’t want to get caught out by insider knowledge. So Shadsy has suspended Ladbrokes market and PP/BF prices are up and down like a yo-yo to, I suspect, mostly limited stakes.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
I don't give a toss what party a person belongs to or supports. It is what they do or don't do that counts. How can you be so partisan?
The person who upvoted your comment campaigned passionately for an anti-semite to become Prime Minister, so that kind of answers your question.
I assume you mean by upvoted you mean liked. I have no control over who likes my comments (although pleased to get them), but how on earth does that affect the logic of the post. I repeat it does not matter what party a person belongs to, what matters is whether they did wrong or not.
You're most welcome, I thought it was an excellent post.
Thank you that is very kind of you. You do realise though that (see my earlier posts) I will now be called a 'leftie' again because you liked my post.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
That is the Times' expectation rather than Sunaks announcement, presumably briefed by the Treasury to float the idea and gauge reaction.
In the end I think the furlough scheme will continue as is (or very close to) for businesses mandated to be closed. (That may come after complaints from sectors rather than in this weeks announcement).
It is very likely a moot point, restaurants and cafes will almost certainly be allowed to open in some form by August, in most of Europe they already are now including countries with similar outbreaks to us.
Im not really sure what businesses would be banned from opening by August, although of course there will be plenty severely handicapped by new rules.
What rules? Social distancing and 2 metres are nowhere in any rules. Is the government really going to make it illegal to stand or sit closer than 2 metres to someone? Or to make it the legal responsibility of every organization in the country to keep people apart?
They are even more stupid than I thought if this is their intention.
Restaurants have a max capacity and at a guess that will initially be reduced to 20-30% of what it was before?
Businesses have a duty of care to customers, that is not going away, so firms will have to take reasonable precautions. Id imagine doing what most others are doing will be seen as reasonable. So look at whats happening in European countries now seems the best way to find out what may be required.
Businesses now don’t have a duty of care to stop someone with flu or some other infectious disease coming in or making them sit 2 metres away from others. And in the majority of other European countries 1 metre is adopted not 2 metres.
No business can survive on 20-30% of previous turnover. If that is what expected the government may as well pay compensation now to those businesses forced to close so that their owners can use the money to do something else.
On a purely partisan view, watching the Tories piss through loads of political capital on Dom Cummings foolishness would be enjoyable, but on a "doesn't want to watch the country get fucked" view, it's highly annoying.
It does show that the way the partisans close ranks regardless of what the issue is or level of guilt when feeling threatened isn't just unique to the Labour partisans, many of whom we saw doggedly dig in for Corbyn over antisemitism. On the grounds that showing weakness would be dangerous for them.
We're watching the same thing with loads of Tory activists. The brighter ones are aghast because they know the level of damage that can be sustained when you too obviously hold the people in contempt.
And too many people are unable to see anything other than through the prism of Brexit. The Lib Dems learned to their cost last December that most people aren't, in fact, obsessive about Brexit. Those who are, though, have to see everything in terms of it, which is why you're getting people insisting that no, all this is because of Remainers or Brexit or something other than an unelected arrogant SpAd smashing quarantine for himself and his family while the little people were required to struggle through.
And it's cut through. I've kept hearing people who've previously been saying "I've been saying the Government are trying to get through a very difficult time; we should give them our support" come out with outright rants about "This Cummings person" and "One rule for us, another for them" and "Surely he's got to go?"
Personally, I think if he doesn't go today or tomorrow morning by the latest, I want the Tories to keep him on. Let them own it. I've seen Lib Dems convinced that the tuition fees thing will have died down long before the 2015 election, Labourites certain that Corbyn's latest misstep won't be held against them, and I remember Back to Basics with the Tories in the Nineties. All next week's chip papers, right?
People remember the stench of hypocrisy. They remember the strong narratives. Associate Cummings with this and you've got a great story on any deaths or cockups over handling the pandemic. And if you think that the pandemic will be forgotten soon, you're even more overoptimistic than any of those Lib Dems about tuition fees or Labourites about antisemitism.
The instinct when tribalists are under pressure is to fall back to the Millwall Defence: "Fuck off, I'm Millwall, what can you do about it?" Great for signalling loyalty to the in-group and making yourself feel better. Not so good when you've got to convince millions outside the in-group that you speak for them and represent them.
Starsports has a market on who will grasp this afternoon's lectern.
Dominic Raab 3/1 Grant Shapps 7/2 Alok Sharma 9/2 Robert Jenrick 5/1 George Eustice 6/1 Boris Johnson 10/1 Michael Gove 10/1 Gavin Williamson 12/1 Oliver Dowden 12/1 Amanda Milling 14/1 Matthew Hancock 16/1 Priti Patel 16/1
Boris Johnson might actually be the value bet. If Dominic Cummings is resigned this afternoon, he'll probably take the lectern. That's probably better than a 10/1 shot.
Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker is the only tory MP I would not piss on if he were allergic to piss.
That means he's the only one you like?
'Like' is a bit strong - he is a tory after all. But the record will show my longstanding acknowledgment of the intellectual coherence and honesty of his Brexit position. He is also not a chickenhawk and likes motorbikes.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
I would wait to see more detail.
Rishi is switched on and I expect he will assess each sector of the economy on needs
Businesses need to make plans. My daughter has to talk to her landlord about the rent by the end of June. How can she do that when she doesn’t know whether and when she can reopen and what the furlough situation will be?
She has to assume continued closure and having to make up employees’ wages out of non-existent income. There are rules on trading while insolvent to consider as well. So closure looms.
And, btw, August is too late. Most of the season will have gone by then.
This sort of faffing about and statements made without any regard for what it means to people trying to make a living as what you get when you have rich out of touch politicians who have no understanding of - or willingness to learn about - what it is like to run a small business or, indeed, any sort of business at all.
Re talking to the landlord, most small businesses should be pushing for significant rent reductions, ours generously offered 50% reduction til end of June. That is unlikely to be achievable for most small businesses, but the landlords who dont show flexibility now could find the next couple of years very tricky.
She will ask for the rent to be waived while the business is closed or reduced by the same percentage as turnover has been reduced if it reopens. But if the landlord won’t be accommodating then he will be getting no rent at all. Fat chance of getting a replacement tenant these days. Or of selling an empty property.
Even decent houses round here take an age to sell in normal times.
The pity of it all is that my daughter has lots of ideas about how she can get the business up and running again, new ideas to try etc. But she does need some temporary help to transition from closure to that. Instead what she sees is a lack of clarity, confusion, very unhelpful statements and a lack of understanding.
She despairs - I am not overstating this. I have not seen her so down as in the last few days. And given what else has been happening in our family you can understand my concerns.
Yes of course I understand and empathise, lockdown is stressful and emotional for everyone, and even more so for those suffering bereavement and worrying about their business.
But from a practical point of view, despair wont help, its great she is negotiating with the landlord and coming up with ideas. She will probably be able to reopen early July which will come sooner than it feels.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
I don't give a toss what party a person belongs to or supports. It is what they do or don't do that counts. How can you be so partisan?
The person who upvoted your comment campaigned passionately for an anti-semite to become Prime Minister, so that kind of answers your question.
I assume you mean by upvoted you mean liked. I have no control over who likes my comments (although pleased to get them), but how on earth does that affect the logic of the post. I repeat it does not matter what party a person belongs to, what matters is whether they did wrong or not.
You're most welcome, I thought it was an excellent post.
Thank you that is very kind of you. You do realise though that (see my earlier posts) I will now be called a 'leftie' again because you liked my post.
Let them call you whatever they want. You know you're decent and honourable.
Has been sheer delight reading the comments this morning.
Cummings is the effective PM, so *if* he goes, it will be a significant hit to the government.
No independent observer thinks Boris has the focus or stamina to actually lead the country. He will be mortally wounded by a Cummings ouster, hence the desperation to keep him so far.
The real news of course is that Cummings-Vallance, either with Boris’s conscious or unconscious approval - ignored the mounting evidence from abroad and dissent from others on NERVTAG or SAGE to prevent an early lockdown.
Until public opinion forced them to U-turn, by which time, sadly, tens of thousands of deaths were unavoidable.
The government accidentally let many, mostly elderly, people suffocate to death.
Boris and the government know this of course which is why they come across as so deflated and twitchy.
Meanwhile, Brexit policy remains unchanged. The government assumes we won’t notice the sclerotic recovery from COVID caused by the retreat of investment from export industries.
Of the three great trading blocs, China is looking politically less viable, we are committed to mutual destruction in our relations with the EU, and Trump/US will be looking at us like meat on a platter.
The global institutions that a services-focused entity with free trade aspirations needs to underpin global trade flows also look to be in permanent decline.
Interesting to read Baker this morning confess that he and the hardliners were hoodwinked into accepting a trade border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
That is the Times' expectation rather than Sunaks announcement, presumably briefed by the Treasury to float the idea and gauge reaction.
In the end I think the furlough scheme will continue as is (or very close to) for businesses mandated to be closed. (That may come after complaints from sectors rather than in this weeks announcement).
It is very likely a moot point, restaurants and cafes will almost certainly be allowed to open in some form by August, in most of Europe they already are now including countries with similar outbreaks to us.
Im not really sure what businesses would be banned from opening by August, although of course there will be plenty severely handicapped by new rules.
What rules? Social distancing and 2 metres are nowhere in any rules. Is the government really going to make it illegal to stand or sit closer than 2 metres to someone? Or to make it the legal responsibility of every organization in the country to keep people apart?
They are even more stupid than I thought if this is their intention.
Restaurants have a max capacity and at a guess that will initially be reduced to 20-30% of what it was before?
Businesses have a duty of care to customers, that is not going away, so firms will have to take reasonable precautions. Id imagine doing what most others are doing will be seen as reasonable. So look at whats happening in European countries now seems the best way to find out what may be required.
Businesses now don’t have a duty of care to stop someone with flu or some other infectious disease coming in or making them sit 2 metres away from others. And in the majority of other European countries 1 metre is adopted not 2 metres.
No business can survive on 20-30% of previous turnover. If that is what expected the government may as well pay compensation now to those businesses forced to close so that their owners can use the money to do something else.
20-30% of capacity is completely different to 20-30% turnover.
Instead of 60 people turning up between 12 & 1.30 for lunch whenever they like to, restaurants might need to run lunch for up to 15 at pre booked staggered times from 11.30, 12.30, 1.30 to get 45 in.
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
The lockdown is already over.
What we still have is a partial shutdown.
Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.
Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.
That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
The shocking thing about Cummings is that his actions exposed other to a lethal risk, probably his parents....I don't believe the crap that he went to see his sister only
The story I saw was that they were self isolating in a different part of the house. Chillingham (his father in laws house) could definitely accommodate that, so I suspect his parents could as well
" At the Downing Street press briefing on Thursday, Matt Hancock announced that “around 17% of people in London… have tested positive for coronavirus antibodies” based on “the results of our antibody surveillance study...
Stop Press: I put in a call to the Department of Health and Social Care to try and find out a bit more about this data and have been told it comes from Public Health England’s seroprevalence study, the results of which are due to be published next week. The 17% estimate comes from studying 974 NHS blood transfusion donors in London between May 1st and 3rd. So a small sample and hardly a representative one."
So we should just go with his gut feel that lots of people have had it?
I’m sure they know how to reweight a survey - although donor vs non donor could be tricky
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
The lockdown is already over.
What we still have is a partial shutdown.
Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.
Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.
That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
The shocking thing about Cummings is that his actions exposed other to a lethal risk, probably his parents....I don't believe the crap that he went to see his sister only
Well, one thing that is going to be rather difficult to lie about is whether there is really a separate house on the property that the Cummingses stayed in, and whether a third house would have been available for the sister to take care of the child in without putting the parents at risk.
"No business can survive on 20-30% of previous turnover. "
This claim is commercially illiterate. Of course lots of businesses can survive on 20% of turnover. More importantly, peak capacity cuts rarely result in commensurate turnover falls.
I run a deli and 65% of our customer space is for cafe seating. Social distancing will cut indoor peak customer capacity by about 50% - but we trade at peak capacity for at most 15% of the time we're open.
Lockdown hasn't lost us all our cafe business: last week 40% of our pre-March sitdown cafe business had turned into take-away or delivered sales. Even aside from the 35% growth we've seen in our grocery sales, we currently expect to get back about 80% of our sit-down cafe sales by expanding our outside seating, by imaginative new ideas (esp in generating sit-down traffic outside the lunchtime peak) and by exploiting the undoubted growth in UK holidaymaking that'll coincide with the Great Unlock.
Lockdown forced us to make operational savings we ought to have made a year ago: the govt's prodigality with handouts has eliminated interest payments on loans, and is subsidising investments in cost-saving kit. As will the haircut our landlord's going to have to take.
Are we typical? Possibly not. But are the moaners typical either?
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
Looks like you were completely unable to address my point, so that's telling in itself
That’s because you didn’t have one. I am not one of the people who thought the prorogation decision would bring down the government, or result in Johnson or Cummings going, or indeed having any measurable effect on any (yet to be called) election. I also thought that, because of Corbyn, a Tory victory was nailed on. So I can’t really defend the position you ask me to.
However I do know this issue is going to be like Black Wednesday in 1992 - people will remember this in 2024 the same way people remembered Black Wednesday in 1997. Black Wednesday hit people in their pockets (I remember my Dad freaking out about the mortgage) and irreparably damaged the Government. It never recovered. The decision of Lady Hale and her colleagues last year was about an arcane bit of constitutional law no one cared about. This, however, is about a government defending a man who put voter’s lives at risk by quite possibly acting as a super spreader from London to the North East, and certainly breaching strongly supported lockdown regs . The differences between the two situations you outline are blindingly obvious. And Corbyn’s gone.
Black Wednesday was about a serious failure of a key plank of government policy, that resulted in a severe recession, this is about whether or not an advisor to the government stayed in one place or another during a natural disaster. I doubt very much that anyone will be talking about it during the 2024 election campaign.
It seems from this morning that the government have called the most serious reports of DC's behaviour as outright wrong. I suspect that if the papers concerned have evidence then he's toast, but if they don't then the story will be chip paper by next week.
By the time of Black Wednesday the recession was largely behind us and it was a great surprise to many that the Tories had been re-elected five months earlier. Exiting the ERM - far from causing recession - laid the basis for years of subsequent growth and recovery , though that failed to save the Tories in 1997.
" At the Downing Street press briefing on Thursday, Matt Hancock announced that “around 17% of people in London… have tested positive for coronavirus antibodies” based on “the results of our antibody surveillance study...
Stop Press: I put in a call to the Department of Health and Social Care to try and find out a bit more about this data and have been told it comes from Public Health England’s seroprevalence study, the results of which are due to be published next week. The 17% estimate comes from studying 974 NHS blood transfusion donors in London between May 1st and 3rd. So a small sample and hardly a representative one."
So we should just go with his gut feel that lots of people have had it?
I’m sure they know how to reweight a survey - although donor vs non donor could be tricky
Or we could go with the Oxford group, which concludes that. for up to half the population. it just ain't a thing. They don;t catch it, or if they do are immune through genetics or having had colds and the like. And they don;t show antibodies.
Look at Sweden. They went for herd immunity and yet their antibody numbers are still really low. At the same time its deaths per million are below ours.
why? the Oxford groups conclusion seem plausible to me. Indeed its the only answer.
And that's why this snail's pace emergence from lockdown is such a ghastly farce. And a highly damaging one
Comments
In the end I think the furlough scheme will continue as is (or very close to) for businesses mandated to be closed. (That may come after complaints from sectors rather than in this weeks announcement).
It is very likely a moot point, restaurants and cafes will almost certainly be allowed to open in some form by August, in most of Europe they already are now including countries with similar outbreaks to us.
Im not really sure what businesses would be banned from opening by August, although of course there will be plenty severely handicapped by new rules.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18471549.durham-county-councillors-speak-dominic-cummings-row/
I'll do it for £750.
#1rule4them
She has to assume continued closure and having to make up employees’ wages out of non-existent income. There are rules on trading while insolvent to consider as well. So closure looms.
And, btw, August is too late. Most of the season will have gone by then.
This sort of faffing about and statements made without any regard for what it means to people trying to make a living as what you get when you have rich out of touch politicians who have no understanding of - or willingness to learn about - what it is like to run a small business or, indeed, any sort of business at all.
Is it a political meeting, a PR meeting, or are there a bunch of lawyers in the room?
Typing too slow: 4/6 go, 11/10 stay.
Dominic Raab 3/1
Grant Shapps 7/2
Alok Sharma 9/2
Robert Jenrick 5/1
George Eustice 6/1
Boris Johnson 10/1
Michael Gove 10/1
Gavin Williamson 12/1
Oliver Dowden 12/1
Amanda Milling 14/1
Matthew Hancock 16/1
Priti Patel 16/1
Boris will probably officially fire him but keep him on and then re-appoint him in a matter of weeks. This, I'm afraid, is part of Johnson's weakness as a PM. It's a shame because I believe he could flourish on his own two feet.
The desperation by no 10 to keep him suggests that’s the case .
Perhaps you should wait until you get the full details this time.
Plus an acceptance that things might have changed permanently and there will be long term changes in the economy with, unfortunate as it is, people who lose out.
It's not that bad here yet, but it's moving that way.
Dominic Raab 7/2
Grant Shapps 7/2
Alok Sharma 5/1
Robert Jenrick 5/1
Boris Johnson 6/1
George Eustice 6/1
Michael Gove 8/1
Gavin Williamson 12/1
Oliver Dowden 12/1
Amanda Milling 14/1
Matthew Hancock 16/1
Priti Patel 16/1
Rishi Sunak 40/1
They are even more stupid than I thought if this is their intention.
That used to be the case when I worked in such an area, anyway.
For any pedants, I'm including Whitsun in June.
They came together nearly falling over each other. Cummings is the news story but the press are as bad on this occasion with utter disregard for covid requirements
NEW THREAD
Businesses have a duty of care to customers, that is not going away, so firms will have to take reasonable precautions. Id imagine doing what most others are doing will be seen as reasonable. So look at whats happening in European countries now seems the best way to find out what may be required.
My suspicion is that we'll be back in church later this summer but with no singing permitted, and with many of the oldies (who are of course most of the congregation) staying away. I've been trying to fit my fingers round some Howells so I have something new to play when I get back...
Cummings is alleged to have broken the law on three occasions:
(1) Going to Durham on the weekend of 28-29 March
(2) Going to Barnard Castle on 12 April
(3) Going to Durham again by 19 April.
Lockdown has turned us into a nation of Traffic Wardens
Even decent houses round here take an age to sell in normal times.
The pity of it all is that my daughter has lots of ideas about how she can get the business up and running again, new ideas to try etc. But she does need some temporary help to transition from closure to that. Instead what she sees is a lack of clarity, confusion, very unhelpful statements and a lack of understanding.
She despairs - I am not overstating this. I have not seen her so down as in the last few days. And given what else has been happening in our family you can understand my concerns.
Newspapers and the 24/7 news media need constant stories for their sales even when there is no news so they speculate and dress it up as news.
Ignore the closed chip shop wrappings and pay attention to the actual announcements. There should be another formal statement on next steps next week. There'll be much speculation between now and then but it's the announcement that is all that really matters.
PS I agree 100% that businesses that rely upon the Spring/Summer season are particularly screwed this year. Businesses that rely upon Christmas are much luckier.
No business can survive on 20-30% of previous turnover. If that is what expected the government may as well pay compensation now to those businesses forced to close so that their owners can use the money to do something else.
It does show that the way the partisans close ranks regardless of what the issue is or level of guilt when feeling threatened isn't just unique to the Labour partisans, many of whom we saw doggedly dig in for Corbyn over antisemitism. On the grounds that showing weakness would be dangerous for them.
We're watching the same thing with loads of Tory activists. The brighter ones are aghast because they know the level of damage that can be sustained when you too obviously hold the people in contempt.
And too many people are unable to see anything other than through the prism of Brexit. The Lib Dems learned to their cost last December that most people aren't, in fact, obsessive about Brexit. Those who are, though, have to see everything in terms of it, which is why you're getting people insisting that no, all this is because of Remainers or Brexit or something other than an unelected arrogant SpAd smashing quarantine for himself and his family while the little people were required to struggle through.
And it's cut through. I've kept hearing people who've previously been saying "I've been saying the Government are trying to get through a very difficult time; we should give them our support" come out with outright rants about "This Cummings person" and "One rule for us, another for them" and "Surely he's got to go?"
Personally, I think if he doesn't go today or tomorrow morning by the latest, I want the Tories to keep him on. Let them own it. I've seen Lib Dems convinced that the tuition fees thing will have died down long before the 2015 election, Labourites certain that Corbyn's latest misstep won't be held against them, and I remember Back to Basics with the Tories in the Nineties. All next week's chip papers, right?
People remember the stench of hypocrisy. They remember the strong narratives. Associate Cummings with this and you've got a great story on any deaths or cockups over handling the pandemic. And if you think that the pandemic will be forgotten soon, you're even more overoptimistic than any of those Lib Dems about tuition fees or Labourites about antisemitism.
The instinct when tribalists are under pressure is to fall back to the Millwall Defence: "Fuck off, I'm Millwall, what can you do about it?" Great for signalling loyalty to the in-group and making yourself feel better. Not so good when you've got to convince millions outside the in-group that you speak for them and represent them.
Why make stuff up? Or are you saying Starmer is so weak that PMQs doesn't count?
But from a practical point of view, despair wont help, its great she is negotiating with the landlord and coming up with ideas. She will probably be able to reopen early July which will come sooner than it feels.
Cummings is the effective PM, so *if* he goes, it will be a significant hit to the government.
No independent observer thinks Boris has the focus or stamina to actually lead the country. He will be mortally wounded by a Cummings ouster, hence the desperation to keep him so far.
The real news of course is that Cummings-Vallance, either with Boris’s conscious or unconscious approval - ignored the mounting evidence from abroad and dissent from others on NERVTAG or SAGE to prevent an early lockdown.
Until public opinion forced them to U-turn, by which time, sadly, tens of thousands of deaths were unavoidable.
The government accidentally let many, mostly elderly, people suffocate to death.
Boris and the government know this of course which is why they come across as so deflated and twitchy.
Meanwhile, Brexit policy remains unchanged. The government assumes we won’t notice the sclerotic recovery from COVID caused by the retreat of investment from export industries.
Of the three great trading blocs, China is looking politically less viable, we are committed to mutual destruction in our relations with the EU, and Trump/US will be looking at us like meat on a platter.
The global institutions that a services-focused entity with free trade aspirations needs to underpin global trade flows also look to be in permanent decline.
Interesting to read Baker this morning confess that he and the hardliners were hoodwinked into accepting a trade border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
Instead of 60 people turning up between 12 & 1.30 for lunch whenever they like to, restaurants might need to run lunch for up to 15 at pre booked staggered times from 11.30, 12.30, 1.30 to get 45 in.
I’m sure they know how to reweight a survey - although donor vs non donor could be tricky
https://chillingham-castle.com/your-visit/
"No business can survive on 20-30% of previous turnover. "
This claim is commercially illiterate. Of course lots of businesses can survive on 20% of turnover. More importantly, peak capacity cuts rarely result in commensurate turnover falls.
I run a deli and 65% of our customer space is for cafe seating. Social distancing will cut indoor peak customer capacity by about 50% - but we trade at peak capacity for at most 15% of the time we're open.
Lockdown hasn't lost us all our cafe business: last week 40% of our pre-March sitdown cafe business had turned into take-away or delivered sales. Even aside from the 35% growth we've seen in our grocery sales, we currently expect to get back about 80% of our sit-down cafe sales by expanding our outside seating, by imaginative new ideas (esp in generating sit-down traffic outside the lunchtime peak) and by exploiting the undoubted growth in UK holidaymaking that'll coincide with the Great Unlock.
Lockdown forced us to make operational savings we ought to have made a year ago: the govt's prodigality with handouts has eliminated interest payments on loans, and is subsidising investments in cost-saving kit. As will the haircut our landlord's going to have to take.
Are we typical? Possibly not. But are the moaners typical either?
Look at Sweden. They went for herd immunity and yet their antibody numbers are still really low. At the same time its deaths per million are below ours.
why? the Oxford groups conclusion seem plausible to me. Indeed its the only answer.
And that's why this snail's pace emergence from lockdown is such a ghastly farce. And a highly damaging one