Of course if Johnson sacks Cummings now he just reinforces the idea he follows, rather than leads.
"Weak, weak, weak"
Indeed, this is what I was saying last night. OGH thinks it makes Boris look week if DC stays, I think it makes him look week if, after all this, he bows to pressure.
At the end of the day, Boris has an 80 seat majority and the fish and chips this news will be wrapped around tomorrow will be four years old by the time of the next election.
If Boris looks week, Cummings looks day to me.
I would quietly withdraw from the "nothing to see here, fish and chip wrapper" argument if I were you. I can assure you that in 1997 voters had an adequate memory of events in 1992.
Also, feel free to resile from the "It won't change a single vote" claim. I have voted tory in every GE bar one since 1979, being a sound finance and foxhunting kinda guy. With Sunak spending like a drunk duke on his birthday and that arse Raab heading tories against hunting or whatever it's called, it is down to a straight choice whether to trust Boris or the forensicator with the economy. Not the hardest decision, is it?.
Yeah, fair on the typo, I've been awake about 15 mins and still haven't finished my morning coffee.
On your other points, it is absolutely human nature to over-ascribe importance to whatever the story of the day is.
The story of the next four years is going to be how (if!) the economy survives and recovers.
If the Tories get it right and we are in good times by 2024 then they'll win. If they screw up then the lasting memory will be of 20% unemployment only just beginning to subside, home repossessions, negative equity, tax rises on those still in work, etc. The Cummings story will be a mere blip.
I've been posting here since 2016 so there's a fair chance I'll still be around in 2024 to say I told you so
Wrong again. Major only had a majority of about 20. You are doing well today.
Parallels to John Major's government might include crashing out of the ERM which showed the public that its sacrifices in terms of high interest rates, lost jobs and even lost homes, had been for nought. Voters still remembered five years later and swept Labour to power.
Cummings might be a bubble story that burns out after 48 hours but is it perhaps more likely that voters will remember and resent that their sacrifices were undone by the elite? That we are not all in it together and never were?
Of course if Johnson sacks Cummings now he just reinforces the idea he follows, rather than leads.
"Weak, weak, weak"
Indeed, this is what I was saying last night. OGH thinks it makes Boris look week if DC stays, I think it makes him look week if, after all this, he bows to pressure.
At the end of the day, Boris has an 80 seat majority and the fish and chips this news will be wrapped around tomorrow will be four years old by the time of the next election.
Yep - time to show strength. If Boris and Cummings manage to sail through the worst the press and Opposition can throw at them now, they will be utterly invincible.
Elated anti-Tories should also remember how they felt the day of Lady Hale's verdict concerning the prorogation, when many thought that Cummings and Boris were finished, and that both Brexit and the Conservative Government - which at that time had no majority whatsoever - were doomed.
Spoiler alert: they weren't.
Seriously reprising your back catalogue now. Got anything a bit newer?
Facts don't change just because people get bored of them. This is one of the best politics forums on the internet, but its Achiles' heel is an addiction to short-termism and ephemeral headlines and scandals - the un-prorogation is a locus classicus for that failing.
'This too shall pass' should be the default response to _any_ headline, good or bad, until proven otherwise.
@AlastairMeeks Can you see any obvious split between Brexiteers and even more Brexiteers in the backbench rebels ?
I expect a lot of this is entirely personal. Dominic Cummings famously does not suffer fools gladly or, indeed, at all. Some of those fools are now taking their opportunity.
Wrong again. Major only had a majority of about 20. You are doing well today.
Parallels to John Major's government might include crashing out of the ERM which showed the public that its sacrifices in terms of high interest rates, lost jobs and even lost homes, had been for nought. Voters still remembered five years later and swept Labour to power.
Cummings might be a bubble story that burns out after 48 hours but is it perhaps more likely that voters will remember and resent that their sacrifices were undone by the elite? That we are not all in it together and never were?
Wrong again. Major only had a majority of about 20. You are doing well today.
The Tories have an 80 seat majority. Boris is ill and things are about to seriously fall apart - tomorrow is a bank holiday and people want to go out, get a change of scenario and see their friends.
And if those in power have completely ignored the law and done so, why shouldn't those not in power especially now the risk will be perceived by a lot of people to be lower.
Fair comment. I was just pointing out glaring inaccuracies by CHB...
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
Yes, triviality indeed. It's a Westminster bubble story,
Oh in some ways I'd love to agree with you because, fwiw, I really couldn't care a less about where Cummings went.
However I'm afraid you are wrong. Everyone I know is talking about it: on social media, in phone conversations, emails, in jokes being passed around.
This is a big story because the Gov't made SUCH a huge thing about staying at home. 'Ordinary people' were fined for lesser misdemeanours. It has touched a very raw nerve because it smacks of precisely what Dom was supposed to be against: an out of touch elite who do what they want in contrast to the rest of us.
It's very very toxic for this Gov't and I will bet you now that they will never recover their level of support to pre-month-of-May levels after this.
Excellent post.
It turns out that anti-elite, populists are just another elite. Only worse.
And they looked from pig to man, and man to pig etc etc.
I think we are approaching the "Four legs good, two legs better" stage on Tory WhatsApp.
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
Looks like you were completely unable to address my point, so that's telling in itself
@AlastairMeeks Can you see any obvious split between Brexiteers and even more Brexiteers in the backbench rebels ?
I expect a lot of this is entirely personal. Dominic Cummings famously does not suffer fools gladly or, indeed, at all. Some of those fools are now taking their opportunity.
That sounds fair. It's not unreasonable to say that Mr Cummings has made an awful lot of enemies over the years - from all four corners of the political spectrum.
Does Tesco not do home deliveries in London like the rest of the nation?
Actually as an aside, there was a period for several weeks where in rural areas, unless you were registered as elderly, it was absolutely impossible to get any delivery slots with any supermarket with less than a 3 week waiting time. I suspect it was much better in London than elsewhere on this score.
Is Shapps really confusing lockdown and self-isolation? Has he not heard that the whole country has been in lockdown for two months?
I thought that too. Lockdown is sticking to the guidelines (Yes you can go to work...), quarantine is absolubtely do not leave your house for any reason whatsoever - well unless it's burning I suppose.
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
I have two clear memories of the 1978 FA cup. John Wile's bloodied and bandaged head (we was robbed) in the Semi, and an Arsenal fan's banner at Wembley which read something like 'Big Willie covers Featherlite Mariner' (or better still the complete opposite- it was along time ago!).
Happier days- we hadn't even had the winter of discontent at that point.
George Marshall has a basic principle that retired officers should play no role in politics. I think he was right.
This individual is trading on his police service to imply that the police are opposed to the government
That is wrong
You are doing heroic work here.
?
I’m not commenting on the Cummings story because I don’t care enough to wade through the claims and counterclaims.
I do have a real issue about the culture of leaking and the politicisation of what should be fundamentally apolitical roles that has developed over the last few years
What are the views here on how much Cummings was responsible for the 2016 referendum victory?
If you believe the legend, the leave campaign wouldn't even have been close without him!
Probably closer to the truth is that he was an important and intrinsic part of it as leader of the official VL campaign, but was only one cog in the machine that delivered the victory.
What are the views here on how much Cummings was responsible for the 2016 referendum victory?
Almost entirely. He ran rings around the established politicos and got a win when even the most dedicated Brexiteers thought there was little realistic chance of victory. He changed politics entirely.
Does Tesco not do home deliveries in London like the rest of the nation?
Actually as an aside, there was a period for several weeks where in rural areas, unless you were registered as elderly, it was absolutely impossible to get any delivery slots with any supermarket with less than a 3 week waiting time. I suspect it was much better in London than elsewhere on this score.
London wasnt much better from the high street supermarkets, if at all. The only way I could do it was logging on at midnight which worked with tesco and morrison (with the 3 week wait) until others caught on to the strategy. The difference is probably the amount of small scale operations who would deliver goods at a premium is much higher here.
The danger for Dom is if more hard evidence comes out to back up the claims that he was in Barnard Castle. Surely there must be some CCTV footage somewhere to back up the allegation.
As I recall, parking is a bugger in Barnard Castle. I wonder where he parked and how he paid.
??? On street parking is free and the car park by Morrisons and behind the high street / Witham charges but it's a council car park with dumb ticket machines
All this time I thought they were talking about Bayard’s Castle in London!
Nope Barnard Castle home of the Bowes Museum.
On the way from Durham to Barnie, is Bishop Auckland which would also be home to some new art galleries if it wasn't for this crisis. At least Jonathan Ruffer has the money to keep things going.
Yes, Jonathan is doing some great work. I don’t particularly like the Zubarans but each to his own!
Somebody somewhere believed Ferguson. Whether or not it was Cummings I don't know, but Ferguson was exactly the kind of person Cummings thought should be close to government. The sort of person he posted job adverts for.
When Corona came along here was a chance to drive policy the way Cummings, from his blogposts, thought it should be driven. By nerdy mathy outsiders with computer models.
What are the views here on how much Cummings was responsible for the 2016 referendum victory?
If you believe the legend, the leave campaign wouldn't even have been close without him!
Probably closer to the truth is that he was an important and intrinsic part of it as leader of the official VL campaign, but was only one cog in the machine that delivered the victory.
You could see his influence on the ground. Everyone you spoke to about it during campaigning were saying the sorts of things he was pumping out on social media. I didn't really realise it until afterwards but the signs were there all along.
the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
Yes, triviality indeed. It's a Westminster bubble story,
Oh in some ways I'd love to agree with you because, fwiw, I really couldn't care a less about where Cummings went.
However I'm afraid you are wrong. Everyone I know is talking about it: on social media, in phone conversations, emails, in jokes being passed around.
This is a big story because the Gov't made SUCH a huge thing about staying at home. 'Ordinary people' were fined for lesser misdemeanours. It has touched a very raw nerve because it smacks of precisely what Dom was supposed to be against: an out of touch elite who do what they want in contrast to the rest of us.
It's very very toxic for this Gov't and I will bet you now that they will never recover their level of support to pre-month-of-May levels after this.
Excellent post.
It turns out that anti-elite, populists are just another elite. Only worse.
And they looked from pig to man, and man to pig etc etc.
I think we are approaching the "Four legs good, two legs better" stage on Tory WhatsApp.
The ministers have all in unison said 'doing X (in this case caring for family) is justifiable....' which of course it is. They have notably not said 'DC has acted correctly and I stand with him'. There is a lot of wriggle room.
Steve Baker and others call for Cummimgs to resign
Labour and others seek Mark Sedwell to launch an investigation
As I understand it Cummings and Baker have history and they both dislike each other with a passion
I am prepared to be corrected but I understand Cummings wants a deal and compromise with the EU and Baker wants no deal
I remember well in my days of canvassing for the party the amazing in fighting going on behind the public facade with members battling members and helpers fallingout with helpers even to the point that some councillors would refuse to campaign. It was not pleasant and very petty, I expect it goeson in all parties
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
Looks like you were completely unable to address my point, so that's telling in itself
That’s because you didn’t have one. I am not one of the people who thought the prorogation decision would bring down the government, or result in Johnson or Cummings going, or indeed having any measurable effect on any (yet to be called) election. I also thought that, because of Corbyn, a Tory victory was nailed on. So I can’t really defend the position you ask me to.
However I do know this issue is going to be like Black Wednesday in 1992 - people will remember this in 2024 the same way people remembered Black Wednesday in 1997. Black Wednesday hit people in their pockets (I remember my Dad freaking out about the mortgage) and irreparably damaged the Government. It never recovered. The decision of Lady Hale and her colleagues last year was about an arcane bit of constitutional law no one cared about. This, however, is about a government defending a man who put voter’s lives at risk by quite possibly acting as a super spreader from London to the North East, and certainly breaching strongly supported lockdown regs . The differences between the two situations you outline are blindingly obvious. And Corbyn’s gone.
the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
Yes, triviality indeed. It's a Westminster bubble story,
Oh in some ways I'd love to agree with you because, fwiw, I really couldn't care a less about where Cummings went.
However I'm afraid you are wrong. Everyone I know is talking about it: on social media, in phone conversations, emails, in jokes being passed around.
This is a big story because the Gov't made SUCH a huge thing about staying at home. 'Ordinary people' were fined for lesser misdemeanours. It has touched a very raw nerve because it smacks of precisely what Dom was supposed to be against: an out of touch elite who do what they want in contrast to the rest of us.
It's very very toxic for this Gov't and I will bet you now that they will never recover their level of support to pre-month-of-May levels after this.
Excellent post.
It turns out that anti-elite, populists are just another elite. Only worse.
And they looked from pig to man, and man to pig etc etc.
I think we are approaching the "Four legs good, two legs better" stage on Tory WhatsApp.
The ministers have all in unison said 'doing X (in this case caring for family) is justifiable....' which of course it is. They have notably not said 'DC has acted correctly and I stand with him'. There is a lot of wriggle room.
It makes the return to schools policy unenforceable. Will they even able to go back to fine parents for thinking its best for kids to be on holiday once this is over.
"Im a parent so Im entitled to do whatever I want" is the govts position.
Does Tesco not do home deliveries in London like the rest of the nation?
Actually as an aside, there was a period for several weeks where in rural areas, unless you were registered as elderly, it was absolutely impossible to get any delivery slots with any supermarket with less than a 3 week waiting time. I suspect it was much better in London than elsewhere on this score.
London wasnt much better from the high street supermarkets, if at all. The only way I could do it was logging on at midnight which worked with tesco and morrison (with the 3 week wait) until others caught on to the strategy. The difference is probably the amount of small scale operations who would deliver goods at a premium is much higher here.
Presumably Number 10 could have sent round a minion to drop stuff off from time to time?
Shapps used the phrase "As I understand it" about ten times in the Marr interview. He also implied he couldn't be expected to know the facts and relied on Downing Street statements. He's being cautious about what he's putting on the record.
EDIT: His defence of the Barnard Castle trip was stretching the elastic. It depended on Cummings travelling on the 27th (the day he ran away from Downing St) so that the trip to Barnard Castle on the 12th (for exercise?) was after the 12 day self isolation period. He must know the Barnard Castle story is true.
Somebody somewhere believed Ferguson. Whether or not it was Cummings I don't know, but Ferguson was exactly the kind of person Cummings thought should be close to government. The sort of person he posted job adverts for.
When Corona came along here was a chance to drive policy the way Cummings, from his blogposts, thought it should be driven. By nerdy mathy outsiders with computer models.
The results are, well, judge for yourself.
I think what you have here is where the "realities" of data hits the realities of politics.
The initial data suggested we go herd immunity, no lockdown. Then when the Italian data came out, they extrapolated that this could kill up to 250k people.
It was the correct decision at the time, based on the facts available, to go into a precautionary lockdown to prevent the NHS from collapsing.
But a lot of the "facts" from then were proven wrong as more data emerged. That is why we did not end up needing thousands of ventilators and why the Nightingale hospitals have stood empty.
The trouble is that even though new facts have emerged since then, it is politically impossible to roll back the lockdown without suffering bad press and being called a butcher. Despite the fact it is unnecessary, despite the fact we are destroying our economy without good reason.
So ultimately this is not a government driven by data, it is one driven by headlines. Which is why I think Boris might cave to pressure on Dom. And why we are stuck with this bloody endless lockdown.
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
Looks like you were completely unable to address my point, so that's telling in itself
That’s because you didn’t have one. I am not one of the people who thought the prorogation decision would bring down the government, or result in Johnson or Cummings going, or indeed having any measurable effect on any (yet to be called) election. I also thought that, because of Corbyn, a Tory victory was nailed on. So I can’t really defend the position you ask me to.
However I do know this issue is going to be like Black Wednesday in 1992 - people will remember this in 2024 the same way people remembered Black Wednesday in 1997. Black Wednesday hit people in their pockets (I remember my Dad freaking out about the mortgage) and irreparably damaged the Government. It never recovered. The decision of Lady Hale and her colleagues last year was about an arcane bit of constitutional law no one cared about. This, however, is about a government defending a man who put voter’s lives at risk by quite possibly acting as a super spreader from London to the North East, and certainly breaching strongly supported lockdown regs . The differences between the two situations you outline are blindingly obvious. And Corbyn’s gone.
Black Wednesday was about a serious failure of a key plank of government policy, that resulted in a severe recession, this is about whether or not an advisor to the government stayed in one place or another during a natural disaster. I doubt very much that anyone will be talking about it during the 2024 election campaign.
It seems from this morning that the government have called the most serious reports of DC's behaviour as outright wrong. I suspect that if the papers concerned have evidence then he's toast, but if they don't then the story will be chip paper by next week.
What are the views here on how much Cummings was responsible for the 2016 referendum victory?
Almost entirely. He ran rings around the established politicos and got a win when even the most dedicated Brexiteers thought there was little realistic chance of victory. He changed politics entirely.
Shouldn't save him now though.
With merely a 25 year long campaign by the majority of the press behind him and long periods where leaving the EU was leading in the polls.
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
Looks like you were completely unable to address my point, so that's telling in itself
That’s because you didn’t have one. I am not one of the people who thought the prorogation decision would bring down the government, or result in Johnson or Cummings going, or indeed having any measurable effect on any (yet to be called) election. I also thought that, because of Corbyn, a Tory victory was nailed on. So I can’t really defend the position you ask me to.
However I do know this issue is going to be like Black Wednesday in 1992 - people will remember this in 2024 the same way people remembered Black Wednesday in 1997. Black Wednesday hit people in their pockets (I remember my Dad freaking out about the mortgage) and irreparably damaged the Government. It never recovered. The decision of Lady Hale and her colleagues last year was about an arcane bit of constitutional law no one cared about. This, however, is about a government defending a man who put voter’s lives at risk by quite possibly acting as a super spreader from London to the North East, and certainly breaching strongly supported lockdown regs . The differences between the two situations you outline are blindingly obvious. And Corbyn’s gone.
Well, a lot of the people who over-hyped the prorogation then are doing the same with the Cummings story now. Good on you if you weren't one of them - I was saying at the time that it was a lot of rubbish that would blow over, and I was right.
If the economy's still bad in 2024, people will remember and resent the whole coronavirus saga and everything about it, including Cummings. If it isn't, people will probably be grateful that things are back to normal and not care what one SpaD did or didn't do four years earlier.
Things may of course turn out like 1992-1997. But history rarely repeats exactly, and you need quite the crystal ball to make such confident predictions so far out.
For context, 4 years ago was 24/05/2016, David Cameron was still PM, and we were a month away from the EU Referendum and Cummings' first lightning strike...
Shapps used the phrase "As I understand it" about ten times in the Marr interview. He also implied he couldn't be expected to know the facts and relied on Downing Street statements. He's being cautious about what he's putting on the record.
What does Tara jane expect, the guy to dissolve in tears saying yes yes its all true.
Its up to the press to stand their story up. With evidence. Right now they have evidence of one trip.
This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -
Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
Its pathetic. Regardless of the law surely CPS have to view it as in the public interest? How on earth was that the case. One rule for the elite, another for the weakest in society.
From walking around town this week its clear the homeless are back on the streets after six weeks or so of them being somewhere else. Given the amount we are spending and hotels being empty could we really not have extended the solution they had found and was working throughout the lockdown.
Comments
On your other points, it is absolutely human nature to over-ascribe importance to whatever the story of the day is.
The story of the next four years is going to be how (if!) the economy survives and recovers.
If the Tories get it right and we are in good times by 2024 then they'll win. If they screw up then the lasting memory will be of 20% unemployment only just beginning to subside, home repossessions, negative equity, tax rises on those still in work, etc. The Cummings story will be a mere blip.
I've been posting here since 2016 so there's a fair chance I'll still be around in 2024 to say I told you so
The bit that was literally changed during the lockdown to cover Cumming's back iirc.
Cummings might be a bubble story that burns out after 48 hours but is it perhaps more likely that voters will remember and resent that their sacrifices were undone by the elite? That we are not all in it together and never were?
'This too shall pass' should be the default response to _any_ headline, good or bad, until proven otherwise.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/6/made
Turns out Schapps hasn't spoken to Cummings.
Pull the other one mate.
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
So that makes the next election Fornicator vs Forensicator.
As requested
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00n8s9w
He has a doppleganger?
I hear the ghost of Clement Attlee will return to lead it
We'll never know
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1264448674211520512?s=19
Have I understood your position correctly? 😝
It sounds like him stating the blindingly obvious more like.
Happier days- we hadn't even had the winter of discontent at that point.
I’m not commenting on the Cummings story because I don’t care enough to wade through the claims and counterclaims.
I do have a real issue about the culture of leaking and the politicisation of what should be fundamentally apolitical roles that has developed over the last few years
Probably closer to the truth is that he was an important and intrinsic part of it as leader of the official VL campaign, but was only one cog in the machine that delivered the victory.
Shouldn't save him now though.
Somebody somewhere believed Ferguson. Whether or not it was Cummings I don't know, but Ferguson was exactly the kind of person Cummings thought should be close to government. The sort of person he posted job adverts for.
When Corona came along here was a chance to drive policy the way Cummings, from his blogposts, thought it should be driven. By nerdy mathy outsiders with computer models.
The results are, well, judge for yourself.
So, did he break civil service guidelines about following policy?
Cummings still in place then
Shapps rejects Cummings went twice to Durham
Guardian and Mirror called out
Steve Baker and others call for Cummimgs to resign
Labour and others seek Mark Sedwell to launch an investigation
As I understand it Cummings and Baker have history and they both dislike each other with a passion
I am prepared to be corrected but I understand Cummings wants a deal and compromise with the EU and Baker wants no deal
I remember well in my days of canvassing for the party the amazing in fighting going on behind the public facade with members battling members and helpers fallingout with helpers even to the point that some councillors would refuse to campaign. It was not pleasant and very petty, I expect it goeson in all parties
However I do know this issue is going to be like Black Wednesday in 1992 - people will remember this in 2024 the same way people remembered Black Wednesday in 1997. Black Wednesday hit people in their pockets (I remember my Dad freaking out about the mortgage) and irreparably damaged the Government. It never recovered. The decision of Lady Hale and her colleagues last year was about an arcane bit of constitutional law no one cared about. This, however, is about a government defending a man who put voter’s lives at risk by quite possibly acting as a super spreader from London to the North East, and certainly breaching strongly supported lockdown regs . The differences between the two situations you outline are blindingly obvious. And Corbyn’s gone.
"Im a parent so Im entitled to do whatever I want" is the govts position.
All of us of whatever persuasion should be honourable and astute enough to recognise when one of our own screws up.
Each new excuse gets even more ridiculous.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
EDIT: His defence of the Barnard Castle trip was stretching the elastic. It depended on Cummings travelling on the 27th (the day he ran away from Downing St) so that the trip to Barnard Castle on the 12th (for exercise?) was after the 12 day self isolation period. He must know the Barnard Castle story is true.
A grand total of zero, I reckon.
May be reading too much into it, but does he think Boris will go?
The initial data suggested we go herd immunity, no lockdown. Then when the Italian data came out, they extrapolated that this could kill up to 250k people.
It was the correct decision at the time, based on the facts available, to go into a precautionary lockdown to prevent the NHS from collapsing.
But a lot of the "facts" from then were proven wrong as more data emerged. That is why we did not end up needing thousands of ventilators and why the Nightingale hospitals have stood empty.
The trouble is that even though new facts have emerged since then, it is politically impossible to roll back the lockdown without suffering bad press and being called a butcher. Despite the fact it is unnecessary, despite the fact we are destroying our economy without good reason.
So ultimately this is not a government driven by data, it is one driven by headlines. Which is why I think Boris might cave to pressure on Dom. And why we are stuck with this bloody endless lockdown.
It seems from this morning that the government have called the most serious reports of DC's behaviour as outright wrong. I suspect that if the papers concerned have evidence then he's toast, but if they don't then the story will be chip paper by next week.
What a savant like hero of the impossible.
If the economy's still bad in 2024, people will remember and resent the whole coronavirus saga and everything about it, including Cummings. If it isn't, people will probably be grateful that things are back to normal and not care what one SpaD did or didn't do four years earlier.
Things may of course turn out like 1992-1997. But history rarely repeats exactly, and you need quite the crystal ball to make such confident predictions so far out.
For context, 4 years ago was 24/05/2016, David Cameron was still PM, and we were a month away from the EU Referendum and Cummings' first lightning strike...
Its up to the press to stand their story up. With evidence. Right now they have evidence of one trip.
From walking around town this week its clear the homeless are back on the streets after six weeks or so of them being somewhere else. Given the amount we are spending and hotels being empty could we really not have extended the solution they had found and was working throughout the lockdown.
Cummings and Goings must have some serious shit on the fat controller