How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
The lockdown is already over.
What we still have is a partial shutdown.
Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.
Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.
That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
I've had coronavirus. So I'm almost certainly immune.
You reckon?
Insofar as we know anything about this virus, yes. Scientific consensus is that there is immunity, though no one knows how long it lasts.
As I said last night, the anger out in Middle England is off the scale.
Can't wait for some polling.
Is that anger at Cummings, or anger at lockdown though? I suspect its a big slice of the latter.
Actually lockdown is very popular and it is not hard to see why.
Coming out of lockdown is where all the dangers are.
Paying everyone close to their full salary not to work is always going to be popular.
Withdrawing that support, with a couple of million becoming unemployed in the process, is going to be a whole lot of trouble no matter who is in charge. Ditto with the eventual spending cuts needed to pay for all the extra borrowing.
UC will be a lot cheaper than furlough though, clock is ticking.
How many views has that Andrew Neil empty-chair video had by now? I remember being assured by someone that it would have massive electoral cut-through.
Must be tens of millions by now...
Different battle, different war. This is killing you in the Shires.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -
Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -
The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
That and underfunding. Current rates for a first year trainee solicitor with the CPS are about £18.5k pa - just under the average graduate pay. The Law Society recommends a £22k minimum in London and a £19k minimum outside. Given you have a year or two of law school debts to pay on top of University loans they are not able to attract the brightest and best, or even above average, to prosecute cases and it’s that prep, rather than any flashy displays by the Bar in court, where cases are won and lost. Also means that they’ll prosecute any old shite.
Certainly top graduates from law school will head for city law firms with starting salaries £50k plus or if they are super bright the commercial bar where pupils can even earn six figures.
However criminal law is generally underpaid and not just at the CPS, the average defence solicitor earns little more than the average salary and even criminal barristers earn only about £15 to £20 k as pupils
Erm...you do know what I do for a living, don’t you?
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
No surprise Johnson’s ratings have plummeted from the high of Easter Sunday when the news broke that he had beaten the killer bug and left hospital. At that moment he was a hero to all but the most bitterly partisan of lefty remoaners. He had become “our PM” in the genuine sense of the term. There was no other way but down from such a peak.
Except it strikes me there was. There was one way to prevent the slide into disrepute and Johnson missed a trick in not embracing it. Instead of winning his battle against the virus he could have fought like a lion for weeks before succumbing to it and dying. The popularity accruing from this course of action, I suggest, would have been even greater than we saw on the joyous day of his release. More crucially, it would have lasted. Grown even.
They say politics is showbiz for ugly people and there is truth in this. Hendrix, Morrison, Joplin, Jones, Moon, Cobain – what do these have in common? The answer is 27. All checked out at that age and as a result they are frozen in our minds eye as potent icons at the top of their game. We see them forever thus, pure and untainted, prevented from shambling in later years around the pyramid stage in the tea-time Legends slot by the fact of being six feet under.
As 27 is to musicians, so 55 is to a politician. The age at which you’ve made it, much done, but plenty lying ahead. It’s the sweet spot and to be cut down at this juncture delivers maximum poignancy and romantic appeal. If the RIP politician is ‘big’ a legend will be born. And Johnson is big. Very. So imagine the dimensions he’d assume if he were never to grow old on us, if he were to be pickled and stored for the nation just as he is now, our 55 year old boyish bouncy blond bomber. Always and forever our “Boris”. Ratings? They’d need a new scale. And Starmer or no Starmer, the next election in the bag.
They could have buried him arse up and he could have been useful for once as a bikestand.
One of the economic dangers is that people won't be willing to visit hospitality venues even post-lockdown, due to a widespread belief that the virus is worse than it actually is. This is why the actions of Cummings, Professor Ferguson etc may actually be helpful, as they may contribute to a reduction in the paranoia amongst the masses, and therefore, perhaps, make the longer term economic damage less severe.
Perhaps we should give Cummings and Ferguson knighthoods or ennoblement?
Lord Dominic of Covid has certain ring to it... but "Sauron" may be more apt
This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -
Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -
The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
That and underfunding. Current rates for a first year trainee solicitor with the CPS are about £18.5k pa - just under the average graduate pay. The Law Society recommends a £22k minimum in London and a £19k minimum outside. Given you have a year or two of law school debts to pay on top of University loans they are not able to attract the brightest and best, or even above average, to prosecute cases and it’s that prep, rather than any flashy displays by the Bar in court, where cases are won and lost. Also means that they’ll prosecute any old shite.
Certainly top graduates from law school will head for city law firms with starting salaries £50k plus or if they are super bright the commercial bar where pupils can even earn six figures.
However criminal law is generally underpaid and not just at the CPS, the average defence solicitor earns little more than the average salary and even criminal barristers earn only about £15 to £20 k as pupils
Erm...you do know what I do for a living, don’t you?
Well you know my post was correct then
Well, perhaps, but that is not the point I was getting at.
Boris and Starmer are closely matched in approval overall though, 45% for Boris and 47% for Starmer and more Tory voters, 33% still disapprove of Starmer than the 26% who approve.
The Tories also still have a clear poll lead on 47%. While Starmer has increased the Labour voteshare from 32% at the last general election to 35% there are clearly a lot of Tory voters who will still not vote Labour even if they are less afraid of Starmer than Corbyn (though I suppose they might vote LD if they are Remainers and we go to WTO terms Brexit) https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1264296723310141440?s=20
I think that's a fair analysis of the position as it stood last week. I doubt if any of us can say with confidence where it will be in 6 months, let alone in 3 years.
I'm genuinely sorry for Boris's dilemma at a personal level. He is probably feeling very under par in an objectively very difficult situation, with his closest aide under extreme pressure. He's always wanted to be PM so won't give it up readily. His absence from the airwaves is increasingly marked, but when he goes on and gives a substandard performance his rating goes down. He is probably thinking "Thank God for the recess" and just hoping he gets better and the pressure eases.
But it does give the impression of drift. Supposedly we are having a big step towards lockdown easing in a week. The news should be full of the Government's preparations for it. Instead, they are preoccupied with defending Cummings.
Yes the Government has lost its mojo a bit but the evidence seems to be if Starmer gets in he will be more Wilson 1964 or 1974, with most Tory switchers going LD rather than Labour, than Blair 1997 where Tory switchers felt safe enough to vote for New Labour
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
As you do not tire of telling us, Labour people do not run the country, and the hypocrisy charges are harder to stick. Anyway, Cummings is not even a member of the Conservative Party so far as I am aware.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
It would be astonishing if every MP had behaved themselves.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
It would be astonishing if every MP had behaved themselves.
Even so, it is impressive discipline that would not have been seen from the last leadership team.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
We don't know that. The plan/hope/vague aspiration is for them to reopen then. Plenty won't. Regardless of the "legality" or otherwise. Plenty more won't be able to function at a profitable capacity.
Sure, but the quote was clearly misleading from one of the most consistently accurate posters on here.
1. He is not ending furlough, the terms are planned to change in August. 2. Most businesses are expected to be legally allowed to be open by then. 3. The details have not been released so we have no idea if there will be exemptions for the businesses that are mandated to be closed.
Boris and Starmer are closely matched in approval overall though, 45% for Boris and 47% for Starmer and more Tory voters, 33% still disapprove of Starmer than the 26% who approve.
The Tories also still have a clear poll lead on 47%. While Starmer has increased the Labour voteshare from 32% at the last general election to 35% there are clearly a lot of Tory voters who will still not vote Labour even if they are less afraid of Starmer than Corbyn (though I suppose they might vote LD if they are Remainers and we go to WTO terms Brexit) https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1264296723310141440?s=20
I think that's a fair analysis of the position as it stood last week. I doubt if any of us can say with confidence where it will be in 6 months, let alone in 3 years.
I'm genuinely sorry for Boris's dilemma at a personal level. He is probably feeling very under par in an objectively very difficult situation, with his closest aide under extreme pressure. He's always wanted to be PM so won't give it up readily. His absence from the airwaves is increasingly marked, but when he goes on and gives a substandard performance his rating goes down. He is probably thinking "Thank God for the recess" and just hoping he gets better and the pressure eases.
But it does give the impression of drift. Supposedly we are having a big step towards lockdown easing in a week. The news should be full of the Government's preparations for it. Instead, they are preoccupied with defending Cummings.
Yes the Government has lost its mojo a bit but the evidence seems to be if Starmer gets in he will be more Wilson 1964 or 1974, with most Tory switchers going LD rather than Labour, than Blair 1997 where Tory switchers felt safe enough to vote for New Labour
Lib Dems returning to their high point of 60 seats would do big damage to the Tory majority.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
As you do not tire of telling us, Labour people do not run the country, and the hypocrisy charges are harder to stick. Anyway, Cummings is not even a member of the Conservative Party so far as I am aware.
Looks like you suspect they have. If Cummings goes, it will be open season on every last one of them, and that will be a joy to watch.
I think you are missing the point. If you think you have the virus you aren't suppose to go out and touch things like petrol pumps etc. So unless he managed the whole trip with filling up, going for a pee, buying food etc he will have done just that. He was at very high risk of spreading the virus.
And of course the issue with going out even if you don't intend to stop is you may not have any choice eg what if you breakdown which is why the Govt advised against driving to your place of exercise for instance, even if you didn't think you had the virus.
To me the big issue here and what makes it worse than the others is that he was aware there was a high probability he and his wife had it and was willing to spread it to others.
Joe Pike was of course the 'journalist' whose phone Boris pocketed when he shoved it in his face, a massive scandal that led to ... absolutely nothing
Not sure of Starmer yet, but keeping his powder dry and avoiding too many hostages to fortune seems incredibly sensible. Just let Tory MPs fight like rats in a sack is the way to go
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
It would be astonishing if every MP had behaved themselves.
Well, we know Kinnock Jnr didn’t, but the bigger risk is if someone in the shadow cabinet had been naughty. Of course, I think even us on PB would be hard pressed to recognise most of the shadow cabinet!
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
The lockdown is already over.
What we still have is a partial shutdown.
Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.
Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.
That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
I've had coronavirus. So I'm almost certainly immune.
You reckon?
Insofar as we know anything about this virus, yes. Scientific consensus is that there is immunity, though no one knows how long it lasts.
Joe Pike was of course the 'journalist' whose phone Boris pocketed when he shoved it in his face, a massive scandal that led to ... absolutely nothing
It’s excellent leadership. By not “politicising” this he deprives the Govt of a counterattack and allows it to dig its own grave, as it has been all weekend.
Raab never committed himself to the view that DC's explanation was true or justified his actions or that he should stay. And the others did broadly the same. From the off they were all hedging their bets on twitter.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
As you do not tire of telling us, Labour people do not run the country, and the hypocrisy charges are harder to stick. Anyway, Cummings is not even a member of the Conservative Party so far as I am aware.
Looks like you suspect they have. If Cummings goes, it will be open season on every last one of them, and that will be a joy to watch.
I don’t know and don’t care, I am not a Labour supporter.
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
The lockdown is already over.
What we still have is a partial shutdown.
Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.
Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.
That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
The shocking thing about Cummings is that his actions exposed other to a lethal risk, probably his parents....I don't believe the crap that he went to see his sister only
Well, one thing that is going to be rather difficult to lie about is whether there is really a separate house on the property that the Cummingses stayed in, and whether a third house would have been available for the sister to take care of the child in without putting the parents at risk.
My bet is still that there's only one house.
iirc there was a photo showing two houses.
they need three though unless Dom and family slept in the byre
Joe Pike was of course the 'journalist' whose phone Boris pocketed when he shoved it in his face, a massive scandal that led to ... absolutely nothing
It’s excellent leadership. By not “politicising” this he deprives the Govt of a counterattack and allows it to dig its own grave, as it has been all weekend.
Either Starmer is just very good at politics or he's been advised well but I am happy with his performance to date.
Still not sure where he stands on policy, suspect he's to the right of me but if he gets the Tories out, I am happy with that
As I said last night, the anger out in Middle England is off the scale.
Can't wait for some polling.
Is that anger at Cummings, or anger at lockdown though? I suspect its a big slice of the latter.
Actually lockdown is very popular and it is not hard to see why.
Coming out of lockdown is where all the dangers are.
Paying everyone close to their full salary not to work is always going to be popular.
Withdrawing that support, with a couple of million becoming unemployed in the process, is going to be a whole lot of trouble no matter who is in charge. Ditto with the eventual spending cuts needed to pay for all the extra borrowing.
UC will be a lot cheaper than furlough though, clock is ticking.
Exactly. I think there's a lot of people who think the furlough scheme will continue indefinitely, or that their employer can keep everyone working from home in the face of significantly reduced demand in the economy.
There's a severe recession happening, and there are going to be at least a couple of million P45s handed out over the next few months. I don't envy anyone in government anywhere right now, no matter what their own politics. The next couple of years are going to be horrific for everyone.
If Johnson cannot find a fridge to hide in before Wednesday, the Commons Liaison Committee gearing on Wednesday could be quite interesting. The PM's exchanges with Yvette Cooper may be worth a watch.
He has a flight booked to see Trump in America 10 mins before the scheduled appearance. (or to Durham to see his boss)
#1rule4them
The meeting you refer to is the G7 scheduled for June.
Surely you are not suggesting the UK PM should not go
Shapps claiming he doesn't know the dates and details of Cummings.
Unbelievable.
Not that unbelievable. Mrs Cummings seems to have been very confused about where they were during their illness despite writing a whole article about it and doing a Radio 4 interview.
If she and her husband had no idea it’s a bit much to expect poor Mr Shapps to know.
If you believe Mrs Cummings was really confused about where she'd been you must be very gullible indeed.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
We don't know that. The plan/hope/vague aspiration is for them to reopen then. Plenty won't. Regardless of the "legality" or otherwise. Plenty more won't be able to function at a profitable capacity.
Sure, but the quote was clearly misleading from one of the most consistently accurate posters on here.
1. He is not ending furlough, the terms are planned to change in August. 2. Most businesses are expected to be legally allowed to be open by then. 3. The details have not been released so we have no idea if there will be exemptions for the businesses that are mandated to be closed.
Sensible from Starmer, to be calling for an enquiry rather than a resignation at this stage.
He knows that calling for the resignation makes it less likely to happen, at least until the story of the trip to the castle is resolved one way or the other.
Sensible from Starmer, to be calling for an enquiry rather than a resignation at this stage.
He knows that calling for the resignation makes it less likely to happen, at least until the story of the trip to the castle is resolved one way or the other.
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
I don't give a toss what party a person belongs to or supports. It is what they do or don't do that counts. How can you be so partisan?
I think more likely that he Labour leader simply cannot guarantee that all Labour MPs and staff have followed the rules and doesn’t have the details on Dummings anyway. You can be sure that people are checking up on Labour folk right now.
Oh, if any Labour people have broken the rules ...
I don't give a toss what party a person belongs to or supports. It is what they do or don't do that counts. How can you be so partisan?
The person who upvoted your comment campaigned passionately for an anti-semite to become Prime Minister, so that kind of answers your question.
Scores of Tory MPs have said absolubtely nothing at all on the matter. I reckon they're all secretly hoping he'll be sacked so they don't have to debase themselves with the nonsense Shapps trotted out this morning or go against the PM.
The betting has been all over the place for the last few hours. I’m only allowed tiny stakes with Paddy Power. Even my small stakes cause them to move their prices. I know others will be betting but it may be a very illiquid market.
I’ve adjusted my positions. +£72.55 if he goes. -£1.20 if he stays. So I’ve got 60/1 on him going!
Sensible from Starmer, to be calling for an enquiry rather than a resignation at this stage.
He knows that calling for the resignation makes it less likely to happen, at least until the story of the trip to the castle is resolved one way or the other.
I suspect he knows there is more to come.
If he's in No.10 right now, I assume he's sitting with the PM and another senior minister, writing down every single move he's made over the past couple of months.
If it's just the trip to Durham as reported yesterday, he's probably safe as he means an awful lot to the PM - but if he's been making other trips around as reported today, or if there's anything he's done that hasn't so far been reported, then he's probably resigning this afternoon.
Joe Pike was of course the 'journalist' whose phone Boris pocketed when he shoved it in his face, a massive scandal that led to ... absolutely nothing
Yes, but it was clear at the time that it would lead to absolutely nothing. That is not a judgement made with hindsight, because I considered and discounted the effect of the incident to place my largest ever (embarrassingly small by local high roller standards) political bet on Con Maj.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
The lockdown is already over.
What we still have is a partial shutdown.
Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.
Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.
That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
I've had coronavirus. So I'm almost certainly immune. I won't be exposing myself to a potentially fatal disease.
Am I now allowed to do what the hell I like?
I wondered why we hadn't seen you. Sorry to hear you've been ill, glad to hear you've recovered. Another organist of my acquaintance here in S. Staffs had it pretty badly as well but otherwise as far as I know all acquaintances have been unaffected. Think that may be a function of where I live.
Interesting election result in Virginia yesterday - Republicans took hold of a City council in an area that had voted for Hillary in 2016 on a turnout that more than doubled since the last election (17000 vs 7000). Commentators putting it down to a major backlash against both the CV lockdown measures by Virginia's Dem Governor plus recent legislation on gun control and abortion,
I know a fair few on here were sceptical of the idea the Republicans would ever take Virginia in November but, if this is the spike in turnout they are getting for a city election, it suggests their base is massively fired up
Against Biden I expect Trump to do slightly worse than he did v Hillary in white working class areas and the Midwest and rustbelt but better than he did v Hillary in wealthy upper middle class areas like suburban Virginia and Orange County, California.
Plus as you say Trump's core vote remains fired up for him
Turnout will be key, which is why Joe Biden's "you ain't black" comment is particularly unfortunate. In states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia, if the Black vote doesn't come out to vote for Biden, hard to see him regaining these states.
This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -
Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -
I almost always disagree vehemently with Carole and her mad conspiracies, but there's probably a fair element of truth in that one.
Even if he goes, he'll keep writing extensively and ministers such as Gove will keep reading closely what he has to say - although I doubt they'll pay him for it directly.
Interesting election result in Virginia yesterday - Republicans took hold of a City council in an area that had voted for Hillary in 2016 on a turnout that more than doubled since the last election (17000 vs 7000). Commentators putting it down to a major backlash against both the CV lockdown measures by Virginia's Dem Governor plus recent legislation on gun control and abortion,
I know a fair few on here were sceptical of the idea the Republicans would ever take Virginia in November but, if this is the spike in turnout they are getting for a city election, it suggests their base is massively fired up
Against Biden I expect Trump to do slightly worse than he did v Hillary in white working class areas and the Midwest and rustbelt but better than he did v Hillary in wealthy upper middle class areas like suburban Virginia and Orange County, California.
Plus as you say Trump's core vote remains fired up for him
Turnout will be key, which is why Joe Biden's "you ain't black" comment is particularly unfortunate. In states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia, if the Black vote doesn't come out to vote for Biden, hard to see him regaining these states.
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
This is what the Times article says: “All employers using the scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they are still under lockdown.”
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
I would wait to see more detail.
Rishi is switched on and I expect he will assess each sector of the economy on needs
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
Looks like you were completely unable to address my point, so that's telling in itself
That’s because you didn’t have one. I am not one of the people who thought the prorogation decision would bring down the government, or result in Johnson or Cummings going, or indeed having any measurable effect on any (yet to be called) election. I also thought that, because of Corbyn, a Tory victory was nailed on. So I can’t really defend the position you ask me to.
However I do know this issue is going to be like Black Wednesday in 1992 - people will remember this in 2024 the same way people remembered Black Wednesday in 1997. Black Wednesday hit people in their pockets (I remember my Dad freaking out about the mortgage) and irreparably damaged the Government. It never recovered. The decision of Lady Hale and her colleagues last year was about an arcane bit of constitutional law no one cared about. This, however, is about a government defending a man who put voter’s lives at risk by quite possibly acting as a super spreader from London to the North East, and certainly breaching strongly supported lockdown regs . The differences between the two situations you outline are blindingly obvious. And Corbyn’s gone.
Black Wednesday was about a serious failure of a key plank of government policy, that resulted in a severe recession, this is about whether or not an advisor to the government stayed in one place or another during a natural disaster. I doubt very much that anyone will be talking about it during the 2024 election campaign.
It seems from this morning that the government have called the most serious reports of DC's behaviour as outright wrong. I suspect that if the papers concerned have evidence then he's toast, but if they don't then the story will be chip paper by next week.
What will be fatal for Boris's government is if the perceived wisdom settles on the fact that they handled this crisis worse than just about every other country in Europe. If that becomes the case it will not disappear by 2024
This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
We don't know that. The plan/hope/vague aspiration is for them to reopen then. Plenty won't. Regardless of the "legality" or otherwise. Plenty more won't be able to function at a profitable capacity.
Sure, but the quote was clearly misleading from one of the most consistently accurate posters on here.
1. He is not ending furlough, the terms are planned to change in August. 2. Most businesses are expected to be legally allowed to be open by then. 3. The details have not been released so we have no idea if there will be exemptions for the businesses that are mandated to be closed.
I have given you the quote from the story.
Let’s see what the precise details are. But if they are as reported it is a disastrous and very very stupid decision which will help yet more misery on millions.
Interesting election result in Virginia yesterday - Republicans took hold of a City council in an area that had voted for Hillary in 2016 on a turnout that more than doubled since the last election (17000 vs 7000). Commentators putting it down to a major backlash against both the CV lockdown measures by Virginia's Dem Governor plus recent legislation on gun control and abortion,
I know a fair few on here were sceptical of the idea the Republicans would ever take Virginia in November but, if this is the spike in turnout they are getting for a city election, it suggests their base is massively fired up
Against Biden I expect Trump to do slightly worse than he did v Hillary in white working class areas and the Midwest and rustbelt but better than he did v Hillary in wealthy upper middle class areas like suburban Virginia and Orange County, California.
Plus as you say Trump's core vote remains fired up for him
Turnout will be key, which is why Joe Biden's "you ain't black" comment is particularly unfortunate. In states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia, if the Black vote doesn't come out to vote for Biden, hard to see him regaining these states.
Ps delete the regain Virginia comment
Hover your cursor top right of the offending post till a settings icon appears, then click to get the option of editing, in the next 3 minutes and you can delete it yourself.
Comments
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientists-conclude-people-cannot-be-infected-twice-11981721
Lord Dominic of Covid has certain ring to it... but "Sauron" may be more apt
Joe Pike was of course the 'journalist' whose phone Boris pocketed when he shoved it in his face, a massive scandal that led to ... absolutely nothing
1. He is not ending furlough, the terms are planned to change in August.
2. Most businesses are expected to be legally allowed to be open by then.
3. The details have not been released so we have no idea if there will be exemptions for the businesses that are mandated to be closed.
#1rule4them
And of course the issue with going out even if you don't intend to stop is you may not have any choice eg what if you breakdown which is why the Govt advised against driving to your place of exercise for instance, even if you didn't think you had the virus.
To me the big issue here and what makes it worse than the others is that he was aware there was a high probability he and his wife had it and was willing to spread it to others.
- Napoleon Bonaparte
Er...Robert Jenrick.
Still not sure where he stands on policy, suspect he's to the right of me but if he gets the Tories out, I am happy with that
There's a severe recession happening, and there are going to be at least a couple of million P45s handed out over the next few months. I don't envy anyone in government anywhere right now, no matter what their own politics. The next couple of years are going to be horrific for everyone.
1. Wonderful double negative reversing the meaning of the sentence.
2. 'Allies of Cummings' LOL!
He knows that calling for the resignation makes it less likely to happen, at least until the story of the trip to the castle is resolved one way or the other.
FFS why didnt you stay at home
#1rule4them
Looks like I was wrong by a day. He will be gone by 4pm.
I reckon they're all secretly hoping he'll be sacked so they don't have to debase themselves with the nonsense Shapps trotted out this morning or go against the PM.
I’ve adjusted my positions. +£72.55 if he goes. -£1.20 if he stays. So I’ve got 60/1 on him going!
If so that return trip south was equally unacceptable.
Great example to the rest of the country, that rules are not for them.
If it's just the trip to Durham as reported yesterday, he's probably safe as he means an awful lot to the PM - but if he's been making other trips around as reported today, or if there's anything he's done that hasn't so far been reported, then he's probably resigning this afternoon.
How employers who are legally closed are supposed to pay wages when they have no income coming in is a mystery.
My daughter has been alternately incandescent with fury and in tears since this came out. Tim Farron has been lobbying hard for the Lakes hospitality sector - https://timfarron.co.uk/en/article/2020/1361129/terrifying-unemployment-figures-shows-need-for-long-term-support-package-for-cumbrian-hospitality-and-tourism-industry-mp - and has asked for hospitality firms to be exempt - https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1263945671557742594?s=21.
If Sunak goes ahead it will be a disaster or so many businesses and people. Those newly elected Tory MPs round here can kiss goodbye to their majorities.
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1264485332252348417
But the CPS is useless regardless of this case. That has been demonstrated time and again
Even if he goes, he'll keep writing extensively and ministers such as Gove will keep reading closely what he has to say - although I doubt they'll pay him for it directly.
Gonna cost the tories though, as I don't thinik anyone will be happy about his salary coming from public coffers.
Rishi is switched on and I expect he will assess each sector of the economy on needs
Does that count as 2?
Let’s see what the precise details are. But if they are as reported it is a disastrous and very very stupid decision which will help yet more misery on millions.