Of course if Johnson sacks Cummings now he just reinforces the idea he follows, rather than leads.
"Weak, weak, weak"
Indeed, this is what I was saying last night. OGH thinks it makes Boris look week if DC stays, I think it makes him look week if, after all this, he bows to pressure.
At the end of the day, Boris has an 80 seat majority and the fish and chips this news will be wrapped around tomorrow will be four years old by the time of the next election.
Yep - time to show strength. If Boris and Cummings manage to sail through the worst the press and Opposition can throw at them now, they will be utterly invincible.
Elated anti-Tories should also remember how they felt the day of Lady Hale's verdict concerning the prorogation, when many thought that Cummings and Boris were finished, and that both Brexit and the Conservative Government - which at that time had no majority whatsoever - were doomed.
Spoiler alert: they weren't.
Seriously reprising your back catalogue now. Got anything a bit newer?
Facts don't change just because people get bored of them. This is one of the best politics forums on the internet, but its Achiles' heel is an addiction to short-termism and ephemeral headlines and scandals - the un-prorogation is a locus classicus for that failing.
'This too shall pass' should be the default response to _any_ headline, good or bad, until proven otherwise.
There was a cartoon in PE in about 1995 of a couple of German soldiers standing in the ruins of Berlin, one of them saying "Nothing to worry about - just a typical mid-term result."
Huge political stories can be about trivial matters like taking speeding points or claiming a couple of grand for the moat. This is not about trivia, it feeds directly in to the biggest news story since Cuban missiles; and it's not about backbenchers and Libdems, it's about the tory government. You may be right that it's a 9 days wonder, but that's not the way the clever money is betting.
"Gove at 15.5 stands out - he’d definitely be a runner. Lay Sunak at 6.6 - he almost certainly won’t be. Lay favourite Starmer at 2.9 - if Boris goes then the next PM will be a Conservative."
Hmm. Almost tempted to shift some money into Betfair just to hedge my Sunak bet.
When you ignore all the huff and puff and all the typical smearing from the left and the remainers who hate Cummings, the reality is that Cummings has become the story.
I seemed to be the only person surprised that people including the current PM could develop such strong positions on Mays 500 page plus WA within 5 minutes of reading it.
This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -
Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -
Somebody somewhere believed Ferguson. Whether or not it was Cummings I don't know, but Ferguson was exactly the kind of person Cummings thought should be close to government. The sort of person he posted job adverts for.
When Corona came along here was a chance to drive policy the way Cummings, from his blogposts, thought it should be driven. By nerdy mathy outsiders with computer models.
The results are, well, judge for yourself.
I think what you have here is where the "realities" of data hits the realities of politics.
The initial data suggested we go herd immunity, no lockdown. Then when the Italian data came out, they extrapolated that this could kill up to 250k people.
It was the correct decision at the time, based on the facts available, to go into a precautionary lockdown to prevent the NHS from collapsing.
But a lot of the "facts" from then were proven wrong as more data emerged. That is why we did not end up needing thousands of ventilators and why the Nightingale hospitals have stood empty.
The trouble is that even though new facts have emerged since then, it is politically impossible to roll back the lockdown without suffering bad press and being called a butcher. Despite the fact it is unnecessary, despite the fact we are destroying our economy without good reason.
So ultimately this is not a government driven by data, it is one driven by headlines. Which is why I think Boris might cave to pressure on Dom. And why we are stuck with this bloody endless lockdown.
Instead of worrying about the PM going, perhaps the Cabinet should be welcoming such an eventuality.
Boris Johnson isn't up to the job. From a party political perspective, as well as a national one, the Conservatives are better off with someone else.
Sadly I think many people that voted for him to be leader and then PM knew he wasn't up to the job but thought it wouldn't really matter as long as he pushed Brexit through. We are now all paying the price for that.
We are witnessing the stresses in the vote leave campaigns emerging
The ones calling for Cummings to go are in the main no dealers
I believe Cunmings should go and without delay. Not because of nuances of his story but the impression it has left with the public. He may or may not have broken the rules but the message to the public is being damaged
As far as I am concerned Brexit has happened and we will not be re-joining the EU. I was surprised but pleased that Starmer confirmed that we will not re-join and I expect staying in the single market will be the UK's eventual destination
I thought the most telling interview this morning was with Steve Baker. Although there is clearly animosity between him and Cummings, what he said had the ring of truth. In particular, that Cabinet ministers need to show loyalty to Cummings if they are to keep their jobs, and ambitious MPs hoping for future preference need to do the same. Hence the supine Cabinet appointed by Boris (Cummings) in the first place, and Javid's rapid departure from it. He holds far too much power for an unelected SPAD.
Even in the days of the all-powerful Alistair Campbell, I'm confident that Blair controlled Cabinet appointments himself.
Boris is trapped. He can't keep Cummings, but neither can he let him go. He needs him to do the hard yards.
Instead of worrying about the PM going, perhaps the Cabinet should be welcoming such an eventuality.
Boris Johnson isn't up to the job. From a party political perspective, as well as a national one, the Conservatives are better off with someone else.
But not somebody else from the current cabinet, is the point.
There was a very interesting interview with Jeremy Hunt (Political Conversation I think) with Nick Robinson.
Hunt said he was looking to having a 3-4 year break from front line politics “to be a better Dad”.
That was a very interesting timeline. Bridges the likely next election date.
Sounds like a contender for the next Tory leader market, if we get a change of government at the general election.
Yes - although I got my dates wrong and 3-4 years is just before the next election.
May be reading too much into it, but does he think Boris will go?
I assumed he was saying he's keeping his head down on the back benches for now, but not ruling out a return to front-line politics in the future. He has three young children whom he keeps out of the public, and probably just wants to spend more time with them after a decade of full-time ministerial service.
I'm not sure he was making much of a comment on PM resigning soon, although I would be surprised if JH were a non-runner should a a vacancy occur before the next election.
Somebody somewhere believed Ferguson. Whether or not it was Cummings I don't know, but Ferguson was exactly the kind of person Cummings thought should be close to government. The sort of person he posted job adverts for.
When Corona came along here was a chance to drive policy the way Cummings, from his blogposts, thought it should be driven. By nerdy mathy outsiders with computer models.
The results are, well, judge for yourself.
I think what you have here is where the "realities" of data hits the realities of politics.
The initial data suggested we go herd immunity, no lockdown. Then when the Italian data came out, they extrapolated that this could kill up to 250k people.
It was the correct decision at the time, based on the facts available, to go into a precautionary lockdown to prevent the NHS from collapsing.
But a lot of the "facts" from then were proven wrong as more data emerged. That is why we did not end up needing thousands of ventilators and why the Nightingale hospitals have stood empty.
Absolute nonsense. The estimates of transmissibility and fatality rate haven't been revised downwards. If anything, the fatality rate looks to be higher than it looked then. If this virus infected 60% of the population, about 0.6% of the population would die, even if adequate health care were available. That's about 400,000 people. And it's entirely consistent with the estimates of the percentages who were infected and who died. Obviously, it was the counter-measures, such as the lockdown, that prevented that happening.
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
"Gove at 15.5 stands out - he’d definitely be a runner. Lay Sunak at 6.6 - he almost certainly won’t be. Lay favourite Starmer at 2.9 - if Boris goes then the next PM will be a Conservative."
Hmm. Almost tempted to shift some money into Betfair just to hedge my Sunak bet.
If Boris falls, then the next person with be from outside the Corona inner circle, in my view.
We are witnessing the stresses in the vote leave campaigns emerging
The ones calling for Cummings to go are in the main no dealers
I believe Cunmings should go and without delay. Not because of nuances of his story but the impression it has left with the public. He may or may not have broken the rules but the message to the public is being damaged
As far as I am concerned Brexit has happened and we will not be re-joining the EU. I was surprised but pleased that Starmer confirmed that we will not re-join and I expect staying in the single market will be the UK's eventual destination
Staying in the single market can only be a temporary solution because eventually we will see the absurdity of being outside the room while our destiny is decided.
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
Looks like you were completely unable to address my point, so that's telling in itself
That’s because you didn’t have one. I am not one of the people who thought the prorogation decision would bring down the government, or result in Johnson or Cummings going, or indeed having any measurable effect on any (yet to be called) election. I also thought that, because of Corbyn, a Tory victory was nailed on. So I can’t really defend the position you ask me to.
However I do know this issue is going to be like Black Wednesday in 1992 - people will remember this in 2024 the same way people remembered Black Wednesday in 1997. Black Wednesday hit people in their pockets (I remember my Dad freaking out about the mortgage) and irreparably damaged the Government. It never recovered. The decision of Lady Hale and her colleagues last year was about an arcane bit of constitutional law no one cared about. This, however, is about a government defending a man who put voter’s lives at risk by quite possibly acting as a super spreader from London to the North East, and certainly breaching strongly supported lockdown regs . The differences between the two situations you outline are blindingly obvious. And Corbyn’s gone.
Black Wednesday was about a serious failure of a key plank of government policy, that resulted in a severe recession, this is about whether or not an advisor to the government stayed in one place or another during a natural disaster. I doubt very much that anyone will be talking about it during the 2024 election campaign.
It seems from this morning that the government have called the most serious reports of DC's behaviour as outright wrong. I suspect that if the papers concerned have evidence then he's toast, but if they don't then the story will be chip paper by next week.
They have not denied the 12 April trip and “chip paper” is very 20th Century. This is an embodiment of am even worse failure of Govt policy than the ERM - unless you think our C-19 body count is a success. Suitable manipulation of social media will be able to keep this going for a very long time. Which is why, despite what you constantly repeat, Labour is not demanding his resignation, They want him in place.
HOLD ON! I'M CUMMINGS! ----------------------------------- Don't you ever be sad Lean on me, when the rules are bad When the day comes and you're locked down With public opinion about to frown
Just hold on, I'm Cummings Hold on, Dom Cummings
I'm on my way, to Durham If you get the virus, I won't give a damn! Don't worry about the rules, 'cause I'm here No need for contrition, 'cause I'm here
Just hold on, I'm Cummings Hold on, Dom Cummings Hold on, I'm Cummings Hold on, Dom Cummings
Reach out to me for special advice, yeah Call my name, yeah, and pay the price Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah!
Mr. Contrarian, vielleicht. There's a long way to go with the pandemic and the political impact thereof, so any 'newcomer' will still end up affected by the Government's handling of it (even if that dates from their premiership only).
I thought the most telling interview this morning was with Steve Baker. Although there is clearly animosity between him and Cummings, what he said had the ring of truth. In particular, that Cabinet ministers need to show loyalty to Cummings if they are to keep their jobs, and ambitious MPs hoping for future preference need to do the same. Hence the supine Cabinet appointed by Boris (Cummings) in the first place, and Javid's rapid departure from it. He holds far too much power for an unelected SPAD.
Even in the days of the all-powerful Alistair Campbell, I'm confident that Blair controlled Cabinet appointments himself.
Boris is trapped. He can't keep Cummings, but neither can he let him go. He needs him to do the hard yards.
What a dilemma.
Javed might be an interesting figure to look at for next leader.
When you ignore all the huff and puff and all the typical smearing from the left and the remainers who hate Cummings, the reality is that Cummings has become the story.
He has no option but to go. its not if its when.
It really has little to do with politics, it's the hypocrisy that rankles. It looked quite clear to me on Friday that Cummings had to go. It simply isn't good enough for him to make such flimsy excuses for his actions, which at best require an extremely generous interpretation of the rules as most people understood them. If the new allegations are true he ought to be sacked before I finish typing.
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Cummings is completely disposable, given the next election is 4 years away.
We are witnessing the stresses in the vote leave campaigns emerging
The ones calling for Cummings to go are in the main no dealers
I believe Cunmings should go and without delay. Not because of nuances of his story but the impression it has left with the public. He may or may not have broken the rules but the message to the public is being damaged
As far as I am concerned Brexit has happened and we will not be re-joining the EU. I was surprised but pleased that Starmer confirmed that we will not re-join and I expect staying in the single market will be the UK's eventual destination
Staying in the single market can only be a temporary solution because eventually we will see the absurdity of being outside the room while our destiny is decided.
Between 2016 and now the world has moved from a positions where borders were becoming more and more open to one where there is a trade war between the USA and China with the EU in the middle. The EU is large enough to try and avoid picking a side the UK isn't big enough to do so.
And the EU then may have no choice but to work against the UK as the next phase kicks off.
Does Tesco not do home deliveries in London like the rest of the nation?
Actually as an aside, there was a period for several weeks where in rural areas, unless you were registered as elderly, it was absolutely impossible to get any delivery slots with any supermarket with less than a 3 week waiting time. I suspect it was much better in London than elsewhere on this score.
London wasnt much better from the high street supermarkets, if at all. The only way I could do it was logging on at midnight which worked with tesco and morrison (with the 3 week wait) until others caught on to the strategy. The difference is probably the amount of small scale operations who would deliver goods at a premium is much higher here.
Presumably Number 10 could have sent round a minion to drop stuff off from time to time?
Each new excuse gets even more ridiculous.
Fwiw a friend who was (and is) shielding in a London block of flats did just that, relying on neighbours to drop off shopping outside the door. It's not data science.
When you ignore all the huff and puff and all the typical smearing from the left and the remainers who hate Cummings, the reality is that Cummings has become the story.
He has no option but to go. its not if its when.
It really has little to do with politics, it's the hypocrisy that rankles. It looked quite clear to me on Friday that Cummings had to go. It simply isn't good enough for him to make such flimsy excuses for his actions, which at best require an extremely generous interpretation of the rules as most people understood them. If the new allegations are true he ought to be sacked before I finish typing.
When you ignore all the huff and puff and all the typical smearing from the left and the remainers who hate Cummings, the reality is that Cummings has become the story.
He has no option but to go. its not if its when.
It really has little to do with politics, it's the hypocrisy that rankles. It looked quite clear to me on Friday that Cummings had to go. It simply isn't good enough for him to make such flimsy excuses for his actions, which at best require an extremely generous interpretation of the rules as most people understood them. If the new allegations are true he ought to be sacked before I finish typing.
It has everything to do with politics. They want to get Cummings by any means possible.
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Unhelpful metaphor, I think. Journalists are always hungry for the next kill if they are good at their job, and anyway keeping DC in place ought to be their preferred option, because story about PM's adviser sells 10x the copies of story about PM's former adviser.
Of course if Johnson sacks Cummings now he just reinforces the idea he follows, rather than leads.
"Weak, weak, weak"
Indeed, this is what I was saying last night. OGH thinks it makes Boris look week if DC stays, I think it makes him look week if, after all this, he bows to pressure.
At the end of the day, Boris has an 80 seat majority and the fish and chips this news will be wrapped around tomorrow will be four years old by the time of the next election.
Yep - time to show strength. If Boris and Cummings manage to sail through the worst the press and Opposition can throw at them now, they will be utterly invincible.
Elated anti-Tories should also remember how they felt the day of Lady Hale's verdict concerning the prorogation, when many thought that Cummings and Boris were finished, and that both Brexit and the Conservative Government - which at that time had no majority whatsoever - were doomed.
Spoiler alert: they weren't.
Seriously reprising your back catalogue now. Got anything a bit newer?
Facts don't change just because people get bored of them. This is one of the best politics forums on the internet, but its Achiles' heel is an addiction to short-termism and ephemeral headlines and scandals - the un-prorogation is a locus classicus for that failing.
'This too shall pass' should be the default response to _any_ headline, good or bad, until proven otherwise.
There was a cartoon in PE in about 1995 of a couple of German soldiers standing in the ruins of Berlin, one of them saying "Nothing to worry about - just a typical mid-term result."
Huge political stories can be about trivial matters like taking speeding points or claiming a couple of grand for the moat. This is not about trivia, it feeds directly in to the biggest news story since Cuban missiles; and it's not about backbenchers and Libdems, it's about the tory government. You may be right that it's a 9 days wonder, but that's not the way the clever money is betting.
Hogg never claimed for the moat.
That was a juicy story spun up by the Telegraph.
The salaries of the live in housekeeper/gardener couple exceeded the expenses limit.
Of course if Johnson sacks Cummings now he just reinforces the idea he follows, rather than leads.
"Weak, weak, weak"
Indeed, this is what I was saying last night. OGH thinks it makes Boris look week if DC stays, I think it makes him look week if, after all this, he bows to pressure.
At the end of the day, Boris has an 80 seat majority and the fish and chips this news will be wrapped around tomorrow will be four years old by the time of the next election.
Yep - time to show strength. If Boris and Cummings manage to sail through the worst the press and Opposition can throw at them now, they will be utterly invincible.
Elated anti-Tories should also remember how they felt the day of Lady Hale's verdict concerning the prorogation, when many thought that Cummings and Boris were finished, and that both Brexit and the Conservative Government - which at that time had no majority whatsoever - were doomed.
Spoiler alert: they weren't.
Seriously reprising your back catalogue now. Got anything a bit newer?
Facts don't change just because people get bored of them. This is one of the best politics forums on the internet, but its Achiles' heel is an addiction to short-termism and ephemeral headlines and scandals - the un-prorogation is a locus classicus for that failing.
'This too shall pass' should be the default response to _any_ headline, good or bad, until proven otherwise.
There was a cartoon in PE in about 1995 of a couple of German soldiers standing in the ruins of Berlin, one of them saying "Nothing to worry about - just a typical mid-term result."
Huge political stories can be about trivial matters like taking speeding points or claiming a couple of grand for the moat. This is not about trivia, it feeds directly in to the biggest news story since Cuban missiles; and it's not about backbenchers and Libdems, it's about the tory government. You may be right that it's a 9 days wonder, but that's not the way the clever money is betting.
Today is the moment of maximum heat, stress, and noise, but once it passes it just gets tossed on the pile of past 'scandals'.
Remember the boy on the floor, and Boris taking the reporter's phone? That swayed public opinion so strongly that the MRP had the Tory majority drop to 28.
That was just a few days before the general election, when public attention was at its height, and it was a very human story about the failings of both the NHS and the PM.
Two days later, the public forgot about it, and the rest is history. Very rarely does a single 'scandal' dictate the future.
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
I have two clear memories of the 1978 FA cup. John Wile's bloodied and bandaged head (we was robbed) in the Semi, and an Arsenal fan's banner at Wembley which read something like 'Big Willie covers Featherlite Mariner' (or better still the complete opposite- it was along time ago!).
Happier days- we hadn't even had the winter of discontent at that point.
My mother’s family is from Felixstowe and were big fans. I was only four at the time but we were visiting my Grandparents so I was sat in front of the TV, wrapped in a blue and white scarf, given a blue and white teddy bear, and the rest is history.
My Dad is from York, and actually played in the Minstermen reserves, so it could have been worse...
My friend who is an NHS nurse on the frontline hasn't seen her parents for two months; my widowed sister-in-law, on her own,hasn't seen another person for two months. My son hasn't been able to do a job that he really loves for two months. Meanwhile Boris's rough-sleeper chum Cummings can thumb his nose and tell us that rules don't apply to him, and Boris acquiesces. People won't tolerate this, superimposed on all the previous lies and incompetence, and Boris's invisibility.
In many ways I hope that Boris keeps supporting his rough-sleeper chum, because doing so will be the beginning of the end for Boris.
Looks like it's over as far as Tory MPs are concerned. Very large number have still said nothing at all on the subject. It is hard to imagine all those who want to keep their seats now fighting a rear guard action from the bunker.
This is all panning out exactly as the opposition parties would want. That Johnson wishes to make it so clear he is so reliant on Cummings is fascinating. It looks like we are at a point that is way beyond his personal competence.
We are witnessing the stresses in the vote leave campaigns emerging
The ones calling for Cummings to go are in the main no dealers
I believe Cunmings should go and without delay. Not because of nuances of his story but the impression it has left with the public. He may or may not have broken the rules but the message to the public is being damaged
As far as I am concerned Brexit has happened and we will not be re-joining the EU. I was surprised but pleased that Starmer confirmed that we will not re-join and I expect staying in the single market will be the UK's eventual destination
Staying in the single market can only be a temporary solution because eventually we will see the absurdity of being outside the room while our destiny is decided.
I am sorry William but re-joining is years away if ever, especially now Starmer has accepted brexit
Somebody somewhere believed Ferguson. Whether or not it was Cummings I don't know, but Ferguson was exactly the kind of person Cummings thought should be close to government. The sort of person he posted job adverts for.
When Corona came along here was a chance to drive policy the way Cummings, from his blogposts, thought it should be driven. By nerdy mathy outsiders with computer models.
The results are, well, judge for yourself.
I think what you have here is where the "realities" of data hits the realities of politics.
The initial data suggested we go herd immunity, no lockdown. Then when the Italian data came out, they extrapolated that this could kill up to 250k people.
It was the correct decision at the time, based on the facts available, to go into a precautionary lockdown to prevent the NHS from collapsing.
But a lot of the "facts" from then were proven wrong as more data emerged. That is why we did not end up needing thousands of ventilators and why the Nightingale hospitals have stood empty.
Absolute nonsense. The estimates of transmissibility and fatality rate haven't been revised downwards. If anything, the fatality rate looks to be higher than it looked then. If this virus infected 60% of the population, about 0.6% of the population would die, even if adequate health care were available. That's about 400,000 people. And it's entirely consistent with the estimates of the percentages who were infected and who died. Obviously, it was the counter-measures, such as the lockdown, that prevented that happening.
What is now quite clear, that was not clear before, is that it is only the elderly and vulnerable who are at risk of death.
On last night's thread we discussed how the under 45s are more likely to be struck by lightning than die of this. Someone also pointed out that twice as many people die from falling down stairs in any given year as the number of under 45s who have died of this.
The point that some of us have been making for a while is that the whole country has now been unnecessarily scared into a lockdown that is damaging everything from our economy to our health to our childrens' education.
When in fact what we need to be doing is shielding the elderly and vulnerable and getting everyone else back to some kind of normality.
However it is not politically expedient to do so, hence the Hotel California lockdown we now find ourselves in, where half the country is heading to the beach to enjoy the bank holiday weekend but businesses across the country remain shut.
This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -
Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -
Somebody somewhere believed Ferguson. Whether or not it was Cummings I don't know, but Ferguson was exactly the kind of person Cummings thought should be close to government. The sort of person he posted job adverts for.
When Corona came along here was a chance to drive policy the way Cummings, from his blogposts, thought it should be driven. By nerdy mathy outsiders with computer models.
The results are, well, judge for yourself.
I think what you have here is where the "realities" of data hits the realities of politics.
The initial data suggested we go herd immunity, no lockdown. Then when the Italian data came out, they extrapolated that this could kill up to 250k people.
It was the correct decision at the time, based on the facts available, to go into a precautionary lockdown to prevent the NHS from collapsing.
But a lot of the "facts" from then were proven wrong as more data emerged. That is why we did not end up needing thousands of ventilators and why the Nightingale hospitals have stood empty.
Your facts seem to ignore the "fact" that a lockdown was implemented. Far from proving the "facts wrong" the results seem to corroborate that the lockdown spared the UK from a Spain or Italy worst case scenario, but it was close!
Somebody somewhere believed Ferguson. Whether or not it was Cummings I don't know, but Ferguson was exactly the kind of person Cummings thought should be close to government. The sort of person he posted job adverts for.
When Corona came along here was a chance to drive policy the way Cummings, from his blogposts, thought it should be driven. By nerdy mathy outsiders with computer models.
The results are, well, judge for yourself.
I think what you have here is where the "realities" of data hits the realities of politics.
The initial data suggested we go herd immunity, no lockdown. Then when the Italian data came out, they extrapolated that this could kill up to 250k people.
It was the correct decision at the time, based on the facts available, to go into a precautionary lockdown to prevent the NHS from collapsing.
But a lot of the "facts" from then were proven wrong as more data emerged. That is why we did not end up needing thousands of ventilators and why the Nightingale hospitals have stood empty.
Absolute nonsense. The estimates of transmissibility and fatality rate haven't been revised downwards. If anything, the fatality rate looks to be higher than it looked then. If this virus infected 60% of the population, about 0.6% of the population would die, even if adequate health care were available. That's about 400,000 people. And it's entirely consistent with the estimates of the percentages who were infected and who died. Obviously, it was the counter-measures, such as the lockdown, that prevented that happening.
Quite right. The number for R (uncontrolled), the hospitalisation rate, the ventilation rate and fatality rate were all known by mid Feb or earlier.
The suggestion that "the science changed" has always been risible. It was the focus groups that changed when they saw the grim reaper heading their way. That is why Cummings did the reverse ferret on herd immunity.
Of course if Johnson sacks Cummings now he just reinforces the idea he follows, rather than leads.
"Weak, weak, weak"
Indeed, this is what I was saying last night. OGH thinks it makes Boris look week if DC stays, I think it makes him look week if, after all this, he bows to pressure.
At the end of the day, Boris has an 80 seat majority and the fish and chips this news will be wrapped around tomorrow will be four years old by the time of the next election.
Yep - time to show strength. If Boris and Cummings manage to sail through the worst the press and Opposition can throw at them now, they will be utterly invincible.
Elated anti-Tories should also remember how they felt the day of Lady Hale's verdict concerning the prorogation, when many thought that Cummings and Boris were finished, and that both Brexit and the Conservative Government - which at that time had no majority whatsoever - were doomed.
Spoiler alert: they weren't.
Seriously reprising your back catalogue now. Got anything a bit newer?
Facts don't change just because people get bored of them. This is one of the best politics forums on the internet, but its Achiles' heel is an addiction to short-termism and ephemeral headlines and scandals - the un-prorogation is a locus classicus for that failing.
'This too shall pass' should be the default response to _any_ headline, good or bad, until proven otherwise.
There was a cartoon in PE in about 1995 of a couple of German soldiers standing in the ruins of Berlin, one of them saying "Nothing to worry about - just a typical mid-term result."
Huge political stories can be about trivial matters like taking speeding points or claiming a couple of grand for the moat. This is not about trivia, it feeds directly in to the biggest news story since Cuban missiles; and it's not about backbenchers and Libdems, it's about the tory government. You may be right that it's a 9 days wonder, but that's not the way the clever money is betting.
Hogg never claimed for the moat.
That was a juicy story spun up by the Telegraph.
The salaries of the live in housekeeper/gardener couple exceeded the expenses limit.
He just accidentally mentioned it when claiming expenses?
Summary (but best to read it yourself): outdoors risk is low, even if you pass panting joggers etc., shared building risk is high if you share the same breathing cycle anywhere (even visiting the bathroom after an infected person or on a different floor), risk of being a carrier much the same from age 21 onwards, and non-trivial at all ages.
This suggests to me that the future of continental style outside cafes is not bad, but indoor eating is a bad idea for the forseeable future. Hotel rooms also look dodgy. I suspect that people will overwhelmingly choose to visit friends to stay/eat rather than staying/eating out.
Somebody somewhere believed Ferguson. Whether or not it was Cummings I don't know, but Ferguson was exactly the kind of person Cummings thought should be close to government. The sort of person he posted job adverts for.
When Corona came along here was a chance to drive policy the way Cummings, from his blogposts, thought it should be driven. By nerdy mathy outsiders with computer models.
The results are, well, judge for yourself.
I think what you have here is where the "realities" of data hits the realities of politics.
The initial data suggested we go herd immunity, no lockdown. Then when the Italian data came out, they extrapolated that this could kill up to 250k people.
It was the correct decision at the time, based on the facts available, to go into a precautionary lockdown to prevent the NHS from collapsing.
But a lot of the "facts" from then were proven wrong as more data emerged. That is why we did not end up needing thousands of ventilators and why the Nightingale hospitals have stood empty.
Your facts seem to ignore the "fact" that a lockdown was implemented. Far from proving the "facts wrong" the results seem to corroborate that the lockdown spared the UK from a Spain or Italy worst case scenario, but it was close!
Both those lockdowns were far more severe than ours
Of course if Johnson sacks Cummings now he just reinforces the idea he follows, rather than leads.
"Weak, weak, weak"
Indeed, this is what I was saying last night. OGH thinks it makes Boris look week if DC stays, I think it makes him look week if, after all this, he bows to pressure.
At the end of the day, Boris has an 80 seat majority and the fish and chips this news will be wrapped around tomorrow will be four years old by the time of the next election.
Yep - time to show strength. If Boris and Cummings manage to sail through the worst the press and Opposition can throw at them now, they will be utterly invincible.
Elated anti-Tories should also remember how they felt the day of Lady Hale's verdict concerning the prorogation, when many thought that Cummings and Boris were finished, and that both Brexit and the Conservative Government - which at that time had no majority whatsoever - were doomed.
Spoiler alert: they weren't.
Seriously reprising your back catalogue now. Got anything a bit newer?
Facts don't change just because people get bored of them. This is one of the best politics forums on the internet, but its Achiles' heel is an addiction to short-termism and ephemeral headlines and scandals - the un-prorogation is a locus classicus for that failing.
'This too shall pass' should be the default response to _any_ headline, good or bad, until proven otherwise.
There was a cartoon in PE in about 1995 of a couple of German soldiers standing in the ruins of Berlin, one of them saying "Nothing to worry about - just a typical mid-term result."
Huge political stories can be about trivial matters like taking speeding points or claiming a couple of grand for the moat. This is not about trivia, it feeds directly in to the biggest news story since Cuban missiles; and it's not about backbenchers and Libdems, it's about the tory government. You may be right that it's a 9 days wonder, but that's not the way the clever money is betting.
Today is the moment of maximum heat, stress, and noise, but once it passes it just gets tossed on the pile of past 'scandals'.
Remember the boy on the floor, and Boris taking the reporter's phone? That swayed public opinion so strongly that the MRP had the Tory majority drop to 28.
That was just a few days before the general election, when public attention was at its height, and it was a very human story about the failings of both the NHS and the PM.
Two days later, the public forgot about it, and the rest is history. Very rarely does a single 'scandal' dictate the future.
We will just have to wait and see. I agree with you about single scandals, unless they feed in to a narrative which is already there.
This is what phone hacking would have been like if every single voter in the country had had their phone damagingly hacked.
"Gove at 15.5 stands out - he’d definitely be a runner. Lay Sunak at 6.6 - he almost certainly won’t be. Lay favourite Starmer at 2.9 - if Boris goes then the next PM will be a Conservative."
Hmm. Almost tempted to shift some money into Betfair just to hedge my Sunak bet.
If Boris falls, then the next person with be from outside the Corona inner circle, in my view.
A clean break from this nightmare? rather.
There is no clean break from this nightmare no matter who runs the country
The damage covid 19 to the UK and everyone's economies is so grave and so absolute that it's effects will be felt for years
If Johnson cannot find a fridge to hide in before Wednesday, the Commons Liaison Committee gearing on Wednesday could be quite interesting. The PM's exchanges with Yvette Cooper may be worth a watch.
Instead of worrying about the PM going, perhaps the Cabinet should be welcoming such an eventuality.
Boris Johnson isn't up to the job. From a party political perspective, as well as a national one, the Conservatives are better off with someone else.
But not somebody else from the current cabinet, is the point.
There was a very interesting interview with Jeremy Hunt (Political Conversation I think) with Nick Robinson.
Hunt said he was looking to having a 3-4 year break from front line politics “to be a better Dad”.
That was a very interesting timeline. Bridges the likely next election date.
Sounds like a contender for the next Tory leader market, if we get a change of government at the general election.
Yes - although I got my dates wrong and 3-4 years is just before the next election.
May be reading too much into it, but does he think Boris will go?
I assumed he was saying he's keeping his head down on the back benches for now, but not ruling out a return to front-line politics in the future. He has three young children whom he keeps out of the public, and probably just wants to spend more time with them after a decade of full-time ministerial service.
I'm not sure he was making much of a comment on PM resigning soon, although I would be surprised if JH were a non-runner should a a vacancy occur before the next election.
No he was very explicit. He’d been too busy during his 9 years in Cabinet to be a good Dad and husband so wanted to spend the next 3-4 years doing that before playing a time in frontline politics again
This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -
Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -
Looks like it's over as far as Tory MPs are concerned. Very large number have still said nothing at all on the subject. It is hard to imagine all those who want to keep their seats now fighting a rear guard action from the bunker.
I doubt Cummings is going anywhere. He holds Tory MPs in nearly as much contempt as the rules that he designs for other people to follow. And Johnson woud be lost without him.
We are witnessing the stresses in the vote leave campaigns emerging
The ones calling for Cummings to go are in the main no dealers
I believe Cunmings should go and without delay. Not because of nuances of his story but the impression it has left with the public. He may or may not have broken the rules but the message to the public is being damaged
As far as I am concerned Brexit has happened and we will not be re-joining the EU. I was surprised but pleased that Starmer confirmed that we will not re-join and I expect staying in the single market will be the UK's eventual destination
Staying in the single market can only be a temporary solution because eventually we will see the absurdity of being outside the room while our destiny is decided.
Between 2016 and now the world has moved from a positions where borders were becoming more and more open to one where there is a trade war between the USA and China with the EU in the middle. The EU is large enough to try and avoid picking a side the UK isn't big enough to do so.
And the EU then may have no choice but to work against the UK as the next phase kicks off.
Given their supine response to China’s breach of a treaty the EU has clearly decided
As I said last night, the anger out in Middle England is off the scale.
Can't wait for some polling.
Is that anger at Cummings, or anger at lockdown though? I suspect its a big slice of the latter.
Anger at Tory double standards. And I voted Tory in 2019.
Steir Karmer: advice to agitated helmsman, or Steir Karmer: punishment imposed by fate after a lengthy interlude, according to various oriental belief systems, on transgressive bullocks.
"Gove at 15.5 stands out - he’d definitely be a runner. Lay Sunak at 6.6 - he almost certainly won’t be. Lay favourite Starmer at 2.9 - if Boris goes then the next PM will be a Conservative."
Hmm. Almost tempted to shift some money into Betfair just to hedge my Sunak bet.
If Boris falls, then the next person with be from outside the Corona inner circle, in my view.
A clean break from this nightmare? rather.
There is no clean break from this nightmare no matter who runs the country
The damage covid 19 to the UK and everyone's economies is so grave and so absolute that it's effects will be felt for years
It is consistent. Because that is the nub of the whole matter. Everyone has had to make some sacrifice or decision about family and friends. We are mighty pissed off that No 10 thinks what they do doesn't matter.
What a fool does Waugh not know that Baenard Castle was only an exclusion zone for everyone else not Cummings #1rule4them Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 43m The key point about Barnard Castle is that it was after the self isolation, but Cummings was allegedly taking a leisure trip 30 miles from his home. Against his govt's firm advice on travel for Easter Sunday (and every other time)
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
I have two clear memories of the 1978 FA cup. John Wile's bloodied and bandaged head (we was robbed) in the Semi, and an Arsenal fan's banner at Wembley which read something like 'Big Willie covers Featherlite Mariner' (or better still the complete opposite- it was along time ago!).
Happier days- we hadn't even had the winter of discontent at that point.
My mother’s family is from Felixstowe and were big fans. I was only four at the time but we were visiting my Grandparents so I was sat in front of the TV, wrapped in a blue and white scarf, given a blue and white teddy bear, and the rest is history.
My Dad is from York, and actually played in the Minstermen reserves, so it could have been worse...
The Tractor Boys and the Baggies shared quite a history in that era. Of course they shared Sir Bobby and I recall in the 1976/77 season, on the Baggies return to the top flight they lost by a whopping 7-0 at Portman Road, they somewhat recovered the deficit by a 4-0 win at the Hawthorns in the same season.
Happy days. I would like to say I was four in 1978 too, but that would be akin to one of today's Downing Street statements.
Sat in the bar yesterday having a half and the talk moved to Cummings and the UK nobody could believe what was happening and whilst the Spanish have made mistakes it just seemed unreal that they were making such a hash of it.
What has Grant Shapps done wrong in a previous life to deserve drawing this short straw like this?
Must've been something pretty bad. Like flogging a dodgy get-rich-quick scheme for $500 a time under the pseudonym "Michael Green". Something like that.
"Gove at 15.5 stands out - he’d definitely be a runner. Lay Sunak at 6.6 - he almost certainly won’t be. Lay favourite Starmer at 2.9 - if Boris goes then the next PM will be a Conservative."
Hmm. Almost tempted to shift some money into Betfair just to hedge my Sunak bet.
If Boris falls, then the next person with be from outside the Corona inner circle, in my view.
A clean break from this nightmare? rather.
There is no clean break from this nightmare no matter who runs the country
The damage covid 19 to the UK and everyone's economies is so grave and so absolute that it's effects will be felt for years
Personally I think the argument that we can be pants because everyone is pants is a bit complacent. Countries that can acknowledge the destructiveness of long lockdowns and junk them quickly may prosper.
"Gove at 15.5 stands out - he’d definitely be a runner. Lay Sunak at 6.6 - he almost certainly won’t be. Lay favourite Starmer at 2.9 - if Boris goes then the next PM will be a Conservative."
Hmm. Almost tempted to shift some money into Betfair just to hedge my Sunak bet.
If Boris falls, then the next person with be from outside the Corona inner circle, in my view.
A clean break from this nightmare? rather.
There is no clean break from this nightmare no matter who runs the country
The damage covid 19 to the UK and everyone's economies is so grave and so absolute that it's effects will be felt for years
Shame the worst of it was avoidable.
It is not evident that outside of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand that the worst of it was avoidable.
It is very complex and with so many factors the debates and enquiries will go on for decades
How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?
at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
I think that is wishful thinking.
The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health
And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
As I said last night, the anger out in Middle England is off the scale.
Can't wait for some polling.
Is that anger at Cummings, or anger at lockdown though? I suspect its a big slice of the latter.
Actually lockdown is very popular and it is not hard to see why.
Coming out of lockdown is where all the dangers are.
Lockdown is popular because of Sunak's furlough. In countries where the true unemployment hit is not being hidden from the population by vast borrowing, maybe not so much.
If Johnson cannot find a fridge to hide in before Wednesday, the Commons Liaison Committee gearing on Wednesday could be quite interesting. The PM's exchanges with Yvette Cooper may be worth a watch.
He has a flight booked to see Trump in America 10 mins before the scheduled appearance. (or to Durham to see his boss)
This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -
Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -
What has Grant Shapps done wrong in a previous life to deserve drawing this short straw like this?
Must've been something pretty bad. Like flogging a dodgy get-rich-quick scheme for $500 a time under the pseudonym "Michael Green". Something like that.
Not a previous life but instead what he did three months ago.
His opposition to restrictions on entry from abroad cost thousands of lives.
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
I have two clear memories of the 1978 FA cup. John Wile's bloodied and bandaged head (we was robbed) in the Semi, and an Arsenal fan's banner at Wembley which read something like 'Big Willie covers Featherlite Mariner' (or better still the complete opposite- it was along time ago!).
Happier days- we hadn't even had the winter of discontent at that point.
My mother’s family is from Felixstowe and were big fans. I was only four at the time but we were visiting my Grandparents so I was sat in front of the TV, wrapped in a blue and white scarf, given a blue and white teddy bear, and the rest is history.
My Dad is from York, and actually played in the Minstermen reserves, so it could have been worse...
The Tractor Boys and the Baggies shared quite a history in that era. Of course they shared Sir Bobby and I recall in the 1976/77 season, on the Baggies return to the top flight they lost by a whopping 7-0 at Portman Road, they somewhat recovered the deficit by a 4-0 win at the Hawthorns in the same season.
Happy days. I would like to say I was four in 1978 too, but that would be akin to one of today's Downing Street statements.
“Tractor Boys” is a more recent nickname. One of our first games back in the top flight in 2000 against Villa and the oppo started taunting us with the term, before we scored and chanted back “One Nil to the Tractor Boys!” and it stuck. Never liked it myself though!
Of course if Johnson sacks Cummings now he just reinforces the idea he follows, rather than leads.
"Weak, weak, weak"
Indeed, this is what I was saying last night. OGH thinks it makes Boris look week if DC stays, I think it makes him look week if, after all this, he bows to pressure.
At the end of the day, Boris has an 80 seat majority and the fish and chips this news will be wrapped around tomorrow will be four years old by the time of the next election.
Yep - time to show strength. If Boris and Cummings manage to sail through the worst the press and Opposition can throw at them now, they will be utterly invincible.
Elated anti-Tories should also remember how they felt the day of Lady Hale's verdict concerning the prorogation, when many thought that Cummings and Boris were finished, and that both Brexit and the Conservative Government - which at that time had no majority whatsoever - were doomed.
Spoiler alert: they weren't.
Seriously reprising your back catalogue now. Got anything a bit newer?
Facts don't change just because people get bored of them. This is one of the best politics forums on the internet, but its Achiles' heel is an addiction to short-termism and ephemeral headlines and scandals - the un-prorogation is a locus classicus for that failing.
'This too shall pass' should be the default response to _any_ headline, good or bad, until proven otherwise.
There was a cartoon in PE in about 1995 of a couple of German soldiers standing in the ruins of Berlin, one of them saying "Nothing to worry about - just a typical mid-term result."
Huge political stories can be about trivial matters like taking speeding points or claiming a couple of grand for the moat. This is not about trivia, it feeds directly in to the biggest news story since Cuban missiles; and it's not about backbenchers and Libdems, it's about the tory government. You may be right that it's a 9 days wonder, but that's not the way the clever money is betting.
Hogg never claimed for the moat.
That was a juicy story spun up by the Telegraph.
The salaries of the live in housekeeper/gardener couple exceeded the expenses limit.
He just accidentally mentioned it when claiming expenses?
It comes from a rather silly letter that he wrote asking if the expenses authority could just set up a monthly standing order as his expenses were clearly well in excess of the limit and he didn’t want to have the hassle of submitting claiming in arrears. It was one of a list of 10-12 examples of costs included in that letter.
@BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?
I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.
Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?
I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
I have two clear memories of the 1978 FA cup. John Wile's bloodied and bandaged head (we was robbed) in the Semi, and an Arsenal fan's banner at Wembley which read something like 'Big Willie covers Featherlite Mariner' (or better still the complete opposite- it was along time ago!).
Happier days- we hadn't even had the winter of discontent at that point.
My mother’s family is from Felixstowe and were big fans. I was only four at the time but we were visiting my Grandparents so I was sat in front of the TV, wrapped in a blue and white scarf, given a blue and white teddy bear, and the rest is history.
My Dad is from York, and actually played in the Minstermen reserves, so it could have been worse...
The Tractor Boys and the Baggies shared quite a history in that era. Of course they shared Sir Bobby and I recall in the 1976/77 season, on the Baggies return to the top flight they lost by a whopping 7-0 at Portman Road, they somewhat recovered the deficit by a 4-0 win at the Hawthorns in the same season.
Happy days. I would like to say I was four in 1978 too, but that would be akin to one of today's Downing Street statements.
“Tractor Boys” is a more recent nickname. One of our first games back in the top flight in 2000 against Villa and the oppo started taunting us with the term, before we scored and chanted back “One Nil to the Tractor Boys!” and it stuck. Never liked it myself though!
Summary (but best to read it yourself): outdoors risk is low, even if you pass panting joggers etc., shared building risk is high if you share the same breathing cycle anywhere (even visiting the bathroom after an infected person or on a different floor), risk of being a carrier much the same from age 21 onwards, and non-trivial at all ages.
This suggests to me that the future of continental style outside cafes is not bad, but indoor eating is a bad idea for the forseeable future. Hotel rooms also look dodgy. I suspect that people will overwhelmingly choose to visit friends to stay/eat rather than staying/eating out.
That's a really good article, and neatly summarises the problems we are all going to need to face while this virus is around.
One hotelier in my part of the world was interviewed on the radio the other day, he said that they are leaving rooms empty for 72 hours after cleaning, before admitting new guests, as well as restaurants only at 30% capacity and with no buffet food service.
These sort of restrictions will make it very difficult for a lot of hospitality businesses to survive, and it's clear that the cost of hotels and restaurants is going to rise substantially in the short term.
What is now quite clear, that was not clear before, is that it is only the elderly and vulnerable who are at risk of death.
I don't want to get into a long argument, but this is factually untrue and you are potentially putting people in danger by circulating it. Lower risk, yes. No risk, no.
If your argument is that the lower risk should be accepted as a necessary price for the benefits of normal living, that's different - I don't really agree, but it's a viable viewpoint. But you shouldn't overstate the case.
Comments
Huge political stories can be about trivial matters like taking speeding points or claiming a couple of grand for the moat. This is not about trivia, it feeds directly in to the biggest news story since Cuban missiles; and it's not about backbenchers and Libdems, it's about the tory government. You may be right that it's a 9 days wonder, but that's not the way the clever money is betting.
"Gove at 15.5 stands out - he’d definitely be a runner.
Lay Sunak at 6.6 - he almost certainly won’t be.
Lay favourite Starmer at 2.9 - if Boris goes then the next PM will be a Conservative."
Hmm. Almost tempted to shift some money into Betfair just to hedge my Sunak bet.
He has no option but to go. its not if its when.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made
I somehow doubt this chap can afford a solicitor - and don’t get me started on Legal Aid.
Six
https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1264487598552121344?s=20
The ones calling for Cummings to go are in the main no dealers
I believe Cunmings should go and without delay. Not because of nuances of his story but the impression it has left with the public. He may or may not have broken the rules but the message to the public is being damaged
As far as I am concerned Brexit has happened and we will not be re-joining the EU. I was surprised but pleased that Starmer confirmed that we will not re-join and I expect staying in the single market will be the UK's eventual destination
Even in the days of the all-powerful Alistair Campbell, I'm confident that Blair controlled Cabinet appointments himself.
Boris is trapped. He can't keep Cummings, but neither can he let him go. He needs him to do the hard yards.
What a dilemma.
I'm not sure he was making much of a comment on PM resigning soon, although I would be surprised if JH were a non-runner should a a vacancy occur before the next election.
Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
A clean break from this nightmare? rather.
This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
-----------------------------------
Don't you ever be sad
Lean on me, when the rules are bad
When the day comes and you're locked down
With public opinion about to frown
Just hold on, I'm Cummings
Hold on, Dom Cummings
I'm on my way, to Durham
If you get the virus, I won't give a damn!
Don't worry about the rules, 'cause I'm here
No need for contrition, 'cause I'm here
Just hold on, I'm Cummings
Hold on, Dom Cummings
Hold on, I'm Cummings
Hold on, Dom Cummings
Reach out to me for special advice, yeah
Call my name, yeah, and pay the price
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah!
Mr. Contrarian, vielleicht. There's a long way to go with the pandemic and the political impact thereof, so any 'newcomer' will still end up affected by the Government's handling of it (even if that dates from their premiership only).
As I said last night, the anger out in Middle England is off the scale.
Can't wait for some polling.
Why is there even a trial if it is that clear?
And the EU then may have no choice but to work against the UK as the next phase kicks off.
Especially when the person responsible for the lockdown is the person to ignore the rules.
That was a juicy story spun up by the Telegraph.
The salaries of the live in housekeeper/gardener couple exceeded the expenses limit.
Are we adding Steve Baker and Peter Bone to the list of "lefties and remainers" now ?
Remember the boy on the floor, and Boris taking the reporter's phone? That swayed public opinion so strongly that the MRP had the Tory majority drop to 28.
That was just a few days before the general election, when public attention was at its height, and it was a very human story about the failings of both the NHS and the PM.
Two days later, the public forgot about it, and the rest is history. Very rarely does a single 'scandal' dictate the future.
My Dad is from York, and actually played in the Minstermen reserves, so it could have been worse...
Meanwhile Boris's rough-sleeper chum Cummings can thumb his nose and tell us that rules don't apply to him, and Boris acquiesces. People won't tolerate this, superimposed on all the previous lies and incompetence, and Boris's invisibility.
In many ways I hope that Boris keeps supporting his rough-sleeper chum, because doing so will be the beginning of the end for Boris.
On last night's thread we discussed how the under 45s are more likely to be struck by lightning than die of this. Someone also pointed out that twice as many people die from falling down stairs in any given year as the number of under 45s who have died of this.
The point that some of us have been making for a while is that the whole country has now been unnecessarily scared into a lockdown that is damaging everything from our economy to our health to our childrens' education.
When in fact what we need to be doing is shielding the elderly and vulnerable and getting everyone else back to some kind of normality.
However it is not politically expedient to do so, hence the Hotel California lockdown we now find ourselves in, where half the country is heading to the beach to enjoy the bank holiday weekend but businesses across the country remain shut.
Setting aside the possibility that they are all idiots I assume there is more to the story than we know
Your facts seem to ignore the "fact" that a lockdown was implemented. Far from proving the "facts wrong" the results seem to corroborate that the lockdown spared the UK from a Spain or Italy worst case scenario, but it was close!
The suggestion that "the science changed" has always been risible. It was the focus groups that changed when they saw the grim reaper heading their way. That is why Cummings did the reverse ferret on herd immunity.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/coronavirus-covid19-exposure-risk-catching-virus-germs/
Summary (but best to read it yourself): outdoors risk is low, even if you pass panting joggers etc., shared building risk is high if you share the same breathing cycle anywhere (even visiting the bathroom after an infected person or on a different floor), risk of being a carrier much the same from age 21 onwards, and non-trivial at all ages.
This suggests to me that the future of continental style outside cafes is not bad, but indoor eating is a bad idea for the forseeable future. Hotel rooms also look dodgy. I suspect that people will overwhelmingly choose to visit friends to stay/eat rather than staying/eating out.
https://twitter.com/CPJElmore/status/1264472555395723264
This is what phone hacking would have been like if every single voter in the country had had their phone damagingly hacked.
The damage covid 19 to the UK and everyone's economies is so grave and so absolute that it's effects will be felt for years
https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261265439520370688
Imagine how quickly JC would have ballsed this up.
Steir Karmer: punishment imposed by fate after a lengthy interlude, according to various oriental belief systems, on transgressive bullocks.
Coming out of lockdown is where all the dangers are.
Paul Waugh
@paulwaugh
· 43m
The key point about Barnard Castle is that it was after the self isolation, but Cummings was allegedly taking a leisure trip 30 miles from his home.
Against his govt's firm advice on travel for Easter Sunday (and every other time)
Happy days. I would like to say I was four in 1978 too, but that would be akin to one of today's Downing Street statements.
Must've been something pretty bad. Like flogging a dodgy get-rich-quick scheme for $500 a time under the pseudonym "Michael Green". Something like that.
But we shall see.
It is very complex and with so many factors the debates and enquiries will go on for decades
What we still have is a partial shutdown.
(or to Durham to see his boss)
#1rule4them
His opposition to restrictions on entry from abroad cost thousands of lives.
@DailyMailUK
· 1h
Boris Johnson is set to ease restrictions for outdoor activities
One hotelier in my part of the world was interviewed on the radio the other day, he said that they are leaving rooms empty for 72 hours after cleaning, before admitting new guests, as well as restaurants only at 30% capacity and with no buffet food service.
These sort of restrictions will make it very difficult for a lot of hospitality businesses to survive, and it's clear that the cost of hotels and restaurants is going to rise substantially in the short term.
If your argument is that the lower risk should be accepted as a necessary price for the benefits of normal living, that's different - I don't really agree, but it's a viable viewpoint. But you shouldn't overstate the case.