Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In other news Starmer moves to a net 24% lead over Johnson in

12357

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited May 2020
    Boris and Starmer are closely matched in approval overall though, 45% for Boris and 47% for Starmer and more Tory voters, 33% still disapprove of Starmer than the 26% who approve.

    The Tories also still have a clear poll lead on 47%. While Starmer has increased the Labour voteshare from 32% at the last general election to 35% there are clearly a lot of Tory voters who will still not vote Labour even if they are less afraid of Starmer than Corbyn (though I suppose they might vote LD if they are Remainers and we go to WTO terms Brexit)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1264296723310141440?s=20
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -


    Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
    A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
    Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
    Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

    I somehow doubt this chap can afford a solicitor - and don’t get me started on Legal Aid.
    How can the CPS prosecute when there is a clear defence? Why didn’t the judge throw it out?

    Setting aside the possibility that they are all idiots I assume there is more to the story than we know
    No - they are idiots

    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261265439520370688
    The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    Pulpstar said:

    @squareroot2
    Are we adding Steve Baker and Peter Bone to the list of "lefties and remainers" now ?

    I meant posters on here and you know that v well.
    The trouble is Squareroot2 there is a small group on here (who will defend the Govt under any circumstances) who respond to any discussion by an accusation of the challenge coming from a 'leftie'. It has happened to me numerous times here, and just the other day in fact. I am someone who is 65, voted in every election possible and I have never voted Labour. If I am a 'leftie' I'm a pretty useless one.

    It is a bit of a cult mentality by some.

    Just because I argue with a Tory about something or support a Labour poster on something, does not make me a leftie. It makes me normal.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    nichomar said:

    Sat in the bar yesterday having a half and the talk moved to Cummings and the UK nobody could believe what was happening and whilst the Spanish have made mistakes it just seemed unreal that they were making such a hash of it.

    Also, whatever you think of him Pedro Sanchez has been highly visible throughout the crisis. Johnson, on the other hand, has basically hidden away for the last few weeks.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Looks like it's over as far as Tory MPs are concerned. Very large number have still said nothing at all on the subject. It is hard to imagine all those who want to keep their seats now fighting a rear guard action from the bunker.

    I doubt Cummings is going anywhere. He holds Tory MPs in nearly as much contempt as the rules that he designs for other people to follow. And Johnson woud be lost without him.

    Since Ridge and Marr the betting has swung back to Cummings staying.

    From what Shapps said, the government is behind Dom but Shapps left wriggle room or if you prefer, a couple of hostages to fortune: the date at which DC first travelled north (as if this is shifted earlier then DC would have been out of self-isolation before Castle Barnard) and the firm denial of the second trip north.

    It was significant that Shapps seemed to have been deliberately left in the dark on some points, for plausible deniability. In other words, Cummings can be hung out to dry if new evidence emerges, without dragging down the whole government with him. Along the same lines, the denials depend on Cummings' word with no attempt to corroborate them from, for instance, ANPR or phone metadata.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    If Johnson cannot find a fridge to hide in before Wednesday, the Commons Liaison Committee gearing on Wednesday could be quite interesting. The PM's exchanges with Yvette Cooper may be worth a watch.

    He has a flight booked to see Trump in America 10 mins before the scheduled appearance.
    (or to Durham to see his boss)

    #1rule4them
    The meeting you refer to is the G7 scheduled for June.

    Surely you are not suggesting the UK PM should not go
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Sandpit, sorry, missed your comment before:

    "Gove at 15.5 stands out - he’d definitely be a runner.
    Lay Sunak at 6.6 - he almost certainly won’t be.
    Lay favourite Starmer at 2.9 - if Boris goes then the next PM will be a Conservative."

    Hmm. Almost tempted to shift some money into Betfair just to hedge my Sunak bet.

    If Boris falls, then the next person with be from outside the Corona inner circle, in my view.

    A clean break from this nightmare? rather.
    There is no clean break from this nightmare no matter who runs the country

    The damage covid 19 to the UK and everyone's economies is so grave and so absolute that it's effects will be felt for years
    Shame the worst of it was avoidable.
    It is not evident that outside of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand that the worst of it was avoidable.

    It is very complex and with so many factors the debates and enquiries will go on for decades
    There is a ton of evidence that the worst was avoidable. The tragic thing is the government is still making basic errors. The gap between rhetoric and reality has been vast. Viruses (and apparently government advisors) don’t respect sound bites. Where is Boris anyway?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    In which Johnson's government is thrown into the cracks of Mount Dom.

    Cummings is Dollum to Boris's Frodo.
    But there’s no Sam. None of them are in any way wise.
    Sunak?
    He proved yesterday he is just a lickspittle yes man.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited May 2020
    I mentally always stick "knows the" and "of fuck all" around a certain poster's name here. Does anyone else do that ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    "My inbox is rammed with very angry constituents"

    As I said last night, the anger out in Middle England is off the scale.

    Can't wait for some polling.
    Is that anger at Cummings, or anger at lockdown though? I suspect its a big slice of the latter.
    Actually lockdown is very popular and it is not hard to see why.

    Coming out of lockdown is where all the dangers are.
    Paying everyone close to their full salary not to work is always going to be popular.

    Withdrawing that support, with a couple of million becoming unemployed in the process, is going to be a whole lot of trouble no matter who is in charge. Ditto with the eventual spending cuts needed to pay for all the extra borrowing.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I'm going to buck the trend. I think if Cummings goes it will be the making of Boris, in much the same way that leaving the ERM, although painful, paved the way for Britain to thrive economically.

    Boris would be his own man without Cummings. Dom's radical anarchism isn't Boris. He can breathe the oxygen of his natural libertarian centre ground politics.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Sandpit, sorry, missed your comment before:

    "Gove at 15.5 stands out - he’d definitely be a runner.
    Lay Sunak at 6.6 - he almost certainly won’t be.
    Lay favourite Starmer at 2.9 - if Boris goes then the next PM will be a Conservative."

    Hmm. Almost tempted to shift some money into Betfair just to hedge my Sunak bet.

    If Boris falls, then the next person with be from outside the Corona inner circle, in my view.

    A clean break from this nightmare? rather.
    There is no clean break from this nightmare no matter who runs the country

    The damage covid 19 to the UK and everyone's economies is so grave and so absolute that it's effects will be felt for years
    Shame the worst of it was avoidable.
    It is not evident that outside of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand that the worst of it was avoidable.

    It is very complex and with so many factors the debates and enquiries will go on for decades
    There is a ton of evidence that the worst was avoidable. The tragic thing is the government is still making basic errors. The gap between rhetoric and reality has been vast. Viruses (and apparently government advisors) don’t respect sound bites. Where is Boris anyway?
    I agree with you on Boris and he needs to step up or go on paternity leave.

    I do not think he has fully recovered from covid
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Pulpstar said:

    I mentally always stick "knows the" and "of fuck all" around a certain poster's name here. Does anyone else do that ?

    They might do but it might be about different posters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Doing the rounds on Facebook

    FREE Need to visit friends or family? Just Cut Out & Use this "Freedom of Movement" (are you sure? - ed.) Facemask and you're free to go anywhere!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Interesting that Steve Baker becomes the first Tory big beast to say Cummings should resign

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8352057/Now-Tory-MPs-demand-head-Dominic-Cummings-Brexiteer-Steve-Baker-leads-backbench-anger.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -


    Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
    A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
    Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
    Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

    I somehow doubt this chap can afford a solicitor - and don’t get me started on Legal Aid.
    How can the CPS prosecute when there is a clear defence? Why didn’t the judge throw it out?

    Setting aside the possibility that they are all idiots I assume there is more to the story than we know
    No - they are idiots

    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261265439520370688
    The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261272763437899776?s=19
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    @BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?

    I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.

    Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
    Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?

    I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
    I have two clear memories of the 1978 FA cup. John Wile's bloodied and bandaged head (we was robbed) in the Semi, and an Arsenal fan's banner at Wembley which read something like 'Big Willie covers Featherlite Mariner' (or better still the complete opposite- it was along time ago!).

    Happier days- we hadn't even had the winter of discontent at that point.
    My mother’s family is from Felixstowe and were big fans. I was only four at the time but we were visiting my Grandparents so I was sat in front of the TV, wrapped in a blue and white scarf, given a blue and white teddy bear, and the rest is history.

    My Dad is from York, and actually played in the Minstermen reserves, so it could have been worse...
    The Tractor Boys and the Baggies shared quite a history in that era. Of course they shared Sir Bobby and I recall in the 1976/77 season, on the Baggies return to the top flight they lost by a whopping 7-0 at Portman Road, they somewhat recovered the deficit by a 4-0 win at the Hawthorns in the same season.

    Happy days. I would like to say I was four in 1978 too, but that would be akin to one of today's Downing Street statements.
    “Tractor Boys” is a more recent nickname. One of our first games back in the top flight in 2000 against Villa and the oppo started taunting us with the term, before we scored and chanted back “One Nil to the Tractor Boys!” and it stuck. Never liked it myself though!
    Off topic

    Those naughty Villa fans. One of the many tales sourcing the 'Baggies' nickname is a reference to the Villa supporters observing the baggie trousers worn by the foundrymen watching the Albion. Anyway 'boing, boing'!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    They already were doing that.

    What Cummings allows is for people to be open about it.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    HYUFD said:
    Not at all surprising to anyone who's read Tim Shipman's 'All Out War', surely?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited May 2020
    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -


    Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
    A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
    Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
    Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

    I somehow doubt this chap can afford a solicitor - and don’t get me started on Legal Aid.
    How can the CPS prosecute when there is a clear defence? Why didn’t the judge throw it out?

    Setting aside the possibility that they are all idiots I assume there is more to the story than we know
    No - they are idiots

    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261265439520370688
    The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
    Of course the Director of Public Prosecutions at the CPS until 2013 was one Sir Keir Starmer. Wonder what happened to him?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -


    Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
    A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
    Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
    Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

    I somehow doubt this chap can afford a solicitor - and don’t get me started on Legal Aid.
    How can the CPS prosecute when there is a clear defence? Why didn’t the judge throw it out?

    Setting aside the possibility that they are all idiots I assume there is more to the story than we know
    No - they are idiots

    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261265439520370688
    The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
    That and underfunding. Current rates for a first year trainee solicitor with the CPS are about £18.5k pa - just under the average graduate pay. The Law Society recommends a £22k minimum in London and a £19k minimum outside. Given you have a year or two of law school debts to pay on top of University loans they are not able to attract the brightest and best, or even above average, to prosecute cases and it’s that prep, rather than any flashy displays by the Bar in court, where cases are won and lost. Also means that they’ll prosecute any old shite.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Cummings future depends on just how many conservative mps demand he goes

    And it does seem to be growing
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Pulpstar said:

    I mentally always stick "knows the" and "of fuck all" around a certain poster's name here. Does anyone else do that ?

    Knows the Doug Seal of fuck all?!!?!!!! How very dare you!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    So, who was walking in the blue bell woods?

    He has a doppleganger?

    I suppose it is possible that anyone wearing sunglasses, a beanie hat and grey teeshirt could have been mistaken for Cummings.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Cyclefree said:

    Shapps claiming he doesn't know the dates and details of Cummings.

    Unbelievable.



    Not that unbelievable. Mrs Cummings seems to have been very confused about where they were during their illness despite writing a whole article about it and doing a Radio 4 interview.

    If she and her husband had no idea it’s a bit much to expect poor Mr Shapps to know.
    Perhaps the Police and neighbours can fill in the details. And motorways and major roads in the UK have ANPR cameras recording car movements.

    The evidence is out there, it just needs collecting together. It would be interesting if Starmer asked for the ANPR records for Mr & Mrs Cummings' vehicles...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -


    Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
    A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
    Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
    Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

    I somehow doubt this chap can afford a solicitor - and don’t get me started on Legal Aid.
    How can the CPS prosecute when there is a clear defence? Why didn’t the judge throw it out?

    Setting aside the possibility that they are all idiots I assume there is more to the story than we know
    No - they are idiots

    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261265439520370688
    The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
    Of course the chief executive of the CPS until 2015 was one Sir Keir Starmer. Wonder what happened to him?
    Well done for noticing that thinly veiled dig.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -


    Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
    A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
    Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
    Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

    I somehow doubt this chap can afford a solicitor - and don’t get me started on Legal Aid.
    How can the CPS prosecute when there is a clear defence? Why didn’t the judge throw it out?

    Setting aside the possibility that they are all idiots I assume there is more to the story than we know
    No - they are idiots

    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261265439520370688
    The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261272763437899776?s=19
    Mixing up Welsh and English regs does not speak to their competence. Although it does raise a separate issue as to whether the pretence that England and Wales form a single legal jurisdiction can be maintained.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    On the one hand, my humanities degree at Cambridge was academically rigorous, astonishingly difficult, and not politically correct in any way.

    On the other, it didn't qualify me for anything, even a barista.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    Sandpit said:


    the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.

    Yes, triviality indeed. It's a Westminster bubble story, something that too many on PB seem to be trapped inside. Basically it's all about what to do in response to someone having made probably the wrong decision while seeking to resolve a dilemma about how to do the best for their family while under great personal pressure and in less than full health themselves.

    So the story is giving Johnson some breathing space. I don't think that the government will be rushing to shut it down, as they then might be at risk of creating more room for the sort of real stories that have crucified their claims to competance over the past few weeks. The sort that have the potential to shift voting intention.

    What did revolt me yesterday was Ian Blackford's claim that Cummings actions represented far worse behaviour than that of the Scottish public health chief who Sturgeon defended initially. In the Scottish case it was all about a couple of utterly unavoidable leisure trips for personal gratification, an absolutely blatant breach under no pressure and with no difficult difficult dilemma to resolve. So utter hypocrisy from the SNP's Westminster leader there.
    Away you halfwit , she broke the rules but drove a short distance and was not spreading virus. This clown drove 250 miles spewing infection all the way, you bigoted southerners have no clue what principles and morals are.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2020

    nichomar said:

    Sat in the bar yesterday having a half and the talk moved to Cummings and the UK nobody could believe what was happening and whilst the Spanish have made mistakes it just seemed unreal that they were making such a hash of it.

    Also, whatever you think of him Pedro Sanchez has been highly visible throughout the crisis. Johnson, on the other hand, has basically hidden away for the last few weeks.

    https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1264497103054745602?s=20
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    Cyclefree said:

    Shapps claiming he doesn't know the dates and details of Cummings.

    Unbelievable.



    Not that unbelievable. Mrs Cummings seems to have been very confused about where they were during their illness despite writing a whole article about it and doing a Radio 4 interview.

    If she and her husband had no idea it’s a bit much to expect poor Mr Shapps to know.
    Perhaps the Police and neighbours can fill in the details. And motorways and major roads in the UK have ANPR cameras recording car movements.

    The evidence is out there, it just needs collecting together. It would be interesting if Starmer asked for the ANPR records for Mr & Mrs Cummings' vehicles...
    It would be interesting if Cummings did not ask for them. Question for this afternoon's presser: has DC asked the secret squirrels to release his mobile phone metadata and ANPR that would prove he stayed in London?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kyf_100 said:



    What is now quite clear, that was not clear before, is that it is only the elderly and vulnerable who are at risk of death.

    I don't want to get into a long argument, but this is factually untrue and you are potentially putting people in danger by circulating it. Lower risk, yes. No risk, no.

    If your argument is that the lower risk should be accepted as a necessary price for the benefits of normal living, that's different - I don't really agree, but it's a viable viewpoint. But you shouldn't overstate the case.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinapril2020#characteristics-of-those-dying-from-covid-19

    Look at that graph and tell me if you think locking down people of working age is worth the wholesale destruction of our economy when the risk to them is so minimal and the obvious policy is to shield the elderly and vulnerable.

    Anyway. Forgive me if I don't feel like bowing down before the all powerful cult of lockdown today. My employer made 25% of all employees redundant recently and I have friends who are probably going to have their houses repossessed before the year's out. No idea if I'll be in a job by the end of summer, either.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    The biggest news today should be this:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1264459136441430016?s=21

    This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.

    The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620

    I'm going to buck the trend. I think if Cummings goes it will be the making of Boris, in much the same way that leaving the ERM, although painful, paved the way for Britain to thrive economically.

    Boris would be his own man without Cummings. Dom's radical anarchism isn't Boris. He can breathe the oxygen of his natural libertarian centre ground politics.

    That might be correct politically.

    But I think the shite performance of the alphabet soup has shown we need some radicalism in the organisation of government.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    Huge political stories can be about trivial matters like taking speeding points or claiming a couple of grand for the moat. This is not about trivia, it feeds directly in to the biggest news story since Cuban missiles; and it's not about backbenchers and Libdems, it's about the tory government. You may be right that it's a 9 days wonder, but that's not the way the clever money is betting.

    Even if this does not result in Cummings's departure, it hangs around as tarnish on this Govt's reputation as well as the Cabinet's reputation. The next scandal will add more tarnish and when the reckoning does come all these "unresolved" scandals will make it worse.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    Marr vs Shapps is as painful to watch as Swain vs Paxman

    Pretty desperate if Marr is able to maul you.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    edited May 2020
    But its even worse than that.

    The equivalent from the likes of London Metropolitan University also cost tens of thousands of pounds.

    The university bubble will now burst.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Looking at that castle it's pretty obvious that some kind of ritual needed to be performed, probably using the child or its fresh blood. I'd reserve judgement until we hear the full story.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Cyclefree said:

    Shapps claiming he doesn't know the dates and details of Cummings.

    Unbelievable.



    Not that unbelievable. Mrs Cummings seems to have been very confused about where they were during their illness despite writing a whole article about it and doing a Radio 4 interview.

    If she and her husband had no idea it’s a bit much to expect poor Mr Shapps to know.
    If you believe Mrs Cummings was really confused about where she'd been you must be very gullible indeed.

    This is scarcasm, presumably?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:



    What is now quite clear, that was not clear before, is that it is only the elderly and vulnerable who are at risk of death.

    I don't want to get into a long argument, but this is factually untrue and you are potentially putting people in danger by circulating it. Lower risk, yes. No risk, no.

    If your argument is that the lower risk should be accepted as a necessary price for the benefits of normal living, that's different - I don't really agree, but it's a viable viewpoint. But you shouldn't overstate the case.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinapril2020#characteristics-of-those-dying-from-covid-19

    Look at that graph and tell me if you think locking down people of working age is worth the wholesale destruction of our economy when the risk to them is so minimal and the obvious policy is to shield the elderly and vulnerable.

    Anyway. Forgive me if I don't feel like bowing down before the all powerful cult of lockdown today. My employer made 25% of all employees redundant recently and I have friends who are probably going to have their houses repossessed before the year's out. No idea if I'll be in a job by the end of summer, either.
    It's a nonsense to suggest the lockin is singularly responsible for the economic hit....

    Sweden is going to be battered too
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    @BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?

    I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.

    Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
    Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?

    I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
    I have two clear memories of the 1978 FA cup. John Wile's bloodied and bandaged head (we was robbed) in the Semi, and an Arsenal fan's banner at Wembley which read something like 'Big Willie covers Featherlite Mariner' (or better still the complete opposite- it was along time ago!).

    Happier days- we hadn't even had the winter of discontent at that point.
    My mother’s family is from Felixstowe and were big fans. I was only four at the time but we were visiting my Grandparents so I was sat in front of the TV, wrapped in a blue and white scarf, given a blue and white teddy bear, and the rest is history.

    My Dad is from York, and actually played in the Minstermen reserves, so it could have been worse...
    The Tractor Boys and the Baggies shared quite a history in that era. Of course they shared Sir Bobby and I recall in the 1976/77 season, on the Baggies return to the top flight they lost by a whopping 7-0 at Portman Road, they somewhat recovered the deficit by a 4-0 win at the Hawthorns in the same season.

    Happy days. I would like to say I was four in 1978 too, but that would be akin to one of today's Downing Street statements.
    “Tractor Boys” is a more recent nickname. One of our first games back in the top flight in 2000 against Villa and the oppo started taunting us with the term, before we scored and chanted back “One Nil to the Tractor Boys!” and it stuck. Never liked it myself though!
    Everyone knows they're the binmen.
    Certainly to individuals in certain neighbouring counties who can (indeed must) count to 12 using their fingers, yes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:
    Not at all surprising to anyone who's read Tim Shipman's 'All Out War', surely?
    True, David Davis backers like Steve Baker despise Cummings as do IDS backers as do Cameron and Osborne and May backers and the feeling is mutual from Cummings.

    The only true Cummings loyalists are a few Vote Leave bigwigs like Gove
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
    The shocking thing about Cummings is that his actions exposed other to a lethal risk, probably his parents....I don't believe the crap that he went to see his sister only
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Cyclefree said:

    The biggest news today should be this:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1264459136441430016?s=21

    This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.

    The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
    Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Oh, still rocking that famous Lady Hale spider, eh? Given how that scandal went absolutely nowhere, a little self-awareness might be a good thing now.

    And the less said about the 'People's Vote' the better!

    Matthew Arnold called Oxford the 'home of lost causes', but it seems he was mistaken - it's actually that Twitter account :wink:
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    I noticed "coach" never responded to my wager that there would be a crossover in Tory/Lab polling by the year end.....



  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Scott_xP said:
    Not just any bureaucrat:

    An elite bureaucrat, with a castle amongst the many family homes and strong links to russian oligarchs.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:


    the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.

    Yes, triviality indeed. It's a Westminster bubble story, something that too many on PB seem to be trapped inside. Basically it's all about what to do in response to someone having made probably the wrong decision while seeking to resolve a dilemma about how to do the best for their family while under great personal pressure and in less than full health themselves.

    So the story is giving Johnson some breathing space. I don't think that the government will be rushing to shut it down, as they then might be at risk of creating more room for the sort of real stories that have crucified their claims to competance over the past few weeks. The sort that have the potential to shift voting intention.

    What did revolt me yesterday was Ian Blackford's claim that Cummings actions represented far worse behaviour than that of the Scottish public health chief who Sturgeon defended initially. In the Scottish case it was all about a couple of utterly unavoidable leisure trips for personal gratification, an absolutely blatant breach under no pressure and with no difficult difficult dilemma to resolve. So utter hypocrisy from the SNP's Westminster leader there.
    Away you halfwit , she broke the rules but drove a short distance and was not spreading virus. This clown drove 250 miles spewing infection all the way, you bigoted southerners have no clue what principles and morals are.
    That hits the nail on the head , " This clown drove 250 miles spewing infection all the way."
    Anyone defending that is a deluded idiot.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    HYUFD said:

    Boris and Starmer are closely matched in approval overall though, 45% for Boris and 47% for Starmer and more Tory voters, 33% still disapprove of Starmer than the 26% who approve.

    The Tories also still have a clear poll lead on 47%. While Starmer has increased the Labour voteshare from 32% at the last general election to 35% there are clearly a lot of Tory voters who will still not vote Labour even if they are less afraid of Starmer than Corbyn (though I suppose they might vote LD if they are Remainers and we go to WTO terms Brexit)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1264296723310141440?s=20

    I think that's a fair analysis of the position as it stood last week. I doubt if any of us can say with confidence where it will be in 6 months, let alone in 3 years.

    I'm genuinely sorry for Boris's dilemma at a personal level. He is probably feeling very under par in an objectively very difficult situation, with his closest aide under extreme pressure. He's always wanted to be PM so won't give it up readily. His absence from the airwaves is increasingly marked, but when he goes on and gives a substandard performance his rating goes down. He is probably thinking "Thank God for the recess" and just hoping he gets better and the pressure eases.

    But it does give the impression of drift. Supposedly we are having a big step towards lockdown easing in a week. The news should be full of the Government's preparations for it. Instead, they are preoccupied with defending Cummings.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -


    Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
    A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
    Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
    Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

    I somehow doubt this chap can afford a solicitor - and don’t get me started on Legal Aid.
    How can the CPS prosecute when there is a clear defence? Why didn’t the judge throw it out?

    Setting aside the possibility that they are all idiots I assume there is more to the story than we know
    No - they are idiots

    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261265439520370688
    The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
    That and underfunding. Current rates for a first year trainee solicitor with the CPS are about £18.5k pa - just under the average graduate pay. The Law Society recommends a £22k minimum in London and a £19k minimum outside. Given you have a year or two of law school debts to pay on top of University loans they are not able to attract the brightest and best, or even above average, to prosecute cases and it’s that prep, rather than any flashy displays by the Bar in court, where cases are won and lost. Also means that they’ll prosecute any old shite.
    Certainly top graduates from law school will head for city law firms with starting salaries £50k plus or if they are super bright the commercial bar where pupils can even earn six figures.

    However criminal law is generally underpaid and not just at the CPS, the average defence solicitor earns little more than the average salary and even criminal barristers earn only about £15 to £20 k as pupils
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -


    Which is why Conditional Discharges exist
    A conditional discharge still gives you a criminal record. And he had pretty watertight excuse for not being in his home. Unlike some.
    Yes. It’s clearly something that was overlooked in drafting and should be fixed. But as it stands he broke the law.
    Well, no, he has a defence, regulation 6(4), specifically refers to homeless people, as clear as day in the drafting, which is why the decision to prosecute is all the more sinister -

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

    I somehow doubt this chap can afford a solicitor - and don’t get me started on Legal Aid.
    How can the CPS prosecute when there is a clear defence? Why didn’t the judge throw it out?

    Setting aside the possibility that they are all idiots I assume there is more to the story than we know
    No - they are idiots

    https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/status/1261265439520370688
    The CPS is useless. I put it down to incredibly weak leadership for the last 10-15 years
    That and underfunding. Current rates for a first year trainee solicitor with the CPS are about £18.5k pa - just under the average graduate pay. The Law Society recommends a £22k minimum in London and a £19k minimum outside. Given you have a year or two of law school debts to pay on top of University loans they are not able to attract the brightest and best, or even above average, to prosecute cases and it’s that prep, rather than any flashy displays by the Bar in court, where cases are won and lost. Also means that they’ll prosecute any old shite.
    Certainly top graduates from law school will head for city law firms with starting salaries £50k plus or if they are super bright the commercial bar where pupils can even earn six figures.

    However criminal law is generally underpaid and not just at the CPS, the average defence solicitor earns little more than the average salary and even criminal barristers earn only about £15 to £20 k as pupils
    Erm...you do know what I do for a living, don’t you?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
    The shocking thing about Cummings is that his actions exposed other to a lethal risk, probably his parents....I don't believe the crap that he went to see his sister only
    Was he even ill? Was his wife ill? Did they ever test positive?

    The problem might be they were never ill but claimed they were to the public.

    Then staying with parents in country retreat makes a lot more sense and is a lot less dangerous to his parents. Just more clearly against the rules.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:


    However criminal law is generally underpaid and not just at the CPS, the average defence solicitor earns little more than the average salary and even criminal barristers earn only about £15 to £20 k as pupils

    Erm...you do know what I do for a living, don’t you?
    Blog commenter? :D:D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Just noticed this on Lockdownsceptics:

    " At the Downing Street press briefing on Thursday, Matt Hancock announced that “around 17% of people in London… have tested positive for coronavirus antibodies” based on “the results of our antibody surveillance study...

    Stop Press: I put in a call to the Department of Health and Social Care to try and find out a bit more about this data and have been told it comes from Public Health England’s seroprevalence study, the results of which are due to be published next week. The 17% estimate comes from studying 974 NHS blood transfusion donors in London between May 1st and 3rd. So a small sample and hardly a representative one."

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
    I've had coronavirus. So I'm almost certainly immune. I won't be exposing myself to a potentially fatal disease.

    Am I now allowed to do what the hell I like?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:


    However criminal law is generally underpaid and not just at the CPS, the average defence solicitor earns little more than the average salary and even criminal barristers earn only about £15 to £20 k as pupils

    Erm...you do know what I do for a living, don’t you?
    Blog commenter? :D:D
    Pay would be better! But yes, I’ve been on here for two days now, there is truth in your jest!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Completely off topic

    Interesting election result in Virginia yesterday - Republicans took hold of a City council in an area that had voted for Hillary in 2016 on a turnout that more than doubled since the last election (17000 vs 7000). Commentators putting it down to a major backlash against both the CV lockdown measures by Virginia's Dem Governor plus recent legislation on gun control and abortion,

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/elliebufkin/2020/05/22/red-wave-coming-democratic-stronghold-city-in-virginia-stunned-by-gop-sweep-n2569269

    I know a fair few on here were sceptical of the idea the Republicans would ever take Virginia in November but, if this is the spike in turnout they are getting for a city election, it suggests their base is massively fired up
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    edited May 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    He seems to prefer the Russian system where unelected bureaucrats can do what they want without scrutiny. (As long as they dress it up as the will of the people of course).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    @BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?

    I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.

    Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
    Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?

    I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
    Looks like you were completely unable to address my point, so that's telling in itself :wink:
    That’s because you didn’t have one. I am not one of the people who thought the prorogation decision would bring down the government, or result in Johnson or Cummings going, or indeed having any measurable effect on any (yet to be called) election. I also thought that, because of Corbyn, a Tory victory was nailed on. So I can’t really defend the position you ask me to.

    However I do know this issue is going to be like Black Wednesday in 1992 - people will remember this in 2024 the same way people remembered Black Wednesday in 1997. Black Wednesday hit people in their pockets (I remember my Dad freaking out about the mortgage) and irreparably damaged the Government. It never recovered. The decision of Lady Hale and her colleagues last year was about an arcane bit of constitutional law no one cared about. This, however, is about a government defending a man who put voter’s lives at risk by quite possibly acting as a super spreader from London to the North East, and certainly breaching strongly supported lockdown regs . The differences between the two situations you outline are blindingly obvious. And Corbyn’s gone.
    Prorogation and this incident have something in common. The government was taking the piss when it prorogued. That was the essence of the Supreme Court’s decision.

    The government has been telling the public for weeks now not to take the piss over lockdown. And now one of their own has been caught doing just that.

    There is a theme here - and it comes right from Boris - of people who think, in the words of Boris’s teacher - that the rules which apply to all don’t and shouldn’t apply to them. It is a very elitist view and it shows contempt for voters. That is what will do for this government in time.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    edited May 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    Not just any bureaucrat:

    An elite bureaucrat, with a castle amongst the many family homes and strong links to russian oligarchs.
    The populists see themselves as the rightful elite.

    "Well-being of core decision maker beats precise observing of rules."

    https://twitter.com/David_Goodhart/status/1264477222829805568
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    Cyclefree said:

    The biggest news today should be this:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1264459136441430016?s=21

    This government is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths.

    The second most important story is Sunak’s decision to end furlough for businesses legally unable to open thus leading to thousands of bankrupt businesses.
    Has he actually said that? The scheme is scheduled to change in August, and nearly all business are scheduled to be allowed to reopen in July?
    We don't know that. The plan/hope/vague aspiration is for them to reopen then.
    Plenty won't. Regardless of the "legality" or otherwise. Plenty more won't be able to function at a profitable capacity.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited May 2020
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
    The shocking thing about Cummings is that his actions exposed other to a lethal risk, probably his parents....I don't believe the crap that he went to see his sister only
    Well, one thing that is going to be rather difficult to lie about is whether there is really a separate house on the property that the Cummingses stayed in, and whether a third house would have been available for the sister to take care of the child in without putting the parents at risk.

    My bet is still that there's only one house.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    Chris said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
    The shocking thing about Cummings is that his actions exposed other to a lethal risk, probably his parents....I don't believe the crap that he went to see his sister only
    Well, one thing that is going to be rather difficult to lie about is whether there is really a separate house on the property that the Cummingses stayed in, and whether a third house would have been available for the sister to take care of the child in without putting the parents at risk.

    My bet is still that there's only one house.
    iirc there was a photo showing two houses.
  • A mountain of a molehill indeed.

    Goodbye Dominic!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
    I've had coronavirus. So I'm almost certainly immune.
    You reckon?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    No surprise Johnson’s ratings have plummeted from the high of Easter Sunday when the news broke that he had beaten the killer bug and left hospital. At that moment he was a hero to all but the most bitterly partisan of lefty remoaners. He had become “our PM” in the genuine sense of the term. There was no other way but down from such a peak.

    Except it strikes me there was. There was one way to prevent the slide into disrepute and Johnson missed a trick in not embracing it. Instead of winning his battle against the virus he could have fought like a lion for weeks before succumbing to it and dying. The popularity accruing from this course of action, I suggest, would have been even greater than we saw on the joyous day of his release. More crucially, it would have lasted. Grown even.

    They say politics is showbiz for ugly people and there is truth in this. Hendrix, Morrison, Joplin, Jones, Moon, Cobain – what do these have in common? The answer is 27. All checked out at that age and as a result they are frozen in our minds eye as potent icons at the top of their game. We see them forever thus, pure and untainted, prevented from shambling in later years around the pyramid stage in the tea-time Legends slot by the fact of being six feet under.

    As 27 is to musicians, so 55 is to a politician. The age at which you’ve made it, much done, but plenty lying ahead. It’s the sweet spot and to be cut down at this juncture delivers maximum poignancy and romantic appeal. If the RIP politician is ‘big’ a legend will be born. And Johnson is big. Very. So imagine the dimensions he’d assume if he were never to grow old on us, if he were to be pickled and stored for the nation just as he is now, our 55 year old boyish bouncy blond bomber. Always and forever our “Boris”. Ratings? They’d need a new scale. And Starmer or no Starmer, the next election in the bag.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    Scott_xP said:
    Not just any bureaucrat:

    An elite bureaucrat, with a castle amongst the many family homes and strong links to russian oligarchs.
    The populists see themselves as the rightful elite.

    "Well-being of core decision maker beats precise observing of rules."

    https://twitter.com/David_Goodhart/status/1264477222829805568
    Old Etonian endorses one rule for the elite, one rule for the plebs shocker.
  • JSpringJSpring Posts: 100
    One of the economic dangers is that people won't be willing to visit hospitality venues even post-lockdown, due to a widespread belief that the virus is worse than it actually is. This is why the actions of Cummings, Professor Ferguson etc may actually be helpful, as they may contribute to a reduction in the paranoia amongst the masses, and therefore, perhaps, make the longer term economic damage less severe.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Please don’t resign, please don’t resign!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    How many views has that Andrew Neil empty-chair video had by now? I remember being assured by someone that it would have massive electoral cut-through.

    Must be tens of millions by now... :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    MrEd said:

    Completely off topic

    Interesting election result in Virginia yesterday - Republicans took hold of a City council in an area that had voted for Hillary in 2016 on a turnout that more than doubled since the last election (17000 vs 7000). Commentators putting it down to a major backlash against both the CV lockdown measures by Virginia's Dem Governor plus recent legislation on gun control and abortion,

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/elliebufkin/2020/05/22/red-wave-coming-democratic-stronghold-city-in-virginia-stunned-by-gop-sweep-n2569269

    I know a fair few on here were sceptical of the idea the Republicans would ever take Virginia in November but, if this is the spike in turnout they are getting for a city election, it suggests their base is massively fired up

    Against Biden I expect Trump to do slightly worse than he did v Hillary in white working class areas and the Midwest and rustbelt but better than he did v Hillary in wealthy upper middle class areas like suburban Virginia and Orange County, California.


    Plus as you say Trump's core vote remains fired up for him
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Chris said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
    The shocking thing about Cummings is that his actions exposed other to a lethal risk, probably his parents....I don't believe the crap that he went to see his sister only
    Well, one thing that is going to be rather difficult to lie about is whether there is really a separate house on the property that the Cummingses stayed in, and whether a third house would have been available for the sister to take care of the child in without putting the parents at risk.

    My bet is still that there's only one house.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8350755/amp/Ministers-squirm-insist-Dominic-Cummings-did-NOT-break-rules.html
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    @BluestBlue are you back to continually tell us, all day, that you are not bothered in the slightest?

    I know right, how very dare I not do and say exactly what you want? I forgot that your view was the only one permitted on the forum.

    Remember how confident you were after the prorogation was rescinded? Kind of similar to how you're feeling now, right?
    Maybe try addressing the issues rather than constantly boasting about how well your party did last year before a disaster that has claimed in the region of 40,000 lives, many as a result of its incompetence, struck?

    I’m an Ipswich Town fan - you sound like I do when I get drunk and wax lyrically about the 1978 FA Cup Final and the 1981 UEFA Cup. Things are a bit different now.
    Looks like you were completely unable to address my point, so that's telling in itself :wink:
    That’s because you didn’t have one. I am not one of the people who thought the prorogation decision would bring down the government, or result in Johnson or Cummings going, or indeed having any measurable effect on any (yet to be called) election. I also thought that, because of Corbyn, a Tory victory was nailed on. So I can’t really defend the position you ask me to.

    However I do know this issue is going to be like Black Wednesday in 1992 - people will remember this in 2024 the same way people remembered Black Wednesday in 1997. Black Wednesday hit people in their pockets (I remember my Dad freaking out about the mortgage) and irreparably damaged the Government. It never recovered. The decision of Lady Hale and her colleagues last year was about an arcane bit of constitutional law no one cared about. This, however, is about a government defending a man who put voter’s lives at risk by quite possibly acting as a super spreader from London to the North East, and certainly breaching strongly supported lockdown regs . The differences between the two situations you outline are blindingly obvious. And Corbyn’s gone.
    Mortgage rates fell because of Black Wednesday.

    What hit people in their pockets was the ERM membership which Black Wednesday brought to an end.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Chris said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    How many MPs need to break cover before Downing Street gives up? 15? 20? 30?

    at what point does the 1922 start counting letters?
    If Cummings goes, Johnson goes. So I don;t see them giving up.
    I think that is wishful thinking.

    The only way Boris will go is if he has to stand down due to health

    And I am not at all happy with Boris going awol
    With one big kill to their name the press will scent another. If Cummings goes the next question is "what did Boris know?"

    Cummings either needs to be fired by Boris NOW or Boris, with an 80 seat majority behind him keeps his man. The dissenters will fall back into line on Boris' command.
    Trust me, by close of play on Friday the lock down will be over in Cummings hasn't gone.

    This is the only news story and screams one rule for us, another for everyone else.
    The lockdown is already over.

    What we still have is a partial shutdown.
    Post Cummings, we now have Liberty Hall.

    Anyone can break the rules now, using common sense and looking after their family interests.

    That is the significance. BoZo is just a cork in a storm, and not a visible one at that. The government has no authority anymore.
    This is really one of the most childish takes on this whole story. Anyone so miffed about Cummings' behaviour that they deliberately expose themselves to a potentially-fatal disease out of spite deserves a Darwin Award.
    The shocking thing about Cummings is that his actions exposed other to a lethal risk, probably his parents....I don't believe the crap that he went to see his sister only
    Well, one thing that is going to be rather difficult to lie about is whether there is really a separate house on the property that the Cummingses stayed in, and whether a third house would have been available for the sister to take care of the child in without putting the parents at risk.

    My bet is still that there's only one house.
    The Mail had photos iirc. There are out buildings.
This discussion has been closed.