Is the relative proportion of the UK cases in London falling a little? Today it is 31.8% and London makes up about 15% of the population of the UK. Either the rest of the country is catching up and / or that infections are getting more spread? Doesn't seem like there are other very obvious hotspots anyway...
Indeed - London was at 39% of UK cases about a week ago.
EDIT: Surrey seems to be going up quite a lot. I wonder if it's going through a few care homes?
Simply cannot ask constructive questions but rather looking for a gotcha moment
The media are rapidly becoming the bad guys in this
She was positively ghoulish. I am all for asking searching questions but a lot of the blame for the food shortages, the panic and the concern lies squarely at their door.
You have overseen a massive reduction in Acute Capacity and beds during your tenure as well as a reduction of critical care beds. Was that shortsighted
Given that places with 4 or 5 times the excess icu capacity to us are still struggling looks to me that they were hosing money for no good reason as come the crunch they still weren't able to cope.
All this excess capacity needs to be payed for. Millions of people already just on the tipping point between managing and not managing. a couple of % extra tax would tip them over.
Most people who go on about an extra % for this and an extra % for that on tax I can't help noticing are the comfortably off where if it makes a difference at all they may buy couple of less bottles of wine a month. They generally don't fall into the I can make the money last by eating beans on toast the last few days of the month.
That is another thing highlighted by this crisis. That so many people - in work - are barely managing. So if you're right that the only way we can improve the NHS is by making such people even poorer then we will just have to make do without it. But I don't think you ARE right.
Average household income (estimated for end of 2019) was 29200 source
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
The issue is one of compulsion.
Spain is insisting that the German taxpayer does this rather than the German taxpayer volunteering
(and, for the record, I have been very critical of German politicians for their refusal to help Greece and - as I would expect - their refusal to help Spain financially)
Why? There is nothing in any of the EU treaties on sovereign debt risk pooling. The choice for Greece was to leave the Euro or accept the conditions of the bail out. Ultimately they chose to stay in the Euro and had to live with the consequences.
Why should the Germans, Dutch, Austrians etc... be forced into standing behind debt they didn't write for money that they have no oversight in spending?
Because Germany had profited massively over the 15 years before the crisis - they have impoverished Greece. That may have been the fault of successive Greek governments, but sometimes helping out is the right thing to do
To be fair, that will only become clear as the general mortality stats come out. I see there is confusion over the 21 year old who was reported to have died with it.
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
As mentioned several times, the latency period is long - most of Italy has been in lockdown for 2.5 weeks - so we have to be a little more patient to see if it is working.
PS Without the lockdown cases would be rising exponentially now, so it is clearly having an effect.
Moreover, to give a hint that things are getting better, in Lombardy they are expanding the people they are going to test and the governor of the region (who has been very pessimistic throughout) has said that he thinks the number of new cases is starting to fall.
I don't want to be pedantic, but we are already in an exponential growth situation. If you plot a graph of Log(case numbers) against time you will get a rising straight line. That is the definition of exponential.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
The issue is one of compulsion.
Spain is insisting that the German taxpayer does this rather than the German taxpayer volunteering
(and, for the record, I have been very critical of German politicians for their refusal to help Greece and - as I would expect - their refusal to help Spain financially)
Why? There is nothing in any of the EU treaties on sovereign debt risk pooling. The choice for Greece was to leave the Euro or accept the conditions of the bail out. Ultimately they chose to stay in the Euro and had to live with the consequences.
Why should the Germans, Dutch, Austrians etc... be forced into standing behind debt they didn't write for money that they have no oversight in spending?
Because Germany had profited massively over the 15 years before the crisis - they have impoverished Greece. That may have been the fault of successive Greek governments, but sometimes helping out is the right thing to do
To correct you there Charles some in Germany have profitted massively
Given that places with 4 or 5 times the excess icu capacity to us are still struggling looks to me that they were hosing money for no good reason as come the crunch they still weren't able to cope.
All this excess capacity needs to be payed for. Millions of people already just on the tipping point between managing and not managing. a couple of % extra tax would tip them over.
Most people who go on about an extra % for this and an extra % for that on tax I can't help noticing are the comfortably off where if it makes a difference at all they may buy couple of less bottles of wine a month. They generally don't fall into the I can make the money last by eating beans on toast the last few days of the month.
That is another thing highlighted by this crisis. That so many people - in work - are barely managing. So if you're right that the only way we can improve the NHS is by making such people even poorer then we will just have to make do without it. But I don't think you ARE right.
Average household income (estimated for end of 2019) was 29200 source
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
The issue is one of compulsion.
Spain is insisting that the German taxpayer does this rather than the German taxpayer volunteering
(and, for the record, I have been very critical of German politicians for their refusal to help Greece and - as I would expect - their refusal to help Spain financially)
Why? There is nothing in any of the EU treaties on sovereign debt risk pooling. The choice for Greece was to leave the Euro or accept the conditions of the bail out. Ultimately they chose to stay in the Euro and had to live with the consequences.
Why should the Germans, Dutch, Austrians etc... be forced into standing behind debt they didn't write for money that they have no oversight in spending?
In this context the earlier comment from Mr Smithson jr. should be considered, who pointed out that the explosive expansion of the ECB's bond buying programme will increasingly constitute de facto pooling of debt. Potentially problematic for the reasons you mentioned, but without alternative at this point.
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
As mentioned several times, the latency period is long - most of Italy has been in lockdown for 2.5 weeks - so we have to be a little more patient to see if it is working.
PS Without the lockdown cases would be rising exponentially now, so it is clearly having an effect.
Moreover, to give a hint that things are getting better, in Lombardy they are expanding the people they are going to test and the governor of the region (who has been very pessimistic throughout) has said that he thinks the number of new cases is starting to fall.
I don't want to be pedantic, but we are already in an exponential growth situation. If you plot a graph of Log(case numbers) against time you will get a rising straight line. That is the definition of exponential.
The UK graphs aren't quite following a straight line against a logarithmic y axis - there is a small reduction in the gradient.
And governments should run surpluses during the good times so they can borrow through the bad times.
This is the point I am making. You need resilience in the NHS as you do in things such as the public finances and bank balance sheets. Measured differently, of course, but the same idea.
Given that places with 4 or 5 times the excess icu capacity to us are still struggling looks to me that they were hosing money for no good reason as come the crunch they still weren't able to cope.
All this excess capacity needs to be payed for. Millions of people already just on the tipping point between managing and not managing. a couple of % extra tax would tip them over.
Most people who go on about an extra % for this and an extra % for that on tax I can't help noticing are the comfortably off where if it makes a difference at all they may buy couple of less bottles of wine a month. They generally don't fall into the I can make the money last by eating beans on toast the last few days of the month.
That is another thing highlighted by this crisis. That so many people - in work - are barely managing. So if you're right that the only way we can improve the NHS is by making such people even poorer then we will just have to make do without it. But I don't think you ARE right.
Average household income (estimated for end of 2019) was 29200 source
That works out for a couple as about 2240 a month after tax
in my area (south east) that couple will pay the following (I estimated low end and assumed no children)
1000 rent 180 council tax 200 commuting costs (for 2) 120 gas and electric 80 comms/isp/mobile/phone etc ============================= 1580
total to spend on food therefore 660 assuming no other expenses and all low end estimates
total tax an ni paid a month 93.75 each
You really think raising tax or NI isnt going to have a bad effect on these sort of people. A lot of couples remember earn even less
Rent will be the first thing likely to be hit - especially if tenants cannot be easily evicted...
We were discussing however keeping over capacity in the NHS in good times not the bad and I was pointing out to Kinablu it has to be paid for and that tax rises would shift many from just about scraping by to not managing he doubted it so I gave figures
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
The phrase "Now is not the time..." comes to mind.
What was it the chap said about "When my neighbours house is on fire, I lend him my hose, not quibble about the price"?
I'm not sure whether that is in favour of coronabonds or not?
The issue is Spain, Italy and France were trying to push through a novel programme which Holland and Germany have opposed for a decade (basically Holland and Germany being on the hook for Spain's borrowing).
Not to be pedantic, but calling the Netherlands "Holland" is a bit like calling the UK "England", something likely to touch on some peoples' sensibilities.
Given the majority on here think England is the UK, do not be surprised about ignorance re pesky foreigners.
Now now malc- nobody can survive this crisis without the 4 nations pulling as one - the Tunnocks teacakes are going down a treat here for a start.
I don't think that's a particularly great question.
Firstly, it isn't necessarily immediately obvious if a person with a chronic illness has died with or of.
Secondly, it misses the big issue of a trajectory of infections, a proportion of which are very serious, and the risk that this overwhelms health services. That is related, but not closely.
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Douglas Hurd.
Edwina curry
Douglas Hurd and Edwina Currie are good answers except they both bowed out in 1997 which was the starting date for the quiz. Hurd's seat was taken by David Cameron iirc.
My son rents - I understand he is safe from eviction for duration but does anyone know if you have to pay the 3 months in one go at end or is there some mechanism?
My son rents - I understand he is safe from eviction for duration but does anyone know if you have to pay the 3 months in one go at end or is there some mechanism?
I believe the rent still needs to be paid and it isn't a safe from eviction. They have merely said that the minimum notice period is now 3 months
My son rents - I understand he is safe from eviction for duration but does anyone know if you have to pay the 3 months in one go at end or is there some mechanism?
I believe the rent still needs to be paid and it isn't a safe from eviction. They have merely said that the minimum notice period is now 3 months
My son rents - I understand he is safe from eviction for duration but does anyone know if you have to pay the 3 months in one go at end or is there some mechanism?
I believe the rent still needs to be paid and it isn't a safe from eviction. They have merely said that the minimum notice period is now 3 months
Given that places with 4 or 5 times the excess icu capacity to us are still struggling looks to me that they were hosing money for no good reason as come the crunch they still weren't able to cope.
All this excess capacity needs to be payed for. Millions of people already just on the tipping point between managing and not managing. a couple of % extra tax would tip them over.
Most people who go on about an extra % for this and an extra % for that on tax I can't help noticing are the comfortably off where if it makes a difference at all they may buy couple of less bottles of wine a month. They generally don't fall into the I can make the money last by eating beans on toast the last few days of the month.
That is another thing highlighted by this crisis. That so many people - in work - are barely managing. So if you're right that the only way we can improve the NHS is by making such people even poorer then we will just have to make do without it. But I don't think you ARE right.
Average household income (estimated for end of 2019) was 29200 source
That works out for a couple as about 2240 a month after tax
in my area (south east) that couple will pay the following (I estimated low end and assumed no children)
1000 rent 180 council tax 200 commuting costs (for 2) 120 gas and electric 80 comms/isp/mobile/phone etc ============================= 1580
total to spend on food therefore 660 assuming no other expenses and all low end estimates
total tax an ni paid a month 93.75 each
You really think raising tax or NI isnt going to have a bad effect on these sort of people. A lot of couples remember earn even less
An important statistical point, is that average annual income of 29200 the mean or the median? If it is the median, half of all households earn less. If it is the mean many more than half will earn less than this amount as income is well known as a highly skewed distribution. Without looking it up I estimate that over 60% of households earn under the mean income.
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Douglas Hurd.
Edwina curry
Douglas Hurd and Edwina Currie are good answers except they both bowed out in 1997 which was the starting date for the quiz. Hurd's seat was taken by David Cameron iirc.
My son rents - I understand he is safe from eviction for duration but does anyone know if you have to pay the 3 months in one go at end or is there some mechanism?
I believe the rent still needs to be paid and it isn't a safe from eviction. They have merely said that the minimum notice period is now 3 months
Did you try the catan link btw?
ah - thats not particularly great
If he misses a rent payment, he'll get three months' notice that they intend to evict him.
Twitter reports that Chris Whitty has tested positive. Coronavirus is running rampant through Westminster.
Testing the herd immunity strategy...
More seriously this is really bad. We can ill afford to have the egg-heads out of action.
We could lose politicians and journos, but god knows we need Chris Whitty. This is not good at all, but does demonstrate to the dimmer members of the public that this thing is very contagious.
Bit drama queen there, I am sure we have plenty of capable medical people who could cover it.
Given that places with 4 or 5 times the excess icu capacity to us are still struggling looks to me that they were hosing money for no good reason as come the crunch they still weren't able to cope.
All this excess capacity needs to be payed for. Millions of people already just on the tipping point between managing and not managing. a couple of % extra tax would tip them over.
Most people who go on about an extra % for this and an extra % for that on tax I can't help noticing are the comfortably off where if it makes a difference at all they may buy couple of less bottles of wine a month. They generally don't fall into the I can make the money last by eating beans on toast the last few days of the month.
That is another thing highlighted by this crisis. That so many people - in work - are barely managing. So if you're right that the only way we can improve the NHS is by making such people even poorer then we will just have to make do without it. But I don't think you ARE right.
Average household income (estimated for end of 2019) was 29200 source
That works out for a couple as about 2240 a month after tax
in my area (south east) that couple will pay the following (I estimated low end and assumed no children)
1000 rent 180 council tax 200 commuting costs (for 2) 120 gas and electric 80 comms/isp/mobile/phone etc ============================= 1580
total to spend on food therefore 660 assuming no other expenses and all low end estimates
total tax an ni paid a month 93.75 each
You really think raising tax or NI isnt going to have a bad effect on these sort of people. A lot of couples remember earn even less
An important statistical point, is that average annual income of 29200 the mean or the median? If it is the median, half of all households earn less. If it is the mean many more than half will earn less than this amount as income is well known as a highly skewed distribution. Without looking it up I estimate that over 60% of households earn under the mean income.
It is median and I note I wrote it wrong its actually 29600 not that it makes a huge difference
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
The issue is one of compulsion.
Spain is insisting that the German taxpayer does this rather than the German taxpayer volunteering
(and, for the record, I have been very critical of German politicians for their refusal to help Greece and - as I would expect - their refusal to help Spain financially)
Why? There is nothing in any of the EU treaties on sovereign debt risk pooling. The choice for Greece was to leave the Euro or accept the conditions of the bail out. Ultimately they chose to stay in the Euro and had to live with the consequences.
Why should the Germans, Dutch, Austrians etc... be forced into standing behind debt they didn't write for money that they have no oversight in spending?
Because Germany had profited massively over the 15 years before the crisis - they have impoverished Greece. That may have been the fault of successive Greek governments, but sometimes helping out is the right thing to do
To correct you there Charles some in Germany have profitted massively
True, although given that a lot of the money went on fancy cars a lot of German workers had good jobs as a result (although obviously the Klatten/Quandts did well)
Given that places with 4 or 5 times the excess icu capacity to us are still struggling looks to me that they were hosing money for no good reason as come the crunch they still weren't able to cope.
All this excess capacity needs to be payed for. Millions of people already just on the tipping point between managing and not managing. a couple of % extra tax would tip them over.
Most people who go on about an extra % for this and an extra % for that on tax I can't help noticing are the comfortably off where if it makes a difference at all they may buy couple of less bottles of wine a month. They generally don't fall into the I can make the money last by eating beans on toast the last few days of the month.
That is another thing highlighted by this crisis. That so many people - in work - are barely managing. So if you're right that the only way we can improve the NHS is by making such people even poorer then we will just have to make do without it. But I don't think you ARE right.
Average household income (estimated for end of 2019) was 29200 source
That works out for a couple as about 2240 a month after tax
in my area (south east) that couple will pay the following (I estimated low end and assumed no children)
1000 rent 180 council tax 200 commuting costs (for 2) 120 gas and electric 80 comms/isp/mobile/phone etc ============================= 1580
total to spend on food therefore 660 assuming no other expenses and all low end estimates
total tax an ni paid a month 93.75 each
You really think raising tax or NI isnt going to have a bad effect on these sort of people. A lot of couples remember earn even less
An important statistical point, is that average annual income of 29200 the mean or the median? If it is the median, half of all households earn less. If it is the mean many more than half will earn less than this amount as income is well known as a highly skewed distribution. Without looking it up I estimate that over 60% of households earn under the mean income.
It is median and I note I wrote it wrong its actually 29600 not that it makes a huge difference
My son rents - I understand he is safe from eviction for duration but does anyone know if you have to pay the 3 months in one go at end or is there some mechanism?
I believe the rent still needs to be paid and it isn't a safe from eviction. They have merely said that the minimum notice period is now 3 months
Did you try the catan link btw?
ah - thats not particularly great
If he misses a rent payment, he'll get three months' notice that they intend to evict him.
Depends however if he has a nice landlord or he has Foxtons
Don't be daft, we are doing what we are doing to protect lives, like every other country in the entire world. Don't try to parlay that into NHS worship.
I dislike the "NHS as religion" stuff - e.g that Danny Boyle London Olympics show, the bouncing nurses were not my favourite bit. But after the 08 crash we had a good hard look at the banks and we beefed them up so it couldn't happen again (although of course it will). So here, with the NHS, there is a similar need. Quite a banal point, actually, so I ought to be moving on before everyone notices that.
Which British Prime Minister was the artist Patrick Caulfield referring to when he said: "Only one photographer has managed to make him look intelligent."?
Given that places with 4 or 5 times the excess icu capacity to us are still struggling looks to me that they were hosing money for no good reason as come the crunch they still weren't able to cope.
All this excess capacity needs to be payed for. Millions of people already just on the tipping point between managing and not managing. a couple of % extra tax would tip them over.
Most people who go on about an extra % for this and an extra % for that on tax I can't help noticing are the comfortably off where if it makes a difference at all they may buy couple of less bottles of wine a month. They generally don't fall into the I can make the money last by eating beans on toast the last few days of the month.
That is another thing highlighted by this crisis. That so many people - in work - are barely managing. So if you're right that the only way we can improve the NHS is by making such people even poorer then we will just have to make do without it. But I don't think you ARE right.
Average household income (estimated for end of 2019) was 29200 source
That works out for a couple as about 2240 a month after tax
in my area (south east) that couple will pay the following (I estimated low end and assumed no children)
1000 rent 180 council tax 200 commuting costs (for 2) 120 gas and electric 80 comms/isp/mobile/phone etc ============================= 1580
total to spend on food therefore 660 assuming no other expenses and all low end estimates
total tax an ni paid a month 93.75 each
You really think raising tax or NI isnt going to have a bad effect on these sort of people. A lot of couples remember earn even less
An important statistical point, is that average annual income of 29200 the mean or the median? If it is the median, half of all households earn less. If it is the mean many more than half will earn less than this amount as income is well known as a highly skewed distribution. Without looking it up I estimate that over 60% of households earn under the mean income.
It is median and I note I wrote it wrong its actually 29600 not that it makes a huge difference
+1
Thanks for the clarification.
I did link the source so could have looked as well
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
The issue is one of compulsion.
Spain is insisting that the German taxpayer does this rather than the German taxpayer volunteering
(and, for the record, I have been very critical of German politicians for their refusal to help Greece and - as I would expect - their refusal to help Spain financially)
Why? There is nothing in any of the EU treaties on sovereign debt risk pooling. The choice for Greece was to leave the Euro or accept the conditions of the bail out. Ultimately they chose to stay in the Euro and had to live with the consequences.
Why should the Germans, Dutch, Austrians etc... be forced into standing behind debt they didn't write for money that they have no oversight in spending?
In this context the earlier comment from Mr Smithson jr. should be considered, who pointed out that the explosive expansion of the ECB's bond buying programme will increasingly constitute de facto pooling of debt. Potentially problematic for the reasons you mentioned, but without alternative at this point.
There is a difference between de facto and de jure though. The ECB programme will be much easier for Germany to unwind in future and - in theory - they have assets to back it (& can print money).
That is different to asking German taxpayers to be jointly and severally liable for debt
It could be very easily a requirement that you don't procure independently.
Other EU countries appear to be ordering ventilators through other routes as well which suggests there are no restrictions on procuring independently.
The EU Commission also has I think stepped in to stop/reduce Germany and France's ban on export of necessary medical equipment to ensure solidarity within the bloc.
The first article is from March 5, though (the second is less specific on whether independent orders have been placed).
The second article mentioned that Getinge produces at Solna, so Sweden. You also have Hamilton in Switzerland, Draeger and Lowenstein in Germany and Smiths in Luton
That was the other question I asked when people first started posting this. Do we know which countries are participating? (I specifically asked about Germany and Sweden because of their capabilities).
I'm sure we'll find out soon enough. My suspicion is this was a mistake rather than an ideological decision, given that the UK govt have said they missed the email rather than deliberately decided not to participate.
And governments should run surpluses during the good times so they can borrow through the bad times.
This is the point I am making. You need resilience in the NHS as you do in things such as the public finances and bank balance sheets. Measured differently, of course, but the same idea.
To be fair, though, I don't know what the NHS's normal utilisation of ICU beds is.
I suspect they thought they had built in sufficient resilience and hadn't
Absolutely wrong we did not do it to protect the NHS, we did it to protect people and the only way to do that was to ensure the NHS wasn't overwhelmed.
Semantics really. We are taking the measures to protect the NHS and hence protect lives.
Don't be daft, we are doing what we are doing to protect lives, like every other country in the entire world. Don't try to parlay that into NHS worship.
I dislike the "NHS as religion" stuff - e.g that Danny Boyle London Olympics show, the bouncing nurses were not my favourite bit. But after the 08 crash we had a good hard look at the banks and we beefed them up so it couldn't happen again (although of course it will). So here, with the NHS, there is a similar need. Quite a banal point, actually, so I ought to be moving on before everyone notices that.
You still haven't said how you plan to pay for it and all the other things you will want beefed up.
There are not enough upper tax bracket people so the burden will fall on everyone and in doing so you are going to push people into hardship. I showed you figures when you doubted me. I notice you didn't bother responding
The Cabinet is going to be a political version of the Diamond Princess.
We can watch the rats of infection, severe illness and so on, and extrapolate to the larger population
Hopefully the rats of infection will tail off.
I am sure it is an issue gnawing at their thoughts. They will need to hole up for a while.
I hope that's a sign you're feeling better, Foxy!
Just about to start a remote meeting. Could be a total disaster as I've never used the tech for group chat before.
hope its not Webex :-)
Only taken us 8 days to get to grips with Microsoft Teams
Microsoft are the big winners from this ill wind imo. Huge uptake of Teams and Azure, and Bill Gates looks like a genius for warning about pandemics since 2015.
Absolutely wrong we did not do it to protect the NHS, we did it to protect people and the only way to do that was to ensure the NHS wasn't overwhelmed.
Semantics really. We are taking the measures to protect the NHS and hence protect lives.
We would be taking the same measures whether we had the NHS or any other european health scheme. We are not protecting the NHS. You conflate protecting people with your idol worship
Which British Prime Minister was the artist Patrick Caulfield referring to when he said: "Only one photographer has managed to make him look intelligent."?
Which British Prime Minister was the artist Patrick Caulfield referring to when he said: "Only one photographer has managed to make him look intelligent."?
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
As mentioned several times, the latency period is long - most of Italy has been in lockdown for 2.5 weeks - so we have to be a little more patient to see if it is working.
PS Without the lockdown cases would be rising exponentially now, so it is clearly having an effect.
Moreover, to give a hint that things are getting better, in Lombardy they are expanding the people they are going to test and the governor of the region (who has been very pessimistic throughout) has said that he thinks the number of new cases is starting to fall.
I don't want to be pedantic, but we are already in an exponential growth situation. If you plot a graph of Log(case numbers) against time you will get a rising straight line. That is the definition of exponential.
The UK graphs aren't quite following a straight line against a logarithmic y axis - there is a small reduction in the gradient.
Once again the blockquotes have gone haywire. I did not write the above!
Cases: There is a very small kink around Mar 21 but overall from march 4th that line is about as straight as you get with real data. Deaths: The log curve since March 14th is definately curving down. On the linear y-axis the curve is fairly linear since that date, although the change in reporting times 2 days ago is clearly visible, and makes it harder to spot any curvature. I hope the UK manages to keep this curve linear in the next two weeks, that will be really really good news.
The Cabinet is going to be a political version of the Diamond Princess.
We can watch the rats of infection, severe illness and so on, and extrapolate to the larger population
Hopefully the rats of infection will tail off.
I am sure it is an issue gnawing at their thoughts. They will need to hole up for a while.
I hope that's a sign you're feeling better, Foxy!
Just about to start a remote meeting. Could be a total disaster as I've never used the tech for group chat before.
hope its not Webex :-)
Only taken us 8 days to get to grips with Microsoft Teams
Microsoft are the big winners from this ill wind imo. Huge uptake of Teams and Azure, and Bill Gates looks like a genius for warning about pandemics since 2015.
Indeed - London was at 39% of UK cases about a week ago.
EDIT: Surrey seems to be going up quite a lot. I wonder if it's going through a few care homes?
Someone told me four elderly residents at a County Council run residential home for the elderly who had all tested positive for COVID-19, have all recovered and are doing well.
Sunak easily winning the award for "trying not to look like a Tory"
Although he sooo looks like a Goldman Sachs banker
I don't know why we have to endure these stage managed picture of "Minister at work at home". That picture looks contrived and is so full of obvious subliminal messaging it's almost constipated by it.
Not quite as bad as Boris "Two Flags" standing up to speak to HMQ and trying to be the most patriotic person who has ever lived.
You still haven't said how you plan to pay for it and all the other things you will want beefed up.
There are not enough upper tax bracket people so the burden will fall on everyone and in doing so you are going to push people into hardship. I showed you figures when you doubted me. I notice you didn't bother responding
It's not that I didn't bother. I "liked" it to show I read it but am not able here and now to do a detailed response. I've got to make a risotto. But in a nutshell - we pay for it with higher taxes on the better off and on business, and by cutting other areas of spending. Except we won't be able to - because the public finances are going to be wrecked after this. So we'll probably have to cut everything, including spending on the NHS.
4 passengers dead on Holland America cruise ship Zaandam - circa 150 have flu like symptoms and 2 people have tested positive - no one has been able to leave ship since March 14
4 passengers dead on Holland America cruise ship Zaandam - circa 150 have flu like symptoms and 2 people have tested positive - no one has been able to leave ship since March 14
We would be taking the same measures whether we had the NHS or any other european health scheme. We are not protecting the NHS. You conflate protecting people with your idol worship
Which British Prime Minister was the artist Patrick Caulfield referring to when he said: "Only one photographer has managed to make him look intelligent."?
Alec Douglas -Home?
No.
No other takers for my quiz question? It was John Major.
4 passengers dead on Holland America cruise ship Zaandam - circa 150 have flu like symptoms and 2 people have tested positive - no one has been able to leave ship since March 14
I think the cruise industry will simply collapse after this. Horrific.
All about the contents not the surrounding. Not a lot of wasted space, organised but with some additional ones piled around so it looks used not just neatly ordered and left alone.
Thanks for all the kind wishes. I'm trying to be positive and keep my spirits high but I am a bit of a worrier. Wife had minimal symptoms (she had a slight sore throat for one day that has passed), my little boy has a dry cough that doesn't seem to worry him in the slightest (worries me though!).
Which British Prime Minister was the artist Patrick Caulfield referring to when he said: "Only one photographer has managed to make him look intelligent."?
Alec Douglas -Home?
No.
No other takers for my quiz question? It was John Major.
I was about to suggest Heath but then decided all those pictures of him conducting made him look intelligent ex officio.
4 passengers dead on Holland America cruise ship Zaandam - circa 150 have flu like symptoms and 2 people have tested positive - no one has been able to leave ship since March 14
I was on that ship 3 years ago in more or less the same place.
4 passengers dead on Holland America cruise ship Zaandam - circa 150 have flu like symptoms and 2 people have tested positive - no one has been able to leave ship since March 14
I think the cruise industry will simply collapse after this. Horrific.
Comments
EDIT: Surrey seems to be going up quite a lot. I wonder if it's going through a few care homes?
You have overseen a massive reduction in Acute Capacity and beds during your tenure as well as a reduction of critical care beds. Was that shortsighted
source
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2019
That works out for a couple as about 2240 a month after tax
in my area (south east) that couple will pay the following (I estimated low end and assumed no children)
1000 rent
180 council tax
200 commuting costs (for 2)
120 gas and electric
80 comms/isp/mobile/phone etc
=============================
1580
total to spend on food therefore 660 assuming no other expenses and all low end estimates
total tax an ni paid a month 93.75 each
You really think raising tax or NI isnt going to have a bad effect on these sort of people. A lot of couples remember earn even less
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1243550854315212801?s=21
Simon Stephens is culpable IMO
I don't want to be pedantic, but we are already in an exponential growth situation. If you plot a graph of Log(case numbers) against time you will get a rising straight line. That is the definition of exponential.
The UK graphs aren't quite following a straight line against a logarithmic y axis - there is a small reduction in the gradient.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Firstly, it isn't necessarily immediately obvious if a person with a chronic illness has died with or of.
Secondly, it misses the big issue of a trajectory of infections, a proportion of which are very serious, and the risk that this overwhelms health services. That is related, but not closely.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1243543825781489667?s=20
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1243542274497220615?s=20
Did you try the catan link btw?
If it is the mean many more than half will earn less than this amount as income is well known as a highly skewed distribution. Without looking it up I estimate that over 60% of households earn under the mean income.
Thanks for the clarification.
Which British Prime Minister was the artist Patrick Caulfield referring to when he said: "Only one photographer has managed to make him look intelligent."?
That is different to asking German taxpayers to be jointly and severally liable for debt
I'm sure we'll find out soon enough. My suspicion is this was a mistake rather than an ideological decision, given that the UK govt have said they missed the email rather than deliberately decided not to participate.
I suspect they thought they had built in sufficient resilience and hadn't
There are not enough upper tax bracket people so the burden will fall on everyone and in doing so you are going to push people into hardship. I showed you figures when you doubted me. I notice you didn't bother responding
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Once again the blockquotes have gone haywire. I did not write the above!
Cases: There is a very small kink around Mar 21 but overall from march 4th that line is about as straight as you get with real data.
Deaths: The log curve since March 14th is definately curving down. On the linear y-axis the curve is fairly linear since that date, although the change in reporting times 2 days ago is clearly visible, and makes it harder to spot any curvature. I hope the UK manages to keep this curve linear in the next two weeks, that will be really really good news.
A rare piece of good news.
Not quite as bad as Boris "Two Flags" standing up to speak to HMQ and trying to be the most patriotic person who has ever lived.
https://tinyurl.com/sodubf5
I think it's possibly the most pointless invention of all time.
Personally I only have the one screen, but my pc and PS4 are set up to it so I can switch between them easily.
2. 👉👌😴 🥳 (Champagne Club) - LAY-BORE PARTY
3. 🤥🤗 🗳🗳 (Architects of austerity) - LIE-BRILL DEMOCRATS
Honestly.
Mind you he is working in a room with Bookcases, we have a library room for that.
And I think we have 15 Billy bookcases in the house (it used to be more but I binned a few a while back)..
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/