Hi All. Been feeling slightly under the weather since Sunday. Started off with a persistent sore throat (and associated tickly cough) which has subsided today. Other symptoms have included chest tightness, body aches, headache and nausea. Symptoms are mild but the body aches and general malaise feeling (never felt like this before) have increased today. Tummy also feels a little upset today. Do *not* have a fever or a dry cough. I am suspecting that I have the dreaded virus...
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
The phrase "Now is not the time..." comes to mind.
What was it the chap said about "When my neighbours house is on fire, I lend him my hose, not quibble about the price"?
I'm not sure whether that is in favour of coronabonds or not?
The issue is Spain, Italy and France were trying to push through a novel programme which Holland and Germany have opposed for a decade (basically Holland and Germany being on the hook for Spain's borrowing).
Not to be pedantic, but calling the Netherlands "Holland" is a bit like calling the UK "England", something likely to touch on some peoples' sensibilities.
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Hi All. Been feeling slightly under the weather since Sunday. Started off with a persistent sore throat (and associated tickly cough) which has subsided today. Other symptoms have included chest tightness, body aches, headache and nausea. Symptoms are mild but the body aches and general malaise feeling (never felt like this before) have increased today. Tummy also feels a little upset today. Do *not* have a fever or a dry cough. I am suspecting that I have the dreaded virus...
Well whatever you have it doesn't sound like much fun so hope it clears up soon.
Its interesting how few cases there are in the big cities along the South Coast, especially as a number of them are within a one hour train ride of London, and these trains are jam packed with communters normally.
Hi All. Been feeling slightly under the weather since Sunday. Started off with a persistent sore throat (and associated tickly cough) which has subsided today. Other symptoms have included chest tightness, body aches, headache and nausea. Symptoms are mild but the body aches and general malaise feeling (never felt like this before) have increased today. Tummy also feels a little upset today. Do *not* have a fever or a dry cough. I am suspecting that I have the dreaded virus...
Does sound like it, Murali. Take care of yourself.
Hi All. Been feeling slightly under the weather since Sunday. Started off with a persistent sore throat (and associated tickly cough) which has subsided today. Other symptoms have included chest tightness, body aches, headache and nausea. Symptoms are mild but the body aches and general malaise feeling (never felt like this before) have increased today. Tummy also feels a little upset today. Do *not* have a fever or a dry cough. I am suspecting that I have the dreaded virus...
Leavers: those mad Remoaners making everything about Brexit.
Also Leavers: on no account should Britain participate with the EU in any aspect of tackling Covid-19.
This decision to spurn ventilators procured through the offices of the EU really could result in unnecessary deaths.
Or maybe, just maybe pooling resources doesn't make sense for a country that has manufacturing capacity of its own.
If you only look for your own advantage then yes, you might be correct.
I write this from a country that had a considerable headstart in terms of existing supply and , maybe more importantly, the manufacturing base to quickly churn out more of anything useful. My country and others reflexively resorted to an export ban, to secure their position. That maybe understandable in the first moment but on further reflexion it might not be the morally right thing to exclude other, less fortunate countries.
Further, the proposed scheme was not so much focused on merely distributing future supplies, but on increasing overall industrial output by transnational cooperation. A win-win aspect in addition to some zero-sum game. May sound familiar.
Maybe you're right, however, none of us here have the data available to us that the government does and the terms of the scheme either. As I said, on this front it could be that the UK taking part in the scheme may have been detrimental to our ability to secure the necessary equipment.
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Iain Duncan Smith wrote some really bad shite.
The book is notable for its uniformly negative reception, such that, as of May 2019, a paperback edition was never published.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
The phrase "Now is not the time..." comes to mind.
What was it the chap said about "When my neighbours house is on fire, I lend him my hose, not quibble about the price"?
I'm not sure whether that is in favour of coronabonds or not?
The issue is Spain, Italy and France were trying to push through a novel programme which Holland and Germany have opposed for a decade (basically Holland and Germany being on the hook for Spain's borrowing).
Not to be pedantic, but calling the Netherlands "Holland" is a bit like calling the UK "England", something likely to touch on some peoples' sensibilities.
*sensitivities
Thank you.
Don't, he is wrong.
Thank you.
By all means look up the definition of both words, and make up your own mind as to which is the more appropriate.
That doesn't actually work in practice, though. Even model lefty social democracies are trashing their economies and abolishing personal freedoms as we speak.
So our penny-pinching is a true economy, rather than a false one.
But if I offer you the Tardis and the chance to have been running ICU capacity at 10 times current levels for the last 10 years? I think you will take that chance and the net result is to save us all a fortune. It's the same rationale as for making banks hold excess capital. Black swan insurance. Fixing the roof when the sun is shining. Saving for a rainy day. Many a mickle makes a mackle.
But we only get a pandemic of this sort once every 50-100 years, so that's a hell of a lot of spare capacity to run just on the off chance the worst happens. But I do agree that our pandemic-specific preparedness should have been higher - ideally, every household in the country should have a set of high-quality reusable masks, for instance.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
That doesn't actually work in practice, though. Even model lefty social democracies are trashing their economies and abolishing personal freedoms as we speak.
So our penny-pinching is a true economy, rather than a false one.
But if I offer you the Tardis and the chance to have been running ICU capacity at 10 times current levels for the last 10 years? I think you will take that chance and the net result is to save us all a fortune. It's the same rationale as for making banks hold excess capital. Black swan insurance. Fixing the roof when the sun is shining. Saving for a rainy day. Many a mickle makes a mackle.
But we only get a pandemic of this sort once every 50-100 years, so that's a hell of a lot of spare capacity to run just on the off chance the worst happens. But I do agree that our pandemic-specific preparedness should have been higher - ideally, every household in the country should have a set of high-quality reusable masks, for instance.
If we had stockpiled ventilators, then it would have been a disease that doesn't attack the lungs....
A better plan would be to stockpile PPE, testing chemicals, automated lab testing systems and designs for various things that can be manufactured using rapid prototyping (CNC, 3D printing etc)
Hi All. Been feeling slightly under the weather since Sunday. Started off with a persistent sore throat (and associated tickly cough) which has subsided today. Other symptoms have included chest tightness, body aches, headache and nausea. Symptoms are mild but the body aches and general malaise feeling (never felt like this before) have increased today. Tummy also feels a little upset today. Do *not* have a fever or a dry cough. I am suspecting that I have the dreaded virus...
How many have/had it but are asymptomatic and untested?
50%?
Sadly, that's highly unlikely. From the Oxford study which explored the potential limits, it would require only one in a thousand infectees to need hospitalisation.
In Lombardy as we speak, nearly one in a thousand of the entire population are hospitalised right now. Add to that the number recovered and the number dead and the arithmetic doesn't seem to work at all, especially as herd immunity would kick in to slow infections well before 100% are infected. Probably at about 50%-60% infected.
It would be great to believe it, and it was at the limits of plausibility when it was suggested (which is why it was suggested - that this was the absolute upper limit), but it's not something we should pile our hopes onto.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
Hi All. Been feeling slightly under the weather since Sunday. Started off with a persistent sore throat (and associated tickly cough) which has subsided today. Other symptoms have included chest tightness, body aches, headache and nausea. Symptoms are mild but the body aches and general malaise feeling (never felt like this before) have increased today. Tummy also feels a little upset today. Do *not* have a fever or a dry cough. I am suspecting that I have the dreaded virus...
I know we don't see eye to eye much on here but hope you stay well and it passes quickly for you.
Italy +7.4%. Seems to be a bit stubborn, that's it been 8%ish for five straight days.
It's the plateau I think. There is quite a long latency period (the 1-21 days we've spoken about) so we should expect the peak to be constant before hopefully starting to decline next week. But it's good that the number of cases has been constant for a week or so, hence linear and not exponential growth. Fingers crossed the decline starts soon (21 days since lockdown is Monday so I would hope by the middle of next week we see a more pronounced effect). Will also be good to see the number of tests from @rcs1000 to work out what fraction are positive...
That doesn't actually work in practice, though. Even model lefty social democracies are trashing their economies and abolishing personal freedoms as we speak.
So our penny-pinching is a true economy, rather than a false one.
But if I offer you the Tardis and the chance to have been running ICU capacity at 10 times current levels for the last 10 years? I think you will take that chance and the net result is to save us all a fortune. It's the same rationale as for making banks hold excess capital. Black swan insurance. Fixing the roof when the sun is shining. Saving for a rainy day. Many a mickle makes a mackle.
But we only get a pandemic of this sort once every 50-100 years, so that's a hell of a lot of spare capacity to run just on the off chance the worst happens. But I do agree that our pandemic-specific preparedness should have been higher - ideally, every household in the country should have a set of high-quality reusable masks, for instance.
If we had stockpiled ventilators, then it would have been a disease that doesn't attack the lungs....
A better plan would be to stockpile PPE, testing chemicals, automated lab testing systems and designs for various things that can be manufactured using rapid prototyping (CNC, 3D printing etc)
Oh, I quite agree - I was just thinking how amazing it would have been if the Government had had the ability to say to the country the moment it looked like Covid was about to hit, 'Right everyone, from today everyone must wear their masks in public places under penalty of law'. That would have blunted the hell out of the initial impact.
Unsure, might be just noise hopefully. The absolute number of increases is still awfully large, be nice to see that drop a bit to easy pressure on their health services.
That doesn't actually work in practice, though. Even model lefty social democracies are trashing their economies and abolishing personal freedoms as we speak.
So our penny-pinching is a true economy, rather than a false one.
But if I offer you the Tardis and the chance to have been running ICU capacity at 10 times current levels for the last 10 years? I think you will take that chance and the net result is to save us all a fortune. It's the same rationale as for making banks hold excess capital. Black swan insurance. Fixing the roof when the sun is shining. Saving for a rainy day. Many a mickle makes a mackle.
But we only get a pandemic of this sort once every 50-100 years, so that's a hell of a lot of spare capacity to run just on the off chance the worst happens. But I do agree that our pandemic-specific preparedness should have been higher - ideally, every household in the country should have a set of high-quality reusable masks, for instance.
If we had stockpiled ventilators, then it would have been a disease that doesn't attack the lungs....
A better plan would be to stockpile PPE, testing chemicals, automated lab testing systems and designs for various things that can be manufactured using rapid prototyping (CNC, 3D printing etc)
I really don't understand what it is with PPE - and I am open to being enlightened. Surgical masks, gloves, aprons and whatnot. Appreciate that's not all there is to it, and there's a lot of other more expensive and complex kit, but much of it is cheap, quick and easy to manufacture, and a great use of the (huge) manufacturing capacity in the UK left by both current and long standing idleness. I've heard no reason for it - underfunding won't cut it, funds are clearly available. Seems like just a massive failure of crisis management within the NHS to me. On a brighter note, lessons are being learned from this every single minute, so let's hope this crisis radically improves the NHS' systems.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
That doesn't actually work in practice, though. Even model lefty social democracies are trashing their economies and abolishing personal freedoms as we speak.
So our penny-pinching is a true economy, rather than a false one.
But if I offer you the Tardis and the chance to have been running ICU capacity at 10 times current levels for the last 10 years? I think you will take that chance and the net result is to save us all a fortune. It's the same rationale as for making banks hold excess capital. Black swan insurance. Fixing the roof when the sun is shining. Saving for a rainy day. Many a mickle makes a mackle.
But we only get a pandemic of this sort once every 50-100 years, so that's a hell of a lot of spare capacity to run just on the off chance the worst happens. But I do agree that our pandemic-specific preparedness should have been higher - ideally, every household in the country should have a set of high-quality reusable masks, for instance.
If we had stockpiled ventilators, then it would have been a disease that doesn't attack the lungs....
A better plan would be to stockpile PPE, testing chemicals, automated lab testing systems and designs for various things that can be manufactured using rapid prototyping (CNC, 3D printing etc)
Oh, I quite agree - I was just thinking how amazing it would have been if the Government had had the ability to say to the country the moment it looked like Covid was about to hit, 'Right everyone, from today everyone must wear their masks in public places under penalty of law'. That would have blunted the hell out of the initial impact.
This is where Dominic Cummings might have had a point with his superforecasters.
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
The phrase "Now is not the time..." comes to mind.
What was it the chap said about "When my neighbours house is on fire, I lend him my hose, not quibble about the price"?
I'm not sure whether that is in favour of coronabonds or not?
The issue is Spain, Italy and France were trying to push through a novel programme which Holland and Germany have opposed for a decade (basically Holland and Germany being on the hook for Spain's borrowing).
Not to be pedantic, but calling the Netherlands "Holland" is a bit like calling the UK "England", something likely to touch on some peoples' sensibilities.
Don't be pedantic then.
I didn't think I was. And I still think that it is a valid point to make, beyond any pedantry, given how much impetus you and many of your countrymen have placed on questions of national and quasi-national identity, in the past and in the present.
"Not to be pedantic" suggests that you did know you were being pedantic
I know perfectly well the difference between Holland and The Netherlands. However, I was on a mobile device and frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.
Generally, though, you do give the impression of being very spiky and Deutschland Uber Alles
Thank you.
"Not to be pedantic" was intended to signal that I was aware of the fact that there might be an aspect of pedantry in my point, but that there was nevertheless valid substance beyond that.
Whether you give a damn about other peoples' sensibilities/sensitivities is, of course, your own choice.
Edit: And, yes, of course, I have the Deutschlandlied playing in the background, on an endless loop, while hacking the keyboard, relentlessly.
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
Looks like some italians at least don't think much of the eu living up to obligations
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Douglas Hurd.
If we can go back in time Jeffrey Archer is too obvious.
Give the NHS £50bn a year more and within 5 years it'll be screaming out for more cash.
Which it should probably get.
You need to run excess capacity - an NHS "surplus" if you like - in the good (epidemic free) times so that when the bad times come (e.g. now) you can handle it without trashing the economy and abolishing personal freedom.
Prudence. Risk management. Sound finances.
And governments should run surpluses during the good times so they can borrow through the bad times.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
Looks like some italians at least don't think much of the eu living up to obligations
Remind us which of the advanced economies are not on virtual lockdown right now?
No doubt you want a snowplough on every street corner as well in case of a bad winter.
Yes, the point applies generally, not just to the UK. But I would ask you to consider this. We are right now prepared to risk a severe recession, trash our public finances for decades, and put our whole way of life on pause for months in order to protect the NHS. That is a measure of how valuable it is to us. So, given this, there is a need to radically re-assess its funding. That is surely one of the lessons here.
That doesn't actually work in practice, though. Even model lefty social democracies are trashing their economies and abolishing personal freedoms as we speak.
So our penny-pinching is a true economy, rather than a false one.
But if I offer you the Tardis and the chance to have been running ICU capacity at 10 times current levels for the last 10 years? I think you will take that chance and the net result is to save us all a fortune. It's the same rationale as for making banks hold excess capital. Black swan insurance. Fixing the roof when the sun is shining. Saving for a rainy day. Many a mickle makes a mackle.
But we only get a pandemic of this sort once every 50-100 years, so that's a hell of a lot of spare capacity to run just on the off chance the worst happens. But I do agree that our pandemic-specific preparedness should have been higher - ideally, every household in the country should have a set of high-quality reusable masks, for instance.
If we had stockpiled ventilators, then it would have been a disease that doesn't attack the lungs....
A better plan would be to stockpile PPE, testing chemicals, automated lab testing systems and designs for various things that can be manufactured using rapid prototyping (CNC, 3D printing etc)
Oh, I quite agree - I was just thinking how amazing it would have been if the Government had had the ability to say to the country the moment it looked like Covid was about to hit, 'Right everyone, from today everyone must wear their masks in public places under penalty of law'. That would have blunted the hell out of the initial impact.
Because masks do what? Amazing to live in a country of something must be done mania? Not for me, prefer listening to the experts.
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
But there's no treaty agreement or voter approval for pooling of sovereign debt risk, especially not among the countries who would be landed with the bill. Yes, it's a crisis and I understand that but until this idea has been debated in national parliaments and put to voters it would be massively unfair to ram it through. It's not asking people to help "each other" either, it's certain nations asking others to stand behind bonds with their credit ratings.
Remind us which of the advanced economies are not on virtual lockdown right now?
No doubt you want a snowplough on every street corner as well in case of a bad winter.
Yes, the point applies generally, not just to the UK. But I would ask you to consider this. We are right now prepared to risk a severe recession, trash our public finances for decades, and put our whole way of life on pause for months in order to protect the NHS. That is a measure of how valuable it is to us. So, given this, there is a need to radically re-assess its funding. That is surely one of the lessons here.
Absolutely wrong we did not do it to protect the NHS, we did it to protect people and the only way to do that was to ensure the NHS wasn't overwhelmed.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
But there's no treaty agreement or voter approval for pooling of sovereign debt risk, especially not among the countries who would be landed with the bill. Yes, it's a crisis and I understand that but until this idea has been debated in national parliaments and put to voters it would be massively unfair to ram it through. It's not asking people to help "each other" either, it's certain nations asking others to stand behind bonds with their credit ratings.
A process which would take several months at least as you well know. We disagree - time to move on.
Remind us which of the advanced economies are not on virtual lockdown right now?
No doubt you want a snowplough on every street corner as well in case of a bad winter.
Yes, the point applies generally, not just to the UK. But I would ask you to consider this. We are right now prepared to risk a severe recession, trash our public finances for decades, and put our whole way of life on pause for months in order to protect the NHS. That is a measure of how valuable it is to us. So, given this, there is a need to radically re-assess its funding. That is surely one of the lessons here.
Don't be daft, we are doing what we are doing to protect lives, like every other country in the entire world. Don't try to parlay that into NHS worship.
That doesn't actually work in practice, though. Even model lefty social democracies are trashing their economies and abolishing personal freedoms as we speak.
So our penny-pinching is a true economy, rather than a false one.
But if I offer you the Tardis and the chance to have been running ICU capacity at 10 times current levels for the last 10 years? I think you will take that chance and the net result is to save us all a fortune. It's the same rationale as for making banks hold excess capital. Black swan insurance. Fixing the roof when the sun is shining. Saving for a rainy day. Many a mickle makes a mackle.
But we only get a pandemic of this sort once every 50-100 years, so that's a hell of a lot of spare capacity to run just on the off chance the worst happens. But I do agree that our pandemic-specific preparedness should have been higher - ideally, every household in the country should have a set of high-quality reusable masks, for instance.
If we had stockpiled ventilators, then it would have been a disease that doesn't attack the lungs....
A better plan would be to stockpile PPE, testing chemicals, automated lab testing systems and designs for various things that can be manufactured using rapid prototyping (CNC, 3D printing etc)
Oh, I quite agree - I was just thinking how amazing it would have been if the Government had had the ability to say to the country the moment it looked like Covid was about to hit, 'Right everyone, from today everyone must wear their masks in public places under penalty of law'. That would have blunted the hell out of the initial impact.
Because masks do what? Amazing to live in a country of something must be done mania? Not for me, prefer listening to the experts.
Modeling the Effectiveness of Respiratory Protective Devices in Reducing Influenza Outbreak.
Yan J1,2, Guha S2, Hariharan P2, Myers M2.
Abstract
Outbreaks of influenza represent an important health concern worldwide. In many cases, vaccines are only partially successful in reducing the infection rate, and respiratory protective devices (RPDs) are used as a complementary countermeasure. In devising a protection strategy against influenza for a given population, estimates of the level of protection afforded by different RPDs is valuable. In this article, a risk assessment model previously developed in general form was used to estimate the effectiveness of different types of protective equipment in reducing the rate of infection in an influenza outbreak. It was found that a 50% compliance in donning the device resulted in a significant (at least 50% prevalence and 20% cumulative incidence) reduction in risk for fitted and unfitted N95 respirators, high-filtration surgical masks, and both low-filtration and high-filtration pediatric masks. An 80% compliance rate essentially eliminated the influenza outbreak. The results of the present study, as well as the application of the model to related influenza scenarios, are potentially useful to public health officials in decisions involving resource allocation or education strategies.
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Edwina Currie Malcolm Rifkind Michael Dobbs (albeit a lord) Jeffery Archer Tim Renton Gillian Shepherd
I hate that style of 'obvious questions' or 'some will ask'. Why was it obvious, who would ask etc etc. As those replies showed there't not much to ask about this on that point.
Ah -- she would have made a good Only Connect time question for the quiz: Tory MPs who published fiction: Nadine, former pb-er Louise Bagshawe, Boris, and, erm, the fourth one. There must be a fourth. Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a popular history book that was panned by the critics (and it is quite dull imo). OK scrap the question unless there is or was a fourth fiction author.
Michael Green?
Green was a fictitious author rather than an author of fiction iirc. @TheScreamingEagles reminds us Iain Duncan Smith wrote a thriller.
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
I think you might be suffering from a form of denial. As horrible as these numbers are, they would be an order of magnitude higher by now without the lockdown.
Given that places with 4 or 5 times the excess icu capacity to us are still struggling looks to me that they were hosing money for no good reason as come the crunch they still weren't able to cope.
All this excess capacity needs to be payed for. Millions of people already just on the tipping point between managing and not managing. a couple of % extra tax would tip them over.
Most people who go on about an extra % for this and an extra % for that on tax I can't help noticing are the comfortably off where if it makes a difference at all they may buy couple of less bottles of wine a month. They generally don't fall into the I can make the money last by eating beans on toast the last few days of the month.
That is another thing highlighted by this crisis. That so many people - in work - are barely managing. So if you're right that the only way we can improve the NHS is by making such people even poorer then we will just have to make do without it. But I don't think you ARE right.
If, at the end of the crisis, EU countries have done significantly better at having ventilators available, then we can reasonably consider it was a mistake not to join in the joint procurement efforts. On the other hand, if they haven't, then it will be clear there was no mistake.
The die has been cast. We can work out who was right and who was wrong in about eight weeks.
You mean we can't argue and bitch about it now? Harumph.
You may argue and bitch about how we cannot argue and bitch about it now.
That doesn't actually work in practice, though. Even model lefty social democracies are trashing their economies and abolishing personal freedoms as we speak.
So our penny-pinching is a true economy, rather than a false one.
But if I offer you the Tardis and the chance to have been running ICU capacity at 10 times current levels for the last 10 years? I think you will take that chance and the net result is to save us all a fortune. It's the same rationale as for making banks hold excess capital. Black swan insurance. Fixing the roof when the sun is shining. Saving for a rainy day. Many a mickle makes a mackle.
But we only get a pandemic of this sort once every 50-100 years, so that's a hell of a lot of spare capacity to run just on the off chance the worst happens. But I do agree that our pandemic-specific preparedness should have been higher - ideally, every household in the country should have a set of high-quality reusable masks, for instance.
If we had stockpiled ventilators, then it would have been a disease that doesn't attack the lungs....
A better plan would be to stockpile PPE, testing chemicals, automated lab testing systems and designs for various things that can be manufactured using rapid prototyping (CNC, 3D printing etc)
Oh, I quite agree - I was just thinking how amazing it would have been if the Government had had the ability to say to the country the moment it looked like Covid was about to hit, 'Right everyone, from today everyone must wear their masks in public places under penalty of law'. That would have blunted the hell out of the initial impact.
Because masks do what? Amazing to live in a country of something must be done mania? Not for me, prefer listening to the experts.
Modeling the Effectiveness of Respiratory Protective Devices in Reducing Influenza Outbreak.
Yan J1,2, Guha S2, Hariharan P2, Myers M2.
Abstract
Outbreaks of influenza represent an important health concern worldwide. In many cases, vaccines are only partially successful in reducing the infection rate, and respiratory protective devices (RPDs) are used as a complementary countermeasure. In devising a protection strategy against influenza for a given population, estimates of the level of protection afforded by different RPDs is valuable. In this article, a risk assessment model previously developed in general form was used to estimate the effectiveness of different types of protective equipment in reducing the rate of infection in an influenza outbreak. It was found that a 50% compliance in donning the device resulted in a significant (at least 50% prevalence and 20% cumulative incidence) reduction in risk for fitted and unfitted N95 respirators, high-filtration surgical masks, and both low-filtration and high-filtration pediatric masks. An 80% compliance rate essentially eliminated the influenza outbreak. The results of the present study, as well as the application of the model to related influenza scenarios, are potentially useful to public health officials in decisions involving resource allocation or education strategies.
If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection. Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing. Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water. If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
I think you might be suffering from a form of denial. As horrible as these numbers are, they would be an order of magnitude higher by now without the lockdown.
I am just wondering how these people are being infected still, so long into a lockdown.
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
As mentioned several times, the latency period is long - most of Italy has been in lockdown for 2.5 weeks - so we have to be a little more patient to see if it is working.
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
I think you might be suffering from a form of denial. As horrible as these numbers are, they would be an order of magnitude higher by now without the lockdown.
I am just wondering how these people are being infected still, so long into a lockdown.
If someone in a household has it they are infectious for up to 14 days. If someone else in the household catches it on day 13 then they are then infectious for another 14 days. Rinse, repeat. Eventually, that stops, probably at around 21-24 days after a hard lockdown.
Hi All. Been feeling slightly under the weather since Sunday. Started off with a persistent sore throat (and associated tickly cough) which has subsided today. Other symptoms have included chest tightness, body aches, headache and nausea. Symptoms are mild but the body aches and general malaise feeling (never felt like this before) have increased today. Tummy also feels a little upset today. Do *not* have a fever or a dry cough. I am suspecting that I have the dreaded virus...
I know we don't see eye to eye much on here but hope you stay well and it passes quickly for you.
And I hope your M-i-L stayed in Sri Lanka
(note to @matthiasfromhamburg : referring to an independent country by a former colonial name, in this case "Ceylon" is *actually* offensive as opposed to being some manufactured insult)
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
I think you might be suffering from a form of denial. As horrible as these numbers are, they would be an order of magnitude higher by now without the lockdown.
I am just wondering how these people are being infected still, so long into a lockdown.
No lockdown prevents transmission 100% while there are a large number of infectious people and a large number of people without immunity. There will still be a certain amount of direct human-to-human transmission, as well as transmission via surfaces, etc.
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
I think you might be suffering from a form of denial. As horrible as these numbers are, they would be an order of magnitude higher by now without the lockdown.
I am just wondering how these people are being infected still, so long into a lockdown.
People live in groups, and there are limits to the lockdown (e.g. food shopping, essential workers). That's even before any rule-breaking.
As has been mentioned, 4,000 is a lot but Italy is a country of 60,000,000.
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
I think you might be suffering from a form of denial. As horrible as these numbers are, they would be an order of magnitude higher by now without the lockdown.
I am just wondering how these people are being infected still, so long into a lockdown.
If someone in a household has it they are infectious for up to 14 days. If someone else in the household catches it on day 13 then they are then infectious for another 14 days. Rinse, repeat. Eventually, that stops, probably at around 21-24 days after a hard lockdown.
So a week today the figures should be massively better
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
As mentioned several times, the latency period is long - most of Italy has been in lockdown for 2.5 weeks - so we have to be a little more patient to see if it is working.
PS Without the lockdown cases would be rising exponentially now, so it is clearly having an effect.
Moreover, to give a hint that things are getting better, in Lombardy they are expanding the people they are going to test and the governor of the region (who has been very pessimistic throughout) has said that he thinks the number of new cases is starting to fall.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
The issue is one of compulsion.
Spain is insisting that the German taxpayer does this rather than the German taxpayer volunteering
(and, for the record, I have been very critical of German politicians for their refusal to help Greece and - as I would expect - their refusal to help Spain financially)
The flattening looks like a trend but still a long way to go - this is unlikely to be over anytime soon.
On Monday Italy will be three weeks in lockdown. If the cases don't reduce dramtically next week does a lockdown work?
I think the evidence from China suggests it does. There is really no alternative beyond allowing many more to die.
I agree the China evidence does, but today over 4000 new cases, that is an incredible amout when everyone has been in lockdown for 17 days.
I think you might be suffering from a form of denial. As horrible as these numbers are, they would be an order of magnitude higher by now without the lockdown.
I am just wondering how these people are being infected still, so long into a lockdown.
If someone in a household has it they are infectious for up to 14 days. If someone else in the household catches it on day 13 then they are then infectious for another 14 days. Rinse, repeat. Eventually, that stops, probably at around 21-24 days after a hard lockdown.
So a week today the figures should be massively better
This is the first time in a while I've watched the press questions section. Are they all complete idiots? It's almost like they are rooting for the virus.
Is the relative proportion of the UK cases in London falling a little? Today it is 31.8% and London makes up about 15% of the population of the UK. Either the rest of the country is catching up and / or that infections are getting more spread? Doesn't seem like there are other very obvious hotspots anyway...
Just cruel for someone going to get something like 10%
They will all presumably do fairly sombre speeches without anything substantive: "Thanks to the party putting their trust in me. First challenge is coronavirus, supporting Government where appropriate but asking searching questions. Longer term, we need to present a compelling alternative to damaging Tory Government. Let's come together as a party and look to the future. My name's [insert name here], you've been a lovely audience, good night". Bulked out a little, but that's basically it.
It's not like Starmer or Nandy will be using it to announce a purge of the old regime, or Long-Bailey a renewed assault on the moderates. They may lead in that way ultimately, but aren't putting it in the first speech.
This is the first time in a while I've watched the press questions section. Are they all complete idiots? It's almost like they are rooting for the virus.
This is the first time in a while I've watched the press questions section. Are they all complete idiots? It's almost like they are rooting for the virus.
Yes, they are complete idiots.
Can we all chip in and get a PB journalist to ask question for us?
This is the first time in a while I've watched the press questions section. Are they all complete idiots? It's almost like they are rooting for the virus.
Quite why anyone thinks we should have added an extra layer of EU bureaucracy and EU politics into our urgent sourcing of more ventilators is a mystery to me.
I think you are right. Indeed the leaders' conference call yesterday has also gone very badly with the blocking of the Coronabond idea and some unpleasant comments from the Dutch about Spain. All a bit unedifying sadly.
The article I saw (which I think you linked?) had the Dutch opposing mutualised debt.
His criticism was that Spain should have run a budget surplus during the last 10 years and so it would have been able to afford it itself.
A little callous, perhaps, but not really "unpleasant". Frankly the whole "coronabond" idea strikes me as the people who have always wanted mutualised debt trying to avoid a good crisis going to waste.
Were there more comments that I missed?
Callous is a word often used instead of unpleasant - In the current climate in Spain I'd happily use both.
So do you think that Coronabonds should be introduced? Rather than - say - a bilateral loan?
I live in Europe - I think the EU should show solidarity with all member states, especially when some are in exceptional difficulties, including Spain, Italy and France. Not to do so represents a collective failure.
But we literally just had the debt crisis which in part was caused risk effectively being pooled when it wasn't in fact.
?
The debt crisis was caused by periphery bonds being rated the same risk as Germany, when they weren't. Those countries used the German credit card and went crazy with it, then we got the sovereign debt crisis. While I completely understand nations needing to kick start their economies in a couple of months (the UK included) it's not fair on the German taxpayer that they should pay for Italian or Spanish fiscal stimulus without having a say on how their money will be spent by getting a vote in Spain or Italy.
The EU will always try and use more Europe as the solution, maybe it is here, maybe it's for nations to get out of the straight jacket that is the Euro. The issue is that what we have now with the leaders of one nation asking for citizens of another to write them a blank cheque is completely wrong.
The current crisis is very different. It is about the potential for countries facing total collapse of their healthcare systems. Given what all countries are doing nationally in terms of 'blank cheques' I simply disagree with you. If the EU means anything and to me it does as I live here now is absolutely the time for the rich to write some blank cheques.
Yes and we've been having a discussion here as to who pays for all of this once it's over. Imagine having the ability to outsource responsibility for that to some other nation's tax payers. Hard choices are coming for every country, simply pushing that on someone else is morally wrong.
The UK chose toleave the EU - the rest have not. The obligations are different. Of course the whole thing may break up. I think it is unlikely. Your point about it being 'morally wrong' for people in a supra-national club to help each other is total bullshit.
The issue is one of compulsion.
Spain is insisting that the German taxpayer does this rather than the German taxpayer volunteering
(and, for the record, I have been very critical of German politicians for their refusal to help Greece and - as I would expect - their refusal to help Spain financially)
Why? There is nothing in any of the EU treaties on sovereign debt risk pooling. The choice for Greece was to leave the Euro or accept the conditions of the bail out. Ultimately they chose to stay in the Euro and had to live with the consequences.
Why should the Germans, Dutch, Austrians etc... be forced into standing behind debt they didn't write for money that they have no oversight in spending?
Comments
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-tracker-how-many-cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258
Active cases 62414 (+4401 net increase)
including 3732 (+120) in UCI
Deaths: 9134 (+919 * considering the 50 cases from Piemonte added last night in yesterday's count)
Healed: 10950 (+589)
Total new cases: 5959
The book is notable for its uniformly negative reception, such that, as of May 2019, a paperback edition was never published.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Devil's_Tune
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/07/business/gm-lordstown-plant.html
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1243578437140447235
A better plan would be to stockpile PPE, testing chemicals, automated lab testing systems and designs for various things that can be manufactured using rapid prototyping (CNC, 3D printing etc)
From the Oxford study which explored the potential limits, it would require only one in a thousand infectees to need hospitalisation.
In Lombardy as we speak, nearly one in a thousand of the entire population are hospitalised right now. Add to that the number recovered and the number dead and the arithmetic doesn't seem to work at all, especially as herd immunity would kick in to slow infections well before 100% are infected. Probably at about 50%-60% infected.
It would be great to believe it, and it was at the limits of plausibility when it was suggested (which is why it was suggested - that this was the absolute upper limit), but it's not something we should pile our hopes onto.
"Not to be pedantic" was intended to signal that I was aware of the fact that there might be an aspect of pedantry in my point, but that there was nevertheless valid substance beyond that.
Whether you give a damn about other peoples' sensibilities/sensitivities is, of course, your own choice.
Edit: And, yes, of course, I have the Deutschlandlied playing in the background, on an endless loop, while hacking the keyboard, relentlessly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R15GyZyM4l4
Far too political
A chinese lockdown =/= a european country lockdown
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30229968
Modeling the Effectiveness of Respiratory Protective Devices in Reducing Influenza Outbreak.
Yan J1,2, Guha S2, Hariharan P2, Myers M2.
Abstract
Outbreaks of influenza represent an important health concern worldwide. In many cases, vaccines are only partially successful in reducing the infection rate, and respiratory protective devices (RPDs) are used as a complementary countermeasure. In devising a protection strategy against influenza for a given population, estimates of the level of protection afforded by different RPDs is valuable. In this article, a risk assessment model previously developed in general form was used to estimate the effectiveness of different types of protective equipment in reducing the rate of infection in an influenza outbreak. It was found that a 50% compliance in donning the device resulted in a significant (at least 50% prevalence and 20% cumulative incidence) reduction in risk for fitted and unfitted N95 respirators, high-filtration surgical masks, and both low-filtration and high-filtration pediatric masks. An 80% compliance rate essentially eliminated the influenza outbreak. The results of the present study, as well as the application of the model to related influenza scenarios, are potentially useful to public health officials in decisions involving resource allocation or education strategies.
© 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.
Malcolm Rifkind
Michael Dobbs (albeit a lord)
Jeffery Archer
Tim Renton
Gillian Shepherd
If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks
(note to @matthiasfromhamburg : referring to an independent country by a former colonial name, in this case "Ceylon" is *actually* offensive as opposed to being some manufactured insult)
As has been mentioned, 4,000 is a lot but Italy is a country of 60,000,000.
Moreover, to give a hint that things are getting better, in Lombardy they are expanding the people they are going to test and the governor of the region (who has been very pessimistic throughout) has said that he thinks the number of new cases is starting to fall.
Spain is insisting that the German taxpayer does this rather than the German taxpayer volunteering
(and, for the record, I have been very critical of German politicians for their refusal to help Greece and - as I would expect - their refusal to help Spain financially)
It's not like Starmer or Nandy will be using it to announce a purge of the old regime, or Long-Bailey a renewed assault on the moderates. They may lead in that way ultimately, but aren't putting it in the first speech.
Simply cannot ask constructive questions but rather looking for a gotcha moment
The media are rapidly becoming the bad guys in this
https://twitter.com/badiucao/status/1243483531247931392
Can we all chip in and get a PB journalist to ask question for us?
Why should the Germans, Dutch, Austrians etc... be forced into standing behind debt they didn't write for money that they have no oversight in spending?