Amazing - sounds like the Tories are admitting they got everything wrong for a decade. A Labour budget delivered by a Tory Chancellor. Strange days indeed!
This is a stunning budget. It will set the agenda for the Parliament, not the next year. How it is compatible with the fiscal rules is a complete mystery to me. There must be some major clawbacks somewhere.
Get used to Latin American budget-setting for the foreseeable future.
Well my trading strategy on this budget has clearly failed. Markets see nothing in this budget worth giving UK shares a boost. Meanwhile the Dow has tested 24000 yet again, and is now rebounding. You can’t win them all.
Sunak has just won Boris the next election. It's impossible for any opposition to make political headway against this type of budget - absolutely impossible.
It's four and a bit years until the next election. I think it's a bit early to start popping champagne corks.
TBH I think that most normal people would look at this budget and think "yeah". Unless they massively screw it up with Brexit stupidity - no mention so far about any cash to create the vast oceans of red tape infrastructure needed to leave the EEA and CU and every other agreement we currently benefit from...
Simply, you encourage people not to go out - to sporting events, bars, cinemas, restaraunts, theatres, concerts. To not travel on public transport, as far as possible. To work from home if they can. To avoid going shopping on a Saturday.
Basically, a whole bunch of measures that depress aggregate demand.
You might think so but my Amazon purchase history for the last 2 weeks indicates that these measures *increase* aggregate demand.
Also the Northern hemisphere summer is coming.....and the virus apparently cannot survive in hot weather?
It's been pretty warm in LA in the last couple of weeks (mid-20s), and we're seeing a reasonable number of cases. So while summer probably slows transmission (sufficient UV light kills viruses, and people spend more time outdoors), I don't think it stops it.
People go outdoors in LA? Don't they just boost the aircon?
Boris has the huge advantage over Gordon that he doesn't need to reassure middle-England that he's fiscally responsible. In fact it's been Boris's masterstroke that he's re-aligned their thought process into embracing lavishness.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict it won't be as bad in the UK and other NW European countries as it is in Italy.
Why? Because of the utterly misleading cherry picking that you're doing? Northern France has over 25 deaths, but you've excluded them from your fake news.
Amazing - sounds like the Tories are admitting they got everything wrong for a decade. A Labour budget delivered by a Tory Chancellor. Strange days indeed!
A bit like 1997 to 2001 when we had Tory budgets delivered by a Labour chancellor
This is a stunning budget. It will set the agenda for the Parliament, not the next year. How it is compatible with the fiscal rules is a complete mystery to me. There must be some major clawbacks somewhere.
Sounds like he’s serious about fiscal rules - not going to go above a 3% deficit throughout this parliament and to ensure headline debt is falling again by the end.
Any borrowing numbers or claims he says today are relatively meaningless.
Forthcoming budgets post-virus may be different.
True but the mood music is “I am not another Gordon Brown.”
He’s not going to be irresponsible with the public finances.
He's hardly going to come out and say that he's a grasshopper rather than an ant. Doesn't mean that he's telling the truth.
Gordon Brown was endlessly going on about prudence. A successor chancellor who has opened up the spigot is going to try to look responsible, even as he raids the earnings of future generations.
He was but he was constantly breaking his own rules.
Sunak is being very clear here that he isn’t going to do that.
God give me chastity, but not yet.
It’s an emergency budget. You said do yourself.
Gordon Brown made a habit of it with every budget from 2002 onwards.
I will be happy to revise my view in 2022-2023 if I’m wrong.
You have this naive idea that Rishi Sunak will still be Chancellor if he doesn't do what Boris Johnson wants. This is a government that will be spunking money all the way to the next election.
I get the impression they will be the type to react even to mid term blues or any dip in support despite inevitability. Oh well, hopefully it'll work out.
This is a stunning budget. It will set the agenda for the Parliament, not the next year. How it is compatible with the fiscal rules is a complete mystery to me. There must be some major clawbacks somewhere.
This is a stunning budget. It will set the agenda for the Parliament, not the next year. How it is compatible with the fiscal rules is a complete mystery to me. There must be some major clawbacks somewhere.
Get used to Latin American budget-setting for the foreseeable future.
It will take some time for this to shake out given the disruption of the virus. We probably won't know if this is sustainable until near the next election.
I wonder....I wonder...if you are in the EU, on digital goods you have to pay the VAT on the location of the individual not the seller...Outside of the EU, this rule is basically unenforceable, so at the moment if you are a small digital companies in the US you just don't bother complying.
I think we could see a load of "grey-market" sellers of digital goods setup as a UK company.
This is a stunning budget. It will set the agenda for the Parliament, not the next year. How it is compatible with the fiscal rules is a complete mystery to me. There must be some major clawbacks somewhere.
Not sending billions to the European Union.
Buttons. And never was the point. At least for me.
Very much looking forward to that one. I cannot imagine the Tories' local cllrs liking some of the more extreme suggestions, which basically cuts out their role outside of setting general principles.
What absolutely nobody is considering is that Corona might be contained quite quickly, and that the authorities will have conducted a massive stimulus program on what is fundamantally a pretty robust global economy.
Which wouldn;t make it a winter, but a blazing summer.
Coronavirus can be contained quite quickly, but at significant economic cost.
Simply, you encourage people not to go out - to sporting events, bars, cinemas, restaraunts, theatres, concerts. To not travel on public transport, as far as possible. To work from home if they can. To avoid going shopping on a Saturday.
Basically, a whole bunch of measures that depress aggregate demand.
You do this. And (congratulations!) Coronavirus cases drop to a few tens a day.
You then loosen up those restrictions... and Coronavirus comes roaring back. Because the way you stop it spreading by restricting human interaction (and economic activity).
And this is why all governments will end up choosing essentially the same strategy until a virus or cure is discovered: quarantine until case numbers decline markedly... loosen restrictions, and allow the case load to rise again... when it reaches a certain level... quarantine again.
This avoids health services getting overwhelmed. It minimises deaths. It's all good, except it's a bummer for the economy. Now, we can deal with this. The UK government (unlike the US one) is not running a big deficit. We implement measures to make sure that people don't lose their homes or their businesses over the period, and to encourage firms to keep staff on rather than letting them go. (And for the record, I think our government is doing a good job here.) But it still won't be much fun.
The biggest risk to sentiment is that people think the quarantine is intended to defeat the virus, whereas the truth is that an epidemic is expected as soon as the quarantine is lifted. Authorities simply hope that this epidemic will be more manageable than the one we would have had.
Folks who have spent a fortnight indoors watching Netflix aren’t prepared for the renewed epidemic that will follow their quarantine being lifted.
What, no, there's no *quarantine*. He's not talking about China. The word was "encourage". We still go to the shops, but we avoid crowds. We sometimes go out to eat, likewise. But we don't go to live events (loads of infections from one in Osaka) or gyms (OK, who am I kidding, I never did) and I only go to see the client in Tokyo if I really need to, instead of every week.
We seem to have got the thing under control (tentatively) by doing this, and the internet is full of wonders. Why would we stop?
PS. Quarantine is what the British will have after a few weeks of congratulating themselves about how much panicking they're not doing.
The UK will be facing an Italian style decision within a few weeks
Days / hours
Spain is shutting down slowly, individual organizations and local government postponing events, closing schools etc where there are hot spots. Madrid reacting more strongly, lots of discussion about who pays for the parents who can’t go to work as they are looking after children. Parliament already shut down for the week 2179 cases 49:deaths. Off to the hospital shortly expect it still to be functioning normally but impact an Alicante province at the moment only 20 cases.
Could there be something with air conditioning and Corona? You wouldn't think so, because air conditioned air is usually dry air. I'm just trying to find some cominality between outbreaks. Conferences, workplaces, hospitals and ocean liners seem good places to catch it. The tube somehow not. Hot countries are still getting it, but we hear it likes the cool.
Yes Sunak is opening up the spending taps but he isn;t at the same time trying to slaughter the private sector golden egg goose for ideological reasons.
The Dow is doing better than the FTSE. Not great, Rishi.
Why do you think that the stock market is any sort of indicator of the quality of a budget? FTSE100 companies get the majority of their earnings from overseas anyway. A UK budget is small beans at best compared to Covid-19.
Could there be something with air conditioning and Corona? You wouldn't think so, because air conditioned air is usually dry air. I'm just trying to find some cominality between outbreaks. Conferences, workplaces, hospitals and ocean liners seem good places to catch it. The tube somehow not. Hot countries are still getting it, but we hear it likes the cool.
Legionnaires disease is infamous for spreading via air-con systems.
Perhaps he's got a question about the closeness of Dover to Calais coming up.
But can HYUFD drop him off some broth.
The Dover to Calais comment was so innocuous, it seems so churlish to keep bringing it up. His comment was that he hadn't appreciated the "full" extent of its importance. So that is entirely consistent with initially thinking, before he got his Brexit role, it was maybe responsible for 75% of trade and it turned out to be 85%. Yet to the more ridiculous Remainers it became he didn't know Dover-Calais was the main route as Brexit Secretary.
I know it is a small thing, but it annoyed me at the time as we all say we hate it when politicians are overly scripted but then completely twist a perfectly reasonable comment out of what was actually said.
So there you have it. The only mentions of Brexit are that its "done". So no cash at all for border checks in the Irish Sea. Or a new army of customs and standards inspectors and paperwork processors as Govey keeps threatening. Its all bluster and the EU can now negotiate accordingly knowing that we will remain tied to the EEA.
Amazing - sounds like the Tories are admitting they got everything wrong for a decade. A Labour budget delivered by a Tory Chancellor. Strange days indeed!
People typically would argue that what was right then is not right now. It will even be true sometimes. But this certainly is a government and direction refreshed, fir better and worse.
If the chancellor thinks people will be happy with simply not going to work and receiving statutory sick-pay then he’s deluded. It’s nowt.
People should be guaranteed their full salary.
Paid for by whom ?
Afaik every company Ive worked for or managed has paid staff off sick in full for several weeks. I can see there needs to be a cut off point at which employers would struggle to pay full pay but it should be more like a month rather than 4 days. So employers for a month, then a mix of state and employer for another month, then state takes over with closer to a G20 average level of state sick pay would be my suggestion.
Very much looking forward to that one. I cannot imagine the Tories' local cllrs liking some of the more extreme suggestions, which basically cuts out their role outside of setting general principles.
Fairness will be important. More housing is needed and on a controlled basis. A town shouldn’t have to experience more than 1-2 major developments in a ten year period unless a designated new town. And building on flood plains is silly.
So there you have it. The only mentions of Brexit are that its "done". So no cash at all for border checks in the Irish Sea. Or a new army of customs and standards inspectors and paperwork processors as Govey keeps threatening. Its all bluster and the EU can now negotiate accordingly knowing that we will remain tied to the EEA.
Good!
Would such be announced in the budget prior to negotiations completing? They'd surely be announced in the autumn budget.
This budget is probably the most era-defining one I've seen in decades. Boris has ended politics - there's no other way of putting it.
That depends on what happens next. The Tories becoming Labour is going to concern at least a few Tories, I’d have thought. And then there’s delivery. Can we trust those who now concede they were totally wrong for a decade to be able to do what they say they will? We’ll see what happens. Huge risks are being taken.
Close your eyes and imagine that Corbyn actually won.
It's looking like the election to lose.
Reminds me so much of 1992, for obvious reasons, except that this crisis is likely to be 1000x worse.
No election is a good election to lose. Remember Labour congratulating themselves that 2010 was a good election to lose and that they’d be back very soon. 1992, led to Blair not Smith. Even in 1997 many Conservatives thought they’d be back soon.
Perhaps he's got a question about the closeness of Dover to Calais coming up.
But can HYUFD drop him off some broth.
The Dover to Calais comment was so innocuous, it seems so churlish to keep bringing it up. His comment was that he hadn't appreciated the "full" extent of its importance. So that is entirely consistent with initially thinking, before he got his Brexit role, it was maybe responsible for 75% of trade and it turned out to be 85%. Yet to the more ridiculous Remainers it became he didn't know Dover-Calais was the main route as Brexit Secretary.
I know it is a small thing, but it annoyed me at the time as we all say we hate it when politicians are overly scripted but then completely twist a perfectly reasonable comment out of what was actually said.
Well he should have appreciated the full extent of it before he backed Brexit/Leaving the single market & customs union.
If the chancellor thinks people will be happy with simply not going to work and receiving statutory sick-pay then he’s deluded. It’s nowt.
People should be guaranteed their full salary.
I thought he said he'd reimburse the cost to employers if their employees couldn't work for 14 days - so the way is open for employers to pay full pay and claim back from HMG.
If the chancellor thinks people will be happy with simply not going to work and receiving statutory sick-pay then he’s deluded. It’s nowt.
People should be guaranteed their full salary.
Paid for by whom ?
Afaik every company Ive worked for or managed has paid staff off sick in full for several weeks. I can see there needs to be a cut off point at which employers would struggle to pay full pay but it should be more like a month rather than 4 days. So employers for a month, then a mix of state and employer for another month, then state takes over with closer to a G20 average level of state sick pay would be my suggestion.
I’ve worked for companies who have paid zero sick pay and immediately go onto SSP.
If the chancellor thinks people will be happy with simply not going to work and receiving statutory sick-pay then he’s deluded. It’s nowt.
People should be guaranteed their full salary.
I thought he said he'd reimburse the cost to employers if their employees couldn't work for 14 days - so the way is open for employers to pay full pay and claim back from HMG.
This budget is probably the most era-defining one I've seen in decades. Boris has ended politics - there's no other way of putting it.
That depends on what happens next. The Tories becoming Labour is going to concern at least a few Tories, I’d have thought. And then there’s delivery. Can we trust those who now concede they were totally wrong for a decade to be able to do what they say they will? We’ll see what happens. Huge risks are being taken.
The argument is now whether to spend on R&D and infrastructure or fat cat pay rises and pensions for public sector workers or benefits for the idle as Brown implemented.
Might as well say, under any party, that people who have done poorly in previous years wont like what has happened even if it is brought to an end. Right or wrong as previous budgets may have been there would always have been people who suffered and not leap for joy.
This budget is probably the most era-defining one I've seen in decades. Boris has ended politics - there's no other way of putting it.
That depends on what happens next. The Tories becoming Labour is going to concern at least a few Tories, I’d have thought. And then there’s delivery. Can we trust those who now concede they were totally wrong for a decade to be able to do what they say they will? We’ll see what happens. Huge risks are being taken.
Yes, a fascinating day. A lot of stunned silences from the Tory benches at some of the key spending moments, but seemingly somewhat in awe of the chutzpah , rather than directly hostile. Ironically for the Brexiter government, this may move Britain closer to the European model exactly as it's leaving.
So there you have it. The only mentions of Brexit are that its "done". So no cash at all for border checks in the Irish Sea. Or a new army of customs and standards inspectors and paperwork processors as Govey keeps threatening. Its all bluster and the EU can now negotiate accordingly knowing that we will remain tied to the EEA.
Good!
Would such be announced in the budget prior to negotiations completing? They'd surely be announced in the autumn budget.
Problem is that according to HM Revenue and Customs they need 5 years to prepare for no deal. If they were going to throw emergency cash at getting ready then they'd need at least to provision for it now even if holding off pushing the button. Not a mention. Will be interesting to see what mention in the details...
If the chancellor thinks people will be happy with simply not going to work and receiving statutory sick-pay then he’s deluded. It’s nowt.
People should be guaranteed their full salary.
Paid for by whom ?
Afaik every company Ive worked for or managed has paid staff off sick in full for several weeks. I can see there needs to be a cut off point at which employers would struggle to pay full pay but it should be more like a month rather than 4 days. So employers for a month, then a mix of state and employer for another month, then state takes over with closer to a G20 average level of state sick pay would be my suggestion.
I’ve worked for companies who have paid zero sick pay and immediately go onto SSP.
Sure I have been fortunate in who I have worked for, but it can obviously be budgeted for and managed by companies. I have also found if you treat employees well you get far lower levels of absence than the national averages anyway, so it doesnt need to cost much.
Comments
I shall leave you all to watch admiringly whilst the PB Tories rub themselves against the furniture in tumescent ecstasy
And 1997 would have wiped out this majority, and some.
The only difference between then and now is that John Major's Government looked totally inept.
Oh wait ...
Big political picture, he looks and sounds like a PM.
If Boris resigns in office he wins by a walkover.
I think we could see a load of "grey-market" sellers of digital goods setup as a UK company.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KsK1ybDZ44
That's the difference between him and McDonnell.
Oh and I'm on Sunak at outstanding odds for both next tory leader and PM. So don't get me wrong. I can see it.
However, the coronavirus is coming. Normalcy Bias is being crushed by events, dear boy.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1237734451540561922
Worry about the national debt at times of growth like the last decade.
I know it is a small thing, but it annoyed me at the time as we all say we hate it when politicians are overly scripted but then completely twist a perfectly reasonable comment out of what was actually said.
Good!
A let rip unregulated approach will backfire.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1237727836355600387
Down to 9.8 on BF
I heard a bit about NI threshold being uplifted but nothing about Income Tax.
Deficit forecast does take account of everything Sunak announced.
But does not take account of lower output due to Coronavirus.
In fact, everything he announced isn't pushing the deficit up that much (as % of GDP which is what really matters).