Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden moves to 93% chance on Betfair after walloping Bernie in

1567911

Comments

  • Corbyn is so limited and is hopelessly out of his depth though I do accept it is difficult to respond to the budget statement

    Anyway I have stopped listening to him as he is just boring
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    matt said:

    IanB2 said:

    Close your eyes and imagine that Corbyn actually won.

    It's looking like the election to lose.

    Reminds me so much of 1992, for obvious reasons, except that this crisis is likely to be 1000x worse.
    No election is a good election to lose. Remember Labour congratulating themselves that 2010 was a good election to lose and that they’d be back very soon. 1992, led to Blair not Smith. Even in 1997 many Conservatives thought they’d be back soon.
    I shudder to think what would be happening if Corbyn and Milne were in charge of the virus response in this country.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Sanders has won North Dakota with the grand total of 7,682 votes. It sort of sums up his problems in a way. Doing well in the wrong places.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    eadric said:

    Sounds like he’s serious about fiscal rules - not going to go above a 3% deficit throughout this parliament and to ensure headline debt is falling again by the end.

    Any borrowing numbers or claims he says today are relatively meaningless.

    Forthcoming budgets post-virus may be different.
    True but the mood music is “I am not another Gordon Brown.”

    He’s not going to be irresponsible with the public finances.
    He's hardly going to come out and say that he's a grasshopper rather than an ant. Doesn't mean that he's telling the truth.

    Gordon Brown was endlessly going on about prudence. A successor chancellor who has opened up the spigot is going to try to look responsible, even as he raids the earnings of future generations.
    You're being rather optimistic here, Alastair. How do you know there will be "future generations"?
    Well, there are moments when an asteroid strike seems like it would be a blessed release, but I can't believe we'd be that lucky.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Andy_JS said:

    Sanders has won North Dakota with the grand total of 7,682 votes. It sort of sums up his problems in a way. Doing well in the wrong places.

    And the youthquake never comes, despite 10,000 kids turning up to listen to some band.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Very surprised but pleased by the axing of VAT on e-books.

    Less delighted by the Stonehenge tunnel going ahead.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Christ, this man wanted to be PM....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Forget all the detail.

    Big political picture, he looks and sounds like a PM.

    If Boris resigns in office he wins by a walkover.

    Are you trying to get him sacked? Dont let Boris see that comment.
    Just put a couple of pints on Sunack at 9.8. Previously I was on at 25.

    Obviously may be many years until pay day.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Very surprised but pleased by the axing of VAT on e-books.

    Less delighted by the Stonehenge tunnel going ahead.

    Don't worry, it's gone ahead many times before.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    matt said:

    IanB2 said:

    Close your eyes and imagine that Corbyn actually won.

    It's looking like the election to lose.

    Reminds me so much of 1992, for obvious reasons, except that this crisis is likely to be 1000x worse.
    No election is a good election to lose. Remember Labour congratulating themselves that 2010 was a good election to lose and that they’d be back very soon. 1992, led to Blair not Smith. Even in 1997 many Conservatives thought they’d be back soon.
    The 'kinder, gentler' lot were banging on about a 'soft landing' in late 2010, early 2011. How's that worked out for you?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    My inner geek is looking forward to going through this consultation paper:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/a-consultation-on-the-reform-to-retail-prices-index-rpi-methodology
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited March 2020

    Look out for fiscal drag in the full budget.

    I heard a bit about NI threshold being uplifted but nothing about Income Tax.

    It was already announced in the October statement that income tax thresholds are being frozen for 2020/21. This of course is payback for the big increase last year.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Sanders has won North Dakota with the grand total of 7,682 votes. It sort of sums up his problems in a way. Doing well in the wrong places.

    But also his interest as a candidate. He does well in places like Utah and North Dakota because he's a nineteenth century-style, religious-inspired American populist, not the sort of radical socialist many Americans believe him to be.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Look out for fiscal drag in the full budget.

    I heard a bit about NI threshold being uplifted but nothing about Income Tax.

    It was already announced in the October statement that income tax thresholds are being frozen for 2020/21. This of course is payback for the big increase last year.
    Yes, and maybe that will continue for some years?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Am I right in thinking there was not much in the budget to help people on zero-hours contracts who find they lose much of their income because of the Covid-19?
  • The camera just showed an empty bench behind and to the right of a Corbyn. Not a good look!

    At least he isn’t as shouty today
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Forget all the detail.

    Big political picture, he looks and sounds like a PM.

    If Boris resigns in office he wins by a walkover.

    Are you trying to get him sacked? Dont let Boris see that comment.
    Just put a couple of pints on Sunack at 9.8. Previously I was on at 25.

    Obviously may be many years until pay day.

    Eight years of Boris then a contest.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    TGOHF666 said:

    If the chancellor thinks people will be happy with simply not going to work and receiving statutory sick-pay then he’s deluded. It’s nowt.

    People should be guaranteed their full salary.

    Paid for by whom ?
    Afaik every company Ive worked for or managed has paid staff off sick in full for several weeks. I can see there needs to be a cut off point at which employers would struggle to pay full pay but it should be more like a month rather than 4 days. So employers for a month, then a mix of state and employer for another month, then state takes over with closer to a G20 average level of state sick pay would be my suggestion.
    I’ve worked for companies who have paid zero sick pay and immediately go onto SSP.
    Generally this is one of the main differences between "professional" jobs and "non-professional" ones. Suspect it's far more common than most PBers realise.

    I've had to live on SSP before and it isn't pleasant. These days I work for myself, so don't even get that! Won't someone think of the self-employed?! :disappointed:

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,442

    If the chancellor thinks people will be happy with simply not going to work and receiving statutory sick-pay then he’s deluded. It’s nowt.

    People should be guaranteed their full salary.

    I thought he said he'd reimburse the cost to employers if their employees couldn't work for 14 days - so the way is open for employers to pay full pay and claim back from HMG.
    Well that would be positive.
    I was wrong/the Guardian transcription was inexact. The detail from the Treasury is that it's Statutory Sick Pay only. And they've not increased the rate as they have in Ireland. It's derisory.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1237722228357283842
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    The looks on Boris's face are genuinely funny.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    My inner geek is looking forward to going through this consultation paper:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/a-consultation-on-the-reform-to-retail-prices-index-rpi-methodology

    Do you really care at this point, professionally speaking?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,910
    Judging by the many media types who are surprised at how much the government is spending, it does seem that the scale of the coronavirus problem still hasn't really sunk in.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,442

    Am I right in thinking there was not much in the budget to help people on zero-hours contracts who find they lose much of their income because of the Covid-19?

    I think they get to claim Universal Credit without a waiting period. Not sure.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Posting from a big Tesco in Newcastle. Absolutely no shortage of loo roll.

    And from the front line - bus in Central London. Not a mask in sight.

    Looks like it's over. So what Sunak is doing god only knows.
    I am on the tube and several masks here
    There was a guy in my local Marks and Sparks just now, in a face mask, and wearing those thin disposable gloves.

    It was me.
    Don’t you have enough bog roll already?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:

    My inner geek is looking forward to going through this consultation paper:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/a-consultation-on-the-reform-to-retail-prices-index-rpi-methodology

    Do you really care at this point, professionally speaking?
    On a public website, of course I still care. And actually I find this stuff interesting in its own right.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Am I right in thinking there was not much in the budget to help people on zero-hours contracts who find they lose much of their income because of the Covid-19?

    Efforts to make it easier to claim for Universal Credit and get immediate funding without having to go to the Jobcentre.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    glw said:

    Judging by the many media types who are surprised at how much the government is spending, it does seem that the scale of the coronavirus problem still hasn't really sunk in.

    What gives you that idea...I mean sending a journalist to the home of somebody with it, to try and get a comment....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Big jump in cases (no big jump in testing).

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237740175582801921?s=20
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Dow is doing better than the FTSE. Not great, Rishi.

    Why do you think that the stock market is any sort of indicator of the quality of a budget? FTSE100 companies get the majority of their earnings from overseas anyway. A UK budget is small beans at best compared to Covid-19.
    Hard to get a win - win here.

    Trump is pilloried for supporting the DOW over all else, such as Corona Virus, and that is reported as bad.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    eadric said:

    Quite a big jump.... but not the biggest ever.

    A large number of tests, which is good.
    23% up..compared to past 2 days of 17% increase.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    This government is going to leave a poisonous legacy
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I really hope the egg-heads don't decide that because the past 2-3 days the increases haven't been a total run-away that it will be another week of keep calm and wash your hands.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020

    eadric said:

    Quite a big jump.... but not the biggest ever.

    A large number of tests, which is good.
    23% up..compared to past 2 days of 17% increase.
    No new C-19 deaths in the UK so far today.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359

    A Star is born

    Rishi Sunak

    not everybody impressed
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    eadric said:

    Quite a big jump.... but not the biggest ever.

    A large number of tests, which is good.
    23% up..compared to past 2 days of 17% increase.
    No new C-19 deaths in the UK so far today.
    Unfortunately, it will only be a matter of time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TGOHF666 said:

    If the chancellor thinks people will be happy with simply not going to work and receiving statutory sick-pay then he’s deluded. It’s nowt.

    People should be guaranteed their full salary.

    Paid for by whom ?
    Afaik every company Ive worked for or managed has paid staff off sick in full for several weeks. I can see there needs to be a cut off point at which employers would struggle to pay full pay but it should be more like a month rather than 4 days. So employers for a month, then a mix of state and employer for another month, then state takes over with closer to a G20 average level of state sick pay would be my suggestion.
    I’ve worked for companies who have paid zero sick pay and immediately go onto SSP.
    Generally this is one of the main differences between "professional" jobs and "non-professional" ones. Suspect it's far more common than most PBers realise.

    I've had to live on SSP before and it isn't pleasant. These days I work for myself, so don't even get that! Won't someone think of the self-employed?! :disappointed:

    If you're self-employed then how much National Insurance do you pay?

    Given approximately 20% of an employees wages can go on National Insurance (when you combine Employers and Employees NI) even if the self-employed take a few weeks off they're surely still better off by not being employees?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    The SNP’s annus horriblis just got whiffier

    https://twitter.com/stvnews/status/1237739427876790273?s=21
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    I can’t quite work out who is more annoyed by the budget - the wets/Cameroons or the few remaining Labour supporters..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Big jump in cases (no big jump in testing).

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237740175582801921?s=20

    For those tracking the Italian numbers, at a comparable time in their outbreak they had 528 cases - and tomorrow would be on 650
  • malcolmg said:

    A Star is born

    Rishi Sunak

    not everybody impressed
    You could never impress everyone Malc

    But he has made a huge mark
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    This government is going to leave a poisonous legacy

    The ONLY legacy of this government will be its handling, or non handling, of coronavirus, and all that ensues therefrom.

    Surely that has sunk in by now? This is likely going to dwarf everything. It is a medical version of the GFC, but probably more serious.
    Politically, perhaps. Financially, and economically, you are obviously wrong.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TGOHF666 said:

    I can’t quite work out who is more annoyed by the budget - the wets/Cameroons or the few remaining Labour supporters..

    I don't see why Cameroons would be unhappy with this budget. The sun is not shining right now, its the time to have borrowing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Big jump in cases (no big jump in testing).

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237740175582801921?s=20

    For those tracking the Italian numbers, at a comparable time in their outbreak they had 528 cases - and tomorrow would be on 650
    Although that was based on a lot less tests and the rate of increase was running at 50% a day.

    Not saying we should be complacent, it is clear there is now widespread community transmission in the UK.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    I see Spain has issued advice against domestic and international travel - expected to become compulsory within the next fortnight. I suspect Semana Santa is about to be pretty well cancelled. Huge hit to tourism but may help limit the spread to the Costas so I am most relieved.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited March 2020
    After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    I can’t quite work out who is more annoyed by the budget - the wets/Cameroons or the few remaining Labour supporters..

    I don't see why Cameroons would be unhappy with this budget. The sun is not shining right now, its the time to have borrowing.
    Furious that Boris gets to do the spending...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    eadric said:

    My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.

    Not good.

    In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.

    So I assume all the wailing about austerity will now end?

    Thought not. :p
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    felix said:

    I see Spain has issued advice against domestic and international travel - expected to become compulsory within the next fortnight. I suspect Semana Santa is about to be pretty well cancelled. Huge hit to tourism but may help limit the spread to the Costas so I am most relieved.

    Thinking of setting up the costa home guard to turn the madrillaneans back at the edge of town.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    TGOHF666 said:

    I can’t quite work out who is more annoyed by the budget - the wets/Cameroons or the few remaining Labour supporters..

    I don't see why Cameroons would be unhappy with this budget. The sun is not shining right now, its the time to have borrowing.
    Haven’t we been borrowing since circa 2001?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    eadric said:

    My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.

    Not good.

    In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
    I suspect the Hancock statement at 7pm will usher in some new measures as we transition further to delay
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    eadric said:

    My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.

    Not good.

    In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
    But will have tested a lot.

    The longer we can push back the peak the better.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    TGOHF666 said:

    I can’t quite work out who is more annoyed by the budget - the wets/Cameroons or the few remaining Labour supporters..

    I don't see why Cameroons would be unhappy with this budget. The sun is not shining right now, its the time to have borrowing.
    Haven’t we been borrowing since circa 2001?
    Some years more than others.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.

    Really? What's being nationalised?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:


    Quite a big jump.... but not the biggest ever.

    19% daily growth rate of new cases over a 3 day period, compared to 33% daily for previous 3 days. Silver lining of a sort. Not sure it's enough.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2020

    Big jump in cases (no big jump in testing).

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237740175582801921?s=20

    For those tracking the Italian numbers, at a comparable time in their outbreak they had 528 cases - and tomorrow would be on 650
    Although that was based on a lot less tests and the rate of increase was running at 50% a day.

    Not saying we should be complacent, it is clear there is now widespread community transmission in the UK.
    When we start hitting 10k tests a day we're going to see big increases.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359

    A Star is born

    Rishi Sunak

    not everybody impressed
    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    It’s funny, you see the language used by critics of trans rights and it is eerily similar to that which was used by critics of gay rights a few decades ago.

    Won’t someone please think of the children.

    Looks completely different to me, depending upon what you mean by "trans rights"?

    If you mean people like women's rights activists including some notable names on this site the arguments look nothing like "please think of the children"
    The "trans people in women's changing rooms" chat is identical to "why Lesbians shouldn't be allowed in women's changing rooms" chat back in the day.

    It's word for word.
    That 'lesbians shouldn't be allowed in women's changing rooms' is a straw man if ever there was one. I never heard anyone express such an argument. Why? because lesbians are indistiguishable biologically from other women for a start.

    Trans people have penises in many cases, right?
    He is talking through a hole in his arse, just utter crap
    Last year the family of a lesbian had to sue to stop her being excluded at school

    https://www.laweekly.com/lesbian-in-the-locker-room/
    Yes but it is against the law and will be as rare as rocking horse shit , just allowing anybody with bollocks to say they are a woman and be able to roam anywhere is not acceptable. SNP clique running that show should be sacked including the half witted government minister pushing it.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    So the Tories said Labour would spunk money up the wall, Labour responded by saying they'd push austerity too much, the Tories then spunk money up the wall, and Labour double-down by saying they're not spunking enough money up the wall?

    Is there anything left for Labour to do?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    I see Spain has issued advice against domestic and international travel - expected to become compulsory within the next fortnight. I suspect Semana Santa is about to be pretty well cancelled. Huge hit to tourism but may help limit the spread to the Costas so I am most relieved.

    Thinking of setting up the costa home guard to turn the madrillaneans back at the edge of town.
    There's basically only 5/6 ways into Mojacar from the motorway - I fully expect those could be blcoked off by Guardia soon. :)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TGOHF666 said:

    I can’t quite work out who is more annoyed by the budget - the wets/Cameroons or the few remaining Labour supporters..

    I don't see why Cameroons would be unhappy with this budget. The sun is not shining right now, its the time to have borrowing.
    Haven’t we been borrowing since circa 2001?
    Indeed but the deficit was increased annually 2001-2010 which was unprecedentedly stupid and led to an unprecedented deficit.

    Deficit has been falling from 2010 to 2019 so we can now have borrowing go up this year.

    Its the economic cycle.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.

    No Labour would have spent the money on creating public sector non jobs and increasing benefits.

    You need to look beyond a Sky News level of analysis of “how much did he spend”
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    RobD said:

    After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.

    So I assume all the wailing about austerity will now end?

    Thought not. :p

    The Tories have admitted they were wrong. They've wasted 10 years.
  • felix said:

    I see Spain has issued advice against domestic and international travel - expected to become compulsory within the next fortnight. I suspect Semana Santa is about to be pretty well cancelled. Huge hit to tourism but may help limit the spread to the Costas so I am most relieved.

    If you do not mind could you explain Spains advice against domestic and international travel as I have not yet cancelled our trip to Vancouver in May, but will do and UK government advice will be key to our insurance
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2020
    For those interested in tracking the daily UK bubonic plague coronoavirus cases and numbers of tests, this looks a useful summary:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview?sle=true
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    Decent Budget.

    Idiots still in cabinet...
    https://twitter.com/dinah_ditch/status/1237728180980592640
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Nigelb said:

    Decent Budget.

    Idiots still in cabinet...
    https://twitter.com/dinah_ditch/status/1237728180980592640

    Not looking well at all? He coughed once.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    RobD said:

    After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.

    So I assume all the wailing about austerity will now end?

    Thought not. :p

    The Tories have admitted they were wrong. They've wasted 10 years.
    No they have not!

    What part of the economic cycle do you not comprehend?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    This government is going to leave a poisonous legacy

    The ONLY legacy of this government will be its handling, or non handling, of coronavirus, and all that ensues therefrom.

    Surely that has sunk in by now? This is likely going to dwarf everything. It is a medical version of the GFC, but probably more serious.
    Politically, perhaps. Financially, and economically, you are obviously wrong.
    We shall see. You do understand the coronavirus has massive financial and economic implications, as well as political and medical?

    I fail to see a likely event which could match it, for its across-the-board impact on British life, in all aspects - barring a very serious war.
    Fine but we are setting up the late 2020s for austerity: the sequel.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    Jesse Norman demonstrating that BBC experts just go for a headline theme rather than checking the numbers carefully.

    Borrowing not going up anything like as much as everybody thinks.
  • "Cancel everything now" is the advice. Hopefully Hancock will go at least some of the way down that path at 7pm tonight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228

    For those interested in tracking the daily UK bubonic plague coronoavirus cases and numbers of tests, this looks a useful summary:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview?sle=true

    Big jump in % of tests coming back positive over the last couple of days.
    Not encouraging.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.

    Not good.

    If our doubling of new cases time has increased from six to nine days, then that is not bad news.
    The number of tests each day fluctuates a lot, though, which makes it hard to be sure whether the trend is reliable - see the spreadsheet I've just posted.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    My inner geek is looking forward to going through this consultation paper:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/a-consultation-on-the-reform-to-retail-prices-index-rpi-methodology

    Do you really care at this point, professionally speaking?
    On a public website, of course I still care. And actually I find this stuff interesting in its own right.
    Fair enough. I had this picture of you gaily putting papers in the bin and deciding which of the 6 staplers you have accumulated you should take home. :smile:
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    RobD said:

    After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.

    So I assume all the wailing about austerity will now end?

    Thought not. :p

    The Tories have admitted they were wrong. They've wasted 10 years.
    No they have not!

    What part of the economic cycle do you not comprehend?

    Bless you!!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Nigelb said:

    For those interested in tracking the daily UK bubonic plague coronoavirus cases and numbers of tests, this looks a useful summary:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview?sle=true

    Big jump in % of tests coming back positive over the last couple of days.
    Not encouraging.
    Or better tracking?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    I see Spain has issued advice against domestic and international travel - expected to become compulsory within the next fortnight. I suspect Semana Santa is about to be pretty well cancelled. Huge hit to tourism but may help limit the spread to the Costas so I am most relieved.

    If you do not mind could you explain Spains advice against domestic and international travel as I have not yet cancelled our trip to Vancouver in May, but will do and UK government advice will be key to our insurance
    Sanchez is advising against any travel within Spain from affected areas or from outside countries affected by coronavirus. The expectation seems to be that quite soon the advice will become compulsory. Easter normally involves a lot internal and external movement to religious centres and the Costas. It seems likely that this year that could all be stopped. Spain has more cases in the centre and north but it's a huge country and apart from Barcelona much of the east and south coast as well as Galicia in the NW have very few cases. Curtailing big movements could potentially keep it that way.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    I pity the next Labour leader. How can he or she possibly compete with that? Outgunning the Tories on spending is now literally impossible. Will we see the bizarre spectacle of Labour fighting the next GE on a ticket of being the economically drier party? That would be a big risk for them, but I can't see where else they can go.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    This government is going to leave a poisonous legacy

    The ONLY legacy of this government will be its handling, or non handling, of coronavirus, and all that ensues therefrom.

    Surely that has sunk in by now? This is likely going to dwarf everything. It is a medical version of the GFC, but probably more serious.
    Politically, perhaps. Financially, and economically, you are obviously wrong.
    We shall see. You do understand the coronavirus has massive financial and economic implications, as well as political and medical?

    I fail to see a likely event which could match it, for its across-the-board impact on British life, in all aspects - barring a very serious war.
    Fine but we are setting up the late 2020s for austerity: the sequel.
    Maybe sooner than that. Its cyclical, we should run a surplus before we enter a recession.

    Thankfully austerity part one meant we entered this downturn with a current budget surplus even if not an actual budget surplus which is commendable considering what Brown bequeathed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,483

    Big jump in cases (no big jump in testing).

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237740175582801921?s=20

    This is not an important issue under the circumstances, but I would be grateful if they changed it to 'Sadly, six people have died.'
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,442

    TGOHF666 said:

    I can’t quite work out who is more annoyed by the budget - the wets/Cameroons or the few remaining Labour supporters..

    I don't see why Cameroons would be unhappy with this budget. The sun is not shining right now, its the time to have borrowing.
    Haven’t we been borrowing since circa 2001?
    Indeed but the deficit was increased annually 2001-2010 which was unprecedentedly stupid and led to an unprecedented deficit.

    Deficit has been falling from 2010 to 2019 so we can now have borrowing go up this year.

    Its the economic cycle.
    We never made it into a surplus in between because Osborne gave too much money away to his favoured client groups.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    Am I right in thinking there was not much in the budget to help people on zero-hours contracts who find they lose much of their income because of the Covid-19?

    Not unless they get sick, no. If they are sick they will get much faster access to benefits. They are likely to benefit indirectly from some of the small business helplines. For larger businesses I suspect that the BoE steps this morning will matter more.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    TGOHF666 said:

    If the chancellor thinks people will be happy with simply not going to work and receiving statutory sick-pay then he’s deluded. It’s nowt.

    People should be guaranteed their full salary.

    Paid for by whom ?
    Afaik every company Ive worked for or managed has paid staff off sick in full for several weeks. I can see there needs to be a cut off point at which employers would struggle to pay full pay but it should be more like a month rather than 4 days. So employers for a month, then a mix of state and employer for another month, then state takes over with closer to a G20 average level of state sick pay would be my suggestion.
    I’ve worked for companies who have paid zero sick pay and immediately go onto SSP.
    Generally this is one of the main differences between "professional" jobs and "non-professional" ones. Suspect it's far more common than most PBers realise.

    I've had to live on SSP before and it isn't pleasant. These days I work for myself, so don't even get that! Won't someone think of the self-employed?! :disappointed:

    If you're self-employed then how much National Insurance do you pay?

    Given approximately 20% of an employees wages can go on National Insurance (when you combine Employers and Employees NI) even if the self-employed take a few weeks off they're surely still better off by not being employees?
    https://www.gov.uk/self-employed-national-insurance-rates

    For myself I can't complain - not sure the direct comparison is all that useful since many self-employed people (including myself) would be on quite a different pay rate in regular employment anyway. Besides which, before going self-employed I made sure I had savings and investments that I could live on if things didn't work out. My comment was partly intended in humour, as the emoji was intended to convey...

    But putting a more serious hat on, the point of this emergency SSP rule was to introduce an additional measure to stop infected people turning up to work when they should be staying at home. And regardless of any built-in advantages you might deem them to enjoy, I can't see that a corresponding additional measure has been brought in for gig economy or self-employed workers. I suspect it wouldn't be an easy job to, actually, nor is it immediately obvious to me that such an intervention would be cost-effective. It's an interesting discrepancy though and I can see why some zero-hours or self-employed people might feel they're getting second-rate treatment here.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    Faisal Islam:

    "You now have deficits of 3%, 2%"

    Wow.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TGOHF666 said:

    The SNP’s annus horriblis just got whiffier

    https://twitter.com/stvnews/status/1237739427876790273?s=21

    Why would this be bad for the SNP?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Monkeys said:

    So the Tories said Labour would spunk money up the wall, Labour responded by saying they'd push austerity too much, the Tories then spunk money up the wall, and Labour double-down by saying they're not spunking enough money up the wall?

    Is there anything left for Labour to do?

    Continue self-isolating themselves from the voters....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    TGOHF666 said:

    eadric said:

    My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.

    Not good.

    In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
    But will have tested a lot.

    The longer we can push back the peak the better.
    It's an interesting anthropological study reading your unthoughtful posts daily.

    A few days back you were banging on in your usual nasty little way about "people being bored of the Shanghai Sniffle, they should get out and enjoy themselves".

    Now it's about moving the peak back.

    I wonder what you are like in real life – surely not as unthinking and reactionary as you present on here?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My inner geek is looking forward to going through this consultation paper:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/a-consultation-on-the-reform-to-retail-prices-index-rpi-methodology

    Do you really care at this point, professionally speaking?
    On a public website, of course I still care. And actually I find this stuff interesting in its own right.
    Fair enough. I had this picture of you gaily putting papers in the bin and deciding which of the 6 staplers you have accumulated you should take home. :smile:
    That image is not so far from the truth. Though over 28 years I've accumulated far odder things than staplers. I've got a CD by an artist called Joe and I have absolutely no idea where that came from.

    24 working days left. Not that I'm counting or anything.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Nigelb said:

    For those interested in tracking the daily UK bubonic plague coronoavirus cases and numbers of tests, this looks a useful summary:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview?sle=true

    Big jump in % of tests coming back positive over the last couple of days.
    Not encouraging.
    Yes, it is clearly spreading, albeit so far at a relatively modest rate. That's not unexpected, of course. I suspect that those suggesting that Matt Hancock's 7pm statement will include more recommended (or even mandatory) restrictions are right. Coordinating these with today's budget measures to offer more assistance makes good sense, to be fair.
This discussion has been closed.