politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t

ydoethur

Ugh.

Andy_JS

Latest projection from ITN:

Con 361
Lab 198
LD 14

rcs1000

PaulM said:

rcs1000 said:

https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1205334335508959233/photo/1

Congratulations to Alastair Meeks on winning our bet. Let me know which charity you would like me to donate to.

To be fair, it had the four factors in spades:

1. Went LD on UNS
2. Voted significantly Remain
3. LDs had really good local election results
4. There was a Labour vote to squeeze

Outside Scotland, that's been a pretty good guide to LD successes and failures.

Brom

https://twitter.com/bbcemt/status/1205336010722365440?s=21

Richard_Tyndall

Grieve officially gone

humbugger

Richard_Tyndall said:

Grieve officially gone

Best result of the night.

rcs1000

Jamei said:

Labour hold Cambridge easily

The Labour Party has held on well in its student heavy heartlands. It's in the real world they're struggling.

Pulpstar

paulyork64 said:

RobD said:

tlg86 said:

Good God:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205336087465463808

lol

great result for my fantasy election XI

Mine too.

Time_to_Leave

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

More bitter than Jezza....

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1205262038945140736

Complete idiot, not sure if he posts on ukpolling but he just sets out to mislead and get lucky. Sucked a lot of fools in.

He had a rather nasty meltdown one night. The mask slipped, a bit like Jezza.

I’m enjoying some of the meltdowns. Tonight feels like a weight lifted off my shoulders. Don’t even care most of my bets lost!

The only disappointment is I put in all this work on this live data stuff, expecting it to be close and lots of betting opportunities.

It is brilliant work. Thank you for it. Something unexpected may yet turn up in it too.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Yvette Cooper back. At least there will be some adults in the room.

ozymandias

humbugger said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Grieve officially gone

Best result of the night.

Can this night get any better. 😄

Artist

Scottish Labour couldn't even beat a discarded anti semite with no official party support.

dr_spyn

A number of commentators had called Laura Pidcock a future leader of the Labour Party.

But she has lost her seat of Durham North West to the Conservatives.

In 2017, her majority was over 8,000.

But in 2019, the Tory candidate, Rochard Holden, won the vote by 1,144.

BBC

CarlottaVance

Gordon Brown's old seat....and an SNP candidate not supported by the party...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205337147076743168?s=20

tlg86

Cooper squeaks home.

HYUFD

Shrewsbury and Atcham Con hold

Richard_Tyndall

Dumfries stays blue. How many is that in Scotland now?

FrancisUrquhart

Brexit Party cost Tories beating Cooper.

Brom

Shame Cooper hung on

spudgfsh

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Yvette Cooper back. At least there will be some adults in the room.

not necessarily the same room and the room she's put in may be locked

RH1992

Sky new forecast 363-369 Tory, 193-199 Lab.

RobD

Brom said:

Shame Cooper hung on

Her partners in crime have been routed though.

speedy2

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Yvette Cooper back. At least there will be some adults in the room.

Until the next election where the Brexit party would not split the Conservative vote.

Pulpstar

Kirkcaldy SNP

FrancisUrquhart

Cooper lost 20% of the vote....

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1205336987982581760?s=20

Andy_JS

Broxtowe:

Con 26,602
Lab 21,271
Soubry 4,668
Grn 1,806
ED 432
Ind 321
Elvis 172

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000607

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Labour lose to the guy kicked out by the SNP in Kirkcaldy.

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

10 point swing...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205333589828808706?s=20

Favourite result so far, that one!

Philip_Thompson

rcs1000 said:

PaulM said:

rcs1000 said:

https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1205334335508959233/photo/1

Congratulations to Alastair Meeks on winning our bet. Let me know which charity you would like me to donate to.

To be fair, it had the four factors in spades:

1. Went LD on UNS
2. Voted significantly Remain
3. LDs had really good local election results
4. There was a Labour vote to squeeze

Outside Scotland, that's been a pretty good guide to LD successes and failures.

Errrr it may have gone LD on UNS when the LDs were up 10% and Tories down by that much . . . but surely on UNS in the night it wasn't LD?

As far as I can see UNS swing is below 1%

speedy2

Richard_Tyndall said:

Dumfries stays blue. How many is that in Scotland now?

They could hold up to 6.

Andy_JS

Yvette Cooper holds on by about 1,200.

DecrepiterJohnL

rcs1000 said:

PaulM said:

rcs1000 said:

https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1205334335508959233/photo/1

Congratulations to Alastair Meeks on winning our bet. Let me know which charity you would like me to donate to.

To be fair, it had the four factors in spades:

1. Went LD on UNS
2. Voted significantly Remain
3. LDs had really good local election results
4. There was a Labour vote to squeeze

Outside Scotland, that's been a pretty good guide to LD successes and failures.

On a human level I suppose we should feel sorry for Conservatives losing their seats even in a tide of bluewash. How rubbish must they be feeling?

RobD

speedy2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Dumfries stays blue. How many is that in Scotland now?

They could hold up to 6.

HYUFD

Dumfries and Galloway Con hold from SNP

numbertwelve

CON GAIN BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD

spudgfsh

speedy2 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Yvette Cooper back. At least there will be some adults in the room.

Until the next election where the Brexit party would not split the Conservative vote.

The next election will be in 4 or 5 years time. don't expect the Labour vote to be quite so depressed next time around

Pulpstar

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1205336987982581760?s=20

Layla will put her right

humbugger

Con gain Northfield.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Artist said:

Scottish Labour couldn't even beat a discarded anti semite with no official party support.

They couldn't beat a tambourine, they are utterly bloody useless.

Richard_Tyndall

Birmingham Northfield goes blue

Floater

numbertwelve said:

CON GAIN BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD

Nice

Labour forecast back below 200

dr_spyn

Sturgeon celebrates Jo Swinson's defeat.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1205335510618705921

Pulpstar

Northfield

HYUFD

Cons gain Birmingham Northfield

speedy2

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brexit Party cost Tories beating Cooper.

There are a lot of seats where the Conservatives just missed due to the Brexit party, it is a strong possibility that Labour could lose them in the near future.

Artist

Sturgeon seems strangely chipper on the night of a big Tory majority.

MikeL

RLB: Detailed analysis required!

LOL - looks pretty obvious to me.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Rayner holds on in Ashton, with a massively reduced majority apparently.

rcs1000

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

PaulM said:

rcs1000 said:

https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1205334335508959233/photo/1

Congratulations to Alastair Meeks on winning our bet. Let me know which charity you would like me to donate to.

To be fair, it had the four factors in spades:

1. Went LD on UNS
2. Voted significantly Remain
3. LDs had really good local election results
4. There was a Labour vote to squeeze

Outside Scotland, that's been a pretty good guide to LD successes and failures.

Errrr it may have gone LD on UNS when the LDs were up 10% and Tories down by that much . . . but surely on UNS in the night it wasn't LD?

As far as I can see UNS swing is below 1%

You're right. The LDs are up 4.4% in England, while the Conservatives are 1.9%, so it would not have gone LD on UNS.

alex_

Where do ICM go from here?

tlg86

ITV just showed the dust up in Hayes.

HYUFD

Beaconsfield Con hold, Grieve defeated

rpjs

Artist said:

Sturgeon seems strangely chipper on the night of a big Tory majority.

Her goal of Scottish independence has got a lot closer.

numbertwelve

Tezza on BBC

rcs1000

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

PaulM said:

rcs1000 said:

https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1205334335508959233/photo/1

Congratulations to Alastair Meeks on winning our bet. Let me know which charity you would like me to donate to.

To be fair, it had the four factors in spades:

1. Went LD on UNS
2. Voted significantly Remain
3. LDs had really good local election results
4. There was a Labour vote to squeeze

Outside Scotland, that's been a pretty good guide to LD successes and failures.

On a human level I suppose we should feel sorry for Conservatives losing their seats even in a tide of bluewash. How rubbish must they be feeling?

Or indeed, the former SNP MP for NE Fife.

CarlottaVance

Andy_JS said:

Yvette Cooper holds on by about 1,200.

Massive swing: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205337882208227328?s=20

nunu2

numbertwelve said:

CON GAIN BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD

What!

ozymandias

MikeL said:

RLB: Detailed analysis required!

LOL - looks pretty obvious to me.

RLB in trouble?

Artist

Labour surprisingly hold Warwick + Leamington

Fysics_Teacher

Brom said:

Shame Cooper hung on

Good night all: I think I can safely go to bed now without worrying about any nasty surprises when I wake up.

Andy_JS

Warwick & Leamington has stayed Labour.

Philip_Thompson

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1205336987982581760?s=20

Oh give over Layla! Quite right for Sturgeon to celebrate a win for her party.

If in an alternate world the LDs had swept the country and taken Uxbridge do you think for one second that Swinson wouldn't have celebrated?

RandallFlagg

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Artist said:

Scottish Labour couldn't even beat a discarded anti semite with no official party support.

They couldn't beat a tambourine, they are utterly bloody useless.

Leonard surely toast, right?

DecrepiterJohnL

Artist said:

Sturgeon seems strangely chipper on the night of a big Tory majority.

One step closer to an independent Scotland.

HYUFD

May on BBC now

Foxy

spudgfsh said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gabs3 said:

speedy2 said:

So who is going to be next LD leader?

Ed Davey is deputy.

Layla Moran more likely

I don't think so. Ed Davey is deputy so gets the post for now. Lets see how things go over the next months before deciding. There is no hurry and Davey is a strong performer.

Pity, I quite liked Jo, but she was a bit too inexperienced.

To be honest, it had to be Jo last time. I hate this fact but the Lib Dems had to vote for a female leader. Now it's been done (and Labour will have the same issue by the way) the next leader can be voted for on their merits and not just because of their gender.

I agree, but I also think that any LD associated with the Coalition* is going to struggle with Left wing voters. I am happy for Ed Davey to continue for some time so that we can judge the newcomers.

*Tim always kept his distance, and Ed is quite robust on what was achieved in Coalition. Jo was too apologetic about what was the best government since Blairs first term.

HYUFD

Warwick and Leamington Labour hold

FrancisUrquhart

Andy_JS said:

Warwick & Leamington has stayed Labour.

Bloody students....

humbugger

Ashfield goes blue.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

RandallFlagg said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Artist said:

Scottish Labour couldn't even beat a discarded anti semite with no official party support.

They couldn't beat a tambourine, they are utterly bloody useless.

Leonard surely toast, right?

He says he isn't going. I mean, who would replace him, look at the state of the SLab MSPs?

funkhauser

humbugger said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Grieve officially gone

Best result of the night.

I second that.

ydoethur

numbertwelve said:

Tezza on BBC

She is showing far more loyalty to Johnson than he ever did to her.

Brom

Got to love a Sinn Fein UUP recount in Fermanagh

Artist

humbugger said:

Ashfield goes blue.

Betting against independents has worked for me.

NeilVW

RH1992 said:

Sky new forecast 363-369 Tory, 193-199 Lab.

Looks like they needn’t have tweaked it in the first place. But how many marginals are to come?

DecrepiterJohnL

Fysics_Teacher said:

Brom said:

Shame Cooper hung on

Good night all: I think I can safely go to bed now without worrying about any nasty surprises when I wake up.

The result won't be a surprise, if that is what you mean. Nastiness can't be ruled out.

HYUFD

rpjs said:

Artist said:

Sturgeon seems strangely chipper on the night of a big Tory majority.

Her goal of Scottish independence has got a lot closer.

SNP still likely to get fewer MPs than 2015

rcs1000

Con hold Wimbledon by a whisker

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1205338739624620032?s=20
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205339678230163457?s=20

humbugger

Con gain Stoke Central.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Cherry back with a stonking majority in Ed SW

https://twitter.com/Edinburgh_CC/status/1205339587645718528

Pulpstar

I'm in a weirdly safe Tory seat now

Philip_Thompson

Andy_JS said:

Broxtowe:

Con 26,602
Lab 21,271
Soubry 4,668
Grn 1,806
ED 432
Ind 321
Elvis 172

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000607

Bye bye Soubry.

HYUFD

Lancaster and Fleetwood Labour hold, Cat Deeley back

numbertwelve

SDLP GAIN FOYLE

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205339602694922240?s=20

Richard_Tyndall

Richmond stays blue

HYUFD

numbertwelve said:

SDLP GAIN FOYLE

From Sinn Fein

HYUFD

Ashfield Con gain

humbugger

Boris the milkman helps Tories hold Pudsey.

nunu2

rcs1000 said:

Con hold Wimbledon by a whisker

That's big

RobD

All this tactical voting... for naught.

KentRising

Tories have at least THREE Scottish seats.

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1205338583416086528

NorthernPowerhouse

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Labour lose to the guy kicked out by the SNP in Kirkcaldy.

For betting purposes will that class as snp?

Andrew

Economist live forecast: "Our best guess is that they will win 362 seats … There is a 95% chance that it will win between 352 and 373 seats."

RobD

KentRising said:

Tories have at least THREE Scottish seats.

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1205338583416086528

What's the latest panda number?

HYUFD

Reading West Con hold

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

Lancaster and Fleetwood Labour hold, Cat Deeley back

Shame.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

NorthernPowerhouse said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Labour lose to the guy kicked out by the SNP in Kirkcaldy.

For betting purposes will that class as snp?

He was on the ballot as SNP, I believe they will pay out.