Anecdata from a full day's canvassing in Broxtowe, a classic E Mids Tory marginal which I used to represent (I'll be here all week). Nothing amazing but FWIW:
* Middle-class Labour holding up well, white working-class Labour shakier, with some genuinely liking Johnson ("he's got something to him that most politicians don't") as well as thinking he'll get Brexit done. Anti-Corbyn sentiment here and there but didn't seem a major factor here. * Some long-term middle-class Tory shakiness, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Boris ("I've voted Conservative all my life but I'm not voting for a buffoon", "I'm a one-nation Tory and I don't recognise them") * Enormous turnout of Labour canvassers - I've never seen anything like it throughout my time. 12 canvass teams of 4-5 people out this morning, 10 this afternoon and evening. * Anna Soubry respected and picking up some of the "plague on both houses" votes, but generally recognised as having no chance of winning. * Greens doing surprisingly well, picking up both Labour and Tory voters. One Tory told me he was going Green as "the sensible middle ground". (I swallowed hard and didn't explain that they're further left than Labour.) * Lots and lots of keen interest. 300 people at a hustings last night.
Tories favourites at the moment, but there are a lot of people still wavering.
>The variation in 2017 went from Labour up 2% in Qriously to Tories up 13% in BMG. ICM was at 12% for the Tories. Survation at 1% for the Tories. Was just as wild as this time really. Just we don't have Qriously polling this time to give ridiculous pro-Labour results.
I recall on polling day some showed a 10 point lead, were there any higher than that? So 15 is far out but perhaps not as far out as we think at first glance.
One can compare some polls on a like for like basis.
Opinium 15% compared to 7% Yougov 9% compared to 4% Survation 9% compared to 1% Ipsos Mori 12% compared to 5%.
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.
That is too harsh I feel. CHB is enthusiastic and prepared to admit mistakes. They obviously want a particular outcome from this election, but so do all of us, even if they are different outcomes.
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.
That is too harsh I feel. CHB is enthusiastic and prepared to admit mistakes. They obviously want a particular outcome from this election, but so do all of us, even if they are different outcomes.
Unfortunately my optimum outcome seems pretty well unattainable right now.
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.
That is too harsh I feel. CHB is enthusiastic and prepared to admit mistakes. They obviously want a particular outcome from this election, but so do all of us, even if they are different outcomes.
Unfortunately my optimum outcome seems pretty well unattainable right now.
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.
That is too harsh I feel. CHB is enthusiastic and prepared to admit mistakes. They obviously want a particular outcome from this election, but so do all of us, even if they are different outcomes.
Unfortunately my optimum outcome seems pretty well unattainable right now.
And it was looking so good for PM Jo.
Not so bothered about who the PM is. What I want is Labour reduced to one seat - and that seat to be Uxbridge.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.
That is too harsh I feel. CHB is enthusiastic and prepared to admit mistakes. They obviously want a particular outcome from this election, but so do all of us, even if they are different outcomes.
Unfortunately my optimum outcome seems pretty well unattainable right now.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
It's a terrible thing, when no coalition is likely to provide stability. But it is the last gasp of Remain. That is its only positive. I don't worry about leaving, but its no longer my preference.
If we see tactical voting on a 1997 scale (which apparently was considerable), I can see this turning into a HP. Straws remain clutched!
A lot of tactical voting is probably already in the figures.
Where is that assumed? My point is the poll shows a majority of 14 at the moment, you can see how with tactical voting like in the example seats that have been posted tonight, that can drop to a Hung Parliament quickly.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
It's a terrible thing, when no coalition is likely to provide stability. But it is the last gasp of Remain. That is its only positive. I don't worry about leaving, but its no longer my preference.
Honestly a hung parliament is pretty much the worst outcome in my opinion. I’d rather have Corbyn with a majority nationalising everything that moves and whacking vast sums onto the national debt than another round of bad tempered, tedious parliamentary game playing. Please god anything but that.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
So we can go through all this again in a few months’ time, with the same almighty sh!t-show we’ve seen in the last few months happening all over again...?
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
It's a terrible thing, when no coalition is likely to provide stability. But it is the last gasp of Remain. That is its only positive. I don't worry about leaving, but its no longer my preference.
Honestly a hung parliament is pretty much the worst outcome in my opinion. I’d rather have Corbyn with a majority nationalising everything that moves and whacking vast sums onto the national debt than another round of bad tempered, tedious parliamentary game playing. Please god anything but that.
Why? A balanced parliament leads to a people’s vote and that enables voters to Get Brexit Down.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
It's a terrible thing, when no coalition is likely to provide stability. But it is the last gasp of Remain. That is its only positive. I don't worry about leaving, but its no longer my preference.
Honestly a hung parliament is pretty much the worst outcome in my opinion. I’d rather have Corbyn with a majority nationalising everything that moves and whacking vast sums onto the national debt than another round of bad tempered, tedious parliamentary game playing. Please god anything but that.
Hhhmmm a HP or Corbyn majority. That's a choice between the firing squad or the chopping block.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
So we can go through all this again in a few months’ time, with the same almighty sh!t-show we’ve seen in the last few months happening all over again...?
Well it’s better than East Enders or Corrie for entertainment value.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
It's a terrible thing, when no coalition is likely to provide stability. But it is the last gasp of Remain. That is its only positive. I don't worry about leaving, but its no longer my preference.
Honestly a hung parliament is pretty much the worst outcome in my opinion. I’d rather have Corbyn with a majority nationalising everything that moves and whacking vast sums onto the national debt than another round of bad tempered, tedious parliamentary game playing. Please god anything but that.
Why? A balanced parliament leads to a people’s vote and that enables voters to Get Brexit Down.
I am not Brenda from Bristol, but I actually genuinely believe that this country would really benefit from a stable period of 5 years where the government can govern.
I don’t really want us to be doing this all again in 6 months-2 years time.
That looks a poor poll for we are sweeping the North Tories 1% swing from Lab compared to GE2017
Southport was a LD seat until the last GE, the Tories now holding it with a 7% lead is pretty encouraging for them given Southport voted Remain and is thus not a typical Northern seat
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
These will be seats to watch for evidence of tactical voting.
OK LDs in Putney and Southport and LAB in Guilford you know what to do
Many LDs loathe Corbynite Labour with a passion, like OGH.
OGH implied he might tactically vote Labour in Bedford...
He did in the past. Emphatically not, this time around. I think the whole anti-semitism issue has badly tarnished Labour in the eyes of some people who would otherwise be willing to hold their noses, and tactically vote Labour.
These will be seats to watch for evidence of tactical voting.
OK LDs in Putney and Southport and LAB in Guilford you know what to do
Many LDs loathe Corbynite Labour with a passion, like OGH.
OGH implied he might tactically vote Labour in Bedford...
He did in the past. Emphatically not, this time around. I think the whole anti-semitism issue has badly tarnished Labour in the eyes of some people who would otherwise be willing to hold their noses, and tactically vote Labour.
Every vote counts. Every election every seat start with zero votes cast and every seat can change hands. Former safe seats can be overturned or become marginals if that is what the local voters want.
If you want to elect a Lib Dem MP you don't need to change the electoral system. You just need more of your neighbours in your constituency to also vote Lib Dem than Tory or anyone else.
The first step to changing anything is to realise your own problems. The problem is not the electoral system the problem is people don't want to vote for your party.
Sadly some votes count for a lot more than others. As is blindingly obvious when you look at the results.
I vote in a seat, Bedford, where it almost always matters and is regarded as the top bellwether constituency of all 650 of them.. It makes you think very carefully. I've had my postal voting pack for a week and have decided to wait until next Thursday before making my choice.
I won't be backing the party whose leader is too scared to be interviewed by Andrew Neil
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
So we can go through all this again in a few months’ time, with the same almighty sh!t-show we’ve seen in the last few months happening all over again...?
Well it’s better than East Enders or Corrie for entertainment value.
I guess it’s entertainment when watched from afar, as I have been for most of this year. I’m not too sure most people living in the U.K. see it quite like that though.
I think that Electoral Calculus are wrong. There is no world in which an 8% lead on 40%+ does not produce a reasonable majority.
Electoral Calculus is a wonderful tool but struggles a little when we get too far from UNS - as seems to be the case now. We could end up with a much bigger Tory majority on these figures, or a HP.
A point to note about tactical voting though - it's not tactical voting per se which gets the extra swing, it's tactical voting over and above any tactical voting which happened last time. I think?
I think this is my first post of the campaign which is cheerfully clutching at straws rather than gloomily foretelling doom.
Guildford: I'm already on at a better price, but punters may wish to consider selling Independent (Ann Milton) @ 2 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market. DYOR etc etc, you'd lose 8 times your stake if she comes second.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
So we can go through all this again in a few months’ time, with the same almighty sh!t-show we’ve seen in the last few months happening all over again...?
Well it’s better than East Enders or Corrie for entertainment value.
I guess it’s entertainment when watched from afar, as I have been for most of this year. I’m not too sure most people living in the U.K. see it quite like that though.
I phrased that wrongly what I think I meant that although the last three years has brought paralysis it has also brought high drama and issues that require in depth thinking. I can’t stand the bulk of TV output as it strikes me as shallow and puerile. There again I’m not normal.
I wonder whether this class bias in the VAT rules will be fixed after we leave the EU? No VAT is levied on cake, the accompaniment of choice for an upper class tea, but VAT is levied on biscuits, which most of the general population will have on their tea.
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
The definition of One Nation is, err, governing for the whole nation.
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
Boris was a pro EU Mayor of London. He was also pro business. Now he's fuck them both. Tomorrow, who knows what he will be.
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
The definition of One Nation is, err, governing for the whole nation.
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
The definition of One Nation is, err, governing for the whole nation.
Funny then how all the supposed "One Nation" Tories are extreme Remainiacs who most certainly have never thought of governing for the Leaver majority...
These will be seats to watch for evidence of tactical voting.
OK LDs in Putney and Southport and LAB in Guilford you know what to do
Many LDs loathe Corbynite Labour with a passion, like OGH.
OGH implied he might tactically vote Labour in Bedford...
He did in the past. Emphatically not, this time around. I think the whole anti-semitism issue has badly tarnished Labour in the eyes of some people who would otherwise be willing to hold their noses, and tactically vote Labour.
Every vote counts. Every election every seat start with zero votes cast and every seat can change hands. Former safe seats can be overturned or become marginals if that is what the local voters want.
If you want to elect a Lib Dem MP you don't need to change the electoral system. You just need more of your neighbours in your constituency to also vote Lib Dem than Tory or anyone else.
The first step to changing anything is to realise your own problems. The problem is not the electoral system the problem is people don't want to vote for your party.
Sadly some votes count for a lot more than others. As is blindingly obvious when you look at the results.
I vote in a seat, Bedford, where it almost always matters and is regarded as the top bellwether constituency of all 650 of them.. It makes you think very carefully. I've had my postal voting pack for a week and have decided to wait until next Thursday before making my choice.
I won't be backing the party whose leader is too scared to be interviewed by Andrew Neil
He has previously said he will not back the anti semites either
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
The definition of One Nation is, err, governing for the whole nation.
The Nation voted Leave
The nation, hm ? The sainted and abstracted Nation now backs Remain by around 6%, if you take a roundabout median of the surveys conducted over the last two years.
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
The definition of One Nation is, err, governing for the whole nation.
The definition of One Nation is whatever the Tory leader at the time wants it to mean.
They’ve been reusing the label since Cameron because declaring yourself a Thatcherite became unfashionable...
These will be seats to watch for evidence of tactical voting.
OK LDs in Putney and Southport and LAB in Guilford you know what to do
Many LDs loathe Corbynite Labour with a passion, like OGH.
OGH implied he might tactically vote Labour in Bedford...
He did in the past. Emphatically not, this time around. I think the whole anti-semitism issue has badly tarnished Labour in the eyes of some people who would otherwise be willing to hold their noses, and tactically vote Labour.
Every vote counts. Every election every seat start with zero votes cast and every seat can change hands. Former safe seats can be overturned or become marginals if that is what the local voters want.
If you want to elect a Lib Dem MP you don't need to change the electoral system. You just need more of your neighbours in your constituency to also vote Lib Dem than Tory or anyone else.
The first step to changing anything is to realise your own problems. The problem is not the electoral system the problem is people don't want to vote for your party.
Sadly some votes count for a lot more than others. As is blindingly obvious when you look at the results.
I vote in a seat, Bedford, where it almost always matters and is regarded as the top bellwether constituency of all 650 of them.. It makes you think very carefully. I've had my postal voting pack for a week and have decided to wait until next Thursday before making my choice.
I won't be backing the party whose leader is too scared to be interviewed by Andrew Neil
He has previously said he will not back the anti semites either
I'm sure he has, and he can certainly clarify his thinking on here if he wants, but the clear implication of what he said is that he's undecided between the Lib Dems or a tactical Labour vote. He's not voting Conservative and I doubt he's going Green.
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
Boris was a pro EU Mayor of London. He was also pro business. Now he's fuck them both. Tomorrow, who knows what he will be.
Define 'business' if you will Peter.
There's a lot of difference between on the one hand Mr Singh the shopowner and Mr Smith the engineering company founder and on the other bailed out Megabank and tax avoiding Internet Corp.
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
The definition of One Nation is, err, governing for the whole nation.
The Nation voted Leave
The Leave 52% was highly fragmented, as we all know to our cost. But even it had spoken with a single voice, it still had no right to ignore the views of the 48% (which of course is no longer 48% but rather more than that.)
If by some mischance Corbyn emerges with a majority next week, even he would not ride roughshod over the wishes of the minority, and rightly so. We are one nation, whatever Leavers may wish to tell themselves and try to tell the rest of us.
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
Boris was a pro EU Mayor of London. He was also pro business. Now he's fuck them both. Tomorrow, who knows what he will be.
Define 'business' if you will Peter.
There's a lot of difference between on the one hand Mr Singh the shopowner and Mr Smith the engineering company founder and on the other bailed out Megabank and tax avoiding Internet Corp.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have very limited means so am having just a few fun small constituency bets. So far I am on Tories to gain exeter, perth and north perthshire and Edinburgh SW. I'll be sticking half a dozen more on as we approach polling day but Sunderland Central, Wansbeck and NW Durham tempt me
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
Boris was a pro EU Mayor of London. He was also pro business. Now he's fuck them both. Tomorrow, who knows what he will be.
Define 'business' if you will Peter.
There's a lot of difference between on the one hand Mr Singh the shopowner and Mr Smith the engineering company founder and on the other bailed out Megabank and tax avoiding Internet Corp.
Ask Boris, not me. He said it. I didn't.
But its what Big Media thinks of as 'business' which matters and that's not Mr Singh the shop owner or Mr Smith the engineering company founder.
There are millions upon millions of people who have experienced the businesses they work for being treated like shit by the establishment while the megabanks were bailed out and the internet corps paid sod all taxes.
So when Boris says 'fuck business' all those millions of people say "yes, fuck bailed out Megabank and fuck tax avoiding Internet Corp".
And there's plenty of Corbyn supporters who think likewise I suspect.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Why would anyone want a hung Parliament?
Suit me , would mean quicker Indyref2 rather than having to trounce Tories in court and wait
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
Boris was a pro EU Mayor of London. He was also pro business. Now he's fuck them both. Tomorrow, who knows what he will be.
Define 'business' if you will Peter.
There's a lot of difference between on the one hand Mr Singh the shopowner and Mr Smith the engineering company founder and on the other bailed out Megabank and tax avoiding Internet Corp.
Ask Boris, not me. He said it. I didn't.
But its what Big Media thinks of as 'business' which matters and that's not Mr Singh the shop owner or Mr Smith the engineering company founder.
There are millions upon millions of people who have experienced the businesses they work for being treated like shit by the establishment while the megabanks were bailed out and the internet corps paid sod all taxes.
So when Boris says 'fuck business' all those millions of people say "yes, fuck bailed out Megabank and fuck tax avoiding Internet Corp".
And there's plenty of Corbyn supporters who think likewise I suspect.
Whatever way you take it, I don't suppose he meant it. He just said it because he knew that's what his base wanted to hear. That's pretty much the way he operates.
Same with the EU. I don't think he's for it. I don't think he's against it. He just tells the mob what he thinks they want to hear.
Because the alternative is a government run by Johnson or Corbyn
An answer so screamingly self-evident, it beggars belief anyone could ask such an inane question.
Parliaments aren't there to entertain gawping amateur gamblers. They're there to run countries. Johnson and Corbyn can't be trusted to run to the toilet when they want a wee.
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
Boris is spending more on public services than Cameron and Osborne who the likes of TSE and Richard Navabi backed to the hilt.
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
Boris was a pro EU Mayor of London. He was also pro business. Now he's fuck them both. Tomorrow, who knows what he will be.
Define 'business' if you will Peter.
There's a lot of difference between on the one hand Mr Singh the shopowner and Mr Smith the engineering company founder and on the other bailed out Megabank and tax avoiding Internet Corp.
Ask Boris, not me. He said it. I didn't.
But its what Big Media thinks of as 'business' which matters and that's not Mr Singh the shop owner or Mr Smith the engineering company founder.
There are millions upon millions of people who have experienced the businesses they work for being treated like shit by the establishment while the megabanks were bailed out and the internet corps paid sod all taxes.
So when Boris says 'fuck business' all those millions of people say "yes, fuck bailed out Megabank and fuck tax avoiding Internet Corp".
And there's plenty of Corbyn supporters who think likewise I suspect.
Whatever way you take it, I don't suppose he meant it. He just said it because he knew that's what his base wanted to hear. That's pretty much the way he operates.
Same with the EU. I don't think he's for it. I don't think he's against it. He just tells the mob what he thinks they want to hear.
Certainly, Boris is for Boris.
Which means Boris is willing to use voters for his own ends.
But voters are also willing to use Boris for their own ends.
Comments
Will Lib Dems be prepared to vote tactically?
These will be seats to watch for evidence of tactical voting.
How can you possibly run a less inspiring campaign than old Strong’n’Stable?
Opinium 15% compared to 7%
Yougov 9% compared to 4%
Survation 9% compared to 1%
Ipsos Mori 12% compared to 5%.
The rest have changed their methodology.
If we see tactical voting on a 1997 scale (which apparently was considerable), I can see this turning into a HP. Straws remain clutched!
An 8% lead will give the Conservatives the sort of majority they had in 1979.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1203394120888262657
Southport, constituency voting intention:
CON: 43% (+4)
LAB: 35% (+2)
LDEM: 22% (-4)
via
@DeltapollUK
, 02 - 06 Dec
Chgs. w/ GE2017
That looks a poor poll for we are sweeping the North Tories 1% swing from Lab compared to GE2017
It's not over yet!
Last week it was out around 5pm . Still no sign of it.
I don’t really want us to be doing this all again in 6 months-2 years time.
Labour down 8% in Guildford though which is a narrow LD gain.
Seems Labour voters are willingly to tactically vote LD to beat the Tories but LD voters are less willing to tactically vote for Corbyn Labour
If only it wasnt for the Smithson letter!!
Boris is only not One Nation if your definition of One Nation is pro EU
A point to note about tactical voting though - it's not tactical voting per se which gets the extra swing, it's tactical voting over and above any tactical voting which happened last time. I think?
I think this is my first post of the campaign which is cheerfully clutching at straws rather than gloomily foretelling doom.
We'll see how populist Johnson really is.
They’ve been reusing the label since Cameron because declaring yourself a Thatcherite became unfashionable...
There's a lot of difference between on the one hand Mr Singh the shopowner and Mr Smith the engineering company founder and on the other bailed out Megabank and tax avoiding Internet Corp.
If by some mischance Corbyn emerges with a majority next week, even he would not ride roughshod over the wishes of the minority, and rightly so. We are one nation, whatever Leavers may wish to tell themselves and try to tell the rest of us.
NEW THREAD
• 2 Tory would be MPs have been suspended for antisemitism
•3 more Tory would be MPs are now under investigation for antisemitism
• 5 Tories in this GE have either been suspended or are under investigation for Antisemitism https://itv.com/news/2019-12-07/three-tory-candidates-face-party-probe-over-anti-semitism-allegations/
There are millions upon millions of people who have experienced the businesses they work for being treated like shit by the establishment while the megabanks were bailed out and the internet corps paid sod all taxes.
So when Boris says 'fuck business' all those millions of people say "yes, fuck bailed out Megabank and fuck tax avoiding Internet Corp".
And there's plenty of Corbyn supporters who think likewise I suspect.
Same with the EU. I don't think he's for it. I don't think he's against it. He just tells the mob what he thinks they want to hear.
An answer so screamingly self-evident, it beggars belief anyone could ask such an inane question.
Parliaments aren't there to entertain gawping amateur gamblers. They're there to run countries. Johnson and Corbyn can't be trusted to run to the toilet when they want a wee.
Which means Boris is willing to use voters for his own ends.
But voters are also willing to use Boris for their own ends.