If there are two ComRes polls with different methodologies that still doesn't make them corrupt.
Call it an outlier, that's absolutely fine. But don't attack the polling company themselves.
People from the Labour Party are always attacking YouGov because it's founder was a former Tory candidate and they have been showing consistent leads for the Tories that would lead them to winning a majority But YouGov was the only pollster to correctly predict the Corbyn surge in 2017.
Yeah and they're idiots. I've never attacked YouGov.
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
Well I'm genuinely terrified of Johnson if that's any help.
Corbyn won't win this election. The most he can reasonably achieve is a coalition which will regulate him to some extent and almost certainly keep us in the EU, which is an added sanity cushion.
Do you by any chance play Russian Roulette as a hobby ?
He does, but he only wins half of the time.
Who is 'he'?
There's a Golden Rule about not believing the poll you don't like.
Labour share is definitely firming, that's all I know. And the LibDems are doing very well in Remainia.
Squeaky bum time if you're a tory.
Ms Rose
You still confident about Calaire Wright in East Devon Mysticrose?
Now that is very interesting, and it's even before a very close debate.
The Chicken Bozo effect? Didn’t do Mrs M any favour to be running away.
Doubt it. Apart from anything else there's something weird going on with the dates. Fieldwork on the Panelbase that was published yesterday was actually completed after this Comres, and it gave results in line with recent trends.
Again, more data needed. If the rest of the polls do show a Labour upswing then it'll probably be down to the squeeze on the Lib Dems starting up again, rather than the Con vote declining because of what Boris Johnson has done, or for any other reason. But let's wait and see.
11% for the LibDems is as low as they have been for a long time.
Suspect it might vary significantly from constituency to constituency.
I still doubt their vote is holding up - improving indeed - in the target seats in Remainia if they are nationally crashing and burning. They are at about half of their vote at the start of the campaign. I know they are spending huge amounts in their targeted seats. There are going to be some serious issues raised about theiri spending on "non-constituency" ads where the only possible candidate is just one LibDem.
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
I wouldn't be attacking the polling company like you are doing.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
It's just sad to see hypocrisy yet again.
Where have I attacked the polling company? Now you're just inventing things. Every poll that has been released throughout the entire campaign you have nit picked to death when they have shown big Tory leads, scrambling for crumbs of comfort. You're on seriously thin ice accusing other people of being hypocrites.
I never attacked the polling companies, I never attacked the people that commissioned them.
You're making completely fabricated arguments to suit your originally wrong and unsustainable point.
I've said what I think will happen - but I have always said the polls don't agree with that.
Well I'm attacking Gina Miller because she's crafty enough and desperate enough to try a stunt like this to try and change the narrative. She will do and say ANYTHING to stop Brexit. So will you.
If this poll is correct, and Labour are surging due to a collapse in SNP support, that might actually be bad news for them. After all, SNP-Labour seat swaps are mathematically irrelevant unless Labour are close to a majority, but nine seats could fall to the Tories from the SNP on a uniform swing of 5%.
I personally think it very unlikely the SNP’s vote are collapsing to Corbyn. I think this may be a weighting anomaly.
However, we will see.
See other posts, but it is NOT the SNP collapsing. Unfortunately people are comparing polls that should not be compared.
If there are two ComRes polls with different methodologies that still doesn't make them corrupt.
Call it an outlier, that's absolutely fine. But don't attack the polling company themselves.
People from the Labour Party are always attacking YouGov because it's founder was a former Tory candidate and they have been showing consistent leads for the Tories that would lead them to winning a majority But YouGov was the only pollster to correctly predict the Corbyn surge in 2017.
Yeah, tory pollsters predicting tory win. Then the tories win. Doesn't that sound suspicious to you?
If this poll is correct, and Labour are surging due to a collapse in SNP support, that might actually be bad news for them. After all, SNP-Labour seat swaps are mathematically irrelevant unless Labour are close to a majority, but nine seats could fall to the Tories from the SNP on a uniform swing of 5%.
I personally think it very unlikely the SNP’s vote are collapsing to Corbyn. I think this may be a weighting anomaly.
However, we will see.
See other posts, but it is NOT the SNP collapsing. Unfortunately people are comparing polls that should not be compared.
Yes, from other posts it is in effect a weighting anomaly.
So basically it’s showing no change once method is allowed for?
Now that is very interesting, and it's even before a very close debate.
The Chicken Bozo effect? Didn’t do Mrs M any favour to be running away.
Doubt it. Apart from anything else there's something weird going on with the dates. Fieldwork on the Panelbase that was published yesterday was actually completed after this Comres, and it gave results in line with recent trends.
Again, more data needed. If the rest of the polls do show a Labour upswing then it'll probably be down to the squeeze on the Lib Dems starting up again, rather than the Con vote declining because of what Boris Johnson has done, or for any other reason. But let's wait and see.
11% for the LibDems is as low as they have been for a long time.
Suspect it might vary significantly from constituency to constituency.
I still doubt their vote is holding up - improving indeed - in the target seats in Remainia if they are nationally crashing and burning. They are at about half of their vote at the start of the campaign. I know they are spending huge amounts in their targeted seats. There are going to be some serious issues raised about theiri spending on "non-constituency" ads where the only possible candidate is just one LibDem.
Don’t forget the “Advance Together” “Party”, who seem to be running a totally negative campaign against six Tory incumbents in LD target seats, without mentioning their own “Party” except in 6pt type, run by people who were candidates and activists for the LDs at the last election.
If there are two ComRes polls with different methodologies that still doesn't make them corrupt.
Call it an outlier, that's absolutely fine. But don't attack the polling company themselves.
People from the Labour Party are always attacking YouGov because it's founder was a former Tory candidate and they have been showing consistent leads for the Tories that would lead them to winning a majority But YouGov was the only pollster to correctly predict the Corbyn surge in 2017.
Yeah, tory pollsters predicting tory win. Then the tories win. Doesn't that sound suspicious to you?
Diane Abbott polling PLC is no basis for judging other polling companies.
Gina Miller commissions poll. Poll shows a seriously unlikely 4% increase in Labour's percentage. Gina Miller then releases tweet saying 'look what happens with tactical voting - we can STOP Brexit'.
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
I wouldn't be attacking the polling company like you are doing.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
It's just sad to see hypocrisy yet again.
Where have I attacked the polling company? Now you're just inventing things. Every poll that has been released throughout the entire campaign you have nit picked to death when they have shown big Tory leads, scrambling for crumbs of comfort. You're on seriously thin ice accusing other people of being hypocrites.
I never attacked the polling companies, I never attacked the people that commissioned them.
You're making completely fabricated arguments to suit your originally wrong and unsustainable point.
I've said what I think will happen - but I have always said the polls don't agree with that.
Well I'm attacking Gina Miller because she's crafty enough and desperate enough to try a stunt like this to try and change the narrative. She will do and say ANYTHING to stop Brexit. So will you.
Let's see what ComRes say before jumping to any conclusions.
If you compare this poll to the previous ComRes one before the methodology change, it's a 1 point narrowing which seems far more likely to me.
This doesn't necessarily mean the either previous or present methodology was correct, however. The pollsters are grappling around in the dark about turnout.
If this poll is correct, and Labour are surging due to a collapse in SNP support, that might actually be bad news for them. After all, SNP-Labour seat swaps are mathematically irrelevant unless Labour are close to a majority, but nine seats could fall to the Tories from the SNP on a uniform swing of 5%.
I personally think it very unlikely the SNP’s vote are collapsing to Corbyn. I think this may be a weighting anomaly.
However, we will see.
See other posts, but it is NOT the SNP collapsing. Unfortunately people are comparing polls that should not be compared.
Yes, from other posts it is in effect a weighting anomaly.
So basically it’s showing no change once method is allowed for?
No idea. But the last Comres poll did things differently by giving respondents a chance to select independents in their seat. This had the effect of increasing Others from 1% to 5%.
Mr Johnson’s words during a Channel 4 News report also caused much debate after the broadcaster posted a video on Twitter with subtitles indicating he said “people of colour” while talking about the party’s immigration policy.
Channel 4 later deleted the post and apologised for “a mistake” where they “misheard” the PM who allegedly actually said “people of talent.”
allegedly eh?
Oh dear imagine Boris having to actually see a real person in public, he would have been wetting his pants.
Afternoon Malc. I have been following this election most of the time and it is clear he is meeting many real people and I am amazed how many seem to be genuinely enthused by him with lots of selfies.
It is clear that he is reaching parts you would not expect but how this plays out on thursday we will just have to wait and see
I have commented a few times that Nicola made a mistake in tying the 2nd referendum into the GE and todays poll showing 'No' up 5% and the possibility of some of the 13 conservatives holding their seats does seem to confirm that
The constituency poll from Berwick showing the conservatives at 60% would indicate their border seats should be safe
Hello G, not convinced by today's poll, hard to see them drop 5% in a few days with no obvious reason. Boris is an abomination and it shows what dire straits the UK is in when a lying charlatan like him is the PM. I still think we will see SNP in mid 40's seat wise and it will be bigger at Holyrood and for sure 2nd referendum.
I think that is fair but I am not convinced Scotland will vote yes in any referendum
G, when you look at the numbers it is only when, under 50's are overwhelmingly YES, the NO's are dying off and it is inevitable.
Gina Miller commissions poll. Poll shows a seriously unlikely 4% increase in Labour's percentage. Gina Miller then releases tweet saying 'look what happens with tactical voting - we can STOP Brexit'.
It is not Neil. There are other forces at work here if this poll is confirmed by others and not an outlier
Even better if the 'Neil effect' is still working through as a slow burn. Of course it's next to impossible to isolate contributory factors but certainly as I watched the takedown I felt I was watching something powerful and important. It was tear to the eye and lump in the throat stuff. You don't get that very often in a UK election. An American one, yes, but not here. They tend to be prosaic affairs.
BigG mentoned constituency polls at 7 - any other polls coming up tonight ?
I expect Yougov, Deltapoll, Opinium, maybe BMG and ORB.
Gosh. Fasten your safety belts. Those of a nervous disposition are advised to hide under a duvet until midnight and then ask a friend to break the news to them gently.
Gina Miller commissions poll. Poll shows a seriously unlikely 4% increase in Labour's percentage. Gina Miller then releases tweet saying 'look what happens with tactical voting - we can STOP Brexit'.
Corbynistas wet themselves silly.
Dear oh dear.
So Comres was a Gina Miller poll?
Her company commissioned it. I suspect the tactical voting section might be a bit dodgy but I've seen no evidence the ComRes poll itself is dodgy.
If this poll is correct, and Labour are surging due to a collapse in SNP support, that might actually be bad news for them. After all, SNP-Labour seat swaps are mathematically irrelevant unless Labour are close to a majority, but nine seats could fall to the Tories from the SNP on a uniform swing of 5%.
I personally think it very unlikely the SNP’s vote are collapsing to Corbyn. I think this may be a weighting anomaly.
However, we will see.
See other posts, but it is NOT the SNP collapsing. Unfortunately people are comparing polls that should not be compared.
Rampers on here just cannot grasp how popular the SNP are, it is just a case of how many seats they win by, the London parties will scrap for some crumbs.
Gina Miller commissions poll. Poll shows a seriously unlikely 4% increase in Labour's percentage. Gina Miller then releases tweet saying 'look what happens with tactical voting - we can STOP Brexit'.
I don't feel confident about what the result is going to be but I do think shortcomings in TV coverage have assisted Labour relative to the Tories and both of them relative to the LDs. I refer to the unrelenting emphasis on covering process and personalities at the expense of policies. A random example this morning was a Labour spokesperson being grilled for ten minutes on whether "Corbyn had changed the narrative during the debate" on BBC breakafast TV.
Both the Tories and Labour have gaping credibility issues in terms of delivering. In Labour's case they have a manifesto that taken as a whole is lunatic fringe. There been no detailed discussion though on TV! A lot of the electorate will discount generalised attacks so some of the resilience in the Labour vote is that the detail of their manifesto is still not getting properly scrutinised by mainstream commentators.
I also think the IFS commentary on the manifestos was either the result of cowardice (easier to condemn all parties as unrealistic than to grade them) or shockingly innumerate. Yes, the LDs and Tories have a degree of recklessness in their pledges but Labour are in another league. Its like comparing a slap in the face with getting your skull crushed by an iron bar.
Except the big risks are not in Labour's manifesto. Like it or not, like individual items or not, you can see what they are and decide accordingly. I'm not defending it, and it seems to me rather like an overstuffed Christmas pudding but it is what it is. You can read it and be repelled by the nationalisation of allotments or think the National Jam Service is well-intentioned but undeliverable.
The hidden dangers surely lurk in the Conservative manifesto. Get Brexit Done is written 23 times, yet nowhere does it estimate how much its flagship policy will cost, or alternatively how much it will raise. Hundreds of billions either way, according to previous governments. Then there are the dangers to the constitution with a naked power grab by the new world king at the expense of the courts and parliament itself.
With a bigger swing to the Tories in Northern, Midlands and Welsh seats still a Tory majority.
6% is roughly Cameron's lead when he won a majority in 2015
True. But with a lead like this PLUS the Remainer tactical vote getting its act together PLUS the BXP splitting the Leave vote in Labour WWC heartland seats - that could just spell Hung Parliament. You will admit that much.
It is not Neil. There are other forces at work here if this poll is confirmed by others and not an outlier
Even better if the 'Neil effect' is still working through as a slow burn. Of course it's next to impossible to isolate contributory factors but certainly as I watched the takedown I felt I was watching something powerful and important. It was tear to the eye and lump in the throat stuff. You don't get that very often in a UK election. An American one, yes, but not here. They tend to be prosaic affairs.
Let's have a think here, Comres old methodology was most favourable to Lab Vs Con iirc. So it makes sense to comission them if you wanted a poll to show the race tightening with their old methodology. Wouldn't make much sense to go for MORI
Gina Miller commissions poll. Poll shows a seriously unlikely 4% increase in Labour's percentage. Gina Miller then releases tweet saying 'look what happens with tactical voting - we can STOP Brexit'.
Corbynistas wet themselves silly.
Dear oh dear.
So Comres was a Gina Miller poll?
Yup! Hence everyone waiting for methodology and questions.
With a bigger swing to the Tories in Northern, Midlands and Welsh seats still a Tory majority.
6% is roughly Cameron's lead when he won a majority in 2015
True. But with a lead like this PLUS the Remainer tactical vote getting its act together PLUS the BXP splitting the Leave vote in Labour WWC heartland seats - that could just spell Hung Parliament. You will admit that much.
If all the stars align it could happen, but big if
Gina Miller commissions poll. Poll shows a seriously unlikely 4% increase in Labour's percentage. Gina Miller then releases tweet saying 'look what happens with tactical voting - we can STOP Brexit'.
Corbynistas wet themselves silly.
Dear oh dear.
So Comres was a Gina Miller poll?
Yes. By her group "remain United".
No doubt with leading questions so about the same value as a Momentum funded poll.
Let's have a think here, Comres old methodology was most favourable to Lab Vs Con iirc. So it makes sense to comission them if you wanted a poll to show the race tightening with their old methodology. Wouldn't make much sense to go for MORI
Interestingly even with the new methodology the Tory vote didnt decline
With a bigger swing to the Tories in Northern, Midlands and Welsh seats still a Tory majority.
6% is roughly Cameron's lead when he won a majority in 2015
True. But with a lead like this PLUS the Remainer tactical vote getting its act together PLUS the BXP splitting the Leave vote in Labour WWC heartland seats - that could just spell Hung Parliament. You will admit that much.
If all the stars align it could happen, but big if
Time to use your vast knowledge and insights, to soothe frayed nerves here. As mentioned earlier, ' Gret Brexit done' from an Etionian bufoon, seemed like a nice catch phrase. However was not a panacea for all ills, specially in the austerity ravaged Labour North.
>The Conservatives' lead has fallen back down to eight points over the last week, according to a poll which puts the party on course for a majority of 14.
If not already linked (but the story is timed 4 minutes ago)
“On Saturday the results of a separate Savanta ComRes survey, for Remain United, emerged which pointed to just a six point lead for the Conservatives. However it was begun two days before the separate survey for this newspaper, suggesting it may be more dated. Unlike the poll for The Sunday Telegraph, it did not quiz all respondents based on the candidates standing in their particular constituencies - a method known as a full ballot prompt”.
So what do we think? The dastardly Gina Miller deliberately commissioned a poll by a pollster favourable to the Enemies of the People, and craftily got them to change their methodology to create the illusion of a big drop in the Tory lead.
And still our Brilliant Leader outwitted her. The Great Patriotic Tory Vote didn't waver by an inch.
Plenty of polls/predictions were wrong in 1992, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019. They may well be wrong this time round too. Which way ? Who knows. I've gone looking for bets away from implied tight con lab majority marginals recently. There might be some value in long odds Tory AND Labour bets though ?
I don't feel confident about what the result is going to be but I do think shortcomings in TV coverage have assisted Labour relative to the Tories and both of them relative to the LDs. I refer to the unrelenting emphasis on covering process and personalities at the expense of policies. A random example this morning was a Labour spokesperson being grilled for ten minutes on whether "Corbyn had changed the narrative during the debate" on BBC breakafast TV.
Both the Tories and Labour have gaping credibility issues in terms of delivering. In Labour's case they have a manifesto that taken as a whole is lunatic fringe. There been no detailed discussion though on TV! A lot of the electorate will discount generalised attacks so some of the resilience in the Labour vote is that the detail of their manifesto is still not getting properly scrutinised by mainstream commentators.
I also think the IFS commentary on the manifestos was either the result of cowardice (easier to condemn all parties as unrealistic than to grade them) or shockingly innumerate. Yes, the LDs and Tories have a degree of recklessness in their pledges but Labour are in another league. Its like comparing a slap in the face with getting your skull crushed by an iron bar.
Except the big risks are not in Labour's manifesto. Like it or not, like individual items or not, you can see what they are and decide accordingly. I'm not defending it, and it seems to me rather like an overstuffed Christmas pudding but it is what it is. You can read it and be repelled by the nationalisation of allotments or think the National Jam Service is well-intentioned but undeliverable.
The hidden dangers surely lurk in the Conservative manifesto. Get Brexit Done is written 23 times, yet nowhere does it estimate how much its flagship policy will cost, or alternatively how much it will raise. Hundreds of billions either way, according to previous governments. Then there are the dangers to the constitution with a naked power grab by the new world king at the expense of the courts and parliament itself.
I believe that any serious attempt to implement the LP manifesto would be a disaster, whether tragedy or farce I don't know. I'm pro remain so agree with your points on Brexit but I also believe that any abandonment of Brexit needs a second referendum with a plausible Leave option (so Tory not the Labour chimera) and we would need to pray for a decisive vote to stop very ugly political currents festering. My main objections to Corbyn lie with ideological rigidity that has lead him into very dark places and the growth of disturbing views held by a minority within the LP. I don't like the prospect of Tory government so you can see that I'm not full of optimism for the short term. Despite some stupid policies I'm voting LD to put a marker for the future.
If not already linked (but the story is timed 4 minutes ago)
“On Saturday the results of a separate Savanta ComRes survey, for Remain United, emerged which pointed to just a six point lead for the Conservatives. However it was begun two days before the separate survey for this newspaper, suggesting it may be more dated. Unlike the poll for The Sunday Telegraph, it did not quiz all respondents based on the candidates standing in their particular constituencies - a method known as a full ballot prompt”.
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
I wouldn't be attacking the polling company like you are doing.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
It's just sad to see hypocrisy yet again.
Where have I attacked the polling company? Now you're just inventing things. Every poll that has been released throughout the entire campaign you have nit picked to death when they have shown big Tory leads, scrambling for crumbs of comfort. You're on seriously thin ice accusing other people of being hypocrites.
I never attacked the polling companies, I never attacked the people that commissioned them.
You're making completely fabricated arguments to suit your originally wrong and unsustainable point.
I've said what I think will happen - but I have always said the polls don't agree with that.
Well I'm attacking Gina Miller because she's crafty enough and desperate enough to try a stunt like this to try and change the narrative. She will do and say ANYTHING to stop Brexit. So will you.
"The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.
In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."
So what do we think? The dastardly Gina Miller deliberately commissioned a poll by a pollster favourable to the Enemies of the People, and craftily got them to change their methodology to create the illusion of a big drop in the Tory lead.
And still out Brilliant Leader outwitted her. The Great Patriotic Tory Vote didn't waver by an inch.
Onwards to Victory!
To be honest, it would need Comres to be in on it to have changed their methodology on their regular poll.
And actually, I think it's good for the Tories if there is a narrative of the polls tightening.
"The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.
In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."
Interesting.
IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
"The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.
In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."
Interesting.
IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain.
If not already linked (but the story is timed 4 minutes ago)
“On Saturday the results of a separate Savanta ComRes survey, for Remain United, emerged which pointed to just a six point lead for the Conservatives. However it was begun two days before the separate survey for this newspaper, suggesting it may be more dated. Unlike the poll for The Sunday Telegraph, it did not quiz all respondents based on the candidates standing in their particular constituencies - a method known as a full ballot prompt”.
Hmmmm.
So others back up to 6??????
I just think it reads like a line the Telegraph has been given. Will be interesting to see how the pollster itself describes the Miller poll.
So what do we think? The dastardly Gina Miller deliberately commissioned a poll by a pollster favourable to the Enemies of the People, and craftily got them to change their methodology to create the illusion of a big drop in the Tory lead.
And still out Brilliant Leader outwitted her. The Great Patriotic Tory Vote didn't waver by an inch.
Onwards to Victory!
To be honest, it would need Comres to be in on it to have changed their methodology on their regular poll.
And actually, I think it's good for the Tories if there is a narrative of the polls tightening.
Wait - so Gina Miller is a double agent, working for Boris?
Interestingly they weight for new voter registrations amongst the normal measures used . What I find strange , if the country going by polls for the last 18 months has edged towards Remain then using the 2016 EU ref would surely effect the results .
So what do we think? The dastardly Gina Miller deliberately commissioned a poll by a pollster favourable to the Enemies of the People, and craftily got them to change their methodology to create the illusion of a big drop in the Tory lead.
And still out Brilliant Leader outwitted her. The Great Patriotic Tory Vote didn't waver by an inch.
Onwards to Victory!
To be honest, it would need Comres to be in on it to have changed their methodology on their regular poll.
And actually, I think it's good for the Tories if there is a narrative of the polls tightening.
Wait - so Gina Miller is a double agent, working for Boris?
Our Heroine!
Well she's done more for Leave than just about anyone...
Comments
So basically it’s showing no change once method is allowed for?
Corbynistas wet themselves silly.
Dear oh dear.
MORI 2-4 Dec: Con +12
ComRes 2-5 Dec: Con +6
So we have both Panelbase more recent showing Con lead up 1 and also a wide variation from MORI on almost identical dates.
And in addition, I really want to see the official ComRes release.
We really need to see what ComRes say.
The hidden dangers surely lurk in the Conservative manifesto. Get Brexit Done is written 23 times, yet nowhere does it estimate how much its flagship policy will cost, or alternatively how much it will raise. Hundreds of billions either way, according to previous governments. Then there are the dangers to the constitution with a naked power grab by the new world king at the expense of the courts and parliament itself.
Never change, PB. Never change...
Wouldn't make much sense to go for MORI
As mentioned earlier, ' Gret Brexit done' from an Etionian bufoon, seemed like a nice catch phrase. However was not a panacea for all ills, specially in the austerity ravaged Labour North.
If not already linked (but the story is timed 4 minutes ago)
It's squeaky bum time!
Tories:41
Labour: 33
Hmmmm.
Lab 33
So what do we think? The dastardly Gina Miller deliberately commissioned a poll by a pollster favourable to the Enemies of the People, and craftily got them to change their methodology to create the illusion of a big drop in the Tory lead.
And still our Brilliant Leader outwitted her. The Great Patriotic Tory Vote didn't waver by an inch.
Onwards to Victory!
Which way ?
Who knows. I've gone looking for bets away from implied tight con lab majority marginals recently.
There might be some value in long odds Tory AND Labour bets though ?
Con -1
Lab +1
Lead cut from 10 to 8.
I think Remain United poll can largely be discounted.
That headline figure could hide a utterly inefficient Con vote.
But yes, fair to say I think it's an outlier - but a 14 seat majority isn't a lot to work with.
"The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.
In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."
Interesting.
And actually, I think it's good for the Tories if there is a narrative of the polls tightening.
Am I doing it right?
Our Heroine!
Con +7
Con +10
Con +10
Con +8