Note to clear up the confusion re: today's @SavantaComRes polling, one showing Con +8, and one Con +6:
Con +8 published by a newspaper (FW: 04 - 05 Dec); Con +6 published by 'Remain United' (FW: 02 - 05 Dec).
The one published by Remain United did not prompt candidates.
I think the main point of interest this evening - if we get another poll with a lead of 6 or less - is seeing how quickly people can think up excuses to dismiss it, and how rampant the panic gets in the meantime.
I hadn't realised that Sir Tony Robinson alias Baldrick had quit the Labour Party after 45 years membership
During my recent two weeks off due to illness I watched a lot of old Time Teams: his enthusiasm in those is great. It always looks like he is really enjoying it. Presumably he quit for the same reason so many others have.
"The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.
In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."
Interesting.
IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
11% swing to take it. 61% leave in 2016. Outside shot, it falls on a 12% national lead I think
I'm expecting the swing to the Conservatives to be well above average in County Durham.
Sunderland isn't in County Durham.
It pretty much is. Just a small town in Co. Durham in fact. Tyne and Wear does not exist in any real capacity anymore.
I know, bloody Thatcher. I grew up in Heaton. But Sunderland still isn't in Co Durham.
It's not under the auspices of Durham County Council, certainly. Or Durham police. But I'm still comfortable with saying Sunderland is in County Durham just as I'd have no qualms about saying Wigan is in Lancashire or Solihull in Warwickshire. Names of counties can be used to describe traditional 'terroirs' as well as precise administrative areas - just as 'summer' can be used to mean the meteorological or astronomical term, or British Summer Time, or any time the weather is vaguely pleasant.
As you enter Blackburn, you are welcomed to 'Blackburn - a Lancashire Town' - despite the fact it now sits outwith Lancashire County Council. As a slogan it smacks of 'they told us we needed a slogan but we really couldn't be bothered', but it shows you where the town is at emotionally.
What about Jarrow and Gateshead? They used to be part of Co Durham too. Where I live now used to be part of Surrey. But I sure as hell don't live in fucking Surrey. Anyway, whatevs, if you think of Sunderland as part of Co Durham that's fine.
So methodology question, why would candidate prompt make such a large difference?
Reminds waverers that they don't have to personally vote for Boris Johnson as PM?
I fail to understand how anyone can vote Tory or labour neither offer a positive sane view for the future or have any credibility with their leaders or top teams
So methodology question, why would candidate prompt make such a large difference?
Reminds waverers that they don't have to personally vote for Boris Johnson as PM?
I fail to understand how anyone can vote Tory or labour neither offer a positive sane view for the future or have any credibility with their leaders or top teams
Same applies to the Lib Dems as shown in the polls.
I have very limited means so am having just a few fun small constituency bets. So far I am on Tories to gain exeter, perth and north perthshire and Edinburgh SW. I'll be sticking half a dozen more on as we approach polling day but Sunderland Central, Wansbeck and NW Durham tempt me
You should have done Sunderland when you tipped it. Bit shorter now.
41-33 would be a comfortable majority. What’s the score?
Only if you are comfortable modelling how the Brexit vote falls.
That headline figure could hide a utterly inefficient Con vote.
Isn't Yougov MRP the most likely indicator of that ?
Yes, the thing that made them so accurate in 2017 was near flawless modelling of what happened to the UKIP vote.
The tory vote is very efficient simply because they are cleaning up the Leave vote.
I suspect the Tory vote is becoming less efficient as they will be piling up huge majorities in leave voting bits of their English heartlands and also doing a lot better in Labour's leave voting heartlands but only converting some of them into victories. They will also have more second places in Scotland. Piling up votes in safe Tory seats will be helped by the exit of BXP from Tory held seats. Labour by contrast will be piling up less votes in their Northern heartlands although they may be piling up more votes in safe seats in inner city seats.
There are quite a few heavily Leave voting, Labour marginals.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have very limited means so am having just a few fun small constituency bets. So far I am on Tories to gain exeter, perth and north perthshire and Edinburgh SW. I'll be sticking half a dozen more on as we approach polling day but Sunderland Central, Wansbeck and NW Durham tempt me
Some would say you are betting on your hoped for outcomes rather than predictions
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have very limited means so am having just a few fun small constituency bets. So far I am on Tories to gain exeter, perth and north perthshire and Edinburgh SW. I'll be sticking half a dozen more on as we approach polling day but Sunderland Central, Wansbeck and NW Durham tempt me
Some would say you are betting on your hoped for outcomes rather than predictions
I have very limited means so am having just a few fun small constituency bets. So far I am on Tories to gain exeter, perth and north perthshire and Edinburgh SW. I'll be sticking half a dozen more on as we approach polling day but Sunderland Central, Wansbeck and NW Durham tempt me
You should have done Sunderland when you tipped it. Bit shorter now.
Yeah but I play for fun mostly now as I cant afford to bet serious money so it's more the satisfaction of tipping, betting little amounts and self satisfaction if they come off
I never trust a poll selectively published by a pressure group. What's to stop the pressure group from commissioning 20 simulatenously polls, picking the one with the result they like and then releasing it?
So methodology question, why would candidate prompt make such a large difference?
Reminds waverers that they don't have to personally vote for Boris Johnson as PM?
I fail to understand how anyone can vote Tory or labour neither offer a positive sane view for the future or have any credibility with their leaders or top teams
So methodology question, why would candidate prompt make such a large difference?
Reminds waverers that they don't have to personally vote for Boris Johnson as PM?
I fail to understand how anyone can vote Tory or labour neither offer a positive sane view for the future or have any credibility with their leaders or top teams
Same applies to the Lib Dems as shown in the polls.
Was referring to what’s on offer not the polls anyone who votes for corbyn or Johnson should be ashamed of themselves.
I never trust a poll selectively published by a pressure group. What's to stop the pressure group from commissioning 20 simulatenously polls, picking the one with the result they like and then releasing it?
I thought the LDs were a legitimate political party? Oh...
Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.
Seven British (English? - not sure about McTominay) players in United's starting line-up too. After three decades of antipathy to Utd, I'm starting to actually rather enjoy it when they win.
I think every Liverpool fan is thinking the same thing about just this game
Just need someone to take some points off the Foxes and we can rest players more in the League.
I never trust a poll selectively published by a pressure group. What's to stop the pressure group from commissioning 20 simulatenously polls, picking the one with the result they like and then releasing it?
41-33 would be a comfortable majority. What’s the score?
Only if you are comfortable modelling how the Brexit vote falls.
That headline figure could hide a utterly inefficient Con vote.
Isn't Yougov MRP the most likely indicator of that ?
Yes, the thing that made them so accurate in 2017 was near flawless modelling of what happened to the UKIP vote.
The tory vote is very efficient simply because they are cleaning up the Leave vote.
I suspect the Tory vote is becoming less efficient as they will be piling up huge majorities in leave voting bits of their English heartlands and also doing a lot better in Labour's leave voting heartlands but only converting some of them into victories. They will also have more second places in Scotland. Piling up votes in safe Tory seats will be helped by the exit of BXP from Tory held seats. Labour by contrast will be piling up less votes in their Northern heartlands although they may be piling up more votes in safe seats in inner city seats.
There are quite a few heavily Leave voting, Labour marginals.
That is true. But you can tell that the Tory vote will be less efficient overall by the fact that most seat projections suggest that a 6pp Tory lead would still produce a hung parliament, despite a material Con-Lab swing. I would say about half of that is due to BXP not standing in Tory seats, which gave the Tories an extra 3pp but probably almost no extra seats.
I never trust a poll selectively published by a pressure group. What's to stop the pressure group from commissioning 20 simulatenously polls, picking the one with the result they like and then releasing it?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have very limited means so am having just a few fun small constituency bets. So far I am on Tories to gain exeter, perth and north perthshire and Edinburgh SW. I'll be sticking half a dozen more on as we approach polling day but Sunderland Central, Wansbeck and NW Durham tempt me
Some would say you are betting on your hoped for outcomes rather than predictions
Theres an aspect of that yes, when you're only having a quid or two then looking at who you'd like to lose and betting on the ones you think have the best chance of coming off forms a part of it. Like Cooper, I'd love to see her lose but I'm not tempted. Pidcock is a goner imo but Cooper hangs on......
I hadn't realised that Sir Tony Robinson alias Baldrick had quit the Labour Party after 45 years membership
During my recent two weeks off due to illness I watched a lot of old Time Teams: his enthusiasm in those is great. It always looks like he is really enjoying it. Presumably he quit for the same reason so many others have.
I never trust a poll selectively published by a pressure group. What's to stop the pressure group from commissioning 20 simulatenously polls, picking the one with the result they like and then releasing it?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
Anecdata from a full day's canvassing in Broxtowe, a classic E Mids Tory marginal which I used to represent (I'll be here all week). Nothing amazing but FWIW:
* Middle-class Labour holding up well, white working-class Labour shakier, with some genuinely liking Johnson ("he's got something to him that most politicians don't") as well as thinking he'll get Brexit done. Anti-Corbyn sentiment here and there but didn't seem a major factor here. * Some long-term middle-class Tory shakiness, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Boris ("I've voted Conservative all my life but I'm not voting for a buffoon", "I'm a one-nation Tory and I don't recognise them") * Enormous turnout of Labour canvassers - I've never seen anything like it throughout my time. 12 canvass teams of 4-5 people out this morning, 10 this afternoon and evening. * Anna Soubry respected and picking up some of the "plague on both houses" votes, but generally recognised as having no chance of winning. * Greens doing surprisingly well, picking up both Labour and Tory voters. One Tory told me he was going Green as "the sensible middle ground". (I swallowed hard and didn't explain that they're further left than Labour.) * Lots and lots of keen interest. 300 people at a hustings last night.
Tories favourites at the moment, but there are a lot of people still wavering.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have very limited means so am having just a few fun small constituency bets. So far I am on Tories to gain exeter, perth and north perthshire and Edinburgh SW. I'll be sticking half a dozen more on as we approach polling day but Sunderland Central, Wansbeck and NW Durham tempt me
Some would say you are betting on your hoped for outcomes rather than predictions
Theres an aspect of that yes, when you're only having a quid or two then looking at who you'd like to lose and betting on the ones you think have the best chance of coming off forms a part of it. Like Cooper, I'd love to see her lose but I'm not tempted. Pidcock is a goner imo but Cooper hangs on......
I suspect the Tory vote is becoming less efficient as they will be piling up huge majorities in leave voting bits of their English heartlands and also doing a lot better in Labour's leave voting heartlands but only converting some of them into victories. They will also have more second places in Scotland. Piling up votes in safe Tory seats will be helped by the exit of BXP from Tory held seats. Labour by contrast will be piling up less votes in their Northern heartlands although they may be piling up more votes in safe seats in inner city seats.
1. Efficient tactical voting to topple more Con seats in the South than expected. 2. Because of BXP Cons come close but no cigar in a raft of Labour Leave seats. 3. Cons lose half a dozen in Scotland by narrow margins. 4. Labour do just enough in Wales to hold two dozen seats.
Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.
Seven British (English? - not sure about McTominay) players in United's starting line-up too. After three decades of antipathy to Utd, I'm starting to actually rather enjoy it when they win.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have very limited means so am having just a few fun small constituency bets. So far I am on Tories to gain exeter, perth and north perthshire and Edinburgh SW. I'll be sticking half a dozen more on as we approach polling day but Sunderland Central, Wansbeck and NW Durham tempt me
Some would say you are betting on your hoped for outcomes rather than predictions
Theres an aspect of that yes, when you're only having a quid or two then looking at who you'd like to lose and betting on the ones you think have the best chance of coming off forms a part of it. Like Cooper, I'd love to see her lose but I'm not tempted. Pidcock is a goner imo but Cooper hangs on......
I will be guilty of the same problem but we all justify it by believing we have more inside knowledge than others. But I’m going to tomorrow bet on Tory majority 60 plus which I see as a disaster, labour sub 200 which just might signal the return to left of center sanity, lib dems 20+ and a cheeky but not totally speculative on lib dem win yeovil
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
All on Betfair for tiny stakes as I'm not a serious gambler... just for added interest on the night.
£2 at 9 on Conservatives to be in the 360-369 seats band. £2 at 17 on the Lib Dems to be in the 30-39 seats band. £2 lay at 2.2 on the Lib Dems being in the 10-19 seats band. £6 at 5.8 on Labour to be in the 169 seats or below band. £2.50 at 12 on Labour to be in the 170-179 seats band. £2.50 at 11 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band. another £4 at 21 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band. £2 at 12.5 on Labour to be in the 190-199 seats band.
I never trust a poll selectively published by a pressure group. What's to stop the pressure group from commissioning 20 simulatenously polls, picking the one with the result they like and then releasing it?
Cost
Would it cost more than QC's to take matters through the courts? Miller and her fans have not been short of cash.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Anecdata from a full day's canvassing in Broxtowe, a classic E Mids Tory marginal which I used to represent (I'll be here all week). Nothing amazing but FWIW:
* Middle-class Labour holding up well, white working-class Labour shakier, with some genuinely liking Johnson ("he's got something to him that most politicians don't") as well as thinking he'll get Brexit done. Anti-Corbyn sentiment here and there but didn't seem a major factor here. * Some long-term middle-class Tory shakiness, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Boris ("I've voted Conservative all my life but I'm not voting for a buffoon", "I'm a one-nation Tory and I don't recognise them") * Enormous turnout of Labour canvassers - I've never seen anything like it throughout my time. 12 canvass teams of 4-5 people out this morning, 10 this afternoon and evening. * Anna Soubry respected and picking up some of the "plague on both houses" votes, but generally recognised as having no chance of winning. * Greens doing surprisingly well, picking up both Labour and Tory voters. One Tory told me he was going Green as "the sensible middle ground". (I swallowed hard and didn't explain that they're further left than Labour.) * Lots and lots of keen interest. 300 people at a hustings last night.
Tories favourites at the moment, but there are a lot of people still wavering.
This is exactly what I keep hearing and seeing in my Hampshire seat but here the vote is going Lib Dem.
It's genuinely extraordinary, people I never thought voting Lib Dem are going to. This is one of the safest seats in the country.
If Hinds has his majority cut to the more modest 5000 it had in the early 2000s, the Tories could be in real trouble in the South.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
You mean like a decision in the Privy Council or something? A new writ would have to be issued, I suppose?
As a Labour supporter I’ve accepted the horrors of 5 years more of Bozo but it’s fun seeing some Tories in here and the drama over the polls .
I'm amazed that soo many think that 'Get Brext done+ Bojo + The fear of Corbyn = A massive Tory victory. The Tories have pissed off large sections of society, mainly the voiceless and the vulnerable. For them, Brexit in 2016 was a means of paying back and that still stands. Labour is going to pull significant votes from the 'misfits' or people the Etonian Bojo looks down up. Definitely more than 35% of the votes. Betfair is currently labour on 35% plus at 2/1. Recommended, that and Lincoln Labour My top tips, not as a person interested in politics but as someone who wants to beat the bookies and say thank you to PB too. Grateful to someone here, don't know his name, who recommended City of Chester/ Labour in 2017- at nearly 5/1 I think. Made a killing that time, Thank you Sir.
Sorry, bet 365 offering 2/1 on Labour more than 35% vote share. If you see 2017, their vote share has ALWAYS been discounted. I think it's most likely going to be 38-40% by the 12th.
Any evidence to support that? Or your tips on Lincoln? Genuine question; do you have reliable sources?
1) Labour More than 35% , based on trends. Started with 29% then has gradually crept up and seems to have stalled at 33% mark. Similar case as in 2017. Also, this is my feeling, polls seem to underestimate the underdog. Just like they did to leave in 2016, and Labour in 2017. So labour crossing 35% by the 12th should not be a suprise at all, more like a General trend 2) I lived in Lincon for a long while, so wrote a detailed assessment on PB, a few days ago. Will try and dig it out.
I hadn't realised that Sir Tony Robinson alias Baldrick had quit the Labour Party after 45 years membership
During my recent two weeks off due to illness I watched a lot of old Time Teams: his enthusiasm in those is great. It always looks like he is really enjoying it. Presumably he quit for the same reason so many others have.
I never trust a poll selectively published by a pressure group. What's to stop the pressure group from commissioning 20 simulatenously polls, picking the one with the result they like and then releasing it?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
Yes, or activation of the CCA because of *insert disaster here*
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight. Takes us to Boxing Day, not sure if there's any further complications with that being a Bank Holiday.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight. Takes us to Boxing Day, not sure if there's any further complications with that being a Bank Holiday.
I never trust a poll selectively published by a pressure group. What's to stop the pressure group from commissioning 20 simulatenously polls, picking the one with the result they like and then releasing it?
They will certainly have a slant, but once you've worked out what that is you can safely interpret the rest of the poll in that context.
I expect this one is to do with tactical voting in some way. Check the order of the questions in the data tables and then you can see whether the headline numbers are worth paying attention to.
The difference between the two polls is interesting. Suggests that brand Labour is still strong (assuming there wasn't a leading question before the main vote intention question.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
Anecdata from a full day's canvassing in Broxtowe, a classic E Mids Tory marginal which I used to represent (I'll be here all week). Nothing amazing but FWIW:
* Middle-class Labour holding up well, white working-class Labour shakier, with some genuinely liking Johnson ("he's got something to him that most politicians don't") as well as thinking he'll get Brexit done. Anti-Corbyn sentiment here and there but didn't seem a major factor here. * Some long-term middle-class Tory shakiness, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Boris ("I've voted Conservative all my life but I'm not voting for a buffoon", "I'm a one-nation Tory and I don't recognise them") * Enormous turnout of Labour canvassers - I've never seen anything like it throughout my time. 12 canvass teams of 4-5 people out this morning, 10 this afternoon and evening. * Anna Soubry respected and picking up some of the "plague on both houses" votes, but generally recognised as having no chance of winning. * Greens doing surprisingly well, picking up both Labour and Tory voters. One Tory told me he was going Green as "the sensible middle ground". (I swallowed hard and didn't explain that they're further left than Labour.) * Lots and lots of keen interest. 300 people at a hustings last night.
Tories favourites at the moment, but there are a lot of people still wavering.
This is exactly what I keep hearing and seeing in my Hampshire seat but here the vote is going Lib Dem.
It's genuinely extraordinary, people I never thought voting Lib Dem are going to. This is one of the safest seats in the country.
If Hinds has his majority cut to the more modest 5000 it had in the early 2000s, the Tories could be in real trouble in the South.
Not so. Look at the margin of safety of most CON/LD marginals. Very few places where anything short of seismic shifts will make a huge difference, if Labour weakness vs 2017 is consistent.
Plus, if CON are leading by 6-10% nationally and losing swing in the south, then we're doing REALLY well in the Midlands and Northern marginals.
The problem with 2017 was that here in the South, for example, we put on huge vote share, winning.....all the seats we currently had, and losing a few elsewhere...
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
You mean like a decision in the Privy Council or something? A new writ would have to be issued, I suppose?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.
Anecdata from a full day's canvassing in Broxtowe, a classic E Mids Tory marginal which I used to represent (I'll be here all week). Nothing amazing but FWIW:
* Middle-class Labour holding up well, white working-class Labour shakier, with some genuinely liking Johnson ("he's got something to him that most politicians don't") as well as thinking he'll get Brexit done. Anti-Corbyn sentiment here and there but didn't seem a major factor here. * Some long-term middle-class Tory shakiness, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Boris ("I've voted Conservative all my life but I'm not voting for a buffoon", "I'm a one-nation Tory and I don't recognise them") * Enormous turnout of Labour canvassers - I've never seen anything like it throughout my time. 12 canvass teams of 4-5 people out this morning, 10 this afternoon and evening. * Anna Soubry respected and picking up some of the "plague on both houses" votes, but generally recognised as having no chance of winning. * Greens doing surprisingly well, picking up both Labour and Tory voters. One Tory told me he was going Green as "the sensible middle ground". (I swallowed hard and didn't explain that they're further left than Labour.) * Lots and lots of keen interest. 300 people at a hustings last night.
Tories favourites at the moment, but there are a lot of people still wavering.
This is exactly what I keep hearing and seeing in my Hampshire seat but here the vote is going Lib Dem.
It's genuinely extraordinary, people I never thought voting Lib Dem are going to. This is one of the safest seats in the country.
If Hinds has his majority cut to the more modest 5000 it had in the early 2000s, the Tories could be in real trouble in the South.
Not so. Look at the margin of safety of most CON/LD marginals. Very few places where anything short of seismic shifts will make a huge difference, if Labour weakness vs 2017 is consistent.
Plus, if CON are leading by 6-10% nationally and losing swing in the south, then we're doing REALLY well in the Midlands and Northern marginals.
The problem with 2017 was that here in the South, for example, we put on huge vote share, winning.....all the seats we currently had, and losing a few elsewhere...
You don't think Hinds having his majority massively cut - which is what I am seeing at the moment - is indicative of wider issues with the Tory Party in the South? That could put a lot of more marginal Tory/Lib Dem seats like Guildford and Winchester in play surely?
If ComRes is right and the majority is 14, there's not a lot of room to move.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.
What's the evidence for saying that?
Oh I see - the Representation of the People Act 1985.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
You mean like a decision in the Privy Council or something? A new writ would have to be issued, I suppose?
I'm assuming if it happens the election would be changed to 27/12/19 since 26/12/19 is a Bank Holiday.
I think Chris was asking if there are any other powers beyond this. The FTPA states that the date is decided by proclamation if there is an early election. Can the writ for the election be changed by HM after it has been issued?
Has a party ever won a general election only one week after its leader has been the subject of an excoriating prime time monologue on the BBC by Andrew Neil?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.
What's the evidence for saying that?
Oh I see - the Representation of the People Act 1985.
Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.
Seven British (English? - not sure about McTominay) players in United's starting line-up too. After three decades of antipathy to Utd, I'm starting to actually rather enjoy it when they win.
Dan James is Welsh
Born and went to school in Hull. Father born in Wales.
Lincoln , very close fight Just my two pence worth of thoughts, wrt Lincon. Have lived and worked there, so know a little about it. Pros and Cons, for Labour Karen Lee Pros: -Student vote - around 1500+ -Brexit Party to split Leave votes -Possible tactical voting from Greens and even LD Karen has been more hands on and visible in Lincon, with a more down to earth nature. Being a nurse also helps, given the way the public services are at the moment. Not a hugely leave area 55:45 unlike neighbouring Boston, which I think was like 70:30
Cons: -Her biggest threat comes from being strongly remain in a 55-45 leave Constituency. A lot of people feel let down, even calling her a traitor. How much of this would translate into votes, time will tell - As usual JC, but he was there in 2017, so people have got used to him, like a rash.
Conservative: Karl McCartney Pros: strongly Brexit, will he polarise the 55% vote? Tyen he wins Cons: quite a few , actually. -Has been MP for 7 years, so has a lot to answer, when he promises new stuff, like park and ride. -Lot of people have been hurt by 9 years of austerity, so again on the back foot - Has this impression of being arrogant and little too full of himself. Read his facebook page, with mostly negative comments from the public, v unsual in the North - Was involved in the expenses scandal as well as hiring his wife. People have not forgotten that
So, overall it's going to be a close fight, with Karen slightly ahead. However, if the Tories had selected a newbie, with not much baggage as Karl, then most likely the Tories had this in the bag. My verdict, close win for Karen, less than 1000 votes . Please feel free to disagree. The red wall in the North has been shaken. Whether it will crumble, will depend on many factors, including turnout and not only on Brexit alone
Has a party ever won a general election only one week after its leader has been the subject of an excoriating prime time monologue on the BBC by Andrew Neil?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.
What's the evidence for saying that?
Oh I see - the Representation of the People Act 1985.
No excuse for Betfair, though, because it would still be in December 2019 ...
Anecdata from a full day's canvassing in Broxtowe, a classic E Mids Tory marginal which I used to represent (I'll be here all week). Nothing amazing but FWIW:
* Middle-class Labour holding up well, white working-class Labour shakier, with some genuinely liking Johnson ("he's got something to him that most politicians don't") as well as thinking he'll get Brexit done. Anti-Corbyn sentiment here and there but didn't seem a major factor here. * Some long-term middle-class Tory shakiness, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Boris ("I've voted Conservative all my life but I'm not voting for a buffoon", "I'm a one-nation Tory and I don't recognise them") * Enormous turnout of Labour canvassers - I've never seen anything like it throughout my time. 12 canvass teams of 4-5 people out this morning, 10 this afternoon and evening. * Anna Soubry respected and picking up some of the "plague on both houses" votes, but generally recognised as having no chance of winning. * Greens doing surprisingly well, picking up both Labour and Tory voters. One Tory told me he was going Green as "the sensible middle ground". (I swallowed hard and didn't explain that they're further left than Labour.) * Lots and lots of keen interest. 300 people at a hustings last night.
Tories favourites at the moment, but there are a lot of people still wavering.
This is exactly what I keep hearing and seeing in my Hampshire seat but here the vote is going Lib Dem.
It's genuinely extraordinary, people I never thought voting Lib Dem are going to. This is one of the safest seats in the country.
If Hinds has his majority cut to the more modest 5000 it had in the early 2000s, the Tories could be in real trouble in the South.
Not so. Look at the margin of safety of most CON/LD marginals. Very few places where anything short of seismic shifts will make a huge difference, if Labour weakness vs 2017 is consistent.
Plus, if CON are leading by 6-10% nationally and losing swing in the south, then we're doing REALLY well in the Midlands and Northern marginals.
The problem with 2017 was that here in the South, for example, we put on huge vote share, winning.....all the seats we currently had, and losing a few elsewhere...
You don't think Hinds having his majority massively cut - which is what I am seeing at the moment - is indicative of wider issues with the Tory Party in the South? That could put a lot of more marginal Tory/Lib Dem seats like Guildford and Winchester in play surely?
If ComRes is right and the majority is 14, there's not a lot of room to move.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.
What's the evidence for saying that?
Oh I see - the Representation of the People Act 1985.
No excuse for Betfair, though, because it would still be in December 2019 ...
Could have two demises of the crown in quick succession.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.
What's the evidence for saying that?
The law. Don't know if that was the case before FTPA, but it definitely updated the relevant statutes so.
Has a party ever won a general election only one week after its leader has been the subject of an excoriating prime time monologue on the BBC by Andrew Neil?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
You mean like a decision in the Privy Council or something? A new writ would have to be issued, I suppose?
Anecdata from a full day's canvassing in Broxtowe, a classic E Mids Tory marginal which I used to represent (I'll be here all week). Nothing amazing but FWIW:
* Middle-class Labour holding up well, white working-class Labour shakier, with some genuinely liking Johnson ("he's got something to him that most politicians don't") as well as thinking he'll get Brexit done. Anti-Corbyn sentiment here and there but didn't seem a major factor here. * Some long-term middle-class Tory shakiness, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Boris ("I've voted Conservative all my life but I'm not voting for a buffoon", "I'm a one-nation Tory and I don't recognise them") * Enormous turnout of Labour canvassers - I've never seen anything like it throughout my time. 12 canvass teams of 4-5 people out this morning, 10 this afternoon and evening. * Anna Soubry respected and picking up some of the "plague on both houses" votes, but generally recognised as having no chance of winning. * Greens doing surprisingly well, picking up both Labour and Tory voters. One Tory told me he was going Green as "the sensible middle ground". (I swallowed hard and didn't explain that they're further left than Labour.) * Lots and lots of keen interest. 300 people at a hustings last night.
Tories favourites at the moment, but there are a lot of people still wavering.
This is exactly what I keep hearing and seeing in my Hampshire seat but here the vote is going Lib Dem.
It's genuinely extraordinary, people I never thought voting Lib Dem are going to. This is one of the safest seats in the country.
If Hinds has his majority cut to the more modest 5000 it had in the early 2000s, the Tories could be in real trouble in the South.
Not so. Look at the margin of safety of most CON/LD marginals. Very few places where anything short of seismic shifts will make a huge difference, if Labour weakness vs 2017 is consistent.
Plus, if CON are leading by 6-10% nationally and losing swing in the south, then we're doing REALLY well in the Midlands and Northern marginals.
The problem with 2017 was that here in the South, for example, we put on huge vote share, winning.....all the seats we currently had, and losing a few elsewhere...
Sounds like the subsequent election will have far more marginals.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
You mean like a decision in the Privy Council or something? A new writ would have to be issued, I suppose?
Just a technical note on the two ComRes's which seems to have been largely overlooked. the Telegraph one is taken with the actual candidates, which means that in half the seats respondents were not offered a Brexit Party option. If we think the BXP vote nationally is 4%, and that BXP voters without a candidate will generally go for Boris, then that explains the difference entirely. It's probably more complicated than that, but I'd guess that's most of the difference.
What this means specifically is that the 8-point lead reflects Tories being safer in their own seats, and the 6-point lead is a reflection of the position elsewhere. We shouldn't knock ourselves out obsessing over one poll when there are lots more coming, but maybe this is helpful in understanding what's happening.
Anecdata from a full day's canvassing in Broxtowe, a classic E Mids Tory marginal which I used to represent (I'll be here all week). Nothing amazing but FWIW:
* Middle-class Labour holding up well, white working-class Labour shakier, with some genuinely liking Johnson ("he's got something to him that most politicians don't") as well as thinking he'll get Brexit done. Anti-Corbyn sentiment here and there but didn't seem a major factor here. * Some long-term middle-class Tory shakiness, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Boris ("I've voted Conservative all my life but I'm not voting for a buffoon", "I'm a one-nation Tory and I don't recognise them") * Enormous turnout of Labour canvassers - I've never seen anything like it throughout my time. 12 canvass teams of 4-5 people out this morning, 10 this afternoon and evening. * Anna Soubry respected and picking up some of the "plague on both houses" votes, but generally recognised as having no chance of winning. * Greens doing surprisingly well, picking up both Labour and Tory voters. One Tory told me he was going Green as "the sensible middle ground". (I swallowed hard and didn't explain that they're further left than Labour.) * Lots and lots of keen interest. 300 people at a hustings last night.
Tories favourites at the moment, but there are a lot of people still wavering.
This is exactly what I keep hearing and seeing in my Hampshire seat but here the vote is going Lib Dem.
It's genuinely extraordinary, people I never thought voting Lib Dem are going to. This is one of the safest seats in the country.
If Hinds has his majority cut to the more modest 5000 it had in the early 2000s, the Tories could be in real trouble in the South.
Not so. Look at the margin of safety of most CON/LD marginals. Very few places where anything short of seismic shifts will make a huge difference, if Labour weakness vs 2017 is consistent.
Plus, if CON are leading by 6-10% nationally and losing swing in the south, then we're doing REALLY well in the Midlands and Northern marginals.
The problem with 2017 was that here in the South, for example, we put on huge vote share, winning.....all the seats we currently had, and losing a few elsewhere...
You don't think Hinds having his majority massively cut - which is what I am seeing at the moment - is indicative of wider issues with the Tory Party in the South? That could put a lot of more marginal Tory/Lib Dem seats like Guildford and Winchester in play surely?
If ComRes is right and the majority is 14, there's not a lot of room to move.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.
What's the evidence for saying that?
Oh I see - the Representation of the People Act 1985.
No excuse for Betfair, though, because it would still be in December 2019 ...
Could have two demises of the crown in quick succession.
With all his faults, I do not think of Prince Charles as a latter day Dipendra of Nepal, even if they both had somewhat complicated love lives.
Just a technical note on the two ComRes's which seems to have been largely overlooked. the Telegraph one is taken with the actual candidates, which means that in half the seats respondents were not offered a Brexit Party option. If we think the BXP vote nationally is 4%, and that BXP voters without a candidate will generally go for Boris, then that explains the difference entirely. It's probably more complicated than that, but I'd guess that's most of the difference.
What this means specifically is that the 8-point lead reflects Tories being safer in their own seats, and the 6-point lead is a reflection of the position elsewhere. We shouldn't knock ourselves out obsessing over one poll when there are lots more coming, but maybe this is helpful in understanding what's happening.
I thought they had accounted for BXP not standing in Tory seats ages ago. The change here is the list of candidates, rather than simply the party names?
Comments
Or in a report on it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48152475
Anyway, whatevs, if you think of Sunderland as part of Co Durham that's fine.
Same applies to the Lib Dems as shown in the polls.
Could be Tory Maj at 1.36 was too short
Could be Tory Maj at 1.41 more realistic
Laid Tory majority a few times, average odds of 1.55.
No overall majority, average odds 1.94.
Labour majority at average odds 17.08 [hoping this drops a bit and I can cash out].
Labour vote percentage 30-34.99 at 3.60 [although this was several months ago and I think it will be higher, could cash out now for £15 profit].
Tory vote percentage 30-34.99 at 2.54 [poor bet].
So both are valid polls - take the one you prefer
Just need someone to take some points off the Foxes and we can rest players more in the League.
Opinium still 14 I reckon. Others still 10 on average
Cons to win Bishop Auckland, Finchley and Golders Green, Kensington, Battersea and Westmorland and Lonsdale.
A few dud bets I don't think will now come through like Lib Dems to win Guildford and Labour to take Hastings and Rye.
£100 on Lib Dem seat ranges, with about a £50 return 10-19 seats, break even less than 10 seats, £25 return 20-29 seats.
Another £120 split between
Con 40-45% range, for about £80 profit, break even on 35% -40% and 45%-50% so fairly confident of that one. .
Con seats over 340 for about £50 profit, not feeling very confident about this one.
Overall majority con for another £40 profit, still fairly confident about this.
Sorry, I misread the tone in your original post.
Labour holding Canterbury was also a Corbyn-esque giveaway.
https://youtu.be/G0ZZJXw4MTA
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
* Middle-class Labour holding up well, white working-class Labour shakier, with some genuinely liking Johnson ("he's got something to him that most politicians don't") as well as thinking he'll get Brexit done. Anti-Corbyn sentiment here and there but didn't seem a major factor here.
* Some long-term middle-class Tory shakiness, partly due to Brexit and partly due to Boris ("I've voted Conservative all my life but I'm not voting for a buffoon", "I'm a one-nation Tory and I don't recognise them")
* Enormous turnout of Labour canvassers - I've never seen anything like it throughout my time. 12 canvass teams of 4-5 people out this morning, 10 this afternoon and evening.
* Anna Soubry respected and picking up some of the "plague on both houses" votes, but generally recognised as having no chance of winning.
* Greens doing surprisingly well, picking up both Labour and Tory voters. One Tory told me he was going Green as "the sensible middle ground". (I swallowed hard and didn't explain that they're further left than Labour.)
* Lots and lots of keen interest. 300 people at a hustings last night.
Tories favourites at the moment, but there are a lot of people still wavering.
2. Because of BXP Cons come close but no cigar in a raft of Labour Leave seats.
3. Cons lose half a dozen in Scotland by narrow margins.
4. Labour do just enough in Wales to hold two dozen seats.
This is the route to salvation.
Bet 365 offering 16/1 for Cons less than 309 seats
Insurance??
£2 at 9 on Conservatives to be in the 360-369 seats band.
£2 at 17 on the Lib Dems to be in the 30-39 seats band.
£2 lay at 2.2 on the Lib Dems being in the 10-19 seats band.
£6 at 5.8 on Labour to be in the 169 seats or below band.
£2.50 at 12 on Labour to be in the 170-179 seats band.
£2.50 at 11 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band.
another £4 at 21 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band.
£2 at 12.5 on Labour to be in the 190-199 seats band.
It's genuinely extraordinary, people I never thought voting Lib Dem are going to. This is one of the safest seats in the country.
If Hinds has his majority cut to the more modest 5000 it had in the early 2000s, the Tories could be in real trouble in the South.
2) I lived in Lincon for a long while, so wrote a detailed assessment on PB, a few days ago. Will try and dig it out.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2000/may/24/uk.labour1
I expect this one is to do with tactical voting in some way. Check the order of the questions in the data tables and then you can see whether the headline numbers are worth paying attention to.
The difference between the two polls is interesting. Suggests that brand Labour is still strong (assuming there wasn't a leading question before the main vote intention question.
Absolutely horrific.
Plus, if CON are leading by 6-10% nationally and losing swing in the south, then we're doing REALLY well in the Midlands and Northern marginals.
The problem with 2017 was that here in the South, for example, we put on huge vote share, winning.....all the seats we currently had, and losing a few elsewhere...
I'm assuming if it happens the election would be changed to 27/12/19 since 26/12/19 is a Bank Holiday.
If ComRes is right and the majority is 14, there's not a lot of room to move.
Lincoln , very close fight
Just my two pence worth of thoughts, wrt Lincon. Have lived and worked there, so know a little about it.
Pros and Cons, for Labour Karen Lee
Pros:
-Student vote - around 1500+
-Brexit Party to split Leave votes
-Possible tactical voting from Greens and even LD
Karen has been more hands on and visible in Lincon, with a more down to earth nature. Being a nurse also helps, given the way the public services are at the moment.
Not a hugely leave area 55:45 unlike neighbouring Boston, which I think was like 70:30
Cons:
-Her biggest threat comes from being strongly remain in a 55-45 leave Constituency. A lot of people feel let down, even calling her a traitor. How much of this would translate into votes, time will tell
- As usual JC, but he was there in 2017, so people have got used to him, like a rash.
Conservative: Karl McCartney
Pros: strongly Brexit, will he polarise the 55% vote? Tyen he wins
Cons: quite a few , actually.
-Has been MP for 7 years, so has a lot to answer, when he promises new stuff, like park and ride.
-Lot of people have been hurt by 9 years of austerity, so again on the back foot
- Has this impression of being arrogant and little too full of himself. Read his facebook page, with mostly negative comments from the public, v unsual in the North
- Was involved in the expenses scandal as well as hiring his wife. People have not forgotten that
So, overall it's going to be a close fight, with Karen slightly ahead. However, if the Tories had selected a newbie, with not much baggage as Karl, then most likely the Tories had this in the bag.
My verdict, close win for Karen, less than 1000 votes . Please feel free to disagree.
The red wall in the North has been shaken. Whether it will crumble, will depend on many factors, including turnout and not only on Brexit alone
I don’t think I could stand another fifteen days of this.
What this means specifically is that the 8-point lead reflects Tories being safer in their own seats, and the 6-point lead is a reflection of the position elsewhere. We shouldn't knock ourselves out obsessing over one poll when there are lots more coming, but maybe this is helpful in understanding what's happening.
Ah.