Why did Comres have others go from 1% to 5% in their last poll? Seems odd.
They changed to asking people about the candidates in their specific constituencies, which will have included named independents. There is a lot of randomness in the incidence and significance of independent candidates score so if they happened to pick a disproportionate number of constituencies with well known independents (e.g. Grieve, Field, Soubry etc) then sampling error could have given an unusually high score. Given that others score has probably just reverted to around the norm I don't see anything in the latest ComRes that should give cause to question the poll.
Right, so what we need to know is, was this most recent poll done on the same basis of the last poll or the last but one poll?
Martin Boons comment re. ComRes interesting. Suggests ComRes numbers indicate PC and SNP numberw collapsing which he notes as unlikely. So a very odd poll.
Wouldn't it just mean SNP 3.5 Plaid 0.7 Others 1.3 something like that ?
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
What rate of decay do you incorporate into the EWMA?
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
What rate of decay do you incorporate into the EWMA?
How much did the 2017 polls overstate the SNP share and understate the SCon share? You all laughed at me for predicting SCon gains in 2017 just as you did at me predicting a Liberal meltdown in 2015
Bullshit. Everyone on here was recommending piling on SCon seat bets. SCon over 9 seats was my biggest winner.
With the exception of malcolmg no one was mocking anyone for predicting a SCon surge in 2017.
SCon seat numbers market, tipped on here a couple of weeks out, saved my book from ending up twice as bad as it did in 2017.
I was practically begging people to pile on Con in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. Betfair Sportsbook opened them at 1.5 - I had gone in willing to back them at 1.16 and couldn't believe it. I genuinely thought it would be palped.
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
I understand why you do that and not wishing to piss on your campfire (full marks for even having a model) but you are not going to capture a late swing if there is one are you?
No unless I change the decay rate to say 20% so it reacts quicker but is noisier. I'm loathe to do that. If a lot of polls come out at the same time showing a swing then I think the 10% decay rate will cope.
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
I don’t know why you bother feeding polls into your model; it seems to know the answer quite well without them?
Just so clear, what would be most helpful for people on the live spreadsheet?
Ordered by announcement time...
Result 2019, Yougov MRP, Result 2017, Leave %..
the results before the returning officer says the words "I [X], the acting returning officer".
LOL...I am not sure how fast BBC will update their site, so data will be dependent on how fast they get through the seat stuff. I predict a bit of a delay.
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
Well I'm genuinely terrified of Johnson if that's any help.
Corbyn won't win this election. The most he can reasonably achieve is a coalition which will regulate him to some extent and almost certainly keep us in the EU, which is an added sanity cushion.
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
What rate of decay do you incorporate into the EWMA?
10%
By date, or by number of polls?
By number of polls. Last one in gets a 10% weight and pushes earlier polls one back.
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
What rate of decay do you incorporate into the EWMA?
10%
By date, or by number of polls?
By number of polls. Last one in gets a 10% weight and pushes earlier polls one back.
By date would be better surely, otherwise it is a function of which order you put them in.
Edit: for example, you will give more weight to the ComRes poll than the Panelbase poll, despite the latter being newer.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 30m Nobody - and I literally mean not a single candidate or staffer for any of the parties I’ve spoken to - thinks Labour is suddenly surging. Quite the opposite.
I'm sorry but that dents this polls credibility. That piece by Gina Miller could well have been written before she even saw the results. Something definitely off here.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 30m Nobody - and I literally mean not a single candidate or staffer for any of the parties I’ve spoken to - thinks Labour is suddenly surging. Quite the opposite.
They'd have had to go up eight points in two days to explain this poll compared to the last ComRes one.
It’s irrelevant who the poll is for unless they try to skew the results with putting the voting intention at a different stage in the survey than normal practice .
I think what’s happened here is this is a separate poll than the normal one for the Sunday Telegraph which explains the fieldwork dates .
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
Well I'm genuinely terrified of Johnson if that's any help.
Corbyn won't win this election. The most he can reasonably achieve is a coalition which will regulate him to some extent and almost certainly keep us in the EU, which is an added sanity cushion.
Do you by any chance play Russian Roulette as a hobby ?
I'm sorry but that dents this polls credibility. That piece by Gina Miller could well have been written before she even saw the results. Something definitely off here.
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
What rate of decay do you incorporate into the EWMA?
10%
By date, or by number of polls?
By number of polls. Last one in gets a 10% weight and pushes earlier polls one back.
By date would be better surely, otherwise it is a function of which order you put them in.
Edit: for example, you will give more wait to the ComRes poll than the Panelbase poll, despite the latter being newer.
I put them in date of publication order. I ought to do it by fieldwork order but it's a lot more work as I have to rework the moving average and makes little difference (typically the difference between 10% weight and 9% weight in the case of the ComRes and Panelbase polls).
I'm sorry but that dents this polls credibility. That piece by Gina Miller could well have been written before she even saw the results. Something definitely off here.
I'm sorry but that dents this polls credibility. That piece by Gina Miller could well have been written before she even saw the results. Something definitely off here.
That is just weird
You don't think there's something a little whiffy about this Big G?
It is funny to see people now attacking ComRes for a poll they don't like! The boot is on the other foot now, especially many of whom attacked Labourites who attacked YouGov!
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
Well I'm genuinely terrified of Johnson if that's any help.
Corbyn won't win this election. The most he can reasonably achieve is a coalition which will regulate him to some extent and almost certainly keep us in the EU, which is an added sanity cushion.
Do you by any chance play Russian Roulette as a hobby ?
Yep every day before breakfast, sometimes at lunch and always just before my afternoon nap.
Like Hugh Grant Johnson absolutely terrifies me.
I have a lifelong Conservative barrister friend who is thinking of voting Corbyn because he knows Johnson will No Deal us out of the EU and the dangers of that are far, far, worse than 5 yrs of Corbyn.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 30m Nobody - and I literally mean not a single candidate or staffer for any of the parties I’ve spoken to - thinks Labour is suddenly surging. Quite the opposite.
They'd have had to go up eight points in two days to explain this poll compared to the last ComRes one.
Dan Hodges has been wrong about pretty much everything since 2015, so I think this means there's a good chance Labour is surging
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
Well I'm genuinely terrified of Johnson if that's any help.
Corbyn won't win this election. The most he can reasonably achieve is a coalition which will regulate him to some extent and almost certainly keep us in the EU, which is an added sanity cushion.
Do you by any chance play Russian Roulette as a hobby ?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 30m Nobody - and I literally mean not a single candidate or staffer for any of the parties I’ve spoken to - thinks Labour is suddenly surging. Quite the opposite.
Undecided Tory vote still coming back in today, out there in Real-Not-Polling land.
I'm sorry but that dents this polls credibility. That piece by Gina Miller could well have been written before she even saw the results. Something definitely off here.
I'm sorry but that dents this polls credibility. That piece by Gina Miller could well have been written before she even saw the results. Something definitely off here.
That is just weird
You don't think there's something a little whiffy about this Big G?
It does seem strange. Lets see the next polls to see if there is a trend
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
Well I'm genuinely terrified of Johnson if that's any help.
Corbyn won't win this election. The most he can reasonably achieve is a coalition which will regulate him to some extent and almost certainly keep us in the EU, which is an added sanity cushion.
Do you by any chance play Russian Roulette as a hobby ?
He does, but he only wins half of the time.
Russian roulette is a great game - I've never met anyone who's lost!
I'm sorry but that dents this polls credibility. That piece by Gina Miller could well have been written before she even saw the results. Something definitely off here.
That is just weird
But I guess it means we will be seeing another SavantaComRes poll tonight for the Sunday Telegraph with more recent fieldwork dates?
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
What rate of decay do you incorporate into the EWMA?
10%
By date, or by number of polls?
By number of polls. Last one in gets a 10% weight and pushes earlier polls one back.
By date would be better surely, otherwise it is a function of which order you put them in.
Edit: for example, you will give more wait to the ComRes poll than the Panelbase poll, despite the latter being newer.
I put them in date of publication order. I ought to do it by fieldwork order but it's a lot more work as I have to rework the moving average and makes little difference (typically the difference between 10% weight and 9% weight in the case of the ComRes and Panelbase polls).
If I put the raw Panel base poll in I get If I put the raw ComRes poll in I get
The dodgyness of the poll suddenly makes a lot more sense. I've worked for a polling company before, please dont tell me the client makes no difference to the poll results.
It absolutely does.
We need to look at the methodology of the poll to see the question order .
If for example you have leading questions before the voter intention then that would skew the results but until we see the methodology we won’t know.
It’s irrelevant who the poll is for unless they try to skew the results with putting the voting intention at a different stage in the survey than normal practice .
I think what’s happened here is this is a separate poll than the normal one for the Sunday Telegraph which explains the fieldwork dates .
Yeah the whiff of desperation on here is almost painful to behold.
Labour share is firming up. I promise. This is NOT landslide territory out there by a long shot. The tories might squeak home but that's all it will be.
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
What rate of decay do you incorporate into the EWMA?
10%
By date, or by number of polls?
By number of polls. Last one in gets a 10% weight and pushes earlier polls one back.
By date would be better surely, otherwise it is a function of which order you put them in.
Edit: for example, you will give more wait to the ComRes poll than the Panelbase poll, despite the latter being newer.
I put them in date of publication order. I ought to do it by fieldwork order but it's a lot more work as I have to rework the moving average and makes little difference (typically the difference between 10% weight and 9% weight in the case of the ComRes and Panelbase polls).
If I put the raw Panel base poll in I get If I put the raw ComRes poll in I get
That's just from changing the order, or only including one poll at a time?
Other things on this evening, might check in later and see how the rest of the numbers stack up. But I reckon this ComRes will transpire to be an outlier.
Sorry if this has been discussed in the last few days, but, does anybody know haw many NEW people where added to the electoral roles during the campaign?
IIRC, in 2017 2 million people registered during the campaign but when the final electoral role was released it transpired that 80% where all ready on the registered.
This time I think that 3.1m people registered to vote, but don't know when/if the final electoral role has been released and if so how much has it gone up?
Sorry if this has been discussed in the last few days, but, does anybody know haw many NEW people where added to the electoral roles during the campaign?
IIRC, in 2017 2 million people registered during the campaign but when the final electoral role was released it transpired that 80% where all ready on the registered.
This time I think that 3.1m people registered to vote, but don't know when/if the final electoral role has been released and if so how much has it gone up?
There were some comments earlier that in some constituencies the electorate was virtually unchanged, implying a very large fraction of those registering were already on the register.
Right, I am also off for the evening. If people have more thoughts about live spreadsheet for Thursday night feel free to PM me. I am learning towards several sheets, showing slightly different targeted info.
After YouGov MRP on Tuesday, I will put up a test one for people to look at / comment.
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
Now that is very interesting, and it's even before a very close debate.
The Chicken Bozo effect? Didn’t do Mrs M any favour to be running away.
Doubt it. Apart from anything else there's something weird going on with the dates. Fieldwork on the Panelbase that was published yesterday was actually completed after this Comres, and it gave results in line with recent trends.
Again, more data needed. If the rest of the polls do show a Labour upswing then it'll probably be down to the squeeze on the Lib Dems starting up again, rather than the Con vote declining because of what Boris Johnson has done, or for any other reason. But let's wait and see.
11% for the LibDems is as low as they have been for a long time.
Suspect it might vary significantly from constituency to constituency.
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
I wouldn't be attacking the polling company like you are doing.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
Well I'm genuinely terrified of Johnson if that's any help.
Corbyn won't win this election. The most he can reasonably achieve is a coalition which will regulate him to some extent and almost certainly keep us in the EU, which is an added sanity cushion.
Do you by any chance play Russian Roulette as a hobby ?
He does, but he only wins half of the time.
Who is 'he'?
There's a Golden Rule about not believing the poll you don't like.
Labour share is definitely firming, that's all I know. And the LibDems are doing very well in Remainia.
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
I wouldn't be attacking the polling company like you are doing.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
It's just sad to see hypocrisy yet again.
Literally no one is attacking the polling company.
I’m having stomach ulcers and sleepless nights over this election. I’m genuinely terrified of a Corbyn government. If bozo wins next Friday I will breathe one massive sigh of relief
Well I'm genuinely terrified of Johnson if that's any help.
Corbyn won't win this election. The most he can reasonably achieve is a coalition which will regulate him to some extent and almost certainly keep us in the EU, which is an added sanity cushion.
Do you by any chance play Russian Roulette as a hobby ?
He does, but he only wins half of the time.
Who is 'he'?
There's a Golden Rule about not believing the poll you don't like.
Labour share is definitely firming, that's all I know. And the LibDems are doing very well in Remainia.
Squeaky bum time if you're a tory.
Ms Rose
The other figure in this poll is the thing we can question. Unless something major had happened apparently both SNP votes and PC votes have collapsed into Labours. I find that highly dubious
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
I wouldn't be attacking the polling company like you are doing.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
It's just sad to see hypocrisy yet again.
Literally no one is attacking the polling company.
They are, look above. They're saying ComRes are doing dodgy things because of the client without any evidence at all.
I suspect whoever posted it, has compared the wrong fieldwork dates. But I don't think that is ComRes's fault.
Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persistent.
What rate of decay do you incorporate into the EWMA?
10%
By date, or by number of polls?
By number of polls. Last one in gets a 10% weight and pushes earlier polls one back.
By date would be better surely, otherwise it is a function of which order you put them in.
Edit: for example, you will give more wait to the ComRes poll than the Panelbase poll, despite the latter being newer.
I put them in date of publication order. I ought to do it by fieldwork order but it's a lot more work as I have to rework the moving average and makes little difference (typically the difference between 10% weight and 9% weight in the case of the ComRes and Panelbase polls).
If I put the raw Panel base poll in I get If I put the raw ComRes poll in I get
That's just from changing the order, or only including one poll at a time?
Only including one poll at a time. Changing the order makes no difference to the seat prediction.
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
I wouldn't be attacking the polling company like you are doing.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
It's just sad to see hypocrisy yet again.
Where have I attacked the polling company? Now you're just inventing things. Every poll that has been released throughout the entire campaign you have nit picked to death when they have shown big Tory leads, scrambling for crumbs of comfort. You're on seriously thin ice accusing other people of being hypocrites.
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
I wouldn't be attacking the polling company like you are doing.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
It's just sad to see hypocrisy yet again.
Literally no one is attacking the polling company.
They are, look above. They're saying ComRes are doing dodgy things because of the client without any evidence at all.
I suspect whoever posted it, has compared the wrong fieldwork dates. But I don't think that is ComRes's fault.
That's attacking whoever commissioned the poll, surely?
As for the dates, the press release and the dates of the previous poll are correct. So there is still the confusion about the +8 in two days.
Calling an outlier is fair enough - but I do not like the idea of attacking ComRes and calling them corrupt without a shred of evidence.
You'd attack me if I started doing the "ToryGov" thing. Don't be hypocrites.
Seems fair.
However, worth pointing out house effects do rather add up between the two extremes. Comres are Labour's best pollster from a chart I saw, a net 2.7% (little low on Con, little high on Lab) on the lead away from the average. Meanwhile, YG are 2.6% in the other direction (mostly from being very neg on Lab, about average on Con). Add that up, total is 5.3% difference on the Con-Lab headline.
Some of this may have disappeared with the BXP decision on where to stand though, I'm not sure. YG's house effect in particular seemed to produce a lot more Lab>BXP switchers than others (which isn't to say they will be proven wrong of course).
If there are two ComRes polls with different methodologies that still doesn't make them corrupt.
Call it an outlier, that's absolutely fine. But don't attack the polling company themselves.
People from the Labour Party are always attacking YouGov because it's founder was a former Tory candidate and they have been showing consistent leads for the Tories that would lead them to winning a majority But YouGov was the only pollster to correctly predict the Corbyn surge in 2017.
Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
Come on CHB you know you would be doing the same if, for example, this poll had been commissioned by Aaron Banks and showed Labour -4. You can't have it both ways.
I wouldn't be attacking the polling company like you are doing.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
It's just sad to see hypocrisy yet again.
Where have I attacked the polling company? Now you're just inventing things. Every poll that has been released throughout the entire campaign you have nit picked to death when they have shown big Tory leads, scrambling for crumbs of comfort. You're on seriously thin ice accusing other people of being hypocrites.
I never attacked the polling companies, I never attacked the people that commissioned them.
You're making completely fabricated arguments to suit your originally wrong and unsustainable point.
I've said what I think will happen - but I have always said the polls don't agree with that.
If this poll is correct, and Labour are surging due to a collapse in SNP support, that might actually be bad news for them. After all, SNP-Labour seat swaps are mathematically irrelevant unless Labour are close to a majority, but nine seats could fall to the Tories from the SNP on a uniform swing of 5%.
I personally think it very unlikely the SNP’s vote are collapsing to Corbyn. I think this may be a weighting anomaly.
Comments
41% and 45%.
42%.
Not sure what we can conclude from that
Instead I have just been massively restricted.
I’m dubious until this poll is shown on Savanta Comres own twitter feed .
https://twitter.com/thatginamiller/status/1203352419264090112/photo/1
Ordered by announcement time...
Result 2019, Yougov MRP, Result 2017, Leave %..
https://ig.ft.com/elections/uk/2017/polls/
Corbyn won't win this election. The most he can reasonably achieve is a coalition which will regulate him to some extent and almost certainly keep us in the EU, which is an added sanity cushion.
Edit: for example, you will give more weight to the ComRes poll than the Panelbase poll, despite the latter being newer.
@DPJHodges
·
30m
Nobody - and I literally mean not a single candidate or staffer for any of the parties I’ve spoken to - thinks Labour is suddenly surging. Quite the opposite.
I think what’s happened here is this is a separate poll than the normal one for the Sunday Telegraph which explains the fieldwork dates .
312
250
15
51
Labour + Lib Dems + SNP - inject it into my veins!
LOL! For once my hands are clean!
Like Hugh Grant Johnson absolutely terrifies me.
I have a lifelong Conservative barrister friend who is thinking of voting Corbyn because he knows Johnson will No Deal us out of the EU and the dangers of that are far, far, worse than 5 yrs of Corbyn.
I'm taking this poll with a huge pinch of salt.
I am suspicious when Gina Miller is involved
If I put the raw ComRes poll in I get
If for example you have leading questions before the voter intention then that would skew the results but until we see the methodology we won’t know.
Labour share is firming up. I promise. This is NOT landslide territory out there by a long shot. The tories might squeak home but that's all it will be.
And throw a few more quid at the 1.4.
Edit: damn, 1.39.
ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.
IIRC, in 2017 2 million people registered during the campaign but when the final electoral role was released it transpired that 80% where all ready on the registered.
This time I think that 3.1m people registered to vote, but don't know when/if the final electoral role has been released and if so how much has it gone up?
Doesn't mean the Gina Miller poll is wrong, of course.
You'd attack me if I started doing the "ToryGov" thing. Don't be hypocrites.
And I do not question polls generally
After YouGov MRP on Tuesday, I will put up a test one for people to look at / comment.
Call it an outlier, that's absolutely fine. But don't attack the polling company themselves.
I never attack polling companies. It would be very easy for me to do so, bearing in mind they've all shown massive Tory leads throughout this campaign.
It's just sad to see hypocrisy yet again.
There's a Golden Rule about not believing the poll you don't like.
Labour share is definitely firming, that's all I know. And the LibDems are doing very well in Remainia.
Squeaky bum time if you're a tory.
Ms Rose
Could this be the reason?
https://mobile.twitter.com/thatginamiller/status/1203352419264090112
This supposedly is the source.
I suspect whoever posted it, has compared the wrong fieldwork dates. But I don't think that is ComRes's fault.
6% is roughly Cameron's lead when he won a majority in 2015
You’re supposed to have voter choice before any questions that could cause a bias .
If you don’t you have problems .
For example if you start off with a question like follows .
Which party do you think would help the homeless ?
And then the voter intention you’re likely to get a bias in favour of Labour , equally a question on security would help the Tories .
As for the dates, the press release and the dates of the previous poll are correct. So there is still the confusion about the +8 in two days.
Seems fair.
However, worth pointing out house effects do rather add up between the two extremes. Comres are Labour's best pollster from a chart I saw, a net 2.7% (little low on Con, little high on Lab) on the lead away from the average. Meanwhile, YG are 2.6% in the other direction (mostly from being very neg on Lab, about average on Con). Add that up, total is 5.3% difference on the Con-Lab headline.
Some of this may have disappeared with the BXP decision on where to stand though, I'm not sure. YG's house effect in particular seemed to produce a lot more Lab>BXP switchers than others (which isn't to say they will be proven wrong of course).
But YouGov was the only pollster to correctly predict the Corbyn surge in 2017.
You're making completely fabricated arguments to suit your originally wrong and unsustainable point.
I've said what I think will happen - but I have always said the polls don't agree with that.
I personally think it very unlikely the SNP’s vote are collapsing to Corbyn. I think this may be a weighting anomaly.
However, we will see.
Imagine if Corbyn had said this!