Lincoln , very close fight Just my two pence worth of thoughts, wrt Lincon. Have lived and worked there, so know a little about it. Pros and Cons, for Labour Karen Lee Pros: -Student vote - around 1500+ -Brexit Party to split Leave votes -Possible tactical voting from Greens and even LD Karen has been more hands on and visible in Lincon, with a more down to earth nature. Being a nurse also helps, given the way the public services are at the moment. Not a hugely leave area 55:45 unlike neighbouring Boston, which I think was like 70:30
Cons: -Her biggest threat comes from being strongly remain in a 55-45 leave Constituency. A lot of people feel let down, even calling her a traitor. How much of this would translate into votes, time will tell - As usual JC, but he was there in 2017, so people have got used to him, like a rash.
Conservative: Karl McCartney Pros: strongly Brexit, will he polarise the 55% vote? Tyen he wins Cons: quite a few , actually. -Has been MP for 7 years, so has a lot to answer, when he promises new stuff, like park and ride. -Lot of people have been hurt by 9 years of austerity, so again on the back foot - Has this impression of being arrogant and little too full of himself. Read his facebook page, with mostly negative comments from the public, v unsual in the North - Was involved in the expenses scandal as well as hiring his wife. People have not forgotten that
So, overall it's going to be a close fight, with Karen slightly ahead. However, if the Tories had selected a newbie, with not much baggage as Karl, then most likely the Tories had this in the bag. My verdict, close win for Karen, less than 1000 votes . Please feel free to disagree. The red wall in the North has been shaken. Whether it will crumble, will depend on many factors, including turnout and not only on Brexit alone
Thanks.
On the student vote; wasn't there some issue about turnout in Halls of Residence in 2017? If student turnout was very high in 2017 then that will be hard to maintain this time round, so it could be a 'con' not a 'pro'.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
All on Betfair for tiny stakes as I'm not a serious gambler... just for added interest on the night.
£2 at 9 on Conservatives to be in the 360-369 seats band. £2 at 17 on the Lib Dems to be in the 30-39 seats band. £2 lay at 2.2 on the Lib Dems being in the 10-19 seats band. £6 at 5.8 on Labour to be in the 169 seats or below band. £2.50 at 12 on Labour to be in the 170-179 seats band. £2.50 at 11 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band. another £4 at 21 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band. £2 at 12.5 on Labour to be in the 190-199 seats band.
Any bet puts you in the elite 20% of this site I would reckon.
Just a technical note on the two ComRes's which seems to have been largely overlooked. the Telegraph one is taken with the actual candidates, which means that in half the seats respondents were not offered a Brexit Party option. If we think the BXP vote nationally is 4%, and that BXP voters without a candidate will generally go for Boris, then that explains the difference entirely. It's probably more complicated than that, but I'd guess that's most of the difference.
What this means specifically is that the 8-point lead reflects Tories being safer in their own seats, and the 6-point lead is a reflection of the position elsewhere. We shouldn't knock ourselves out obsessing over one poll when there are lots more coming, but maybe this is helpful in understanding what's happening.
How does that explain the difference in Lab share?
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.
What's the evidence for saying that?
Oh I see - the Representation of the People Act 1985.
No excuse for Betfair, though, because it would still be in December 2019 ...
Could have two demises of the crown in quick succession.
That's one reason the majority of tories on here have been less bullish about chances of a landslide - despite positive noises from the north (england and wales) it disappointed last time. But even a disappointment has a high chance of some kind of majority, which is all they need.
Not sure why Wrexham and previously Grimsby targetted by 'individual polls' Just my fleeting impression of Wrexham, was there 10 days ago for a while. Met three types 1) Frothing Brexiters, ' We voted leave' We want focking out types-- Advantage Bojo 2) Those upset with austerity and poor services, including a creaking local hospital Adv Labour 3) those just fed up with everything and unwilling to commit., I dont know Candidates Labour A young Oxford educated lady, seemed to be on the ball Conservative Sarah Atherthon, not very active, at least on social sites. Followed the glorius example of her boss and missed an important all candidates interview. Pissed off some traditional Welsh speakers , when asked why leaflets were not printed in Welsh , with a Catherine Tate sort of reply, Am I Botherwered My impression Very close, and definitely not a fifteen point lead. All will depend on the turnout and those who have not commited. It takes a lot of effort to break age old traditions and habits.
>A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
Not sure why Wrexham and previously Grimsby targetted by 'individual polls' Just my fleeting impression of Wrexham, was there 10 days ago for a while. Met three types 1) Frothing Brexiters, ' We voted leave' We want focking out types-- Advantage Bojo 2) Those upset with austerity and poor services, including a creaking local hospital Adv Labour 3) those just fed up with everything and unwilling to commit., I dont know Candidates Labour A young Oxford educated lady, seemed to be on the ball Conservative Sarah Atherthon, not very active, at least on social sites. Followed the glorius example of her boss and missed an important all candidates interview. Pissed off some traditional Welsh speakers , when asked why leaflets were not printed in Welsh , with a Catherine Tate sort of reply, Am I Botherwered My impression Very close, and definitely not a fifteen point lead. All will depend on the turnout and those who have not commited. It takes a lot of effort to break age old traditions and habits.
On 2 - isn't health a devolved issue? In which case definitely not advantage Labour.
That's one reason the majority of tories on here have been less bullish about chances of a landslide - despite positive noises from the north (england and wales) it disappointed last time. But even a disappointment has a high chance of some kind of majority, which is all they need.
They won’t be bullish until the exit poll which shows a 60+ tory majority their job is to frighten every possible vote into voting Tory because we need more Tory robots.
>A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
The MRP poll predicts that without tactical voting Labour will win 224 seats, with the Scottish National Party on 45, the Lib Dems on 13 and the Green Party on one. @cazjwheeler
That's one reason the majority of tories on here have been less bullish about chances of a landslide - despite positive noises from the north (england and wales) it disappointed last time. But even a disappointment has a high chance of some kind of majority, which is all they need.
They won’t be bullish until the exit poll which shows a 60+ tory majority their job is to frighten every possible vote into voting Tory because we need more Tory robots.
You say that, but there were more people more bullish last time, it isn't always standard for peopple to show any caution whatsoever.
>A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
Is this MRP?
As mentioned I think that's almost exactly the maximum possible outcome for the Tories. Hung parliament is the other end of fair possibility.
Lincoln , very close fight Just my two pence worth of thoughts, wrt Lincon. Have lived and worked there, so know a little about it. Pros and Cons, for Labour Karen Lee Pros: -Student vote - around 1500+ -Brexit Party to split Leave votes -Possible tactical voting from Greens and even LD Karen has been more hands on and visible in Lincon, with a more down to earth nature. Being a nurse also helps, given the way the public services are at the moment. Not a hugely leave area 55:45 unlike neighbouring Boston, which I think was like 70:30
Cons: -Her biggest threat comes from being strongly remain in a 55-45 leave Constituency. A lot of people feel let down, even calling her a traitor. How much of this would translate into votes, time will tell - As usual JC, but he was there in 2017, so people have got used to him, like a rash.
Conservative: Karl McCartney Pros: strongly Brexit, will he polarise the 55% vote? Tyen he wins Cons: quite a few , actually. -Has been MP for 7 years, so has a lot to answer, when he promises new stuff, like park and ride. -Lot of people have been hurt by 9 years of austerity, so again on the back foot - Has this impression of being arrogant and little too full of himself. Read his facebook page, with mostly negative comments from the public, v unsual in the North - Was involved in the expenses scandal as well as hiring his wife. People have not forgotten that
So, overall it's going to be a close fight, with Karen slightly ahead. However, if the Tories had selected a newbie, with not much baggage as Karl, then most likely the Tories had this in the bag. My verdict, close win for Karen, less than 1000 votes . Please feel free to disagree. The red wall in the North has been shaken. Whether it will crumble, will depend on many factors, including turnout and not only on Brexit alone
I live in Lincoln, I've been here for 19 years. I agree that it will be a very close contest. I wouldn't like to call it either way other than to say that Labour (win or lose) will out-perform their national performance here as the seat is trending their way.
>A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
Is this MRP?
It is a MRP but not a YouGov MRP but a Focaldata MRP.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
All on Betfair for tiny stakes as I'm not a serious gambler... just for added interest on the night.
£2 at 9 on Conservatives to be in the 360-369 seats band. £2 at 17 on the Lib Dems to be in the 30-39 seats band. £2 lay at 2.2 on the Lib Dems being in the 10-19 seats band. £6 at 5.8 on Labour to be in the 169 seats or below band. £2.50 at 12 on Labour to be in the 170-179 seats band. £2.50 at 11 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band. another £4 at 21 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band. £2 at 12.5 on Labour to be in the 190-199 seats band.
Any bet puts you in the elite 20% of this site I would reckon.
>The variation in 2017 went from Labour up 2% in Qriously to Tories up 13% in BMG. ICM was at 12% for the Tories. Survation at 1% for the Tories. Was just as wild as this time really. Just we don't have Qriously polling this time to give ridiculous pro-Labour results.
I recall on polling day some showed a 10 point lead, were there any higher than that? So 15 is far out but perhaps not as far out as we think at first glance.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.
As it's his first offence, I think the punishment can be limited to three days' exile at ConHome.
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.
As it's his first offence, I think the punishment can be limited to three days' exile at ConHome.
While we are still in the EU that kind of punishment is not legal.
Damn it, that's the ECHR I'm getting mixed up again.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.
Somebody left their sense of humour at home today
My humour is just fine, I'm simply tired of reading your nonsense every time a new poll crops up.
Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?
Remain? I thought you voted Leave.
Not all Leavers are still leavers. Though I do not see leaving with a deal as a disaster.
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.
Somebody left their sense of humour at home today
My humour is just fine, I'm simply tired of reading your nonsense every time a new poll crops up.
You don't need to respond you know, you're not required to.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.
As it's his first offence, I think the punishment can be limited to three days' exile at ConHome.
While we are still in the EU that kind of punishment is not legal.
Damn it, that's the ECHR I'm getting mixed up again.
Actually, a better punishment would be to set his bedtime to 9.55pm on Thursday....
Out of interest I'm comparing a plot of Jeremy Corbyn's campaign visits and rallies to his from 2017.
In 2017 Corbyn campaigned almost evenly accross england, but did no campaigning south of the Thames, and very little in wales and scotland. Corbyn visited almost all places along the M62 and M56.
This time he is doing almost no campaigning in the space between London and Birmigham, and a lot more in wales, scotland, the east mildands and the rural north west. Corbyn has visited almost all places on the M1 from Nottingham to Sheffield.
Glaringly I don't think he has visited Lincon, Bedford and Norwich this time.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.
As it's his first offence, I think the punishment can be limited to three days' exile at ConHome.
While we are still in the EU that kind of punishment is not legal.
Damn it, that's the ECHR I'm getting mixed up again.
If we become the 51st State, OTOH, that will be barred under the Eighth Amendment.
Bets: Lab in Doncaster North @1.5 (!) - £15 Lab in Barnsley Central @1.3 - £10 - thought this was good value but suggestions today it might be far closer than it ought to be Lab in Aberavon @1.3 - £10 Lab in Canterbury @ 2.0 - £8 Lab in Lincoln @2.5 - £3 NOM @2.5 - £20 Con seats 290-299 @33 - £3 SNP in Aberdeen S @1.44 - £10 PC in Ronddha @13 - £5
All for fun - no overall strategy bar bets to ease the pain as Con falls short, again...
Comments
On the student vote; wasn't there some issue about turnout in Halls of Residence in 2017? If student turnout was very high in 2017 then that will be hard to maintain this time round, so it could be a 'con' not a 'pro'.
CON: 46% (-)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 13% (-)
GRN: 3% (+1)
BREX: 2% (-)
via @OpiniumResearch, 04 - 06 Dec
Chgs. w/ 29 Nov
More:
https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203386379226505221
I just do not believe it's 15 points - I am prepared to eat my hat
This could still be anything from a hung parliament to a 40 seat majority, I think.
ComRes (Miller) - Lab 36
ComRes (Telegraph) - Lab 33
I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......
*innocent face*
Hmmm
"Nothing has changed"
Perhaps the pollsters have all said fuck it and just plucked numbers out of thin air?
Fuck it, Labour super majority incoming
Just my fleeting impression of Wrexham, was there 10 days ago for a while.
Met three types
1) Frothing Brexiters, ' We voted leave' We want focking out types-- Advantage Bojo
2) Those upset with austerity and poor services, including a creaking local hospital Adv Labour
3) those just fed up with everything and unwilling to commit., I dont know
Candidates Labour A young Oxford educated lady, seemed to be on the ball
Conservative Sarah Atherthon, not very active, at least on social sites. Followed the glorius example of her boss and missed an important all candidates interview. Pissed off some traditional Welsh speakers , when asked why leaflets were not printed in Welsh , with a Catherine Tate sort of reply, Am I Botherwered
My impression Very close, and definitely not a fifteen point lead. All will depend on the turnout and those who have not commited. It takes a lot of effort to break age old traditions and habits.
Let's go to work
Is this MRP?
It is not the YouGov MRP.
It was commissioned by Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum.
Keep the champagne back on ice
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.
>The variation in 2017 went from Labour up 2% in Qriously to Tories up 13% in BMG. ICM was at 12% for the Tories. Survation at 1% for the Tories. Was just as wild as this time really. Just we don't have Qriously polling this time to give ridiculous pro-Labour results.
I recall on polling day some showed a 10 point lead, were there any higher than that? So 15 is far out but perhaps not as far out as we think at first glance.
Damn it, that's the ECHR I'm getting mixed up again.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1203391582587772931
In 2017 Corbyn campaigned almost evenly accross england, but did no campaigning south of the Thames, and very little in wales and scotland.
Corbyn visited almost all places along the M62 and M56.
This time he is doing almost no campaigning in the space between London and Birmigham, and a lot more in wales, scotland, the east mildands and the rural north west.
Corbyn has visited almost all places on the M1 from Nottingham to Sheffield.
Glaringly I don't think he has visited Lincon, Bedford and Norwich this time.
https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1203391306455822342
CON: 43% (+4)
LAB: 35% (+2)
LDEM: 22% (-4)
via @DeltaPoll, 02 - 06 Dec
Chgs. w/ GE2017
Lab in Doncaster North @1.5 (!) - £15
Lab in Barnsley Central @1.3 - £10 - thought this was good value but suggestions today it might be far closer than it ought to be
Lab in Aberavon @1.3 - £10
Lab in Canterbury @ 2.0 - £8
Lab in Lincoln @2.5 - £3
NOM @2.5 - £20
Con seats 290-299 @33 - £3
SNP in Aberdeen S @1.44 - £10
PC in Ronddha @13 - £5
All for fun - no overall strategy bar bets to ease the pain as Con falls short, again...
No conspiracy theory