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  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I think Con will poll closer to 43 than 41 looking at the leave vote overall
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    11% swing to take it. 61% leave in 2016. Outside shot, it falls on a 12% national lead I think
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Tories losing votes where they can afford to Labour losing votes where they can’t . Suits me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    If the Tories are up 8% in the North East, it certainly comes into play.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    Just a reminder that Newcastle declared first in 2017.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Are you mad?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Alistair said:

    Brom said:

    41-33 would be a comfortable majority. What’s the score?

    Only if you are comfortable modelling how the Brexit vote falls.

    That headline figure could hide a utterly inefficient Con vote.
    Isn't Yougov MRP the most likely indicator of that ?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    Well you don't actually know if the methodology was flawed until polling day. It's quite possible the new methodology ends up being wrong. We saw that in 2017.

    That's not an attempt to clutch at straws BTW, I suspect the new methodology is the correct one.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    camel said:

    Bad optics for Comres. Happy to take two simultaneous commissions, one of which they must know or at least believe to have a flawed methodology.

    I think it is just a case of you get what you pay for. I would imagine a poll that asks the question listing the candidates is more expensive than one that justs asks party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Margin of error. ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    11% swing to take it. 61% leave in 2016. Outside shot, it falls on a 12% national lead I think
    I'm expecting the swing to the Conservatives to be well above average in County Durham.
  • 8 point lead likely to be a bigger majority than 14 to be honest. Think nearer 30.

    Though I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a majority of around 14, conversely.
  • nunu2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Are you mad?
    Well they've gone from 10 to 8, do you not think's a drop?
  • Within MOE, they might not have moved at all, it's worth noting. Or, we're already in Hung Parliament territory!

    Aren't polls fun!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    2.30am before the first labour hold ;)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    That looks very encouraging for Con - share up where they need it most to gain seats. Implies flat or down where they have safe seats.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Panic!
  • If you want yet more straw clutching, you can say the 6 point lead poll has a better methodology because you like this poll.

    Am I doing it right?

    By George, I think he’s got it!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Brom said:

    Have election maps given Labour massively false hope? Lol

    Will firm up any people who thought this was a done deal and Labour no where near.

    I was out for a meal and beers with a friend last night - he has gone from not bothering to vote 4 weeks ago to certain to vote to keep Corbyn out last night.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    11% swing to take it. 61% leave in 2016. Outside shot, it falls on a 12% national lead I think
    I'm expecting the swing to the Conservatives to be well above average in County Durham.
    Paging ms Pidcock
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Margin of error. ;)
    OMG. It's a real roller-coaster of emotion tonight, isn't it? And the evening has barely begun.
  • Chris said:

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Panic!
    We're already within HP territory, it's the MOE! I love this game!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    nunu2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Are you mad?
    Well they've gone from 10 to 8, do you not think's a drop?
    You could argue from that data that they've gone from 7 to 8 - and that's not a drop!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Seen the latest Tory leaflets today, going heavy on Corbyn - aimed at scaring LibDem-backing Tories to return to the fold. The big squeeze will be a feature of the final days. I can see LibDems ending up sub-10.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    Just a reminder that Newcastle declared first in 2017.
    ... and that if the Tories really have gained any of the Sunderland seats, the inevitable recount will ensure it isn't the first to declare.

    Although the words "recount in Sunderland" would probably be enough to break this forum, anyway.
  • To be fair, 6 to 8 is well within MOE anyway, in all seriousness
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Margin of error. ;)
    OMG. It's a real roller-coaster of emotion tonight, isn't it? And the evening has barely begun.
    Third nappy already.
  • TudorRose said:

    nunu2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Last four conventional ComRes polls over last two weeks (exc Miller):

    Con +7
    Con +10
    Con +10
    Con +8

    So it does seem like the Tory lead has dropped
    Are you mad?
    Well they've gone from 10 to 8, do you not think's a drop?
    You could argue from that data that they've gone from 7 to 8 - and that's not a drop!
    You could argue that.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    11% swing to take it. 61% leave in 2016. Outside shot, it falls on a 12% national lead I think
    I'm expecting the swing to the Conservatives to be well above average in County Durham.
    Sunderland isn't in County Durham.
  • RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    Just a reminder that Newcastle declared first in 2017.
    Sunderland anything having a recount would be a sensation, until someone confirmed it was over a possible lost deposit...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Seen the latest Tory leaflets today, going heavy on Corbyn - aimed at scaring LibDem-backing Tories to return to the fold. The big squeeze will be a feature of the final days. I can see LibDems ending up sub-10.

    Seats or percentage points?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.
  • RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    Just a reminder that Newcastle declared first in 2017.
    Yeah but this year they’ll be busy with the recount. ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    2.30am before the first labour hold ;)
    Recount at Bootle.....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited December 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    11% swing to take it. 61% leave in 2016. Outside shot, it falls on a 12% national lead I think
    I'm expecting the swing to the Conservatives to be well above average in County Durham.
    Sunderland isn't in County Durham.
    It pretty much is. Just a small town in Co. Durham in fact. Tyne and Wear does not exist in any real capacity anymore.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    MikeL said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    That looks very encouraging for Con - share up where they need it most to gain seats. Implies flat or down where they have safe seats.
    Yes, but is they do get 42/43% same as last time then they must be down somewhere. Perhaps they will get hammered in London and Liverpool and Central Manchester because there is not a lot of the country left after the regions the Tele says they are up in.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    As a Labour supporter I’ve accepted the horrors of 5 years more of Bozo but it’s fun seeing some Tories in here and the drama over the polls .

  • MikeL said:

    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.

    MoE surely.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    MikeL said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    That looks very encouraging for Con - share up where they need it most to gain seats. Implies flat or down where they have safe seats.
    Yes, but is they do get 42/43% same as last time then they must be down somewhere. Perhaps they will get hammered in London and Liverpool and Central Manchester because there is not a lot of the country left after the regions the Tele says they are up in.
    Please don't! My heart - my heart ...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Remember the ONLY polls that matter are those that are in line with your hopes for GE2019

    Smithson's Law, isn't it? :D
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    Just a reminder that Newcastle declared first in 2017.
    ... and that if the Tories really have gained any of the Sunderland seats, the inevitable recount will ensure it isn't the first to declare.

    Although the words "recount in Sunderland" would probably be enough to break this forum, anyway.
    No. Recount in Islington (either) would do that!
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    11% swing to take it. 61% leave in 2016. Outside shot, it falls on a 12% national lead I think
    I'm expecting the swing to the Conservatives to be well above average in County Durham.
    Sunderland isn't in County Durham.
    It pretty much is. Just a small town in Co. Durham in fact. Tyne and Wear does not exist in any real capacity anymore.
    I know, bloody Thatcher. I grew up in Heaton. But Sunderland still isn't in Co Durham.
  • Remember the ONLY polls that matter are those that are in line with your hopes for GE2019

    So that would be the last Euro elections then? 😉
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    MikeL said:

    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.

    MoE surely.
    What is the poisson error on 2 anyway? :)
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Seen the latest Tory leaflets today, going heavy on Corbyn - aimed at scaring LibDem-backing Tories to return to the fold. The big squeeze will be a feature of the final days. I can see LibDems ending up sub-10.

    One surprise for me is the lack of coverage of the LD's in the media, apart from when a load of nutters stick themselves to their bus, there is just nothing. I would have thought the LD's would have done something to get attention. Perhaps suing the media is not a good idea.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Seen the latest Tory leaflets today, going heavy on Corbyn - aimed at scaring LibDem-backing Tories to return to the fold. The big squeeze will be a feature of the final days. I can see LibDems ending up sub-10.

    Tory 60 majority labour sub 200 no need for anybody to be squeezed, no need to put any more of the Tory robots into parliament. The corbyn fear factor is bollox he ain’t going to come anywhere near winning or depriving them of their ill earned majority.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Why would one expect any Neil effect?

    It had an effect on me. Am I alone? Well, yes - at the end of the day we all are - but still. Why would it NOT have an effect?
    The effect being that you would no longer vote Conservative? lol!
  • ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?

    ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.

    Nothing in the BPC that prevents you from asking questions in a different way/order.
    But doing that will cause a skew of the results .

    You’re supposed to have voter choice before any questions that could cause a bias .

    If you don’t you have problems .

    For example if you start off with a question like follows .

    Which party do you think would help the homeless ?

    And then the voter intention you’re likely to get a bias in favour of Labour , equally a question on security would help the Tories .
    Easy answer. None of them. Homeless people don’t have votes, so politicians don’t care about them.
    If they did, they'd be a key demographic in Dawn Butler's seat.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    2.30am before the first labour hold ;)
    Recount at Bootle.....
    I'm hearing that in Wansbeck Ian Lavery is lamping passers by in the face and muttering 'never blue never blue' into an empty bean tin
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Brom said:

    41-33 would be a comfortable majority. What’s the score?

    Only if you are comfortable modelling how the Brexit vote falls.

    That headline figure could hide a utterly inefficient Con vote.
    Isn't Yougov MRP the most likely indicator of that ?
    Yes, the thing that made them so accurate in 2017 was near flawless modelling of what happened to the UKIP vote.
  • If we see more polls with a 6-8 point gap, then I'm going to increase my prediction of a Hung Parliament to 55%.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85

    If we see more polls with a 6-8 point gap, then I'm going to increase my prediction of a Hung Parliament to 55%.

    Better get on Betfair quick, you can get 3.8 at the moment.
  • RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.

    MoE surely.
    What is the poisson error on 2 anyway? :)
    I hated stats. If you can’t draw a straight line through all the points I don’t want to know about it. (Using log scales or raising one term so some power is of course fine)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Just a reminder that on the eve of the election we had polls ranging from Con +13 to Lab +2 :p
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    MikeL said:

    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.

    MoE surely.
    It's a great day for the reds
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Brom said:

    41-33 would be a comfortable majority. What’s the score?

    Only if you are comfortable modelling how the Brexit vote falls.

    That headline figure could hide a utterly inefficient Con vote.
    Isn't Yougov MRP the most likely indicator of that ?
    Yes, the thing that made them so accurate in 2017 was near flawless modelling of what happened to the UKIP vote.
    The tory vote is very efficient simply because they are cleaning up the Leave vote.
  • RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.

    MoE surely.
    What is the poisson error on 2 anyway? :)
    I hated stats. If you can’t draw a straight line through all the points I don’t want to know about it. (Using log scales or raising one term so some power is of course fine)
    It’s the real secret of physics. Draw a straight line through them and let everyone assume you did something more clever.
  • I hadn't realised that Sir Tony Robinson alias Baldrick had quit the Labour Party after 45 years membership
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    nico67 said:

    As a Labour supporter I’ve accepted the horrors of 5 years more of Bozo but it’s fun seeing some Tories in here and the drama over the polls .

    I'm amazed that soo many think that 'Get Brext done+ Bojo + The fear of Corbyn = A massive Tory victory. The Tories have pissed off large sections of society, mainly the voiceless and the vulnerable. For them, Brexit in 2016 was a means of paying back and that still stands. Labour is going to pull significant votes from the 'misfits' or people the Etonian Bojo looks down up. Definitely more than 35% of the votes. Betfair is currently labour on 35% plus at 2/1. Recommended, that and Lincoln Labour
    My top tips, not as a person interested in politics but as someone who wants to beat the bookies and say thank you to PB too.
    Grateful to someone here, don't know his name, who recommended City of Chester/ Labour in 2017- at nearly 5/1 I think. Made a killing that time, Thank you Sir.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    If we see more polls with a 6-8 point gap, then I'm going to increase my prediction of a Hung Parliament to 55%.

    And if you see more 10-12% polls, you'll reduce the chances of a HP?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    That means there’s likely to be a lot of others in that poll .
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I hadn't realised that Sir Tony Robinson alias Baldrick had quit the Labour Party after 45 years membership

    One of many

  • nunu2 said:

    If we see more polls with a 6-8 point gap, then I'm going to increase my prediction of a Hung Parliament to 55%.

    And if you see more 10-12% polls, you'll reduce the chances of a HP?
    So if we see no overall change in most of the polls, I'll keep it at 50%. If we see a decent number showing the Tories extending their lead, I will drop to 45%.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    melcf said:

    nico67 said:

    As a Labour supporter I’ve accepted the horrors of 5 years more of Bozo but it’s fun seeing some Tories in here and the drama over the polls .

    I'm amazed that soo many think that 'Get Brext done+ Bojo + The fear of Corbyn = A massive Tory victory. The Tories have pissed off large sections of society, mainly the voiceless and the vulnerable. For them, Brexit in 2016 was a means of paying back and that still stands. Labour is going to pull significant votes from the 'misfits' or people the Etonian Bojo looks down up. Definitely more than 35% of the votes. Betfair is currently labour on 35% plus at 2/1. Recommended, that and Lincoln Labour
    My top tips, not as a person interested in politics but as someone who wants to beat the bookies and say thank you to PB too.
    Grateful to someone here, don't know his name, who recommended City of Chester/ Labour in 2017- at nearly 5/1 I think. Made a killing that time, Thank you Sir.
    Sorry, bet 365 offering 2/1 on Labour more than 35% vote share. If you see 2017, their vote share has ALWAYS been discounted. I think it's most likely going to be 38-40% by the 12th.
  • So methodology question, why would candidate prompt make such a large difference?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Quite clever from Comres. Do two polls using different methodologies and increase your chance of being closest to the actual result.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Brom said:

    1.36!

    1.40!!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    O/T One for Morris Dancer. I was just reading about the marching song that Caesar's men sung about him at his Triumph.

    "Caesar subdued all the Gauls. Nicomedes Caesar.

    Caesar who subdued all the Gauls is triumphant.

    Nicomedes who subdued Caesar fails to triumph."
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TudorRose said:

    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    The scenes on here if the first seat of the night is a shock Tory gain. :p
    Just a reminder that Newcastle declared first in 2017.
    ... and that if the Tories really have gained any of the Sunderland seats, the inevitable recount will ensure it isn't the first to declare.

    Although the words "recount in Sunderland" would probably be enough to break this forum, anyway.
    No. Recount in Islington (either) would do that!
    We can dream lol
  • Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    MikeL said:

    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.

    City are not bothered about the league this year. All about Europe. Opposite for Liverpool. Backing Liverpool for the title is as close to a risk free 1.25 bet as you will see.

    Con majority OTOH? ...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    From the Tele

    "The proportion of respondents planning to vote for the Conservatives was above the national average in Yorkshire and Humberside (42 per cent) and the East Midlands (44 per cent) as well as the South East and South West, which are home to many of the party's traditional supporters.

    In the North East and North West, 39 per cent and 32 per cent respectively said they were planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 31 per cent in the North East who said they voted for the Tories in 2017, and 28 per cent in the North West. Labour's share of support was highest in the North East, at 45 per cent, according to the poll."

    Interesting.

    IMHO, Sunderland Central offers some quite tempting odds.
    11% swing to take it. 61% leave in 2016. Outside shot, it falls on a 12% national lead I think
    I'm expecting the swing to the Conservatives to be well above average in County Durham.
    Sunderland isn't in County Durham.
    It pretty much is. Just a small town in Co. Durham in fact. Tyne and Wear does not exist in any real capacity anymore.
    I know, bloody Thatcher. I grew up in Heaton. But Sunderland still isn't in Co Durham.
    It's not under the auspices of Durham County Council, certainly. Or Durham police. But I'm still comfortable with saying Sunderland is in County Durham just as I'd have no qualms about saying Wigan is in Lancashire or Solihull in Warwickshire. Names of counties can be used to describe traditional 'terroirs' as well as precise administrative areas - just as 'summer' can be used to mean the meteorological or astronomical term, or British Summer Time, or any time the weather is vaguely pleasant.

    As you enter Blackburn, you are welcomed to 'Blackburn - a Lancashire Town' - despite the fact it now sits outwith Lancashire County Council. As a slogan it smacks of 'they told us we needed a slogan but we really couldn't be bothered', but it shows you where the town is at emotionally.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Remember the ONLY polls that matter are those that are in line with your hopes for GE2019

    Finally I understand the methodology behind your letter
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Shit your pants time!!!
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    On Betfair the liquidity has dried up.a.lot
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    So methodology question, why would candidate prompt make such a large difference?

    Reminds waverers that they don't have to personally vote for Boris Johnson as PM?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    The effect being that you would no longer vote Conservative? lol!

    Well let's say it removed the last scintilla of doubt in my mind.
  • I hadn't realised that Sir Tony Robinson alias Baldrick had quit the Labour Party after 45 years membership

    During my recent two weeks off due to illness I watched a lot of old Time Teams: his enthusiasm in those is great. It always looks like he is really enjoying it.
    Presumably he quit for the same reason so many others have.
  • Note to clear up the confusion re: today's @SavantaComRes polling, one showing Con +8, and one Con +6:

    Con +8 published by a newspaper (FW: 04 - 05 Dec); Con +6 published by 'Remain United' (FW: 02 - 05 Dec).

    The one published by Remain United did not prompt candidates.
  • tlg86 said:

    Quite clever from Comres. Do two polls using different methodologies and increase your chance of being closest to the actual result.

    Isn't that literally what YouGov did in 2017?
  • Sir_Geoff said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    Dodgy because it gives you an answer you don't like?

    ComRes are members of the BPC, I highly doubt there is anything dodgy at play here.

    Nothing in the BPC that prevents you from asking questions in a different way/order.
    But doing that will cause a skew of the results .

    You’re supposed to have voter choice before any questions that could cause a bias .

    If you don’t you have problems .

    For example if you start off with a question like follows .

    Which party do you think would help the homeless ?

    And then the voter intention you’re likely to get a bias in favour of Labour , equally a question on security would help the Tories .
    Easy answer. None of them. Homeless people don’t have votes, so politicians don’t care about them.
    If they did, they'd be a key demographic in Dawn Butler's seat.
    Apparently she has 75% of them in her constituency
  • nunu2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Brom said:

    41-33 would be a comfortable majority. What’s the score?

    Only if you are comfortable modelling how the Brexit vote falls.

    That headline figure could hide a utterly inefficient Con vote.
    Isn't Yougov MRP the most likely indicator of that ?
    Yes, the thing that made them so accurate in 2017 was near flawless modelling of what happened to the UKIP vote.
    The tory vote is very efficient simply because they are cleaning up the Leave vote.
    I suspect the Tory vote is becoming less efficient as they will be piling up huge majorities in leave voting bits of their English heartlands and also doing a lot better in Labour's leave voting heartlands but only converting some of them into victories. They will also have more second places in Scotland. Piling up votes in safe Tory seats will be helped by the exit of BXP from Tory held seats. Labour by contrast will be piling up less votes in their Northern heartlands although they may be piling up more votes in safe seats in inner city seats.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    tlg86 said:

    Quite clever from Comres. Do two polls using different methodologies and increase your chance of being closest to the actual result.

    The Yougov technique
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    nico67 said:

    As a Labour supporter I’ve accepted the horrors of 5 years more of Bozo but it’s fun seeing some Tories in here and the drama over the polls .

    I'm amazed that soo many think that 'Get Brext done+ Bojo + The fear of Corbyn = A massive Tory victory. The Tories have pissed off large sections of society, mainly the voiceless and the vulnerable. For them, Brexit in 2016 was a means of paying back and that still stands. Labour is going to pull significant votes from the 'misfits' or people the Etonian Bojo looks down up. Definitely more than 35% of the votes. Betfair is currently labour on 35% plus at 2/1. Recommended, that and Lincoln Labour
    My top tips, not as a person interested in politics but as someone who wants to beat the bookies and say thank you to PB too.
    Grateful to someone here, don't know his name, who recommended City of Chester/ Labour in 2017- at nearly 5/1 I think. Made a killing that time, Thank you Sir.
    Sorry, bet 365 offering 2/1 on Labour more than 35% vote share. If you see 2017, their vote share has ALWAYS been discounted. I think it's most likely going to be 38-40% by the 12th.
    Any evidence to support that? Or your tips on Lincoln? Genuine question; do you have reliable sources?
  • So until polling day, either poll could be right. Fun!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.

    MoE surely.
    What is the poisson error on 2 anyway? :)
    Er, it's 2. By definition.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Brom said:

    1.36!

    1.40!!
    1.41!!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.

    MoE surely.
    What is the poisson error on 2 anyway? :)
    Er, it's 2. By definition.
    I thought it was 1.4 :p
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    So methodology question, why would candidate prompt make such a large difference?

    Yorkshire Party and North East Party might make a small difference.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited December 2019
    The 8 point ComRes is more recent than the 6 point so could do changes from the 6 point, ie:

    Con -1
    Lab -3

    LOL.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    Sean_F said:

    O/T One for Morris Dancer. I was just reading about the marching song that Caesar's men sung about him at his Triumph.

    "Caesar subdued all the Gauls. Nicomedes Caesar.

    Caesar who subdued all the Gauls is triumphant.

    Nicomedes who subdued Caesar fails to triumph."

    I'm not sure that's an accurate translation tbh...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?

    I have very limited means so am having just a few fun small constituency bets. So far I am on Tories to gain exeter, perth and north perthshire and Edinburgh SW. I'll be sticking half a dozen more on as we approach polling day but Sunderland Central, Wansbeck and NW Durham tempt me
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    MikeL said:

    Man U annihilating Man C so far. 2-0 so far and it could easily be 5-0.

    Seven British (English? - not sure about McTominay) players in United's starting line-up too. After three decades of antipathy to Utd, I'm starting to actually rather enjoy it when they win.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?

    No because then you would see the grisly true inner workings of my mind :smile:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    MikeL said:

    The 8 point ComRes is more recent than the 6 point so could do changes from the 6 point, ie:

    Con -1
    Lab -3

    LOL.

    Surge!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Endillion said:

    So methodology question, why would candidate prompt make such a large difference?

    Reminds waverers that they don't have to personally vote for Boris Johnson as PM?
    I fail to understand how anyone can vote Tory or labour neither offer a positive sane view for the future or have any credibility with their leaders or top teams
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    If you want yet more straw clutching, you can say the 6 point lead poll has a better methodology because you like this poll.

    Am I doing it right?

    By George, I think he’s got it!
    And a 2% change is MoE when going in the 'wrong' direction and evidence of a surge when going in the 'right' direction.
This discussion has been closed.