They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Tory stay-at-homes due to May’s social care policy disaster. Turning out this time for the Tories and Brexit..
80% would be the highest since 1964...
People Loathe Corbyn and Boris. More loathe Corbyn than Boris andwith good reason. Turnout amongst the older age groups is likely to go up as it did in the referendum.. in proportion to youthful voters
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Because they hate the thought of what a marxist government will do to the life chances of their children and grandchildren? Just musing.
Opinium reckon turnout for this group will be its highest since at least 1964? Really?
Why not? They are faced with a more extremist programme for government than any since goodness knows when. They can remember the chaos of the late 1960's and the 1970's very well, and Labour governments in those days were not run by smash capitalism marxists. They think it will be much worse under Corbyn so why visit that on their children and grandchildren. They'll vote in droves to stop it.
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Interesting
More than last time? The youth were literally chanting his name in 2017.
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Three reasons would be (i)fear of a Corbyn Marxist Government (ii) an ageing population and (iii) an increased use, especially amongst the elderly in winter of the postal vote facility.
So when tuition fees get their news cycle, which they will, Labour will improve in the polls. We're not at Peak Labour.
Tuition fees have been in the news cycle for over two years as Labour's policy hasn't changed since 2017.
I don't see tuition fees being a game changer.
Labour have almost all the student vote, and most students think (rightly or wrongly) that Corby will be writing off their debt anyhow. I can't see it shifting any more votes now for Labour.
Labour need to bribe a bit more widely. Free social care is probably what they should go for, looking at the demographic they need to win.
I've just applied YouGov's poll results to Baxter's forecasting software, including the adjustment for Scottish seats and despite the Tories' headline lead of 9% in this poll, I am shocked to discover that this results in their achieving a majority of just FOUR seats as follows: Con ....... 327 Lab ....... 241 LibDems .. 15 SNP .......... 45 Brexit ........ 0 Greens ...... 1 Plaid ......... 3 N.I. ......... 18 Total ..... 650 Con Maj .... 4
Baxter was overoptimistic with Tory landslides before, now too pessimistic.
The updated YouGov would still give a Tory majority of 40 using the YouGov MRP model
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
We shall have to wait and see what happens on the big day.
Don't forget that a lot of oldies vote by post, and will already have done so.
By contrast, the apparent last minute surge in voter registrations, which was apparently skewed towards younger voters, does not do the job on its own. You can register to vote online, but if you've not done so well in advance then clearly you won't be getting a postal vote and you'll have to go out and put graphite to ballot paper.
It's December, it'll be cold and dark, and young people have an established record for turning out in substantially lower percentages than old ones. What's the betting that, come the day, a lot of them can't be arsed?
I've just applied YouGov's poll results to Baxter's forecasting software, including the adjustment for Scottish seats and despite the Tories' headline lead of 9% in this poll, I am shocked to discover that this results in their achieving a majority of just FOUR seats as follows: Con ....... 327 Lab ....... 241 LibDems .. 15 SNP .......... 45 Brexit ........ 0 Greens ...... 1 Plaid ......... 3 N.I. ......... 18 Total ..... 650 Con Maj .... 4
I find that very hard to believe considering 2.5% lead was so close to a majority, why would 9% only just get it?
I've just applied YouGov's poll results to Baxter's forecasting software, including the adjustment for Scottish seats and despite the Tories' headline lead of 9% in this poll, I am shocked to discover that this results in their achieving a majority of just FOUR seats as follows: Con ....... 327 Lab ....... 241 LibDems .. 15 SNP .......... 45 Brexit ........ 0 Greens ...... 1 Plaid ......... 3 N.I. ......... 18 Total ..... 650 Con Maj .... 4
I find that very hard to believe considering 2.5% lead was so close to a majority, why would 9% only just get it?
BXP not standing in Tory seats means there's a lot of extra votes piled up there.
My main concern is that what actually happens is (b) Corbyn will go and his successor will be somebody as extreme or worse, but without the reputational baggage.
If Labour really does become more moderate, and we end up with a properly costed and realistic soft Left manifesto next time around, then I would be mightily relieved. I might even vote for it. But if something sounds too good to be true it typically is.
With 14 years in Government and despite numerous re-inventions, the Conservatives in 2024 will I think look tired and out of touch. Against a new, moderate Labour leader there will only be one winner and for the slow-witted on here, it won't be the Tories.
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Interesting
More than last time? The youth were literally chanting his name in 2017.
Yes, perhaps not for him directly but definitely to get the Tories out. And most see him as the vehicle to do that. At worst they're luke warm on him in my experience, at best, very keen. I have had people who I wouldn't think would care, now interested. I think it will be very interesting.
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Interesting
No, not really at all. It's probably your friends pretending to be happy so you don't bang on about him.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Interesting
No, not really at all. It's probably your friends pretending to be happy so you don't bang on about him.
In truth I don't tend to discuss my views with my friends, it's what I've overheard. Frankly you don't know much about me or people I talk to, so you'll forgive me if I ignore what you're saying in this particular case
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
Johnson looks like his mantra is going to be tougher on crime generally and even more so for terrorist suspects .
Corbyn is going to go for the problems caused by probation cuts etc , the more interesting added point will be about failed overseas interventions, given he was against the Iraq War .
Hard to know how the terrorist attack will play out with voters , there are dangers to both the main parties .
My main concern is that what actually happens is (b) Corbyn will go and his successor will be somebody as extreme or worse, but without the reputational baggage.
If Labour really does become more moderate, and we end up with a properly costed and realistic soft Left manifesto next time around, then I would be mightily relieved. I might even vote for it. But if something sounds too good to be true it typically is.
With 14 years in Government and despite numerous re-inventions, the Conservatives in 2024 will I think look tired and out of touch. Against a new, moderate Labour leader there will only be one winner and for the slow-witted on here, it won't be the Tories.
I tried to explain that to Hyufd earlier.
Very few will predict with confidence what will happen is the next 10 days. It's a little early to discuss any election in 2024, even if there is one.
My main concern is that what actually happens is (b) Corbyn will go and his successor will be somebody as extreme or worse, but without the reputational baggage. If Labour really does become more moderate, and we end up with a properly costed and realistic soft Left manifesto next time around, then I would be mightily relieved. I might even vote for it. But if something sounds too good to be true it typically is.
With 14 years in Government and despite numerous re-inventions, the Conservatives in 2024 will I think look tired and out of touch. Against a new, moderate Labour leader there will only be one winner and for the slow-witted on here, it won't be the Tories.
I tried to explain that to Hyufd earlier.
I am not sure that his software permits him to consider any kind of Tory defeat
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
I've just applied YouGov's poll results to Baxter's forecasting software, including the adjustment for Scottish seats and despite the Tories' headline lead of 9% in this poll, I am shocked to discover that this results in their achieving a majority of just FOUR seats as follows: Con ....... 327 Lab ....... 241 LibDems .. 15 SNP .......... 45 Brexit ........ 0 Greens ...... 1 Plaid ......... 3 N.I. ......... 18 Total ..... 650 Con Maj .... 4
What if you put in BMG? Whom is Baxter?
Baxter = Electoral Calculus
I have heard in the past that the Electoral Calculus model is based primarily on UNS and might not cope well if we have an unusual election in which swing varies significantly on a regional basis. Is this correct? If so then, should the Tories do just a little better in the Midlands and a little worse in the South than the national VI suggests, this could work significantly in their favour.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
Because of 2 things probably. 1: The answers that are being given to the pollsters. 2: Historical turnout.
One reason the pollsters were wrong last time was the exceptionally low turnout for the elderly and exceptionally high turnout by the young. Pollsters adjusted their adjustments after the last election because of this I believe so they aren't downweighting the young by as much as they would have previously.
My main concern is that what actually happens is (b) Corbyn will go and his successor will be somebody as extreme or worse, but without the reputational baggage.
If Labour really does become more moderate, and we end up with a properly costed and realistic soft Left manifesto next time around, then I would be mightily relieved. I might even vote for it. But if something sounds too good to be true it typically is.
With 14 years in Government and despite numerous re-inventions, the Conservatives in 2024 will I think look tired and out of touch. Against a new, moderate Labour leader there will only be one winner and for the slow-witted on here, it won't be the Tories.
I tried to explain that to Hyufd earlier.
Labour won in 1997 because after two defeats under the leftwing Kinnock they picked the charismatic centrist Blair.
I cannot see Corbyn Labour picking a moderate to succeed Corbyn even after another defeat under Corbyn.
If the Tories won in 2024 after 14 years in power it would be a win of astonishing, historic and epic proportions giving the longest period of Tory rule since Lord Liverpool 200 years ago which was even pre Great Reform Act, so it is unlikely but if Labour stick with the hard left it would be possible unless the LDs can overtake them, maybe under Chuka
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
Guildford is a decent bet for a LD gain I would think. Risk of the ex-Tory splitting the Tory vote makes it a decent chance and it has been LD before.
Although MRP suggests otherwise, I still think we might see something of a localised LD surge
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Interesting
There seems to be less enthusiasm than there was last time. And Labour seem to be banging on about how much they want to give to Boomer women not the young.
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
If enough "Labour Leavers" decide other things are more important to them than a) Brexit and b) Jeremy Corbyn not being the Messiah, the Tories are screwed.
Have to say I think the Labour posters in the North saying "Come home to Labour" are right on target.
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
Obama used to fly around in an Osprey. Three of them did a practice run over Lord's during a county match back in 2016. I assume Trump needs a motorcade to get about the West End. I'm sure he'll be well received by commuters, xmas shoppers and couriers. Not to mention journalists hanging onto his every word.
The US President’s travel plans are a complete nightmare to anyone who comes close to them. Meanwhile two or three cars and half a dozen police bikes (and some very funky traffic lights) can get our own PM from Downing St to Northolt in about 15 minutes.
Saw two helicopters flying in close formation above Holland Park earlier today.
Because of 2 things probably. 1: The answers that are being given to the pollsters. 2: Historical turnout.
One reason the pollsters were wrong last time was the exceptionally low turnout for the elderly and exceptionally high turnout by the young. Pollsters adjusted their adjustments after the last election because of this I believe so they aren't downweighting the young by as much as they would have previously.
this article says that the "youthquake" of 2017 is a myth
"Using the best available evidence—the British Election Study (BES) face-to-face surveys—we find no evidence of a surge in youth turnout at the 2017 election."
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
But the corollary is that the LibDems must be doing proportionally worse elsewhere if the opinion polls are in the right area. I'm looking at Farron and Swinson to be possible casualties on the night.
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
Housing affordability and student debt. I'd like to see some the 18-24 group broken down into students/graduates and non-students/graduates. Also between home owners and renters.
Or put more broadly, young people generally see their lives won't be as good as their parent's.
Or their grammar
In other words society is going downhill. There really isn't much space to contest that assessment if your statement is solid, so long as young people aren't kidding themselves. And given that young people are bombarded with advertising as never before, and advertising doesn't usually encourage its target markets to be pessimistic about their futures, they aren't kidding themselves.
How many in that demographic have switched away from Labour to another party or WV? What proportion of old gits care about what those in that demographic feel like and want? Quite a lot of us. They're our children.
Abolishing tuition fees was a huge votewinner for Labour in 2017. Labour are round about where they were in the polls at this stage last time, perhaps a touch (1-2%) worse, at least until tonight's YouGov comes out.
What can the Tories offer to young people? Getting Brexit Done? You only have to say it to realise how ludicrous it is. Brexit doesn't pay your university fees, get you out of debt, or get you on the housing ladder.
So when tuition fees get their news cycle, which they will, Labour will improve in the polls. We're not at Peak Labour.
Tuition fees have been in the news cycle for over two years as Labour's policy hasn't changed since 2017.
Not the way most people define "news cycle" they haven't. I mean if they make it to the headlines for 1-2 days as an election issue, as they did last time, and as the issues of free broadband and the future of the NHS have so far this time.
I have heard in the past that the Electoral Calculus model is based primarily on UNS and might not cope well if we have an unusual election in which swing varies significantly on a regional basis. Is this correct? If so then, should the Tories do just a little better in the Midlands and a little worse in the South than the national VI suggests, this could work significantly in their favour.
My suspicion is that the existing electoral model are useless this time around. This election has a number of unique features such as - BOTH leaders loathed and disliked by large numbers of voters - Brexit is colouring people's choices differently from the usual left/right split Those two factors alone should be enough to derail UNS and the other polling models.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
If enough "Labour Leavers" decide other things are more important to them than a) Brexit and b) Jeremy Corbyn not being the Messiah, the Tories are screwed.
Have to say I think the Labour posters in the North saying "Come home to Labour" are right on target.
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
If enough "Labour Leavers" decide other things are more important to them than a) Brexit and b) Jeremy Corbyn not being the Messiah, the Tories are screwed.
Have to say I think the Labour posters in the North saying "Come home to Labour" are right on target.
And the Tory slogan of 'Get Brexit Done' remains the best way to counter it in Labour Leave seats
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
Johnson looks like his mantra is going to be tougher on crime generally and even more so for terrorist suspects .
Corbyn is going to go for the problems caused by probation cuts etc , the more interesting added point will be about failed overseas interventions, given he was against the Iraq War .
Hard to know how the terrorist attack will play out with voters , there are dangers to both the main parties .
Least the Tories aren't cutting police numbers this time round. You don't get (Aside from the military) a more naturally Tory leaning public sector worker group, and also an area of historic strength for the blues was turned on its head last election with the terrible events of 2017. The narrative this time round is much more neutral.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
I'm afraid you'll find Sutton is not just "leaning" Conservative but absolutely supine.
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
But the corollary is that the LibDems must be doing proportionally worse elsewhere if the opinion polls are in the right area. I'm looking at Farron and Swinson to be possible casualties on the night.
You are overlooking that the LDs are 6% higher nationally than in 2017 (at present), so even after taking account of a differential performance in this area the candidates elsewhere should easily improve on 2017. Of course, in individual constituencies local effects and brexit leanings may impact and Farron may be the most vulnerable. But anyone who thinks Swinson will lose is a triumph of hope over sanity.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
If enough "Labour Leavers" decide other things are more important to them than a) Brexit and b) Jeremy Corbyn not being the Messiah, the Tories are screwed.
Have to say I think the Labour posters in the North saying "Come home to Labour" are right on target.
And the Tory slogan of 'Get Brexit Done' remains the best way to counter it in Labour Leave seats
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Three reasons would be (i)fear of a Corbyn Marxist Government (ii) an ageing population and (iii) an increased use, especially amongst the elderly in winter of the postal vote facility.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
I'm afraid you'll find Sutton is not just "leaning" Conservative but absolutely supine.
Yes, Sutton voted Leave and the Tories are ahead 52% to 32% for the LDs there with YouGov MRP
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
But the corollary is that the LibDems must be doing proportionally worse elsewhere if the opinion polls are in the right area. I'm looking at Farron and Swinson to be possible casualties on the night.
The MRP indicates a five point gap between the defending candidate and nearest challenger in Westmorland & Lonsdale, East Dunbartonshire and Guildford, so the confidence intervals have a lot of overlap and there's the suggestion of a tight contest.
The central estimates for Wimbledon have the Tories 13pts clear, so a much greater likelihood of a hold. If you believe the model, that is.
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
If enough "Labour Leavers" decide other things are more important to them than a) Brexit and b) Jeremy Corbyn not being the Messiah, the Tories are screwed.
Have to say I think the Labour posters in the North saying "Come home to Labour" are right on target.
And the Tory slogan of 'Get Brexit Done' remains the best way to counter it in Labour Leave seats
Only trouble is that’s undefined.
It's really not, it's the simple act of leaving the European Union into the transition phase and stopping parliament spending every waking second of every day on the matter.
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Interesting
There seems to be less enthusiasm than there was last time. And Labour seem to be banging on about how much they want to give to Boomer women not the young.
I still cant get my head around what is meant to be progressive about giving money to well off people - including members of the shadow cabinet.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
I'm afraid you'll find Sutton is not just "leaning" Conservative but absolutely supine.
I expect a 4-5000 Conservative majority and that it will not show the same swing as the other seats mentioned, but anything can happen in the last two weeks. I am already amazed at the way in which people here are picking up on the politicking around the London Bridge attack - and not in a positive way.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
I would be happy with a Labour minority govt. Happier than with any form of Boris govt.
You're happy for the Anti-Semite to become PM? A clear case of Brexit insanity...
No. I would be unhappy with the antisemite as PM. I would be even more unhappy for a narcissistic, self-promoting liar to be PM. The choice is between bl**dy awful and f*****g awful. That is not my fault
Working from an assumption that the midlands/northern working class leave voters are those with the strongest view on Brexit is it not possible that some of Labour's polling gains are actually in the south where the impact on seat totals would be negligible?
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
But the corollary is that the LibDems must be doing proportionally worse elsewhere if the opinion polls are in the right area. I'm looking at Farron and Swinson to be possible casualties on the night.
The MRP indicates a five point gap between the defending candidate and nearest challenger in Westmorland & Lonsdale, East Dunbartonshire and Guildford, so the confidence intervals have a lot of overlap and there's the suggestion of a tight contest.
The central estimates for Wimbledon have the Tories 13pts clear, so a much greater likelihood of a hold. If you believe the model, that is.
W&L is the neighbouring constituency to me and judging by the poster wars (even in villages where I've never seen them before) I'd say it will be close.
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
If enough "Labour Leavers" decide other things are more important to them than a) Brexit and b) Jeremy Corbyn not being the Messiah, the Tories are screwed.
Have to say I think the Labour posters in the North saying "Come home to Labour" are right on target.
And the Tory slogan of 'Get Brexit Done' remains the best way to counter it in Labour Leave seats
"Come home to Labour" is a very clever slogan. It trips off the tongue better than "For the many, not the few". And who doesn't like coming home? Christmas is coming too.
"Get Brexit Done" may be written about by future historians as a piece of idiocy. Nobody told the Tories to chuck their majority away or the ERG faction to remove the government that had agreed the May Deal, and yet now they say they're the guys who can "do" Brexit? Is Dom still fighting some referendum or other? If Nigel Farage were PM, it would make more sense.
I've just applied YouGov's poll results to Baxter's forecasting software, including the adjustment for Scottish seats and despite the Tories' headline lead of 9% in this poll, I am shocked to discover that this results in their achieving a majority of just FOUR seats as follows: Con ....... 327 Lab ....... 241 LibDems .. 15 SNP .......... 45 Brexit ........ 0 Greens ...... 1 Plaid ......... 3 N.I. ......... 18 Total ..... 650 Con Maj .... 4
I find that very hard to believe considering 2.5% lead was so close to a majority, why would 9% only just get it?
I think Baxter is wrong, but there are various reasons why it could happen - (1) Brexit Party standing only in non-Tory seats artificially increases the Tory national vote share with votes where they make less difference, (2) Tories losing a handful of seats to Lib Dems/SNP offsets some of the gains they make from Labour. The first effect could be worth 2% on the Tory share with no extra seats won from Labour. The second effect could mean that the Tories need to increase their lead over Labour by 1-2% just to stand still on net seats. So I think you might see a result like Baxters on a national vote share lead of ~7%, which is most of the way to 9%. It's only slightly stretching credulity. Contrarywise, though, I recall some earlier polling that had the Tories making gains where it would give them more seats than UNS would suggest - eg in the Midlands - and so that would make it easier for the Tories to win a majority, rather than harder.
It looks as if our next PM will be a 'buffoon', 'toe-rag', 'philanderer', 'racist', and many more epithets. I wonder which will get him in the end?
Buffoon. It is possible to recover from dislike, and neither being a philanderer nor a racist is bar to high office. Derision is much more injurious. There is nothing to fall back on when under the cosh. I reckon Tory majority about 40.
Working from an assumption that the midlands/northern working class leave voters are those with the strongest view on Brexit is it not possible that some of Labour's polling gains are actually in the south where the impact on seat totals would be negligible?
Yes, given the only forecast gains of the 36 projected for the Tories using the YouGov MRP model and tonight's Yougov in London and the SE now are Kensington and Eastbourne
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
But the corollary is that the LibDems must be doing proportionally worse elsewhere if the opinion polls are in the right area. I'm looking at Farron and Swinson to be possible casualties on the night.
The MRP indicates a five point gap between the defending candidate and nearest challenger in Westmorland & Lonsdale, East Dunbartonshire and Guildford, so the confidence intervals have a lot of overlap and there's the suggestion of a tight contest.
The central estimates for Wimbledon have the Tories 13pts clear, so a much greater likelihood of a hold. If you believe the model, that is.
The interesting Wimbledon poll is last weeks Delta constituency poll. That puts the LDs clearly ahead in a contest perceived to be between Conservative and LD - and Esher suggests this is a message being heard in Surrey and SW London.
Average of tonight's 5 national polls: Con 43.2% Lab 32.6% LD 13.4% BRX 3.0% Grn 3.0%
Almost exactly in line with the YouGov MRP national figures. Flavible: Con 375, Lab 187, SNP 41, LD 25, PC 3, Grn 1. ElectoralCalculus: Con 348, Lab 231, SNP 31, LD 17, PC 4, Grn 1.
Tory hopes of a majority are over. It's all about the hung parliament now.
On a night when 3 of the 5 polls out show double digit leads and one of the other 2 is at 9, this must be the most ridiculous and spectacularly wrongheaded comment
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
But the corollary is that the LibDems must be doing proportionally worse elsewhere if the opinion polls are in the right area. I'm looking at Farron and Swinson to be possible casualties on the night.
You are overlooking that the LDs are 6% higher nationally than in 2017 (at present), so even after taking account of a differential performance in this area the candidates elsewhere should easily improve on 2017. Of course, in individual constituencies local effects and brexit leanings may impact and Farron may be the most vulnerable. But anyone who thinks Swinson will lose is a triumph of hope over sanity.
The Holy MRP proclaims:
East Dunbartonshire: Lean LD Westmorland and Lonsdale: Lean LD North Norfolk: Lean Con Eastbourne: Likely Con
At least by that metric, Farron's seat is not the most vulnerable.
FWIW, I reckon that North Norfolk is the most likely Lib Dem loss. 58:42 Leave, an atypically old electorate, well-regarded local MP retiring.
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Interesting
There seems to be less enthusiasm than there was last time. And Labour seem to be banging on about how much they want to give to Boomer women not the young.
I still cant get my head around what is meant to be progressive about giving money to well off people - including members of the shadow cabinet.
There is nothing remotely progressive about. It’s a bribe. That’s all. The WASPIs are the most inappropriately named pressure group around. Far from being Women Against State Pension Inequality, they are Women Against State Pension Equality. Utterly selfish. If any group deserves the appellation “snowflake” it is them, moaning about the appalling injustice of being given 25 years notice of a pensions change. The absolute horror!
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Interesting
There seems to be less enthusiasm than there was last time. And Labour seem to be banging on about how much they want to give to Boomer women not the young.
Well they know such young people as will turn out will overwhelmingly be on their side anyway. Older vote bribes are needed, especially as the Tories have not been so foolish as to be honest with older voters in taking away some bribes this time.
No. I would be unhappy with the antisemite as PM. I would be even more unhappy for a narcissistic, self-promoting liar to be PM. The choice is between bl**dy awful and f*****g awful. That is not my fault
Telling a lie is worse than antisemitism?
Really?
My suspicion is that many remainers would vote for anybody, regardless of character or impact on the UK, as long as it saved their beloved EU.
The BMG looks like a possible outlier (39% Con is the first sub-40% value for them since a survey by the same pollster published a couple of weeks ago.) However, if we take an average of the middle three polls, omitting both the highest and lowest Con values, we get:
Con average: 43.7% Lab average: 33.0%
Con lead: 10.7% (so as near as makes no difference to the same)
Comparable figures from the Britain Elects tracker, issued yesterday afternoon:
Con: 42.4% Lab: 30.9%
Con lead: 11.5%
Indicates a squeeze might be occurring, with yesterday's tracker itself representing a 1% narrowing since that compiled on November 25th. Basically suggests Labour might have caught up by about 2% this week.
However, thanks to the wonder of Wikipedia, I've also been able to tot up the published Tory lead in every national VI poll taken since the dissolution of Parliament (i.e. 43 separate surveys,) and the mean of all the values comes to 11.4%. That, of course, is virtually identical to yesterday's tracker. So the small tightening indicated by tonight's polls, which is well within MoE, could just be noise.
More data required.
I don't know about you, but with 11 campaigning days to go, I'd rather be on the side with the 10+ point lead.
Maybe the nervous exhaustion is getting to me, but I feel almost deliriously happy!
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
I'm afraid you'll find Sutton is not just "leaning" Conservative but absolutely supine.
I expect a 4-5000 Conservative majority and that it will not show the same swing as the other seats mentioned, but anything can happen in the last two weeks. I am already amazed at the way in which people here are picking up on the politicking around the London Bridge attack - and not in a positive way.
I was just thinking about the NATO summit. We’ve all spoken about Trump, but what about the EU leaders? Presumably the last thing they want is chaos, so although they won’t directly intervene we might get some friendly vibes and warm words about the PM. On the other hand, someone is bound to say a deal will take forever to strike. Hmmm
My verdict from tonight's polls, both national and constituency: Tories heading for a majority of about 50 to 60 seats. MRP confirmed by almost all the data (using averages). I've reduced the Tory majority slightly from 68 because the average national shares tonight are 43.2% to 32.6% compared to 43% to 32% in the MRP headline figures, which is a Tory lead of 10.6% instead of 11%.
I would be happy with a Labour minority govt. Happier than with any form of Boris govt.
You're happy for the Anti-Semite to become PM? A clear case of Brexit insanity...
No. I would be unhappy with the antisemite as PM. I would be even more unhappy for a narcissistic, self-promoting liar to be PM. The choice is between bl**dy awful and f*****g awful. That is not my fault
Gallic shades of "vote for the crook, not the fascist".
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
But the corollary is that the LibDems must be doing proportionally worse elsewhere if the opinion polls are in the right area. I'm looking at Farron and Swinson to be possible casualties on the night.
The MRP indicates a five point gap between the defending candidate and nearest challenger in Westmorland & Lonsdale, East Dunbartonshire and Guildford, so the confidence intervals have a lot of overlap and there's the suggestion of a tight contest.
The central estimates for Wimbledon have the Tories 13pts clear, so a much greater likelihood of a hold. If you believe the model, that is.
The interesting Wimbledon poll is last weeks Delta constituency poll. That puts the LDs clearly ahead in a contest perceived to be between Conservative and LD - and Esher suggests this is a message being heard in Surrey and SW London.
The Esher figures broadly agree with the MRP, as do the other four constituency polls issued this evening. The Wimbledon ones do not.
Of course, this could just as easily be down to an issue with the model as with the Wimbledon poll, but on the balance of probabilities the Wimbledon poll looks more likely to be the outlier.
Regardless, just 12-and-a-bit days left until we find out.
The Esher poll is interesting but still looks a Raab hold to me. What is more interesting is what it may imply for nearby seats, especially Wimbledon and Guildford. Not too dissimilar to Esher (albeit without the modern Portillo in situ), and both starting from a position more vulnerable to the LDs and with more Labour voters to squeeze. It suggests the tactical voting message is getting across, at least in this part of the world, and given the Wimbledon constituency poll a little while ago which showed the LDs winning in a contest seen as Conservative v LD it is not good news for the Conservatives.
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
But the corollary is that the LibDems must be doing proportionally worse elsewhere if the opinion polls are in the right area. I'm looking at Farron and Swinson to be possible casualties on the night.
You are overlooking that the LDs are 6% higher nationally than in 2017 (at present), so even after taking account of a differential performance in this area the candidates elsewhere should easily improve on 2017. Of course, in individual constituencies local effects and brexit leanings may impact and Farron may be the most vulnerable. But anyone who thinks Swinson will lose is a triumph of hope over sanity.
The Holy MRP proclaims:
East Dunbartonshire: Lean LD Westmorland and Lonsdale: Lean LD North Norfolk: Lean Con Eastbourne: Likely Con
At least by that metric, Farron's seat is not the most vulnerable.
FWIW, I reckon that North Norfolk is the most likely Lib Dem loss. 58:42 Leave, an atypically old electorate, well-regarded local MP retiring.
I am well aware of the MRP. It takes no account of how hard Lamb is working for his successor or Lloyds legendary campaigning. Farron is more vulnerable (although it is possible that none or all 3 could go depending on the last two weeks). The weakness of the MRP is that it cannot handle local factors and these are seats with clear local factors.
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
If enough "Labour Leavers" decide other things are more important to them than a) Brexit and b) Jeremy Corbyn not being the Messiah, the Tories are screwed.
Have to say I think the Labour posters in the North saying "Come home to Labour" are right on target.
And the Tory slogan of 'Get Brexit Done' remains the best way to counter it in Labour Leave seats
"Come home to Labour" is a very clever slogan. It trips off the tongue better than "For the many, not the few". And who doesn't like coming home? Christmas is coming too.
"Get Brexit Done" may be written about by future historians as a piece of idiocy. Nobody told the Tories to chuck their majority away or the ERG faction to remove the government that had agreed the May Deal, and yet now they say they're the guys who can "do" Brexit? Is Dom still fighting some referendum or other? If Nigel Farage were PM, it would make more sense.
Most Leavers back the Boris Deal in current polling, most Leavers did not back the May Deal. Plus Corbyn has voted to extend, against No Deal, against the May Deal and against the Boris Deal. If Labour voters go Brexit Party that also benefits the Tories in Leave seats anyway
My main concern is that what actually happens is (b) Corbyn will go and his successor will be somebody as extreme or worse, but without the reputational baggage.
If Labour really does become more moderate, and we end up with a properly costed and realistic soft Left manifesto next time around, then I would be mightily relieved. I might even vote for it. But if something sounds too good to be true it typically is.
With 14 years in Government and despite numerous re-inventions, the Conservatives in 2024 will I think look tired and out of touch. Against a new, moderate Labour leader there will only be one winner and for the slow-witted on here, it won't be the Tories.
No. I would be unhappy with the antisemite as PM. I would be even more unhappy for a narcissistic, self-promoting liar to be PM. The choice is between bl**dy awful and f*****g awful. That is not my fault
Telling a lie is worse than antisemitism? Really? My suspicion is that many remainers would vote for anybody, regardless of character or impact on the UK, as long as it saved their beloved EU.
Putting somebody in who would sacrifice anything and anyone to personal ambition is a stupid thing to do. You might as well put a dictator into No. 10 A MINORITY Corbyn administration is what I would prefer. That way his actions would be restrained. I could cope with a MINORITY Conservative administration too. I do not want any of these lunatics to have real, unfettered power.
Working from an assumption that the midlands/northern working class leave voters are those with the strongest view on Brexit is it not possible that some of Labour's polling gains are actually in the south where the impact on seat totals would be negligible?
Looking at the crosstabs in YouGov you see that Labour increase their share of Remain and Leave voters by 2pp each, so they now have 50% of Remain voters supporting them (up from 48%) and 13% of Leave voters (up from 11%). You can also see that the number of Labour 2017 voters who say they will support other parties has reduced. To Tories is now 8% (down from 12%), to Lib Dems is 10% (down from 11%) and to Brexit Party is now 2% (down from 4%) - set against this there are more Labour switchers to SNP/PC/Grn. The figures per region are a bit noisy, but have Labour down in London and the South, and up in the Midlands and the North, compared to the previous poll. So, at least in YouGov, this is not what is found, but the sample is really too small to be certain, and the next release of the MRP (presumably on Wednesday?) will have more detail.
I have heard in the past that the Electoral Calculus model is based primarily on UNS and might not cope well if we have an unusual election in which swing varies significantly on a regional basis. Is this correct? If so then, should the Tories do just a little better in the Midlands and a little worse in the South than the national VI suggests, this could work significantly in their favour.
My suspicion is that the existing electoral model are useless this time around. This election has a number of unique features such as - BOTH leaders loathed and disliked by large numbers of voters - Brexit is colouring people's choices differently from the usual left/right split Those two factors alone should be enough to derail UNS and the other polling models.
Tbf Baxter has had various adjustments tacked onto it, making assumptions on things like tactical voting, so rather than UNS it’s an ‘adjusted UNS’ model. But the adjustments don’t look particularly sound to me and are by way of statistical bodges to make its forecasts look more sensible against previous results. Of all the models it’s the least convincing.
There is nothing remotely progressive about. It’s a bribe. That’s all. The WASPIs are the most inappropriately named pressure group around. Far from being Women Against State Pension Inequality, they are Women Against State Pension Equality. Utterly selfish. If any group deserves the appellation “snowflake” it is them, moaning about the appalling injustice of being given 25 years notice of a pensions change. The absolute horror!
My feeling is much of Labour's bounce is from WASPI's (and their husbands) loving the idea of free cash.
If Labour don't quite stop the Tories this time you can be pretty sure they will have learnt that freebies for everyone is probably going to be good enough next time.
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Interesting
There seems to be less enthusiasm than there was last time. And Labour seem to be banging on about how much they want to give to Boomer women not the young.
Well they know such young people as will turn out will overwhelmingly be on their side anyway. Older vote bribes are needed, especially as the Tories have not been so foolish as to be honest with older voters in taking away some bribes this time.
These are US figures, but I suspect UK not very different. As long as this process continues, the youth will vote differently to their grandparents.
No. I would be unhappy with the antisemite as PM. I would be even more unhappy for a narcissistic, self-promoting liar to be PM. The choice is between bl**dy awful and f*****g awful. That is not my fault
Telling a lie is worse than antisemitism? Really? My suspicion is that many remainers would vote for anybody, regardless of character or impact on the UK, as long as it saved their beloved EU.
Putting somebody in who would sacrifice anything and anyone to personal ambition is a stupid thing to do. You might as well put a dictator into No. 10 A MINORITY Corbyn administration is what I would prefer. That way his actions would be restrained. I could cope with a MINORITY Conservative administration too. I do not want any of these lunatics to have real, unfettered power.
Jeremy Corbyn's foreign policy would not be constrained one iota by being a minority.
Comments
Labour have almost all the student vote, and most students think (rightly or wrongly) that Corby will be writing off their debt anyhow. I can't see it shifting any more votes now for Labour.
Labour need to bribe a bit more widely. Free social care is probably what they should go for, looking at the demographic they need to win.
The updated YouGov would still give a Tory majority of 40 using the YouGov MRP model
Don't forget that a lot of oldies vote by post, and will already have done so.
By contrast, the apparent last minute surge in voter registrations, which was apparently skewed towards younger voters, does not do the job on its own. You can register to vote online, but if you've not done so well in advance then clearly you won't be getting a postal vote and you'll have to go out and put graphite to ballot paper.
It's December, it'll be cold and dark, and young people have an established record for turning out in substantially lower percentages than old ones. What's the betting that, come the day, a lot of them can't be arsed?
Tonight's YouGov almost exactly matches the Tory and Labour voteshares in 1992 but with the LDs 3% lower
ps dunno if you know, but in vanilla you can post the graph directly, eg....
Corbyn is going to go for the problems caused by probation cuts etc , the more interesting added point will be about failed overseas interventions, given he was against the Iraq War .
Hard to know how the terrorist attack will play out with voters , there are dangers to both the main parties .
LOL
I am now thinking Guildford and Wimbledon are probables for the LDs, Sutton is interesting if still leaning Conservative, and there could even be an interesting night in Mole Valley and Woking if the LDs pick up a point or two nationally.
1: The answers that are being given to the pollsters.
2: Historical turnout.
One reason the pollsters were wrong last time was the exceptionally low turnout for the elderly and exceptionally high turnout by the young. Pollsters adjusted their adjustments after the last election because of this I believe so they aren't downweighting the young by as much as they would have previously.
I cannot see Corbyn Labour picking a moderate to succeed Corbyn even after another defeat under Corbyn.
If the Tories won in 2024 after 14 years in power it would be a win of astonishing, historic and epic proportions giving the longest period of Tory rule since Lord Liverpool 200 years ago which was even pre Great Reform Act, so it is unlikely but if Labour stick with the hard left it would be possible unless the LDs can overtake them, maybe under Chuka
Although MRP suggests otherwise, I still think we might see something of a localised LD surge
"Using
the best available evidence—the British Election Study (BES) face-to-face surveys—we find no evidence
of a surge in youth turnout at the 2017 election."
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=653004094099107073079027008002071095049017031083090035064100085096008123125089022121022102098031119063013103101080012008097072000020066087035098003103020065026080113063023086082031090017113125095115121090112080111120126075026008086009089116127117065064&EXT=pdf
- BOTH leaders loathed and disliked by large numbers of voters
- Brexit is colouring people's choices differently from the usual left/right split
Those two factors alone should be enough to derail UNS and the other polling models.
https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/youthquake-a-reply-to-our-critics/#.XeLsKej7TIU
You have an agenda that you follow...frankly its yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7742395/Poll-reveals-Tories-13-point-lead-Labour.html
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
The central estimates for Wimbledon have the Tories 13pts clear, so a much greater likelihood of a hold. If you believe the model, that is.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200880369693843456
.
The choice is between bl**dy awful and f*****g awful. That is not my fault
"Get Brexit Done" may be written about by future historians as a piece of idiocy. Nobody told the Tories to chuck their majority away or the ERG faction to remove the government that had agreed the May Deal, and yet now they say they're the guys who can "do" Brexit? Is Dom still fighting some referendum or other? If Nigel Farage were PM, it would make more sense.
The first effect could be worth 2% on the Tory share with no extra seats won from Labour. The second effect could mean that the Tories need to increase their lead over Labour by 1-2% just to stand still on net seats.
So I think you might see a result like Baxters on a national vote share lead of ~7%, which is most of the way to 9%. It's only slightly stretching credulity.
Contrarywise, though, I recall some earlier polling that had the Tories making gains where it would give them more seats than UNS would suggest - eg in the Midlands - and so that would make it easier for the Tories to win a majority, rather than harder.
I reckon Tory majority about 40.
However, for the vast majority of leavers it is the end point.
You will find the EU falls off the radar of leavers pretty quickly I suspect.
Con 43.2%
Lab 32.6%
LD 13.4%
BRX 3.0%
Grn 3.0%
Almost exactly in line with the YouGov MRP national figures.
Flavible: Con 375, Lab 187, SNP 41, LD 25, PC 3, Grn 1.
ElectoralCalculus: Con 348, Lab 231, SNP 31, LD 17, PC 4, Grn 1.
East Dunbartonshire: Lean LD
Westmorland and Lonsdale: Lean LD
North Norfolk: Lean Con
Eastbourne: Likely Con
At least by that metric, Farron's seat is not the most vulnerable.
FWIW, I reckon that North Norfolk is the most likely Lib Dem loss. 58:42 Leave, an atypically old electorate, well-regarded local MP retiring.
The WASPIs are the most inappropriately named pressure group around. Far from being Women Against State Pension Inequality, they are Women Against State Pension Equality. Utterly selfish. If any group deserves the appellation “snowflake” it is them, moaning about the appalling injustice of being given 25 years notice of a pensions change. The absolute horror!
Really?
My suspicion is that many remainers would vote for anybody, regardless of character or impact on the UK, as long as it saved their beloved EU.
Maybe the nervous exhaustion is getting to me, but I feel almost deliriously happy!
Hmmm
Tories heading for a majority of about 50 to 60 seats.
MRP confirmed by almost all the data (using averages). I've reduced the Tory majority slightly from 68 because the average national shares tonight are 43.2% to 32.6% compared to 43% to 32% in the MRP headline figures, which is a Tory lead of 10.6% instead of 11%.
Of course, this could just as easily be down to an issue with the model as with the Wimbledon poll, but on the balance of probabilities the Wimbledon poll looks more likely to be the outlier.
Regardless, just 12-and-a-bit days left until we find out.
The weakness of the MRP is that it cannot handle local factors and these are seats with clear local factors.
A MINORITY Corbyn administration is what I would prefer. That way his actions would be restrained. I could cope with a MINORITY Conservative administration too.
I do not want any of these lunatics to have real, unfettered power.
The figures per region are a bit noisy, but have Labour down in London and the South, and up in the Midlands and the North, compared to the previous poll.
So, at least in YouGov, this is not what is found, but the sample is really too small to be certain, and the next release of the MRP (presumably on Wednesday?) will have more detail.
If Labour don't quite stop the Tories this time you can be pretty sure they will have learnt that freebies for everyone is probably going to be good enough next time.
https://twitter.com/KBAndersen/status/1198653456581562368?s=19