I think we can safely say the 19% lead was an outlier.
And 15% too I should think, but it's the trend that matters. Gap is closing but it's still large.
That depends on what your starting point is.
There's no change in the gap compared to two or four weeks ago but both Con and Lab are up a bit.
What I find suspicious by this poll is BREX on 2. Brexit and Tory party support really that interchangeable? Even in labour areas?
It's also a very high Con+BP figure - so it's fairy nuff to shave a couple of points of it. Real Tory lead then becomes about 12% which is pretty much in line.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
Obama used to fly around in an Osprey. Three of them did a practice run over Lord's during a county match back in 2016. I assume Trump needs a motorcade to get about the West End. I'm sure he'll be well received by commuters, xmas shoppers and couriers. Not to mention journalists hanging onto his every word.
The US President’s travel plans are a complete nightmare to anyone who comes close to them. Meanwhile two or three cars and half a dozen police bikes (and some very funky traffic lights) can get our own PM from Downing St to Northolt in about 15 minutes.
Boris would do it in 10 if Andrew Neil was behind him.
I think this is probably a fair prediction, could be anything from a slim Tory majority to a HP, which I kind of think is the likely outcome
Yes, that's where I'm at.
If the Tories broadly hold up in the Southwest of England and Northeast Scotland (SNP/LD threat) they don't need as many Labour seats as once thought. Aside from Richmond Park and St Albans there really isn't much else for the Lib Dems out there in SW London/remain SE. The swing needed for Guildford is over 15% and that's one of their easier seats.
Huge shift in prices in Portsmouth South. Lib Dems have collapsed from FAV to 20/1.
Best prices:
Lab 11/10 Con 7/4 LD 20/1
The contrast between Deltapoll and the LD Survation poll for Portsmouth S is really quite stark and the difference in dates surely can't account for that much of it. I think this reinforces the suspicion that the LDs must have commissioned a lot more constituency polls with Survation, all with relatively small samples thus ensuring a lot of random sample variation, and then published only the results which they liked.
You mean, the Lib Dems might have selectively published dodgy numbers to try to fool voters?
THE VERY IDEA!!!! (clutches pearls and gasps in amazement)
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
Why not? We kowtow to the USA.
We don't, but China under Xi is a human rights toilet and the man is an evil authoritarian arsehole. He talks of grinding his enemies to powder and "disappears" opponents. He hacks and steals everything he can. Meanwhile he's buying up the world so it's his bitch.
If I could boycott PRC goods I would but seemingly absolutely everything is made in China so it's hardly practical.
So having ruled out Trade Deals with PRC and USA in the last few days, it's just as well that we have Tuvalu in the bag...
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
Obama used to fly around in an Osprey. Three of them did a practice run over Lord's during a county match back in 2016. I assume Trump needs a motorcade to get about the West End. I'm sure he'll be well received by commuters, xmas shoppers and couriers. Not to mention journalists hanging onto his every word.
The US President’s travel plans are a complete nightmare to anyone who comes close to them. Meanwhile two or three cars and half a dozen police bikes (and some very funky traffic lights) can get our own PM from Downing St to Northolt in about 15 minutes.
I was in Woodstock (Oxon) by chance when Trump dropped into Blenheim Palace. The security was so heavy it was hilarious. My dog did a pee against a tree, and it moved.
Average of tonight's 3 polls so far: Con 42.7% Lab 32.3% LD 13.0% BRX 3.3% Grn 3.3% In line with the national MRP figures, and the constituency polls are also in line with the constituency MRP figures.
Without the Opinium poll which presumably inflates the Tory lead significantly, Tories on 41, Labour 33 which to me seems about right
The worry for Labour has to be the CR poll which shows the earlier Labour surge receding.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student debt at us yet. Good grief.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student debt at us yet. Good grief.
Agree expect more Labour bribes next week.
Cancel student debt, nationalize Sky sports, two extra weeks holiday for everyone & a 4 day week.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Does her credit.
And it would do Britain credit to make such a gesture. Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
Average of tonight's 3 polls so far: Con 42.7% Lab 32.3% LD 13.0% BRX 3.3% Grn 3.3% In line with the national MRP figures, and the constituency polls are also in line with the constituency MRP figures.
Without the Opinium poll which presumably inflates the Tory lead significantly, Tories on 41, Labour 33 which to me seems about right
It may be counterintuitive, but you need to include all the outliers to get a better overall result, assuming there are outliers in both directions.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
Why not? We kowtow to the USA.
No we don't, we have a 'special relationship'.
Which means British lives and money are wasted in American wars and in return British politicians get to posture about the world pretending to be more important than they are.
If the good voters of Esher and Walton do aim Raab out it will be a just outcome for his obsequious handling of the killing of that kid by the the US Diplomat's wife.
If we get a strong leave majority, but as many ERG mutters gone as possible, it’ll be all my dreams come true.
What's the total strength of the ERG - 30? Certainly no more than 50?
Any Tory majority in excess of that and they'd be pretty much powerless anyway (though for what it's worth, having backed Johnson and voted for his Withdrawal Agreement, they're all onboard with his project anyway - there's not much political room for a volte face that might imperil the Leaver Government they've always wanted.)
Nobody, but nobody knows what the agreed future relationship will be, if any if theWAIB is passed as we won’t have a clue what has been agreed until it’s done and dusted but you are voting to get brexit done giving Johnson a free hand to do what he can get away with. On the upside he might just be a so called Tory liberal and we have a close to EEA deal on the downside it will be wto on 31/12 next year. But yes let’s get brexit done so I can worry about the next series of love island
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student debt at us yet. Good grief.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student debt at us yet. Good grief.
Agree expect more Labour bribes next week.
Cancel student debt, nationalize Sky sports, two extra weeks holiday for everyone & a 4 day week.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Does her credit.
And it would do Britain credit to make such a gesture. Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
I know, I know.
I'm deeply embarrassed and ashamed of our feet dragging on this. God knows what they think of us in Hong Kong. They were waving British flags a year ago. They've given up now and switched to stars and stripes.
I consider us standing by Hong Kong a matter of national honour.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
You’re probably right. We should switch from loan to graduate tax - gets rid of the stigma of “debt”, and return fees to £3k. That would be sold as my Brexit dividend. Optics would be good all round.
Nah, we can't use the phrase brexit dividend with younger voters, it's not credible. Just call if righting a wrong and owning up to our mistake on fees. Voters love a bit of humility and contrition from the governing party.
I think you could - investing in future skills to unleash our global potential, etc. It’d go down well with Tory soft remainers and Lib Dem right. And as you say, anything to neutralise Labour in this cohort would be good.
Legalise weed. Tax it. Promise to spend every extra penny raised on the NHS.
I'd vote for it. And I haven't smoked dope since I was a student.
But people are going to smoke it whether it's legal or not and it seems like a massive opportunity for the Tories. Particularly if it's tied to the NHS.
Innocent me. I am belatedly discovering that politics these days is not a case of "it's not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game" but rather "if you KNOW you're right then you can lie and cheat to get your way".
Anyway, what a hard choice it for us in Bedford. Tactically, to promote "remain" the wonderful Gina Miller's site suggests we should vote Labour, but we rather dislike Corbyn (*), especially for his indecision over antisemitism and Brexit itself. But I guess we'll have (chewing our lips) to give "remain" priority, as it is a singular event.
For anyone who would like a calming, beautiful and fascinating documentary to watch - instead of worrying about polls - check out The Lake District: A Wild Year on BBC4 and available on iPlayer. I really cannot wait to move there. With luck, by the time of my birthday in February ...... 🤞
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
Why not? We kowtow to the USA.
We don't, but China under Xi is a human rights toilet and the man is an evil authoritarian arsehole. He talks of grinding his enemies to powder and "disappears" opponents. He hacks and steals everything he can. Meanwhile he's buying up the world so it's his bitch.
If I could boycott PRC goods I would but seemingly absolutely everything is made in China so it's hardly practical.
So having ruled out Trade Deals with PRC and USA in the last few days, it's just as well that we have Tuvalu in the bag...
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Does her credit.
And it would do Britain credit to make such a gesture. Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
I know, I know.
I'm deeply embarrassed and ashamed of our feet dragging on this. God knows what they think of us in Hong Kong. They were waving British flags a year ago. They've given up now and switched to stars and stripes.
I consider us standing by Hong Kong a matter of national honour.
Yes. Sometimes there really is just right and wrong.
Average of tonight's 3 polls so far: Con 42.7% Lab 32.3% LD 13.0% BRX 3.3% Grn 3.3% In line with the national MRP figures, and the constituency polls are also in line with the constituency MRP figures.
Without the Opinium poll which presumably inflates the Tory lead significantly, Tories on 41, Labour 33 which to me seems about right
The worry for Labour has to be the CR poll which shows the earlier Labour surge receding.
With the polls it's always best to look at ongoing trends rather than individual wobbles like that. And we certainly can't write off Labour yet.
But the credibility of the MRP has improved in my eyes after that clutch of constituency surveys. The agreement is very striking, and I'm sure that clever people at Labour Towers will have noticed both that, and that the MRP also predicts them going down to the heaviest defeat since 1983 (with constituency equalisation to follow after the election as well, should the Tories win outright.)
No wonder that Labour have been deploying troops Northwards. If the MRP is anything like accurate then the Labour Leavers really are defecting in some strength, and they're going to have their work cut out preventing Johnson from obtaining a majority.
Sorry if I missed the answer, but I think the most important question about polling is whether we are going to get updates of YouGov's MRP model between now and election day.
Sorry if I missed the answer, but I think the most important question about polling is whether we are going to get updates of YouGov's MRP model between now and election day.
There is a second poll a few days before polling day
Change in approval is interesting, and somewhat against the assumed tide.
Yes, Jez hosing money in the direction of taxpayers was clearly going make people look more favourably towards him, that is now wearing off and people are remembering all of the crap Jez comes with and Bozza didn't shit the bed.
Sorry if I missed the answer, but I think the most important question about polling is whether we are going to get updates of YouGov's MRP model between now and election day.
They didn't do it last time IIRC, and frankly if their projections are in reasonably close agreement with constituency surveys made well after they were published then there's probably no need for them to bother.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Does her credit.
And it would do Britain credit to make such a gesture. Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
I know, I know.
I'm deeply embarrassed and ashamed of our feet dragging on this. God knows what they think of us in Hong Kong. They were waving British flags a year ago. They've given up now and switched to stars and stripes.
I consider us standing by Hong Kong a matter of national honour.
Since the handover Hong Kong is not a UK responsibility and realistically only the US can stand up to China and press for Hong Kong autonomy anyway, we can back them but not much more
Wrong to ramp? Add to wrong Embarrassing 😀 If there was going to be key shift tonight the Comres killed that off hours ago. But cheer up batters, if this is going to go wrong for Conservatives it will be movement in the last 4 or 5 days
Innocent me. I am belatedly discovering that politics these days is not a case of "it's not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game" but rather "if you KNOW you're right then you can lie and cheat to get your way".
Anyway, what a hard choice it for us in Bedford. Tactically, to promote "remain" the wonderful Gina Miller's site suggests we should vote Labour, but we rather dislike Corbyn (*), especially for his indecision over antisemitism and Brexit itself. But I guess we'll have (chewing our lips) to give "remain" priority, as it is a singular event.
(*) This is an understatement.
How robust has the local candidate been on anti-semitism? That may make a decision easier.
That is almost exactly what I'd expect the final result to be. 45-30-15 (give or take) I expect Boris will get a 100-150 seat majority, although he'll lose a couple of colleagues in deepest Remainia. Sadly, I do not expect him to use his large majority wisely.
For anyone who would like a calming, beautiful and fascinating documentary to watch - instead of worrying about polls - check out The Lake District: A Wild Year on BBC4 and available on iPlayer. I really cannot wait to move there. With luck, by the time of my birthday in February ...... 🤞
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
You’re probably right. We should switch from loan to graduate tax - gets rid of the stigma of “debt”, and return fees to £3k. That would be sold as my Brexit dividend. Optics would be good all round.
Nah, we can't use the phrase brexit dividend with younger voters, it's not credible. Just call if righting a wrong and owning up to our mistake on fees. Voters love a bit of humility and contrition from the governing party.
I think you could - investing in future skills to unleash our global potential, etc. It’d go down well with Tory soft remainers and Lib Dem right. And as you say, anything to neutralise Labour in this cohort would be good.
Legalise weed. Tax it. Promise to spend every extra penny raised on the NHS.
I'd vote for it. And I haven't smoked dope since I was a student.
But people are going to smoke it whether it's legal or not and it seems like a massive opportunity for the Tories. Particularly if it's tied to the NHS.
Huge shift in prices in Portsmouth South. Lib Dems have collapsed from FAV to 20/1.
Best prices:
Lab 11/10 Con 7/4 LD 20/1
It's clear that Labour are going to do very well in university seats like Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Leeds North West.
It's hard to think of any town that isn't a 'university seat' any more. Bolton, Chester, Wrexham, Telford ... the list is endless and growing.
Presumably only matters in cases where there are a large number of students registered to vote in the university seat itself, and availing themselves of the privilege.
Also, if that's the case then they're not voting at home, which may simply have the effect of slightly increasing the age profile of the electorate everywhere else.
Change in approval is interesting, and somewhat against the assumed tide.
Yes, Jez hosing money in the direction of taxpayers was clearly going make people look more favourably towards him, that is now wearing off and people are remembering all of the crap Jez comes with and Bozza didn't shit the bed.
Except all week, Bozza has been shitting the bed...
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
Obama used to fly around in an Osprey. Three of them did a practice run over Lord's during a county match back in 2016. I assume Trump needs a motorcade to get about the West End. I'm sure he'll be well received by commuters, xmas shoppers and couriers. Not to mention journalists hanging onto his every word.
The US President’s travel plans are a complete nightmare to anyone who comes close to them. Meanwhile two or three cars and half a dozen police bikes (and some very funky traffic lights) can get our own PM from Downing St to Northolt in about 15 minutes.
Saw two helicopters flying in close formation above Holland Park earlier today.
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
We don't have any retail policies for young people and we fucked them all over with £9k fees. Until we correct that and give them all a refund we won't be competitive with that age group.
Yes. Shouldn’t expect anything surprising in the yougov if the others have strong and stable for the Tories. The crucial Elbow may even still be in double figures with not many yards to the line now.
The rather better polls overall tonight for the Tories along with evidence of weakness for them in the south suggests, if it pans out that there could be a big re-alignment going on in British politics. If so the Brexit effect could prove to be quite profound in its impact.
Change in approval is interesting, and somewhat against the assumed tide.
Yes, Jez hosing money in the direction of taxpayers was clearly going make people look more favourably towards him, that is now wearing off and people are remembering all of the crap Jez comes with and Bozza didn't shit the bed.
And still plenty of people around that remember Socialism tried to destruction under Wilson & Callaghan.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
You’re probably right. We should switch from loan to graduate tax - gets rid of the stigma of “debt”, and return fees to £3k. That would be sold as my Brexit dividend. Optics would be good all round.
Nah, we can't use the phrase brexit dividend with younger voters, it's not credible. Just call if righting a wrong and owning up to our mistake on fees. Voters love a bit of humility and contrition from the governing party.
I think you could - investing in future skills to unleash our global potential, etc. It’d go down well with Tory soft remainers and Lib Dem right. And as you say, anything to neutralise Labour in this cohort would be good.
Legalise weed. Tax it. Promise to spend every extra penny raised on the NHS.
I'd vote for it. And I haven't smoked dope since I was a student.
But people are going to smoke it whether it's legal or not and it seems like a massive opportunity for the Tories. Particularly if it's tied to the NHS.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Does her credit.
And it would do Britain credit to make such a gesture. Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
I know, I know.
I'm deeply embarrassed and ashamed of our feet dragging on this. God knows what they think of us in Hong Kong. They were waving British flags a year ago. They've given up now and switched to stars and stripes.
I consider us standing by Hong Kong a matter of national honour.
Since the handover Hong Kong is not a UK responsibility and realistically only the US can stand up to China and press for Hong Kong autonomy anyway, we can back them but not much more
No, we have a moral duty in the UK-Sino Agreement.
And Britain is about standing up for the right thing wherever in the world no matter how big and powerful they are.
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
We don't have any retail policies for young people and we fucked them all over with £9k fees. Until we correct that and give them all a refund we won't be competitive with that age group.
23% isn't bad. Labour policies are better for all 18-24 years olds - especially the £10 wage and free public transport, yet the tories still get 23%. I'd count that as a victory.
Change in approval is interesting, and somewhat against the assumed tide.
Yes, Jez hosing money in the direction of taxpayers was clearly going make people look more favourably towards him, that is now wearing off and people are remembering all of the crap Jez comes with and Bozza didn't shit the bed.
Except all week, Bozza has been shitting the bed...
Only on twitter, in the real world no one gave a fuck that he didn't do the Neil interview in the end.
Innocent me. I am belatedly discovering that politics these days is not a case of "it's not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game" but rather "if you KNOW you're right then you can lie and cheat to get your way".
Anyway, what a hard choice it for us in Bedford. Tactically, to promote "remain" the wonderful Gina Miller's site suggests we should vote Labour, but we rather dislike Corbyn (*), especially for his indecision over antisemitism and Brexit itself. But I guess we'll have (chewing our lips) to give "remain" priority, as it is a singular event.
(*) This is an understatement.
How robust has the local candidate been on anti-semitism? That may make a decision easier.
He's OK I think. It's worth checking carefully though.
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
We don't have any retail policies for young people and we fucked them all over with £9k fees. Until we correct that and give them all a refund we won't be competitive with that age group.
23% isn't bad. Labour policies are better for all 18-24 years olds - especially the £10 wage and free public transport, yet the tories still get 23%. I'd count that as a victory.
The 23% is probably the % who didn't swallow the lie that you have to go to University in order to get a good job. They're the ones who left school and went to work straight-in or via apprenticeships and work for a living instead of whinging that they're not being paid £50k a year with a 2:2 degree in Basket-weaving?
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Does her credit.
And it would do Britain credit to make such a gesture. Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
I know, I know.
I'm deeply embarrassed and ashamed of our feet dragging on this. God knows what they think of us in Hong Kong. They were waving British flags a year ago. They've given up now and switched to stars and stripes.
I consider us standing by Hong Kong a matter of national honour.
Since the handover Hong Kong is not a UK responsibility and realistically only the US can stand up to China and press for Hong Kong autonomy anyway, we can back them but not much more
No, we have a moral duty in the UK-Sino Agreement.
And Britain is about standing up for the right thing wherever in the world no matter how big and powerful they are.
China has a bigger military than us and a bigger economy than us, as I said only the US can realistically stand up to China as the world's foremost economic and military power.
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
We don't have any retail policies for young people and we fucked them all over with £9k fees. Until we correct that and give them all a refund we won't be competitive with that age group.
Yes, and we need to show you can be patriotic and British and also have other identities too and be comfortable with that.
We can't stop being Tory (nor should we) but need to show we're on their side and talk their language.
Yes. Shouldn’t expect anything surprising in the yougov if the others have strong and stable for the Tories. The crucial Elbow may even still be in double figures with not many yards to the line now.
Um, you'll have to find out tomorrow! Still YG and Survation to come!
Evening all. Tories have not changed strategy nor made any knee jerk reactions to Labour's free everything for everyone campaigning even though the polls appeared to be tightening in the last week. This suggests 2 things: 1. Tory private polling looks good. This ties in with Labour changing strategy on the back of their own private polling. 2. Most of the public know there is no such thing as a free lunch.
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
We don't have any retail policies for young people and we fucked them all over with £9k fees. Until we correct that and give them all a refund we won't be competitive with that age group.
Yes, and we need to show you can be patriotic and British and also have other identities too and be comfortable with that.
We can't stop being Tory (nor should we) but need to show we're on their side and talk their language.
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
Obama used to fly around in an Osprey. Three of them did a practice run over Lord's during a county match back in 2016. I assume Trump needs a motorcade to get about the West End. I'm sure he'll be well received by commuters, xmas shoppers and couriers. Not to mention journalists hanging onto his every word.
The US President’s travel plans are a complete nightmare to anyone who comes close to them. Meanwhile two or three cars and half a dozen police bikes (and some very funky traffic lights) can get our own PM from Downing St to Northolt in about 15 minutes.
Saw two helicopters flying in close formation above Holland Park earlier today.
Comments
We need another one to see really.
6 points within MOE could we 10 points and 10 points within MOE could be 6 points. 15 points is out of the MOE
Does her credit.
Aside from Richmond Park and St Albans there really isn't much else for the Lib Dems out there in SW London/remain SE. The swing needed for Guildford is over 15% and that's one of their easier seats.
THE VERY IDEA!!!! (clutches pearls and gasps in amazement)
Cancel student debt, nationalize Sky sports, two extra weeks holiday for everyone & a 4 day week.
Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1200877344967274496
I'm deeply embarrassed and ashamed of our feet dragging on this. God knows what they think of us in Hong Kong. They were waving British flags a year ago. They've given up now and switched to stars and stripes.
I consider us standing by Hong Kong a matter of national honour.
I'd vote for it. And I haven't smoked dope since I was a student.
But people are going to smoke it whether it's legal or not and it seems like a massive opportunity for the Tories. Particularly if it's tied to the NHS.
Anyway, what a hard choice it for us in Bedford. Tactically, to promote "remain" the wonderful Gina Miller's site suggests we should vote Labour, but we rather dislike Corbyn (*), especially for his indecision over antisemitism and Brexit itself. But I guess we'll have (chewing our lips) to give "remain" priority, as it is a singular event.
(*) This is an understatement.
CON: 45% (+2)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-1)
BXP: 3% (=)
VIa @DeltapollUK.
Changes w/ 21-23 Nov.
I really cannot wait to move there. With luck, by the time of my birthday in February ...... 🤞
But the credibility of the MRP has improved in my eyes after that clutch of constituency surveys. The agreement is very striking, and I'm sure that clever people at Labour Towers will have noticed both that, and that the MRP also predicts them going down to the heaviest defeat since 1983 (with constituency equalisation to follow after the election as well, should the Tories win outright.)
No wonder that Labour have been deploying troops Northwards. If the MRP is anything like accurate then the Labour Leavers really are defecting in some strength, and they're going to have their work cut out preventing Johnson from obtaining a majority.
It means I won't have to move into nichomar's hacienda now 😊
42/34 could be final result
If there was going to be key shift tonight the Comres killed that off hours ago.
But cheer up batters, if this is going to go wrong for Conservatives it will be movement in the last 4 or 5 days
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
I expect Boris will get a 100-150 seat majority, although he'll lose a couple of colleagues in deepest Remainia.
Sadly, I do not expect him to use his large majority wisely.
This election is far too stressful.
Nobody buying the legal stuff anyway.
Also, if that's the case then they're not voting at home, which may simply have the effect of slightly increasing the age profile of the electorate everywhere else.
The crucial Elbow may even still be in double figures with not many yards to the line now.
There is a 50% chance Tories match their 2017 percentage. Range 39% to 44% I believe.
And Britain is about standing up for the right thing wherever in the world no matter how big and powerful they are.
Anyone got the tables?
I'd say 28% to 37% for Labour (big spread) and about 38% to 45% for Tory.
We'd have to be very lucky to end up with a 1% lead!
I'd like to see some the 18-24 group broken down into students/graduates and non-students/graduates.
Also between home owners and renters.
Seems a bit perverse, but to each his own.
We can support the US, little more
We can't stop being Tory (nor should we) but need to show we're on their side and talk their language.
Delta +13
Opinium +15
BMG +6
ComRes +10
PanelBase +8
Kantar +10
ICM +7
YouGov 11
Tories have not changed strategy nor made any knee jerk reactions to Labour's free everything for everyone campaigning even though the polls appeared to be tightening in the last week. This suggests 2 things:
1. Tory private polling looks good. This ties in with Labour changing strategy on the back of their own private polling.
2. Most of the public know there is no such thing as a free lunch.