There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
I think so because what will happen now is further shoring up of the Labour vote as left-wing voters move to them tactically to frustrate a Tory majority.
Even political trend has an equal and opposite challenging one.
No, I don't think so. Anyone who is ready to vote for Jez would have said so this week with the onslaught of bribes from last week. We're at (or just past) peak Labour.
That would indeed be an interesting development, and definitively prove this is not 2017 all over again, should Labour stall at this point. I do wonder what either has left in store anymore, as it feels like a waste of another nearly 2 weeks. There'll be the probably student debt right off from Labour, but I'm not sure what the Tories' attempt at momentum setting will be.
The only poll not showing a majority is BMG, it may be a majority just on its figures and the Tory vote share is out of line with all other pollsters. This is not a repeat of 2017 (yet) Labour need movement to continue to have any chance of stopping a majority
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Absolutely bogus comparison, of course. Completely different models. Swing from apples to oranges.
HYUFD never disappoints, does he?
What do you make of BREX on 2% HY?
Labour winning back some Brexit Party voters in its seats, so it now would hold Dagenham and Leigh and Workington for example. However Brexit Party still taking enough Labour votes to help the Tories take 33 Labour mainly Leave seats
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
Third possibility: Con and Lab have both maxed out their squeeze on the minor parties and nothing changes between now and election day. Final vote shares are broadly consistent with the MRP and so is the result.
I'm still sceptical that the Labour Leavers will actually turn out for the Tories. But, frankly, we just don't know.
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
Third possibility: Con and Lab have both maxed out their squeeze on the minor parties and nothing changes between now and election day. Final vote shares are broadly consistent with the MRP and so is the result.
I'm still sceptical that the Labour Leavers will actually turn out for the Tories. But, frankly, we just don't know.
Also depends on whether the supposed youth "surge" is able to undo any of those small Tory wins
Amateur psychology effort: as we speak Andrew Marr is sitting down at his desk preparing himself for his most aggressively probing leader interview ever. No holds barred, giving Boris 2 barrels. Can’t let that A.Neil character show him up as weak And second rate. The reputation of the BBC rests on it. That’ll show ‘em. Expect something unusually punchy.
Changing the subject little bit, I watched the news, and the politician take on yesterday’s horror attack.
To be honest, without scoring political points there are questions to be asked soon in order to learn lessons. Why did Tories destroy Labour’s indeterminate sentencing, point of principle because it was illiberal and draconian or to save money? was it down to the clueless Lib Dem part of the coalition? Boris can say it’s fault of Tories in power, and he never agreed with Tories ending Labour’s tough indeterminate sentencing so not his fault? Was he correcting that in his thin manifesto.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
I think so because what will happen now is further shoring up of the Labour vote as left-wing voters move to them tactically to frustrate a Tory majority.
Even political trend has an equal and opposite challenging one.
No, I don't think so. Anyone who is ready to vote for Jez would have said so this week with the onslaught of bribes from last week. We're at (or just past) peak Labour.
Look at the trend and the YouGov.
The majority is squeezing in.
It's really not. The Labour onslaught is over and they are about 10 points behind in the polls.
Yeah - I am no longer concerned that the tories will not get a majority.
Thank god as the thought of the marxists anywhere near power was not a good one
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Absolutely bogus comparison, of course. Completely different models. Swing from apples to oranges.
HYUFD never disappoints, does he?
What do you make of BREX on 2% HY?
Labour winning back some Brexit Party voters in its seats, so it now would hold Dagenham and Leigh and Workington for example. However Brexit Party still taking enough Labour votes to help the Tories take 33 Labour mainly Leave seats
How do we know?
Thought Workington was toss up in MRP based on 11% lead.
The only poll not showing a majority is BMG, it may be a majority just on its figures and the Tory vote share is out of line with all other pollsters. This is not a repeat of 2017 (yet) Labour need movement to continue to have any chance of stopping a majority
Yet we still have 10 days or more to go which is an eternity politically. Many people haven't yet engaged and there is, in any number of constituencies, all to play for. As OGH tells us, this isn't one election but 650 local elections and each one has its differences and nuances. IF the Conservatives are still in this position this time next week it will be over - IF the BMG figures are a trend and become more representative, the last three or four days are going to be "interesting". Johnson needs the majority as I said earlier - if he fails to achieve that his options and futute become much more limited. That does NOT mean Jeremy Corbyn becomes Prime Minister but Johnson's Brexit strategy will be in serious trouble.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
The range of Tory leads in conventional opinion polls is still almost identical to the range at the same stage in 2017. Maybe one point higher.
But the lead in the YouGov MRP is seven points higher than it was in 2017.
The leads from those two sources are now comparable, whereas they were quite different in 2017. It's reasonable to assume that the present agreement indicates that the conventional polls have corrected the systematic error of 2017.
But until election night I doubt we'll be able to dispel the nagging suspicion that the conventional polls are still wrong, as they were last time, and that this time the MRP is wrong as well ...
To cover a point I raised earlier, labour still have not burst through the 34 ceiling this election. For reference in the 5 polls on the same weekend 2017 their shares were 32, 33, 36, 37, 39
The new Conservative coalition has two overlapping elements - one is those desperate to see Brexit brought to a conclusion (many of whom believe, I suspect, we will leave if we pass the WA on or before 31/1/20 and may be unaware this is just the start of a process, not the end) and the other is those terrified of Jeremy Corbyn and all his works. Johnson's problem longer term is a) Brexit will be delivered at some point for good or ill and b) Corbyn will go and his successor will, I suspect, start to drag Labour back to the centre. There's also the small matter of all the spending promises and other commitments made by Johnson and his Party which will need to be delivered and I suspect the next GE will be much more interesting.
My main concern is that what actually happens is (b) Corbyn will go and his successor will be somebody as extreme or worse, but without the reputational baggage.
If Labour really does become more moderate, and we end up with a properly costed and realistic soft Left manifesto next time around, then I would be mightily relieved. I might even vote for it. But if something sounds too good to be true it typically is.
Amateur psychology effort: as we speak Andrew Marr is sitting down at his desk preparing himself for his most aggressively probing leader interview ever. No holds barred, giving Boris 2 barrels. Can’t let that A.Neil character show him up as weak And second rate. The reputation of the BBC rests on it. That’ll show ‘em. Expect something unusually punchy.
That would be pretty funny, with Boris off his game because he was not expecting such adeptness from Marr and being more successfully caught than if he had sat down with Neil.
To cover a point I raised earlier, labour still have not burst through the 34 ceiling this election. For reference in the 5 polls on the same weekend 2017 their shares were 32, 33, 36, 37, 39
Changing the subject little bit, I watched the news, and the politician take on yesterday’s horror attack.
To be honest, without scoring political points there are questions to be asked soon in order to learn lessons. Why did Tories destroy Labour’s indeterminate sentencing, point of principle because it was illiberal and draconian or to save money? was it down to the clueless Lib Dem part of the coalition? Boris can say it’s fault of Tories in power, and he never agreed with Tories ending Labour’s tough indeterminate sentencing so not his fault? Was he correcting that in his thin manifesto.
The reporting I saw made the point that both parties had done things to make the system as it is.
This will of course not stop one or the other trying to pin it on the other
To cover a point I raised earlier, labour still have not burst through the 34 ceiling this election. For reference in the 5 polls on the same weekend 2017 their shares were 32, 33, 36, 37, 39
I thought they would penetrate that barrier this weekend. They have to burst through it in a number of polls by next Saturday or they are in real trouble. I do still think they can tick upwards but the 40% that would guarantee a hung parliament is looking a long, long way away.
So according to the polls (and a very helpful chap on twitter), polls were showing Labour on broadly 38 12 days out. Being they have not been above 34..this isn't really 2017, is it? God knows anymore
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
Housing affordability and student debt. I'd like to see some the 18-24 group broken down into students/graduates and non-students/graduates. Also between home owners and renters.
Or put more broadly, young people generally see their lives won't be as good as their parent's.
Or their grammar
In other words society is going downhill. There really isn't much space to contest that assessment if your statement is solid, so long as young people aren't kidding themselves. And given that young people are bombarded with advertising as never before, and advertising doesn't usually encourage its target markets to be pessimistic about their futures, they aren't kidding themselves.
How many in that demographic have switched away from Labour to another party or WV? What proportion of old gits care about what those in that demographic feel like and want? Quite a lot of us. They're our children.
Abolishing tuition fees was a huge votewinner for Labour in 2017. Labour are round about where they were in the polls at this stage last time, perhaps a touch (1-2%) worse, at least until tonight's YouGov comes out.
What can the Tories offer to young people? Getting Brexit Done? You only have to say it to realise how ludicrous it is. Brexit doesn't pay your university fees, get you out of debt, or get you on the housing ladder.
So when tuition fees get their news cycle, which they will, Labour will improve in the polls. We're not at Peak Labour.
Amateur psychology effort: as we speak Andrew Marr is sitting down at his desk preparing himself for his most aggressively probing leader interview ever. No holds barred, giving Boris 2 barrels. Can’t let that A.Neil character show him up as weak And second rate. The reputation of the BBC rests on it. That’ll show ‘em. Expect something unusually punchy.
That would be pretty funny, with Boris off his game because he was not expecting such adeptness from Marr and being more successfully caught than if he had sat down with Neil.
The interesting thing for me is I said if we saw a 6 pointer this weekend signs would be looking good for a HP but I honestly thought that would come from Labour being higher not the Tories being lower, which makes me suspicious
It's reasonable to assume that the present agreement indicates that the conventional polls have corrected the systematic error of 2017.
But until election night I doubt we'll be able to dispel the nagging suspicion that the conventional polls are still wrong, as they were last time, and that this time the MRP is wrong as well ...
Well exactly. I'm not an expect, I don't understand what the companies are talking about with their methodologies or whatever system errors exist, so it just seems like being closest to being right is a matter of pure chance.
My gut thought there would be a reasonable but not massive majority last time, and my gut this time thinks the Tories will fall just short of a majority. Probably just a reaction to being wrong last time, but as much as they obsess me I don't really believe polls, so I'm flying blind.
So according to the polls (and a very helpful chap on twitter), polls were showing Labour on broadly 38 12 days out. Being they have not been above 34..this isn't really 2017, is it? God knows anymore
You need to look at the Tory lead over Labour, not the absolute percentages.
Your graph is so helpful - the best data visualisation of the campaign*. Thanks for sharing it so regularly.
Lead has flatlined and marginally ticked up after tonight’s polls. My rush to purchase insurance in the 300-320 Tory bands after the first poll looks premature... but at least I am green now on anything above 300 seats,
Nuggets in Opinium. Satisfied with Johnson: 30% Dissatisfied with Johnson, prefer him over Corbyn: 19% Dissatisfied with Johnson, prefer Corbyn: 29% Don't know: 22% Could this give any indication of where the don't knows might go?
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
There are two ways this goes me thinks. Remainers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and travel to Labour quickly over the next two weeks; Leavers go "fuck we're about to lose this" and head to the Tories over the next two weeks
If enough "Labour Leavers" decide other things are more important to them than a) Brexit and b) Jeremy Corbyn not being the Messiah, the Tories are screwed.
Your graph is so helpful - the best data visualisation of the campaign*. Thanks for sharing it so regularly.
Lead has flatlined and marginally ticked up after tonight’s polls. My rush to purchase insurance in the 300-320 Tory bands after the first poll looks premature... but at least I am green now on anything above 300 seats,
Nuggets in Opinium. Satisfied with Johnson: 30% Dissatisfied with Johnson, prefer him over Corbyn: 19% Dissatisfied with Johnson, prefer Corbyn: 29% Don't know: 22% Could this give any indication of where the don't knows might go?
The article in the observer gives details of the undecideds and where they will more likely go (2 fo 1 to tories)
I've just applied YouGov's poll results to Baxter's forecasting software, including the adjustment for Scottish seats and despite the Tories' headline lead of 9% in this poll, I am shocked to discover that this results in their achieving a majority of just FOUR seats as follows: Con ....... 327 Lab ....... 241 LibDems .. 15 SNP .......... 45 Brexit ........ 0 Greens ...... 1 Plaid ......... 3 N.I. ......... 18 Total ..... 650 Con Maj .... 4
LOL! And I *still* think this weekend is Peak Labour... This is as good as it gets for Lab IMO.
I think midweek was peak Labour.
Notice how Delta has Jezza's personal raiting start to drop, Boris's going up. I suspect that will continue from now to polling day. It could be that mid-week this week was peak
I've just applied YouGov's poll results to Baxter's forecasting software, including the adjustment for Scottish seats and despite the Tories' headline lead of 9% in this poll, I am shocked to discover that this results in their achieving a majority of just FOUR seats as follows: Con ....... 327 Lab ....... 241 LibDems .. 15 SNP .......... 45 Brexit ........ 0 Greens ...... 1 Plaid ......... 3 N.I. ......... 18 Total ..... 650 Con Maj .... 4
LOL! And I *still* think this weekend is Peak Labour... This is as good as it gets for Lab IMO.
I think midweek was peak Labour.
Notice how Delta has Jezza's personal raiting start to drop, Boris's going up. I suspect that will continue from now to polling day. It could be that mid-week this week was peak
Oops.. meant to post that Boris's,s statement after the terrorist attack did not impress me. Right words lacking the necessary gravitas.
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
Housing affordability and student debt. I'd like to see some the 18-24 group broken down into students/graduates and non-students/graduates. Also between home owners and renters.
Or put more broadly, young people generally see their lives won't be as good as their parent's.
Or their grammar
In other words society is going downhill. There really isn't much space to contest that assessment if your statement is solid, so long as young people aren't kidding themselves. And given that young people are bombarded with advertising as never before, and advertising doesn't usually encourage its target markets to be pessimistic about their futures, they aren't kidding themselves.
How many in that demographic have switched away from Labour to another party or WV? What proportion of old gits care about what those in that demographic feel like and want? Quite a lot of us. They're our children.
Abolishing tuition fees was a huge votewinner for Labour in 2017. Labour are round about where they were in the polls at this stage last time, perhaps a touch (1-2%) worse, at least until tonight's YouGov comes out.
What can the Tories offer to young people? Getting Brexit Done? You only have to say it to realise how ludicrous it is. Brexit doesn't pay your university fees, get you out of debt, or get you on the housing ladder.
So when tuition fees get their news cycle, which they will, Labour will improve in the polls. We're not at Peak Labour.
Tuition fees have been in the news cycle for over two years as Labour's policy hasn't changed since 2017.
I've just applied YouGov's poll results to Baxter's forecasting software, including the adjustment for Scottish seats and despite the Tories' headline lead of 9% in this poll, I am shocked to discover that this results in their achieving a majority of just FOUR seats as follows: Con ....... 327 Lab ....... 241 LibDems .. 15 SNP .......... 45 Brexit ........ 0 Greens ...... 1 Plaid ......... 3 N.I. ......... 18 Total ..... 650 Con Maj .... 4
Green at 3% means Labour can squeeze them presumably - and that's what normally happens. Re turnout, the 65+ turnout is higher than 2017, is there much evidence it is going to go up? I can't see how they conclude that but conclude young turnout is going to drop!
If it was 62% in 2017 and Labour are polling lower then you would expect it to be below 60% this time. Certainly doesn’t feel given its December and Corbyn is old news that youth turnout will hit new highs.
Tory hopes of a majority are over. It's all about the hung parliament now.
On a night when 3 of the 5 polls out show double digit leads and one of the other 2 is at 9, this must be the most ridiculous and spectacularly wrongheaded comment
YouGov's latest effort reports Labour leads of 26% (41%-15%) among 18-24s and 11% (31%-20%) among 25-49s, and Tory leads of 20% (40%-20%) among 50-64s and 37% (51%-14%) among those aged 65+, DK/WV/WS not discounted.
If it was 62% in 2017 and Labour are polling lower then you would expect it to be below 60% this time. Certainly doesn’t feel given its December and Corbyn is old news that youth turnout will hit new highs.
Well if you want any early signs, registration has broken all previous records for the young. Of course if they vote is another story - but the signs we have so far are that things are not going down as Opinium suggests
My main concern is that what actually happens is (b) Corbyn will go and his successor will be somebody as extreme or worse, but without the reputational baggage.
If Labour really does become more moderate, and we end up with a properly costed and realistic soft Left manifesto next time around, then I would be mightily relieved. I might even vote for it. But if something sounds too good to be true it typically is.
With 14 years in Government and despite numerous re-inventions, the Conservatives in 2024 will I think look tired and out of touch. Against a new, moderate Labour leader there will only be one winner and for the slow-witted on here, it won't be the Tories.
YouGov's latest effort reports Labour leads of 26% (41%-15%) among 18-24s and 11% (31%-20%) among 25-49s, and Tory leads of 20% (40%-20%) among 50-64s and 37% (51%-14%) among those aged 65+, DK/WV/WS not discounted.
Labour is leading amongst anyone under the age of 50, which is as per 2017 right? But is that an improvement from earlier this year? I thought Tories lead with higher up in the 25-49 group for a bit?
Tory hopes of a majority are over. It's all about the hung parliament now.
We’ve all had a drink. Tonight’s polls are pretty decent for the Tories. They are in a bit better shape than 2 years ago when there was a real Labour surge. They need a more visible and competent final full week of campaigning though to ensure the leads don’t drop into hung parliament territory.
YouGov's latest effort reports Labour leads of 26% (41%-15%) among 18-24s and 11% (31%-20%) among 25-49s, and Tory leads of 20% (40%-20%) among 50-64s and 37% (51%-14%) among those aged 65+, DK/WV/WS not discounted.
Labour is leading amongst anyone under the age of 50, which is as per 2017 right? But is that an improvement from earlier this year? I thought Tories lead with higher up in the 25-49 group for a bit?
25-49 an unusual age bracket. Usually it would be split in two
The BMG looks like a possible outlier (39% Con is the first sub-40% value for them since a survey by the same pollster published a couple of weeks ago.) However, if we take an average of the middle three polls, omitting both the highest and lowest Con values, we get:
Con average: 43.7% Lab average: 33.0%
Con lead: 10.7% (so as near as makes no difference to the same)
Comparable figures from the Britain Elects tracker, issued yesterday afternoon:
Con: 42.4% Lab: 30.9%
Con lead: 11.5%
Indicates a squeeze might be occurring, with yesterday's tracker itself representing a 1% narrowing since that compiled on November 25th. Basically suggests Labour might have caught up by about 2% this week.
However, thanks to the wonder of Wikipedia, I've also been able to tot up the published Tory lead in every national VI poll taken since the dissolution of Parliament (i.e. 43 separate surveys,) and the mean of all the values comes to 11.4%. That, of course, is virtually identical to yesterday's tracker. So the small tightening indicated by tonight's polls, which is well within MoE, could just be noise.
Green at 3% means Labour can squeeze them presumably - and that's what normally happens. Re turnout, the 65+ turnout is higher than 2017, is there much evidence it is going to go up? I can't see how they conclude that but conclude young turnout is going to drop!
Could you turn the volume down a little, 9 perhaps. Post less, think more?
They also say 65+ turnout in 2017 was 75%, they reckon it will go up by 5 points? Why?
Fear of Jez actually winning.
The highest turnout since at least 1964 though? With youth turnout dropping? I really don't see it
I do, there's no enthusiasm for Jez this time like there was in 2017 and there is a lot more fear that he might actually win after 2017.
I can tell you there's a lot of enthusiasm amongst the young (anecdotal of course) moreso than last time, because they think they can actually win. So I guess for the same reason you've cited.
Comments
Foreign interventions are making the UK less safe , this is similar to Trumps appeal in the 2016 US election with a less interventionist stance .
I do wonder what either has left in store anymore, as it feels like a waste of another nearly 2 weeks. There'll be the probably student debt right off from Labour, but I'm not sure what the Tories' attempt at momentum setting will be.
-4
0
-7
-2
+3
-2
-2
-2
-5
I think average -2.33
Labour need movement to continue to have any chance of stopping a majority
I'm still sceptical that the Labour Leavers will actually turn out for the Tories. But, frankly, we just don't know.
Is there a new Survation?
To be honest, without scoring political points there are questions to be asked soon in order to learn lessons.
Why did Tories destroy Labour’s indeterminate sentencing, point of principle because it was illiberal and draconian or to save money? was it down to the clueless Lib Dem part of the coalition?
Boris can say it’s fault of Tories in power, and he never agreed with Tories ending Labour’s tough indeterminate sentencing so not his fault? Was he correcting that in his thin manifesto.
Thank god as the thought of the marxists anywhere near power was not a good one
Thought Workington was toss up in MRP based on 11% lead.
At 9 wont it be leans Lab??
Many people haven't yet engaged and there is, in any number of constituencies, all to play for. As OGH tells us, this isn't one election but 650 local elections and each one has its differences and nuances.
IF the Conservatives are still in this position this time next week it will be over - IF the BMG figures are a trend and become more representative, the last three or four days are going to be "interesting".
Johnson needs the majority as I said earlier - if he fails to achieve that his options and futute become much more limited. That does NOT mean Jeremy Corbyn becomes Prime Minister but Johnson's Brexit strategy will be in serious trouble.
But the lead in the YouGov MRP is seven points higher than it was in 2017.
The leads from those two sources are now comparable, whereas they were quite different in 2017. It's reasonable to assume that the present agreement indicates that the conventional polls have corrected the systematic error of 2017.
But until election night I doubt we'll be able to dispel the nagging suspicion that the conventional polls are still wrong, as they were last time, and that this time the MRP is wrong as well ...
If Labour really does become more moderate, and we end up with a properly costed and realistic soft Left manifesto next time around, then I would be mightily relieved. I might even vote for it. But if something sounds too good to be true it typically is.
Since then polls are now back to the position where they were standing everywhere are we not
This will of course not stop one or the other trying to pin it on the other
He whips off an Andrew Marr mask, Scooby Doo style.
'Why, it's Old Man Brillo'.
In other words society is going downhill. There really isn't much space to contest that assessment if your statement is solid, so long as young people aren't kidding themselves. And given that young people are bombarded with advertising as never before, and advertising doesn't usually encourage its target markets to be pessimistic about their futures, they aren't kidding themselves.
Two years ago, 61.5% of voters under 40 voted Labour, according to research by YouGov.
How many in that demographic have switched away from Labour to another party or WV? What proportion of old gits care about what those in that demographic feel like and want? Quite a lot of us. They're our children.
Abolishing tuition fees was a huge votewinner for Labour in 2017. Labour are round about where they were in the polls at this stage last time, perhaps a touch (1-2%) worse, at least until tonight's YouGov comes out.
What can the Tories offer to young people? Getting Brexit Done? You only have to say it to realise how ludicrous it is. Brexit doesn't pay your university fees, get you out of debt, or get you on the housing ladder.
So when tuition fees get their news cycle, which they will, Labour will improve in the polls. We're not at Peak Labour.
That's very good. I shall remember that.
(I must admit, some imperial units seem very weird to me. Like fluid ounces. I mean, wtf?)
My gut thought there would be a reasonable but not massive majority last time, and my gut this time thinks the Tories will fall just short of a majority. Probably just a reaction to being wrong last time, but as much as they obsess me I don't really believe polls, so I'm flying blind.
Your graph is so helpful - the best data visualisation of the campaign*. Thanks for sharing it so regularly.
Lead has flatlined and marginally ticked up after tonight’s polls. My rush to purchase insurance in the 300-320 Tory bands after the first poll looks premature... but at least I am green now on anything above 300 seats,
*After @Statistitching on Twitter!
Tory majority of 8
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
The spreadsheet also has MRP and constituency polls where available for comparision.
Assumptions at the bottom.
Satisfied with Johnson: 30%
Dissatisfied with Johnson, prefer him over Corbyn: 19%
Dissatisfied with Johnson, prefer Corbyn: 29%
Don't know: 22%
Could this give any indication of where the don't knows might go?
18-34: 57%
35-44: 63%
45-54: 66%
55-64: 69%
65+: 80%
2017 18-24 was around 62%, 25-34 was around 62%, I see no evidence this is going to drop, so why are Opinium thinking it will?
Con ....... 327
Lab ....... 241
LibDems .. 15
SNP .......... 45
Brexit ........ 0
Greens ...... 1
Plaid ......... 3
N.I. ......... 18
Total ..... 650
Con Maj .... 4
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42747342
Re turnout, the 65+ turnout is higher than 2017, is there much evidence it is going to go up? I can't see how they conclude that but conclude young turnout is going to drop!
2017 has 18-24 above 60%
i see nos in the low 1000s?
1.51 £143 £175,935
1.52 £2,832 £167,134
1.53 £472 £234,272
1.54 £3,500 £407,846
1.55 £1,692 £222,650
Against a new, moderate Labour leader there will only be one winner and for the slow-witted on here, it won't be the Tories.
25-49 an unusual age bracket. Usually it would be split in two
Summary of tonight's polls.
Con average: 43.2%
Lab average: 32.6%
Con lead: 10.6%
The BMG looks like a possible outlier (39% Con is the first sub-40% value for them since a survey by the same pollster published a couple of weeks ago.) However, if we take an average of the middle three polls, omitting both the highest and lowest Con values, we get:
Con average: 43.7%
Lab average: 33.0%
Con lead: 10.7% (so as near as makes no difference to the same)
Comparable figures from the Britain Elects tracker, issued yesterday afternoon:
Con: 42.4%
Lab: 30.9%
Con lead: 11.5%
Indicates a squeeze might be occurring, with yesterday's tracker itself representing a 1% narrowing since that compiled on November 25th. Basically suggests Labour might have caught up by about 2% this week.
However, thanks to the wonder of Wikipedia, I've also been able to tot up the published Tory lead in every national VI poll taken since the dissolution of Parliament (i.e. 43 separate surveys,) and the mean of all the values comes to 11.4%. That, of course, is virtually identical to yesterday's tracker. So the small tightening indicated by tonight's polls, which is well within MoE, could just be noise.
More data required.
Let's hope the final result is similar.
Interesting