"Are the Tories really on course for a majority if these two constituency polls are accurate?"
Possibly. If the next clutch of constituency polls includes more Lab-Con marginals and they also stack up with the YouGov model - which rates Portsmouth South as 'Likely Lab', top Tory target or not - then I might start to revise my opinion of Conservative chances. It looks like YouGov might just have been doing their homework properly.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
Why not? We kowtow to the USA.
No we don't, we have a 'special relationship'.
Which means British lives and money are wasted in American wars and in return British politicians get to posture about the world pretending to be more important than they are.
If the good voters of Esher and Walton do aim Raab out it will be a just outcome for his obsequious handling of the killing of that kid by the the US Diplomat's wife.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
Why not? We kowtow to the USA.
No we don't, we have a 'special relationship'.
Which means British lives and money are wasted in American wars and in return British politicians get to posture about the world pretending to be more important than they are.
If the good voters of Esher and Walton do aim Raab out it will be a just outcome for his obsequious handling of the killing of that kid by the the US Diplomat's wife.
If we get a strong leave majority, but as many ERG mutters gone as possible, it’ll be all my dreams come true.
"Are the Tories really on course for a majority if these two constituency polls are accurate?"
Possibly. If the next clutch of constituency polls includes more Lab-Con marginals and they also stack up with the YouGov model - which rates Portsmouth South as 'Likely Lab', top Tory target or not - then I might start to revise my opinion of Conservative chances. It looks like YouGov might just have been doing their homework properly.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them reveal some kind of "Labour dividend" of £1000 per adult person if they win as a final roll of the dice. They are losing and they know it.
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
Raab has to be gone. What Labour voter wouldn't back the Lib Dems in this situation just for shits and giggles?
How will he be gone? He has a 5 point lead and tactical voting has been maxed out pretty much, and that’s before an expected Lib to Tory swing in the final week, and aren’t Deltapoll the best pollsters for the lib dems?
You’d think Raab was 5 points behind not ahead!
The problem is, there may not be a "Lib to Tory swing in the final week".
I mean, there might be. But then again, there might not be.
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
And via one of the spreadsheets, potentially calibrate the answer as results come in I guess?
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student debt at us yet. Good grief.
"Are the Tories really on course for a majority if these two constituency polls are accurate?"
Possibly. If the next clutch of constituency polls includes more Lab-Con marginals and they also stack up with the YouGov model - which rates Portsmouth South as 'Likely Lab', top Tory target or not - then I might start to revise my opinion of Conservative chances. It looks like YouGov might just have been doing their homework properly.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them reveal some kind of "Labour dividend" of £1000 per adult person if they win as a final roll of the dice. They are losing and they know it.
The Torys need to come out with a you can not borrow the amount of money labour say they will without mortgage interest rates rising substantially, because the base rate would need to increase.
Then produce a list of mortgage levels in 100's of K and the new repayment increase over current. Couple this with the video of Corbyn on Neil not even understanding what debt is and hammer the message home.
"There is no such thing as free money your mortgage will increase by xxx thousands per year."
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
And via one of the spreadsheets, potentially calibrate the answer as results come in I guess?
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
And via one of the spreadsheets, potentially calibrate the answer as results come in I guess?
"Are the Tories really on course for a majority if these two constituency polls are accurate?"
Possibly. If the next clutch of constituency polls includes more Lab-Con marginals and they also stack up with the YouGov model - which rates Portsmouth South as 'Likely Lab', top Tory target or not - then I might start to revise my opinion of Conservative chances. It looks like YouGov might just have been doing their homework properly.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them reveal some kind of "Labour dividend" of £1000 per adult person if they win as a final roll of the dice. They are losing and they know it.
I like this 'Labour dividend' idea and at £1k per capita, that's £65bn - not a lot of money for the 5th richest country in the world. I think the dividend could be tweaked though, so the £65bn is more justly and fairly distributed only to inveterate LibDem voters in Lab/Con marginal seats. #cash4camelidjustice
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
I hope you didn’t get too excited! Look two compliments in one day is pushing it I have to revert to type!
I am sure Hyufd will assist by refraining from making more than one sensible post per day.
It actually takes a lot of effort to read posts when they fly through. It is a shame the password thing made people change their identities so in many cases our perception of their views has gone back to zero until we work out who they are. It is possible that giving him credit for his more sensible views will help him from the more extreme views. I know I’m an extremist in the true definition of what it means but we need to be realistic and face into a Tory majority of 60+ as I’ve said before the only positive of such a result is if corbyn is consigned to the bin of history if he is not then you will be stuck with an ever more right wing uncaring government that think they can get away with anything.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
You’re probably right. We should switch from loan to graduate tax - gets rid of the stigma of “debt”, and return fees to £3k. That would be sold as my Brexit dividend. Optics would be good all round.
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
What I find most striking is the fact that Deltapoll and YouGov have used different samples and different methodologies at different times and come to strikingly similar conclusions - the Lab hold against national swing in Portsmouth South and the tight race in Esher & Walton in particular. Logically, they'd have to be making pretty much the same errors entirely independently of one another for these values to be a long way out.
The "at different times" element is most crucial here. The YouGov MRP model is based on data gathered well in advance of Deltapoll - and, therefore, also well in advance of the more recent national VI surveys suggesting moderately improved Labour performance. It might even be that the constituency level numbers are giving a better indication of opinion than the nationwide VI this time around, although of course it is too early to tell.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
You’re probably right. We should switch from loan to graduate tax - gets rid of the stigma of “debt”, and return fees to £3k. That would be sold as my Brexit dividend. Optics would be good all round.
Nah, we can't use the phrase brexit dividend with younger voters, it's not credible. Just call if righting a wrong and owning up to our mistake on fees. Voters love a bit of humility and contrition from the governing party.
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
And via one of the spreadsheets, potentially calibrate the answer as results come in I guess?
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
And via one of the spreadsheets, potentially calibrate the answer as results come in I guess?
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
Obama used to fly around in an Osprey. Three of them did a practice run over Lord's during a county match back in 2016. I assume Trump needs a motorcade to get about the West End. I'm sure he'll be well received by commuters, xmas shoppers and couriers. Not to mention journalists hanging onto his every word.
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
What I find most striking is the fact that Deltapoll and YouGov have used different samples and different methodologies at different times and come to strikingly similar conclusions - the Lab hold against national swing in Portsmouth South and the tight race in Esher & Walton in particular. Logically, they'd have to be making pretty much the same errors entirely independently of one another for these values to be a long way out.
The "at different times" element is most crucial here. The YouGov MRP model is based on data gathered well in advance of Deltapoll - and, therefore, also well in advance of the more recent national VI surveys suggesting moderately improved Labour performance. It might even be that the constituency level numbers are giving a better indication of opinion than the nationwide VI this time around, although of course it is too early to tell.
That's precisely why it's so exciting from a polling point of view: two different methods with the same results within a margin of error.
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
You’re probably right. We should switch from loan to graduate tax - gets rid of the stigma of “debt”, and return fees to £3k. That would be sold as my Brexit dividend. Optics would be good all round.
Nah, we can't use the phrase brexit dividend with younger voters, it's not credible. Just call if righting a wrong and owning up to our mistake on fees. Voters love a bit of humility and contrition from the governing party.
I think you could - investing in future skills to unleash our global potential, etc. It’d go down well with Tory soft remainers and Lib Dem right. And as you say, anything to neutralise Labour in this cohort would be good.
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
And via one of the spreadsheets, potentially calibrate the answer as results come in I guess?
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
You’re probably right. We should switch from loan to graduate tax - gets rid of the stigma of “debt”, and return fees to £3k. That would be sold as my Brexit dividend. Optics would be good all round.
Nah, we can't use the phrase brexit dividend with younger voters, it's not credible. Just call if righting a wrong and owning up to our mistake on fees. Voters love a bit of humility and contrition from the governing party.
Sure, it can't be done now though. McD would leap all over it. Something to look at next parliament
In our latest poll we have the Brexit Party hitting a low of 2%, while the two largest parties continue their squeeze on the smaller parties. #GE2019 https://t.co/GAdD2es6HG
If the Brexit party are down to 2% and that accounts for cons 46% it is going to be a very bad night for labour in the north
Average of tonight's 3 polls so far: Con 42.7% Lab 32.3% LD 13.0% BRX 3.3% Grn 3.3% In line with the national YouGov MRP figures, and the constituency polls are also in line with the constituency YouGov MRP figures.
Black_Rook: as you say, the YouGov MRP study is looking very credible when compared to these new constituency polls. If we get many more constituency polls which are in line with MRP, it'll start to look like we can pretty much use it to predict the election, assuming the national shares remain at about 43/32/14.
And via one of the spreadsheets, potentially calibrate the answer as results come in I guess?
No, I said they'd probably sell those polls to city traders first then release them later
Edit; I have no idea if those polls exist - speculating.
City traders know jack shit.
I have a good friend of mine who regularly texts me about politics and then fails to make any money out of my tips.
Well you could look at that from two different view points did he react to your tips or ignored them. My totally unscientific betting tip is if the Tory spreads are 355 then buy if labour are 250 then sell the labour downside is a massive potential money winner
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
Obama used to fly around in an Osprey. Three of them did a practice run over Lord's during a county match back in 2016. I assume Trump needs a motorcade to get about the West End. I'm sure he'll be well received by commuters, xmas shoppers and couriers. Not to mention journalists hanging onto his every word.
I doubt they will see much of him, his entourage will keep the public well back
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
Why not? We kowtow to the USA.
No we don't, we have a 'special relationship'.
Which means British lives and money are wasted in American wars and in return British politicians get to posture about the world pretending to be more important than they are.
If the good voters of Esher and Walton do aim Raab out it will be a just outcome for his obsequious handling of the killing of that kid by the the US Diplomat's wife.
If we get a strong leave majority, but as many ERG mutters gone as possible, it’ll be all my dreams come true.
What's the total strength of the ERG - 30? Certainly no more than 50?
Any Tory majority in excess of that and they'd be pretty much powerless anyway (though for what it's worth, having backed Johnson and voted for his Withdrawal Agreement, they're all onboard with his project anyway - there's not much political room for a volte face that might imperil the Leaver Government they've always wanted.)
It didn't in the US, in the popular vote it was not far off with Hillary ahead by 3.8%.
In the Electoral College though it had Hillary ahead 317 to 221 for Trump, albeit with Trump ahead in Ohio and close races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
Average of tonight's 3 polls so far: Con 42.7% Lab 32.3% LD 13.0% BRX 3.3% Grn 3.3% In line with the national MRP figures, and the constituency polls are also in line with the constituency MRP figures.
Without the Opinium poll which presumably inflates the Tory lead significantly, Tories on 41, Labour 33 which to me seems about right
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
Obama used to fly around in an Osprey. Three of them did a practice run over Lord's during a county match back in 2016. I assume Trump needs a motorcade to get about the West End. I'm sure he'll be well received by commuters, xmas shoppers and couriers. Not to mention journalists hanging onto his every word.
The US President’s travel plans are a complete nightmare to anyone who comes close to them. Meanwhile two or three cars and half a dozen police bikes (and some very funky traffic lights) can get our own PM from Downing St to Northolt in about 15 minutes.
Huge shift in prices in Portsmouth South. Lib Dems have collapsed from FAV to 20/1.
Best prices:
Lab 11/10 Con 7/4 LD 20/1
The contrast between Deltapoll and the LD Survation poll for Portsmouth S is really quite stark and the difference in dates surely can't account for that much of it. I think this reinforces the suspicion that the LDs must have commissioned a lot more constituency polls with Survation, all with relatively small samples thus ensuring a lot of random sample variation, and then published only the results which they liked.
Comments
Possibly. If the next clutch of constituency polls includes more Lab-Con marginals and they also stack up with the YouGov model - which rates Portsmouth South as 'Likely Lab', top Tory target or not - then I might start to revise my opinion of Conservative chances. It looks like YouGov might just have been doing their homework properly.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/13/this-new-polling-method-predicted-trumps-win-while-we-were-testing-it/
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them reveal some kind of "Labour dividend" of £1000 per adult person if they win as a final roll of the dice. They are losing and they know it.
10% and 15% would certainly give a comfortable majority.
I mean, there might be. But then again, there might not be.
Best prices:
Lab 11/10
Con 7/4
LD 20/1
Then produce a list of mortgage levels in 100's of K and the new repayment increase over current. Couple this with the video of Corbyn on Neil not even understanding what debt is and hammer the message home.
"There is no such thing as free money your mortgage will increase by xxx thousands per year."
Edit - unless one of the Sundays has hired them to do one
ComRes: 33%
Opinium: 31%
Average = 32.3%.
Whitechapel,
LONDON
E1 1RD
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
Anything in this?
I last looked this afternoon when it was 3.45.
Maybe its (over?) reacting to the Portsmouth poll?
Edit; I have no idea if those polls exist - speculating.
It's cold in this pub. I will move into nichomar s hacienda if LAB win
#cash4camelidjustice
There's no change in the gap compared to two or four weeks ago but both Con and Lab are up a bit.
Any idea of their method and why it's so generous to the Tories?
The "at different times" element is most crucial here. The YouGov MRP model is based on data gathered well in advance of Deltapoll - and, therefore, also well in advance of the more recent national VI surveys suggesting moderately improved Labour performance. It might even be that the constituency level numbers are giving a better indication of opinion than the nationwide VI this time around, although of course it is too early to tell.
I have a good friend of mine who regularly texts me about politics and then fails to make any money out of my tips.
If the Brexit party are down to 2% and that accounts for cons 46% it is going to be a very bad night for labour in the north
Con 42.7%
Lab 32.3%
LD 13.0%
BRX 3.3%
Grn 3.3%
In line with the national YouGov MRP figures, and the constituency polls are also in line with the constituency YouGov MRP figures.
Any Tory majority in excess of that and they'd be pretty much powerless anyway (though for what it's worth, having backed Johnson and voted for his Withdrawal Agreement, they're all onboard with his project anyway - there's not much political room for a volte face that might imperil the Leaver Government they've always wanted.)
In the Electoral College though it had Hillary ahead 317 to 221 for Trump, albeit with Trump ahead in Ohio and close races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
I think it's an outlier - but I'm nearly always wrong so feel free to ignore!
Brexit and Tory party support really that interchangeable? Even in labour areas?