As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
You’re probably right. We should switch from loan to graduate tax - gets rid of the stigma of “debt”, and return fees to £3k. That would be sold as my Brexit dividend. Optics would be good all round.
Nah, we can't use the phrase brexit dividend with younger voters, it's not credible. Just call if righting a wrong and owning up to our mistake on fees. Voters love a bit of humility and contrition from the governing party.
I think you could - investing in future skills to unleash our global potential, etc. It’d go down well with Tory soft remainers and Lib Dem right. And as you say, anything to neutralise Labour in this cohort would be good.
Legalise weed. Tax it. Promise to spend every extra penny raised on the NHS. I'd vote for it. And I haven't smoked dope since I was a student. But people are going to smoke it whether it's legal or not and it seems like a massive opportunity for the Tories. Particularly if it's tied to the NHS.
I’m completely amazed that neither the Tories nor Labour have gone near drugs policy during the campaign - I guess they both see it as too divisive an issue, as likely to lose votes as win them. As was mentioned on here briefly earlier, one of the most interesting policy programmes anywhere in recent years, has been the decriminalisation of drugs in Portugal.
For anyone who would like a calming, beautiful and fascinating documentary to watch - instead of worrying about polls - check out The Lake District: A Wild Year on BBC4 and available on iPlayer. I really cannot wait to move there. With luck, by the time of my birthday in February ...... 🤞
I might do that.
This election is far too stressful.
I was out in Clumber Park this morning, the frost made it look magnificent.
Disappointing polls for Labour and the potential cancellation of Brexit. Tory majority of 30-50 highly likely now. That's my betting position. Corbyn an obvious drag unlike 2017. Labour needs to start thinking post GE - is there any hope of a revivial?
It isn't right or healthy for the politics of the generations to be that heavily polarised.
Housing affordability and student debt. I'd like to see some the 18-24 group broken down into students/graduates and non-students/graduates. Also between home owners and renters.
Or put more broadly, young people generally see their lives won't be as good as their parent's.
We have deltapoll and yougov to come confirmed plus I guess a random Sun or Mirror poll if theyve bothered
Will those polls shift the current average tonight of 42.7/32.3/13.0/ very much? I'd be surprised if they do.
Well when the Tory lead in one poll is so massive not really. Whether you think that's an outlier or not, will I guess determine your views on that.
I think it's an outlier - but I'm nearly always wrong so feel free to ignore!
I’d imagine Opinium share and BMG share both wrong. When you add up the leave vote you’d expect Tories between 40 and 45.
Fair point.
No it’s not it wholly wrong. A lot of Tory share are remainers lab and Lib in particular have failed to coax away, lab share contains fair portion of leavers labour need to hold. That is what this election is about here on in and the counting of the con + BREX and lab Lib green is not believing it’s all leave v remain voters but if the gap grows or not, and it’s definitely not, indicates how stealing holding is going, growing = good for remain. I counted it last week and despite good Tory night it didn’t shrink much, tonight it hasn’t grown much either.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Does her credit.
And it would do Britain credit to make such a gesture. Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
I know, I know.
I'm deeply embarrassed and ashamed of our feet dragging on this. God knows what they think of us in Hong Kong. They were waving British flags a year ago. They've given up now and switched to stars and stripes.
I consider us standing by Hong Kong a matter of national honour.
Since the handover Hong Kong is not a UK responsibility and realistically only the US can stand up to China and press for Hong Kong autonomy anyway, we can back them but not much more
No, we have a moral duty in the UK-Sino Agreement.
And Britain is about standing up for the right thing wherever in the world no matter how big and powerful they are.
God forbid that we see another Tiananmen Square massacre, but if anything like that happens, or seems likely to happen, we really need to offer a way out for as many Hong Kong citizens as can leave. Unfortunately China under the rule of Xi Jinping is regressing politically and socially even as the economy continues to boom. The liberalising aspects of trade are being checked by the Chinese government that clearly fears their long term effects.
LOL! And I *still* think this weekend is Peak Labour... This is as good as it gets for Lab IMO.
I think midweek was peak Labour.
Notice how Delta has Jezza's personal raiting start to drop, Boris's going up. I suspect that will continue from now to polling day. It could be that mid-week this week was peak Labour!
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Does her credit.
And it would do Britain credit to make such a gesture. Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
I know, I know.
I'm deeply embarrassed and ashamed of our feet dragging on this. God knows what they think of us in Hong Kong. They were waving British flags a year ago. They've given up now and switched to stars and stripes.
I consider us standing by Hong Kong a matter of national honour.
Since the handover Hong Kong is not a UK responsibility and realistically only the US can stand up to China and press for Hong Kong autonomy anyway, we can back them but not much more
No, we have a moral duty in the UK-Sino Agreement.
And Britain is about standing up for the right thing wherever in the world no matter how big and powerful they are.
China has a bigger military than us and a bigger economy than us, as I said only the US can realistically stand up to China as the world's foremost economic and military power.
We can support the US, little more
We can exercise moral and diplomatic leadership and assemble a coalition of nations in economic pressure and in hard containment too, if necessary.
Forgot to mention I passed the Presidential motorcade this afternoon on the way to Chingford from Harlow, ahead of the NATO summit this week in London
Obama used to fly around in an Osprey. Three of them did a practice run over Lord's during a county match back in 2016. I assume Trump needs a motorcade to get about the West End. I'm sure he'll be well received by commuters, xmas shoppers and couriers. Not to mention journalists hanging onto his every word.
The US President’s travel plans are a complete nightmare to anyone who comes close to them. Meanwhile two or three cars and half a dozen police bikes (and some very funky traffic lights) can get our own PM from Downing St to Northolt in about 15 minutes.
Saw two helicopters flying in close formation above Holland Park earlier today.
Yes getting ready for Trump's arrival
Yes, and I saw them fly back towards the west a short while afterward.
LOL! And I *still* think this weekend is Peak Labour... This is as good as it gets for Lab IMO.
Why say such things Gin?
Open to uber-hubris if the mood changes in a week.
Which it very easily could.
I'm just consistent with what I've said all the way along. All the Tory bedwetting on here hasn't caused me to change my mind that Conservatives will win a majority of 30-40 seats on a 10% lead
As I've said for the last week during this Tory wobble, this isn't 2017. Our campaign is uninspiring, not complete crap. I'm fairly confident that we'll get a ~60 seat majority, nothing has really changed in the last couple of weeks to suggest that we won't. Labour have waved £139bn in cash to voters and it resulted in a ~2% swing. Their cupboard is empty and the momentum is with us now that they have run out of taxpayer money to bribe voters with.
I think they’ll throw cancelling student at us yet. Good grief.
That's not going to shift any additional votes in their favour, they already have the student and young graduate vote sewn up.
If we came up with a credible policy it would really hurt Labour.
You’re probably right. We should switch from loan to graduate tax - gets rid of the stigma of “debt”, and return fees to £3k. That would be sold as my Brexit dividend. Optics would be good all round.
Nah, we can't use the phrase brexit dividend with younger voters, it's not credible. Just call if righting a wrong and owning up to our mistake on fees. Voters love a bit of humility and contrition from the governing party.
I think you could - investing in future skills to unleash our global potential, etc. It’d go down well with Tory soft remainers and Lib Dem right. And as you say, anything to neutralise Labour in this cohort would be good.
Legalise weed. Tax it. Promise to spend every extra penny raised on the NHS.
I'd vote for it. And I haven't smoked dope since I was a student.
But people are going to smoke it whether it's legal or not and it seems like a massive opportunity for the Tories. Particularly if it's tied to the NHS.
100% agreed.
Make it an educational, fiscal, healthcare issue . . . not a criminal one.
I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.
FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
If true, it speaks well of Patel. Perhaps a result of her own background. Her parents were a Ugandan Asians given refuge here by Heath, weren’t they?
It does. I'm not sure she's even arguing for full BNO settlement rights either - just for the UK to be a temporary safe haven for those most at risk.
Does her credit.
And it would do Britain credit to make such a gesture. Even Trump, for God’s sake, has passed law obliging the US to check on whether the Chinese are standing by their promises to HK.
I know, I know.
I'm deeply embarrassed and ashamed of our feet dragging on this. God knows what they think of us in Hong Kong. They were waving British flags a year ago. They've given up now and switched to stars and stripes.
I consider us standing by Hong Kong a matter of national honour.
Since the handover Hong Kong is not a UK responsibility and realistically only the US can stand up to China and press for Hong Kong autonomy anyway, we can back them but not much more
No, we have a moral duty in the UK-Sino Agreement.
And Britain is about standing up for the right thing wherever in the world no matter how big and powerful they are.
God forbid that we see another Tiananmen Square massacre, but if anything like that happens, or seems likely to happen, we really need to offer a way out for as many Hong Kong citizens as can leave. Unfortunately China under the rule of Xi Jinping is regressing politically and socially even as the economy continues to boom. The liberalising aspects of trade are being checked by the Chinese government that clearly fears their long term effects.
Yes, China is heading to a very dark place.
Witness the nationwide compulsory face scans for buying a new smartphone announced last week.
LOL! And I *still* think this weekend is Peak Labour... This is as good as it gets for Lab IMO.
I think midweek was peak Labour.
Notice how Delta has Jezza's personal raiting start to drop, Boris's going up. I suspect that will continue from now to polling day. It could be that mid-week this week was peak Labour!
Or not.
YG seems to be narrowing will be interesting if there is a new MRP midweek.
I go for Tory Maj 40 in next MRP and 10 to 20 in real thing.
Current polls counting those that ended field work at Nov 25 or later: Delta +13(0) Opinium +15(-4) BMG +6(-7) ComRes +10(+3) PanelBase +8(-5) Kantar +10(-8) ICM +7(-3) YouGov 9(-2) Current average margin: +9.5 Still Waiting On: IpsosMori (+16 prev) Survation (+11 prev)
So the trend seems to be Labour has gained about two points, is that fair?
Yes I think there has/was a slight swing to Labour in the last week but I suspect Delta Poll is telling us that is probably already being snuffed out as polling day gets closer.
The rather better polls overall tonight for the Tories along with evidence of weakness for them in the south suggests, if it pans out that there could be a big re-alignment going on in British politics. If so the Brexit effect could prove to be quite profound in its impact.
The Tory heartland shifting further to the North and West, possibly? Dominating in East Anglia, the Midlands and the South-West as their majorities erode in the South-East? It's possible.
If we look at the EU referendum results map, there are strong concentrations of Remain-majority counting areas in most of London, West Sussex, Surrey, eastern Hampshire, and roughly along the London-Oxford-Bristol corridor. Perhaps leafy West London and the most wealthy shire counties is where we should be looking for a major revival of the Liberal Democrats, if and when this occurs? The route to a significant Parliamentary revival in their traditional South-Western powerbase might be closed to them.
There's precious little joy for Remain in most of the rest of England. Labour support outside of London may well contract around some of these remaining urban nuclei, along with the areas containing the highest concentrations of students, black and Muslim voters, and the very deprived.
Be interesting to see if Labour has gone up any more by the time the next MRP comes out, their direction of travel seems to still be as implied by their post, i.e. towards 7 points and a HP. But will it have gone down enough by then, who knows? To me, it seems as though Labour is slowly gaining - but perhaps not fast enough.
I know I keep saying this but Labour on there is kind of freaky. It mirrors 2017 almost perfectly, even down to the small bumps as each week goes by. They're just lower down. Creepy
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
I guess I'm just a bit lost as to how "2017" this feels. Meh.
Well it does and it doesn't. It does because the polls are once again quite widely spread (although trend seems to be a dropping Tory lead) but it also doesn't because the Tory percentage has gone up
Witness the nationwide compulsory face scans for buying a new smartphone announced last week.
China looked like it was cautiously liberalising and becoming freer, at least by historic standards if not free as we would mean it. That seems to be going into reverse, and the government there now seems to want to embrace every possible means of mass surveillance and control.
So the trend seems to be Labour has gained about two points, is that fair?
They've squeezed the LDs for sure but the Tory vote seems to be holding quite firm. I'm not sure the LD vote will go much lower despite their truly awful strategy - and remember a fair number of their new voters are ex-tory remainers many of whom would never vote Labour under Corbyn. Time will tell but a lot of postals ahve already gone in and well under 2 weeks left now.
Yes, that looks like it'll be the only Lab 34% we get tonight. We had three earlier in the week.
I wonder if Labour might be stalling? I'm not yet convinced. I'll need more convincing to start to believe that this might not be a repeat of 2017, and there's still time for events to intervene. But the MRP assumes 43:32 and its results compared with more recently conducted constituency surveys look persuasive.
If Labour do flatline then the Tories should be far enough ahead to win, unless all of the polls are wrong.
The rather better polls overall tonight for the Tories along with evidence of weakness for them in the south suggests, if it pans out that there could be a big re-alignment going on in British politics. If so the Brexit effect could prove to be quite profound in its impact.
The Tory heartland shifting further to the North and West, possibly? Dominating in East Anglia, the Midlands and the South-West as their majorities erode in the South-East? It's possible.
If we look at the EU referendum results map, there are strong concentrations of Remain-majority counting areas in most of London, West Sussex, Surrey, eastern Hampshire, and roughly along the London-Oxford-Bristol corridor. Perhaps leafy West London and the most wealthy shire counties is where we should be looking for a major revival of the Liberal Democrats, if and when this occurs? The route to a significant Parliamentary revival in their traditional South-Western powerbase might be closed to them.
There's precious little joy for Remain in most of the rest of England. Labour support outside of London may well contract around some of these remaining urban nuclei, along with the areas containing the highest concentrations of students, black and Muslim voters, and the very deprived.
Conservative heartland shifting into areas of affordable housing,
So the trend seems to be Labour has gained about two points, is that fair?
They've squeezed the LDs for sure but the Tory vote seems to be holding quite firm. I'm not sure the LD vote will go much lower despite their truly awful strategy - and remember a fair number of their new voters are ex-tory remainers many of whom would never vote Labour under Corbyn. Time will tell but a lot of postals have already gone in and well under 2 weeks left now.
Reckon that the proportion of votes cast by post could hit 25% in this election, and that most of those have probably already been returned.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
LOL! And I *still* think this weekend is Peak Labour... This is as good as it gets for Lab IMO.
Why say such things Gin?
Open to uber-hubris if the mood changes in a week.
Which it very easily could.
I'm just consistent with what I've said all the way along. All the Tory bedwetting on here hasn't caused me to change my mind that Conservatives will win a majority of 30-40 seats on a 10% lead
That's been my view from day one and still is.
Sash. You're out of our exclusive elite bedwetting club then.
So the trend seems to be Labour has gained about two points, is that fair?
They've squeezed the LDs for sure but the Tory vote seems to be holding quite firm. I'm not sure the LD vote will go much lower despite their truly awful strategy - and remember a fair number of their new voters are ex-tory remainers many of whom would never vote Labour under Corbyn. Time will tell but a lot of postals have already gone in and well under 2 weeks left now.
Reckon that the proportion of votes cast by post could hit 25% in this election, and that most of those have probably already been returned.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
Similarly, the Tories could be miles ahead. If it's wrong, we just don't know.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
I think so because what will happen now is further shoring up of the Labour vote as left-wing voters move to them tactically to frustrate a Tory majority.
Even political trend has an equal and opposite challenging one.
[EDITED TO INCLUDE YOUGOV] I think the Conservatives need about 308 or so seats in England alone to get a majority, assuming another 16 or so from Wales and Scotland.
Putting tonight's polls into my model for England I get:
Current Seats: Con (inc Bercow) 297 Lab 227 LD 8 Green 1
ComRes 43/33/13/4/3: Con 341 Lab 184 LD 7 Green 1 BMG 39/33/13/4/5: Con 309 Lab 211 LD 12 Green 1 Opinium 46/31/13/2/3(?): Con 384 Lab 141 LD 7 Green 1 YouGov 43/34/13/2/3: Con 343 Lab 181 LD 8 Green 1
Although the Conservatives just about scrape home with BMG, note that my model using the YouGov MRP figures gives the Conservatives 12 more seats than does the YouGov MRP. So assuming the MRP model is right, if my model shows much less than 320 Con seats the result is pointing to a hung parliament.
Note it matters matters very much whether the Brexit Party are on 4% (BMG, ComRes) or 2% (Opinium, YouGov). All of this comes from just 273 out of 632 GB seats. If BXP are polling well in those those Labour Leave marginals that the Tories are eyeing up, which is what Cummings is still concerned about, then the Tories will need a larger overall national lead in the polls to get a majority. If I substituted the BXP share of 2% into the BMG vote share (in place of 4%) with all other shares unchanged, the model would show the Conservatives on 320 seats not 309.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
Similarly, the Tories could be miles ahead. If it's wrong, we just don't know.
Exactly this. My feeling is that it's reasonably close - and the MRP poll seems to show in the key marginals this is the case. What I want to see is turnout assumptions, that's the only thing I can think of, as to how the polls can differ so much. I recall in 2017 Survation's turnout model was what gave them the magic HP (within MOE).
So the trend seems to be Labour has gained about two points, is that fair?
They've squeezed the LDs for sure but the Tory vote seems to be holding quite firm. I'm not sure the LD vote will go much lower despite their truly awful strategy - and remember a fair number of their new voters are ex-tory remainers many of whom would never vote Labour under Corbyn. Time will tell but a lot of postals ahve already gone in and well under 2 weeks left now.
I agree with felix. Do you think the BREX is beginning to look a bit low though?
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
I think so because what will happen now is further shoring up of the Labour vote as left-wing voters move to them tactically to frustrate a Tory majority.
Even political trend has an equal and opposite challenging one.
No, I don't think so. Anyone who is ready to vote for Jez would have said so this week with the onslaught of bribes from last week. We're at (or just past) peak Labour.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
Similarly, the Tories could be miles ahead. If it's wrong, we just don't know.
Exactly this. My feeling is that it's reasonably close - and the MRP poll seems to show in the key marginals this is the case. What I want to see is turnout assumptions, that's the only thing I can think of, as to how the polls can differ so much. I recall in 2017 Survation's turnout model was what gave them the magic HP (within MOE).
Read the article linked above. Some polls weight by recall of previous vote. Some weight by record of how people said they voted at the time. Some don’t weight for past vote at all.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
Similarly, the Tories could be miles ahead. If it's wrong, we just don't know.
Exactly this. My feeling is that it's reasonably close - and the MRP poll seems to show in the key marginals this is the case. What I want to see is turnout assumptions, that's the only thing I can think of, as to how the polls can differ so much. I recall in 2017 Survation's turnout model was what gave them the magic HP (within MOE).
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
I think so because what will happen now is further shoring up of the Labour vote as left-wing voters move to them tactically to frustrate a Tory majority.
Even political trend has an equal and opposite challenging one.
The trend was Remainers increasingly going to Labour - and they had another 10% or so to squeeze to equal 2017. So they can definitely pickup some votes there. And the undecided Labour voters, where will they go?
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
Similarly, the Tories could be miles ahead. If it's wrong, we just don't know.
Exactly this. My feeling is that it's reasonably close - and the MRP poll seems to show in the key marginals this is the case. What I want to see is turnout assumptions, that's the only thing I can think of, as to how the polls can differ so much. I recall in 2017 Survation's turnout model was what gave them the magic HP (within MOE).
Huh? The MRP poll showed a 68 seat Tory majority.
I know it did. But they also said if the lead drops to 7 or below it will be a HP - and that's because the vote in the marginals is so close.
I know I keep saying this but Labour on there is kind of freaky. It mirrors 2017 almost perfectly, even down to the small bumps as each week goes by. They're just lower down. Creepy
Not really. It started close to the line, then diverged, then got back to it, then diverged again.
LOL! And I *still* think this weekend is Peak Labour... This is as good as it gets for Lab IMO.
I think midweek was peak Labour.
Notice how Delta has Jezza's personal raiting start to drop, Boris's going up. I suspect that will continue from now to polling day. It could be that mid-week this week was peak Labour!
Or not.
YG seems to be narrowing will be interesting if there is a new MRP midweek.
I go for Tory Maj 40 in next MRP and 10 to 20 in real thing.
The Tory heartland shifting further to the North and West, possibly? Dominating in East Anglia, the Midlands and the South-West as their majorities erode in the South-East? It's possible. If we look at the EU referendum results map, there are strong concentrations of Remain-majority counting areas in most of London, West Sussex, Surrey, eastern Hampshire, and roughly along the London-Oxford-Bristol corridor. Perhaps leafy West London and the most wealthy shire counties is where we should be looking for a major revival of the Liberal Democrats, if and when this occurs? The route to a significant Parliamentary revival in their traditional South-Western powerbase might be closed to them. There's precious little joy for Remain in most of the rest of England. Labour support outside of London may well contract around some of these remaining urban nuclei, along with the areas containing the highest concentrations of students, black and Muslim voters, and the very deprived.
The new Conservative coalition has two overlapping elements - one is those desperate to see Brexit brought to a conclusion (many of whom believe, I suspect, we will leave if we pass the WA on or before 31/1/20 and may be unaware this is just the start of a process, not the end) and the other is those terrified of Jeremy Corbyn and all his works. Johnson's problem longer term is a) Brexit will be delivered at some point for good or ill and b) Corbyn will go and his successor will, I suspect, start to drag Labour back to the centre. There's also the small matter of all the spending promises and other commitments made by Johnson and his Party which will need to be delivered and I suspect the next GE will be much more interesting.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
I think so because what will happen now is further shoring up of the Labour vote as left-wing voters move to them tactically to frustrate a Tory majority.
Even political trend has an equal and opposite challenging one.
No, I don't think so. Anyone who is ready to vote for Jez would have said so this week with the onslaught of bribes from last week. We're at (or just past) peak Labour.
So the trend seems to be Labour has gained about two points, is that fair?
They've squeezed the LDs for sure but the Tory vote seems to be holding quite firm. I'm not sure the LD vote will go much lower despite their truly awful strategy - and remember a fair number of their new voters are ex-tory remainers many of whom would never vote Labour under Corbyn. Time will tell but a lot of postals ahve already gone in and well under 2 weeks left now.
I agree with felix. Do you think the BREX is beginning to look a bit low though?
Unsure but I do not expect a big majority either way 10-20 at best.
Swing of 1% from the Tories to Labour since the Yougov MRP totals of Tories 43% Labour 32%.
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
Average lead tonight about 10 or so? Labour are running out of time, I'd guess 2 million votes will have been cast by early this week with 4 million more to go in whilst labour try to close down that gap......... It looks at worst a 2017 result with a last 10 days collapse, if not some sort of majority up to and including a landslide
If you want to be a tinfoil hat person and say all the polls are wrong (I personally don't think that, I reckon the Tories are around 8 points ahead), you could say that we're in HP territory already, bearing in mind many polls predicted a 10 point lead on the night before 2017.
I think so because what will happen now is further shoring up of the Labour vote as left-wing voters move to them tactically to frustrate a Tory majority.
Even political trend has an equal and opposite challenging one.
No, I don't think so. Anyone who is ready to vote for Jez would have said so this week with the onslaught of bribes from last week. We're at (or just past) peak Labour.
Look at the trend and the YouGov.
The majority is squeezing in.
It's really not. The Labour onslaught is over and they are about 10 points behind in the polls.
Comments
https://capx.co/why-are-the-polls-telling-such-different-stories/
As was mentioned on here briefly earlier, one of the most interesting policy programmes anywhere in recent years, has been the decriminalisation of drugs in Portugal.
Survation missing it was 7 though wasnt it?
Tory majority of 30-50 highly likely now. That's my betting position. Corbyn an obvious drag unlike 2017. Labour needs to start thinking post GE - is there any hope of a revivial?
Can’t fatten a pig on market day.
Call it eggs gap analysis
Any questions?
Open to uber-hubris if the mood changes in a week.
Which it very easily could.
Also had my first Tory party literature, I live in Anna Soubry's ward so used to seeing her name on it. Will be interesting to see what happens.
YG out
That's been my view from day one and still is.
Make it an educational, fiscal, healthcare issue . . . not a criminal one.
Witness the nationwide compulsory face scans for buying a new smartphone announced last week.
YG seems to be narrowing will be interesting if there is a new MRP midweek.
I go for Tory Maj 40 in next MRP and 10 to 20 in real thing.
Delta +13(0)
Opinium +15(-4)
BMG +6(-7)
ComRes +10(+3)
PanelBase +8(-5)
Kantar +10(-8)
ICM +7(-3)
YouGov 9(-2)
Current average margin:
+9.5
Still Waiting On:
IpsosMori (+16 prev)
Survation (+11 prev)
As per Reddit
If we look at the EU referendum results map, there are strong concentrations of Remain-majority counting areas in most of London, West Sussex, Surrey, eastern Hampshire, and roughly along the London-Oxford-Bristol corridor. Perhaps leafy West London and the most wealthy shire counties is where we should be looking for a major revival of the Liberal Democrats, if and when this occurs? The route to a significant Parliamentary revival in their traditional South-Western powerbase might be closed to them.
There's precious little joy for Remain in most of the rest of England. Labour support outside of London may well contract around some of these remaining urban nuclei, along with the areas containing the highest concentrations of students, black and Muslim voters, and the very deprived.
https://imgur.com/7vRbcdB
But will it have gone down enough by then, who knows?
To me, it seems as though Labour is slowly gaining - but perhaps not fast enough.
I am content that the lead is still around 10% with just 10 days to go
Polling day is not a campaign day
I don't know if we'd seen the magic HP poll from Survation at this point (relatively)
Creepy
Labour would hold 11 seats of the 44 they were forecast to lose to the Tories including Clwyd South, Weaver Vale, Workington, Stoke Central, Bedford, Scunthorpe, Leigh and Dagenham and Rainham.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
It does because the polls are once again quite widely spread (although trend seems to be a dropping Tory lead) but it also doesn't because the Tory percentage has gone up
I wonder if Labour might be stalling? I'm not yet convinced. I'll need more convincing to start to believe that this might not be a repeat of 2017, and there's still time for events to intervene. But the MRP assumes 43:32 and its results compared with more recently conducted constituency surveys look persuasive.
If Labour do flatline then the Tories should be far enough ahead to win, unless all of the polls are wrong.
One thing the Tories have tried to do over the last few years, to their credit, is build many more houses.
They haven't properly addressed student loans and debt yet, or seed capital transfer or the values thing.
Opinium: +15
DeltaPoll: +13
Kantar: +11
Survation: +11
ComRes: +10
YouGov: +9
Panelbase: +8
ICM: +7
BMG: +6
Polls from 23rd November or later only.
Talk to the (urine soaked) hand.
Even political trend has an equal and opposite challenging one.
I think the Conservatives need about 308 or so seats in England alone to get a majority, assuming another 16 or so from Wales and Scotland.
Putting tonight's polls into my model for England I get:
Current Seats: Con (inc Bercow) 297 Lab 227 LD 8 Green 1
ComRes 43/33/13/4/3: Con 341 Lab 184 LD 7 Green 1
BMG 39/33/13/4/5: Con 309 Lab 211 LD 12 Green 1
Opinium 46/31/13/2/3(?): Con 384 Lab 141 LD 7 Green 1
YouGov 43/34/13/2/3: Con 343 Lab 181 LD 8 Green 1
Although the Conservatives just about scrape home with BMG, note that my model using the YouGov MRP figures gives the Conservatives 12 more seats than does the YouGov MRP. So assuming the MRP model is right, if my model shows much less than 320 Con seats the result is pointing to a hung parliament.
Note it matters matters very much whether the Brexit Party are on 4% (BMG, ComRes) or 2% (Opinium, YouGov). All of this comes from just 273 out of 632 GB seats. If BXP are polling well in those those Labour Leave marginals that the Tories are eyeing up, which is what Cummings is still concerned about, then the Tories will need a larger overall national lead in the polls to get a majority. If I substituted the BXP share of 2% into the BMG vote share (in place of 4%) with all other shares unchanged, the model would show the Conservatives on 320 seats not 309.
What I want to see is turnout assumptions, that's the only thing I can think of, as to how the polls can differ so much. I recall in 2017 Survation's turnout model was what gave them the magic HP (within MOE).
I hope these newest ones are right, but I won't relax until after the exit poll . . . if then.
HYUFD never disappoints, does he?
If it happens again next weekend and continues to polling day it's down to nothing.
Treason.
Johnson's problem longer term is a) Brexit will be delivered at some point for good or ill and b) Corbyn will go and his successor will, I suspect, start to drag Labour back to the centre.
There's also the small matter of all the spending promises and other commitments made by Johnson and his Party which will need to be delivered and I suspect the next GE will be much more interesting.
The majority is squeezing in.
Right, off for the night. Duty calls.
So if this is repeated next week, we head for a HP it seems
It looks at worst a 2017 result with a last 10 days collapse, if not some sort of majority up to and including a landslide