I think you (and the noble Lord) have it right here. There will def be cut through. NHS has problems and Cons' commitment to spend on it will be viewed in the same light as their "do or die" pledges on Brexit. ie don't believe a fucking word of it. Although he is positioning this as a first Johnson administration, it would of course be a fourth Conservative one and I think people will become more and more nervous in particular about the NHS as a result.
The really dumb thing is that the Tories have been given some very good opportunities to attack Labour on the NHS, which they are not using. They should be laying into Labour on the implications for the NHS of their 4-day week stuff, signing back into the Working Hours directive, and most of all on Labour's plan to stop referring patients to locally-popular privately-run hospitals and clinics.
But there is a difference between worker rights policies affecting the NHS and selling it off. Coz Labour can always just say "we will have a 24/7 NHS on a 4 day working week by hiring more nurses and doctors, paying them better wages and spending more money" whereas accusations of privitisation, something Tories ideologically are in favour of, are more difficult to wave away with something else. Labour's answer would be nonsense, but it would be nonsense in line with what people expect from them. The Tories just saying "no we won't privatise stuff" runs opposite to what people know of Tories.
Sure, but the point is they can throw stuff back at Labour, and thereby muddy the waters and blunt the effect of Labour's nonsense. They're not even trying - this is as bad a national campaign as Theresa May's in that respect (unless there's some highly targetted stuff going on under the radar).
I already took it a few months ago at 1.94, might stick some more on now
Yeah I'm on NOM. I just don't see people having a transformational moment one way or another. Betting markets however are pretty solid although Cons Maj just come in a tadge now 2/5 Cons Maj.
I guess boris could survive a night like 2017 in share if scon held up better than slab and just a couple of northern gains. But itsd be tight.
Anyone care to start running a book on the amount of times kle4 and CHB reference '2017'?
So long as you don't make it a drinking game. Or also run a book on amount of times people have said it is not 2017, not even in reply to someone saying it is.
But there is a difference between worker rights policies affecting the NHS and selling it off. Coz Labour can always just say "we will have a 24/7 NHS on a 4 day working week by hiring more nurses and doctors, paying them better wages and spending more money" whereas accusations of privitisation, something Tories ideologically are in favour of, are more difficult to wave away with something else. Labour's answer would be nonsense, but it would be nonsense in line with what people expect from them. The Tories just saying "no we won't privatise stuff" runs opposite to what people know of Tories.
Also true. The NHS is a lost cause to the Cons (cf Lab on defence, even if they had a leadership minded to give a fuck about Britain's defence).
A couple of points worth noting about the Panelbase poll:
* The figures are based on the (undisclosed) subsample of respondents who said they were 8-10 out of 10 certain to vote. It would be interested to know what numbers of people leaning to each party had lower ratings, and indeed for the electorate overall. We can reasonably assume that marginal seats will have higher actual turnout.
* Nearly all the parties' policies are quite popular. Tax guarantee? Yes. Points-based immigration? Sure. Nationalised railways? Fine. Abolishing private school tax breaks? Yep. Building lots of houses? Definitely. Only "Continuing to roll out Universal Credit" gets a dubious look.
* Age and gender are decisive factors. Older men prefer Con to Lab by 2.5:1; young women prefer Lab to Con by 3:1.
This is all the momentum (pardon the pun) the Labour sides need.
Hung Parliament here we come - and an end to Brexit.
Another one who thinks that Brexit will just go away! how nieve can you get?
Well, if a hung parliament a confirmatory referendum becomes likely. If Remain wins then this will be an end to Brexit. I can`t see the country going down this path again. Give it ten or so years and the old buggers who voted leave with their rose-tinted specs will have died off.
A Populus poll for Finchley & Golders Green has Con 29%, Lib Dem 24%, Labour 14%, the rest being mostly don't knows/ won't vote presumably.
That's quite a difference from the YouGov MRP model, which has central forecasts of Con 45%, Lab 28%, LD 27% (albeit with large error bars on those figures). But then I guess the YouGov model doesn't take account of the LibDems throwing every bar-chart they've got at this seat.
Can I just point out that Labour as a radically left-wing party is still polling higher than Brown and Ed all achieved
Brown spent 13 years living in Downing Street. Ed was facing a first term Tory-led government just a couple of years after Labour ran out of money.
Labour did not run out of money.
No, the country did because of the decisions made by Gordon Brown over a 13 year period.
We never ran out of money - Gordon Brown nor Labour did not result in the UK running out of money. That's a complete lie.
Depends what you mean by running out of money. They were borrowing one pound for every three raised in taxes, which was profligacy on a gargantuan scale, however you cut it.
A Populus poll for Finchley & Golders Green has Con 29%, Lib Dem 24%, Labour 14%, the rest being mostly don't knows/ won't vote presumably.
That's quite a difference from the YouGov MRP model, which has central forecasts of Con 45%, Lab 28%, LD 27% (albeit with large error bars on those figures). But then I guess the YouGov model doesn't take account of the LibDems throwing every bar-chart they've got at this seat.
Perhaps the unsafe trousers adds to his charm? Then again, according to Marquee_Mark, women don`t like him so maybe that doesn`t work.
It definitely does add to his appeal with some people. I've heard plenty of it. Mainly from men of a certain 'type'. One tries to avoid these sorts but it's not always possible.
Just asked my wife: she says that Boris is a bit of a "cad and a bounder" which gives him a certain charm (she won`t vote Tory, but that`s cus she`s a LibDem). Then again she married me so what does she know?
Can I just point out that Labour as a radically left-wing party is still polling higher than Brown and Ed all achieved
Brown spent 13 years living in Downing Street. Ed was facing a first term Tory-led government just a couple of years after Labour ran out of money.
Indeed. A profligate government willing to spunk other people's money up the wall with wild abandon in order to buy votes. It's lucky we have a nice Conservative Party to prevent hat happening. Lucky us. Lucky, lucky us... (Walks to door, opens it, screams "Godsdammit" into the wind...)
This is all the momentum (pardon the pun) the Labour sides need.
Hung Parliament here we come - and an end to Brexit.
Another one who thinks that Brexit will just go away! how nieve can you get?
The best chance we have of ending Brexit is with a Labour minority Government introducing a referendum where we can vote to Remain in the EU.
That Government can then tackle the real causes of Brexit.
The real cause of Brexit was the historic mistake made in the 1960's to join what eventually became the EU. At whatever cost, this mistake has to be corrected, otherwise it's never going to go away.
This is all the momentum (pardon the pun) the Labour sides need.
Hung Parliament here we come - and an end to Brexit.
Another one who thinks that Brexit will just go away! how nieve can you get?
Well, if a hung parliament a confirmatory referendum becomes likely. If Remain wins then this will be an end to Brexit. I can`t see the country going down this path again. Give it ten or so years and the old buggers who voted leave with their rose-tinted specs will have died off.
It depends on the hanging numbers. 320 Tories and 7 DUP gets Brexit done, but not how anyone would like.
One of the things that stuck in my mind from the MRP was the knife edge red constituencies that would probably go blue without the BXP vote.
I wonder how tactical BXP voters will be in those constituencies now...
You’re making the same false assumption that people mistakenly made with UKIP in 2017. BXP have been driven down to the point where most of their remaining voters are people who simply won’t vote Tory.
A couple of points worth noting about the Panelbase poll:
* The figures are based on the (undisclosed) subsample of respondents who said they were 8-10 out of 10 certain to vote. It would be interested to know what numbers of people leaning to each party had lower ratings, and indeed for the electorate overall. We can reasonably assume that marginal seats will have higher actual turnout.
* Nearly all the parties' policies are quite popular. Tax guarantee? Yes. Points-based immigration? Sure. Nationalised railways? Fine. Abolishing private school tax breaks? Yep. Building lots of houses? Definitely. Only "Continuing to roll out Universal Credit" gets a dubious look.
* Age and gender are decisive factors. Older men prefer Con to Lab by 2.5:1; young women prefer Lab to Con by 3:1.
It’s a bit annoying that Panelbase don’t show the full data . In the majority of the polls I’ve seen Tory turnout was around 6 points higher than Labour . Indeed in the ICM without the differential turnout the Tories would be only one point ahead on 36 v 35.
The big interest this weekend is what pollsters like Opinium show. I really hope that’s not going to stick out again with it’s horrendous Tory lead .
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
Can I just point out that Labour as a radically left-wing party is still polling higher than Brown and Ed all achieved
Brown spent 13 years living in Downing Street. Ed was facing a first term Tory-led government just a couple of years after Labour ran out of money.
Labour did not run out of money.
No, the country did because of the decisions made by Gordon Brown over a 13 year period.
We never ran out of money - Gordon Brown nor Labour did not result in the UK running out of money. That's a complete lie.
If I can service my debts but cannot afford to pay for the other things that I need (eg shoes, clothes etc) then I have run out of money. That is the position that we were in and it was caused by Gordon Brown hubristically believing that he'd abolished the business cycle. He should have been preparing for the next crash between 2002 and 2007 when he was in charge of all the money that the country spends. instead he kept pumping money into the economy until a shock stopped the money from being available.
Anyone with even the smallest understanding of economics in 2002 who looked at the amount of debt that was building up in the economy (both personal, business and yes governmental) would have understood that one shock to the economy would spell disaster.
Gordon Brown was, for 10 years, in charge of all of the decisions in the economy which impacted all of these types of debt and he singularly failed to do anything about it. He, and it is mainly he and his cabal of Brownites, were responsible for the UK not being prepared for the financial crisis. Had he done more then there would have had to have been less of a correction since 2008.
Just because someone, or a country, hasn't gone bankrupt it doesn't mean that they have not run out of money.
A couple of points worth noting about the Panelbase poll:
* The figures are based on the (undisclosed) subsample of respondents who said they were 8-10 out of 10 certain to vote. It would be interested to know what numbers of people leaning to each party had lower ratings, and indeed for the electorate overall. We can reasonably assume that marginal seats will have higher actual turnout.
* Nearly all the parties' policies are quite popular. Tax guarantee? Yes. Points-based immigration? Sure. Nationalised railways? Fine. Abolishing private school tax breaks? Yep. Building lots of houses? Definitely. Only "Continuing to roll out Universal Credit" gets a dubious look.
* Age and gender are decisive factors. Older men prefer Con to Lab by 2.5:1; young women prefer Lab to Con by 3:1.
It’s a bit annoying that Panelbase don’t show the full data . In the majority of the polls I’ve seen Tory turnout was around 6 points higher than Labour . Indeed in the ICM without the differential turnout the Tories would be only one point ahead on 36 v 35.
The big interest this weekend is what pollsters like Opinium show. I really hope that’s not going to stick out again with it’s horrendous Tory lead .
MRP showed a bucket of data, it was simply data you didn;t like.
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
Well despite the recent Labour surge on here - which I love - the Con majority spread is solid at 51/54. I'm long at 15 for a lot and I am NOT closing any. I'm running it all the way to D day. #ironballs
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
That`s interesting. I`ve raised this a few times on PB.com. The view was that Tories, as incumbent, get first bite at the cherry to go forward on minority basis. True they could get no-confidenced quickly, but my money would be on the opposition parties keeping a wounded Tory Party in power like they did before the election was called.
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
Labour needs to be in the region of 275 seats for that to be even a remote possibility (assuming that the SNP are on about 40 seats.
no matter what the polls are saying about the labour share of the vote going up they need to be in front in the polls to have enough seats to form any kind of government. otherwise the Tories will have too many seats for it to happen
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
That's simply not true.
Yeah, I have to say I think if Tories get May numbers they will still try and govern. But they can't use the same talking points of zombie parliament and so on, so what they do, I have no idea. Unless the Tories just say "Fuck it" and call another GE until they get an answer they like.
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
That`s interesting. I`ve raised this a few times on PB.com. The view was that Tories, as incumbent, get first bite at the cherry to go forward on minority basis. True they could get no-confidenced quickly, but my money would be on the opposition parties keeping a wounded Tory Party in power like they did before the election was called.
Can I just point out that Labour as a radically left-wing party is still polling higher than Brown and Ed all achieved
Brown spent 13 years living in Downing Street. Ed was facing a first term Tory-led government just a couple of years after Labour ran out of money.
Labour did not run out of money.
No, the country did because of the decisions made by Gordon Brown over a 13 year period.
We never ran out of money - Gordon Brown nor Labour did not result in the UK running out of money. That's a complete lie.
If I can service my debts but cannot afford to pay for the other things that I need (eg shoes, clothes etc) then I have run out of money. That is the position that we were in and it was caused by Gordon Brown hubristically believing that he'd abolished the business cycle. He should have been preparing for the next crash between 2002 and 2007 when he was in charge of all the money that the country spends. instead he kept pumping money into the economy until a shock stopped the money from being available.
Anyone with even the smallest understanding of economics in 2002 who looked at the amount of debt that was building up in the economy (both personal, business and yes governmental) would have understood that one shock to the economy would spell disaster.
Gordon Brown was, for 10 years, in charge of all of the decisions in the economy which impacted all of these types of debt and he singularly failed to do anything about it. He, and it is mainly he and his cabal of Brownites, were responsible for the UK not being prepared for the financial crisis. Had he done more then there would have had to have been less of a correction since 2008.
Just because someone, or a country, hasn't gone bankrupt it doesn't mean that they have not run out of money.
Yeah, this. Obviously we can't ever "run out of money" in the strict sense, since we can just print more of it. However, in the practical sense, by 2010 it was impossible for the UK to continue spending at its current rate without major consequences. Specifically, in terms of how able it was to continue borrowing to service the huge NSPCR without impacting its credit rating and consequently being able to rollover existing debt obligations. We had, in all senses of the word except the one that matters least, "run out of money".
Out of all the mad predictions you've punted here, I think this is the most unlikely. Corbyn will not resign, no way. If he has even the most miniscule chance of enacting his Project Bankrupt on the country, he will cling on.
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
But unlikely to be led by Corbyn.
Why? The minority government will be immediate, whilst the process to put in place an new Labour leader will take four months (as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, after looking at the 2015 experience).
Looks like a possible terror incident at London bridge
I clicked a link expecting to see police cars or something, and it was instead of two police officers with rifles shooting at a guy lying on the ground!
Can I just point out that Labour as a radically left-wing party is still polling higher than Brown and Ed all achieved
Brown spent 13 years living in Downing Street. Ed was facing a first term Tory-led government just a couple of years after Labour ran out of money.
Labour did not run out of money.
No, the country did because of the decisions made by Gordon Brown over a 13 year period.
We never ran out of money - Gordon Brown nor Labour did not result in the UK running out of money. That's a complete lie.
If I can service my debts but cannot afford to pay for the other things that I need (eg shoes, clothes etc) then I have run out of money. That is the position that we were in and it was caused by Gordon Brown hubristically believing that he'd abolished the business cycle. He should have been preparing for the next crash between 2002 and 2007 when he was in charge of all the money that the country spends. instead he kept pumping money into the economy until a shock stopped the money from being available.
Anyone with even the smallest understanding of economics in 2002 who looked at the amount of debt that was building up in the economy (both personal, business and yes governmental) would have understood that one shock to the economy would spell disaster.
Gordon Brown was, for 10 years, in charge of all of the decisions in the economy which impacted all of these types of debt and he singularly failed to do anything about it. He, and it is mainly he and his cabal of Brownites, were responsible for the UK not being prepared for the financial crisis. Had he done more then there would have had to have been less of a correction since 2008.
Just because someone, or a country, hasn't gone bankrupt it doesn't mean that they have not run out of money.
Out of all the mad predictions you've punted here, I think this is the most unlikely. Corbyn will not resign, no way. If he has even the most miniscule chance of enacting his Project Bankrupt on the country, he will cling on.
Indeed, he may be asked to resign but he won't voluntarily resign. I expect him to only resign in the event of a Tory majority government which looks stable enough to last 5 years.
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
But unlikely to be led by Corbyn.
Why? The minority government will be immediate, whilst the process to put in place an new Labour leader will take four months (as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, after looking at the 2015 experience).
Also, if Labour have gained seats under Corbyn (again), there's no way he's standing down.
A pox on incredibly useful spreadsheet creators who get the Constituency Names wrong. Two different spreadsheets, one says - "Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine" the other "West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine" and many others
Sigh, data muging is the worst part of data analysis.
In hypothetical land, let's say there is another HP. What do we think the parties narratives are to claim legitimacy. Obvs Cons will go largest party and oppo will go with denied majority to sitting government, but on Brexit specifically, surely Johnson cannot again claim that Parliament is being undemocratic if they refuse to pass his deal? If the country, which has produces 2 HP in the last 3 elections, does the same, where do we go? And if a 2nd ref occurs without Labour being in government (say a Con minority government have it forced through with only oppo MPs votes), what happens then? Do we think Johnson's deal beats remain? Would Johnson accept Remain if it won? Or would he call on Corbyn to form a gov / resign to another Tory PM?
If it's a Hung Parliament it will almost certainly be a Labour minority.
That's simply not true.
Yeah, I have to say I think if Tories get May numbers they will still try and govern. But they can't use the same talking points of zombie parliament and so on, so what they do, I have no idea. Unless the Tories just say "Fuck it" and call another GE until they get an answer they like.
The next Parliament come what may won't be as much of a zombie Parliament as the last one as the dozens of MPs who'd quit their parties last term won't be back next term.
Can I just point out that Labour as a radically left-wing party is still polling higher than Brown and Ed all achieved
Brown spent 13 years living in Downing Street. Ed was facing a first term Tory-led government just a couple of years after Labour ran out of money.
Labour did not run out of money.
No, the country did because of the decisions made by Gordon Brown over a 13 year period.
We never ran out of money - Gordon Brown nor Labour did not result in the UK running out of money. That's a complete lie.
Tell that to Liam Byrne, then.
I don't give a toss what that letter says, the UK did not run out of money.
If it hadn't run out, why did it have to borrow loads off the gilt market?
Which G7 Country had the lowest debt to GDP ratio in 2010
Oh look it was the UK.
9 years of Austerity and where do we stand now.
Tories borrowed more in 9 years than all Lab Govts in the history of Lab Govts
OH BUT WE HAD TO GIVR MILLIONAIRES A TAX CUT didnt we
You forgot to add the legacy of Gordon Brown crashing the economy which resulted in austerity. Hopefully the next time Labour trashes the economy they get to clear up their own mess.
The Tories really shouldn’t lose this election . They have a lot of the fundamentals in their favour with the Leave vote .
Very few Tory Leavers will ever contemplate voting for Labour where as more Labour voters would switch the other way .
Tory Remainers so far have been quite loyal to the party . So it’s down to that group and Labour Leavers which will dictate the outcome of the election.
The BP standing down in those Tory seats has really harmed the Lib Dems . To not get a decent majority with so much in their favour the Tories really will have outdone May !
The Tories won't actually LOSE the election, they are certain to wim most seats and 75% certain to gain an overall majority. A very large majority can lead to bad government especially with such a poor official opposition. A Tory majority of about 30 would mean that they can deliver Brexit, see off Corbyn and remove Boris in mid term if he buggers things up. The Labour party can get an electable leader and return to the days of New Labour, the far left will moan about that but where can they go? Hopefully the odious SNP will start to decline back to relative obscurity as well.
Ha Ha Ha , clown of a Tory, no chance the SNP are declining sunshine. It is the lying toerags that will be declining.
Comments
I wonder how tactical BXP voters will be in those constituencies now...
That Government can then tackle the real causes of Brexit.
* The figures are based on the (undisclosed) subsample of respondents who said they were 8-10 out of 10 certain to vote. It would be interested to know what numbers of people leaning to each party had lower ratings, and indeed for the electorate overall. We can reasonably assume that marginal seats will have higher actual turnout.
* Nearly all the parties' policies are quite popular. Tax guarantee? Yes. Points-based immigration? Sure. Nationalised railways? Fine. Abolishing private school tax breaks? Yep. Building lots of houses? Definitely. Only "Continuing to roll out Universal Credit" gets a dubious look.
* Age and gender are decisive factors. Older men prefer Con to Lab by 2.5:1; young women prefer Lab to Con by 3:1.
Con 43
Lib Dem 36
Lab 20
& a 67% turnout if you think about it.
Would be a disaster for both Tories and Labour - but of course Labour don't really care as they know the SNP will prop them up
(Walks to door, opens it, screams "Godsdammit" into the wind...)
At whatever cost, this mistake has to be corrected, otherwise it's never going to go away.
The big interest this weekend is what pollsters like Opinium show. I really hope that’s not going to stick out again with it’s horrendous Tory lead .
Hope it's nothing bad
Anyone with even the smallest understanding of economics in 2002 who looked at the amount of debt that was building up in the economy (both personal, business and yes governmental) would have understood that one shock to the economy would spell disaster.
Gordon Brown was, for 10 years, in charge of all of the decisions in the economy which impacted all of these types of debt and he singularly failed to do anything about it. He, and it is mainly he and his cabal of Brownites, were responsible for the UK not being prepared for the financial crisis. Had he done more then there would have had to have been less of a correction since 2008.
Just because someone, or a country, hasn't gone bankrupt it doesn't mean that they have not run out of money.
I'm long at 15 for a lot and I am NOT closing any. I'm running it all the way to D day.
#ironballs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/50532493
no matter what the polls are saying about the labour share of the vote going up they need to be in front in the polls to have enough seats to form any kind of government. otherwise the Tories will have too many seats for it to happen
Obviously we can't ever "run out of money" in the strict sense, since we can just print more of it. However, in the practical sense, by 2010 it was impossible for the UK to continue spending at its current rate without major consequences. Specifically, in terms of how able it was to continue borrowing to service the huge NSPCR without impacting its credit rating and consequently being able to rollover existing debt obligations.
We had, in all senses of the word except the one that matters least, "run out of money".
Events, dear boy, events...
- a) Before an election is called
- b) Just after the election is called
- c) Two week before the election is called when the Tories look like they are heading for a massive majority
The answers areTwo different spreadsheets, one says - "Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine" the other "West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine" and many others
Sigh, data muging is the worst part of data analysis.
"brandishing a knife" according to reports
Great timing btw Labour
Reminds us how spending too much always ends
Oh look it was the UK.
9 years of Austerity and where do we stand now.
Tories borrowed more in 9 years than all Lab Govts in the history of Lab Govts
OH BUT WE HAD TO GIVR MILLIONAIRES A TAX CUT didnt we
You forgot to add the legacy of Gordon Brown crashing the economy which resulted in austerity. Hopefully the next time Labour trashes the economy they get to clear up their own mess.