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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 200/1 Tip for Next Prime Minister

The polls currently indicate a healthy Conservative Majority. If that occurs you can rule out instantly Jeremy Corbyn. If the Conservatives get a healthy majority then I believe this results in three likely scenarios. In no particular order:

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Mysticrose

Thanks Philip. Nice tip.

Just for an equal bit of fun, the overnight GFS model outputs show a considerable snow risk for Election Day.

Forecasting this far out is even more inaccurate than polling, but I thought it worth mentioning. It would make things 'interesting.'

Jonathan

Sunak is interesting, but by highlighting him as the successor he is now automatically excluded from the job. See John Moore.

rkrkrk

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

rcs1000

Nemtynakht said:

With regard to Chlorinated Chicken, I went to America in the summer, and guess what we ate loads of chicken and didn’t get ill - i think the problem is it sounds bad.

Argument from anecdote is never a great idea.
In the US, and according to the CDC there are about 1.4m salmonella infections per year, 19,000 people are hospitalised and 420 people die.
In the EU (which has a roughly similar population), there are fewer than 0.1m infections per year and perhaps a dozen people die.
I live in the US. I eat chicken. I have never been sick.
But I also support the right of the British parliament to make food safety rules.

MikeSmithson

You can still get 200/1 at Ladbrokes. I got 250/1 with the firm's odds boost

Jonathan

MikeSmithson said:

You can still get 200/1 at Ladbrokes. I got 250/1 with the firm's odds boost

With Boris set for 5-10 years, it’s a long term investment.

rcs1000

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

squareroot2

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

why?

Black_Rook

Jonathan said:

MikeSmithson said:

You can still get 200/1 at Ladbrokes. I got 250/1 with the firm's odds boost

With Boris set for 5-10 years, it’s a long term investment.

You may be right, but I'll believe it when I see it and not before.

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Why?

Mysticrose

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

Mysticrose

rcs1000 said:

Nemtynakht said:

With regard to Chlorinated Chicken, I went to America in the summer, and guess what we ate loads of chicken and didn’t get ill - i think the problem is it sounds bad.

Argument from anecdote is never a great idea.
In the US, and according to the CDC there are about 1.4m salmonella infections per year, 19,000 people are hospitalised and 420 people die.
In the EU (which has a roughly similar population), there are fewer than 0.1m infections per year and perhaps a dozen people die.
I live in the US. I eat chicken. I have never been sick.

I don't think anyone yet knows the long-term damage caused by chlorine dipped chicken, for example in cancer risk.

The other issue behind the scare is the way pathogen reduction treatment (chlorine dipping) covers up poor health standards. There's also a serious concern about appalling animal welfare standards in general.

I don't trust Americans on health & safety one iota. Any market-driven society is prone to dangerous public health exposure: the scandal at Boeing being but one example.

And this is the world the current Tories are buying right into.

Fortunately I'm increasingly confident they aren't going to win this election.

AlastairMeeks

My general strategy for markets like this is to lay the current favourites when short enough and back long shots. That’s fallible (see Boris Johnson himself) but it has served me well. As Philip says, the chances of familiar names are usually overestimated.

Rishi Sunak is a good tip at 200/1. I can add one more detail about him. For much of Theresa May’s tenure his price for next Prime Minister was appreciably shorter than his price for next Conservative leader and far shorter than anyone might expect for an anonymous backbencher. The unkind night think he was backing himself to attract attention to his prospects. If he was, it shows he has the ambition.

Foxy

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

Remember the selectorate is a rabid parliamentary party and activists, not the general public though!

Foxy

@camel FPT

Foxy said:

camel said:

Might you really briefly explain the pensions issue for me please, Foxy?

This applies to all pensioners, but is particularly acute for senior NHS staff, and I was hit in tax year 17-18. The problem can be quite technical, but is due to the intersection of the NHS pension schemes (there are 3: the 1995, 2008 and 2015 schemes with different accrual rates) and the withdrawal of the annual tax free pensions allowance.
As well as salary, and any private income, pension growth counts as income for calculating income for pensions allowance. Above £110 000 (inc pension growth) the pensions allowance is tapered until only £10 000 remains. As the 1995 scheme is final salary, pensions growth can be quite lumpy, and that is what stung me in 17-18.
The outcome is that when the pensions taper hits, the marginal tax rate is close to 100%, and can be greater than that. There is a particular problem with the tax bill being on pension growth so paying tax on money that cannot be accessed. Several colleagues have had to remortgage to pay. There are two more tax cycles to go through before anything can be done.
As a result, Consultants are refusing extra overtime (particularly a problem with extra operating lists and covering rota gaps in ITU and Emergency Dept) when this is not a part of contract.
Also there is a powerful incentive to retire early, and to drop non clinical sessions such as management roles, and no one applies for CEA awards any more.
I am well paid for what I do in a shortage speciality, but am not willing or able to pay 100% tax, so have stopped taking income from private sources for example, and leaving it to accumulate in my company, and stopped doing additional locums to cover gaps or waiting list initiatives 2 years ago.

rcs1000

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

Nemtynakht said:

With regard to Chlorinated Chicken, I went to America in the summer, and guess what we ate loads of chicken and didn’t get ill - i think the problem is it sounds bad.

Argument from anecdote is never a great idea.
In the US, and according to the CDC there are about 1.4m salmonella infections per year, 19,000 people are hospitalised and 420 people die.
In the EU (which has a roughly similar population), there are fewer than 0.1m infections per year and perhaps a dozen people die.
I live in the US. I eat chicken. I have never been sick.

I don't think anyone yet knows the long-term damage caused by chlorine dipped chicken, for example in cancer risk.

The other issue behind the scare is the way pathogen reduction treatment (chlorine dipping) covers up poor health standards. There's also a serious concern about appalling animal welfare standards in general.

I don't trust Americans on health & safety one iota. Any market-driven society is prone to dangerous public health exposure: the scandal at Boeing being but one example.

And this is the world the current Tories are buying right into.

Fortunately I'm increasingly confident they aren't going to win this election.

Personal view: chlorine dipping does not cause health problems. (Otherwise swimmers would be a most unhealthy lot.) But it does cover up poor standards of animal treatment and makes it hard to test chicken for pathogen. Said pathogens can be inside the chicken, but hidden by the surface wash.

logical_song

Britain Elects

Wallingford (Oxfordshire) result:

GRN: 40.9% (+30.0)
CON: 31.0% (+6.9)
IND: 19.8% (+19.8)
LAB: 8.3% (-4.2)

Green GAIN from Independent.
No other Ind (-39.4) and LDem (-13.1) as prev.

Sheringham North (North Norfolk) result:

LDEM: 48.4% (-15.0)
CON: 43.0% (+17.8)
LAB: 8.6% (-2.8)

Liberal Democrat HOLD.

Trowbridge Lambrok (Wiltshire) result:

LDEM: 57.8% (+25.6)
CON: 42.2% (-3.4)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
No Labour (-15.4) and Green (-6.8) as prev.

Foxy

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

Nemtynakht said:

With regard to Chlorinated Chicken, I went to America in the summer, and guess what we ate loads of chicken and didn’t get ill - i think the problem is it sounds bad.

Argument from anecdote is never a great idea.
In the US, and according to the CDC there are about 1.4m salmonella infections per year, 19,000 people are hospitalised and 420 people die.
In the EU (which has a roughly similar population), there are fewer than 0.1m infections per year and perhaps a dozen people die.
I live in the US. I eat chicken. I have never been sick.

I don't think anyone yet knows the long-term damage caused by chlorine dipped chicken, for example in cancer risk.
The other issue behind the scare is the way pathogen reduction treatment (chlorine dipping) covers up poor health standards. There's also a serious concern about appalling animal welfare standards in general.
I don't trust Americans on health & safety one iota. Any market-driven society is prone to dangerous public health exposure: the scandal at Boeing being but one example.
And this is the world the current Tories are buying right into.
Fortunately I'm increasingly confident they aren't going to win this election.

Yes, the reason that chlorinated chicken is bad news is not the chlorine itself. It is the poor animal husbandry and slaughterhouse practice that leads to using chlorine wash as a control mechanism. It isn't even very good at that as chlorine works only on surface contamination, and also causes the organisms to change into the encysted form, rather than die.

Mysticrose

Foxy said:

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

Remember the selectorate is a rabid parliamentary party and activists, not the general public though!

That's true, although it's for tory leader rather than PM.

There aren't enough nasty people around to make her PM.

NorthCadboll

Morning all and on thread, yes he is a growing personality within the Tory party and increasingly seen on the TV. He has the advantage of the fact that barring bizarre future boundary changes e.g. taking in large unfavourable chunks of neighbouring Sedgefield, he should never have to worry about holding his seat.

Been playing with Baxter this morning and the suggestion he makes is that at 28 Tory and 38 SNP (i.e. basically the same as 2017) we see the 1st change in seats between the parties with either the Tories taking Perth or Lanark or the SNP taking Stirling. If the SCons come within 10 of the SNP and Labour and Liberal languish in the low teens then SCons start heading towards 15 and SNP below 40 (because they have taken all SLAB bar Iain Murray). If lead starts heading towards 15 then SCons head for 10 and SNP for 45. My hunch right now is SNP will gain and lose and end up around 40 and the SCons will be between 10 and 15, right now nearer 15.

Mysticrose

Robert you're probably right but I still worry about the long-term health risks (e.g. cancer) of a substance like chlorine. Swimmers try not to imbibe the stuff if they can help it.

So much of society's way of thinking is moving against that kind of thing: this seems so retrogressive.

The mood 'out there' isn't for Johnson's worldview. Our country is changing, powered by a youth vote and social media. This extreme right wing Conservative party feels increasingly out of step and out of touch.

If they don't lose this time they will be crushed at the next. But I don't think they're going to get their majority.

Alistair

squareroot2 said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

why?

She doesn't think mis-carriages of justice occur.

rcs1000

NorthCadboll said:

Morning all and on thread, yes he is a growing personality within the Tory party and increasingly seen on the TV. He has the advantage of the fact that barring bizarre future boundary changes e.g. taking in large unfavourable chunks of neighbouring Sedgefield, he should never have to worry about holding his seat.

Been playing with Baxter this morning and the suggestion he makes is that at 28 Tory and 38 SNP (i.e. basically the same as 2017) we see the 1st change in seats between the parties with either the Tories taking Perth or Lanark or the SNP taking Stirling. If the SCons come within 10 of the SNP and Labour and Liberal languish in the low teens then SCons start heading towards 15 and SNP below 40 (because they have taken all SLAB bar Iain Murray). If lead starts heading towards 15 then SCons head for 10 and SNP for 45. My hunch right now is SNP will gain and lose and end up around 40 and the SCons will be between 10 and 15, right now nearer 15.

You are more optimistic than I am.
I think Johnson is quite divisive, and the Conservatives strong views on Brexit make getting Unionist tactical voting difficult.
I don't see SCon losing seats, but I can't realistically see more than a gain or possibly two.

Foxy

Mysticrose said:

Robert you're probably right but I still worry about the long-term health risks (e.g. cancer) of a substance like chlorine. Swimmers try not to imbibe the stuff if they can help it.

So much of society's way of thinking is moving against that kind of thing: this seems so retrogressive.

The mood 'out there' isn't for Johnson's worldview. Our country is changing, powered by a youth vote and social media. This extreme right wing Conservative party feels increasingly out of step and out of touch.

If they don't lose this time they will be crushed at the next. But I don't think they're going to get their majority.

If one is gullible enough to accept Johnson's reassuances that neither reduced agricultural standards nor NHS pharmaceuticals are to be part of any trade deal, US or otherwise, then one wonders what else there is to talk about.

rcs1000

Alistair said:

squareroot2 said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

why?

She doesn't think mis-carriages of justice occur.

My best friend supports the death penalty. His view is that tragedies exist, but on balance it's better to have the ultimate penalty than not.
I disagree, but understand where he's coming from. He's taking the utilitarian line that - on balance - the lives saved by the death penalty will exceed those wrongly executed.
Ms Patel's view is alien to me.

AlastairMeeks

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

OnlyLivingBoy

Is Boris Johnson, procurer of abortions, stranger to the truth and over-promoted charlatan, still running away from proper scrutiny of his character and record as fast as his fat little legs will carry him? What a pathetic man he is.

Casino_Royale

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

Casino_Royale

I find this a bit sad. I’ve done a bit of very modest/tame climbing myself, and free-climbing (whilst it might be liberating in principle, and play well on social media) is very very dangerous:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50592646

Foxy

rcs1000 said:

NorthCadboll said:

Morning all and on thread, yes he is a growing personality within the Tory party and increasingly seen on the TV. He has the advantage of the fact that barring bizarre future boundary changes e.g. taking in large unfavourable chunks of neighbouring Sedgefield, he should never have to worry about holding his seat.

Been playing with Baxter this morning and the suggestion he makes is that at 28 Tory and 38 SNP (i.e. basically the same as 2017) we see the 1st change in seats between the parties with either the Tories taking Perth or Lanark or the SNP taking Stirling. If the SCons come within 10 of the SNP and Labour and Liberal languish in the low teens then SCons start heading towards 15 and SNP below 40 (because they have taken all SLAB bar Iain Murray). If lead starts heading towards 15 then SCons head for 10 and SNP for 45. My hunch right now is SNP will gain and lose and end up around 40 and the SCons will be between 10 and 15, right now nearer 15.

You are more optimistic than I am.
I think Johnson is quite divisive, and the Conservatives strong views on Brexit make getting Unionist tactical voting difficult.
I don't see SCon losing seats, but I can't realistically see more than a gain or possibly two.

While both the SNP and Welsh Labour are quite tarnished by the problems of power, their rivals look rather unappealing to the electorate.
SLAB look doomed and SLD are going to have to work hard to equal the efficacy of their 2017 vote. SCons do seem to have a limit by being pro Union and Pro Brexitof around 25% vote, but that should be well concentrated.
I think there will be less tactical voting North of the border, but at what point does a tactical voter become a convert? If an SLAB inclined voter has "tactically"voted SCon for 3 elections, are they really a SLAB voter anymore? Tactical voting is the entry point, but the aim is conversion to core support, and we will see that south of the border too, which is why second places matter in FPTP.

OnlyLivingBoy

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

Beautiful part of the world. The Watercress Line is very special.

Jonathan

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

Lots and lots of diamonds in Horsham constituency, more than in years. Blue boards in usual cow fields. Friesians for Boris.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

Stocky

On topic: backed Sunak for next PM at 250/1 a few weeks ago.
Would also like to back him in Next Tory Leader market but can`t find decent odds.

squareroot2

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

Lots and lots of diamonds in Horsham constituency, more than in years. Blue boards in usual cow fields. Friesians for Boris.

...and with different messages on them to the ones as you go past Kingsfold into Surrey.
No sign of "Lib Dem's winning here", because they won't be.

Tabman

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

I live in Oxwab. If posters were votes, Layla would be on for a landslide. I've seen two Labour posters and no Tory ones at all.

Similar in Wantage, though far fewer.

rkrkrk

@mystic rose: 3/5 of the last prime ministers became PM following an internal party selection.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

I expect Boris to shamelessly clear out a lot of the ultra ERGers from his cabinet, if he wins.

He’ll no longer need them.

AlastairMeeks

Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects.

I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.

Foxy

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

squareroot2 said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

why?

She doesn't think mis-carriages of justice occur.

My best friend supports the death penalty. His view is that tragedies exist, but on balance it's better to have the ultimate penalty than not.
I disagree, but understand where he's coming from. He's taking the utilitarian line that - on balance - the lives saved by the death penalty will exceed those wrongly executed.
Ms Patel's view is alien to me.

The high murder rate in execution mad US states would suggest that capital punishment is not much of a deterrent. It is almost as if criminals don't think of the consequences of their actions!

Casino_Royale

On topic, great tip, Philip.

Rishi looks a touch David Schneider in that photo. But rather different politics!

Andy_JS

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

These are the forecast changes in East Hampshire according to the YouGov MRP:
Con -8.6%
Lab -5.0%
LD +11.8%
Grn +0.8%
It's one of just 41 seats projected to swing from Con to Lab (although Labour are in third place), and it's number 6 on that list.
New spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yw6ebmYBDx1fVI1DAbfSXXUyK7BLNMUGBwoTbqzSOhg/edit#gid=0

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

OnlyLivingBoy

People who expect Johnson to tack to the centre and pursue a deal with the EU that keeps us in close alignment with European norms should read this piece on the growing influence of free market pressure groups, funded by US money. Brexit is the crisis they have needed to reorient the UK economy towards the brutal US model.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/29/rightwing-thinktank-conservative-boris-johnson-brexit-atlas-network

Foxy

AlastairMeeks said:

Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects.
I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.

Is that conversations in London, Sussex or both?
I forecast low turnout, but that may well vary by region and demographic. Are we going to have five years of gerontocracy?

AlastairMeeks

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

These are the forecast changes in East Hampshire according to the YouGov MRP:
Con -8.6%
Lab -5.0%
LD +11.8%
Grn +0.8%
It's one of just 41 seats projected to swing from Con to Lab (although Labour are in third place), and it's number 6 on that list.
New spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yw6ebmYBDx1fVI1DAbfSXXUyK7BLNMUGBwoTbqzSOhg/edit#gid=0

That looks like a very valuable resource: thank you.

Jonathan

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

There is a real problem that a majority give Boris a blank cheque, there is nothing currently stopping him taking us out via a hard Brexit, One way or another that has to be fixed by polling day.

Mysticrose

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

Totally agree Alastair.

This is why we are far from landslide territory and I am increasingly doubting the tories are going to make it across the line.

Johnson is really disliked by huge numbers of people across the spectrum. The fact that so are Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeon doesn't alter the fact.

rkrkrk

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

I expect Boris to shamelessly clear out a lot of the ultra ERGers from his cabinet, if he wins.

He’ll no longer need them.

I think that's very, very unlikely. He's not going to pick a fight with his one reliable block of MPs. He's not going to fire his home Secretary, foreign secretary and leader of the house on getting elected. Happy to do a charity bet though if you think otherwise?

AlastairMeeks

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects.
I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.

Is that conversations in London, Sussex or both?
I forecast low turnout, but that may well vary by region and demographic. Are we going to have five years of gerontocracy?

I’m fortunate that my job gives me contacts right round the country and as it happens I have a widely scattered family too. My impression is that Remainers and Londoners are more highly strung than any group but there is a depth of loathing of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn too. If my experience is typical, voting is going to be predominantly negative.

DecrepiterJohnL

Rishi Sunak is a rising star but I'd look at the next minister markets first since he is not yet in the Cabinet.

Mysticrose

Mysticrose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

Totally agree Alastair.

This is why we are far from landslide territory and I am increasingly doubting the tories are going to make it across the line.

Johnson is really disliked by huge numbers of people across the spectrum. The fact that so are Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeon doesn't alter the fact.

When it comes to the crunch I think there will be 4 key blocks of voters:

1. Brexiteers from the Right. Loyal to Boris.

2. Labour: will mostly come home to roost. Like 2017 their effect for the Cons will prove to have been vastly exaggerated.

3. Tactical voters. Going to be a BIG issue. I reckon 30 to 40 seats will swing by TV.

4. Youth vote. Under the pollsters' radar but it's going to be a massive factor. Breaking for Labour and LibDems.

Fysics_Teacher

rkrkrk said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

I expect Boris to shamelessly clear out a lot of the ultra ERGers from his cabinet, if he wins.

He’ll no longer need them.

I think that's very, very unlikely. He's not going to pick a fight with his one reliable block of MPs. He's not going to fire his home Secretary, foreign secretary and leader of the house on getting elected. Happy to do a charity bet though if you think otherwise?

Of the three I think the last is most likely given the way he has been hidden away during the campaign.

IshmaelZ

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

I assume posters are printed by the parties rather than home made, out of a budget limited in fact and by election spending rules. So isn't their prevalence determined largely by party policy rather than by level of engagedness? Or are they equally easy to come by at all elections?

Foxy

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

These are the forecast changes in East Hampshire according to the YouGov MRP:
Con -8.6%
Lab -5.0%
LD +11.8%
Grn +0.8%
It's one of just 41 seats projected to swing from Con to Lab (although Labour are in third place), and it's number 6 on that list.
New spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yw6ebmYBDx1fVI1DAbfSXXUyK7BLNMUGBwoTbqzSOhg/edit#gid=0

It does seem rather odd to describe a seat where both Lab and Con vote are dropping as a swing to Lab. Surely a swing from both to LD is a more accurate description?

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

I expect Boris to shamelessly clear out a lot of the ultra ERGers from his cabinet, if he wins.

He’ll no longer need them.

But he didn't need to make her Home Secretary. Yet he did.
While Penny Morduant, who performed well as a minister and has impeccable Brexit credentials, ended up on the back benches.
Loyalty trumps competence.

eek

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects.
I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.

Is that conversations in London, Sussex or both?
I forecast low turnout, but that may well vary by region and demographic. Are we going to have five years of gerontocracy?

I’m fortunate that my job gives me contacts right round the country and as it happens I have a widely scattered family too. My impression is that Remainers and Londoners are more highly strung than any group but there is a depth of loathing of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn too. If my experience is typical, voting is going to be predominantly negative.

It always in - in FPTP elections the choice is rarely your preferred candidate, normally it's pick the least worst that can win.

Trouble is in this election both sides are hideous so making that decision is incredibly hard.

rcs1000

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

squareroot2 said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

why?

She doesn't think mis-carriages of justice occur.

My best friend supports the death penalty. His view is that tragedies exist, but on balance it's better to have the ultimate penalty than not.
I disagree, but understand where he's coming from. He's taking the utilitarian line that - on balance - the lives saved by the death penalty will exceed those wrongly executed.
Ms Patel's view is alien to me.

The high murder rate in execution mad US states would suggest that capital punishment is not much of a deterrent. It is almost as if criminals don't think of the consequences of their actions!

You won't find me disagreeing.

HYUFD

He is a good long term tip but needs a bigger job to be in serious contention

HYUFD

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

I am going to a dinner with Priti Patel tonight, sold out, the members like her

AlastairMeeks

eek said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects.
I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.

Is that conversations in London, Sussex or both?
I forecast low turnout, but that may well vary by region and demographic. Are we going to have five years of gerontocracy?

I’m fortunate that my job gives me contacts right round the country and as it happens I have a widely scattered family too. My impression is that Remainers and Londoners are more highly strung than any group but there is a depth of loathing of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn too. If my experience is typical, voting is going to be predominantly negative.

It always in - in FPTP elections the choice is rarely your preferred candidate, normally it's pick the least worst that can win.

Trouble is in this election both sides are hideous so making that decision is incredibly hard.

Third anecdote of the morning (and this one shocked me) - I heard someone musing out loud yesterday that Labour anti-Semitism was really bad but was it the worst thing when deciding how to vote?

Casino_Royale

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

Beautiful part of the world. The Watercress Line is very special.

Yes, i volunteered on that as a boy and can’t wait to take my daughter on it.

Andy_JS

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

I am going to a dinner with Priti Patel tonight, sold out, the members like her

I think she could be the next PM.

Foxy

eek said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects.
I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.

Is that conversations in London, Sussex or both?
I forecast low turnout, but that may well vary by region and demographic. Are we going to have five years of gerontocracy?

I’m fortunate that my job gives me contacts right round the country and as it happens I have a widely scattered family too. My impression is that Remainers and Londoners are more highly strung than any group but there is a depth of loathing of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn too. If my experience is typical, voting is going to be predominantly negative.

It always in - in FPTP elections the choice is rarely your preferred candidate, normally it's pick the least worst that can win.
Trouble is in this election both sides are hideous so making that decision is incredibly hard.

The trouble started with the expenses scandal. Not only was that very corrosive of trust, but also the combination of serial culls of longstanding MPs in all parties and Social Media has resulted in some pretty pisspoor backbenchers to choose from.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Andy_JS

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

These are the forecast changes in East Hampshire according to the YouGov MRP:
Con -8.6%
Lab -5.0%
LD +11.8%
Grn +0.8%
It's one of just 41 seats projected to swing from Con to Lab (although Labour are in third place), and it's number 6 on that list.
New spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yw6ebmYBDx1fVI1DAbfSXXUyK7BLNMUGBwoTbqzSOhg/edit#gid=0

It does seem rather odd to describe a seat where both Lab and Con vote are dropping as a swing to Lab. Surely a swing from both to LD is a more accurate description?

Yes, you can do lots of swings for each constituency. Depends whether you're focusing on each constituency by itself or looking at a list of all of the constituencies.

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

Andy_JS

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

Describing Priti Patel as 1000 times worse than Jeremy Corbyn is a bit silly.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects.

I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.

I think it means people will calibrate their votes to deliver another hung parliament.

Nigelb

Jonathan said:

Sunak is interesting, but by highlighting him as the successor he is now automatically excluded from the job. See John Moore.

Add to that probable disillusionment with billionaires running countries. Though admittedly the bulk of the money is on his wife’s side.
He undoubtedly very bright, and quite fluent - which sets him apart from most of the cabinet - but as yet untested (and he flounders a bit under tough questioning).

Casino_Royale

rkrkrk said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

I expect Boris to shamelessly clear out a lot of the ultra ERGers from his cabinet, if he wins.

He’ll no longer need them.

I think that's very, very unlikely. He's not going to pick a fight with his one reliable block of MPs. He's not going to fire his home Secretary, foreign secretary and leader of the house on getting elected. Happy to do a charity bet though if you think otherwise?

No thanks, I bet to win money.

There will certainly be a reshuffle if he wins, but I have no idea as to how and to what parameters. I expect Robert Jendrick to be promoted with Rishi Sunak though and Patel to go.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.

One man you hate or the future of your country.

Not a difficult choice.

Mysticrose

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

He really is. There's visceral hatred for him. Which is why Labour will come home to roost.

It's a while since I've detected such a feeling. Probably not since Maggie.

The 'problem' is Corbyn - Labour would have this sewn up.

Mysticrose

Andy_JS said:

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

Describing Priti Patel as 1000 times worse than Jeremy Corbyn is a bit silly.

Probably. But I think Corbyn genuinely thinks he believes in justice and fights for rights of people he sees as disadvantaged. He has skewed that grotesquely at times but I think he meant well.

Whereas Patel is just an out-and-out shit.

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades

nunu2

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

These are the forecast changes in East Hampshire according to the YouGov MRP:
Con -8.6%
Lab -5.0%
LD +11.8%
Grn +0.8%
It's one of just 41 seats projected to swing from Con to Lab (although Labour are in third place), and it's number 6 on that list.
New spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yw6ebmYBDx1fVI1DAbfSXXUyK7BLNMUGBwoTbqzSOhg/edit#gid=0

So tories are losing votes in their safe seats, but not enough to lose the seat but gaing in the marginals.

😊

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.

One man you hate or the future of your country.

Not a difficult choice.

You seem to think that Boris Johnson with untrammelled power for five years is fundamentally endurable. And that’s where you are underestimating the perceived danger.

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades

No he won’t.

Nigelb

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.
One man you hate or the future of your country.
Not a difficult choice.

The future of the Union looks bleak under Johnson. I can’t see a justification for voting for either Corbyn or Johnson.

HYUFD

Mysticrose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

He really is. There's visceral hatred for him. Which is why Labour will come home to roost.

It's a while since I've detected such a feeling. Probably not since Maggie.

The 'problem' is Corbyn - Labour would have this sewn up.

Even without Corbyn they would not as Leavers would still vote Tory.

A more moderate Labour leader might win over a few more LDs and Tory Remainers but lose a few votes to the Greens too

OnlyLivingBoy

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

Beautiful part of the world. The Watercress Line is very special.

Yes, i volunteered on that as a boy and can’t wait to take my daughter on it.

You had my dream childhood! My grandparents lived in Farnham and we used to come and stay with them for our summer holiday most years. Going on the Watercress Line was always the highlight of the holiday for me (Frencham Ponds and Birdworld were good too).

Mysticrose

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades

No he won’t.

Indeed. He won't. Any of us canvassing know that this isn't big majority territory. The most the sensible tories on here can hope for is a decent win c. 40 odd.

But I increasingly think this is slipping away from the Conservatives.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Interesting tip. I put a little on at 251 (Ladbrokes, with boost).

HYUFD

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

I am going to a dinner with Priti Patel tonight, sold out, the members like her

I think she could be the next PM.

More likely Leader of the Opposition if and when the Tories finally leave office

Mysticrose

HYUFD said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

I am going to a dinner with Priti Patel tonight, sold out, the members like her

I think she could be the next PM.

More likely Leader of the Opposition if and when the Tories finally leave office

14 days' time

What will then happen is the vicious civil war in the tory party - the one they've been having for the past 40 years - erupting into the public eye again. The winners of that will eventually be the one nation tories who will once again become electable to the centre ground, which is where ALL elections in the UK are won.

The far right cabal will hive off into the BXP Redux and gradually die.

AlastairMeeks

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.
One man you hate or the future of your country.
Not a difficult choice.

The future of the Union looks bleak under Johnson. I can’t see a justification for voting for either Corbyn or Johnson.

"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" was always going to be a tricky sell for the Conservatives. It's remarkable how the penny still hasn't dropped that they might need to compromise with the electorate.

HYUFD

Mysticrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades

No he won’t.

Indeed. He won't. Any of us canvassing know that this isn't big majority territory. The most the sensible tories on here can hope for is a decent win c. 40 odd.

But I increasingly think this is slipping away from the Conservatives.

I don't, if anything the Tories vote is firming up even more from the canvassing I have done.

The Tories are sweeping the Leave voting North and Wales and Midlands and holding almost all their Southern and Scottish seats as Yougov MRP showed. I do not see much else changing that in the next fortnight to polling day

Pulpstar

Let me add to the anecdotes, my colleague who voted leave and was a non voter 2017 is likely voting Tory to keep Corbyn out - even though she really doesn't like Johnson

Foxy

Andy_JS said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on posters, I live in East Hampshire.

Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.

Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.

Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.

The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.

Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.

These are the forecast changes in East Hampshire according to the YouGov MRP:
Con -8.6%
Lab -5.0%
LD +11.8%
Grn +0.8%
It's one of just 41 seats projected to swing from Con to Lab (although Labour are in third place), and it's number 6 on that list.
New spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yw6ebmYBDx1fVI1DAbfSXXUyK7BLNMUGBwoTbqzSOhg/edit#gid=0

It does seem rather odd to describe a seat where both Lab and Con vote are dropping as a swing to Lab. Surely a swing from both to LD is a more accurate description?

Yes, you can do lots of swings for each constituency. Depends whether you're focusing on each constituency by itself or looking at a list of all of the constituencies.

Are you intending to add in a third column of change in LD votes? I am interested if you do. I was hoping for a quiet enough weekend to do my own model, which may be of interest to PB.

HYUFD

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.
One man you hate or the future of your country.
Not a difficult choice.

The future of the Union looks bleak under Johnson. I can’t see a justification for voting for either Corbyn or Johnson.

SNP still polling below 2015 pre Brexit vote levels, SCons still polling well under Boris and no surge for nationalists in Northern Ireland either

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.

Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.

Muppets.

I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.

Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.

No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.

But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.

Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.

So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades

No he won’t.

Yes he will

squareroot2

Pulpstar said:

Let me add to the anecdotes, my colleague who voted leave and was a non voter 2017 is likely voting Tory to keep Corbyn out - even though she really doesn't like Johnson

I was going to vote LD as I did in the Euros, but the need to ensure that Corbyn doesn't get in means my vote has gone back home. All the leaders are dreadful, but Corbyn is the worst by a long way.

Pulpstar

More broadly, my closest work colleagues are all going Tory; my uni and other friends all broadly Labour. Very little Lib Dem love

MarqueeMark

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, great tip, Philip.

Rishi looks a touch David Schneider in that photo. But rather different politics!

Hopefully lots of different things other than just politics!

AlastairMeeks

Pulpstar said:

Let me add to the anecdotes, my colleague who voted leave and was a non voter 2017 is likely voting Tory to keep Corbyn out - even though she really doesn't like Johnson

This is the competing force. What happens on election day will depend entirely on whether the public fears Boris Johnson getting untrammelled power more or Jeremy Corbyn getting the keys to Downing Street. How the pendulum is swinging at the precise moment of the election date may be critical.

Stocky

Pleased to hear this morning that Harvey Procter is to receive compensation from the police.
I`m hoping (hmm) that this is following by some disciplinary proceedings against the particular police officers. £900 k of tax payer money (plus the police`s legal fees) have been wasted on Procter alone (some others have already been compensated).
What a disgraceful episode. It is what follows from the police policy of automaticaly believing the victim.

HYUFD

Mysticrose said:

HYUFD said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

rcs1000 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.

Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.

Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.

1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.

I am going to a dinner with Priti Patel tonight, sold out, the members like her

I think she could be the next PM.

More likely Leader of the Opposition if and when the Tories finally leave office

14 days' time

What will then happen is the vicious civil war in the tory party - the one they've been having for the past 40 years - erupting into the public eye again. The winners of that will eventually be the one nation tories who will once again become electable to the centre ground, which is where ALL elections in the UK are won.

The far right cabal will hive off into the BXP Redux and gradually die.

14 days time

What will then happen is the vicious civil war in the Labour party - the one they've been having for the past 40 years since the days of Foot -erupting into the public eye again. The winners of that will either be the moderates and Blairites who might make the party electable again after the humiliation of crushing defeat by Boris and his common ground agenda or else the hard left will win again and the moderates will defect in ever greater numbers to the LDs

Mysticrose

Rather than a pantomine 'oh yes he will, oh no he won't' sesh, I'll just leave it to the pollsters. They are all now showing a narrowing of the tory lead. That's what I am experiencing out there. Why so? Because the Labour vote is coming home to roost. It's really very simple: Brexit matters far less to Labour supporters than it does to the Far Right. QED.

Have a good day, and if you're out canvassing in the dark, stay safe.

MarqueeMark

Hearing from an insider that the LibDem vote in the SE is very soft - and is now returning to the Tories in good numbers. All down to those evil twins: Jo Swinson and fear of a Corbyn win.
LibDems, take with a pinch of salt - given who is the source.

No_Offence_Alan

Pulpstar said:

More broadly, my closest work colleagues are all going Tory; my uni and other friends all broadly Labour. Very little Lib Dem love

None of my work colleagues are voting Tory, but it is Glasgow.

Mysticrose

One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games.

I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.