Rather than a pantomine 'oh yes he will, oh no he won't' sesh, I'll just leave it to the pollsters. They are all now showing a narrowing of the tory lead. That's what I am experiencing out there. Why so? Because the Labour vote is coming home to roost. It's really very simple: Brexit matters far less to Labour supporters than it does to the Far Right. QED.
Have a good day, and if you're out canvassing in the dark, stay safe.
Tory majority at all time low at 1.4/1.41 with Betfair. The bet I tipped yesterday: W Hill 5/6 Tory Seats under 350.5 is still available. I tend to agree with you, so there may be some value at the odds.
Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.
Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.
Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.
1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.
I am going to a dinner with Priti Patel tonight, sold out, the members like her
I think she could be the next PM.
More likely Leader of the Opposition if and when the Tories finally leave office
14 days' time
What will then happen is the vicious civil war in the tory party - the one they've been having for the past 40 years - erupting into the public eye again. The winners of that will eventually be the one nation tories who will once again become electable to the centre ground, which is where ALL elections in the UK are won.
The far right cabal will hive off into the BXP Redux and gradually die.
14 days time
What will then happen is the vicious civil war in the Labour party - the one they've been having for the past 40 years since the days of Foot -erupting into the public eye again. The winners of that will either be the moderates and Blairites who might make the party electable again after the humiliation of crushing defeat by Boris and his common ground agenda or else the hard left will win again and the moderates will defect in ever greater numbers to the LDs
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games.
I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
If this does result in a hung parliament, I wonder whether to avoid Corbyn as PM the Tories may pivot to a EU confirmatory referendum: Their WA v Remain?
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games.
I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
If this does result in a hung parliament, I wonder whether to avoid Corbyn as PM the Tories may pivot to a EU confirmatory referendum: Their WA v Remain?
It's a tiny window if the Lib Dems are only going to get 15 seats or so. Tories 310 seats or so
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades
No he won’t.
Indeed. He won't. Any of us canvassing know that this isn't big majority territory. The most the sensible tories on here can hope for is a decent win c. 40 odd.
But I increasingly think this is slipping away from the Conservatives.
I don't, if anything the Tories vote is firming up even more from the canvassing I have done.
The Tories are sweeping the Leave voting North and Wales and Midlands and holding almost all their Southern and Scottish seats as Yougov MRP showed. I do not see much else changing that in the next fortnight to polling day
The huge miscalculation made by Labour (and others on here) is that the Labour Leave vote is far more interested in other things than Brexit and will vote Labour on the day. Wrong. Not delivering on Brexit caused a fundamental breach of trust with the Leave-voting electorate. Labour's change of strategy on Brexit is testament to this. But they have no Plan B that will shift them back. Corbyn's studied ambivalance and wanky get-a-new-deal-and-then-vote-against-it has seen to that.
Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.
Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.
Not the slightest chance of Patel becoming PM. She may be adored by the Far Right but she's as loathed as she is loathsome for the majority.
1000 x worse than Jeremy Corbyn, which is saying something.
Describing Priti Patel as 1000 times worse than Jeremy Corbyn is a bit silly.
Probably. But I think Corbyn genuinely thinks he believes in justice and fights for rights of people he sees as disadvantaged. He has skewed that grotesquely at times but I think he meant well.
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games.
I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
If this does result in a hung parliament, I wonder whether to avoid Corbyn as PM the Tories may pivot to a EU confirmatory referendum: Their WA v Remain?
It's a tiny window if the Lib Dems are only going to get 15 seats or so. Tories 310 seats or so
Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects. I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.
Is that conversations in London, Sussex or both? I forecast low turnout, but that may well vary by region and demographic. Are we going to have five years of gerontocracy?
I’m fortunate that my job gives me contacts right round the country and as it happens I have a widely scattered family too. My impression is that Remainers and Londoners are more highly strung than any group but there is a depth of loathing of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn too. If my experience is typical, voting is going to be predominantly negative.
It always in - in FPTP elections the choice is rarely your preferred candidate, normally it's pick the least worst that can win.
Trouble is in this election both sides are hideous so making that decision is incredibly hard.
Third anecdote of the morning (and this one shocked me) - I heard someone musing out loud yesterday that Labour anti-Semitism was really bad but was it the worst thing when deciding how to vote?
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades
No he won’t.
Indeed. He won't. Any of us canvassing know that this isn't big majority territory. The most the sensible tories on here can hope for is a decent win c. 40 odd.
But I increasingly think this is slipping away from the Conservatives.
I don't, if anything the Tories vote is firming up even more from the canvassing I have done.
The Tories are sweeping the Leave voting North and Wales and Midlands and holding almost all their Southern and Scottish seats as Yougov MRP showed. I do not see much else changing that in the next fortnight to polling day
The huge miscalculation made by Labour (and others on here) is that the Labour Leave vote is far more interested in other things than Brexit and will vote Labour on the day. Wrong. Not delivering on Brexit caused a fundamental breach of trust with the Leave-voting electorate. Labour's change of strategy on Brexit is testament to this. But they have no Plan B that will shift them back. Corbyn's studied ambivalance and wanky get-a-new-deal-and-then-vote-against-it has seen to that.
Exactly, as Yougov MRP showed it is Labour Leave seats in the North and the Midlands and Wales which will give the Tories their majority
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games.
I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
If this does result in a hung parliament, I wonder whether to avoid Corbyn as PM the Tories may pivot to a EU confirmatory referendum: Their WA v Remain?
It's a tiny window if the Lib Dems are only going to get 15 seats or so. Tories 310 seats or so
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.
One man you hate or the future of your country.
Not a difficult choice.
You seem to think that Boris Johnson with untrammelled power for five years is fundamentally endurable. And that’s where you are underestimating the perceived danger.
Am I? I’m one of the few Tories on here who’s closed out of a majority and thinks a hung parliament very possible.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades
No he won’t.
Indeed. He won't. Any of us canvassing know that this isn't big majority territory. The most the sensible tories on here can hope for is a decent win c. 40 odd.
But I increasingly think this is slipping away from the Conservatives.
I don't, if anything the Tories vote is firming up even more from the canvassing I have done.
The Tories are sweeping the Leave voting North and Wales and Midlands and holding almost all their Southern and Scottish seats as Yougov MRP showed. I do not see much else changing that in the next fortnight to polling day
they have no Plan B that will shift them back. Corbyn's studied ambivalance and wanky get-a-new-deal-and-then-vote-against-it has seen to that.
You don't need many Labour Leave voters to shift for places like Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, Newcastle, Dudley North to fall. While Labour undecideds are moving back to the party, all the polls indicate that more people have switched from Labour to Conservative than have gone in the other direction. It's reasonable to infer that Lab to Con switchers are not located in constituencies like Islington South, or Cambridge.
At the same time, most Remain Conservatives seem to think that Jeremy Corbyn needs to be kept out at all costs.
Boris will fall short but for different reasons to Theresa May.
Nothing he’s done in this election has given me confidence he’s capable of any creative thinking other than to avoid her most obvious mistakes and to roll the dice again, on the basis Boris is Boris.
As Yougov MRP showed it is Labour Leave seats in the North and the Midlands and Wales which will give the Tories their majority
That said, there will be several million Tories who will effectively be saying to the Party "We aren't firing you today. We can't, because the only other candidate for your job is that monstrous fuck-wit Corbyn. But consider yourselves on a Final Written Warning...."
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games.
I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
My opinion for what it is worth is that little will change now and Boris should win a modest majority. The canvassing reports and other anecdotes indicate the conservative vote is hardening and the report from Buzzfeed this morning at the utter despair of labour activists in northern seats seeing Corbyn pouring all his resources into beating IDS and Boris and virtually abandoning them.
I expect history will show labour made a terrible mistake when they put Corbyn in office and he, more than anyone, enabled brexit by not standing firm in the remain camp so evident in the party. Had he rejected brexit from day 1 we would not be on the verge of leaving in little less than 9 weeks
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades
No he won’t.
Indeed. He won't. Any of us canvassing know that this isn't big majority territory. The most the sensible tories on here can hope for is a decent win c. 40 odd.
But I increasingly think this is slipping away from the Conservatives.
I don't, if anything the Tories vote is firming up even more from the canvassing I have done.
The Tories are sweeping the Leave voting North and Wales and Midlands and holding almost all their Southern and Scottish seats as Yougov MRP showed. I do not see much else changing that in the next fortnight to polling day
they have no Plan B that will shift them back. Corbyn's studied ambivalance and wanky get-a-new-deal-and-then-vote-against-it has seen to that.
You don't need many Labour Leave voters to shift for places like Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, Newcastle, Dudley North to fall. While Labour undecideds are moving back to the party, all the polls indicate that more people have switched from Labour to Conservative than have gone in the other direction. It's reasonable to infer that Lab to Con switchers are not located in constituencies like Islington South, or Cambridge.
At the same time, most Remain Conservatives seem to think that Jeremy Corbyn needs to be kept out at all costs.
There are some who will vote on the basis of leave / remain. But I think for many of us this election isn't about Brexit. It's about keeping Jeremy Corbyn and his ilk far, far away from power.
I'd back Boris over Corbyn even if he suddenly decided to adopt the Lib Dem revoke policy and added Schengen in too.
Hearing from an insider that the LibDem vote in the SE is very soft - and is now returning to the Tories in good numbers. All down to those evil twins: Jo Swinson and fear of a Corbyn win. LibDems, take with a pinch of salt - given who is the source.
It’s possible there are four of five general elections going on at the same time this year.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades
No he won’t.
Indeed. He won't. Any of us canvassing know that this isn't big majority territory. The most the sensible tories on here can hope for is a decent win c. 40 odd.
But I increasingly think this is slipping away from the Conservatives.
I don't, if anything the Tories vote is firming up even more from the canvassing I have done.
The Tories are sweeping the Leave voting North and Wales and Midlands and holding almost all their Southern and Scottish seats as Yougov MRP showed. I do not see much else changing that in the next fortnight to polling day
The huge miscalculation made by Labour (and others on here) is that the Labour Leave vote is far more interested in other things than Brexit and will vote Labour on the day. Wrong. Not delivering on Brexit caused a fundamental breach of trust with the Leave-voting electorate. Labour's change of strategy on Brexit is testament to this. But they have no Plan B that will shift them back. Corbyn's studied ambivalance and wanky get-a-new-deal-and-then-vote-against-it has seen to that.
Exactly, as Yougov MRP showed it is Labour Leave seats in the North and the Midlands and Wales which will give the Tories their majority
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games. I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
I am off too, but I think that you are right about Cummings. He is too full of himself for mind games. I don't think that he is as clever as he thinks he is though.
Johnson is a weak individual who is counter intuitively persuasive once he does pick a side. What that means is he will pursue the easiest course open to him regardless of what he may have said he would do or what ideologically it seems like he would do. Strength of a group influencing his party will be relevant, but more relevant will be whatever gets people overall to complain less.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.
One man you hate or the future of your country.
Not a difficult choice.
You seem to think that Boris Johnson with untrammelled power for five years is fundamentally endurable. And that’s where you are underestimating the perceived danger.
Am I? I’m one of the few Tories on here who’s closed out of a majority and thinks a hung parliament very possible.
My opinion is a modest majority is likely but a hung parliament is not impossible
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.
One man you hate or the future of your country.
Not a difficult choice.
You seem to think that Boris Johnson with untrammelled power for five years is fundamentally endurable. And that’s where you are underestimating the perceived danger.
Am I? I’m one of the few Tories on here who’s closed out of a majority and thinks a hung parliament very possible.
My thinking is that Conservatives finish in the range 330 - 345.
You don't need many Labour Leave voters to shift for places like Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, Newcastle, Dudley North to fall. While Labour undecideds are moving back to the party, all the polls indicate that more people have switched from Labour to Conservative than have gone in the other direction. It's reasonable to infer that Lab to Con switchers are not located in constituencies like Islington South, or Cambridge. At the same time, most Remain Conservatives seem to think that Jeremy Corbyn needs to be kept out at all costs.
That is the fundamental dynamic at work in this election. As with every election, I have found many permutations of changed votes on the doorstep. UKIP to Con. Brexit to Con. LibDem to Con. DNV to Con. Labour to Con. Referendum Party to Con (awoken from cryogenic suspension I reckon) Con to LibDem. Lab to LibDem. DNV to LibDem. Libdem to Labour. Con to DNV. I have not found a single Con to Labour. And given that Labour were 7,000 votes ahead of the LibDems here last time, you'd think at least one person might consider it the right tactical vote to unseat the Tories. Nope. Not a one.
Reading much into byelections is a mugs game, but for what it's worth Trowbridge went strongly Con in 2017 and in several votes this year seems to be tacking back to LD. It wont affect the parliamentary seat which is ultra safe, but it does give me further reason to wonder if the poll lead is real.
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games. I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
I am off too, but I think that you are right about Cummings. He is too full of himself for mind games. I don't think that he is as clever as he thinks he is though.
Agreed on that, but a lot of commentators seem to think he is a game player, all that 'hes wargamed this' stuff designed to explain any failure as part of the plan. And with the party supposedly engaging in tactics like provoking the bbc to complain to get attention, I get the impression the party is overthinking things, trying to be clever. Keep it simple stupid.
Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects.
I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.
It means that GOTV will be less effective than usual. The LDs use GOTV to get out their core vote in local elections. That does not help them so much in GEs. But highly motivated voters from all parties will flood to the polls, without interference from the parties. Really that is a good thing and is at the heart of representative democracy.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
So loathed according to Yougov MRP he will win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher, who was also loathed apparently and the second highest number of Scottish Tory seats in almost 3 decades
No he won’t.
Indeed. He won't. Any of us canvassing know that this isn't big majority territory. The most the sensible tories on here can hope for is a decent win c. 40 odd.
But I increasingly think this is slipping away from the Conservatives.
I don't, if anything the Tories vote is firming up even more from the canvassing I have done.
The Tories are sweeping the Leave voting North and Wales and Midlands and holding almost all their Southern and Scottish seats as Yougov MRP showed. I do not see much else changing that in the next fortnight to polling day
The huge miscalculation made by Labour (and others on here) is that the Labour Leave vote is far more interested in other things than Brexit and will vote Labour on the day. Wrong. Not delivering on Brexit caused a fundamental breach of trust with the Leave-voting electorate. Labour's change .
Exactly, as Yougov MRP showed it is Labour Leave seats in the North and the Midlands and Wales which will give the Tories their majority
They will, if they deliver this time around. The north and Wales love to return home to labour, but admittedly they are under pressure.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.
One man you hate or the future of your country.
Not a difficult choice.
You seem to think that Boris Johnson with untrammelled power for five years is fundamentally endurable. And that’s where you are underestimating the perceived danger.
Am I? I’m one of the few Tories on here who’s closed out of a majority and thinks a hung parliament very possible.
My thinking is that Conservatives finish in the range 330 - 345.
If that is your par result, the Conservatives might be worth selling on the spreads. Sporting Index is suspended but when it reopens I expect it to be close to Spreadex's 345-353.
Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects. I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.
Is that conversations in London, Sussex or both? I forecast low turnout, but that may well vary by region and demographic. Are we going to have five years of gerontocracy?
I’m fortunate that my job gives me contacts right round the country and as it happens I have a widely scattered family too. My impression is that Remainers and Londoners are more highly strung than any group but there is a depth of loathing of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn too. If my experience is typical, voting is going to be predominantly negative.
It always in - in FPTP elections the choice is rarely your preferred candidate, normally it's pick the least worst that can win.
Trouble is in this election both sides are hideous so making that decision is incredibly hard.
Third anecdote of the morning (and this one shocked me) - I heard someone musing out loud yesterday that Labour anti-Semitism was really bad but was it the worst thing when deciding how to vote?
That shocks me too. The Julius letter and Stephen Daisley article are the answers to that. But I really worry about people thinking like that. Neither Boris nor Corbyn are fit to be PM.
I worry about the snow reports for the middle of election week - I really do. As a farmer I have spent a lifetime interpreting weather forecasts and one of the safest predictors is that in the absence of an anticyclone we will have the tail end of what they are having in the US about a fortnight after they do.
Ouch! Should be pretty safe Labour anyway, but the Tories will clearly be ahead of the Lib Dems. I have it 50/33/13 for Lab/Con/LD which doesn't seem a mile away from the YG MRP.
Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects. I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.
Is that conversations in London, Sussex or both? I forecast low turnout, but that may well vary by region and demographic. Are we going to have five years of gerontocracy?
I’m fortunate that my job gives me contacts right round the country and as it happens I have a widely scattered family too. My impression is that Remainers and Londoners are more highly strung than any group but there is a depth of loathing of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn too. If my experience is typical, voting is going to be predominantly negative.
It always in - in FPTP elections the choice is rarely your preferred candidate, normally it's pick the least worst that can win.
Trouble is in this election both sides are hideous so making that decision is incredibly hard.
Third anecdote of the morning (and this one shocked me) - I heard someone musing out loud yesterday that Labour anti-Semitism was really bad but was it the worst thing when deciding how to vote?
That shocks me too. The Julius letter and Stephen Daisley article are the answers to that. But I really worry about people thinking like that. Neither Boris nor Corbyn are fit to be PM.
Itd almost be better if they just didn't believe there was a problem, or didn't voice it at least.
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games. I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
I am off too, but I think that you are right about Cummings. He is too full of himself for mind games. I don't think that he is as clever as he thinks he is though.
“ I don't think that he is as clever as he thinks he is though.”
Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.
Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.
why?
She doesn't think mis-carriages of justice occur.
My best friend supports the death penalty. His view is that tragedies exist, but on balance it's better to have the ultimate penalty than not. I disagree, but understand where he's coming from. He's taking the utilitarian line that - on balance - the lives saved by the death penalty will exceed those wrongly executed. Ms Patel's view is alien to me.
The high murder rate in execution mad US states would suggest that capital punishment is not much of a deterrent. It is almost as if criminals don't think of the consequences of their actions!
You won't find me disagreeing.
I would even suggest that capital punishment makes murder rates higher, for quite a few reasons. Firstly, if the state justifies the murder of its citizens, the citizens can justify it personally. Secondly, once someone has committed a crime that could give them death penalty, they are incentivised to kill to escape. Whereas if they think they'll get life, they aren't. It is safer for cops as well, if you have committed a death penalty offence killing the police officer trying to arrest you makes sense, they can't kill you twice.
Fewer even than in GE2017. The Labour Party councillor-in-chief in Alton has plastered his house with posters near the railway station, as you’d expect, with one or two homes of his mates further down the street - these usually pop up a few days after he pops them up.
Two yellow diamonds - one in town, and another on a farm cottage on the road outside of town.
Three big ‘Damien Hinds’ posters for the Tories, as you’d expect in the rural areas outside town, in fields, and one in my village attached to a giant union flag flagpole.
The other thing is that 2 or 3 more properties than usual have hoisted union flags in my village, there’s always a couple, which where I live is probably as good as putting up a Tory poster, wink-wink nudge-nudge.
Other than that many more are interested/worried about it but looking at it all on their phones and changing the subject whenever someone tries to talk to them about it.
I assume posters are printed by the parties rather than home made, out of a budget limited in fact and by election spending rules. So isn't their prevalence determined largely by party policy rather than by level of engagedness? Or are they equally easy to come by at all elections?
If your posters are defaced within 24 hours of being erected as ours always have been in Westmorland and Lonsdale since Tim Farron appeared then it is a policy decision not to put them up - at least not without cameras on them.
Johnson is a weak individual who is counter intuitively persuasive once he does pick a side. What that means is he will pursue the easiest course open to him regardless of what he may have said he would do or what ideologically it seems like he would do. Strength of a group influencing his party will be relevant, but more relevant will be whatever gets people overall to complain less.
He will do whatever the donor class and Dominic Cummings tell him to. Economic and geopolitical alignment with the US is the destination. A hard Brexit shock is how we get there. Five years is a very long time to get this done if they have a decent majority. I can't believe how naive people are being about this.
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games.
I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
My opinion for what it is worth is that little will change now and Boris should win a modest majority. The canvassing reports and other anecdotes indicate the conservative vote is hardening and the report from Buzzfeed this morning at the utter despair of labour activists in northern seats seeing Corbyn pouring all his resources into beating IDS and Boris and virtually abandoning them.
I expect history will show labour made a terrible mistake when they put Corbyn in office and he, more than anyone, enabled brexit by not standing firm in the remain camp so evident in the party. Had he rejected brexit from day 1 we would not be on the verge of leaving in little less than 9 weeks
I don`t think Corbyn supporters will ever regret putting "the absolute boy" into office. Their priority is ideological purity. Power is secondary.
Tony Benn always used to say that he much preferred being on the opposition benches.
Second anecdote alert. People are far more interested in the result this time round than last. I’m having far more unprompted conversations with family, friends clients and colleagues about the possible outcome. This goes way beyond the usual suspects.
I’m not sure what this means other than a lot of people think this election really matters. People are worried.
It means that GOTV will be less effective than usual. The LDs use GOTV to get out their core vote in local elections. That does not help them so much in GEs. But highly motivated voters from all parties will flood to the polls, without interference from the parties. Really that is a good thing and is at the heart of representative democracy.
Those who want Brexit done REALLY want it done. It is the way for their vote not to be robbed off them. Hell or high water, they will vote. Are those holding on to some vague dream of robbing Brexiteers of their vote quite so motivated? More importantly, are their numbers remotely comparable?
I worry about the snow reports for the middle of election week - I really do. As a farmer I have spent a lifetime interpreting weather forecasts and one of the safest predictors is that in the absence of an anticyclone we will have the tail end of what they are having in the US about a fortnight after they do.
Our democratic process will be in the hands of 4x4 and tractor drivers..... Pack them Tory voters in a trailer at the back, and off to the polling station with them....
One last comment. When Dom Cummings blogged that we're heading for a Hung Parliament, I don't think it was mind games. I think he genuinely thinks it and I think he's right.
I am off too, but I think that you are right about Cummings. He is too full of himself for mind games. I don't think that he is as clever as he thinks he is though.
“ I don't think that he is as clever as he thinks he is though.”
Pot calling kettle.
Few of us are as clever as we think we are, but most of us doubt have the PM dancing to our tune.
I worry about the snow reports for the middle of election week - I really do. As a farmer I have spent a lifetime interpreting weather forecasts and one of the safest predictors is that in the absence of an anticyclone we will have the tail end of what they are having in the US about a fortnight after they do.
Our democratic process will be in the hands of 4x4 and tractor drivers..... Pack them Tory voters in a trailer at the back, and off to the polling station with them....
This contingency has already been discussed - I will be out there !
Hearing from an insider that the LibDem vote in the SE is very soft - and is now returning to the Tories in good numbers. All down to those evil twins: Jo Swinson and fear of a Corbyn win. LibDems, take with a pinch of salt - given who is the source.
It’s possible there are four of five general elections going on at the same time this year.
Similarly I'm encountering a significant number of Lib-Lab waverers plumping for Labour. I think it's going to end up with a classic two-party election in most places, high turnout in the marginals, low everywhere else.
One issue is that the most motivated activists are harder to switch than they should be. I'm trying to funnel all our activists to Portsmouth and Reading, the LibDems here ought to be throwing the kitchen sink at Guildford, which is literally minutes away. But although we're both having some success, a lot of activists can't bear not to spend time polishing the home turf, which is undisciplined in what is thought to be a movement of well-informed dedicated zealots. They're just not Stalinist enough!
Hearing from an insider that the LibDem vote in the SE is very soft - and is now returning to the Tories in good numbers. All down to those evil twins: Jo Swinson and fear of a Corbyn win. LibDems, take with a pinch of salt - given who is the source.
It’s possible there are four of five general elections going on at the same time this year.
Similarly I'm encountering a significant number of Lib-Lab waverers plumping for Labour. I think it's going to end up with a classic two-party election in most places, high turnout in the marginals, low everywhere else.
One issue is that the most motivated activists are harder to switch than they should be. I'm trying to funnel all our activists to Portsmouth and Reading, the LibDems here ought to be throwing the kitchen sink at Guildford, which is literally minutes away. But although we're both having some success, a lot of activists can't bear not to spend time polishing the home turf, which is undisciplined in what is thought to be a movement of well-informed dedicated zealots. They're just not Stalinist enough!
Reading East and Portsmouth South are in the bag for Labour according to the YouGov MRP study. Maybe activists should be heading to the North and Midlands.
According to a Buzzfeed report, Labour are putting resources and activists into Tory seats like Altrincham & Sale West and Bolton West, instead of defending their own seats like Leigh.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well. But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Speaking as a voter in Scotland who has come round to being pro-Union I think the immediacy of the danger is a factor. Even if the SNP repeat 2015 they will still need to win a referendum to achieve independence. Whereas there is no such constraint on a Johnson government. It's hard then to view SNP MPs as the greatest risk. Holyrood elections maybe a bit different, since some of the SNP ultras are advocating a Holyrood majority as a mandate for Independence - but then the voting system makes tactical voting less important too.
According to a Buzzfeed report, Labour are putting resources and activists into Tory seats like Altrincham & Sale West and Bolton West, instead of defending their own seats like Leigh.
They seem strange on 2 levels: Bolton West was 55% + leave but it does have a University I guess. Altrincham was very remain so it makes more sense but there is a strong-ish Lib Dem to squeeze the remain vote.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1200315096435740672?s=20 Crosby finished his memo with a five-point plan: Be clear why this election is needed. Frame it as a choice between stability and uncertainty. Demonstrate to the country that the only way to secure that stability is with a solid and united party. Convince the public that this party is the Tories. And, finally, take every opportunity to contrast with Corbyn. On each point, Johnson is sticking to that script. He has set up his alibi for the election, framed it as Crosby suggested, repeated the line that every Conservative election candidate has signed up to his Brexit plan, warned of chaos with Labour, and repeatedly hammered Corbyn over his leadership on Brexit. Corbyn, then, is using the same tactics he employed last time, but amped up to 11, while Johnson is running a campaign that May could have run but chose not to. In a way, they are both fighting the 2019 election with 2017 scripts.
It's not the death penalty part. It's the belief the state can never fail only be failed.
I don't believe Patel ever said that and I don't believe its her opinion. Indeed I believe she has said the reason she doesn't support the death penalty now is due to the risk of miscarriages of justice.
He’s certainly a more fluent liar than Corbyn. And far better at it than Boris. The best of the 3 I’d say. And the most dangerous in consequence.
There's something about his tone of voice that really makes my skin crawl.
He has the faux matiness of the experienced confidence trickster. The people who would be taken in by McDonnell overlap with those who would send their bank account details to a Nigerian Prince they met on the internet....
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them. One man you hate or the future of your country. Not a difficult choice.
The future of the Union looks bleak under Johnson. I can’t see a justification for voting for either Corbyn or Johnson.
Sadly, I can't see a justification for voting at all.
He’s certainly a more fluent liar than Corbyn. And far better at it than Boris. The best of the 3 I’d say. And the most dangerous in consequence.
He is the single most dangerous man in British post war politics. We can guess that Boris would use his position to get tottie and freeload, Corbyn to get a better allotment pitch and remove vat from jam. In power it’s hard to imagine anything other than low level stuff. You put McDonell in though, give him control over the levers of the state, and you will over a period of time see him adopt the same instincts of his heroes Stalin, Mao and Castro. There will be no action, no imprisonment, no violation of liberty that cannot be justified for the cause of the greater/common good.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.
One man you hate or the future of your country.
Not a difficult choice.
You seem to think that Boris Johnson with untrammelled power for five years is fundamentally endurable. And that’s where you are underestimating the perceived danger.
Am I? I’m one of the few Tories on here who’s closed out of a majority and thinks a hung parliament very possible.
My thinking is that Conservatives finish in the range 330 - 345.
Which at the lower end is wafer-thin and potentially less than Cameron.
Hearing from an insider that the LibDem vote in the SE is very soft - and is now returning to the Tories in good numbers. All down to those evil twins: Jo Swinson and fear of a Corbyn win. LibDems, take with a pinch of salt - given who is the source.
It’s possible there are four of five general elections going on at the same time this year.
Similarly I'm encountering a significant number of Lib-Lab waverers plumping for Labour. I think it's going to end up with a classic two-party election in most places, high turnout in the marginals, low everywhere else.
One issue is that the most motivated activists are harder to switch than they should be. I'm trying to funnel all our activists to Portsmouth and Reading, the LibDems here ought to be throwing the kitchen sink at Guildford, which is literally minutes away. But although we're both having some success, a lot of activists can't bear not to spend time polishing the home turf, which is undisciplined in what is thought to be a movement of well-informed dedicated zealots. They're just not Stalinist enough!
Reading East and Portsmouth South are in the bag for Labour according to the YouGov MRP study. Maybe activists should be heading to the North and Midlands.
Yet both Reading East and Portsmouth South are still odds-against: Reading East 2/1 Bet Victor Portsmouth South 13/8 Betway, 6/4 generally (I got 13/5 yesterday)
Looks a decent tip. Patel available at 49/1. Now admittedly home office means there's a decent chance she screws up. But that's still very good odds.
Those odds are good for Patel. On the other hand, Priti Patel is one of the few politicians I fear more than Jeremy Corbyn.
why?
She doesn't think mis-carriages of justice occur.
My best friend supports the death penalty. His view is that tragedies exist, but on balance it's better to have the ultimate penalty than not. I disagree, but understand where he's coming from. He's taking the utilitarian line that - on balance - the lives saved by the death penalty will exceed those wrongly executed. Ms Patel's view is alien to me.
The high murder rate in execution mad US states would suggest that capital punishment is not much of a deterrent. It is almost as if criminals don't think of the consequences of their actions!
You won't find me disagreeing.
I would even suggest that capital punishment makes murder rates higher, for quite a few reasons. Firstly, if the state justifies the murder of its citizens, the citizens can justify it personally. Secondly, once someone has committed a crime that could give them death penalty, they are incentivised to kill to escape. Whereas if they think they'll get life, they aren't. It is safer for cops as well, if you have committed a death penalty offence killing the police officer trying to arrest you makes sense, they can't kill you twice.
You are assuming it is a rational act. I suspect that is rarely the case.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1200315096435740672?s=20 Crosby finished his memo with a five-point plan: Be clear why this election is needed. Frame it as a choice between stability and uncertainty. Demonstrate to the country that the only way to secure that stability is with a solid and united party. Convince the public that this party is the Tories. And, finally, take every opportunity to contrast with Corbyn. On each point, Johnson is sticking to that script. He has set up his alibi for the election, framed it as Crosby suggested, repeated the line that every Conservative election candidate has signed up to his Brexit plan, warned of chaos with Labour, and repeatedly hammered Corbyn over his leadership on Brexit. Corbyn, then, is using the same tactics he employed last time, but amped up to 11, while Johnson is running a campaign that May could have run but chose not to. In a way, they are both fighting the 2019 election with 2017 scripts.
Corbyn has stuck some noughts on his retail offer since 2017. In principle, giving the voter every toy in the toy shop should work. His problem is that since 2017, a sizeable chunk of his vote have seen he is an unprincipled liar heading a gang of unprincipled liars when it comes to Brexit. They just don't believe him. And 2017 Tory voters aren't believing his offer, whichever way they voted in the referendum.
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them.
One man you hate or the future of your country.
Not a difficult choice.
You seem to think that Boris Johnson with untrammelled power for five years is fundamentally endurable. And that’s where you are underestimating the perceived danger.
Am I? I’m one of the few Tories on here who’s closed out of a majority and thinks a hung parliament very possible.
My thinking is that Conservatives finish in the range 330 - 345.
Which at the lower end is wafer-thin and potentially less than Cameron.
The idea expressed earlier that a majority gives untrammelled power is utter nonsense. You really need a majority of fifty plus to govern effectively. A majority of ten is going to produce a very unstable government.
He’s certainly a more fluent liar than Corbyn. And far better at it than Boris. The best of the 3 I’d say. And the most dangerous in consequence.
Yes. Corbyn lies because he's not very bright, Boris lies because he's not remotely on top of his brief. There is an air of clear calculation to McDonnell's lies, which as you write makes him by far the most dangerous.
For those who like over/under bets, I`ve trawled bookies this morning and below is the pick of the bunch: Tories Under 350.5 W Hill at 5/6 Tories Over 346.5 Betfair Sports at Evens Labour Under 215.5 Betfair Sports at Evens LibDems Over 16.5 Betfair Sports at 10/11 (I took evens yesterday) More speculative picks: LibDems Over 25.5 Betfair Ex at 3.6 SNP Over 50.5 Betfair Ex at 4.7
He’s certainly a more fluent liar than Corbyn. And far better at it than Boris. The best of the 3 I’d say. And the most dangerous in consequence.
Yes. Corbyn lies because he's not very bright, Boris lies because he's not remotely on top of his brief. There is an air of clear calculation to McDonnell's lies, which as you write makes him by far the most dangerous.
Just out of curiosity, if Jeremy Corbyn said immediately after that, "And not mentioning that Palestinians also have similar rights," would that be relevant?
Does anyone here actually know what he said immediately after that?
Unnoticed, Elizabeth Warren's price for the Democratic nomination is sinking like a stone. She was last matched at 6.6.
Appalling news.
Pete Buttigieg is apparently inexorably heading for the favourite slot.
I only went and laid him off 2 weeks ago.
Probably a good time to top up on Warren in all honesty. And definitely lay Bloomberg.
Please, why lay Bloomberg when Clinton is right there to lay?
Because he’s also stupidly short, shorter in fact. I’m laying both. And Yang. And Michelle Obama.
Michelle Obama would win at a brokered convention. I'd go easy on laying her.
The problem with that being that Michelle Obama does not want to be President of the United States. I will be one of Biden, Warren or Sanders; I think Warren is more likely just because she can hold together the Sanders coalition and get enough Clinton Dems on board, but either of the other two could get it. Pete Buttigeig will not be the nominee.
Looking at the posts over the last couple of days, those on the left are getting increasingly angry and personal about Mr. Johnson and appear to be convincing themselves that this means the Conservatives are set to lose the election. I have seen nothing to show me this is likely so it looks like a prime betting opportunity to me. btw I am not a Conservative member or supporter and will not be voting for them.
Quite shocked by OGH's polling expert advice to voters in Battersea (where I come from). Almost as shocked by stupid Webb's kid-glove treatment of McDonnell.
Morning all and on thread, yes he is a growing personality within the Tory party and increasingly seen on the TV. He has the advantage of the fact that barring bizarre future boundary changes e.g. taking in large unfavourable chunks of neighbouring Sedgefield, he should never have to worry about holding his seat.
Been playing with Baxter this morning and the suggestion he makes is that at 28 Tory and 38 SNP (i.e. basically the same as 2017) we see the 1st change in seats between the parties with either the Tories taking Perth or Lanark or the SNP taking Stirling. If the SCons come within 10 of the SNP and Labour and Liberal languish in the low teens then SCons start heading towards 15 and SNP below 40 (because they have taken all SLAB bar Iain Murray). If lead starts heading towards 15 then SCons head for 10 and SNP for 45. My hunch right now is SNP will gain and lose and end up around 40 and the SCons will be between 10 and 15, right now nearer 15.
Hard to see SNP on only 40, that is a Tory fantasy
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1200315096435740672?s=20 Crosby finished his memo with a five-point plan: Be clear why this election is needed. Frame it as a choice between stability and uncertainty. Demonstrate to the country that the only way to secure that stability is with a solid and united party. Convince the public that this party is the Tories. And, finally, take every opportunity to contrast with Corbyn. On each point, Johnson is sticking to that script. He has set up his alibi for the election, framed it as Crosby suggested, repeated the line that every Conservative election candidate has signed up to his Brexit plan, warned of chaos with Labour, and repeatedly hammered Corbyn over his leadership on Brexit. Corbyn, then, is using the same tactics he employed last time, but amped up to 11, while Johnson is running a campaign that May could have run but chose not to. In a way, they are both fighting the 2019 election with 2017 scripts.
Corbyn has stuck some noughts on his retail offer since 2017. In principle, giving the voter every toy in the toy shop should work. His problem is that since 2017, a sizeable chunk of his vote have seen he is an unprincipled liar heading a gang of unprincipled liars when it comes to Brexit. They just don't believe him. And 2017 Tory voters aren't believing his offer, whichever way they voted in the referendum.
Yet the Tories are making the mistake again of offering no better future at the end of their tunnel. Indeed its all tunnel and no end. Even Brexit is now something to be endured, with no upside on offer other than it supposedly goes away.
Quite shocked by OGH's polling expert advice to voters in Battersea (where I come from). Almost as shocked by stupid Webb's kid-glove treatment of McDonnell.
What advice are you referring to? I have money on Labour in that constituency.
Johnson is a weak individual who is counter intuitively persuasive once he does pick a side. What that means is he will pursue the easiest course open to him regardless of what he may have said he would do or what ideologically it seems like he would do. Strength of a group influencing his party will be relevant, but more relevant will be whatever gets people overall to complain less.
You mean Johnson wins the election and then revokes A50 as it is less work than years and years of tedious detailed negotiations?
This seems to be much worse than anything Corbyn has threatened to do: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/ice-sculpture-to-replace-boris-johnson-in-channel-4-climate-debate Threatening to revoke the broadcasting license of Ch4 because he was empty chaired is nothing short of authoritarian bullying. You may not believe in renationalisation, but that at least puts these decisions in the hands of elected officials; Johnson is now threatening news sources doing things a way he doesn't personally like or benefit from. Does this explain the BBCs moral cowardice towards all things Tory at the moment?
Anecdote alert. One of my colleagues hails from Stirling. His parents are by inclination Lib Dems. They voted Conservative in 2017 to keep out the SNP. They are now concerned about Boris Johnson getting an overall majority and are probably going to vote Lib Dem.
Fux sake. They’ll let the SNP in.
Muppets.
I understand they’re well aware of that. Unlike you, they see Boris Johnson with an overall majority as an equal danger.
Committed Conservatives don’t seem to understand the antipathy he produces in a very large section of the population. The question is how far they will go to stop him.
No, I think Boris is a twat and I’m very far from committed to him. I understand the antipathy very well.
But, you’d think they’d care more about protecting Scotland’s place in the Union.
Reread your own last two paragraphs then reread my previous last paragraph. You don’t understand just how loathed he is.
No, I do. And I’ve read your posts and understood them. One man you hate or the future of your country. Not a difficult choice.
The future of the Union looks bleak under Johnson. I can’t see a justification for voting for either Corbyn or Johnson.
SNP still polling below 2015 pre Brexit vote levels, SCons still polling well under Boris and no surge for nationalists in Northern Ireland either
What about 2017 , your pet love for 2015 is mental and typical of how lying Tories work.
Comments
I tend to agree with you, so there may be some value at the odds.
Regarding Patel since she's been brought up its funny that whenever her name comes up people automatically pretend she is some authoritarian hanger/flogger because of a single 8 year old Question Time clip - when of course she has publicly opposed the death penalty for years: https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/news/priti-patel-finally-changes-her-mind-death-penalty
Labour's change of strategy on Brexit is testament to this. But they have no Plan B that will shift them back. Corbyn's studied ambivalance and wanky get-a-new-deal-and-then-vote-against-it has seen to that.
Corbyn is an in-and-in shit.
Boris deal = Maj
No deal = Minority with DUP support
Referendum = Minority with Lib Dem confidence but not DUP I expect
At the same time, most Remain Conservatives seem to think that Jeremy Corbyn needs to be kept out at all costs.
Nothing he’s done in this election has given me confidence he’s capable of any creative thinking other than to avoid her most obvious mistakes and to roll the dice again, on the basis Boris is Boris.
I expect history will show labour made a terrible mistake when they put Corbyn in office and he, more than anyone, enabled brexit by not standing firm in the remain camp so evident in the party. Had he rejected brexit from day 1 we would not be on the verge of leaving in little less than 9 weeks
I'd back Boris over Corbyn even if he suddenly decided to adopt the Lib Dem revoke policy and added Schengen in too.
What that means is he will pursue the easiest course open to him regardless of what he may have said he would do or what ideologically it seems like he would do. Strength of a group influencing his party will be relevant, but more relevant will be whatever gets people overall to complain less.
UKIP to Con. Brexit to Con. LibDem to Con. DNV to Con. Labour to Con. Referendum Party to Con (awoken from cryogenic suspension I reckon)
Con to LibDem. Lab to LibDem. DNV to LibDem.
Libdem to Labour. Con to DNV.
I have not found a single Con to Labour. And given that Labour were 7,000 votes ahead of the LibDems here last time, you'd think at least one person might consider it the right tactical vote to unseat the Tories.
Nope. Not a one.
Keep it simple stupid.
Neither Boris nor Corbyn are fit to be PM.
Pot calling kettle.
Notwithstanding the MRP, the 2017 result for Battersea was:
Labour 25,292
Conservative 22,876
Liberal Democrats 4,401
Tony Benn always used to say that he much preferred being on the opposition benches.
Are those holding on to some vague dream of robbing Brexiteers of their vote quite so motivated? More importantly, are their numbers remotely comparable?
One issue is that the most motivated activists are harder to switch than they should be. I'm trying to funnel all our activists to Portsmouth and Reading, the LibDems here ought to be throwing the kitchen sink at Guildford, which is literally minutes away. But although we're both having some success, a lot of activists can't bear not to spend time polishing the home turf, which is undisciplined in what is thought to be a movement of well-informed dedicated zealots. They're just not Stalinist enough!
https://twitter.com/proftimbale/status/1200319206283235328?s=21
Whereas there is no such constraint on a Johnson government. It's hard then to view SNP MPs as the greatest risk. Holyrood elections maybe a bit different, since some of the SNP ultras are advocating a Holyrood majority as a mandate for Independence - but then the voting system makes tactical voting less important too.
Bolton West was 55% + leave but it does have a University I guess.
Altrincham was very remain so it makes more sense but there is a strong-ish Lib Dem to squeeze the remain vote.
Interesting tactics certainly.
And definitely lay Bloomberg.
Crosby finished his memo with a five-point plan: Be clear why this election is needed. Frame it as a choice between stability and uncertainty. Demonstrate to the country that the only way to secure that stability is with a solid and united party. Convince the public that this party is the Tories. And, finally, take every opportunity to contrast with Corbyn. On each point, Johnson is sticking to that script. He has set up his alibi for the election, framed it as Crosby suggested, repeated the line that every Conservative election candidate has signed up to his Brexit plan, warned of chaos with Labour, and repeatedly hammered Corbyn over his leadership on Brexit.
Corbyn, then, is using the same tactics he employed last time, but amped up to 11, while Johnson is running a campaign that May could have run but chose not to. In a way, they are both fighting the 2019 election with 2017 scripts.
The people who would be taken in by McDonnell overlap with those who would send their bank account details to a Nigerian Prince they met on the internet....
Reading East 2/1 Bet Victor
Portsmouth South 13/8 Betway, 6/4 generally (I got 13/5 yesterday)
Because he’s also stupidly short, shorter in fact.
I’m laying both. And Yang. And Michelle Obama.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1200346723614375936?s=20
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1200332865168461825?s=20
And 2017 Tory voters aren't believing his offer, whichever way they voted in the referendum.
Tories Under 350.5 W Hill at 5/6
Tories Over 346.5 Betfair Sports at Evens
Labour Under 215.5 Betfair Sports at Evens
LibDems Over 16.5 Betfair Sports at 10/11 (I took evens yesterday)
More speculative picks:
LibDems Over 25.5 Betfair Ex at 3.6
SNP Over 50.5 Betfair Ex at 4.7
Does anyone here actually know what he said immediately after that?
I have seen nothing to show me this is likely so it looks like a prime betting opportunity to me.
btw I am not a Conservative member or supporter and will not be voting for them.
Almost as shocked by stupid Webb's kid-glove treatment of McDonnell.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/ice-sculpture-to-replace-boris-johnson-in-channel-4-climate-debate
Threatening to revoke the broadcasting license of Ch4 because he was empty chaired is nothing short of authoritarian bullying. You may not believe in renationalisation, but that at least puts these decisions in the hands of elected officials; Johnson is now threatening news sources doing things a way he doesn't personally like or benefit from.
Does this explain the BBCs moral cowardice towards all things Tory at the moment?