No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
Can't analyse just based on inferring simple swings. There's clearly movement in several polls (including Greens and Brexit Party and SNP), that movement can be more complex than one imagines - voters from Lab going to Con, voters from Con going to Lab and Lab to Green, it's not simple swings. Thus, it's possible voters are leaving Cons, but we can't see it yet as it's disguised by other movements. We'll find out...
According to the narrative that this is 2017 redux, the Tory poll vote shares won't move much in the next two weeks. It's purely about how well Labour can squeeze the minor parties back to 2017 levels. It's the lib dem and green scores that matter, not the Tories.
Such excitement as one poll or another is pounced upon to spin for the posters cause and yet little has changed even within moe and I am content to expect a modest Boris majority with a chance of a hung parliament, but no more than a chance
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
It has changed. 10 days ago the Tories were at minimum 10 points ahead, more like 12. Now it definitely seems in the 7-8% range, with the trend clearly in Labour's favour.
I have said from the start, the Tories needed to keep that 10%+ lead as I don't believe that all the Northern working class support for the Tories will actually be realized come the GE, so they need a big buffer for when flat cap Fred getting into the polling station, thinks about his dad, and his dad's dad, telling him Labour is on his side.
The trend has been there for a while, it's just been creeping slower than in 2017 so it's gone more ignored until now. It looks like people are 'coming home' (I hate that phrase) to Labour, if nothing else because they are getting vastly more coverage - good or bad, it's still more coverage - while the Tory campaign has been almost entirely non-existent, just like in 2017.
It seems CCHQ and the Tories have forgotten how to fight a general election campaign. The last time they were actually proactive, rather than simply reactive and waiting for Labour to fuck-up, was in 2015.
I lumped on a hung parliaiment yesterday and that's looking on the money.
That is the most shocking thing. 2010 and 2015, the Tories fought a campaign, like really fought. When Boris became PM, despite all the media outcry, missteps etc, there appeared to be groundwork being laid regarding setting up the Brexit getting it done, people vs parliament type narrative.
I assumed they would then go into the GE with that, plus policies that showed why once Brexit is done, we can do x, y and z (yes BS, Brexit won't be done just like that, etc etc etc, but that's not the point).
This time they literally go days without announcing anything at all, where as every day Labour have some new money spending ideas to throw out at another demographic.
There's simply no cut-through. Look at today's 'big' Gisela announcement.
Like last time, I've been told the Tories have waited until the final fortnight to get going, let's hope that - unlike last time - they actually do.
Afternoon all. Just an early taste of all the redundancies that will be visited upon the country if Labour form the next government. Very sad for those concerned just before Christmas.
Perhaps more important is that it shows the bad management we can expect from a Labour government. The next two weeks are vital and you want all your staff to be as motivated and focused as possible. This I don't think achieves that.
Centre-right social policy and centre-left economic policy is by far the best electoral winner, regardless of the merits of such policy.
When we should be doing the opposite....that is the most depressing thing about the whole situation, the Overton window has shifted from the consensus of the past 20 years.
The Lib Dems trying to push the centre-left social policy / centrist economic policy are getting absolutely smashed, despite a huge percentage of the population agreeing with them on Brexit.
If he had taken out a super injunction it wouldn't be a question that could be asked
A super injunction would prevent the reporting of the fact that there is an injunction to prevent the reporting of the fact that Boris Johnson either has X children or has X children that he knows about and has acknowledged plus Y children that he claims are not his, or has the X plus the Y plus a further Z children that he thinks might be his. Such a situation, if it somehow came out, would be extremely damaging for him politically. If it came out before the election, well need we go on?
Actually I don’t think any potential Conservative voters would give a damn.
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
Can't analyse just based on inferring simple swings. There's clearly movement in several polls (including Greens and Brexit Party and SNP), that movement can be more complex than one imagines - voters from Lab going to Con, voters from Con going to Lab and Lab to Green, it's not simple swings. Thus, it's possible voters are leaving Cons, but we can't see it yet as it's disguised by other movements. We'll find out...
According to the narrative that this is 2017 redux, the Tory poll vote shares won't move much in the next two weeks. It's purely about how well Labour can squeeze the minor parties back to 2017 levels. It's the lib dem and green scores that matter, not the Tories.
Actually it is the Brexit Party score that matters in the majority of seats MRP forecasts the Tories will gain, as in most of them the Brexit Party vote is ahead of the LDs vote
"Jeremy Corbyn’s brandishing of a report that he claimed revealed secret Tory plans to privatise the NHS had clearly had an impact. If the actual evidence still seemed hazy at best, even some previous Conservative voters feared that the story might contain more than a grain of truth: “I’m a bit concerned about the NHS and the possibility of privatisation. I think the Tory party are considering selling, and that would be a disaster. Jeremy Corbyn says he’s got evidence to suggest that;” “Whether or not you think the Tories want to sell the NHS, it’s the fact that it’s Trump and he made his billions from dodgy deals, and the Tories are dealing with him;” “I worry about the NHS and medication, selling off the pharmaceutical side of things. You don’t actually know what’s true;” “It’s not only Corbyn who is suggesting it, other parties are too. There’s no smoke without fire.”"
Labour might have played a bit of a trump card here
Afternoon all. Just an early taste of all the redundancies that will be visited upon the country if Labour form the next government. Very sad for those concerned just before Christmas.
on topic great post thanks @Philip_Thompson. That said I am still struggling with the whole "looking forward to a banana and bacon pizza" thing so am withholding wholehearted approval for the moment.
Thank you Topping.
As for the pizza, don't knock if it you've not tried it. Cooked banana and bacon is a great combination and works really well on a pizza. By far not the strangest pizza topping I've tried - I daren't name on this site the oddest pizza topping I tried once while overseas (it was not a fruit).
It’s important to remember that polling questions on what’s the biggest issue to people needs to be distinguished between what’s the biggest for the country and what personally it is .
And of course in terms of voter motivation that will be key to those marginal seats . The Tories need Brexit to be the defining issue in those , Labour need Leave voters to put public services ahead .
Afternoon all. Just an early taste of all the redundancies that will be visited upon the country if Labour form the next government. Very sad for those concerned just before Christmas.
What were they thinking?
The optics are awful
The public schoolboys and girls/nepotistic appointments at the top of the party wouldn't really understand that this looks bad, as they don't know any genuinely working class people.
Such excitement as one poll or another is pounced upon to spin for the posters cause and yet little has changed even within moe and I am content to expect a modest Boris majority with a chance of a hung parliament, but no more than a chance
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
It has changed. 10 days ago the Tories were at minimum 10 points ahead, more like 12. Now it definitely seems in the 7-8% range, with the trend clearly in Labour's favour.
I have said from the start, the Tories needed to keep that 10%+ lead as I don't believe that all the Northern working class support for the Tories will actually be realized come the GE, so they need a big buffer for when flat cap Fred getting into the polling station, thinks about his dad, and his dad's dad, telling him Labour is on his side.
The trend has been there for a while, it's just been creeping slower than in 2017 so it's gone more ignored until now. It looks like people are 'coming home' (I hate that phrase) to Labour, if nothing else because they are getting vastly more coverage - good or bad, it's still more coverage - while the Tory campaign has been almost entirely non-existent, just like in 2017.
It seems CCHQ and the Tories have forgotten how to fight a general election campaign. The last time they were actually proactive, rather than simply reactive and waiting for Labour to fuck-up, was in 2015.
I lumped on a hung parliaiment yesterday and that's looking on the money.
That is the most shocking thing. 2010 and 2015, the Tories fought a campaign, like really fought. When Boris became PM, despite all the media outcry, missteps etc, there appeared to be groundwork being laid regarding setting up the Brexit getting it done, people vs parliament type narrative.
I assumed they would then go into the GE with that, plus policies that showed why once Brexit is done, we can do x, y and z (yes BS, Brexit won't be done just like that, etc etc etc, but that's not the point).
This time they literally go days without announcing anything at all, where as every day Labour have some new money spending ideas to throw out at another demographic.
There's simply no cut-through. Look at today's 'big' Gisela announcement.
Like last time, I've been told the Tories have waited until the final fortnight to get going, let's hope that - unlike last time - they actually do.
Well they aren't going to get much coverage Sunday / Monday / Tuesday as we will be back to Prince Andrew stuff.
Such excitement as one poll or another is pounced upon to spin for the posters cause and yet little has changed even within moe and I am content to expect a modest Boris majority with a chance of a hung parliament, but no more than a chance
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
It has changed. 10 days ago the Tories were at minimum 10 points ahead, more like 12. Now it definitely seems in the 7-8% range, with the trend clearly in Labour's favour.
I have said from the start, the Tories needed to keep that 10%+ lead as I don't believe that all the Northern working class support for the Tories will actually be realized come the GE, so they need a big buffer for when flat cap Fred getting into the polling station, thinks about his dad, and his dad's dad, telling him Labour is on his side.
The trend has been there for a while, it's just been creeping slower than in 2017 so it's gone more ignored until now. It looks like people are 'coming home' (I hate that phrase) to Labour, if nothing else because they are getting vastly more coverage - good or bad, it's still more coverage - while the Tory campaign has been almost entirely non-existent, just like in 2017.
It seems CCHQ and the Tories have forgotten how to fight a general election campaign. The last time they were actually proactive, rather than simply reactive and waiting for Labour to fuck-up, was in 2015.
I lumped on a hung parliaiment yesterday and that's looking on the money.
That is the most shocking thing. 2010 and 2015, the Tories fought a campaign, like really fought. When Boris became PM, despite all the media outcry, missteps etc, there appeared to be groundwork being laid regarding setting up the Brexit getting it done, people vs parliament type narrative.
I assumed they would then go into the GE with that, plus policies that showed why once Brexit is done, we can do x, y and z (yes BS, Brexit won't be done just like that, etc etc etc, but that's not the point).
This time they literally go days without announcing anything at all, where as every day Labour have some new money spending ideas to throw out at another demographic.
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
No conundrum at all. We (yes all of us) think Corbyn is a liability and an anti-semitic c**t. Does that answer your question?
I meant the "conundrum" for Labour. As to how it plays out in the aggregate mind of all those individual "Non Left Remainers" - such as your good self - we will see on Dec 13th, won't we?
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
The trend is pretty much spot on 2017 though.
Look at Labour's polling before and after the election was called.
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
They are up against a f##king total moron and his right hand man a Marxist...and whose party have a total nonsense Brexit policy. If this was Blair / Bad Al / Mandy trying to defeat the current Labour party, they would absolutely smash them back into the last century where they belong.
I don't know why the Tories are so keen for Boris to go on Marr, he isn't exactly an impartial or sympathetic interviewer when it comes to Cameron / Boris type posh boys. He really hates them.
Such excitement as one poll or another is pounced upon to spin for the posters cause and yet little has changed even within moe and I am content to expect a modest Boris majority with a chance of a hung parliament, but no more than a chance
If the conservative vote was falling then that would be the point a hung parliament becomes more likely
It has changed. 10 days ago the Tories were at minimum 10 points ahead, more like 12. Now it definitely seems in the 7-8% range, with the trend clearly in Labour's favour.
I have said from the start, the Tories needed to keep that 10%+ lead as I don't believe that all the Northern working class support for the Tories will actually be realized come the GE, so they need a big buffer for when flat cap Fred getting into the polling station, thinks about his dad, and his dad's dad, telling him Labour is on his side.
The trend has been there for a while, it's just been creeping slower than in 2017 so it's gone more ignored until now. It looks like people are 'coming home' (I hate that phrase) to Labour, if nothing else because they are getting vastly more coverage - good or bad, it's still more coverage - while the Tory campaign has been almost entirely non-existent, just like in 2017.
It seems CCHQ and the Tories have forgotten how to fight a general election campaign. The last time they were actually proactive, rather than simply reactive and waiting for Labour to fuck-up, was in 2015.
I lumped on a hung parliaiment yesterday and that's looking on the money.
That is the most shocking thing. 2010 and 2015, the Tories fought a campaign, like really fought. When Boris became PM, despite all the media outcry, missteps etc, there appeared to be groundwork being laid regarding setting up the Brexit getting it done, people vs parliament type narrative.
I assumed they would then go into the GE with that, plus policies that showed why once Brexit is done, we can do x, y and z (yes BS, Brexit won't be done just like that, etc etc etc, but that's not the point).
This time they literally go days without announcing anything at all, where as every day Labour have some new money spending ideas to throw out at another demographic.
imo it's because they've built an unstable electoral coalition based entirely on Brexit - as soon as they move on to what they do after Brexit, they don't have an offer that will satisfy both working-class leavers in post-industrial towns (Stoke, Mansfield etc) and the more traditional Tory leavers in (mostly) southern villages and market towns.
The Tories really shouldn’t lose this election . They have a lot of the fundamentals in their favour with the Leave vote .
Very few Tory Leavers will ever contemplate voting for Labour where as more Labour voters would switch the other way .
Tory Remainers so far have been quite loyal to the party . So it’s down to that group and Labour Leavers which will dictate the outcome of the election.
The BP standing down in those Tory seats has really harmed the Lib Dems . To not get a decent majority with so much in their favour the Tories really will have outdone May !
If he had taken out a super injunction it wouldn't be a question that could be asked
A super injunction would prevent the reporting of the fact that there is an injunction to prevent the reporting of the fact that Boris Johnson either has X children or has X children that he knows about and has acknowledged plus Y children that he claims are not his, or has the X plus the Y plus a further Z children that he thinks might be his. Such a situation, if it somehow came out, would be extremely damaging for him politically. If it came out before the election, well need we go on?
Actually I don’t think any potential Conservative voters would give a damn.
Well, looking at this ideologically - conservatives would care more than liberals or collectivists.
Mass hysteria, as usual, over a single opinion poll. We've gone from a landslide to hung parliament in the space of a week. **Sigh**.
Every single poll is showing the gap narrowing. Traditional Labour are coming home. Always do.
I do find it amusing how much certainty individuals can discern from polls. You're even predicting the motiviations of 'returning Labour voters'. If your guess turns out to be accurate, it will be the most counter-intuitive election of all time, because the traditional Labour voters you seem to have a psychic connection with loathe Jeremy Corbyn.
It's literally what happened in 2017
I thought Labour were regularly hitting 38 or 39% at this stage in 2017 no?
They had hit high 30s in some but were low 30s in others and leads as low as 5% had been reported. This weekends equivalent polls were 4,6,7,12 and 14 leads with labour 33 to 39 in VI
Its hard to envisage a gap as small as 4 this weekend and Opinium should surely be as big as 14 so Tories ahead of last time imo.
That tallys with Chesterfield and Bolsover feedback too.
If he had taken out a super injunction it wouldn't be a question that could be asked
A super injunction would prevent the reporting of the fact that there is an injunction to prevent the reporting of the fact that Boris Johnson either has X children or has X children that he knows about and has acknowledged plus Y children that he claims are not his, or has the X plus the Y plus a further Z children that he thinks might be his. Such a situation, if it somehow came out, would be extremely damaging for him politically. If it came out before the election, well need we go on?
Actually I don’t think any potential Conservative voters would give a damn.
Well, looking at this ideologically - conservatives would care more than liberals or collectivists.
Yet I only see leftwingers banging on about it. Funny that!
I meant the "conundrum" for Labour. As to how it plays out in the aggregate mind of all those individual "Non Left Remainers" - such as your good self - we will see on Dec 13th, won't we?
Ah I see. Haven't you purged all the "non-left Remainers"?
Afternoon all. Just an early taste of all the redundancies that will be visited upon the country if Labour form the next government. Very sad for those concerned just before Christmas.
Wheras not even close to how bad it will be under Johnsons No Deal at end of 2020
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
The trend is pretty much spot on 2017 though.
Look at Labour's polling before and after the election was called.
Since the first polls after election announced:
Savanta: Tories up 5 Labour up 6 Panelbase: Tories up 2 Labour up 5 Yougov: Tories up 4 Labour up 5
2017:
Yougov: Tories down 5 Labour up 12 Panelbase: Tories down 1 Labour up 6 Comres: Tories down 4 Labour up 9
I know you don't like to be skewered but all the information is out there.
Willbe a bigger than average Tory swing in Labour Leave seats and even 24 would be the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
I think your model overestimates LDs no chance of 30 imo
I think your model underestimates Lab 217 very unlikely imo
Con could be about right Small Johnson Maj most likely outcome imo
Those LibDem not-going-to-happen gains from Tories gives a bit of headroom for a Tory majority. Allows Scotland to be a bit worse than 10 holds and for Wales to creep back to Labour some.
The trend has been there for a while, it's just been creeping slower than in 2017 so it's gone more ignored until now. It looks like people are 'coming home' (I hate that phrase) to Labour, if nothing else because they are getting vastly more coverage - good or bad, it's still more coverage - while the Tory campaign has been almost entirely non-existent, just like in 2017. It seems CCHQ and the Tories have forgotten how to fight a general election campaign. The last time they were actually proactive, rather than simply reactive and waiting for Labour to fuck-up, was in 2015. I lumped on a hung parliaiment yesterday and that's looking on the money.
That is the most shocking thing. 2010 and 2015, the Tories fought a campaign, like really fought. When Boris became PM, despite all the media outcry, missteps etc, there appeared to be groundwork being laid regarding setting up the Brexit getting it done, people vs parliament type narrative. I assumed they would then go into the GE with that, plus policies that showed why once Brexit is done, we can do x, y and z (yes BS, Brexit won't be done just like that, etc etc etc, but that's not the point). This time they literally go days without announcing anything at all, where as every day Labour have some new money spending ideas to throw out at another demographic.
There's simply no cut-through. Look at today's 'big' Gisela announcement. Like last time, I've been told the Tories have waited until the final fortnight to get going, let's hope that - unlike last time - they actually do.
I see little prospect of any increase in the amount of groundwork in the Tory campaign in the run-up to Christmas. Apart from anything else, I have not noticed any positive enthusiasm for a party lead by a gang of buffoons, chancers, liars and cheats. This sort of leadership does not motivate decent Conservatives to turn out in the cold and the wet.
Willbe a bigger than average Tory swing in Labour Leave seats and even 24 would be the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher
I think your model overestimates LDs no chance of 30 imo
I think your model underestimates Lab 217 very unlikely imo
Con could be about right Small Johnson Maj most likely outcome imo
Those LibDem not-going-to-happen gains from Tories gives a bit of headroom for a Tory majority. Allows Scotland to be a bit worse than 10 holds and for Wales to creep back to Labour some.
If you think that the Barnesian model underestimates Labour at 217 - then get your money on Labour Over 208.5 seats with Bet365 @ 5/6. I`m on.
In two weeks time, by now those last few recounts should be coming through.... The picture should be clear. But it might be Boris's majority requires those recounts to come in.
Or it could be a 68 majority and we'll all have been in bed by 1.30 am......
Afternoon all. Just an early taste of all the redundancies that will be visited upon the country if Labour form the next government. Very sad for those concerned just before Christmas.
Wheras not even close to how bad it will be under Johnsons No Deal at end of 2020
No doubt the individuals concerned would be delighted with your expression of support and regret. No story about Labour is too bad to prevent some diversionary whataboutery eh BJO?
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
The trend is pretty much spot on 2017 though. Look at Labour's polling before and after the election was called.
Since the first polls after election announced: Savanta: Tories up 5 Labour up 6 Panelbase: Tories up 2 Labour up 5 Yougov: Tories up 4 Labour up 5 2017: Yougov: Tories down 5 Labour up 12 Panelbase: Tories down 1 Labour up 6 Comres: Tories down 4 Labour up 9 I know you don't like to be skewered but all the information is out there.
The lack of Tory drop is interesting this time around, but a) in 2017 they started higher in the polls and b) their campaign was abysmal rather than just bad. It will be interesting to see if they get ~ the same as May did, but due to vote efficiency and divided opposition, whether they get more seats out of it. I still think Lab can squeeze some more votes, and that Tories can drop a few. Again, I think Tory ceiling is 42, Lab 36.
The Tories really shouldn’t lose this election . They have a lot of the fundamentals in their favour with the Leave vote .
Very few Tory Leavers will ever contemplate voting for Labour where as more Labour voters would switch the other way .
Tory Remainers so far have been quite loyal to the party . So it’s down to that group and Labour Leavers which will dictate the outcome of the election.
The BP standing down in those Tory seats has really harmed the Lib Dems . To not get a decent majority with so much in their favour the Tories really will have outdone May !
The Tories won't actually LOSE the election, they are certain to wim most seats and 75% certain to gain an overall majority. A very large majority can lead to bad government especially with such a poor official opposition. A Tory majority of about 30 would mean that they can deliver Brexit, see off Corbyn and remove Boris in mid term if he buggers things up. The Labour party can get an electable leader and return to the days of New Labour, the far left will moan about that but where can they go? Hopefully the odious SNP will start to decline back to relative obscurity as well.
Crazy busy day with work so just dipping in. I remain convinced that national big Tory lead headlines are lagging polls not catching up with regional and local moves on the ground. UNS won't mean a lot in this election. Which could just as easily deliver a disproportionately big Tory majority off a small lead as deliver a very hung parliament led by Jezbollah - depends on exactly where the variances fall. A lot of seats in 2017 won with very small majorities - I wouldn't be at all surprised to see more seats and smaller figures for the majority in 2019.
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
The trend is pretty much spot on 2017 though.
Look at Labour's polling before and after the election was called.
Since the first polls after election announced:
Savanta: Tories up 5 Labour up 6 Panelbase: Tories up 2 Labour up 5 Yougov: Tories up 4 Labour up 5
2017:
Yougov: Tories down 5 Labour up 12 Panelbase: Tories down 1 Labour up 6 Comres: Tories down 4 Labour up 9
I know you don't like to be skewered but all the information is out there.
Didnt we start with a 25% lead in 2017 and end up with 2% So a movement of 7% only with PanelBase looks strange
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
The trend is pretty much spot on 2017 though. Look at Labour's polling before and after the election was called.
Since the first polls after election announced: Savanta: Tories up 5 Labour up 6 Panelbase: Tories up 2 Labour up 5 Yougov: Tories up 4 Labour up 5 2017: Yougov: Tories down 5 Labour up 12 Panelbase: Tories down 1 Labour up 6 Comres: Tories down 4 Labour up 9 I know you don't like to be skewered but all the information is out there.
The lack of Tory drop is interesting this time around, but a) in 2017 they started higher in the polls and b) their campaign was abysmal rather than just bad. It will be interesting to see if they get ~ the same as May did, but due to vote efficiency and divided opposition, whether they get more seats out of it. I still think Lab can squeeze some more votes, and that Tories can drop a few. Again, I think Tory ceiling is 42, Lab 36.
And I don`t think that (42/36) is likely to be sufficient for a majority.
Perhaps the unsafe trousers adds to his charm? Then again, according to Marquee_Mark, women don`t like him so maybe that doesn`t work.
It definitely does add to his appeal with some people. I've heard plenty of it. Mainly from men of a certain 'type'. One tries to avoid these sorts but it's not always possible.
The Conservative vote share isn't declining as it was, by this stage, in 2017. 45-47% for the right wing pro-Brexit parties looks like it's baked in.
I think this will be more like 1979 than 2017. The MRP implies that the Conservative vote share is dropping most in places in where it can afford to lose votes, while advancing in heavily Leave constituencies.
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
The trend is pretty much spot on 2017 though. Look at Labour's polling before and after the election was called.
Since the first polls after election announced: Savanta: Tories up 5 Labour up 6 Panelbase: Tories up 2 Labour up 5 Yougov: Tories up 4 Labour up 5 2017: Yougov: Tories down 5 Labour up 12 Panelbase: Tories down 1 Labour up 6 Comres: Tories down 4 Labour up 9 I know you don't like to be skewered but all the information is out there.
The lack of Tory drop is interesting this time around, but a) in 2017 they started higher in the polls and b) their campaign was abysmal rather than just bad. It will be interesting to see if they get ~ the same as May did, but due to vote efficiency and divided opposition, whether they get more seats out of it. I still think Lab can squeeze some more votes, and that Tories can drop a few. Again, I think Tory ceiling is 42, Lab 36.
My opinion is the Tory ceiling is 44 and Lab ceiling 38. I'm thinking a 43/37 result.
I do expect the Tories will do slightly better on the day than the polls suggest as there will be quite a lot of people who think they can vote BXP on the day and will end up voting Tory in the 317 seats, but that won't actually help them to gain any off Labour.
Who the hell are all these Labour voters that emerge out of the woodwork with a few weeks to go to the election ?
They're the legendary voters who Labour supporters say are 'returning home' whenever an opinion poll is produced that shows a slight narrowing well within moe. The same Labour leave voters who detest Corbyn, like Boris, are strong Brexit enthusiasts and deplore the idea of another referendum.
Who the hell are all these Labour voters that emerge out of the woodwork with a few weeks to go to the election ?
They're the legendary voters who Labour supporters say are 'returning home' whenever an opinion poll is produced that shows a slight narrowing well within moe. The same Labour leave voters who detest Corbyn, like Boris, are strong Brexit enthusiasts and deplore the idea of another referendum.
Ashcroft: "Jeremy Corbyn’s brandishing of a report that he claimed revealed secret Tory plans to privatise the NHS had clearly had an impact. If the actual evidence still seemed hazy at best, even some previous Conservative voters feared that the story might contain more than a grain of truth: “I’m a bit concerned about the NHS and the possibility of privatisation. I think the Tory party are considering selling, and that would be a disaster. Jeremy Corbyn says he’s got evidence to suggest that;” “Whether or not you think the Tories want to sell the NHS, it’s the fact that it’s Trump and he made his billions from dodgy deals, and the Tories are dealing with him;” “I worry about the NHS and medication, selling off the pharmaceutical side of things. You don’t actually know what’s true;” “It’s not only Corbyn who is suggesting it, other parties are too. There’s no smoke without fire.”" Labour might have played a bit of a trump card here
I think you (and the noble Lord) have it right here. There will def be cut through. NHS has problems and Cons' commitment to spend on it will be viewed in the same light as their "do or die" pledges on Brexit. ie don't believe a fucking word of it. Although he is positioning this as a first Johnson administration, it would of course be a fourth Conservative one and I think people will become more and more nervous in particular about the NHS as a result.
No different to Major's lead over Kinnock in 1992 then, just a lower LD vote meaning a bigger Tory majority overall
But the trend is shocking for the Tories. Their lead could well have halved in 10 days at this rate.
The Tories vote has moved zilch, nada on this poll.
All that has happened is Labour have squeezed the LDs a bit
Can't analyse just based on inferring simple swings. There's clearly movement in several polls (including Greens and Brexit Party and SNP), that movement can be more complex than one imagines - voters from Lab going to Con, voters from Con going to Lab and Lab to Green, it's not simple swings. Thus, it's possible voters are leaving Cons, but we can't see it yet as it's disguised by other movements. We'll find out...
Highly unlikely but given your communist outburst earlier your analysis is clearly one to avoid.
Nice. Mud-sling slurs instead of engaging? Or do you care to explain how anything I've written is a 'communist outburst', or is that merely your response to my criticism of Johnson and why I think his government poses a risk to the country?
As for the actual topic: it's not highly unlikely, it's quite feasible in the coming fortnight. It might be small, but small is significant in this election. For example Scotland, Unionist voters lending votes may move away, in Wales voters may move back from Con to PC, and Con to LD in England.
Perhaps the unsafe trousers adds to his charm? Then again, according to Marquee_Mark, women don`t like him so maybe that doesn`t work.
It definitely does add to his appeal with some people. I've heard plenty of it. Mainly from men of a certain 'type'. One tries to avoid these sorts but it's not always possible.
Just asked my wife: she says that Boris is a bit of a "cad and a bounder" which gives him a certain charm (she won`t vote Tory, but that`s cus she`s a LibDem). Then again she married me so what does she know?
I think you (and the noble Lord) have it right here. There will def be cut through. NHS has problems and Cons' commitment to spend on it will be viewed in the same light as their "do or die" pledges on Brexit. ie don't believe a fucking word of it. Although he is positioning this as a first Johnson administration, it would of course be a fourth Conservative one and I think people will become more and more nervous in particular about the NHS as a result.
The really dumb thing is that the Tories have been given some very good opportunities to attack Labour on the NHS, which they are not using. They should be laying into Labour on the implications for the NHS of their 4-day week stuff, signing back into the Working Hours directive, and most of all on Labour's plan to stop referring patients to locally-popular privately-run hospitals and clinics.
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
The trend is pretty much spot on 2017 though. Look at Labour's polling before and after the election was called.
Since the first polls after election announced: Savanta: Tories up 5 Labour up 6 Panelbase: Tories up 2 Labour up 5 Yougov: Tories up 4 Labour up 5 2017: Yougov: Tories down 5 Labour up 12 Panelbase: Tories down 1 Labour up 6 Comres: Tories down 4 Labour up 9 I know you don't like to be skewered but all the information is out there.
The lack of Tory drop is interesting this time around, but a) in 2017 they started higher in the polls and b) their campaign was abysmal rather than just bad. It will be interesting to see if they get ~ the same as May did, but due to vote efficiency and divided opposition, whether they get more seats out of it. I still think Lab can squeeze some more votes, and that Tories can drop a few. Again, I think Tory ceiling is 42, Lab 36.
And I don`t think that (42/36) is likely to be sufficient for a majority.
It probably wouldn't be, but it would depend on the LD vote efficiency and SNP. If we get to the ceiling, it's HP territory, and I think a lead of 5 or less is HP (I think the Tories could sneak a small maj at 7% lead nationally)
Can I just point out that Labour as a radically left-wing party is still polling higher than Brown and Ed all achieved
You can indeed. But I do have to in turn point out that they lost with their prospectus, and on current polling Corbyn will lose with his on two successive elections, thereby leaving the Conservatives in power from 2010-2024 and possibly much longer.
Well everyone keeps saying the Tories have run another dreadful campaign, it can't be that bad if they are still leading by 7-10% two weeks from the election. At the start of the campaign, they would have happily taken that lead. Would Labour have been happy with the same lead/deficit? Why of course they would - because we all know this is an **exact re-run of magical 2017**.
The trend is pretty much spot on 2017 though.
Look at Labour's polling before and after the election was called.
Since the first polls after election announced:
Savanta: Tories up 5 Labour up 6 Panelbase: Tories up 2 Labour up 5 Yougov: Tories up 4 Labour up 5
2017:
Yougov: Tories down 5 Labour up 12 Panelbase: Tories down 1 Labour up 6 Comres: Tories down 4 Labour up 9
I know you don't like to be skewered but all the information is out there.
I have not checked all your figures but YG is incorrect
First YG after election called was 36 Con 21 Lab 18 LD 13 BXP out on 1/11/19 fieldwork 29/10 to 30/10 Latest YG 43 Con 32 Lab 13LD
So Tories up 7 Lab up 11
If you are claiming to skewer someone please post the correct data
The really dumb thing is that the Tories have been given some very good opportunities to attack Labour on the NHS, which they are not using. They should be laying into Labour on the implications for the NHS of their 4-day week stuff, signing back into the Working Hours directive, and most of all on Labour's plan to stop referring patients to locally-popular privately-run hospitals and clinics.
I dunno. This is not a details election; it is a mood election. So Cons can huff and puff and but..but...all they want but the perception that they are running down and then selling (there's a logic fail right there) the NHS is taking hold. People are having shocking experiences at the hands of the NHS and are wondering if anything is going to change. Cons may have all kinds of plans to address this but the perception is that they won't. Because they haven't.
In the last few days I've started to be deluged with paid-for ads by the Labour party on my facebook newsfeed. Extrapolating from my sample of one, I conclude that Labour has given up on Leave voters in the North and Midlands and is now focusing on trying to take every last seat in London.
I think you (and the noble Lord) have it right here. There will def be cut through. NHS has problems and Cons' commitment to spend on it will be viewed in the same light as their "do or die" pledges on Brexit. ie don't believe a fucking word of it. Although he is positioning this as a first Johnson administration, it would of course be a fourth Conservative one and I think people will become more and more nervous in particular about the NHS as a result.
The really dumb thing is that the Tories have been given some very good opportunities to attack Labour on the NHS, which they are not using. They should be laying into Labour on the implications for the NHS of their 4-day week stuff, signing back into the Working Hours directive, and most of all on Labour's plan to stop referring patients to locally-popular privately-run hospitals and clinics.
But there is a difference between worker rights policies affecting the NHS and selling it off. Coz Labour can always just say "we will have a 24/7 NHS on a 4 day working week by hiring more nurses and doctors, paying them better wages and spending more money" whereas accusations of privitisation, something Tories ideologically are in favour of, are more difficult to wave away with something else. Labour's answer would be nonsense, but it would be nonsense in line with what people expect from them. The Tories just saying "no we won't privatise stuff" runs opposite to what people know of Tories.
A Populus poll for Finchley & Golders Green has Con 29%, Lib Dem 24%, Labour 14%, the rest being mostly don't knows/ won't vote presumably.
That's quite a difference from the YouGov MRP model, which has central forecasts of Con 45%, Lab 28%, LD 27% (albeit with large error bars on those figures). But then I guess the YouGov model doesn't take account of the LibDems throwing every bar-chart they've got at this seat.
Can I just point out that Labour as a radically left-wing party is still polling higher than Brown and Ed all achieved
You can indeed. But I do have to in turn point out that they lost with their prospectus, and on current polling Corbyn will lose with his on two successive elections, thereby leaving the Conservatives in power from 2010-2024 and possibly much longer.
I would argue that labour are 'missing' those ~50 Scottish MPs they took for granted during New labour
Comments
It's the lib dem and green scores that matter, not the Tories.
Like last time, I've been told the Tories have waited until the final fortnight to get going, let's hope that - unlike last time - they actually do.
I think it will be:
Tories 40%, Labour 38%. HP.
The Lib Dems trying to push the centre-left social policy / centrist economic policy are getting absolutely smashed, despite a huge percentage of the population agreeing with them on Brexit.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
"Jeremy Corbyn’s brandishing of a report that he claimed revealed secret Tory plans to privatise the NHS had clearly had an impact. If the actual evidence still seemed hazy at best, even some previous Conservative voters feared that the story might contain more than a grain of truth: “I’m a bit concerned about the NHS and the possibility of privatisation. I think the Tory party are considering selling, and that would be a disaster. Jeremy Corbyn says he’s got evidence to suggest that;” “Whether or not you think the Tories want to sell the NHS, it’s the fact that it’s Trump and he made his billions from dodgy deals, and the Tories are dealing with him;” “I worry about the NHS and medication, selling off the pharmaceutical side of things. You don’t actually know what’s true;” “It’s not only Corbyn who is suggesting it, other parties are too. There’s no smoke without fire.”"
Labour might have played a bit of a trump card here
The optics are awful
As for the pizza, don't knock if it you've not tried it. Cooked banana and bacon is a great combination and works really well on a pizza. By far not the strangest pizza topping I've tried - I daren't name on this site the oddest pizza topping I tried once while overseas (it was not a fruit).
And of course in terms of voter motivation that will be key to those marginal seats . The Tories need Brexit to be the defining issue in those , Labour need Leave voters to put public services ahead .
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-andrew-neil-interview-marr-bbc-general-election-a9225976.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR32TtZGpjDVsBaxowA85Ki2pVA4Kaut-xNJE3YhEqPxoJFoIaBAbnq2W7k#Echobox=1575032218
Look at Labour's polling before and after the election was called.
https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1200405210084134913?s=20
https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1200405972738555904?s=20
Very few Tory Leavers will ever contemplate voting for Labour where as more Labour voters would switch the other way .
Tory Remainers so far have been quite loyal to the party . So it’s down to that group and Labour Leavers which will dictate the outcome of the election.
The BP standing down in those Tory seats has really harmed the Lib Dems . To not get a decent majority with so much in their favour the Tories really will have outdone May !
I think your model underestimates Lab 217 very unlikely imo
Con could be about right Small Johnson Maj most likely outcome imo
CHB you change your narrative every single day of the week.
That tallys with Chesterfield and Bolsover feedback too.
"doing worse than last time but not by much"
Savanta: Tories up 5 Labour up 6
Panelbase: Tories up 2 Labour up 5
Yougov: Tories up 4 Labour up 5
2017:
Yougov: Tories down 5 Labour up 12
Panelbase: Tories down 1 Labour up 6
Comres: Tories down 4 Labour up 9
I know you don't like to be skewered but all the information is out there.
I'll get my hat and coat...
I`m on.
Or it could be a 68 majority and we'll all have been in bed by 1.30 am......
Genuine question you have been reporting Con vote hardening over last few days in your patch why do you think the polls arent showing any movement?
A very large majority can lead to bad government especially with such a poor official opposition.
A Tory majority of about 30 would mean that they can deliver Brexit, see off Corbyn and remove Boris in mid term if he buggers things up.
The Labour party can get an electable leader and return to the days of New Labour, the far left will moan about that but where can they go?
Hopefully the odious SNP will start to decline back to relative obscurity as well.
This is all the momentum (pardon the pun) the Labour sides need.
Hung Parliament here we come - and an end to Brexit.
I think this will be more like 1979 than 2017. The MRP implies that the Conservative vote share is dropping most in places in where it can afford to lose votes, while advancing in heavily Leave constituencies.
I do expect the Tories will do slightly better on the day than the polls suggest as there will be quite a lot of people who think they can vote BXP on the day and will end up voting Tory in the 317 seats, but that won't actually help them to gain any off Labour.
In other news I've bought a new Telly.
And the trend is it's happening again.
We will see where we are this time next week.
Although he is positioning this as a first Johnson administration, it would of course be a fourth Conservative one and I think people will become more and more nervous in particular about the NHS as a result.
As for the actual topic: it's not highly unlikely, it's quite feasible in the coming fortnight. It might be small, but small is significant in this election. For example Scotland, Unionist voters lending votes may move away, in Wales voters may move back from Con to PC, and Con to LD in England.
Then again she married me so what does she know?
First YG after election called was 36 Con 21 Lab 18 LD 13 BXP out on 1/11/19 fieldwork 29/10 to 30/10
Latest YG 43 Con 32 Lab 13LD
So Tories up 7 Lab up 11
If you are claiming to skewer someone please post the correct data
People are having shocking experiences at the hands of the NHS and are wondering if anything is going to change. Cons may have all kinds of plans to address this but the perception is that they won't. Because they haven't.
I would argue that labour are 'missing' those ~50 Scottish MPs they took for granted during New labour