but . . "The results suggest that the first week of televised debates between the party leaders has not made an immediate impact on the race." move on please, nothing to see here.
If Labour couldn't make a dent after their manifesto and the debate then when?
Exactly. Curtains.
As I said last week, those were the two potential game changers for Labour. It seems they haven’t worked, so now they need some kind of miracle. They’re four nil down with half an hour to play. And their demented goalkeeper is shouting at a nice Jewish family in the stands, and not watching the game.
Another of my predictions is maybe coming true. Labours manifesto is so scary and Marxist, it’s driving middle class Remainer switchers back to the Tories. So the LDs suffer.
but . . "The results suggest that the first week of televised debates between the party leaders has not made an immediate impact on the race." move on please, nothing to see here.
If Labour couldn't make a dent after their manifesto and the debate then when?
Exactly. Curtains.
As I said last week, those were the two potential game changers for Labour. It seems they haven’t worked, so now they need some kind of miracle. They’re four nil down with half an hour to play. And their demented goalkeeper is shouting at a nice Jewish family I’m the stands, and not watching the game.
I think another of my predictions is coming true. Labours manifesto is so scary and Marxist, it’s driving middle class Remainer switchers back to the Tories. So the LDs suffer.
I've actually started seeing the latter in action. I've put a smallish sum on us to take Hampstead and Kilburn for this reason. I think our vote will go up by a couple of thousand as Tory remainers come back in from the cold and the Labour remainers will vote Lib Dem after Jez saying he will stay neutral.
I like the way the Graun says the 19-pt gap shows the debates didn't have an effect. Er, I think it shows they had a very substantial effect!!!
Well not the effect they wanted!
Indeed. I don't mind that they have become so partisan at this election, plenty of right wing papers on the other side. But it's when they pretend to be impartial that it's funny as in this case, when their bias couldn't be suppressed.
19 points, I just refuse to believe that will the final result. 47% of the vote, no way, sorry.
Head. In. Sand.
No, the objection is well founded. 47% is clearly an outlier, even when compared with the run of positive polls for the Conservatives.
Looking at the figures from an historical perspective, the last time a party polled that well in a General Election was when Labour got 48% of the popular vote under Harold Wilson in 1966 - and that, of course, was when there were only three parties of any consequence contesting the election.
Even if there is a landslide at the end of all this, the Tory vote share is not going to be anything like that spectacular.
Another of my predictions is maybe coming true. Labours manifesto is so scary and Marxist, it’s driving middle class Remainer switchers back to the Tories. So the LDs suffer.
Yes I've always thought that's a real possibility in the end.
I did say that what I had been hearing was that WVM was anti Corbyn, and indeed it looks like WVM is.. The same goes for that guy on Question Time. He was wrong about the 5% but it doesn't matter that he was wrong, he thinks Labour are going to screw him (and they will), and others will think the same even if they won't be. Inheritance tax is the same thing, people hate inheritance tax on principle, even if they never will pay any (or receive from an estate that has to pay it)
Those advocating nationalisation of the railways clearly cannot remember how bad British Rail was. Grossly unreliable and inefficient and prone to UK wide strikes paralysing the entire network.
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?
100% elec trains No Beeching closures Lower subsidy Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester) Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.
Believe me it can and was under BR
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?
being 16 minutes late and all of the above? being cancelled so the next one is even more overcrowded? being charged 5p more for the same level of service? a smell of urine or vomit? lots of dogs? headphones that bleed? self-important people talking loudly on phones about how they are 16 minutes late?
I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).
but . . "The results suggest that the first week of televised debates between the party leaders has not made an immediate impact on the race." move on please, nothing to see here.
If Labour couldn't make a dent after their manifesto and the debate then when?
Exactly. Curtains.
Some of the polling may have taken place before the debate and manifesto.
I'm assuming Chuka could squeeze some Labour votes if he's a clear 2nd. Surprised the Lib Dems are so far behind in Chelsea and Fulham. Hendon was always Tories versus Labour.
I suspect the remaining Labour vote there is of the "Fuck off and die, Chuka, you Tory bastard" variety.
Those advocating nationalisation of the railways clearly cannot remember how bad British Rail was. Grossly unreliable and inefficient and prone to UK wide strikes paralysing the entire network.
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?
100% elec trains No Beeching closures Lower subsidy Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester) Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.
Believe me it can and was under BR
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?
being 16 minutes late and all of the above? being cancelled so the next one is even more overcrowded? being charged 5p more for the same level of service? a smell of urine or vomit? lots of dogs? headphones that bleed? self-important people talking loudly on phones about how they are 16 minutes late?
Being 14 minutes late so you can't claim Delay Repay
but . . "The results suggest that the first week of televised debates between the party leaders has not made an immediate impact on the race." move on please, nothing to see here.
If Labour couldn't make a dent after their manifesto and the debate then when?
Exactly. Curtains.
Some of the polling may have taken place before the debate and manifesto.
Opinium would see Leigh go blue for the first time ever. Last held by a non red in 1918 with the Liberals and even in 1983 the blues were 25% adrift. If Leigh falls it really is end of days stuff for Labour. Surely it cant?
Would be interesting to see the BXP where Lab is incumbent. Perhaps the constituency polls will show it. I think Nigel may have been really helpful to the Tories across the board.
I'm assuming Chuka could squeeze some Labour votes if he's a clear 2nd. Surprised the Lib Dems are so far behind in Chelsea and Fulham. Hendon was always Tories versus Labour.
I suspect the remaining Labour vote there is of the "Fuck off and die, Chuka, you Tory bastard" variety.
Indeed. I think the Lib Dems are going fare worse than expected in London. Not even because of anything they have done, Jez's Marxist manifesto has got a lot of Tory remainers running back home from the Lib Dems.
Those advocating nationalisation of the railways clearly cannot remember how bad British Rail was. Grossly unreliable and inefficient and prone to UK wide strikes paralysing the entire network.
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?
100% elec trains No Beeching closures Lower subsidy Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester) Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.
Believe me it can and was under BR
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?
being 16 minutes late and all of the above? being cancelled so the next one is even more overcrowded? being charged 5p more for the same level of service? a smell of urine or vomit? lots of dogs? headphones that bleed? self-important people talking loudly on phones about how they are 16 minutes late?
Being 14 minutes late so you can't claim Delay Repay
Yes, I've been through that thought process, although we're still on 30 minutes minimum in Scotland for delay repay.
19 points, I just refuse to believe that will the final result. 47% of the vote, no way, sorry.
Head. In. Sand.
No, the objection is well founded. 47% is clearly an outlier, even when compared with the run of positive polls for the Conservatives.
Looking at the figures from an historical perspective, the last time a party polled that well in a General Election was when Labour got 48% of the popular vote under Harold Wilson in 1966 - and that, of course, was when there were only three parties of any consequence contesting the election.
Even if there is a landslide at the end of all this, the Tory vote share is not going to be anything like that spectacular.
Opinium would see Leigh go blue for the first time ever. Last held by a non red in 1918 with the Liberals and even in 1983 the blues were 25% adrift. If Leigh falls it really is end of days stuff for Labour. Surely it cant?
Another of my predictions is maybe coming true. Labours manifesto is so scary and Marxist, it’s driving middle class Remainer switchers back to the Tories. So the LDs suffer.
Yes I've always thought that's a real possibility in the end.
Well he and his travelling predecessor make so many predictions that by random chance one or two are going to land close to the mark.
Opinium would see Leigh go blue for the first time ever. Last held by a non red in 1918 with the Liberals and even in 1983 the blues were 25% adrift. If Leigh falls it really is end of days stuff for Labour. Surely it cant?
Almost everyone who is afraid of the Revolutionary Comrades of Evo Morales will be on tenterhooks until the result we want is (we hope) in the bag.
That said, a consistent pattern of positive polling news for the rest of the evening will help to calm nerves just a little.
If all the companies have Labour still bobbing around the 30% mark (and ideally a little below that) then their steady and relentless upward trajectory, which we all remember from 2017, will have been halted. Then the question becomes whether or not they flatline for the rest of the campaign.
We have to hope that the Lib Dems can hold their remaining share (or, if they don't, that their losses include as many frightened soft centrist Remainers turning Tory to thwart Corbyn as they do various kinds of voters drifting back to Labour.)
I don't think the Lab manifesto made as much of an impression as last time. Two reasons:
1) No novelty factor. Most of it was similar to last time.
2) The media focussed on the total spending plans, rather than the individual goodies.
"Lab will spend £83bn more" doesn't win as many votes as "Lab will scrap tuition fees / increase benefits / give you a pay rise etc"
No, I think after the whole Corbynet fiasco Labour lost all of its remaining credibility. It doesn't matter what individual sweeties they offered, people just don't believe them.
Those advocating nationalisation of the railways clearly cannot remember how bad British Rail was. Grossly unreliable and inefficient and prone to UK wide strikes paralysing the entire network.
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?
100% elec trains No Beeching closures Lower subsidy Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester) Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.
Believe me it can and was under BR
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?
being 16 minutes late
I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).
I remember a 1983 trip on the Venice-Athens train laughably called the Acropolis Express. 8 hours late, and a train full of drunken Yugoslav soldiers going home on leave. It was the fastest train on the line, but would stop for a half hour every now and again for the drivers break.
Mind you, some of my friends had a worse trip on the notorious Magic Bus. That kept the speed up, but via the innovative technique of driver changes in the fast lane of the Autobahn. Ah, the joys of travel in less regulated days...
At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?
Almost everyone who is afraid of the Revolutionary Comrades of Evo Morales will be on tenterhooks until the result we want is (we hope) in the bag.
That said, a consistent pattern of positive polling news for the rest of the evening will help to calm nerves just a little.
If all the companies have Labour still bobbing around the 30% mark (and ideally a little below that) then their steady and relentless upward trajectory, which we all remember from 2017, will have been halted. Then the question becomes whether or not they flatline for the rest of the campaign.
We have to hope that the Lib Dems can hold their remaining share (or, if they don't, that their losses include as many frightened soft centrist Remainers turning Tory to thwart Corbyn as they do various kinds of voters drifting back to Labour.)
Still 19 days to go. Tick tick tick tick...
I do believe conservative remainers will return to the fold, along with others, scared witless by Corbyn's manifesto and that a majority does look likely
Almost everyone who is afraid of the Revolutionary Comrades of Evo Morales will be on tenterhooks until the result we want is (we hope) in the bag.
That said, a consistent pattern of positive polling news for the rest of the evening will help to calm nerves just a little.
If all the companies have Labour still bobbing around the 30% mark (and ideally a little below that) then their steady and relentless upward trajectory, which we all remember from 2017, will have been halted. Then the question becomes whether or not they flatline for the rest of the campaign.
We have to hope that the Lib Dems can hold their remaining share (or, if they don't, that their losses include as many frightened soft centrist Remainers turning Tory to thwart Corbyn as they do various kinds of voters drifting back to Labour.)
Still 19 days to go. Tick tick tick tick...
As I’ve always said you’re free to vote lib dem no way that it lets labour in so no need to fear a corbyn government.
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?
100% elec trains No Beeching closures Lower subsidy Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester) Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.
Believe me it can and was under BR
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?
being 16 minutes late
I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).
I remember a 1983 trip on the Venice-Athens train laughably called the Acropolis Express. 8 hours late, and a train full of drunken Yugoslav soldiers going home on leave. It was the fastest train on the line, but would stop for a half hour every now and again for the drivers break.
Mind you, some of my friends had a worse trip on the notorious Magic Bus. That kept the speed up, but via the innovative technique of driver changes in the fast lane of the Autobahn. Ah, the joys of travel in less regulated days...
Remarkably I was on that night train the very same year, although we got off in Belgrade. We felt clever bagging a compartment and drawing the curtains to discourage others, then the guard moves this Yugoslav family in with us who spend the entire evening drinking spirits and eating pickled vegetables.
At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?
The best thing now would be for the obvious Labour collapse to send their voters in the south across to the LibDems in large numbers
Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.
At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?
Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I suppose
At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?
The best thing now would be for the obvious Labour collapse to send their voters in the south across to the LibDems in large numbers
I know we need more polling but Corbyn's manifesto may just have scared so many that Boris is now the safe haven and Brexit is of lesser concern
Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
Labour are going to crash and burn 160-180 tories with 60+ majority no need to ramp them anymore
Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.
It might lead to complacency amongst Tory supporters.
Surprisingly no change whatsoever in terms of Tory Seats on the spreads following that Opinium poll. The mid-spread price from both Sporting and Spreadex has remained at 342 seats all day
Surprisingly no change whatsoever in terms of Tory Seats on the spreads following that Opinium poll. The mid-spread price from both Sporting and Spreadex has remained at 342 seats all day
Probably they don't think the gap will be that large?
Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.
It might lead to complacency amongst Tory supporters.
Honestly, I get the arguments that the Tory position isn't as strong as it looks. This might not be a 1997 landslide (though it really might). But even if the polls are overstated and tactical voting is up and they struggle in Scotland and Labour squeeze the LD vote a bit in the final weeks...
Who are the markets kidding making a Tory majority only a 1/2 shot?
Looking at previous Opinium polling this fieldwork is likely to have been conducted on the 20th to the 22nd the same as the Panelbase which showed a ten point lead for the Tories .
That’s the emergency straw clutching that’s needed for Labour tonight .
Umunna has realistic hopes still in the Cities. But they can forget about Chelsea and Fulham.
nah - he's plundered all of the Labour vote and the Tories he thought he had are running back to Boris, terrified of Corbyn's Crazies. Bet if you did that poll again now, he wouldn't be within 10.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.
Believe me it can and was under BR
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?
being 16 minutes late
I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).
I remember a 1983 trip on the Venice-Athens train laughably called the Acropolis Express. 8 hours late, and a train full of drunken Yugoslav soldiers going home on leave. It was the fastest train on the line, but would stop for a half hour every now and again for the drivers break.
Mind you, some of my friends had a worse trip on the notorious Magic Bus. That kept the speed up, but via the innovative technique of driver changes in the fast lane of the Autobahn. Ah, the joys of travel in less regulated days...
Remarkably I was on that night train the very same year, although we got off in Belgrade. We felt clever bagging a compartment and drawing the curtains to discourage others, then the guard moves this Yugoslav family in with us who spend the entire evening drinking spirits and eating pickled vegetables.
Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I suppose
Worth noting that the exit poll methodology was heavily reworked in 2001/5 and has had no major errors since.
And yet I use the East Coast Main line around 50 times a year and whilst it was in private ownership I did not have recourse to use the delay repay system once in 4 years. In the 10 months after it was taken back into public ownership I got my fare back because it was more than an hour delayed 7 times.
My recent experience of public vs private is completely the reverse of yours.
In reality all passenger rail operations are publicly owned - the state owns the franchises and let's them out under fixed term contracts. At the end of the contract rights revert back to the owner. Ironically most of the "privatised" operators are publicly owned (Cross Country a division of Arriva owned by Deutsche Bahn for example).
And double irony? The "nationalised" LNER? Run by DOHL - a limited company owned by the DFT but in reality run by Arup, Ernst & Young, and SNC Lavalin.
We don't know what the shares of the vote will finally be, the best thing to look at is basically the trend, that the Tories are now extending their lead. But how large that lead is, seems to be widely disputed.
How can you have some polls saying 19 and others saying 8? It's insane.
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?
100% elec trains No Beeching closures Lower subsidy Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester) Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.
They must be too
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.
Believe me it can and was under BR
Can you
being 16 minutes late
I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).
I remember a 1983 trip on the Venice-Athens train laughably called the Acropolis Express. 8 hours late, and a train full of drunken Yugoslav soldiers going home on leave. It was the fastest train on the line, but would stop for a half hour every now and again for the drivers break.
Mind you, some of my friends had a worse trip on the notorious Magic Bus. That kept the speed up, but via the innovative technique of driver changes in the fast lane of the Autobahn. Ah, the joys of travel in less regulated days...
Remarkably I was on that night train the very same year, although we got off in Belgrade. We felt clever bagging a compartment and drawing the curtains to discourage others, then the guard moves this Yugoslav family in with us who spend the entire evening drinking spirits and eating pickled vegetables.
A compartment? You were lucky...
We had to stand in the corridor until we got to Thessaloniki. If we sat down the guard kicked us until we stood again, " No sleeping! No sleeping!" It was hard to know which was worse, the stench of the conscripts or the spray of urine from carriages ahead when hanging out the window.
Honestly, I get the arguments that the Tory position isn't as strong as it looks. This might not be a 1997 landslide (though it really might). But even if the polls are overstated and tactical voting is up and they struggle in Scotland and Labour squeeze the LD vote a bit in the final weeks...
Who are the markets kidding making a Tory majority only a 1/2 shot?
Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I suppose
The 1992 exit poll still had the Tories taking most seats, just short of a majority
Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I suppose
Worth noting that the exit poll methodology was heavily reworked in 2001/5 and has had no major errors since.
At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?
The best thing now would be for the obvious Labour collapse to send their voters in the south across to the LibDems in large numbers
I know we need more polling but Corbyn's manifesto may just have scared so many that Boris is now the safe haven and Brexit is of lesser concern
The anti-Brexit election morphs into the anti-Corbyn election?
Honestly, I get the arguments that the Tory position isn't as strong as it looks. This might not be a 1997 landslide (though it really might). But even if the polls are overstated and tactical voting is up and they struggle in Scotland and Labour squeeze the LD vote a bit in the final weeks...
Who are the markets kidding making a Tory majority only a 1/2 shot?
If 2017 hadn’t happened that price would be 1.2 on the exchanges IMO. Just over 2 weeks out from the election and its been double figure leads in the last 12 polls...
Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.
It might lead to complacency amongst Tory supporters.
It might indeed, but then, incredibly, there's also an element who wish to be sure of voting for the winning side.
Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.
It might lead to complacency amongst Tory supporters.
It might also lead to a bandwagon where usual Tory supporters think there is no point lodging a protest vote. So seats like Beaconsfield, Cities of London and Westminster, St Albans, Dumfries get saved. Just a speculation. Point is even an 8-point lead would be enough. I know PB is full of smart, mainly conservative people, good probabilistic thinkers looking for all the possible angles and nervous about a repeat of 2017. But, as the man himself might say, "dudes", it's 19 points.
Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I suppose
The 1992 exit poll still had the Tories taking most seats, just short of a majority
The initial range had anything from labour most seats to Tories just short
Comments
Again.
Another of my predictions is maybe coming true. Labours manifesto is so scary and Marxist, it’s driving middle class Remainer switchers back to the Tories. So the LDs suffer.
"Con 47: Lab 26: LD 11 is a possible outcome. That would be a mega tsunami for Boris."
Ahem. Buffs nails...
Looking at the figures from an historical perspective, the last time a party polled that well in a General Election was when Labour got 48% of the popular vote under Harold Wilson in 1966 - and that, of course, was when there were only three parties of any consequence contesting the election.
Even if there is a landslide at the end of all this, the Tory vote share is not going to be anything like that spectacular.
Perhaps we should field Hamza Choudhury on Boxing Day to man mark Salah again...
Man City back ahead again, but looking fragile at the back. They are going to drop points over the season.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132117695
(if it helps, I pay slightly less than that. Last week was the first in five weeks I didn't have to fill out a DelayRepay claim. I hate trains)
Inheritance tax is the same thing, people hate inheritance tax on principle, even if they never will pay any (or receive from an estate that has to pay it)
It would be top trolling and would probably see them over the line...
1) No novelty factor. Most of it was similar to last time.
2) The media focussed on the total spending plans, rather than the individual goodies.
"Lab will spend £83bn more" doesn't win as many votes as "Lab will scrap tuition fees / increase benefits / give you a pay rise etc"
If Leigh falls it really is end of days stuff for Labour.
Surely it cant?
An adorably cute puppy.
Could be even simpler, just this photo, nothing else ….
'I'll be right with you, we are just tucking into a kitten'
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1198306056100646912
It's one poll. Let's not over-egg things.
That said, a consistent pattern of positive polling news for the rest of the evening will help to calm nerves just a little.
If all the companies have Labour still bobbing around the 30% mark (and ideally a little below that) then their steady and relentless upward trajectory, which we all remember from 2017, will have been halted. Then the question becomes whether or not they flatline for the rest of the campaign.
We have to hope that the Lib Dems can hold their remaining share (or, if they don't, that their losses include as many frightened soft centrist Remainers turning Tory to thwart Corbyn as they do various kinds of voters drifting back to Labour.)
Still 19 days to go. Tick tick tick tick...
It's not an outlier...
1.5 is 1-2 which is a 66.66% chance.
Mind you, some of my friends had a worse trip on the notorious Magic Bus. That kept the speed up, but via the innovative technique of driver changes in the fast lane of the Autobahn. Ah, the joys of travel in less regulated days...
Panic over for the moment
The best thing now would be for the obvious Labour collapse to send their voters in the south across to the LibDems in large numbers
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
Who are the markets kidding making a Tory majority only a 1/2 shot?
That’s the emergency straw clutching that’s needed for Labour tonight .
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/
And double irony? The "nationalised" LNER? Run by DOHL - a limited company owned by the DFT but in reality run by Arup, Ernst & Young, and SNC Lavalin.
How can you have some polls saying 19 and others saying 8? It's insane.
We had to stand in the corridor until we got to Thessaloniki. If we sat down the guard kicked us until we stood again, " No sleeping! No sleeping!" It was hard to know which was worse, the stench of the conscripts or the spray of urine from carriages ahead when hanging out the window.
(This is all true)