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  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited November 2019
    alb1on said:

    Roger said:

    Alex and Bibi can share a cell and swap stories about their best friend who will soon be joining them.

    Alex and Bibi are best friends with Boris? I can see Boris playing the Norman Stanley Fletcher role, although I am pretty sure the Porridge story lines never featured misconduct in public office.
    I was thinking of the one with the orange face
  • DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    The local council was gained by the Conservatives this May.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    The Labour manifesto launch has had little to no impact on the Betfair markets i'm involved in (Con Maj, Con 340+).

    Every day there isn't a decisive move, or even a meaningful incremental one, towards Labour is another dangerous day crossed off for the country.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    dr_spyn said:
    Blimey if that's the Indy headline...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?

    The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
    Hammond? Philip Hammond? You are having a giraffe. Complete and utter non event in 2015. Nice man in a completely boring way but about as far as one could get from an effective politician.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    dr_spyn said:
    I don't know who Miguel Delaney is but it would seem he's to blame for £83bn of new taxes.

    The sh*t.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    If it’s accurate.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    And as was also explained, constituency polls have a less than flawless reputation for accuracy.

    It would be nice to think that Grimsby would drop comfortably into the blue column, because a result like that would be expected only if Labour were to lose the GE as a whole rather badly. But I'll believe it when I see it.
  • kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
    I watched it, loved it.

    Le Mans 66 doesn't have the same attraction as 'Ford vs Ferrari' to Americans.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    Looking forward to it. Will go with the Good Lady at the weekend.

    BAFTA films are just starting to come through. I'll let you know if I see anything a bit special.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Indy front page focusing on Corbyn's tax raid, not his "investment programme". Somewhat surprising?
  • Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Blimey if that's the Indy headline...
    Ouch. Not exactly supportive is it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
    If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
  • Has anyone analysed this site yet? https://leantossup.ca/uk-now/

    Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
  • Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats

    You literally were abusive a few posts ago.

    A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
    Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Blimey if that's the Indy headline...
    Maternity services are certainly worrying. I remember a very dodgy place that I did a student attachment in 30 years ago with a very low section rate and no epidural service.
  • humbugger said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Indy front page focusing on Corbyn's tax raid, not his "investment programme". Somewhat surprising?
    Well what we learned from when Gordo tried to raise taxes on £100k journo / media types who also like to earn some extra with freelancing that they stick through their service companies....they get very pissed off when they are targeted.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited November 2019
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
    If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
    I was thinking of doing that in three one hour chunks. Like a mini series.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited November 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Blimey if that's the Indy headline...
    Ouch. Not exactly supportive is it.
    Indy’s quite Orangish these days, and they’re the one party offering fiscal sanity.

    Edit - not the most flattering of photos either. Looks like he’s lost his chin.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
    Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jonathan said:

    IFS: Labour Proposing the Most Punitive Corporate Tax System in the World https://t.co/oRoYcX0gCJ

    The prime minister wants to “fuck business “.
    Correction:

    The Prime Minister once said "Fuck business".

    Every page of Labour's 107-page manifesto actually fucks business.
    The Tories say "fuck you" to anyone who is poor or disabled, or homeless.
    Cant be true - Dawn Butler said there were 3000 homeless in her constituency when Labour ran the country - the situation is much better now.

    Unless she was lying and got caught out?

    Labour literally intend to fuck us all - but thats ok with you....
    Dawn Butler, lying?

    Say it ain’t so...
    Just listen to this crap

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCwFLUt6zgE



    No doubt the figure she quoted was for the whole of England.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Just found a Facebook Ad from the Lib Dem candidate for the neighbouring seat (50 yards) from my sofa.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
    If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
    A mobster movie? I think I'll just fall asleep right now instead. At least Lord of the Rings breaks things up with massive CGI battle sequences.
  • Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats

    You literally were abusive a few posts ago.

    A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
    Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
    Better hope that's not how the 'Rugby League belt' of voters who are all apparently voting tory feel.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the right to vote, wouldn't it be better if it was something that had to be earned. People could accumulate citizenship points, and when they reached a high enough level, they would gain certain privileges:

    100 pts - right to vote in local elections
    150 pts - right to vote in national elections
    200 pts - right to use the fast lane on the motorway
    250 pts - right to stand in national elections

    Points could be earned for serving in the forces, paying your taxes on time, keeping the streets around your house clean, your children having good school attendance records etc.

    And they could be lost by committing a crime, or other antisocial behaviour

    You're a clever fella. Would you like to think of some examples, from fact or fiction, where your behaviour is continually monitored and citizenship rights go up and down accordingly? Then tell me if any of them aren't cautionary tales, or dystopias, or China.

    Honestly, did John Spartan die in vain?
    Also Starship Troopers. Service guarantees citizenship!
    Demolition Man, that episode of The Orville, that episode of Black Mirror, 1984, China's Social Credit scheme (from the people who bought you vivisecting Uighurs!)... It's such a trope I'm surprised @rcs1000 got to the end of the sentence without realising it.
    Of course I thought of Starship Troopers.

    It was so obvious, I didn't feel it bore repeating.
    It's an anti-fascist satire! It's not meant to be a template on how to build a society! It's an example of how not to do that! You don't assign rights to people based on whether you like them or not! This is real life, not a school playground! Your proposed society would devolve into a dystopia very quickly! I don't have enough exclamation marks to express my disdain at your proposed Gehenna!!!! Aaargh!!!!

    ..and relax. Deep breaths, happy thoughts viewcode, happy thoughts.

    (Bites lip)
    I suspect Robert was talking about the book rather than the film. The former is certainly not an anti-fascist satire and does base it's society upon the concept of 'earned citizenship' through service.

    And it has nothing to do with likes or dislikes. It is purely based upon the concept that citizenship involves both rights and responsibilities and is something separate from mere existence.
    I was indeed thinking of the book. And I had my tongue slightly in cheek. (But only slightly.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    If it’s accurate.
    Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited November 2019

    Has anyone analysed this site yet? https://leantossup.ca/uk-now/

    Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.

    I think he needs to turn his computer off and on again....no way the Tories are getting ~400 seats with Labour only on 150ish.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
    Anyone trying to make a film about Ferrari has a torrid time with them. Especially anyone making a film in which Enzo is portrayed as anything less than awaiting canonization....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    I've applied for a proxy vote.

    Would anybody like to help me by spoiling my ballot at the election?
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    DavidL said:

    There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?

    The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
    Hammond? Philip Hammond? You are having a giraffe. Complete and utter non event in 2015. Nice man in a completely boring way but about as far as one could get from an effective politician.
    Hammond must be in the top 10 most boring public figures of this century so far. I cannot recall a single policy he promoted, bar the obvious Brexit battles, despite him being Chancellor for a good number of years. Even when May had a slender majority, it felt like paralysis with spreadsheet Phil there.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I've applied for a proxy vote.

    Would anybody like to help me by spoiling my ballot at the election?

    Which constituency?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    Has anyone analysed this site yet? https://leantossup.ca/uk-now/

    Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.

    410 seats? I'll take it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?

    The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
    I've found the Tory campaign quite arrogant so far to be honest. And now Johnson is running away from debating, little has been done to change my mind about that.

    The fact checking thing really pissed me off to be honest - but I hope it's given Labour some good attack lines to use.
    Well, you do need some as your others have all fallen flat
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats

    You literally were abusive a few posts ago.

    A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
    Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
    Look at your posts aimed at Big G. Then come back to me and tell me you were not abusive.
  • Just spotted that Labour will abolish the marriage tax allowance. Can anyone explain how that will not affect any of the 95% that apparently won't be affected by Labour's tax rises.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jonathan said:

    IFS: Labour Proposing the Most Punitive Corporate Tax System in the World https://t.co/oRoYcX0gCJ

    The prime minister wants to “fuck business “.
    Correction:

    The Prime Minister once said "Fuck business".

    Every page of Labour's 107-page manifesto actually fucks business.
    The Tories say "fuck you" to anyone who is poor or disabled, or homeless.
    Cant be true - Dawn Butler said there were 3000 homeless in her constituency when Labour ran the country - the situation is much better now.

    Unless she was lying and got caught out?

    Labour literally intend to fuck us all - but thats ok with you....
    Dawn Butler, lying?

    Say it ain’t so...
    Just listen to this crap

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCwFLUt6zgE



    No doubt the figure she quoted was for the whole of England.
    She’s talking rubbish anyway. There were a great many rough sleepers in Gloucester in 2009-10. There is no way Labour had ‘almost eliminated’ it unless for some reason they had all congregated in one city.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats

    You literally were abusive a few posts ago.

    A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
    Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
    Mate you keep going. We are a fairly tolerant bunch if you make sense. In my experience posters such as yourself think they have to be super punchy to be heard. Then what often happens is that they get carried away and KAPOW. Down comes the ban hammer.

    You don't have to come on here shouting the odds but go for it if that's your thing. We need a few more lefties on here if only as a social sciences case study.

    But you do need to make sense. So far the evidence is sparse that you can manage this.
  • No polls this evening?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?

    The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
    I'm sure none of us would like forced onto our financial uppers but to avoid having a PM like Johnson with the power an overall majority would give him it would be a price worth paying.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    edited November 2019

    Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats

    You literally were abusive a few posts ago.

    A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
    Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
    It is nothing to do with who you do or do not support. There are plenty of Corbyn supporters on here who make their positions clear without abuse. There are also a number of posters here on both sides of the political spectrum who go out of their way to be polite and avoid the normal political sewer. They deserve the same respect in return. It is one of the better things about this site.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RobD said:

    Has anyone analysed this site yet? https://leantossup.ca/uk-now/

    Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.

    410 seats? I'll take it.
    Looks good - but I have a slight memory of some other Canadian pollsters....
  • Floater said:

    There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?

    The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
    I've found the Tory campaign quite arrogant so far to be honest. And now Johnson is running away from debating, little has been done to change my mind about that.

    The fact checking thing really pissed me off to be honest - but I hope it's given Labour some good attack lines to use.
    Well, you do need some as your others have all fallen flat
    Blanking the lefties at Channel 4 is hardly running away
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
    Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
    I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.

    I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.

    I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Tempers starting to fray here, lol, wait until election night. Local supermarkets will be long sold out of sick buckets and incontinence pads.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
    If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
    Wait a week and watch it over 2 nights on netflix
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    If it’s accurate.
    Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
    Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?

    Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    maaarsh said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
    If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
    Wait a week and watch it over 2 nights on netflix
    There you go that was my plan.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jason said:

    Tempers starting to fray here, lol, wait until election night. Local supermarkets will be long sold out of sick buckets and incontinence pads.

    I'm hoping I will need a job lot of popcorn
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    Three weeks to the exit poll.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?

    The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
    Hammond? Philip Hammond? You are having a giraffe. Complete and utter non event in 2015. Nice man in a completely boring way but about as far as one could get from an effective politician.
    Hammond must be in the top 10 most boring public figures of this century so far. I cannot recall a single policy he promoted, bar the obvious Brexit battles, despite him being Chancellor for a good number of years. Even when May had a slender majority, it felt like paralysis with spreadsheet Phil there.
    He was not the worst accountant. He was a f******* awful politician.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    If it’s accurate.
    Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
    Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?

    Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
    I think so too. There might be some good value constituency bets on LDs in West London Lab defences after today's manifesto. Remain and financial sanity will play well there.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Telegraph front page -

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1197636202922496004/photo/1

    Picture chosen carefully.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited November 2019

    Three weeks to the exit poll.....

    And as far as I recall this campaign is two weeks shorter than 2017 so less time for labour to close the polls
  • Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
    Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
    I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.

    I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.

    I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
    I've just had a small punt on the Tories taking Don Valley (I was surprised they were as far out as 7/4). I felt bad for Caroline Flint as I did it but sometimes you just have to do the wrong thing!
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Jason said:

    Tempers starting to fray here, lol, wait until election night. Local supermarkets will be long sold out of sick buckets and incontinence pads.

    I can understand why all sides are getting bent out of shape because you could genuinely argue this election is the most important one in decades.

    Whoever loses (and the Tories not getting a majority is losing imo) is going to face an existential crisis.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    rcs1000 said:

    I've applied for a proxy vote.

    Would anybody like to help me by spoiling my ballot at the election?

    Which constituency?
    Hampstead & Kilburn
  • Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    Is that a wing and a prayer or do you have evidence to back you up
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    Looking forward to it. Will go with the Good Lady at the weekend.

    BAFTA films are just starting to come through. I'll let you know if I see anything a bit special.
    Thanks. Though The Irishman has a lot going for it it's short of a compelling story. It's no 'Godfather' and at least 45 mins too long. You'll like Le Mans and Bale for once plays an Englishman (albeit living in the US)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    dr_spyn said:

    Telegraph front page -

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1197636202922496004/photo/1

    Picture chosen carefully.

    It looks like the hand holding the manifesto has been photoshopped in.
  • Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats

    You literally were abusive a few posts ago.

    A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
    Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
    It is nothing to do with who you do or do not support. There are plenty of Corbyn supporters on here who make their positions clear without abuse. There are also a number of posters here on both sides of the political spectrum who go out of their way to be polite and avoid the normal political sewer. They deserve the same respect in return. It is one of the better things about this site.
    tbf I did go out of my way to use a range of colourful similies, not rude swearing words :) Actually I thought 'viewing the world through Murdoch's rectum coloured spectacles' quip was supposed to be mildly amusing. ;)
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    SunnyJim said:


    Have you never had empathy for the poorest in Society?

    Anybody with an ounce of empathy for the most vulnerable in society will be horrified by a Labour manifesto clearly designed to ensure the UK economy is smashed and with it the public finances the poorest rely on.

    I have yet to read or hear from a sensible expert who thinks Labour's plans are anything other than a disaster waiting to happen.
    Let’s not forget how everyone similarly threw the second kitchen sink at Ed Milliband in 2015. The day you can differentiate between Labour manifestos and leaders rather than decrying them end to the U.K. economy is the day we listen.

    Serious question. Is it more ruinous to economy to announce spending based on tax increases and borrowing this week, or the tax cuts and borrowing announced by Tories next week?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    There's just too much ground for the Tories to make up in lots of it.
  • Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    Is that a wing and a prayer or do you have evidence to back you up
    It's just a hunch.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    Is that a wing and a prayer or do you have evidence to back you up
    It's a "prediction". CHB is very fond of predictions.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
    Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
    I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.

    I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.

    I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
    You bought Con at 232? Should that be 332? Or was this an amazing bet some time ago?
    Always interested to hear where you think value is - what you think will happen is more interesting than what you want to happen (though that is interesting too, of course).
    Re: Grimsby - I never know whether a little knowledge is better or worse than no knowledge at all. Last time around gains for the Cons in Mansfield and for Labour in Kensington* seemed absolutely inconceivable, unless you were just looking at the stats without knowing the history.

    *I have recently looked up this seat in my 1994 Almanac of British Politics, which opined that if ever the Conservatives were reduced to just one seat in the country, this would be it, so rock solidly Conservative was it. Fascinating how things change.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
  • Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    Is anyone saying they wont ?
  • Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    I remain of the opinion that I have absolutely no idea. All I know is the uncertainty is not doing my blood pressure any good.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited November 2019
    This time in three weeks we'll have had the Big Bong ten minutes ago!!!!! :D
  • Foxy said:



    I see everyone is in fine form tonight - decrying the system destroying, wealth grabbing, Marxist revolution on one side whilst the other side reviles against the lying, weasly, narcissistic leader of a bunch of xenophobes and crazies.

    A normal night in PB land.

    Doomed! We're all doomed...
    Yes - we probably are :D
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Has anyone analysed this site yet? https://leantossup.ca/uk-now/

    Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.

    And the Tories winning some Welsh valley seats.

    Basically his model accounts for regional and E.U vote swings whereas others do not.
  • kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Telegraph front page -

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1197636202922496004/photo/1

    Picture chosen carefully.

    It looks like the hand holding the manifesto has been photoshopped in.
    Was it Prince Andrew actually holding the manifesto?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing

    It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
    If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
    I was thinking of doing that in three one hour chunks. Like a mini series.
    Unless you've got a TV the size of a bus I'd see it at the cinema. The photography is one of the best things about it.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats

    You literally were abusive a few posts ago.

    A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
    Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
    It is nothing to do with who you do or do not support. There are plenty of Corbyn supporters on here who make their positions clear without abuse. There are also a number of posters here on both sides of the political spectrum who go out of their way to be polite and avoid the normal political sewer. They deserve the same respect in return. It is one of the better things about this site.
    tbf I did go out of my way to use a range of colourful similies, not rude swearing words :) Actually I thought 'viewing the world through Murdoch's rectum coloured spectacles' quip was supposed to be mildly amusing. ;)
    Okay I will give you that. It is a good line. Just a poor chouce of target. Big G genuinely doesn't deserve the abuse even if most of the rest of us are fair game.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd certainly urge everyone to vote tactically this election for your best placed local candidate to beat Corbyn.

    Warning: in 100 constituencies that could be Farage's mob....
    Perhaps you could name those 100 constituencies.

    A few in South Wales probably, possibly Hartlepool and err ...
    Bootle?

    ‘Best chance’ can still include ‘no fucking chance without an actual earthquake.’
    Betfair for Bootle:

    Con 33/1
    BXP 100/1
    Labour voters in Bootle may vote for the Brexit Party. They will not vote Tory.
    I live in a very similar constituency and concur.

  • Foxy said:

    Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
    I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.

    We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    If it’s accurate.
    Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
    Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?

    Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
    The Tories won't mind at all if all this means is that the Lib Dems rack up loads of useless second places down South, but only about half-a-dozen gains.

    Besides, thinking of the recent polling evidence, it would appear that (a) the overall Conservative vote share hasn't fallen relative to 2017, it's the same; and (b) that Great Grimsby effort by Survation suggested that the Conservative vote may not even have to go up by any significant degree in the Northern key marginals. The Tory share in that survey hadn't changed much from 2017, either. Virtually the entire change from last time was down to a net flow of voters from Labour to the Brexit Party.

    Bottom line is, there probably will be a lot of voter churn in this election, but we're not going to know how this will affect the composition of the Commons until we get the actual results.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    TudorRose said:

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
    Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
    I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.

    I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.

    I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
    I've just had a small punt on the Tories taking Don Valley (I was surprised they were as far out as 7/4). I felt bad for Caroline Flint as I did it but sometimes you just have to do the wrong thing!
    I think Flint will suffer the same fate as Onn in Great Grimsby. Not as Brexity as her opponent, too brexity for her party supporters..

    I would bet against all of the Lab MPs who backed BoZos Deal.
  • kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Telegraph front page -

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1197636202922496004/photo/1

    Picture chosen carefully.

    It looks like the hand holding the manifesto has been photoshopped in.
    I wonder if it is someone else holding it up. Certsinly doesn't look like Corbyn's hand.
  • Well Boris Johnson is right, Enoch Powell was talking shite.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    dr_spyn said:
    Do you know if it was all one girl or a troupe?
  • viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the right to vote, wouldn't it be better if it was something that had to be earned. People could accumulate citizenship points, and when they reached a high enough level, they would gain certain privileges:

    100 pts - right to vote in local elections
    150 pts - right to vote in national elections
    200 pts - right to use the fast lane on the motorway
    250 pts - right to stand in national elections

    Points could be earned for serving in the forces, paying your taxes on time, keeping the streets around your house clean, your children having good school attendance records etc.

    And they could be lost by committing a crime, or other antisocial behaviour

    You're a clever fella. Would you like to think of some examples, from fact or fiction, where your behaviour is continually monitored and citizenship rights go up and down accordingly? Then tell me if any of them aren't cautionary tales, or dystopias, or China.

    Honestly, did John Spartan die in vain?
    Also Starship Troopers. Service guarantees citizenship!
    Demolition Man, that episode of The Orville, that episode of Black Mirror, 1984, China's Social Credit scheme (from the people who bought you vivisecting Uighurs!)... It's such a trope I'm surprised @rcs1000 got to the end of the sentence without realising it.
    Of course I thought of Starship Troopers.

    It was so obvious, I didn't feel it bore repeating.
    It's an anti-fascist satire! It's not meant to be a template on how to build a society! It's an example of how not to do that! You don't assign rights to people based on whether you like them or not! This is real life, not a school playground! Your proposed society would devolve into a dystopia very quickly! I don't have enough exclamation marks to express my disdain at your proposed Gehenna!!!! Aaargh!!!!

    ..and relax. Deep breaths, happy thoughts viewcode, happy thoughts.

    (Bites lip)
    I suspect Robert was talking about the book rather than the film. The former is certainly not an anti-fascist satire and does base it's society upon the concept of 'earned citizenship' through service.

    And it has nothing to do with likes or dislikes. It is purely based upon the concept that citizenship involves both rights and responsibilities and is something separate from mere existence.
    I had forgotten there was a film made of it. I am reading some of his musings and predictions at the moment. A fascinating read.

  • Roger said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Do you know if it was all one girl or a troupe?
    10 different women involved
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Well Boris Johnson is right, Enoch Powell was talking shite.
    Absolutely. Nothing to see here.

    I don't think the Corbynistas should start competing on who said what 16 years ago or more.

    Could unearth some surprises about their man :wink:
  • Foxy said:

    Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
    I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.

    We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
    We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited November 2019
    More recently didn't Boris step in a help a woman who was getting attacked by a gang of kids with an iron bar?

    Of course, F##k The Tories, Jon Snow, saw a woman getting her head smashed into on a car bonnet, and not only cycled away as fast as he could, he didn't even call the police.
  • humbugger said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Indy front page focusing on Corbyn's tax raid, not his "investment programme". Somewhat surprising?

    That's a terrrrrible front page for Corbyn from the Independent.
    Looks like even lefty organs (and their owners) are waking up to what the Corbyn programme would mean for them personally - "£83 Billion Pound Tax Raid" looks like something the Sun might lead with!
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Remain supporters seem to think they can get all the Remain voters to vote tactically in strong remain seats but at the same time think Tories won't clean up in strong Leave seats.


    You do not get one without the other.
  • Foxy said:

    TudorRose said:

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
    Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
    I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.

    I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.

    I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
    I've just had a small punt on the Tories taking Don Valley (I was surprised they were as far out as 7/4). I felt bad for Caroline Flint as I did it but sometimes you just have to do the wrong thing!
    I think Flint will suffer the same fate as Onn in Great Grimsby. Not as Brexity as her opponent, too brexity for her party supporters..

    I would bet against all of the Lab MPs who backed BoZos Deal.
    Con gain Wigan, Leigh, Rotherham, Poplar, Hartlepool, Barnsley C, Barnsley E, South Shields, Easington ?
  • BluerBlue said:

    humbugger said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Indy front page focusing on Corbyn's tax raid, not his "investment programme". Somewhat surprising?

    That's a terrrrrible front page for Corbyn from the Independent.
    Looks like even lefty organs (and their owners) are waking up to what the Corbyn programme would mean for them personally - "£83 Billion Pound Tax Raid" looks like something the Sun might lead with!
    Well they are right in the firing line for a big chunk of that tax raid.
  • humbugger said:

    Foxy said:

    Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
    I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.

    We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
    We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
    It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.

    They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.

    Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Foxy said:

    Reckon Labour will hold much of the North.

    I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
    I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.

    We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
    You may turn out to be correct. That's why I'm still afraid of 2017 Mk.2, and probably will be, to a greater or lesser degree, until election night.

    On the other hand, maybe more of these Labour voters really are prepared to back Boris Johnson (who, lest we forget, won the London mayoralty twice) when they wouldn't vote for Theresa May? Or, perhaps, some of the Labour Remainers will be so disgusted with Corbyn's lukewarm attitude to the EU that they defect to the Lib Dems instead? Or some of the Labour Leavers might, equally, be so disgusted that they defect to the Brexit Party? And Labourites who don't think much to the current leadership, but can't bear to vote for anyone else, might simply stay at home?

    We just don't know, do we?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.

    If it’s accurate.
    Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
    Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?

    Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
    But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
  • Has anyone analysed this site yet? https://leantossup.ca/uk-now/

    Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.

    I think he needs to turn his computer off and on again....no way the Tories are getting ~400 seats with Labour only on 150ish.
    Tories ~400 seats seems more plausible than Tories winning the North East!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited November 2019
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1197640510694928390

    I front page. Has 3 weeks to make up 10 % point deficit.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited November 2019
This discussion has been closed.