Alex and Bibi can share a cell and swap stories about their best friend who will soon be joining them.
Alex and Bibi are best friends with Boris? I can see Boris playing the Norman Stanley Fletcher role, although I am pretty sure the Porridge story lines never featured misconduct in public office.
There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?
The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
Hammond? Philip Hammond? You are having a giraffe. Complete and utter non event in 2015. Nice man in a completely boring way but about as far as one could get from an effective politician.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
And as was also explained, constituency polls have a less than flawless reputation for accuracy.
It would be nice to think that Grimsby would drop comfortably into the blue column, because a result like that would be expected only if Labour were to lose the GE as a whole rather badly. But I'll believe it when I see it.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
I watched it, loved it.
Le Mans 66 doesn't have the same attraction as 'Ford vs Ferrari' to Americans.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
Looking forward to it. Will go with the Good Lady at the weekend.
BAFTA films are just starting to come through. I'll let you know if I see anything a bit special.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats
You literally were abusive a few posts ago.
A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
Maternity services are certainly worrying. I remember a very dodgy place that I did a student attachment in 30 years ago with a very low section rate and no epidural service.
Indy front page focusing on Corbyn's tax raid, not his "investment programme". Somewhat surprising?
Well what we learned from when Gordo tried to raise taxes on £100k journo / media types who also like to earn some extra with freelancing that they stick through their service companies....they get very pissed off when they are targeted.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
I was thinking of doing that in three one hour chunks. Like a mini series.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
A mobster movie? I think I'll just fall asleep right now instead. At least Lord of the Rings breaks things up with massive CGI battle sequences.
Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats
You literally were abusive a few posts ago.
A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
Better hope that's not how the 'Rugby League belt' of voters who are all apparently voting tory feel.
Re the right to vote, wouldn't it be better if it was something that had to be earned. People could accumulate citizenship points, and when they reached a high enough level, they would gain certain privileges:
100 pts - right to vote in local elections 150 pts - right to vote in national elections 200 pts - right to use the fast lane on the motorway 250 pts - right to stand in national elections
Points could be earned for serving in the forces, paying your taxes on time, keeping the streets around your house clean, your children having good school attendance records etc.
And they could be lost by committing a crime, or other antisocial behaviour
You're a clever fella. Would you like to think of some examples, from fact or fiction, where your behaviour is continually monitored and citizenship rights go up and down accordingly? Then tell me if any of them aren't cautionary tales, or dystopias, or China.
Honestly, did John Spartan die in vain?
Also Starship Troopers. Service guarantees citizenship!
Demolition Man, that episode of The Orville, that episode of Black Mirror, 1984, China's Social Credit scheme (from the people who bought you vivisecting Uighurs!)... It's such a trope I'm surprised @rcs1000 got to the end of the sentence without realising it.
Of course I thought of Starship Troopers.
It was so obvious, I didn't feel it bore repeating.
It's an anti-fascist satire! It's not meant to be a template on how to build a society! It's an example of how not to do that! You don't assign rights to people based on whether you like them or not! This is real life, not a school playground! Your proposed society would devolve into a dystopia very quickly! I don't have enough exclamation marks to express my disdain at your proposed Gehenna!!!! Aaargh!!!!
..and relax. Deep breaths, happy thoughts viewcode, happy thoughts.
(Bites lip)
I suspect Robert was talking about the book rather than the film. The former is certainly not an anti-fascist satire and does base it's society upon the concept of 'earned citizenship' through service.
And it has nothing to do with likes or dislikes. It is purely based upon the concept that citizenship involves both rights and responsibilities and is something separate from mere existence.
I was indeed thinking of the book. And I had my tongue slightly in cheek. (But only slightly.)
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
I think he needs to turn his computer off and on again....no way the Tories are getting ~400 seats with Labour only on 150ish.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
Anyone trying to make a film about Ferrari has a torrid time with them. Especially anyone making a film in which Enzo is portrayed as anything less than awaiting canonization....
There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?
The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
Hammond? Philip Hammond? You are having a giraffe. Complete and utter non event in 2015. Nice man in a completely boring way but about as far as one could get from an effective politician.
Hammond must be in the top 10 most boring public figures of this century so far. I cannot recall a single policy he promoted, bar the obvious Brexit battles, despite him being Chancellor for a good number of years. Even when May had a slender majority, it felt like paralysis with spreadsheet Phil there.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?
The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
I've found the Tory campaign quite arrogant so far to be honest. And now Johnson is running away from debating, little has been done to change my mind about that.
The fact checking thing really pissed me off to be honest - but I hope it's given Labour some good attack lines to use.
Well, you do need some as your others have all fallen flat
Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats
You literally were abusive a few posts ago.
A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
Look at your posts aimed at Big G. Then come back to me and tell me you were not abusive.
Just spotted that Labour will abolish the marriage tax allowance. Can anyone explain how that will not affect any of the 95% that apparently won't be affected by Labour's tax rises.
No doubt the figure she quoted was for the whole of England.
She’s talking rubbish anyway. There were a great many rough sleepers in Gloucester in 2009-10. There is no way Labour had ‘almost eliminated’ it unless for some reason they had all congregated in one city.
Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats
You literally were abusive a few posts ago.
A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
Mate you keep going. We are a fairly tolerant bunch if you make sense. In my experience posters such as yourself think they have to be super punchy to be heard. Then what often happens is that they get carried away and KAPOW. Down comes the ban hammer.
You don't have to come on here shouting the odds but go for it if that's your thing. We need a few more lefties on here if only as a social sciences case study.
But you do need to make sense. So far the evidence is sparse that you can manage this.
There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?
The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
I'm sure none of us would like forced onto our financial uppers but to avoid having a PM like Johnson with the power an overall majority would give him it would be a price worth paying.
Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats
You literally were abusive a few posts ago.
A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
It is nothing to do with who you do or do not support. There are plenty of Corbyn supporters on here who make their positions clear without abuse. There are also a number of posters here on both sides of the political spectrum who go out of their way to be polite and avoid the normal political sewer. They deserve the same respect in return. It is one of the better things about this site.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
410 seats? I'll take it.
Looks good - but I have a slight memory of some other Canadian pollsters....
There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?
The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
I've found the Tory campaign quite arrogant so far to be honest. And now Johnson is running away from debating, little has been done to change my mind about that.
The fact checking thing really pissed me off to be honest - but I hope it's given Labour some good attack lines to use.
Well, you do need some as your others have all fallen flat
Blanking the lefties at Channel 4 is hardly running away
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
There seems to be a lot of anti-Labour panic posts on here tonight. I wonder why?
The Tories certainly appear a little overwrought. If Jezza's manifesto is as ruinous as they claim, then it should be a piece of cake to discredit it. However, since exiling their powerful operators such as Hammond and Gauke, they must fear that they no longer have the political firepower, and Jezza may emerge relatively unscathed. Their fear is justified.
Hammond? Philip Hammond? You are having a giraffe. Complete and utter non event in 2015. Nice man in a completely boring way but about as far as one could get from an effective politician.
Hammond must be in the top 10 most boring public figures of this century so far. I cannot recall a single policy he promoted, bar the obvious Brexit battles, despite him being Chancellor for a good number of years. Even when May had a slender majority, it felt like paralysis with spreadsheet Phil there.
He was not the worst accountant. He was a f******* awful politician.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
I think so too. There might be some good value constituency bets on LDs in West London Lab defences after today's manifesto. Remain and financial sanity will play well there.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
I've just had a small punt on the Tories taking Don Valley (I was surprised they were as far out as 7/4). I felt bad for Caroline Flint as I did it but sometimes you just have to do the wrong thing!
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
Looking forward to it. Will go with the Good Lady at the weekend.
BAFTA films are just starting to come through. I'll let you know if I see anything a bit special.
Thanks. Though The Irishman has a lot going for it it's short of a compelling story. It's no 'Godfather' and at least 45 mins too long. You'll like Le Mans and Bale for once plays an Englishman (albeit living in the US)
Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats
You literally were abusive a few posts ago.
A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
It is nothing to do with who you do or do not support. There are plenty of Corbyn supporters on here who make their positions clear without abuse. There are also a number of posters here on both sides of the political spectrum who go out of their way to be polite and avoid the normal political sewer. They deserve the same respect in return. It is one of the better things about this site.
tbf I did go out of my way to use a range of colourful similies, not rude swearing words Actually I thought 'viewing the world through Murdoch's rectum coloured spectacles' quip was supposed to be mildly amusing.
Have you never had empathy for the poorest in Society?
Anybody with an ounce of empathy for the most vulnerable in society will be horrified by a Labour manifesto clearly designed to ensure the UK economy is smashed and with it the public finances the poorest rely on.
I have yet to read or hear from a sensible expert who thinks Labour's plans are anything other than a disaster waiting to happen.
Let’s not forget how everyone similarly threw the second kitchen sink at Ed Milliband in 2015. The day you can differentiate between Labour manifestos and leaders rather than decrying them end to the U.K. economy is the day we listen.
Serious question. Is it more ruinous to economy to announce spending based on tax increases and borrowing this week, or the tax cuts and borrowing announced by Tories next week?
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
You bought Con at 232? Should that be 332? Or was this an amazing bet some time ago? Always interested to hear where you think value is - what you think will happen is more interesting than what you want to happen (though that is interesting too, of course). Re: Grimsby - I never know whether a little knowledge is better or worse than no knowledge at all. Last time around gains for the Cons in Mansfield and for Labour in Kensington* seemed absolutely inconceivable, unless you were just looking at the stats without knowing the history.
*I have recently looked up this seat in my 1994 Almanac of British Politics, which opined that if ever the Conservatives were reduced to just one seat in the country, this would be it, so rock solidly Conservative was it. Fascinating how things change.
I see everyone is in fine form tonight - decrying the system destroying, wealth grabbing, Marxist revolution on one side whilst the other side reviles against the lying, weasly, narcissistic leader of a bunch of xenophobes and crazies.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
And the Tories winning some Welsh valley seats.
Basically his model accounts for regional and E.U vote swings whereas others do not.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
It was originally called Ford vs Ferrari, I wonder why they changed it as it is a far better title. Looked decent, but 2.5hrs?
If you think that's long try 'The Irishman' with De Nero. All 3.5 hours of it. Also out now.
I was thinking of doing that in three one hour chunks. Like a mini series.
Unless you've got a TV the size of a bus I'd see it at the cinema. The photography is one of the best things about it.
Incidentally disagreeing with the Bullingdon Bully Boys does not constitute abuse. You cant shackle us yet until you get your 450 seats
You literally were abusive a few posts ago.
A weird phenomenon I have noticed is that Big G seems to drive a certain subset of troll absolutely wild. Quite bizarre but also fascinating.
Sorry but I still fail to see how not supporting Boris means I am a 'certain subset of troll' and abusive... Yet the continual condemnation of any left wingers as Marxist anti-patriots is apparently quite acceptable? I think we are at a stage where the level of lying from the blue team is simply disrespectfully sickening,
It is nothing to do with who you do or do not support. There are plenty of Corbyn supporters on here who make their positions clear without abuse. There are also a number of posters here on both sides of the political spectrum who go out of their way to be polite and avoid the normal political sewer. They deserve the same respect in return. It is one of the better things about this site.
tbf I did go out of my way to use a range of colourful similies, not rude swearing words Actually I thought 'viewing the world through Murdoch's rectum coloured spectacles' quip was supposed to be mildly amusing.
Okay I will give you that. It is a good line. Just a poor chouce of target. Big G genuinely doesn't deserve the abuse even if most of the rest of us are fair game.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
The Tories won't mind at all if all this means is that the Lib Dems rack up loads of useless second places down South, but only about half-a-dozen gains.
Besides, thinking of the recent polling evidence, it would appear that (a) the overall Conservative vote share hasn't fallen relative to 2017, it's the same; and (b) that Great Grimsby effort by Survation suggested that the Conservative vote may not even have to go up by any significant degree in the Northern key marginals. The Tory share in that survey hadn't changed much from 2017, either. Virtually the entire change from last time was down to a net flow of voters from Labour to the Brexit Party.
Bottom line is, there probably will be a lot of voter churn in this election, but we're not going to know how this will affect the composition of the Commons until we get the actual results.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
I've just had a small punt on the Tories taking Don Valley (I was surprised they were as far out as 7/4). I felt bad for Caroline Flint as I did it but sometimes you just have to do the wrong thing!
I think Flint will suffer the same fate as Onn in Great Grimsby. Not as Brexity as her opponent, too brexity for her party supporters..
I would bet against all of the Lab MPs who backed BoZos Deal.
Re the right to vote, wouldn't it be better if it was something that had to be earned. People could accumulate citizenship points, and when they reached a high enough level, they would gain certain privileges:
100 pts - right to vote in local elections 150 pts - right to vote in national elections 200 pts - right to use the fast lane on the motorway 250 pts - right to stand in national elections
Points could be earned for serving in the forces, paying your taxes on time, keeping the streets around your house clean, your children having good school attendance records etc.
And they could be lost by committing a crime, or other antisocial behaviour
You're a clever fella. Would you like to think of some examples, from fact or fiction, where your behaviour is continually monitored and citizenship rights go up and down accordingly? Then tell me if any of them aren't cautionary tales, or dystopias, or China.
Honestly, did John Spartan die in vain?
Also Starship Troopers. Service guarantees citizenship!
Demolition Man, that episode of The Orville, that episode of Black Mirror, 1984, China's Social Credit scheme (from the people who bought you vivisecting Uighurs!)... It's such a trope I'm surprised @rcs1000 got to the end of the sentence without realising it.
Of course I thought of Starship Troopers.
It was so obvious, I didn't feel it bore repeating.
It's an anti-fascist satire! It's not meant to be a template on how to build a society! It's an example of how not to do that! You don't assign rights to people based on whether you like them or not! This is real life, not a school playground! Your proposed society would devolve into a dystopia very quickly! I don't have enough exclamation marks to express my disdain at your proposed Gehenna!!!! Aaargh!!!!
..and relax. Deep breaths, happy thoughts viewcode, happy thoughts.
(Bites lip)
I suspect Robert was talking about the book rather than the film. The former is certainly not an anti-fascist satire and does base it's society upon the concept of 'earned citizenship' through service.
And it has nothing to do with likes or dislikes. It is purely based upon the concept that citizenship involves both rights and responsibilities and is something separate from mere existence.
I had forgotten there was a film made of it. I am reading some of his musings and predictions at the moment. A fascinating read.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
More recently didn't Boris step in a help a woman who was getting attacked by a gang of kids with an iron bar?
Of course, F##k The Tories, Jon Snow, saw a woman getting her head smashed into on a car bonnet, and not only cycled away as fast as he could, he didn't even call the police.
Indy front page focusing on Corbyn's tax raid, not his "investment programme". Somewhat surprising?
That's a terrrrrible front page for Corbyn from the Independent. Looks like even lefty organs (and their owners) are waking up to what the Corbyn programme would mean for them personally - "£83 Billion Pound Tax Raid" looks like something the Sun might lead with!
Remain supporters seem to think they can get all the Remain voters to vote tactically in strong remain seats but at the same time think Tories won't clean up in strong Leave seats.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
I've just had a small punt on the Tories taking Don Valley (I was surprised they were as far out as 7/4). I felt bad for Caroline Flint as I did it but sometimes you just have to do the wrong thing!
I think Flint will suffer the same fate as Onn in Great Grimsby. Not as Brexity as her opponent, too brexity for her party supporters..
I would bet against all of the Lab MPs who backed BoZos Deal.
Con gain Wigan, Leigh, Rotherham, Poplar, Hartlepool, Barnsley C, Barnsley E, South Shields, Easington ?
Indy front page focusing on Corbyn's tax raid, not his "investment programme". Somewhat surprising?
That's a terrrrrible front page for Corbyn from the Independent. Looks like even lefty organs (and their owners) are waking up to what the Corbyn programme would mean for them personally - "£83 Billion Pound Tax Raid" looks like something the Sun might lead with!
Well they are right in the firing line for a big chunk of that tax raid.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
You may turn out to be correct. That's why I'm still afraid of 2017 Mk.2, and probably will be, to a greater or lesser degree, until election night.
On the other hand, maybe more of these Labour voters really are prepared to back Boris Johnson (who, lest we forget, won the London mayoralty twice) when they wouldn't vote for Theresa May? Or, perhaps, some of the Labour Remainers will be so disgusted with Corbyn's lukewarm attitude to the EU that they defect to the Lib Dems instead? Or some of the Labour Leavers might, equally, be so disgusted that they defect to the Brexit Party? And Labourites who don't think much to the current leadership, but can't bear to vote for anyone else, might simply stay at home?
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
I think he needs to turn his computer off and on again....no way the Tories are getting ~400 seats with Labour only on 150ish.
Tories ~400 seats seems more plausible than Tories winning the North East!
Comments
Every day there isn't a decisive move, or even a meaningful incremental one, towards Labour is another dangerous day crossed off for the country.
The sh*t.
It would be nice to think that Grimsby would drop comfortably into the blue column, because a result like that would be expected only if Labour were to lose the GE as a whole rather badly. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Le Mans 66 doesn't have the same attraction as 'Ford vs Ferrari' to Americans.
BAFTA films are just starting to come through. I'll let you know if I see anything a bit special.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
Edit - not the most flattering of photos either. Looks like he’s lost his chin.
Would anybody like to help me by spoiling my ballot at the election?
You don't have to come on here shouting the odds but go for it if that's your thing. We need a few more lefties on here if only as a social sciences case study.
But you do need to make sense. So far the evidence is sparse that you can manage this.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1197636202922496004/photo/1
Picture chosen carefully.
Whoever loses (and the Tories not getting a majority is losing imo) is going to face an existential crisis.
Serious question. Is it more ruinous to economy to announce spending based on tax increases and borrowing this week, or the tax cuts and borrowing announced by Tories next week?
Always interested to hear where you think value is - what you think will happen is more interesting than what you want to happen (though that is interesting too, of course).
Re: Grimsby - I never know whether a little knowledge is better or worse than no knowledge at all. Last time around gains for the Cons in Mansfield and for Labour in Kensington* seemed absolutely inconceivable, unless you were just looking at the stats without knowing the history.
*I have recently looked up this seat in my 1994 Almanac of British Politics, which opined that if ever the Conservatives were reduced to just one seat in the country, this would be it, so rock solidly Conservative was it. Fascinating how things change.
Basically his model accounts for regional and E.U vote swings whereas others do not.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
Besides, thinking of the recent polling evidence, it would appear that (a) the overall Conservative vote share hasn't fallen relative to 2017, it's the same; and (b) that Great Grimsby effort by Survation suggested that the Conservative vote may not even have to go up by any significant degree in the Northern key marginals. The Tory share in that survey hadn't changed much from 2017, either. Virtually the entire change from last time was down to a net flow of voters from Labour to the Brexit Party.
Bottom line is, there probably will be a lot of voter churn in this election, but we're not going to know how this will affect the composition of the Commons until we get the actual results.
I would bet against all of the Lab MPs who backed BoZos Deal.
I don't think the Corbynistas should start competing on who said what 16 years ago or more.
Could unearth some surprises about their man
Of course, F##k The Tories, Jon Snow, saw a woman getting her head smashed into on a car bonnet, and not only cycled away as fast as he could, he didn't even call the police.
That's a terrrrrible front page for Corbyn from the Independent.
Looks like even lefty organs (and their owners) are waking up to what the Corbyn programme would mean for them personally - "£83 Billion Pound Tax Raid" looks like something the Sun might lead with!
You do not get one without the other.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
On the other hand, maybe more of these Labour voters really are prepared to back Boris Johnson (who, lest we forget, won the London mayoralty twice) when they wouldn't vote for Theresa May? Or, perhaps, some of the Labour Remainers will be so disgusted with Corbyn's lukewarm attitude to the EU that they defect to the Lib Dems instead? Or some of the Labour Leavers might, equally, be so disgusted that they defect to the Brexit Party? And Labourites who don't think much to the current leadership, but can't bear to vote for anyone else, might simply stay at home?
We just don't know, do we?
I front page. Has 3 weeks to make up 10 % point deficit.
https://twitter.com/TimesCorbyn/status/1196008929647616000