It's amazing how many people on this site describe anecdotes about 'the North' as if they have gone beyond the wall and met some wildlings.
For those who like to think this way. Imagine an alternative universe where people on here routinely make sweeping statements about 'the South' voting Tory. See how ludicrous that is?
Please can you stop it, as it reveals an almost childlike view of the country.
Labour's London voteshare of 39% is now higher than the 32% voteshare it has in the Northeast, the 30% Labour votershare in the Northwest and the 29% Labour voteshare in Yorkshire and Humber.
Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn
On a parochial point, one interesting thing about that Canadian site is to be reminded of how much of Greater Manchester voted Leave. The way Andy Burnham talks about it you would have thought that Greater Manchester was firmly Remain - which it was, within three miles of Didsbury, Chorlton and Altrincham. Outside that, much less so. GM clearly did not vote Remain.
The Leave lead in Wigan was greater than the Remain lead in Manchester.
Guess whether it was Manchester or Wigan than the TV results programs were obsessed with.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
I am sure the brexit pull out is a fools gold, and cunning trick from Farage to divert blame in anticipated hung parliament. It’s scew4d the polling to show huge Tory lead. He’s pulled out the wrong seats. Despite being different places on political spectrum and poles of brexit, in voters minds BREX and Libdem are exactly the same as protest vote parties. Meanwhile in a lot of seats Tories need to win there are two Tory candidates.
I do wonder if - as I said - that the Tory lead is overstated such that it takes far too much of the pro-Tory vote which they had already, meaning votes just pile up in safe seats.
There are a lot of Tory marginals that Labour created in the last election - and I do wonder if we might not see some surprises.
We had all this Tory’s to romp in labour heartlands because they are brexit heartlands two years ago. What is different now? May was actually a more convincing campaigner that what we have had from Boris so far, and she seemed more credible and trustworthy as a prime minister.
Labour leavers will comfortably vote brexit party, and in 2016 for radical change, they have to flip lab voters to tory in huge numbers to deliver a working Tory majority if Tories go backwards in Scotland and the south. It sounds a risky strategy regardless what polls currently say.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
Do you know that the North is a large and varied place ?
Yes I do, which is why I said it was only a hunch. You don't have to agree with it - but I'm only posting my opinion.
I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing merely pointing out that anecdotal experience of one part of such a large and varied area is not necessarily a good predictor of other parts of the area.
No it isn't - but what I said was true in that in 2017 it was widely predicted the North would vote Tory, as would Wales. And apart from in a few small examples, it stayed very tribal and stuck with Labour.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South. Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields.
I only gave my view based on what happened in 2017 and what my experience was, I didn't mean it in anything other than in kind. I hope you'll accept my apology for any offence I did cause.
I would be interested to understand why you think the Tories will poll only 37%. Does this mean the Brexit Party will be polling 10% (ie 20% in their seats), or do you think millions of leave voters will either not bother to vote or will turn out in reasonable numbers for Labours 2nd ref policy?
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
I am sure the brexit pull out is a fools gold, and cunning trick from Farage to divert blame in anticipated hung parliament. It’s scew4d the polling to show huge Tory lead. He’s pulled out the wrong seats. Despite being different places on political spectrum and poles of brexit, in voters minds BREX and Libdem are exactly the same as protest vote parties. Meanwhile in a lot of seats Tories need to win there are two Tory candidates.
I do wonder if - as I said - that the Tory lead is overstated such that it takes far too much of the pro-Tory vote which they had already, meaning votes just pile up in safe seats.
There are a lot of Tory marginals that Labour created in the last election - and I do wonder if we might not see some surprises.
We had all this Tory’s to romp in labour heartlands because they are brexit heartlands two years ago. What is different now? May was actually a more convincing campaigner that what we have had from Boris so far, and she seemed more credible and trustworthy as a prime minister.
Labour leavers will comfortably vote brexit party, and in 2016 for radical change, they have to flip lab voters to tory in huge numbers to deliver a working Tory majority if Tories go backwards in Scotland and the south. It sounds a risky strategy regardless what polls currently say.
Labour is losing enough voters to the Brexit Party in the North and Wales and Midlands and the LDs in the South and London to enable the Tories to win a majority even if their vote stands still
Following on from the brief discussion last night regarding Barnsley. Someone pointed out that it is polling well for the Brexit Party, which doesn’t surprise me one little bit, considering the referendum result here.
Anyway, I was going to reply to say that I had been surprised not to have received anything from them, but today I received my first ever (as far as I can recall) political advert. It was from the Brexit Party.
They weren’t trying to convince me to vote for them. That seems to have been taken for granted, They have totally skipped that bit, and want me to deliver leaflets for them.
A small Brexit Party national vote share, concentrated in those Northern Labour key marginals with lots and lots of Leave voters, could bail Labour out. Then again, it could also result in a mass ejection of sitting Labour MPs all over the place, outside of more Remainian seats in the urban cores or those with very high percentages of BAME voters.
It all, of course, comes down to the question of where that Brexit Party vote comes from: what proportion of it consists of 2017 Con voters, 2017 Lab voters, 2017 voters for other parties, and 2017 non-voters?
Where the Brexit vote comes from is a very interesting question, especially around here.
The absence of the Lim Dems has left a space for a third party, and that has been filled, at least over the last 10 years or so, by a variety. The Barnsley Independent Group, UKIP and Brexit. The BNP have also been involved in that time.
Is it the same group that are supporting that third group, or is it all a flux? Who knows, and it’s probably a mixture. 10 years ago when I was slightly active in local politics, I got the impression that Labour were quite weakly supported, and Blair/Brown were certainly not popular (although they obviously still won easily). At the time I would have imagined that a Corbyn type would have been popular, but I don’t sense that now.
I’m sad to say that, from my observations, the Brexit support seems to come from the particularly racist sentiment which I see so often here. The fact that this comes from what you would mainly expect to be naturally Labour supporting people is not what I would have expected when I moved here.
Very important news for Brexit, as King Arthur weighs in, from his candidacy in Salisbury:
King Athur Pendragon: Our political classes have been paralysed, whilst the rest of the world has passed by us. I might not know what works, but I know what does not.
Don’t ram Boris’ deal through with little or no scrutiny just to get it over the line as the Tories would. Don’t pretend the referendum didn’t happen as the Lib Dems would. Don’t subject us to Groundhog Day and start all over again as Labour would.
And don’t leave without a deal as the Brexit Party would!
I voted remain, but like most people who accept the will of the people, I just want to get it over with,and would back any deal that works for us and our European neighbours
Usual bollocks - top 5% of earners are 'the middle classes'.
i'm middle class on just over the median salary - my married persons allowance would disappear, my son's bursary reduced private school fees would attract VAT.
Comments
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1197650373365960704
Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
Guess whether it was Manchester or Wigan than the TV results programs were obsessed with.
Interesting.
NEW THREAD
Labour leavers will comfortably vote brexit party, and in 2016 for radical change, they have to flip lab voters to tory in huge numbers to deliver a working Tory majority if Tories go backwards in Scotland and the south. It sounds a risky strategy regardless what polls currently say.
http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg
The absence of the Lim Dems has left a space for a third party, and that has been filled, at least over the last 10 years or so, by a variety. The Barnsley Independent Group, UKIP and Brexit. The BNP have also been involved in that time.
Is it the same group that are supporting that third group, or is it all a flux? Who knows, and it’s probably a mixture. 10 years ago when I was slightly active in local politics, I got the impression that Labour were quite weakly supported, and Blair/Brown were certainly not popular (although they obviously still won easily). At the time I would have imagined that a Corbyn type would have been popular, but I don’t sense that now.
I’m sad to say that, from my observations, the Brexit support seems to come from the particularly racist sentiment which I see so often here. The fact that this comes from what you would mainly expect to be naturally Labour supporting people is not what I would have expected when I moved here.
King Athur Pendragon: Our political classes have been paralysed, whilst the rest of the world has passed by us. I might not know what works, but I know what does not.
Don’t ram Boris’ deal through with little or no scrutiny just to get it over the line as the Tories would. Don’t pretend the referendum didn’t happen as the Lib Dems would. Don’t subject us to Groundhog Day and start all over again as Labour would.
And don’t leave without a deal as the Brexit Party would!
I voted remain, but like most people who accept the will of the people, I just want to get it over with,and would back any deal that works for us and our European neighbours
https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/18049039.general-election-2019-meet-candidates-salisbury/