It's make or break for Labour really. If the manifesto doesn't move the dial, well nothing is going to - and frankly I'll be very sad about that.
You hid your labour leanings so well ......
My gut feeling is if it moves the dial it will not be in the direction you want.
Still, at least you given up on the "closing the gap" message that you were peddling
I've enjoyed CorrectHorseBattery's perspective. Partisan yes but not a shill.
I'm actually surprised by how badly Labour's promises seem to be going down. I'd have assumed "free stuff" would be a vote winner, at least with the pooerst in society and a few of the squeezed middle. But no Labour bounce so far.
It's often said that 2017 was fought on many issues with Brexit being one of many, however it does seem as if 2019 is the "get Brexit done" election we were promised. Labour can't compete.
I can't help but wonder if Labour have shot themselves in the foot by promising far too many things. If they'd concentrated on, say, three key policies they could have at least built a coalition around them.
For example - 1. End student debt. Everyone under 40 votes for them. 2. Build 1m new council houses. Tells the working class they are on their side. 3. Legalise tax and regulate all drugs. Promise fall in crime, increased tax revenues directly increases NHS funding.
At the moment Labour's messaging isn't clear and that allows the Tories room to repeat their much simpler, more memorable message. More labour = More tax.
Thanks for your feedback.
Regarding this being the Brexit election, there are signs it isn't, e.g. the NHS leading the IPSOS poll. That should be Labour's ground - but we will see.
Hope you stick around, I enjoy reading you.
I wonder if it's "the Brexit election" in places like Grimsby as discussed in the previous thread. I can't see any other explanation for polling like that. Even if concerns like the NHS are more important elsewhere.
Another explanation is that the poll was only 401 respondents, and probably not well stratified. Of those 401 people some answered don't know. And... as with all polls we never get to find out any of the majority who don't answer the phone or hang up as soon as they find out its a nuisance call.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
You bought Con at 232? Should that be 332? Or was this an amazing bet some time ago? Always interested to hear where you think value is - what you think will happen is more interesting than what you want to happen (though that is interesting too, of course). Re: Grimsby - I never know whether a little knowledge is better or worse than no knowledge at all. Last time around gains for the Cons in Mansfield and for Labour in Kensington* seemed absolutely inconceivable, unless you were just looking at the stats without knowing the history.
*I have recently looked up this seat in my 1994 Almanac of British Politics, which opined that if ever the Conservatives were reduced to just one seat in the country, this would be it, so rock solidly Conservative was it. Fascinating how things change.
Cultural change. Most upper middle class London types in posh areas are now left wing rather than right.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
Lovely cars but the two things I picked up from it was the cars were apparently made in England and the brakes were shit.
If Morris Dancer is anywhere....go to see 'Le Mans 1966'. an excellent film. Brilliant performance by Christian Bale and a good one by Matt Damon. I say that as someone who isn't a particular fan of motor racing
Looking forward to it. Will go with the Good Lady at the weekend.
BAFTA films are just starting to come through. I'll let you know if I see anything a bit special.
Thanks. Though The Irishman has a lot going for it it's short of a compelling story. It's no 'Godfather' and at least 45 mins too long. You'll like Le Mans and Bale for once plays an Englishman (albeit living in the US)
I know The Irishman took up a lot of Sandy Powell's time - no doubt another Oscar nod for costume for her.
Remain supporters seem to think they can get all the Remain voters to vote tactically in strong remain seats but at the same time think Tories won't clean up in strong Leave seats.
You do not get one without the other.
It would certainly be peculiar if centre-right, soft Remain, Lib Dem-leaning voters were willing to lend their support en masse to the Marxist Friends of Sinn Fein in all those Con/Lab marginals.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
I've just had a small punt on the Tories taking Don Valley (I was surprised they were as far out as 7/4). I felt bad for Caroline Flint as I did it but sometimes you just have to do the wrong thing!
I think Flint will suffer the same fate as Onn in Great Grimsby. Not as Brexity as her opponent, too brexity for her party supporters..
I would bet against all of the Lab MPs who backed BoZos Deal.
Con gain Wigan, Leigh, Rotherham, Poplar, Hartlepool, Barnsley C, Barnsley E, South Shields, Easington ?
Not all of them, but they will have bigger than national swings against Lab.
It's make or break for Labour really. If the manifesto doesn't move the dial, well nothing is going to - and frankly I'll be very sad about that.
You hid your labour leanings so well ......
My gut feeling is if it moves the dial it will not be in the direction you want.
Still, at least you given up on the "closing the gap" message that you were peddling
I've enjoyed CorrectHorseBattery's perspective. Partisan yes but not a shill.
I'm actually surprised by how badly Labour's promises seem to be going down. I'd have assumed "free stuff" would be a vote winner, at least with the pooerst in society and a few of the squeezed middle. But no Labour bounce so far.
It's often said that 2017 was fought on many issues with Brexit being one of many, however it does seem as if 2019 is the "get Brexit done" election we were promised. Labour can't compete.
I can't help but wonder if Labour have shot themselves in the foot by promising far too many things. If they'd concentrated on, say, three key policies they could have at least built a coalition around them.
For example - 1. End student debt. Everyone under 40 votes for them. 2. Build 1m new council houses. Tells the working class they are on their side. 3. Legalise tax and regulate all drugs. Promise fall in crime, increased tax revenues directly increases NHS funding.
At the moment Labour's messaging isn't clear and that allows the Tories room to repeat their much simpler, more memorable message. More labour = More tax.
Thanks for your feedback.
Regarding this being the Brexit election, there are signs it isn't, e.g. the NHS leading the IPSOS poll. That should be Labour's ground - but we will see.
Hope you stick around, I enjoy reading you.
I wonder if it's "the Brexit election" in places like Grimsby as discussed in the previous thread. I can't see any other explanation for polling like that. Even if concerns like the NHS are more important elsewhere.
Another explanation is that the poll was only 401 respondents, and probably not well stratified. Of those 401 people some answered don't know. And... as with all polls we never get to find out any of the majority who don't answer the phone or hang up as soon as they find out its a nuisance call.
Maybe this size of polling suffers from the same mistake of all those TV vox pops “we will report from a marginal to see how it went down” and before it comes on you already know it’s some people who run a shop or small business and some old people in a street who are 50+.
IFS: Labour Proposing the Most Punitive Corporate Tax System in the World https://t.co/oRoYcX0gCJ
The prime minister wants to “fuck business “.
That is such a weak reaponse. The question is 'do you agree with the IFS'
It is not weak, the actual prime minister actually said that. You’re mad enough to vote for him.
I am voting for the party best placed to consign Corbyn to the dustbin of history
Nothing more, nothing less, and trust many millions will do the same
Millions will vote against Boris, a man proven uniquely to act unlawfully in high office. A man that those who know him best say he is utterly unfit to be PM.
It is a shame you will be voting for that.
I really do not care about your attempt at moral judgment.
I will not support a marxist who is complicit in anti semitism and supports the enemies of our Country
Your moral high horse became dog food years ago. By all means vote ‘Britain Trump’, but don’t kid yourself that is a patriotic act.
Who said anything about it being patriotic.
It is the only means I have of stopping the disaster that would be Corbyn and his marxist cabal
Indy front page focusing on Corbyn's tax raid, not his "investment programme". Somewhat surprising?
That's a terrrrrible front page for Corbyn from the Independent. Looks like even lefty organs (and their owners) are waking up to what the Corbyn programme would mean for them personally - "£83 Billion Pound Tax Raid" looks like something the Sun might lead with!
If I was a Labour MP with a majority of less than 8k I am not sure if I would be spending as much time on the latest polling as the situations vacant column of my local rag.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
You bought Con at 232? Should that be 332? Or was this an amazing bet some time ago? Always interested to hear where you think value is - what you think will happen is more interesting than what you want to happen (though that is interesting too, of course). Re: Grimsby - I never know whether a little knowledge is better or worse than no knowledge at all. Last time around gains for the Cons in Mansfield and for Labour in Kensington* seemed absolutely inconceivable, unless you were just looking at the stats without knowing the history.
*I have recently looked up this seat in my 1994 Almanac of British Politics, which opined that if ever the Conservatives were reduced to just one seat in the country, this would be it, so rock solidly Conservative was it. Fascinating how things change.
Cultural change. Most upper middle class London types in posh areas are now left wing rather than right.
Yeah, I call it the "Hampsteadification" of London. I grew up in NW3, and even then I always felt there was something very peculiar about the leisured rich in their large houses voting socialist without fail and without doubt...
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
You may turn out to be correct. That's why I'm still afraid of 2017 Mk.2, and probably will be, to a greater or lesser degree, until election night.
On the other hand, maybe more of these Labour voters really are prepared to back Boris Johnson (who, lest we forget, won the London mayoralty twice) when they wouldn't vote for Theresa May? Or, perhaps, some of the Labour Remainers will be so disgusted with Corbyn's lukewarm attitude to the EU that they defect to the Lib Dems instead? Or some of the Labour Leavers might, equally, be so disgusted that they defect to the Brexit Party? And Labourites who don't think much to the current leadership, but can't bear to vote for anyone else, might simply stay at home?
Translation - Guardian journos think oh f##k this is going to cost us a crap tonne of our money in higher taxes.
LBC had a phone-in with Russell-Moyle earlier and a hospital consultant phoned in grumbling that he and all his mates would have to pay more tax under Labour's £80,000 higher rate. I had to smile.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
410 seats? I'll take it.
Looks good - but I have a slight memory of some other Canadian pollsters....
Well this is interesting - to get an outsider's perspective. A few oddities in there, but some which feel bang on to me - such as Labour holding Wirral West despite losing some with much bigger majorities. Also has Lab to hold Kensington, and to gain Finchley and Golders Green and Cities of London and Westminster, though I don't think that takes account of local circumstances.
Some of the things which look odd include: Labour doing very badly in Bristol - losing Bristol East and coming within a whisker in Bristol South - surely not? Tories doing very well indeed in S. Wales, gaining Caerphilly, Torfaen, Islwyn, Swansea East and both Newports - again, surely not? Some unlikely Tory gains in the North - Sheffield SE, Hemsworth, Normanton Pontefract Castleford, Hull East, Hull West Tories gaining both Lutons
Still, interesting, and very different to Baxter and Flavible.
Just spotted that Labour will abolish the marriage tax allowance. Can anyone explain how that will not affect any of the 95% that apparently won't be affected by Labour's tax rises.
Great point.
The marriage tax allowance is only claimable where there IS NOT a higher rate taxpayer in the household so it's nothing to do with those earning £50k or more (let alone the £80k), it's only for basic rate taxpayers where there's a spouse not using up his/her full £12,500.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
Do you know that the North is a large and varied place ?
It's make or break for Labour really. If the manifesto doesn't move the dial, well nothing is going to - and frankly I'll be very sad about that.
You hid your labour leanings so well ......
My gut feeling is if it moves the dial it will not be in the direction you want.
Still, at least you given up on the "closing the gap" message that you were peddling
I've enjoyed CorrectHorseBattery's perspective. Partisan yes but not a shill.
I'm actually surprised by how badly Labour's promises seem to be going down. I'd have assumed "free stuff" would be a vote winner, at least with the pooerst in society and a few of the squeezed middle. But no Labour bounce so far.
It's often said that 2017 was fought on many issues with Brexit being one of many, however it does seem as if 2019 is the "get Brexit done" election we were promised. Labour can't compete.
I can't help but wonder if Labour have shot themselves in the foot by promising far too many things. If they'd concentrated on, say, three key policies they could have at least built a coalition around them.
For example - 1. End student debt. Everyone under 40 votes for them. 2. Build 1m new council houses. Tells the working class they are on their side. 3. Legalise tax and regulate all drugs. Promise fall in crime, increased tax revenues directly increases NHS funding.
At the moment Labour's messaging isn't clear and that allows the Tories room to repeat their much simpler, more memorable message. More labour = More tax.
Thanks for your feedback.
Regarding this being the Brexit election, there are signs it isn't, e.g. the NHS leading the IPSOS poll. That should be Labour's ground - but we will see.
Hope you stick around, I enjoy reading you.
I wonder if it's "the Brexit election" in places like Grimsby as discussed in the previous thread. I can't see any other explanation for polling like that. Even if concerns like the NHS are more important elsewhere.
Another explanation is that the poll was only 401 respondents, and probably not well stratified. Of those 401 people some answered don't know. And... as with all polls we never get to find out any of the majority who don't answer the phone or hang up as soon as they find out its a nuisance call.
Maybe this size of polling suffers from the same mistake of all those TV vox pops “we will report from a marginal to see how it went down” and before it comes on you already know it’s some people who run a shop or small business and some old people in a street who are 50+.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
Labour hasn't fallen off a cliff, they've just stagnated at around 30%.
The polling gap average is what 11% or something, it's up by I think 1% on average.
It's still lower than in 2017 - and there's not far for it to fall, for things to go south quickly. If I were Johnson, I wouldn't have ministers saying the Government isn't to blame for poverty, or skipping debates. These seem like silly risks, if I was advising him anyway.
The most crucial thing to watch in the polls IMHO, is where the don't knows go to and how they change over the next week or so. And also how the Labour Remainers and Leavers change.
The polls pretty much agree on the strength of the Tory vote (although I don't see them getting above 40% myself - that's just a hunch) but they're more divided on the strength of the Labour vote. The polls are I think more split than last time (might be wrong).
If Labour can successfully swallow the Remain vote - and I think they can - and increase the under 30s choosing "might vote" in these polls, things will narrow quickly.
I'll lookout for Survation first, only because they seemed to show the changes quickest last time.
If I was to make a guess, I think the final result will be something like 37/35.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
Do you know that the North is a large and varied place ?
Yes I do, which is why I said it was only a hunch. You don't have to agree with it - but I'm only posting my opinion.
Happier, maybe - but the front page still says his plans are "simply not credible"!
Even the Guardian sounds scared.
They should be. Corbyn has just handed Boris the keys to No.10. We now have 5 years of the mind-changer-in-chief throwing yesterday's allies under today's bus to make tomorrow's headlines.
With a bit of luck, Labour will have a "Night of the long knives" session and send Momentum back to its dark, murky corner to fester for another 30 years.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
I am sure the brexit pull out is a fools gold, and cunning trick from Farage to divert blame in anticipated hung parliament. It’s scew4d the polling to show huge Tory lead. He’s pulled out the wrong seats. Despite being different places on political spectrum and poles of brexit, in voters minds BREX and Libdem are exactly the same as protest vote parties. Meanwhile in a lot of seats Tories need to win there are two Tory candidates.
Following on from the brief discussion last night regarding Barnsley. Someone pointed out that it is polling well for the Brexit Party, which doesn’t surprise me one little bit, considering the referendum result here.
Anyway, I was going to reply to say that I had been surprised not to have received anything from them, but today I received my first ever (as far as I can recall) political advert. It was from the Brexit Party.
They weren’t trying to convince me to vote for them. That seems to have been taken for granted, They have totally skipped that bit, and want me to deliver leaflets for them.
Translation - Guardian journos think oh f##k this is going to cost us a crap tonne of our money in higher taxes.
LBC had a phone-in with Russell-Moyle earlier and a hospital consultant phoned in grumbling that he and all his mates would have to pay more tax under Labour's £80,000 higher rate. I had to smile.
Indeed, there's quite a lot in the apparently virtuous public sector getting over £80K/year.
Is this whataboutism relevant to the point I made - how about commenting on that?
It's very relevant - you quoted a old bit of newspaper to imply that Boris was a racist, I quoted a old bit of newspaper to imply that Corbyn was a racist. It's tedious, but even more tedious would have been to let the jab go unanswered.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
I am sure the brexit pull out is a fools gold, and cunning trick from Farage to divert blame in anticipated hung parliament. It’s scew4d the polling to show huge Tory lead. He’s pulled out the wrong seats. Despite being different places on political spectrum and poles of brexit, in voters minds BREX and Libdem are exactly the same as protest vote parties. Meanwhile in a lot of seats Tories need to win there are two Tory candidates.
I do wonder if - as I said - that the Tory lead is overstated such that it takes far too much of the pro-Tory vote which they had already, meaning votes just pile up in safe seats.
There are a lot of Tory marginals that Labour created in the last election - and I do wonder if we might not see some surprises.
Translation - Guardian journos think oh f##k this is going to cost us a crap tonne of our money in higher taxes.
LBC had a phone-in with Russell-Moyle earlier and a hospital consultant phoned in grumbling that he and all his mates would have to pay more tax under Labour's £80,000 higher rate. I had to smile.
Indeed, there's quite a lot in the apparently virtuous public sector getting over £80K/year.
And, of course, under Labour they'll get another 5% on top.
(I should note for full transparency that I work in the public sector, but 5% won't buy my vote.)
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
410 seats? I'll take it.
Looks good - but I have a slight memory of some other Canadian pollsters....
Well this is interesting - to get an outsider's perspective. A few oddities in there, but some which feel bang on to me - such as Labour holding Wirral West despite losing some with much bigger majorities. Also has Lab to hold Kensington, and to gain Finchley and Golders Green and Cities of London and Westminster, though I don't think that takes account of local circumstances.
Some of the things which look odd include: Labour doing very badly in Bristol - losing Bristol East and coming within a whisker in Bristol South - surely not? Tories doing very well indeed in S. Wales, gaining Caerphilly, Torfaen, Islwyn, Swansea East and both Newports - again, surely not? Some unlikely Tory gains in the North - Sheffield SE, Hemsworth, Normanton Pontefract Castleford, Hull East, Hull West Tories gaining both Lutons
Still, interesting, and very different to Baxter and Flavible.
And Ave_It might be interested to note that on the Canadian model the Conservatives are within a whiskery whisker in Ogmore.
IFS: Labour Proposing the Most Punitive Corporate Tax System in the World https://t.co/oRoYcX0gCJ
The prime minister wants to “fuck business “.
That is such a weak reaponse. The question is 'do you agree with the IFS'
It is not weak, the actual prime minister actually said that. You’re mad enough to vote for him.
I am voting for the party best placed to consign Corbyn to the dustbin of history
Nothing more, nothing less, and trust many millions will do the same
Millions will vote against Boris, a man proven uniquely to act unlawfully in high office. A man that those who know him best say he is utterly unfit to be PM.
It is a shame you will be voting for that.
I really do not care about your attempt at moral judgment.
I will not support a marxist who is complicit in anti semitism and supports the enemies of our Country
Your moral high horse became dog food years ago. By all means vote ‘Britain Trump’, but don’t kid yourself that is a patriotic act.
Who said anything about it being patriotic.
It is the only means I have of stopping the disaster that would be Corbyn and his marxist cabal
Each time they attack the Marxist, each time they take us further into the abyss. The last four years have been abysmal. I want change,
Disappointing Jonathan.
I thought you were better than supporting Corbyn.
Don't do something that's beneath you.
I voted Yvette Cooper and Owen Smith. :-) At this election, I will vote for the party best placed to deny Boris a majority. The anti-Tory vote has to remember how to organise itself.
Usual bollocks - top 5% of earners are 'the middle classes'.
I agree with you there, it is something that has long annoyed me. What the press tend to call the "middle class" is usually the upper quintile of incomes, or higher. I distorts political debate to use such misleading terms. We would be far better off talking about the effect of policies on families with a median income.
Translation - Guardian journos think oh f##k this is going to cost us a crap tonne of our money in higher taxes.
LBC had a phone-in with Russell-Moyle earlier and a hospital consultant phoned in grumbling that he and all his mates would have to pay more tax under Labour's £80,000 higher rate. I had to smile.
Probably not paying more tax, unless Labour keep the Tories pension allowance taper, which has a 100% or more marginal rate.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
Labour hasn't fallen off a cliff, they've just stagnated at around 30%.
The polling gap average is what 11% or something, it's up by I think 1% on average.
It's still lower than in 2017 - and there's not far for it to fall, for things to go south quickly. If I were Johnson, I wouldn't have ministers saying the Government isn't to blame for poverty, or skipping debates. These seem like silly risks, if I was advising him anyway.
The most crucial thing to watch in the polls IMHO, is where the don't knows go to and how they change over the next week or so. And also how the Labour Remainers and Leavers change.
The polls pretty much agree on the strength of the Tory vote (although I don't see them getting above 40% myself - that's just a hunch) but they're more divided on the strength of the Labour vote. The polls are I think more split than last time (might be wrong).
If Labour can successfully swallow the Remain vote - and I think they can - and increase the under 30s choosing "might vote" in these polls, things will narrow quickly.
I'll lookout for Survation first, only because they seemed to show the changes quickest last time.
If I was to make a guess, I think the final result will be something like 37/35.
Are you a farmer? I've never seen so much straw harvested in one post before.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
Labour hasn't fallen off a cliff, they've just stagnated at around 30%.
The polling gap average is what 11% or something, it's up by I think 1% on average.
It's still lower than in 2017 - and there's not far for it to fall, for things to go south quickly. If I were Johnson, I wouldn't have ministers saying the Government isn't to blame for poverty, or skipping debates. These seem like silly risks, if I was advising him anyway.
The most crucial thing to watch in the polls IMHO, is where the don't knows go to and how they change over the next week or so. And also how the Labour Remainers and Leavers change.
The polls pretty much agree on the strength of the Tory vote (although I don't see them getting above 40% myself - that's just a hunch) but they're more divided on the strength of the Labour vote. The polls are I think more split than last time (might be wrong).
If Labour can successfully swallow the Remain vote - and I think they can - and increase the under 30s choosing "might vote" in these polls, things will narrow quickly.
I'll lookout for Survation first, only because they seemed to show the changes quickest last time.
If I was to make a guess, I think the final result will be something like 37/35.
They have fallen off a cliff compared to what they achieved in 2017. More than 10% down.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
Do you know that the North is a large and varied place ?
Yes I do, which is why I said it was only a hunch. You don't have to agree with it - but I'm only posting my opinion.
I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing merely pointing out that anecdotal experience of one part of such a large and varied area is not necessarily a good predictor of other parts of the area.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
I think he needs to turn his computer off and on again....no way the Tories are getting ~400 seats with Labour only on 150ish.
Tories ~400 seats seems more plausible than Tories winning the North East!
It's not possible I think - the 15th NE seat (Of 29) is Newcastle Upon Tyne North, which wasn't even that leave iirc. Ordered seat 416 for the Tories, 147 for Labour. Their resilience even if they have the most appalling shocking night in the 100-200 seat range is remarkable.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
IFS: Labour Proposing the Most Punitive Corporate Tax System in the World https://t.co/oRoYcX0gCJ
The prime minister wants to “fuck business “.
That is such a weak reaponse. The question is 'do you agree with the IFS'
It is not weak, the actual prime minister actually said that. You’re mad enough to vote for him.
I am voting for the party best placed to consign Corbyn to the dustbin of history
Nothing more, nothing less, and trust many millions will do the same
Millions will vote against Boris, a man proven uniquely to act unlawfully in high office. A man that those who know him best say he is utterly unfit to be PM.
It is a shame you will be voting for that.
I really do not care about your attempt at moral judgment.
I will not support a marxist who is complicit in anti semitism and supports the enemies of our Country
Your moral high horse became dog food years ago. By all means vote ‘Britain Trump’, but don’t kid yourself that is a patriotic act.
Who said anything about it being patriotic.
It is the only means I have of stopping the disaster that would be Corbyn and his marxist cabal
Each time they attack the Marxist, each time they take us further into the abyss. The last four years have been abysmal. I want change,
Disappointing Jonathan.
I thought you were better than supporting Corbyn.
Don't do something that's beneath you.
I voted Yvette Cooper and Owen Smith. :-) At this election, I will vote for the party best placed to deny Boris a majority. The anti-Tory vote has to remember how to organise itself.
Funny.. i will vote to stop Corbyn winning.. i dont want to vote Tory but i will to stop Corbyn
Usual bollocks - top 5% of earners are 'the middle classes'.
I agree with you there, it is something that has long annoyed me. What the press tend to call the "middle class" is usually the upper quintile of incomes, or higher. I distorts political debate to use such misleading terms. We would be far better off talking about the effect of policies on families with a median income.
I remember a study done on what people think are average wages - it tends to be about what the individuals themselves are earning.
It looks like the hand holding the manifesto has been photoshopped in.
Actually it’s very fair from the telegraph. 83 is figure bbc and itn using for the tax take.
The conservatives need to be careful next week, now Labour have fired first.
So next week, tax cuts funded by borrowing, and you support that? Whilst it’s wanting to spend money raised through tax, wanting to redistribute the imbalance of wealth in the country that is most dangerous?
Tories should play it fiscally straight, ignore labour manifesto and focus on investment borrowing over tax cuts and avoid unconservative gimmicks and brexit dividends.
Following on from the brief discussion last night regarding Barnsley. Someone pointed out that it is polling well for the Brexit Party, which doesn’t surprise me one little bit, considering the referendum result here.
Anyway, I was going to reply to say that I had been surprised not to have received anything from them, but today I received my first ever (as far as I can recall) political advert. It was from the Brexit Party.
They weren’t trying to convince me to vote for them. That seems to have been taken for granted, They have totally skipped that bit, and want me to deliver leaflets for them.
A small Brexit Party national vote share, concentrated in those Northern Labour key marginals with lots and lots of Leave voters, could bail Labour out. Then again, it could also result in a mass ejection of sitting Labour MPs all over the place, outside of more Remainian seats in the urban cores or those with very high percentages of BAME voters.
It all, of course, comes down to the question of where that Brexit Party vote comes from: what proportion of it consists of 2017 Con voters, 2017 Lab voters, 2017 voters for other parties, and 2017 non-voters?
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
Do you know that the North is a large and varied place ?
Yes I do, which is why I said it was only a hunch. You don't have to agree with it - but I'm only posting my opinion.
I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing merely pointing out that anecdotal experience of one part of such a large and varied area is not necessarily a good predictor of other parts of the area.
No it isn't - but what I said was true in that in 2017 it was widely predicted the North would vote Tory, as would Wales. And apart from in a few small examples, it stayed very tribal and stuck with Labour.
I wonder if at some point people go "fuck it I don't care anymore"
About gigantic sums of money being taken out straight out of their pockets? The people most likely to say something like your quote in this campaign are centrist and right-leaning Remainers: "£83 billion quid? Fuck it, I'm voting Tory!"
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
Labour hasn't fallen off a cliff, they've just stagnated at around 30%.
The polling gap average is what 11% or something, it's up by I think 1% on average.
It's still lower than in 2017 - and there's not far for it to fall, for things to go south quickly. If I were Johnson, I wouldn't have ministers saying the Government isn't to blame for poverty, or skipping debates. These seem like silly risks, if I was advising him anyway.
The most crucial thing to watch in the polls IMHO, is where the don't knows go to and how they change over the next week or so. And also how the Labour Remainers and Leavers change.
The polls pretty much agree on the strength of the Tory vote (although I don't see them getting above 40% myself - that's just a hunch) but they're more divided on the strength of the Labour vote. The polls are I think more split than last time (might be wrong).
If Labour can successfully swallow the Remain vote - and I think they can - and increase the under 30s choosing "might vote" in these polls, things will narrow quickly.
I'll lookout for Survation first, only because they seemed to show the changes quickest last time.
If I was to make a guess, I think the final result will be something like 37/35.
They have fallen off a cliff compared to what they achieved in 2017. More than 10% down.
Who, Labour? They're down from the 40% they polled in 2017 yes - but they were not at 40% during this part in the campaign last time, either.
Indeed, many of the polls in the days before predicted similar leads to what we are seeing now. I'm not saying the polls are wrong or anything, I just think people are far too quickly going "it's a guaranteed landslide, it's just how big it is". And that arrogance is starting to show up in the Tory campaign.
IFS: Labour Proposing the Most Punitive Corporate Tax System in the World https://t.co/oRoYcX0gCJ
The prime minister wants to “fuck business “.
That is such a weak reaponse. The question is 'do you agree with the IFS'
It is not weak, the actual prime minister actually said that. You’re mad enough to vote for him.
I am voting for the party best placed to consign Corbyn to the dustbin of history
Nothing more, nothing less, and trust many millions will do the same
Millions will vote against Boris, a man proven uniquely to act unlawfully in high office. A man that those who know him best say he is utterly unfit to be PM.
It is a shame you will be voting for that.
I really do not care about your attempt at moral judgment.
I will not support a marxist who is complicit in anti semitism and supports the enemies of our Country
Your moral high horse became dog food years ago. By all means vote ‘Britain Trump’, but don’t kid yourself that is a patriotic act.
Who said anything about it being patriotic.
It is the only means I have of stopping the disaster that would be Corbyn and his marxist cabal
Each time they attack the Marxist, each time they take us further into the abyss. The last four years have been abysmal. I want change,
Disappointing Jonathan.
I thought you were better than supporting Corbyn.
Don't do something that's beneath you.
I voted Yvette Cooper and Owen Smith. :-) At this election, I will vote for the party best placed to deny Boris a majority. The anti-Tory vote has to remember how to organise itself.
Funny.. i will vote to stop Corbyn winning.. i dont want to vote Tory but i will to stop Corbyn
The last four years have been terrible. We need a change. Boris has behaved abysmally and should not be rewarded with a majority.
It's amazing how many people on this site describe anecdotes about 'the North' as if they have gone beyond the wall and met some wildlings.
For those who like to think this way. Imagine an alternative universe where people on here routinely make sweeping statements about 'the South' voting Tory. See how ludicrous that is?
Please can you stop it, as it reveals an almost childlike view of the country.
Translation - Guardian journos think oh f##k this is going to cost us a crap tonne of our money in higher taxes.
LBC had a phone-in with Russell-Moyle earlier and a hospital consultant phoned in grumbling that he and all his mates would have to pay more tax under Labour's £80,000 higher rate. I had to smile.
Probably not paying more tax, unless Labour keep the Tories pension allowance taper, which has a 100% or more marginal rate.
Is it likely that Labour would get rid of it? They don’t seem that keen on anything which could be considered a tax loop hole. Perhaps it was mentioned in the manifesto: I must admit I’m relying on the summaries here.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
Labour hasn't fallen off a cliff, they've just stagnated at around 30%.
The polling gap average is what 11% or something, it's up by I think 1% on average.
It's still lower than in 2017 - and there's not far for it to fall, for things to go south quickly. If I were Johnson, I wouldn't have ministers saying the Government isn't to blame for poverty, or skipping debates. These seem like silly risks, if I was advising him anyway.
The most crucial thing to watch in the polls IMHO, is where the don't knows go to and how they change over the next week or so. And also how the Labour Remainers and Leavers change.
The polls pretty much agree on the strength of the Tory vote (although I don't see them getting above 40% myself - that's just a hunch) but they're more divided on the strength of the Labour vote. The polls are I think more split than last time (might be wrong).
If Labour can successfully swallow the Remain vote - and I think they can - and increase the under 30s choosing "might vote" in these polls, things will narrow quickly.
I'll lookout for Survation first, only because they seemed to show the changes quickest last time.
If I was to make a guess, I think the final result will be something like 37/35.
Are you a farmer? I've never seen so much straw harvested in one post before.
I'm just giving my opinion, there's no need to take the piss out of me. I would hope you'd respect me as I have always offered others - thank you kindly.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
Do you know that the North is a large and varied place ?
Yes I do, which is why I said it was only a hunch. You don't have to agree with it - but I'm only posting my opinion.
I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing merely pointing out that anecdotal experience of one part of such a large and varied area is not necessarily a good predictor of other parts of the area.
No it isn't - but what I said was true in that in 2017 it was widely predicted the North would vote Tory, as would Wales. And apart from in a few small examples, it stayed very tribal and stuck with Labour.
But that doesn't mean that 2019 will repeat 2017.
It seems, so far at least, that the Conservative campaign is better and Labour's is worse.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
I've just had a small punt on the Tories taking Don Valley (I was surprised they were as far out as 7/4). I felt bad for Caroline Flint as I did it but sometimes you just have to do the wrong thing!
I think Flint will suffer the same fate as Onn in Great Grimsby. Not as Brexity as her opponent, too brexity for her party supporters..
I would bet against all of the Lab MPs who backed BoZos Deal.
Con gain Wigan, Leigh, Rotherham, Poplar, Hartlepool, Barnsley C, Barnsley E, South Shields, Easington ?
Could most of that happen along with Labour gaining some seats in M.Keynes (both), Northampton, Swindon, Reading and Southampton Itchen? Or if the Lib.Dems gain votes n these places it'll block Labour gains, i.e. a party with a slogan of 'Bollocks to Brexit' makes Brexit more likely.
I am not so sure this time. The turkeys of Grimsby are oven ready and busting for a Christmas stuffing.
I just can't see it. We had this with May and they ended up sticking with Labour, I just think they're far too much of a tribal vote.
We must also not forget, that the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain - and those that voted to Leave, seem to rate Brexit as low down on their priority list.
We'll see if you are right in due course. In the meantime, the Grimsby poll suggests you might be indulging in a little straw clutching. Initial reaction to the manifesto suggests it's not a game changer. That £83 billion figure seems to be centre stage.
It's not straw clutching, it's just using my experience of anecdotal time spent in the North. They might hate Corbyn - but they hate the Tories a lot more.
They will know full well a vote for BXP will allow the Tories in. They're called Labour heartlands for a reason, there is heritage and a historical Labour vote there, that I just can't see going, whatever the polls say.
Regarding that Survation poll, although the fieldwork was a bit old, I'll concede I don't have much of objective data to run on. But I will say that constituency polls of that type haven't been particularly good in the past. MRP has been a lot more reliable.
Do you know that the North is a large and varied place ?
Yes I do, which is why I said it was only a hunch. You don't have to agree with it - but I'm only posting my opinion.
I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing merely pointing out that anecdotal experience of one part of such a large and varied area is not necessarily a good predictor of other parts of the area.
No it isn't - but what I said was true in that in 2017 it was widely predicted the North would vote Tory, as would Wales. And apart from in a few small examples, it stayed very tribal and stuck with Labour.
But that doesn't mean that 2019 will repeat 2017.
It seems, so far at least, that the Conservative campaign is better and Labour's is worse.
Labour's hasn't really got going yet, I think relatively at this point the manifesto had already launched.
I'm being quite consistent in this. If by next weekend Labour isn't moving forwards, they're in trouble. And anyone is free to hold me to that.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
It has Pidcock losing her seat by 1%.
Just rejoice at that news.....
Are you a Tory? You can’t be. You rather Pidcock lose than become next Labour leader.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
It was one of my big constituency wins that year. Con were the favourite then too.
Are you betting on that one again? Which are your favourite positions this time around?
I have only had a few constituency bets so far, but my best wins last time were on Tories in LD target seats and on Lab in Tory targets.
I haven't seen a lot of value so far, but my bets are a long way from my politics. I bought Con at 232 and sold Lab at 206 on Spreadex. I also got on LD 20-29 at good odds.
I don't think 13/8 on Lab in Great Grimsby is good value.
I've just had a small punt on the Tories taking Don Valley (I was surprised they were as far out as 7/4). I felt bad for Caroline Flint as I did it but sometimes you just have to do the wrong thing!
I think Flint will suffer the same fate as Onn in Great Grimsby. Not as Brexity as her opponent, too brexity for her party supporters..
I would bet against all of the Lab MPs who backed BoZos Deal.
Con gain Wigan, Leigh, Rotherham, Poplar, Hartlepool, Barnsley C, Barnsley E, South Shields, Easington ?
Could most of that happen along with Labour gaining some seats in M.Keynes (both), Northampton, Swindon, Reading and Southampton Itchen? Or if the Lib.Dems gain votes n these places it'll block Labour gains, i.e. a party with a slogan of 'Bollocks to Brexit' makes Brexit more likely.
It's amazing how many people on this site describe anecdotes about 'the North' as if they have gone beyond the wall and met some wildlings.
For those who like to think this way. Imagine an alternative universe where people on here routinely make sweeping statements about 'the South' voting Tory. See how ludicrous that is?
Please can you stop it, as it reveals an almost childlike view of the country.
It reminds me of that Mumsnet thread about some yummy mummy who had met a middle class northerner, but refused to countenance that such a person could be middle class, due to their frightful accent.
I only gave my view based on what happened in 2017 and what my experience was, I didn't mean it in anything other than in kind. I hope you'll accept my apology for any offence I did cause.
It's amazing how many people on this site describe anecdotes about 'the North' as if they have gone beyond the wall and met some wildlings.
For those who like to think this way. Imagine an alternative universe where people on here routinely make sweeping statements about 'the South' voting Tory. See how ludicrous that is?
Please can you stop it, as it reveals an almost childlike view of the country.
It reminds me of that Mumsnet thread about some yummy mummy who had met a middle class northerner, but refused to countenance that such a person could be middle class, due to their frightful accent.
On a parochial point, one interesting thing about that Canadian site is to be reminded of how much of Greater Manchester voted Leave. The way Andy Burnham talks about it you would have thought that Greater Manchester was firmly Remain - which it was, within three miles of Didsbury, Chorlton and Altrincham. Outside that, much less so. GM clearly did not vote Remain.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
I think he needs to turn his computer off and on again....no way the Tories are getting ~400 seats with Labour only on 150ish.
Tories ~400 seats seems more plausible than Tories winning the North East!
It's not possible I think - the 15th NE seat (Of 29) is Newcastle Upon Tyne North, which wasn't even that leave iirc. Ordered seat 416 for the Tories, 147 for Labour. Their resilience even if they have the most appalling shocking night in the 100-200 seat range is remarkable.
It's amazing how many people on this site describe anecdotes about 'the North' as if they have gone beyond the wall and met some wildlings.
For those who like to think this way. Imagine an alternative universe where people on here routinely make sweeping statements about 'the South' voting Tory. See how ludicrous that is?
Please can you stop it, as it reveals an almost childlike view of the country.
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
It has Pidcock losing her seat by 1%.
Just rejoice at that news.....
Are you a Tory? You can’t be. You rather Pidcock lose than become next Labour leader.
I would rather Labour became a party no longer in thrall to the Marxist wreckers.
Ideally, Labour again becomes a party that I do not wish to see in power - but neither do I dread that outcome.
I wonder if at some point people go "fuck it I don't care anymore"
They mention lavish spending on schools and hospitals in the article . Is that supposed to frighten people !
If they don't buy Labour's line that hardly anybody will have to pay more tax, then yes, it would frighten people.
Voters by and large approve of money being thrown at public services (especially Our Beloved NHS) but on the understanding that it is someone else's money. If voters think that they, personally, are going to end up being presented with a huge tax bill then (apart from the very poor ones, for whom benefits are a far greater concern than taxes) they'll run away from Labour, screaming as they go.
Btw the previous thread is a shocker. This is a seat that Labour did well in in 2017. It’s not even close.
If it’s accurate.
Oh sure. The constituency polling at the last election was dreadful and cost those that relied upon it a lot of money. But if it is accurate we are looking at a massacre.
Possibly. Has it occurred to you though that if the Tory vote has risen across the north and fallen overall that means they are leaking votes elsewhere- presumably the south of England?
Might easily be a lot of churn in seats at this election.
But it hasn’t fallen over all on the basis of much of the polling. The Tories are 43-44 which is a modest improvement. And Labour has fallen off a cliff.
Labour hasn't fallen off a cliff, they've just stagnated at around 30%.
The polling gap average is what 11% or something, it's up by I think 1% on average.
It's still lower than in 2017 - and there's not far for it to fall, for things to go south quickly. If I were Johnson, I wouldn't have ministers saying the Government isn't to blame for poverty, or skipping debates. These seem like silly risks, if I was advising him anyway.
The most crucial th
If I was to make a guess, I think the final result will be something like 37/35.
They have fallen off a cliff compared to what they achieved in 2017. More than 10% down.
Who, Labour? They're down from the 40% they polled in 2017 yes - but they were not at 40% during this part in the campaign last time, either.
Indeed, many of the polls in the days before predicted similar leads to what we are seeing now. I'm not saying the polls are wrong or anything, I just think people are far too quickly going "it's a guaranteed landslide, it's just how big it is". And that arrogance is starting to show up in the Tory campaign.
The Tory campaign is far less arrogant, far more ruthless and far more targeted and effective than it was in 2017
Apparently called Canada's election spot on, but that doesn't mean they'll get ours right. They've got some *cough* interesting *cough* results . . . including the Tories winning the North East of England.
It has Pidcock losing her seat by 1%.
Just rejoice at that news.....
Are you a Tory? You can’t be. You rather Pidcock lose than become next Labour leader.
I would rather Labour became a party no longer in thrall to the Marxist wreckers.
Ideally, Labour again becomes a party that I do not wish to see in power - but neither do I dread that outcome.
It would be nice to have a pragmatic Conservative party back rather than this nationalist, ideological Boris cult.
Translation - Guardian journos think oh f##k this is going to cost us a crap tonne of our money in higher taxes.
LBC had a phone-in with Russell-Moyle earlier and a hospital consultant phoned in grumbling that he and all his mates would have to pay more tax under Labour's £80,000 higher rate. I had to smile.
Probably not paying more tax, unless Labour keep the Tories pension allowance taper, which has a 100% or more marginal rate.
Is it likely that Labour would get rid of it? They don’t seem that keen on anything which could be considered a tax loop hole. Perhaps it was mentioned in the manifesto: I must admit I’m relying on the summaries here.
I have no idea. I have dropped work to avoid it. I understand the Laffer scepticism, but 100% marginal rate is certainly at the point that tax income ceases.
Comments
Analysts shocked.
20/1 Con take Wigan with Bet 365 I see.
I thought you were better than supporting Corbyn.
Don't do something that's beneath you.
Three weeks to save MRP!
Some of the things which look odd include:
Labour doing very badly in Bristol - losing Bristol East and coming within a whisker in Bristol South - surely not?
Tories doing very well indeed in S. Wales, gaining Caerphilly, Torfaen, Islwyn, Swansea East and both Newports - again, surely not?
Some unlikely Tory gains in the North - Sheffield SE, Hemsworth, Normanton Pontefract Castleford, Hull East, Hull West
Tories gaining both Lutons
Still, interesting, and very different to Baxter and Flavible.
The marriage tax allowance is only claimable where there IS NOT a higher rate taxpayer in the household so it's nothing to do with those earning £50k or more (let alone the £80k), it's only for basic rate taxpayers where there's a spouse not using up his/her full £12,500.
Not very clever politics.....
The polling gap average is what 11% or something, it's up by I think 1% on average.
It's still lower than in 2017 - and there's not far for it to fall, for things to go south quickly. If I were Johnson, I wouldn't have ministers saying the Government isn't to blame for poverty, or skipping debates. These seem like silly risks, if I was advising him anyway.
The most crucial thing to watch in the polls IMHO, is where the don't knows go to and how they change over the next week or so. And also how the Labour Remainers and Leavers change.
The polls pretty much agree on the strength of the Tory vote (although I don't see them getting above 40% myself - that's just a hunch) but they're more divided on the strength of the Labour vote. The polls are I think more split than last time (might be wrong).
If Labour can successfully swallow the Remain vote - and I think they can - and increase the under 30s choosing "might vote" in these polls, things will narrow quickly.
I'll lookout for Survation first, only because they seemed to show the changes quickest last time.
If I was to make a guess, I think the final result will be something like 37/35.
With a bit of luck, Labour will have a "Night of the long knives" session and send Momentum back to its dark, murky corner to fester for another 30 years.
Anyway, I was going to reply to say that I had been surprised not to have received anything from them, but today I received my first ever (as far as I can recall) political advert. It was from the Brexit Party.
They weren’t trying to convince me to vote for them. That seems to have been taken for granted, They have totally skipped that bit, and want me to deliver leaflets for them.
There are a lot of Tory marginals that Labour created in the last election - and I do wonder if we might not see some surprises.
(I should note for full transparency that I work in the public sector, but 5% won't buy my vote.)
They just sound unhinged tbh.
I wonder if at some point people go "fuck it I don't care anymore"
The conservatives need to be careful next week, now Labour have fired first.
So next week, tax cuts funded by borrowing, and you support that? Whilst it’s wanting to spend money raised through tax, wanting to redistribute the imbalance of wealth in the country that is most dangerous?
Tories should play it fiscally straight, ignore labour manifesto and focus on investment borrowing over tax cuts and avoid unconservative gimmicks and brexit dividends.
It all, of course, comes down to the question of where that Brexit Party vote comes from: what proportion of it consists of 2017 Con voters, 2017 Lab voters, 2017 voters for other parties, and 2017 non-voters?
Indeed, many of the polls in the days before predicted similar leads to what we are seeing now. I'm not saying the polls are wrong or anything, I just think people are far too quickly going "it's a guaranteed landslide, it's just how big it is". And that arrogance is starting to show up in the Tory campaign.
Boris has behaved abysmally and should not be rewarded with a majority.
For those who like to think this way. Imagine an alternative universe where people on here routinely make sweeping statements about 'the South' voting Tory. See how ludicrous that is?
Please can you stop it, as it reveals an almost childlike view of the country.
Perhaps it was mentioned in the manifesto: I must admit I’m relying on the summaries here.
It seems, so far at least, that the Conservative campaign is better and Labour's is worse.
I'm being quite consistent in this. If by next weekend Labour isn't moving forwards, they're in trouble. And anyone is free to hold me to that.
A decade ago we were talking of LibDem gains in Sheffield C, Islington S, Oxford E, Durham, Edinburgh S among others.
Ideally, Labour again becomes a party that I do not wish to see in power - but neither do I dread that outcome.
Voters by and large approve of money being thrown at public services (especially Our Beloved NHS) but on the understanding that it is someone else's money. If voters think that they, personally, are going to end up being presented with a huge tax bill then (apart from the very poor ones, for whom benefits are a far greater concern than taxes) they'll run away from Labour, screaming as they go.