Does this include the entirety of yesterday, just thinking it might not include the debate, not that I was really expecting an immediate surge anyway. If anything will happen it will be post the manifesto tomorrow.
Does this include the entirety of yesterday, just thinking it might not include the debate, not that I was really expecting an immediate surge anyway. If anything will happen it will be post the manifesto tomorrow.
Posts made via Safari or Chrome browsers containing the word "vote" appear to have been blocked on Facebook in the UK raising concerns about censorship
Blocked in the sense that you can't make them to your own timeline, or blocked in the sense that the browsers filter them out of your timeline?
Starting to think Trump will win Wisconsin but lose Arizona.
If Trump wins Wisconsin he almost certainly wins Arizona and re election, even if he does not the Democrats still need to win Michigan and Pennsylvania too.
In reality Trump still looks good for re election beyond the beltway
Wisconsin is the crucial state on Dave Leip's user prediction page. At the moment it's Dem 101, Rep 89. If it flips the overall prediction becomes a Trump win, because the ECVs are currently on Dem 278, Rep 260.
Posts made via Safari or Chrome browsers containing the word "vote" appear to have been blocked on Facebook in the UK raising concerns about censorship
Blocked in the sense that you can't make them to your own timeline, or blocked in the sense that the browsers filter them out of your timeline?
Anyone watching the Channel 4 documentary on the 737 Max.
Absolutely shocking .
Shocking yes, surprising no. I've done courses on software safety and systems safety and part of the systems safety coursework involved reading, digesting and commenting on the safety of a particular air crash investigation report. It was shocking how profits were more important than the safety of the passengers. In the report I read the airline cut costs on maintenance and over the pacific ocean the plane catastrophically and unrecoverably lost control of the plane.
Interesting that UK Elect have Tom Brake losing Carshalton Cant see it.....
Their model is rubbish if it's predicting Brake to lose.
That prediction (a loss by a few hundred votes) seems to be influenced by the Brexit leave percentage in the constituency. It actually includes a projected incumbency bonus for Tom Brake and some tactical voting in his favour.
Does this include the entirety of yesterday, just thinking it might not include the debate, not that I was really expecting an immediate surge anyway. If anything will happen it will be post the manifesto tomorrow.
You still expecting a Labour surge?
I am, depending on what you call a surge - Tories had some great polls pre debate, it won't be hard to see Labour cut into that a little.
The Comres has a range of questions on suggested Labour policies . All score well barring one which goes down badly would be any increase in Inheritance Tax .
Labour down with the Tories and LDs gaining, great poll for the Tories
Average of 4 polls so far this week:
Con 42.8 Lab 30.0 LD 14.8 BXP 4.0
Con lead 12.8
The average Tory lead was 15.5% at this stage in GE2017, but it had already begun to fall.
In 2017 the Tories began the campaign on 50%, so it was difficult for them to go in any other direction than down.
Fake news.
The Tories didn't begin GE17 on 50% - the average of the six polls before the election was called was 42.8%. It rose during the first few weeks of the election, to sit in the 45-50% range, then fell back to the 40-45% range during the last three weeks.
They really go down that much though, it was more that Labour went up.
Actually that's not 100% correct. Cutting taxes does actually benefit those not currently paying the tax by encouraging them to earn more. Taxes put off people from earning more, especially when this combines with other taxes and/or the removal of benefits.
The minimum wage for over 25s (living wage) is £8.21 per hour. 30 hours per week at £8.21 per hour takes you to £12.8k per annum. 20 hours per week at £8.21 takes you to £8.5k per annum.
If someone is currently working at 20 hours per week and is worried about the impact on taxes and the withdrawal of benefits and this change encourages them to increase to working 30 hour per week then theoretically they would have been classed as not gaining from this change previously but the reality is they gain more than anyone else.
That is why some tax stats never add up, because they forget that changing tax rates and thresholds changes behaviour.
If you are working 20 hours a week and qualify for working tax credits - chances are they a single parent with children in school or nursery and cannot work more hours due to child care reasons.
Maybe, maybe not. I have known a lot of people working 20 hours who don't want to work more because they think its not worth it due to taxes/benefits.
I've also known a smaller number of people who legitimately work 20 hours then work cash in hand more hours so they don't lose their benefits or pay taxes.
Not everyone is the same. The fraud cases are a small proportion but the people who are put off working more they could work as it is "not worth it" are much, much higher.
That is why IMO merging Income Tax and NICs is a good start but not enough IMO. Income Tax, NICs and Universal Credit should all be merged and nobody should be taxed at a high percentage. If you're losing 65% of every pound you earn due to lost Universal Credit and 12p in every pound you earn due to NICs then your effective income tax is 77%.
We wouldn't tax higher earners at 77% so why do we tax the poor at that rate? No wonder people think working 20 hours is enough and no point working more!
I'm going to ask Shadsy to open up a market on The Duke of York becoming the Governor of the Bahamas.
Governor of the Falklands would be appropriate in so many ways.
Do the Pitcairn Islands have a role for Randy Andy?
St Helena is the obvious place for him to go. Saw some really big graffiti still there in 2011, welcoming him in the mid-1980s.
He was there with my ex-boyfriend, my first serious love, a photographer who took photos of St Helena and had an exhibition of them in London, which Prince Andrew opened.
I have one of the photos - a beautiful landscape of St Helena - on my wall at home.
For obvious reasons, I was a bit miffed that we had gone our separate ways before the St Helena trip.
Let us not forget that our current monarch performed Nazi salutes.
Although not in the past 80-odd years. She's hardly been out on recent Tommy Robinson rallies, has she now?
Well she didn't get upset when her grandson dressed up as a Nazi or used the term 'Paki'.
How the hell do you know?
Honestly, there is a perfectly reasonable case to be made against a monarchy but you weaken yours considerably, indeed make it look ridiculous, when you cite the Queen doing something as a child when she simply could not have known what it meant as a reason not to have a monarchy.
Comments
https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1197268338591834112
It doesn't.
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2020/pred.php
https://www.wuwm.com/post/marquette-poll-director-misreading-2016-election#stream/0
It's difficult to match them up relatively. But Labour needs to make progress this week to stand a chance.
Thought this was appropriate: https://i.imgur.com/VRmgDj7.gif
17th November 12.1%
10th November 9.7%
3rd November 12.1%
His response has issues without pretending it was saying something it wasn't.
But Corbyn had the much better snappy response.
He's just an objectionable oik.
But, just like Man Utd and the Black Eyed Peas, it's been downhill since Fergie left.
With apologies to the ten or twelve per cent of the English-speaking world who have already made this joke.
NEW THREAD
The Tories didn't begin GE17 on 50% - the average of the six polls before the election was called was 42.8%. It rose during the first few weeks of the election, to sit in the 45-50% range, then fell back to the 40-45% range during the last three weeks.
They really go down that much though, it was more that Labour went up.
Felicity Buchan, Conservative 14235 36.89%
Sam Gyimah, Lib. Dem. 12882 33.38%
Emma Dent Coad, Labour 11154 28.90%
And also that nothing will change between last week and next November.
IOW no better than your opinion, whatever that might be worth.
I've also known a smaller number of people who legitimately work 20 hours then work cash in hand more hours so they don't lose their benefits or pay taxes.
Not everyone is the same. The fraud cases are a small proportion but the people who are put off working more they could work as it is "not worth it" are much, much higher.
That is why IMO merging Income Tax and NICs is a good start but not enough IMO. Income Tax, NICs and Universal Credit should all be merged and nobody should be taxed at a high percentage. If you're losing 65% of every pound you earn due to lost Universal Credit and 12p in every pound you earn due to NICs then your effective income tax is 77%.
We wouldn't tax higher earners at 77% so why do we tax the poor at that rate? No wonder people think working 20 hours is enough and no point working more!
I have one of the photos - a beautiful landscape of St Helena - on my wall at home.
For obvious reasons, I was a bit miffed that we had gone our separate ways before the St Helena trip.
Honestly, there is a perfectly reasonable case to be made against a monarchy but you weaken yours considerably, indeed make it look ridiculous, when you cite the Queen doing something as a child when she simply could not have known what it meant as a reason not to have a monarchy.