Well you obviously don’t know many remainders I voted remain because it was best for the UK in total, how that best was spent was up to our politicians. Remainders voted remain because they believed that unity was strength and had more impact on the world stage. They voted remain because it was far better to be on the inside influencing decision rather than having to take what they decided. They voted remain because the lies of the leave campaign were beyond belief and couldn’t believe that, as it turned out, people still believed the EU had banned bendy bananas and confers. Not once did personal financial position enter the equation it was a stupid idiotic decision which will go down in history as the biggest act of collective lunacy ever.
Yeah, so I'm a middle class professional living in London, working in an office of metropolitan liberals mostly in their 20s and 30s. So I'd say most people I know voted Remain, verging on "overwhelming majority".
I think there is a big grey area that encompasses "I think this is best for me and my family" and "I think this is best for the country, because I've implicitly assumed there are lots of people like me in the country."
Sorry that sounds like bollocks. You're telling me you know how everyone in your office voted and why because they told you it was to protect their house values.
*cough* bullshit *cough*
Yeah, that's fair comment. I forgot about my colleagues when I made the original comment, and was then mostly thinking about friends, parents of friends and friend's parents. My colleagues almost exclusively voted Remains as well; I don't know why in many case, but my feel is it was in most cases due to general economic concerns, eg jobs market, trade, inflation concerns etc.
Hopefully that's clearer and explains the apparent inconsistency. I'm still not sure any of it constitutes what I would think of as altruism.
One would expect nothing less, you are not very good at disguising your contempt for lib dems, just n be more honest about condemning them.
I didn't write it.
I have mixed feelings about the LibDems, since you ask. I work very well with them on a local level, and also worked with several of them very closely in Parliament - particularly Norman Lamb. But I don't feel they are reliable - apart from PR, where they obviously have a direct interest, there are few policies which I feel sure they would support or oppose 5 years from now. I know what they're against, and often that's enough to wish them well in a particular seat, but what they're for seems too much of a mocable feast. Sorry.
A story best left to private debate so withdrew it after thought but it was about labour and the PR promise.
Just had a YouGov survey which included at the end one of those 'Imagine it is a close contest between the Tories and LDs and others did not have a chance' etc type questions. Fun times.
Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
Well you obviously don’t know many remainders I voted remain because it was best for the UK in total, how that best was spent was up to our politicians. Remainders voted remain because they believed that unity was strength and had more impact on the world stage. They voted remain because it was far better to be on the inside influencing decision rather than having to take what they decided. They voted remain because the lies of the leave campaign were beyond belief and couldn’t believe that, as it turned out, people still believed the EU had banned bendy bananas and confers. Not once did personal financial position enter the equation it was a stupid idiotic decision which will go down in history as the biggest act of collective lunacy ever.
Yeah, so I'm a middle class professional living in London, working in an office of metropolitan liberals mostly in their 20s and 30s. So I'd say most people I know voted Remain, verging on "overwhelming majority".
I think there is a big grey area that encompasses "I think this is best for me and my family" and "I think this is best for the country, because I've implicitly assumed there are lots of people like me in the country."
Sorry that sounds like bollocks. You're telling me you know how everyone in your office voted and why because they told you it was to protect their house values.
*cough* bullshit *cough*
Yeah, that's fair comment. I forgot about my colleagues when I made the original comment, and was then mostly thinking about friends, parents of friends and friend's parents. My colleagues almost exclusively voted Remains as well; I don't know why in many case, but my feel is it was in most cases due to general economic concerns, eg jobs market, trade, inflation concerns etc.
Hopefully that's clearer and explains the apparent inconsistency. I'm still not sure any of it constitutes what I would think of as altruism.
Thanks.
I'm still cautious about assuming what people's motives are especially on this subject.
Just had a YouGov survey which included at the end one of those 'Imagine it is a close contest between the Tories and LDs and others did not have a chance' etc type questions. Fun times.
Mr. Obama is going public with a message for his fellow Democrats he had previously made in private to allies and a handful of friendly journalists: Focus on defeating President Trump, ditch the ideological purity and the “cancel” culture, or face the abyss.
Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
I see this predicts a Tory gain in Birmingham Northfield (my old patch), which is one of my bets. I am surprised others seem to think it is a Lab hold.
Birmingham Northfield looks like a possible Tory gain but could be close.
Incidentally, if you or anyone else has a Windows based PC and wants to try a forecast yourself, perhaps adjusting the figures or weighting for various factors (of which there are far too many to be very confident of any forecast), then just message me and I'll send you a download link.
It'll be very close in my opinion. Popular local MP makes it difficult for the Tories.
Phil's model based on late October YouGov has 62% Leave voting Birmingham Northfield as: Con 15,573 Lab 11,990 LD 5,944 BXP 5,966 G 3,091
PP also have Con favorite at 4/6. I think that has value. In strong Leave voting West Midlands constituencies, the swing from Lab to Con is generally going to be greater than the UNS suggests. Obviously local factors and long time incumbency can come into play a part but I don't think they'll be enough to rescue Labour there.
Well you obviously don’t know many remainders I voted remain because it was best for the UK in total, how that best was spent was up to our politicians. Remainders voted remain because they believed that unity was strength and had more impact on the world stage. They voted remain because it was far better to be on the inside influencing decision rather than having to take what they decided. They voted remain because the lies of the leave campaign were beyond belief and couldn’t believe that, as it turned out, people still believed the EU had banned bendy bananas and confers. Not once did personal financial position enter the equation it was a stupid idiotic decision which will go down in history as the biggest act of collective lunacy ever.
Yeah, so I'm a middle class professional living in London, working in an office of metropolitan liberals mostly in their 20s and 30s. So I'd say most people I know voted Remain, verging on "overwhelming majority".
I think there is a big grey area that encompasses "I think this is best for me and my family" and "I think this is best for the country, because I've implicitly assumed there are lots of people like me in the country."
Sorry that sounds like bollocks. You're telling me you know how everyone in your office voted and why because they told you it was to protect their house values.
*cough* bullshit *cough*
Yeah, that's fair comment. I forgot about my colleagues when I made the original comment, and was then mostly thinking about friends, parents of friends and friend's parents. My colleagues almost exclusively voted Remains as well; I don't know why in many case, but my feel is it was in most cases due to general economic concerns, eg jobs market, trade, inflation concerns etc.
Hopefully that's clearer and explains the apparent inconsistency. I'm still not sure any of it constitutes what I would think of as altruism.
Thanks.
I'm still cautious about assuming what people's motives are especially on this subject.
Happy to agree on that point. i do my best to be objective, but probably fail occasionally.
@nichomar has changed his/her/their stated motive sometime between 7:50pm and 8:22pm, which just tells you how tricky these things can be to nail down.
If someone voted Leave for "sovereignty" reasons, is that altruistic?
Mr. Obama is going public with a message for his fellow Democrats he had previously made in private to allies and a handful of friendly journalists: Focus on defeating President Trump, ditch the ideological purity and the “cancel” culture, or face the abyss.
Just had a YouGov survey which included at the end one of those 'Imagine it is a close contest between the Tories and LDs and others did not have a chance' etc type questions. Fun times.
Just had a YouGov survey which included at the end one of those 'Imagine it is a close contest between the Tories and LDs and others did not have a chance' etc type questions. Fun times.
Just had a YouGov survey which included at the end one of those 'Imagine it is a close contest between the Tories and LDs and others did not have a chance' etc type questions. Fun times.
No polls today 😪
Just cut out the middleman and ask the denizens of PB their VI, seems that's all Yougov does anyway.
Mr. Obama is going public with a message for his fellow Democrats he had previously made in private to allies and a handful of friendly journalists: Focus on defeating President Trump, ditch the ideological purity and the “cancel” culture, or face the abyss.
Well you obviously don’t know many remainders I voted remain because it was best for the UK in total, how that best was spent was up to our politicians. Remainders voted remain because they believed that unity was strength and had more impact on the world stage. They voted remain because it was far better to be on the inside influencing decision rather than having to take what they decided. They voted remain because the lies of the leave campaign were beyond belief and couldn’t believe that, as it turned out, people still believed the EU had banned bendy bananas and confers. Not once did personal financial position enter the equation it was a stupid idiotic decision which will go down in history as the biggest act of collective lunacy ever.
Yeah, so I'm a middle class professional living in London, working in an office of metropolitan liberals mostly in their 20s and 30s. So I'd say most people I know voted Remain, verging on "overwhelming majority".
I think there is a big grey area that encompasses "I think this is best for me and my family" and "I think this is best for the country, because I've implicitly assumed there are lots of people like me in the country."
Sorry that sounds like bollocks. You're telling me you know how everyone in your office voted and why because they told you it was to protect their house values.
*cough* bullshit *cough*
Yeah, that's fair comment. I forgot about my colleagues when I made the original comment, and was then mostly thinking about friends, parents of friends and friend's parents. My colleagues almost exclusively voted Remains as well; I don't know why in many case, but my feel is it was in most cases due to general economic concerns, eg jobs market, trade, inflation concerns etc.
Hopefully that's clearer and explains the apparent inconsistency. I'm still not sure any of it constitutes what I would think of as altruism.
Thanks.
I'm still cautious about assuming what people's motives are especially on this subject.
Happy to agree on that point. i do my best to be objective, but probably fail occasionally.
@nichomar has changed his/her/their stated motive sometime between 7:50pm and 8:22pm, which just tells you how tricky these things can be to nail down.
If someone voted Leave for "sovereignty" reasons, is that altruistic?
At my most generous I would say maybe. There is a chance that sovereignty is to an extent in the eye of the beholder.
Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
Does nobody realise Swinson's strategy is to win Tory seats by convincing voters Corbyn will not be PM with their votes - but in reality they will just abstain.
She knows full well the only partner that can actually help her will be Labour.
Any serious political punter should reject voting LibDem on account of their ban of credit cards for gambling.
I use mine all the time to manage cashflow.
Careful some credit card companies treat (or plan to treat) gambling transactions as cash advances which means a 3% charge and a silly interest rate on it.
Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.
Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.
But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
People are reading this election through the prism of the last one. BJ is nothing like TM and the Tory manifesto won't be anywhere near as bad as last time. JC is much more of a known quantity. I suspect that BJ will win a majority albeit a smallish one
I think that's less to do with assessment of the quality of the leaders and more to do with the suspicion that a lot of ex-Labour voters who are currently claiming that they will vote for some other party will go back again at some point between now and December 12th.
If that's wrong and the Tories win by something like 10% on vote share then they should be home and hosed.
Any serious political punter should reject voting LibDem on account of their ban of credit cards for gambling.
I use mine all the time to manage cashflow.
Careful some credit card companies treat (or plan to treat) gambling transactions as cash advances which means a 3% charge and a silly interest rate on it.
But others offer cash offers for a low fee and no interest for a year.
I factor the fee into my calculations on betting returns.
Northfield is interesting, I see they have Dromey clinging on by his fingernails in Erdington and edgbaston close
I have Labour losing Erdington by 1,500 but Edgbaston too close to call with Con ahead by 200. In reality I think Lab will hold on to Edgbaston because there is a far bigger pool of Remainer tactical votes there.
Northfield is interesting, I see they have Dromey clinging on by his fingernails in Erdington and edgbaston close
I have Labour losing Erdington by 1,500 but Edgbaston too close to call with Con ahead by 200. In reality I think Lab will hold on to Edgbaston because there is a far bigger pool of Remainer tactical votes there.
For what it is worth, Rod Liddle in Sunday Times reckons Lab are going to be smashed in W Midlands.
Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority
Quite the opposite.
According to the IFS the biggest beneficiaries of this change in cash terms are the those in the top 10% income bracket. The biggest beneficiaries as a % of income are those in the 7th decile. The poorest 10% gain least both in absolute and % terms.
Presuming the upper NI threshold isn't extended - when the £50k threshold for 40% tax came in, the upper NI threshold was aligned up to that too meaning the 20% income tax saving on the increase was partially offset by extra 10% employer NI.
Didn't hit the wealthy pensioner of course as pensioners don't pay NI.
It isn't possible to get around the hard fact that if the poorest don't pay NI and IT in the first place (which of course they should not) they can't benefit from tax changes. It should not cause surprise.
Does nobody realise Swinson's strategy is to win Tory seats by convincing voters Corbyn will not be PM with their votes - but in reality they will just abstain.
She knows full well the only partner that can actually help her will be Labour.
Tory voters are wise to this, something I suspect the lib dems are finding on the doorstep in the leafy enclaves they are trying to take.
This might be confirmation bias on my part, but the LD manifesto isn't exactly the Gettysburg address is it?
I think I could get more inspired reading Nick Timothy.
One rather suspects that none of the manifestos will be exemplars of Lincoln-like erudition.
Certainly not the forthcoming Conservative effort. They really ought just to print "No tax rises for pensioners" in huge letters on the front cover, "Labour wants to steal all your money" in equally huge letters on the back, a big photo of Boris Johnson wearing a "Get Brexit Done" t-shirt and stood in front of various hospitals on all eighty pages inside, with everything else printed in six-point type underneath the Boris photos. That ought to be entirely sufficient.
Does nobody realise Swinson's strategy is to win Tory seats by convincing voters Corbyn will not be PM with their votes - but in reality they will just abstain.
She knows full well the only partner that can actually help her will be Labour.
Tory voters are wise to this, something I suspect the lib dems are finding on the doorstep in the leafy enclaves they are trying to take.
Suspect that's why the surge will be very limited.
Guildford and Winchester are seats the LDs have won before for instance. And in London people are generally more anti-Tory than pro-Tory, in my experience.
Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
What UK elect don't seem to be factoring in is the scale of the EU referendum vote for Leave or Remain in each constituency. I think they are just in general factoring in uniform regional swings regardless of whether a constituency voted leave or remain.
Does nobody realise Swinson's strategy is to win Tory seats by convincing voters Corbyn will not be PM with their votes - but in reality they will just abstain.
She knows full well the only partner that can actually help her will be Labour.
If the LDs abstain and the Tories are largest party, Corbyn will not be PM, Boris still will be, even if the LDs vote for EUref2
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
What about a good night for BJ? Have any of those coming?
Corbyn chokes after BJ surge. Swinson mopping up remainers.
Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.
Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.
But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
People are reading this election through the prism of the last one. BJ is nothing like TM and the Tory manifesto won't be anywhere near as bad as last time. JC is much more of a known quantity. I suspect that BJ will win a majority albeit a smallish one
I think that's less to do with assessment of the quality of the leaders and more to do with the suspicion that a lot of ex-Labour voters who are currently claiming that they will vote for some other party will go back again at some point between now and December 12th.
If that's wrong and the Tories win by something like 10% on vote share then they should be home and hosed.
To a certain extent it is to do with the leaders. It's not the hard left voters who are pondering whether to vote labour or not it's the centerist voters. In 2017 both JC, TM and TF all turned them off. This year people seem to be more amenable to both JS and BJ plus TBP and Greens are able to draw some of those voters. Whether they go back or not is the big question I grant you.
Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
What UK elect don't seem to be factoring in is the scale of the EU referendum vote for Leave or Remain in each constituency. I think they are just in general factoring in uniform regional swings regardless of whether a constituency voted leave or remain.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
What about a good night for BJ? Have any of those coming?
Corbyn chokes after BJ surge. Swinson mopping up remainers.
Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority
Quite the opposite.
According to the IFS the biggest beneficiaries of this change in cash terms are the those in the top 10% income bracket. The biggest beneficiaries as a % of income are those in the 7th decile. The poorest 10% gain least both in absolute and % terms.
Presuming the upper NI threshold isn't extended - when the £50k threshold for 40% tax came in, the upper NI threshold was aligned up to that too meaning the 20% income tax saving on the increase was partially offset by extra 10% employer NI.
Didn't hit the wealthy pensioner of course as pensioners don't pay NI.
It isn't possible to get around the hard fact that if the poorest don't pay NI and IT in the first place (which of course they should not) they can't benefit from tax changes. It should not cause surprise.
Indirectly even the poorest can gain by reducing the poverty trap so they feel confident to earn more and not be discouraged by taxes.
I wrote that post after seeing your reply. Giving National Insurance credits is the only way to change NI that will benefit people that people that don't pay it. The vast majority of people will benefit from the proposed NI changes, and lower and middle income earners to a bigger percentage degree than higher earners. Obviously the higher rate threshold change will only affect those currently paying the current higher rate, so not me. But I don't begrudge those who will benefit from it, because I don't support politics of envy.
Actually that's not 100% correct. Cutting taxes does actually benefit those not currently paying the tax by encouraging them to earn more. Taxes put off people from earning more, especially when this combines with other taxes and/or the removal of benefits.
The minimum wage for over 25s (living wage) is £8.21 per hour. 30 hours per week at £8.21 per hour takes you to £12.8k per annum. 20 hours per week at £8.21 takes you to £8.5k per annum.
If someone is currently working at 20 hours per week and is worried about the impact on taxes and the withdrawal of benefits and this change encourages them to increase to working 30 hour per week then theoretically they would have been classed as not gaining from this change previously but the reality is they gain more than anyone else.
That is why some tax stats never add up, because they forget that changing tax rates and thresholds changes behaviour.
Labour needs to get the pitch right tomorrow I feel.
Make the 4 day week sound very uncontroversial, I suspect it will be downgraded to an ambition.
Brexit, not sure Corbyn is ever going to be able to win on that. To be honest I think if he did come out for Remain people wouldn't believe him anyway and also, it would make his re-negotiate position look even sillier. So whilst his current position is bad, I do think it could be a lot worse.
Be interesting to see if that debate did have any impact on Remainers going to Labour - we had seen signs of this already.
Because Ken Starr has such a great success rate successfully impeaching presidents.
Plus while the Senate remains GOP Trump is going nowhere
Actually Ken Starr has a 100% record on impeaching Presidents.
He asked the House to impeach Clinton and they did.
Impeachment and conviction are two different things as the betting markets and US constitution will will tell you.
We’ve already had “that phoney emoluments clause”. What’s the odds Trump will say the same about Congress’ powers of impeachment ?
Though John Roberts is unlikely to support him on that....
I'm convinced we're heading for this situation.
Trump loses the election next year but refuses to leave because he says the Dems rigged the election.
The question is what happens next after that. I would guess the GOP establishment all go on TV and tell him to go. What does Fox News say? Would they have control over the voter base?
Posts made via Safari or Chrome browsers containing the word "vote" appear to have been blocked on Facebook in the UK raising concerns about censorship
Starting to think Trump will win Wisconsin but lose Arizona.
If Trump wins Wisconsin he almost certainly wins Arizona and re election, even if he does not the Democrats still need to win Michigan and Pennsylvania too.
In reality Trump still looks good for re election beyond the beltway
Actually that's not 100% correct. Cutting taxes does actually benefit those not currently paying the tax by encouraging them to earn more. Taxes put off people from earning more, especially when this combines with other taxes and/or the removal of benefits.
The minimum wage for over 25s (living wage) is £8.21 per hour. 30 hours per week at £8.21 per hour takes you to £12.8k per annum. 20 hours per week at £8.21 takes you to £8.5k per annum.
If someone is currently working at 20 hours per week and is worried about the impact on taxes and the withdrawal of benefits and this change encourages them to increase to working 30 hour per week then theoretically they would have been classed as not gaining from this change previously but the reality is they gain more than anyone else.
That is why some tax stats never add up, because they forget that changing tax rates and thresholds changes behaviour.
If you are working 20 hours a week and qualify for working tax credits - chances are they a single parent with children in school or nursery and cannot work more hours due to child care reasons.
Does this include the entirety of yesterday, just thinking it might not include the debate, not that I was really expecting an immediate surge anyway. If anything will happen it will be post the manifesto tomorrow.
"On Twitter, tweets talking about the ITV debate that used Boris Johnson's handle were viewed 2,645,726 times, while tweets using Jeremy Corbyn's handle were viewed 1,964,520 times.
By contrast, tweets mentioning the handle of CCHQ generated 12,897,552 impressions - almost six times that of the prime minister."
Comments
Hopefully that's clearer and explains the apparent inconsistency. I'm still not sure any of it constitutes what I would think of as altruism.
Since when was the mirror left wing?
I'm still cautious about assuming what people's motives are especially on this subject.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/20/us/politics/obama-2020-candidates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Con 15,573
Lab 11,990
LD 5,944
BXP 5,966
G 3,091
PP also have Con favorite at 4/6. I think that has value. In strong Leave voting West Midlands constituencies, the swing from Lab to Con is generally going to be greater than the UNS suggests. Obviously local factors and long time incumbency can come into play a part but I don't think they'll be enough to rescue Labour there.
@nichomar has changed his/her/their stated motive sometime between 7:50pm and 8:22pm, which just tells you how tricky these things can be to nail down.
If someone voted Leave for "sovereignty" reasons, is that altruistic?
Fun times.
My prediction is something of a localised Lib Dem surge.
I think I could get more inspired reading Nick Timothy.
I use mine all the time to manage cashflow.
She knows full well the only partner that can actually help her will be Labour.
If that's wrong and the Tories win by something like 10% on vote share then they should be home and hosed.
That Labour Manifesto launch tomorrow - guess who and guess where......
I factor the fee into my calculations on betting returns.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1197252330816712704
Dreadful days.
https://twitter.com/tomwatson/status/1197186961229959168?s=20
https://twitter.com/PhilippeReines/status/1197200098435981313?s=20
Certainly not the forthcoming Conservative effort. They really ought just to print "No tax rises for pensioners" in huge letters on the front cover, "Labour wants to steal all your money" in equally huge letters on the back, a big photo of Boris Johnson wearing a "Get Brexit Done" t-shirt and stood in front of various hospitals on all eighty pages inside, with everything else printed in six-point type underneath the Boris photos. That ought to be entirely sufficient.
Guildford and Winchester are seats the LDs have won before for instance. And in London people are generally more anti-Tory than pro-Tory, in my experience.
Plus while the Senate remains GOP Trump is going nowhere
It is all going crazy. What will they be promising by this time next week?
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/869666/thread
Most Labour seats in London are fairly safe right?
He asked the House to impeach Clinton and they did.
Impeachment and conviction are two different things as the betting markets and US constitution will will tell you.
Unless a few Republican Senators rediscover their self respect in the meantime.
Cannot recall two different pollsters carrying out a joint poll.
If I was to make a prediction, strong Lib Dem vote, cut into by Labour.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1197223932279037957?s=20
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/final-estimates-of-the-leave-vote-or-areal-interpolation-and-the-uks-referendum-on-eu-membership-5490b6cab878
they are up as a google spreadsheet here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b71SDKPFbk-ktmUTXmDpUP5PT299qq24orEA0_TOpmw/edit#gid=579044181
Lol
What’s the odds Trump will say the same about Congress’ powers of impeachment ?
Though John Roberts is unlikely to support him on that....
But I suspect this kind of seat is very good for a tactical vote if people are prepared to be intelligent.
Cant see it.....
Make the 4 day week sound very uncontroversial, I suspect it will be downgraded to an ambition.
Brexit, not sure Corbyn is ever going to be able to win on that. To be honest I think if he did come out for Remain people wouldn't believe him anyway and also, it would make his re-negotiate position look even sillier. So whilst his current position is bad, I do think it could be a lot worse.
Be interesting to see if that debate did have any impact on Remainers going to Labour - we had seen signs of this already.
Trump loses the election next year but refuses to leave because he says the Dems rigged the election.
https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1197140022224445440
Sky News analysis shows that while the stunt sparked plenty of complaints, it was effective when it came to raw numbers.
Rowland Manthorpe"
https://news.sky.com/story/conservatives-fact-check-twitter-stunt-11865840
Moreover, is anyone watching Ronin on ITV4 and *not* simultaneously browsing Autotrader for an old Audi S8?
Raab is a deeply unpleasant man.
Posts made via Safari or Chrome browsers containing the word "vote" appear to have been blocked on Facebook in the UK raising concerns about censorship
In reality Trump still looks good for re election beyond the beltway
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
BXP: 5% (=)
Via @SavantaComRes, 18-19 Nov.
Changes w/ 13-14 Nov.
There you go, before the debate
Absolutely shocking .
Con 42.8
Lab 30.0
LD 14.8
BXP 4.0
Con lead 12.8
By contrast, tweets mentioning the handle of CCHQ generated 12,897,552 impressions - almost six times that of the prime minister."
https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1197269296126341120
He should be forced to go on universal credit.