Britain Elects 33,000 votes Corbyn 57% Johnson 28%
Paul Brand ITV 30,000 votes Corbyn 78% Johnson 22%
Martin Lewis 23,000 votes Corbyn 47% Johnson 25%
The Times 8,000 votes Corbyn 63% Johnson 37%
YouGov 1,646 polled Corbyn 49% Johnson 51%
It doesn't matter how many people vote on Twitter, it's worthless in terms of polling accuracy.
From UKPR:
"In the 1930s in the USA the Literary Digest used to do mail-in polls that really did survey millions of people, literally millions. In 1936 they sent surveys to a quarter of the entire electorate and received 2 million replies. They confidently predicted that Alf Landon would win the imminent US Presidential election with 57% of the popular vote and 370 electoral votes. George Gallup meanwhile used quota sampling to interview just a few thousand people and predicted that Landon would lose miserably to Roosevelt. In reality, Roosevelt beat Landon in a landslide, winning 61% of the vote and 523 electoral votes. Gallup was right, the Digest was wrong."
Just seen from the Beeb's live election coverage feed that in Labour's 2017 manifesto they said “A Labour government will guarantee no rises in income tax for those earning below £80,000 a year, and no increases in personal National Insurance contributions or the rate of VAT.”
They're not going to say the same again and try to raise the bulk of the half a trillion spending they've promised by adding loads of it to employers' NICs, are they?
On the other hand (and given they are most likely to form the government) it will be interesting to see how the Tories' tax cuts + higher spending stacks up once their costed manifesto is published (assuming they bother to cost it this time).
I assume they’ll cost it. Whether anyone believes it is another matter. Same for Labour’s.
We will get the IFS costings of course. Speaking of which:
Somewhat unsurprising as the lowest deciles pay so little tax in the first place thanks to various allowances.
None of the figures in that chart depends on how much tax is paid currently!
The horizontal axis is "income decile". Those with the lowest incomes, surprise surprise, already pay the lowest taxes.
The chart doesn't tell you anything whatsoever about how much tax is "already paid." It tells you how much the change would be in tax paid - absolutely and as a proportion of income.
Do you want the lowest paid to get NI credits before they hit the current £8.5k threshold?!
Please see my replies to the other guy.
I wrote that post after seeing your reply. Giving National Insurance credits is the only way to change NI that will benefit people that people that don't pay it. The vast majority of people will benefit from the proposed NI changes, and lower and middle income earners to a bigger percentage degree than higher earners. Obviously the higher rate threshold change will only affect those currently paying the current higher rate, so not me. But I don't begrudge those who will benefit from it, because I don't support politics of envy.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
Just make sure the site doesn't crash due to too much traffic.
That's Robert's area of expertise.
That said since the server upgrade we've had two general elections, an American Presidential election, an EU Referendum, and an IndyRef, and we've coped with the traffic.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
Just make sure the site doesn't crash due to too much traffic.
That's Robert's area of expertise.
That said since the server upgrade we've had two general elections, an American Presidential election, an EU Referendum, and an IndyRef, and we've coped with the traffic.
What if Vanilla decides to have an update at 10:00pm GMT on Dec 12th?
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
You could probably write a script that would check the results on the BBC website and then post the appropriate prepared article, "this is a historic defeat for Labour", "Johnson fails to deliver satisfaction", "does anyone know what's going on?", etc
Because you said "If you don't pay any tax." Of course, if you'd said "If you don't pay the tax that's being cut," there would have been no argument.
The poor pay a lot of tax, particularly as a percentage of income.
I will endeavor to be more precise in the future, but I thought that was implied because I was talking specifically about the effects of those taxes.
No problem. Always happy to help - in this case by clarifying that you're against these proposals because they're regressive tax cuts for the rich.
The proposed NI cut is not a regressive tax cut for the rich. Only the increased higher rate threshold is. So if you'd like to be precise, why not make that clear?
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
Just make sure the site doesn't crash due to too much traffic.
That's Robert's area of expertise.
That said since the server upgrade we've had two general elections, an American Presidential election, an EU Referendum, and an IndyRef, and we've coped with the traffic.
What if Vanilla decides to have an update at 10:00pm GMT on Dec 12th?
*innocent face*
Don't even joke.
Disqus decided to schedule a server upgrade for 11pm on the 6th of November 2012, it was expected people would not be able to comment for between 2 and 4 hours.
Fortunately the Telegraph and other news organisations that used Disqus then put a stop to that.
I mean it was only going to clash with the US Presidential election.
Because you said "If you don't pay any tax." Of course, if you'd said "If you don't pay the tax that's being cut," there would have been no argument.
The poor pay a lot of tax, particularly as a percentage of income.
I will endeavor to be more precise in the future, but I thought that was implied because I was talking specifically about the effects of those taxes.
No problem. Always happy to help - in this case by clarifying that you're against these proposals because they're regressive tax cuts for the rich.
And how would you cut taxes so that they only benefit the lowest earners who don't pay any income taxes at the moment? Give them poor people cards to identify themselves as people exempt from VAT and alcohol and fuel duties? Or maybe sew badges in their coats?
Because you said "If you don't pay any tax." Of course, if you'd said "If you don't pay the tax that's being cut," there would have been no argument.
The poor pay a lot of tax, particularly as a percentage of income.
I will endeavor to be more precise in the future, but I thought that was implied because I was talking specifically about the effects of those taxes.
No problem. Always happy to help - in this case by clarifying that you're against these proposals because they're regressive tax cuts for the rich.
And how would you cut taxes so that they only benefit the lowest earners who don't pay any income taxes at the moment? Give them poor people cards to identify themselves as people exempt from VAT and alcohol and fuel duties? Or maybe sew badges in their coats?
You could have a negative income tax band at the bottom.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
I wrote that post after seeing your reply. Giving National Insurance credits is the only way to change NI that will benefit people that people that don't pay it. The vast majority of people will benefit from the proposed NI changes, and lower and middle income earners to a bigger percentage degree than higher earners. Obviously the higher rate threshold change will only affect those currently paying the current higher rate, so not me. But I don't begrudge those who will benefit from it, because I don't support politics of envy.
Actually that's not 100% correct. Cutting taxes does actually benefit those not currently paying the tax by encouraging them to earn more. Taxes put off people from earning more, especially when this combines with other taxes and/or the removal of benefits.
The minimum wage for over 25s (living wage) is £8.21 per hour. 30 hours per week at £8.21 per hour takes you to £12.8k per annum. 20 hours per week at £8.21 takes you to £8.5k per annum.
If someone is currently working at 20 hours per week and is worried about the impact on taxes and the withdrawal of benefits and this change encourages them to increase to working 30 hour per week then theoretically they would have been classed as not gaining from this change previously but the reality is they gain more than anyone else.
That is why some tax stats never add up, because they forget that changing tax rates and thresholds changes behaviour.
Because you said "If you don't pay any tax." Of course, if you'd said "If you don't pay the tax that's being cut," there would have been no argument.
The poor pay a lot of tax, particularly as a percentage of income.
I will endeavor to be more precise in the future, but I thought that was implied because I was talking specifically about the effects of those taxes.
No problem. Always happy to help - in this case by clarifying that you're against these proposals because they're regressive tax cuts for the rich.
And how would you cut taxes so that they only benefit the lowest earners who don't pay any income taxes at the moment? Give them poor people cards to identify themselves as people exempt from VAT and alcohol and fuel duties? Or maybe sew badges in their coats?
You could have a negative income tax band at the bottom.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
Jo Swinson's accent is a bit odd because it sounds like a mixture of Glasgow and Bristol. Her husband was MP for Chippenham between 2010 and 2015 so perhaps she was living in that area for a few years and picked it up.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
Because you said "If you don't pay any tax." Of course, if you'd said "If you don't pay the tax that's being cut," there would have been no argument.
The poor pay a lot of tax, particularly as a percentage of income.
I will endeavor to be more precise in the future, but I thought that was implied because I was talking specifically about the effects of those taxes.
No problem. Always happy to help - in this case by clarifying that you're against these proposals because they're regressive tax cuts for the rich.
And how would you cut taxes so that they only benefit the lowest earners who don't pay any income taxes at the moment? Give them poor people cards to identify themselves as people exempt from VAT and alcohol and fuel duties? Or maybe sew badges in their coats?
You could have a negative income tax band at the bottom.
Yep - & implemented properly so that the single man and woman can benefit and not just hard working families
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
Because you said "If you don't pay any tax." Of course, if you'd said "If you don't pay the tax that's being cut," there would have been no argument.
The poor pay a lot of tax, particularly as a percentage of income.
I will endeavor to be more precise in the future, but I thought that was implied because I was talking specifically about the effects of those taxes.
No problem. Always happy to help - in this case by clarifying that you're against these proposals because they're regressive tax cuts for the rich.
And how would you cut taxes so that they only benefit the lowest earners who don't pay any income taxes at the moment? Give them poor people cards to identify themselves as people exempt from VAT and alcohol and fuel duties? Or maybe sew badges in their coats?
You could have a negative income tax band at the bottom.
Yep - & implemented properly so that the single man and woman can benefit and not just hard working families
Bloody hard working families, the scourge of modern Britain.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"All eventualities". Are you sure?
PM Swinson?
I've even got that covered.
Jo Swinson putting the WIN in Swinson.
What about Con gain Bolsover?
It's a beastly night for the Beast of Bolsover.
After a beastly night for Labour, its over for the Beast of Bolsover.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
What about a good night for BJ? Have any of those coming?
Did you see the talking points Momentum were distributing to volunteers. Apparently if Corbyn's anti-Semitism comes up they should just say "please know if I believed he was anti-Semitic I wouldn't be in the party". Ah, so we should just trust the word of the cult member. That's alright then.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
What about a good night for BJ? Have any of those coming?
I do.
Some of you might find this hard to swallow but BJ is very good.
Did you see the talking points Momentum were distributing to volunteers. Apparently if Corbyn's anti-Semitism comes up they should just say "please know if I believed he was anti-Semitic I wouldn't be in the party". Ah, so we should just trust the word of the cult member. That's alright then.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
What about a good night for BJ? Have any of those coming?
Corbyn chokes after BJ surge. Swinson mopping up remainers.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
What about a good night for BJ? Have any of those coming?
Corbyn chokes after BJ surge. Swinson mopping up remainers.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
What about a good night for BJ? Have any of those coming?
Corbyn chokes after BJ surge. Swinson mopping up remainers.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
What about a good night for BJ? Have any of those coming?
Corbyn chokes after BJ surge. Swinson mopping up remainers.
BJ penetrates deep into Labour
DUP reject BJ offer as not firm enough to satisfy them. Tory members deflated.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"BJ left with egg on his face"
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
I've got a few more but they will have to wait until after the lagershed.
What about a good night for BJ? Have any of those coming?
Corbyn chokes after BJ surge. Swinson mopping up remainers.
BJ penetrates deep into Labour
BJ goes wrong and ends up spaffing all over the electorate’s face in frustration.
A right old faff of a day. Starts off 6am start heading from Teesside to Excel in London. Get as far as Rotherham, off the motorway to collect McDonalds (I know, I know...) and instead collect some kid driving a Fiesta who managed to cut at 90 degrees through a line of traffic to enter a driveway not realising there are two lanes. He didn't see me, I saw him but nowhere to go, classic low speed T-Bone as my braking Volvo hit his nearside front wheel square on.
He's fine. I'm fine. My car needs new bumper, grille etc but drove back to Teesside after application of Gaffer Tape. His 10 year old Fezzer with a wheel at an entertaining angle and crunched wind and door probably a write off. He even admitted 100% liability to his insurers when reporting it. Simples!
Except for the afternoon then spent on the phone to various people some repeatedly. And this is with Volvo claim handling it between my insurer and his. If this is the faff required for a fairly straightforward car driveable but needs proffered hire replacement and a fix, and there is no insurance argument because liability admitted, I would hate to think how bloody long it would take with a worse prang. Or multiple cars and insurers.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"All eventualities". Are you sure?
PM Swinson?
I've even got that covered.
Jo Swinson putting the WIN in Swinson.
What about Con gain Bolsover?
It's a beastly night for the Beast of Bolsover.
Beast Skinned in Bolsover?
Likely according to Phil's model for 70% leave voting Bolsolver based on late October YouGov polling: Con 16,558, Lab 11,638, LD 5,391, BXT 8,252, Green 2,434.
Not so likely with PP who have Labour 4/6 on, Con 11/10.
Talking of Hodge Hill, it is anticipated to be Labour's safest* seat in the whole of the UK at the election according to Electoral Calculus. It borders Meriden which is reckoned to be the Tories' 55th safest seat in the country.
Probably the most extreme example of contiguous safe seats for two neighbouring parties, certainly the big two ?
A right old faff of a day. Starts off 6am start heading from Teesside to Excel in London. Get as far as Rotherham, off the motorway to collect McDonalds (I know, I know...) and instead collect some kid driving a Fiesta who managed to cut at 90 degrees through a line of traffic to enter a driveway not realising there are two lanes. He didn't see me, I saw him but nowhere to go, classic low speed T-Bone as my braking Volvo hit his nearside front wheel square on.
He's fine. I'm fine. My car needs new bumper, grille etc but drove back to Teesside after application of Gaffer Tape. His 10 year old Fezzer with a wheel at an entertaining angle and crunched wind and door probably a write off. He even admitted 100% liability to his insurers when reporting it. Simples!
Except for the afternoon then spent on the phone to various people some repeatedly. And this is with Volvo claim handling it between my insurer and his. If this is the faff required for a fairly straightforward car driveable but needs proffered hire replacement and a fix, and there is no insurance argument because liability admitted, I would hate to think how bloody long it would take with a worse prang. Or multiple cars and insurers.
At least everyone is healthy. That's the main thing!
Hope it's not too much of a problem for you going forwards.
A right old faff of a day. Starts off 6am start heading from Teesside to Excel in London. Get as far as Rotherham, off the motorway to collect McDonalds (I know, I know...) and instead collect some kid driving a Fiesta who managed to cut at 90 degrees through a line of traffic to enter a driveway not realising there are two lanes. He didn't see me, I saw him but nowhere to go, classic low speed T-Bone as my braking Volvo hit his nearside front wheel square on.
He's fine. I'm fine. My car needs new bumper, grille etc but drove back to Teesside after application of Gaffer Tape. His 10 year old Fezzer with a wheel at an entertaining angle and crunched wind and door probably a write off. He even admitted 100% liability to his insurers when reporting it. Simples!
Except for the afternoon then spent on the phone to various people some repeatedly. And this is with Volvo claim handling it between my insurer and his. If this is the faff required for a fairly straightforward car driveable but needs proffered hire replacement and a fix, and there is no insurance argument because liability admitted, I would hate to think how bloody long it would take with a worse prang. Or multiple cars and insurers.
They all play the same shitty game. I had a 14 page (really!!) form to claim for a £130 pushchair that easyjet trashed, with a lot of information required that you'd only think to gather if you knew what arseholes insurance companies are.
I came very close to just binning it, but was sufficiently stubborn to grind through the whole unnecessarily painful process. I'm sure many others would simply fold.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"All eventualities". Are you sure?
PM Swinson?
I've even got that covered.
Jo Swinson putting the WIN in Swinson.
What about Con gain Bolsover?
It's a beastly night for the Beast of Bolsover.
Beast Skinned in Bolsover?
Likely according to Phil's model for 70% leave voting Bolsolver based on late October YouGov polling: Con 16,558, Lab 11,638, LD 5,391, BXT 8,252, Green 2,434.
Not so likely with PP who have Labour 4/6 on, Con 11/10.
I'm thinking PP are right but I would love to be "up for Bolsover". His face would be a classic.
Talking of Hodge Hill, it is anticipated to be Labour's safest* seat in the whole of the UK at the election according to Electoral Calculus. It borders Meriden which is reckoned to be the Tories' 55th safest seat in the country.
Probably the most extreme example of contiguous safe seats for two neighbouring parties, certainly the big two ?
* Exclude the sui generis Chorley seat
I think in 1997 or 2001 you saw something similar with Sedgefield and Richmond.
Talking of Hodge Hill, it is anticipated to be Labour's safest* seat in the whole of the UK at the election according to Electoral Calculus. It borders Meriden which is reckoned to be the Tories' 55th safest seat in the country.
Probably the most extreme example of contiguous safe seats for two neighbouring parties, certainly the big two ?
* Exclude the sui generis Chorley seat
I think in 1997 or 2001 you saw something similar with Sedgefield and Richmond.
Remarkable to think Sedgefield is considered a possible swing seat this year.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"All eventualities". Are you sure?
PM Swinson?
I've even got that covered.
Jo Swinson putting the WIN in Swinson.
What about Con gain Bolsover?
It's a beastly night for the Beast of Bolsover.
Beast Skinned in Bolsover?
Likely according to Phil's model for 70% leave voting Bolsolver based on late October YouGov polling: Con 16,558, Lab 11,638, LD 5,391, BXT 8,252, Green 2,434.
Not so likely with PP who have Labour 4/6 on, Con 11/10.
Not aimed at you, but this where some models go wrong, I still think the Beast will have a personal vote that keeps him safe whilst others with larger majorities lose.
I would point out the Alliance Party are fully behind the Boris Deal as it avoids a hard border in Ireland and as the median voter in Northern Ireland increasingly votes Alliance that is great news for Boris and the Union, especially if the Alliance win North Down or Belfast North or South
Does anyone know how increasing the national insurance threshold will affect entitlement to state pension? Potentially you could have people not paying any national insurance through their employment, and not having their record maintained through benefits and so they wouldn't build up the years to qualify for the full state pension.
Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority
A right old faff of a day. Starts off 6am start heading from Teesside to Excel in London. Get as far as Rotherham, off the motorway to collect McDonalds (I know, I know...) and instead collect some kid driving a Fiesta who managed to cut at 90 degrees through a line of traffic to enter a driveway not realising there are two lanes. He didn't see me, I saw him but nowhere to go, classic low speed T-Bone as my braking Volvo hit his nearside front wheel square on.
He's fine. I'm fine. My car needs new bumper, grille etc but drove back to Teesside after application of Gaffer Tape. His 10 year old Fezzer with a wheel at an entertaining angle and crunched wind and door probably a write off. He even admitted 100% liability to his insurers when reporting it. Simples!
Except for the afternoon then spent on the phone to various people some repeatedly. And this is with Volvo claim handling it between my insurer and his. If this is the faff required for a fairly straightforward car driveable but needs proffered hire replacement and a fix, and there is no insurance argument because liability admitted, I would hate to think how bloody long it would take with a worse prang. Or multiple cars and insurers.
They all play the same shitty game. I had a 14 page (really!!) form to claim for a £130 pushchair that easyjet trashed, with a lot of information required that you'd only think to gather if you knew what arseholes insurance companies are.
I came very close to just binning it, but was sufficiently stubborn to grind through the whole unnecessarily painful process. I'm sure many others would simply fold.
Just think of how bad it can get with medical insurance claims with insurance companies second-guessing the physicians' judgment at to what procedures were necessary.
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"All eventualities". Are you sure?
PM Swinson?
I've even got that covered.
Jo Swinson putting the WIN in Swinson.
What about Con gain Bolsover?
It's a beastly night for the Beast of Bolsover.
Beast Skinned in Bolsover?
Likely according to Phil's model for 70% leave voting Bolsolver based on late October YouGov polling: Con 16,558, Lab 11,638, LD 5,391, BXT 8,252, Green 2,434.
Not so likely with PP who have Labour 4/6 on, Con 11/10.
I'm thinking PP are right but I would love to be "up for Bolsover". His face would be a classic.
Would likely make Peter Bottomley the father of the house
Talking of Hodge Hill, it is anticipated to be Labour's safest* seat in the whole of the UK at the election according to Electoral Calculus. It borders Meriden which is reckoned to be the Tories' 55th safest seat in the country.
Probably the most extreme example of contiguous safe seats for two neighbouring parties, certainly the big two ?
* Exclude the sui generis Chorley seat
Kind of on topic, Belfast West (Sinn Fein majority 53.3%) is adjacent to Lagan Valley (DUP majority 42.7%). The aggregate percentage majority is not as high as Hodge Hill and Meriden, but both percentage majorities are higher than Meriden's.
I would point out the Alliance Party are fully behind the Boris Deal as it avoids a hard border in Ireland and as the median voter in Northern Ireland increasingly votes Alliance that is great news for Boris and the Union, especially if the Alliance win North Down or Belfast North or South
I assumed that the Alliance party where (still) anti Brexit?
So, will Boris have frittered away all of his mahoosive lead by the time of the final debate?
Someone needs to tell him he actually needs to be good if he wants to win, not decidedly average.
I do think his biggest problem is lack of seriousness. It can work for him too of course - it's the essence of his persona - but it's also a negative. He does not believe in much beyond his brand and you can sense this when he speaks. It's all a bit of a laugh for him. There's no depth. There's nothing much there beneath the act. Many people are OK with that - really like him for it even - but plenty more are not.
Does anyone know how increasing the national insurance threshold will affect entitlement to state pension? Potentially you could have people not paying any national insurance through their employment, and not having their record maintained through benefits and so they wouldn't build up the years to qualify for the full state pension.
i think you get a credit via Working Tax Credit system equivalent to someone on the lowest earning limit.
I would point out the Alliance Party are fully behind the Boris Deal as it avoids a hard border in Ireland and as the median voter in Northern Ireland increasingly votes Alliance that is great news for Boris and the Union, especially if the Alliance win North Down or Belfast North or South
I assumed that the Alliance party where (still) anti Brexit?
No they back the Boris Deal and the Withdrawal Agreement but oppose No Deal and a hard border in Ireland, it is Sinn Fein and the SDLP most anti Brexit
Does anyone know how increasing the national insurance threshold will affect entitlement to state pension? Potentially you could have people not paying any national insurance through their employment, and not having their record maintained through benefits and so they wouldn't build up the years to qualify for the full state pension.
All workers are now enrolled in workplace pensions, those contributions would be recorded as credits
I'll let you in to a little secret, I'm editing PB on election night for the third general election in a row.
I do placeholder threads a few hours beforehand.
If I accidentally publish one of them I've not stuffed the ballot boxes beforehand.
But you admit you could if you wanted to! What is the every signal that you have?
I usually have a set of planned jokes and puns for all eventualities.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
"All eventualities". Are you sure?
PM Swinson?
I've even got that covered.
Jo Swinson putting the WIN in Swinson.
What about Con gain Bolsover?
It's a beastly night for the Beast of Bolsover.
Beast Skinned in Bolsover?
Likely according to Phil's model for 70% leave voting Bolsolver based on late October YouGov polling: Con 16,558, Lab 11,638, LD 5,391, BXT 8,252, Green 2,434.
Not so likely with PP who have Labour 4/6 on, Con 11/10.
Not aimed at you, but this where some models go wrong, I still think the Beast will have a personal vote that keeps him safe whilst others with larger majorities lose.
Any personal vote will be well in the base by now.
Does anyone know how increasing the national insurance threshold will affect entitlement to state pension? Potentially you could have people not paying any national insurance through their employment, and not having their record maintained through benefits and so they wouldn't build up the years to qualify for the full state pension.
i think you get a credit via Working Tax Credit system equivalent to someone on the lowest earning limit.
but check if this is important to you
There's 2 starting levels of NI - the one where you get credit for the state pension and one where you actually start paying employee NI. Raise the latter and not the former and job done - well at least you are back to how it works now. There's still the problem for those who earn below the lower threshold....
Does anyone know how increasing the national insurance threshold will affect entitlement to state pension? Potentially you could have people not paying any national insurance through their employment, and not having their record maintained through benefits and so they wouldn't build up the years to qualify for the full state pension.
i think you get a credit via Working Tax Credit system equivalent to someone on the lowest earning limit.
but check if this is important to you
There's 2 starting levels of NI - the one where you get credit for the state pension and one where you actually start paying employee NI. Raise the latter and not the former and job done - well at least you are back to how it works now. There's still the problem for those who earn below the lower threshold....
If you earn below the lower threshold then you are probably entitled to WTC is how I understand it.
Comments
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-councillor-suspended-after-sharing-20922601
That said since the server upgrade we've had two general elections, an American Presidential election, an EU Referendum, and an IndyRef, and we've coped with the traffic.
*innocent face*
The only question is which one was the teacher and which the TA?
Disqus decided to schedule a server upgrade for 11pm on the 6th of November 2012, it was expected people would not be able to comment for between 2 and 4 hours.
Fortunately the Telegraph and other news organisations that used Disqus then put a stop to that.
I mean it was only going to clash with the US Presidential election.
For example in 2015 in the event of a SNP tsunami I had the following puns planned 'It's Ajockalypse Now for Labour' and 'Scötterdämmerung for Labour'.
For 2019 if Boris Johnson fails to deliver the headlines will be 'BJ sucks' or 'Blow for BJ'
The minimum wage for over 25s (living wage) is £8.21 per hour. 30 hours per week at £8.21 per hour takes you to £12.8k per annum. 20 hours per week at £8.21 takes you to £8.5k per annum.
If someone is currently working at 20 hours per week and is worried about the impact on taxes and the withdrawal of benefits and this change encourages them to increase to working 30 hour per week then theoretically they would have been classed as not gaining from this change previously but the reality is they gain more than anyone else.
That is why some tax stats never add up, because they forget that changing tax rates and thresholds changes behaviour.
PM Swinson?
Jo Swinson putting the WIN in Swinson.
Come the Glorious Day you will be forced to shop in Lidl
"BJ will find this hard to swallow"
At 11:30 you could say that the results are now dribbling in.
I'll stop now.
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1197199002141376513
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1197199468090855426
Sounds about right from my mini poll last night.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-debate-jeremy-corbyn-won-lost-boris-johnson-poll-brexit-yougov-a9210571.html
https://twitter.com/concretemilk/status/1197134342830641153
Some of you might find this hard to swallow but BJ is very good.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1197203137779642368
"Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn "are living in a fantasy land", Ms Swinson continues."
Prime Minister Jo Swinson accuses other leaders of living in a fantasy land.
Someone needs to tell him he actually needs to be good if he wants to win, not decidedly average.
A Labour bar chart tweet.
Right!!
He's fine. I'm fine. My car needs new bumper, grille etc but drove back to Teesside after application of Gaffer Tape. His 10 year old Fezzer with a wheel at an entertaining angle and crunched wind and door probably a write off. He even admitted 100% liability to his insurers when reporting it. Simples!
Except for the afternoon then spent on the phone to various people some repeatedly. And this is with Volvo claim handling it between my insurer and his. If this is the faff required for a fairly straightforward car driveable but needs proffered hire replacement and a fix, and there is no insurance argument because liability admitted, I would hate to think how bloody long it would take with a worse prang. Or multiple cars and insurers.
Likely according to Phil's model for 70% leave voting Bolsolver based on late October YouGov polling:
Con 16,558,
Lab 11,638,
LD 5,391,
BXT 8,252,
Green 2,434.
Not so likely with PP who have Labour 4/6 on, Con 11/10.
It borders Meriden which is reckoned to be the Tories' 55th safest seat in the country.
Probably the most extreme example of contiguous safe seats for two neighbouring parties, certainly the big two ?
* Exclude the sui generis Chorley seat
Hope it's not too much of a problem for you going forwards.
I came very close to just binning it, but was sufficiently stubborn to grind through the whole unnecessarily painful process. I'm sure many others would simply fold.
For all his Iowamentum, Boot egde is struggling to find many or even any black voters to his cause.
but check if this is important to you
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1195848/brexit-news-latest-boris-johnson-deal-dup-northern-ireland-backstop-alliance-sinn-fein