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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    "And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed."

    ...even if that means trashing a sensible policy. Hmmmm.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    Isn’t it set to the same threshold as well?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Point of order. If Boris gets his Brexit deal through, the northern Irish will have a remarkably good deal. Members of the single market but also the uk. It’s likely that businesses will flock there to take advantage.

    They’d be mad to jeopardise this with a Border Poll which might cause renewed violence. Brexit a la Boris probably makes the union with Ulster a bit stronger, paradoxically
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JFC, Republican Council tried to imply Sondland's testimony was lacking as Sondland was not reading from his contemporary notes.

    Sondland points out the State Department has blocked him from using his notes.

    It's like they are deliberately botching it at this point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    "And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed."

    ...even if that means trashing a sensible policy. Hmmmm.
    Would be karmic after the way they behaved in 2017 if that happened.

    Fortunately Labour have no sensible policies so it seems most unlikely to happen.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.

    Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.

    Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
    You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.

    Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
    Pretty much every Remainer I know voted thus because they were worried about the effect of Brexit on their house value (and hence ability to grow their family and move up the housing ladder) or the impact on their pension (and, as a result, their ability to pass assets on to their children).

    I don't really see why that's selfish, anyway? Everyone gets one vote, and casts it according to what they think is best for them. Then we agree as a country to proceed with what's best for the majority. I would venture that the mistake some on the Remain side made, and are still making, is to think they know best about what people in other parts of the country should want.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    "And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed."

    ...even if that means trashing a sensible policy. Hmmmm.
    Yes. I'm sorry, but this is a question of priorities. I wish it wasn't - if there were a sensible and non-toxic left-of-centre Labour Party to vote for right now then things would be very different and, indeed, it might very well be winning - but it is. The Revolutionary Friends of Hamas must be kept as far away from power as possible.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Endillion said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.

    Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.

    Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
    You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.

    Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
    There's nothing wrong with voting for selfish reasons, and arguably it's the best method. If you don't defend yourself, who will?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Byronic said:

    Point of order. If Boris gets his Brexit deal through, the northern Irish will have a remarkably good deal. Members of the single market but also the uk. It’s likely that businesses will flock there to take advantage.

    They’d be mad to jeopardise this with a Border Poll which might cause renewed violence. Brexit a la Boris probably makes the union with Ulster a bit stronger, paradoxically

    Agreed, it was only ever No Deal and a hard border in Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland which really threatened the Union as Scottish and Northern Irish polls show
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    First leaflet from Labour landed on the doorstep, plenty of photos of the candidate, a party whip, now sitting on a huge majority. No references to Corbyn at all.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    Isn’t it set to the same threshold as well?
    Not sure. If it has made it into the Labour manifesto then I'm sure that this information will soon be made widely known.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    I see the Earl of Inverness is taking a back seat. I wonder how long it will be until he takes a front seat on a plane to the Land of Uncle Sam! Unfortunately for him there will be little sympathy for him across the UK given his behaviour in recent years, associating with rich sons of dubious fathers from the Middle East and former Soviet states.

    On the election, given that the postal votes will be starting to drop on doorsteps in the coming days, do most PBers agree that if Labour hasn't started to close the gap in the polls by the time of the Sunday papers this weekend, the chances of stopping a Tory majority are probably gone and it is then just a matter of whether Boris and chums can avoid dropping a clanger in the remaining 2 weeks which will determine how far north of 325 seats we see at 10pm on 12th December in the exit poll.

    Postals are an important but still minor part of the vote. Still time for Boris to drop a real bollock until 12th. But it would have to be a bull-sized bollock to shift votes bigly.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    "And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed."

    ...even if that means trashing a sensible policy. Hmmmm.
    Would be karmic after the way they behaved in 2017 if that happened.

    Fortunately Labour have no sensible policies so it seems most unlikely to happen.
    The one sensible policy in the 2017 Tory manifesto was the Social Care policy. I'd have voted for that one.

    How are we ever going to address the Social Care issues as a country if we don't collectively face into it at some point?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    If there is one policy that would gift the Tories the election, this policy by Labour would be it, it would go down like a lead balloon with swing voters and be received at least as badly as the dementia tax
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    HYUFD said:
    Bloody hell, how young is that child?!
  • Byronic said:

    Point of order. If Boris gets his Brexit deal through, the northern Irish will have a remarkably good deal. Members of the single market but also the uk. It’s likely that businesses will flock there to take advantage.

    They’d be mad to jeopardise this with a Border Poll which might cause renewed violence. Brexit a la Boris probably makes the union with Ulster a bit stronger, paradoxically

    "It’s likely that businesses will flock there to take advantage."

    Yes, that's what I've been thinking.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Just watched Jo Swinson interviewed by Laura. I think she comes across well. Tricky spot for the Lib Dems, to pick up Tory votes without admitting they will, at some level, need to work with Corbyn to get ref 2.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Byronic said:

    Point of order. If Boris gets his Brexit deal through, the northern Irish will have a remarkably good deal. Members of the single market but also the uk. It’s likely that businesses will flock there to take advantage.

    They’d be mad to jeopardise this with a Border Poll which might cause renewed violence. Brexit a la Boris probably makes the union with Ulster a bit stronger, paradoxically

    I've heard that Baron Killyleagh, currently unemployed, might be parachuted in as a trade envoy to boost commerce in Antrim and the other 5 counties.

    It's win win.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Drutt said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    CGT allowance scrapped sounds like massive increase in paperwork if there are no new exemptions for low amounts.
    Apparently you'd get a joint CA and income tax allowance. I can't imagine it results in a smaller paperwork burden either.
    It would be a pain in the arse. and likely lead to people not bothering to declare.
    Total abolition of CGT allowance would indeed be a nightmare.
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority

    Spaffing money on tax cuts when Public Services are in such a state
    Priceless ... only Santa Grandpa can offer free stuff and bribes.
    Lab proposals fiscally neutral as you will see tomorrow.

    Con £11bn MMT so far.
    Yes, jeremy told us last night the 4 day week will be funded by 'increased productivity'
    Fucking priceless.
    When the NHS was founded it was claimed the cost would come down as people got more healthy....
    I recently spent some time at a hospital. and was amazed that it had a Subway take away in the food hall. How can a "Health Service" provide food that is so unhealthy? If it were genuine interested in the health of the nation, it should take a more holistic approach.
    How dare adults make choices. What is it with people wanting to boss people around?

    The food you need to eat when ill and recovering is quite different to when you are well. A high carb high protein meal like what you would get from Subway would be perfect.
    It is just privatisation. Concessions are leased out to whoever pays. Southampton General Hospital has a concession rented out to the ambulance chasers...
    Wetherspoons in hospitals, when?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.

    Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.

    Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
    You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.

    Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
    Pretty much every Remainer I know voted thus because they were worried about the effect of Brexit on their house value (and hence ability to grow their family and move up the housing ladder) or the impact on their pension (and, as a result, their ability to pass assets on to their children).

    I don't really see why that's selfish, anyway? Everyone gets one vote, and casts it according to what they think is best for them. Then we agree as a country to proceed with what's best for the majority. I would venture that the mistake some on the Remain side made, and are still making, is to think they know best about what people in other parts of the country should want.
    You seem to live in a world where everyone is looking out for themselves and their offspring, and fuck the rest.

    You may be surprise to know that there are plenty of people for whom altruism is not a dirty word.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    I feel more confident people will have read the LD manifesto than the Green one yesterday

    First Impressions
    100 pages, even chunkier than the Green Party one. Very clear title. No document bookmarking like the Green one unfortunately, and 9 sections instead of 5. Foreword talks about no limits to LD ambitions, a marked contrast to last time when it was admitting they wanted to replace Labour as main opposition.

    £50bn Remain bonus and economy 2% larger by 2024-25. Focus on schools, environment, mental health. Sections having narrative, then top priorities then detail is decent.

    Stop Brexit
    Revoke and if not a people’s vote, obviously.

    EU citizens to get the vote only if they have lived in the UK 5+ years

    This is more like an essay than a manifesto section, any pledges are lost in the paragraphs, it’s a series of arguments not promises.

    Our plan for a stronger economy
    Finally bringing in some bullet points.

    Skills wallet, wellbeing budget, increased infrastructure

    What does ‘give local authorities and regions the power to make decisions about their area’ mean? Could be anything.

    DCMS to become the DCMST – for Tourism.

    Committing to HS2. 300,000 homes a year by 2024, including 100,000 social homes. Greens were saying 100,000 right away.

    Increase research and dev spending to 3% of GDP. What is it now? But also sets a lower target of 2.4% no later than 2027. Confused?

    Support growth in the video game industry, among others.

    ‘Develop a mechanism to allow the public to share in the profits made by tech companies in the use of their data’ – I like money, a bit more detail on this would be nice.

    Scrapping rule that allows developers to convert offices and shops into residential properties without planning permission.

    This section feels a little woolly.

    ‘Labour and the Conservatives are looking to the past for answers that will not work today’. Good line, needed more emphasis across the document really.

    20% corporation tax. 4 less than Green IIRC.

    Replace business rates in England with Commercial Landowner Levy based solely on the land value of commercial sites. Less detail than Greens here.

    Scrap marriage tax allowance.

    Worker protection enforcement authority to protect those in precarious work.

    Flexible working open to all from day one, unless significant business reasons that is not possible.

    Strengthen ability of unions to represent workers effectively – how? Right of access to workplaces, but nothing else mentioned.

    Skills wallet detail, 10k for every adult to spend on education and training. Sounds nice, although how to administer seems potentially problematic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    "And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed."

    ...even if that means trashing a sensible policy. Hmmmm.
    Would be karmic after the way they behaved in 2017 if that happened.

    Fortunately Labour have no sensible policies so it seems most unlikely to happen.
    The one sensible policy in the 2017 Tory manifesto was the Social Care policy. I'd have voted for that one.

    How are we ever going to address the Social Care issues as a country if we don't collectively face into it at some point?
    That’s what I meant.

    But Labour haven’t even hinted at one sensible policy yet. So far they come across as Narendra Modi or Hugo Chavez on speed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Endillion said:

    Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.

    I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.

    In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.

    Dudley for Dudley will never work

    Endillion said:

    Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.

    I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.

    In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.

    Dudley for Dudley will never work
    I love nominative determinism

    My favourite -
    Dr. Richard Chopp Leading urologist specialising in vasectomies
    Group CEO of Carnival UK is Mr Kruse.
  • Foxy said:

    Endillion said:

    Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.

    I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.

    In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.

    Dudley for Dudley will never work

    Endillion said:

    Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.

    I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.

    In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.

    Dudley for Dudley will never work
    I love nominative determinism

    My favourite -
    Dr. Richard Chopp Leading urologist specialising in vasectomies
    I'd avoid Dr O. M. Bogus - seen in a suburb of Stuttgart in the mid 1980s.
    I went to medical school with Sandra De'Ath. Not sure where she works now.
    I knew a guy called 'Death' (no apostrophe here).
    Shame he didn't stand for election ('Vote for Death' and 'Death to The Council' would have looked good on the posters).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    kle4 said:

    I feel more confident people will have read the LD manifesto than the Green one yesterday

    First Impressions
    100 pages, even chunkier than the Green Party one. Very clear title. No document bookmarking like the Green one unfortunately, and 9 sections instead of 5. Foreword talks about no limits to LD ambitions, a marked contrast to last time when it was admitting they wanted to replace Labour as main opposition.

    £50bn Remain bonus and economy 2% larger by 2024-25. Focus on schools, environment, mental health. Sections having narrative, then top priorities then detail is decent.

    Stop Brexit
    Revoke and if not a people’s vote, obviously.

    EU citizens to get the vote only if they have lived in the UK 5+ years

    This is more like an essay than a manifesto section, any pledges are lost in the paragraphs, it’s a series of arguments not promises.

    Our plan for a stronger economy
    Finally bringing in some bullet points.

    Skills wallet, wellbeing budget, increased infrastructure

    What does ‘give local authorities and regions the power to make decisions about their area’ mean? Could be anything.

    DCMS to become the DCMST – for Tourism.

    Committing to HS2. 300,000 homes a year by 2024, including 100,000 social homes. Greens were saying 100,000 right away.

    Increase research and dev spending to 3% of GDP. What is it now? But also sets a lower target of 2.4% no later than 2027. Confused?

    Support growth in the video game industry, among others.

    ‘Develop a mechanism to allow the public to share in the profits made by tech companies in the use of their data’ – I like money, a bit more detail on this would be nice.

    Scrapping rule that allows developers to convert offices and shops into residential properties without planning permission.

    This section feels a little woolly.

    ‘Labour and the Conservatives are looking to the past for answers that will not work today’. Good line, needed more emphasis across the document really.

    20% corporation tax. 4 less than Green IIRC.

    Replace business rates in England with Commercial Landowner Levy based solely on the land value of commercial sites. Less detail than Greens here.

    Scrap marriage tax allowance.

    Worker protection enforcement authority to protect those in precarious work.

    Flexible working open to all from day one, unless significant business reasons that is not possible.

    Strengthen ability of unions to represent workers effectively – how? Right of access to workplaces, but nothing else mentioned.

    Skills wallet detail, 10k for every adult to spend on education and training. Sounds nice, although how to administer seems potentially problematic.

    Nothing on PR?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:
    To missed the best result, Cory Booker beating Trump by 45 to 44.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    "And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed."

    ...even if that means trashing a sensible policy. Hmmmm.
    Would be karmic after the way they behaved in 2017 if that happened.

    Fortunately Labour have no sensible policies so it seems most unlikely to happen.
    The one sensible policy in the 2017 Tory manifesto was the Social Care policy. I'd have voted for that one.

    How are we ever going to address the Social Care issues as a country if we don't collectively face into it at some point?
    Quite the contrary, the 2017 social care policy was a disgrace and I could barely even bring myself to canvass after it and I know many Tory activists felt the same.

    Taking the family home is not an option beyond residential care where it already applies.

    Longer term some combination of National Insurance an annuities can pay for increased social care costs but only with a cross party royal commission
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    viewcode said:

    Endillion said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.

    Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.

    Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
    You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.

    Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
    There's nothing wrong with voting for selfish reasons, and arguably it's the best method. If you don't defend yourself, who will?
    This is true. I voted Leave in the referendum out of moral conviction about Parliamentary sovereignty. If we do ever have a second referendum, I would probably vote Remain now, not because my original decision was wrong from a philosophical standpoint but because I'm one of the winners from the current settlement. And voting out of principle when voting out of selfishness is the better choice for you and your own family is, arguably, a serious mistake.

    That much said, keeping Labour out of Downing Street is the first imperative, and much more important than Brexit one way or the other. If I so happened to live in a Con/Lab marginal rather than a Con safe seat then I would definitely vote Tory, regardless of their EU policy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    LD manifesto part 2
    Our plan for better education and skills
    Free childcare for all aged 2-4. 35 hrs a week. 48 weeks a year.

    Introduce baby boxes. Triple the early years pupil premium.

    20,000 teachers and reduce class sizes to 2015 levels.

    End politically motivated changes in curriculum by making body of experts do it - But who will appoint them?

    Scrapping SATs and have formal moderated teacher assessment – how will they do that?

    Replacing Ofsted with HM Inspector of Schools

    Starting teacher salary to 30k, Stat duty to promote wellbeing in schools, gender neutral school uniforms

    Safe standing at football clubs

    Our plan for a green society and green economy

    Big push saying Labour and Conservatives are economically illiterate and morally indefensible.

    Insulate all homes by 2030

    80% electricity from renewables. Ban fracking for good. Electrifying railways and ‘all’ new cars are electric by 2030. That seems very ambitious.

    Department of climate change – why is new departments always the answer?

    Higher green criteria in public procurement policy

    Stat waste recycling target of 70%

    Reform flight taxation to focuson those who fly the most, while reducing the costs for those who fly less often – seems unnecessarily convoluted.

    Opposing all airport expansion, light rail and tram schemes wanted

    Freeze rail fairs for length of the parliament, Extend network, convert it to ultra low emission tech, support HS2, allow public sector companies to bid for rail franchises, new agency, more proactive in sacking operators (Odd inclusion)

    Animal sentience enshrined in law -Greens had this too

    Our plan for health and social care


    7bn a year from 1p on income tax – I think this was in the last manifesto too, at least they are explaining the increase.

    Cross party health and social convention – but I thought working with other parties was not a good thing anymore, as coalitions are always ruled out.

    Long section on mental health, obviously a major theme.

    Ban credit cards for gambling.

    Bit waffly in this section.

    A lot of references to do x as recommended by y – when I don’t know who or what y is.

    Legislate for right to unpolluted air.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited November 2019
    Endillion said:

    Re: the NI thing. Some final salary pension schemes base "pensionable" earnings on salary minus the lower NI threshold. A rise in the NI threshold is going to reduce their pensions, isn't it?

    Isn't it just swings and roundabouts? They save tax now and get hit by it later, which if they're over the lifetime cap could be a net win.

    There may not be enough DB schemes still open to accruals to matter, anyway. Anyone lucky enough to still be in a private sector one can probably take the hit.
    It might matter for the civil service schemes, but I don't know enough about how they work to comment. Would (I guess) only affect average salary schemes prospectively, not retrospectively.

    I thought that was no longer the case, following pension reform, with people who were previously opted out receiving pro-rate reductions in their NI credits - a reduction they can make good by working longer or paying for any unworked years?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:
    To missed the best result, Cory Booker beating Trump by 45 to 44.
    Booker surge if he is the only Democrat beating Trump in a key swing state?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.

    Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.

    Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
    You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.

    Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
    Pretty much every Remainer I know voted thus because they were worried about the effect of Brexit on their house value (and hence ability to grow their family and move up the housing ladder) or the impact on their pension (and, as a result, their ability to pass assets on to their children).

    I don't really see why that's selfish, anyway? Everyone gets one vote, and casts it according to what they think is best for them. Then we agree as a country to proceed with what's best for the majority. I would venture that the mistake some on the Remain side made, and are still making, is to think they know best about what people in other parts of the country should want.
    Well you obviously don’t know many remainders I voted remain because it was best for the UK in total, how that best was spent was up to our politicians. Remainders voted remain because they believed that unity was strength and had more impact on the world stage. They voted remain because it was far better to be on the inside influencing decision rather than having to take what they decided. They voted remain because the lies of the leave campaign were beyond belief and couldn’t believe that, as it turned out, people still believed the EU had banned bendy bananas and confers. Not once did personal financial position enter the equation it was a stupid idiotic decision which will go down in history as the biggest act of collective lunacy ever.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    kle4 said:

    LD manifesto part 2
    Our plan for better education and skills
    Free childcare for all aged 2-4. 35 hrs a week. 48 weeks a year.

    Introduce baby boxes. Triple the early years pupil premium.

    20,000 teachers and reduce class sizes to 2015 levels.

    End politically motivated changes in curriculum by making body of experts do it - But who will appoint them?

    Scrapping SATs and have formal moderated teacher assessment – how will they do that?

    Replacing Ofsted with HM Inspector of Schools

    Starting teacher salary to 30k, Stat duty to promote wellbeing in schools, gender neutral school uniforms

    Safe standing at football clubs

    Our plan for a green society and green economy

    Big push saying Labour and Conservatives are economically illiterate and morally indefensible.

    Insulate all homes by 2030

    80% electricity from renewables. Ban fracking for good. Electrifying railways and ‘all’ new cars are electric by 2030. That seems very ambitious.

    Department of climate change – why is new departments always the answer?

    Higher green criteria in public procurement policy

    Stat waste recycling target of 70%

    Reform flight taxation to focuson those who fly the most, while reducing the costs for those who fly less often – seems unnecessarily convoluted.

    Opposing all airport expansion, light rail and tram schemes wanted

    Freeze rail fairs for length of the parliament, Extend network, convert it to ultra low emission tech, support HS2, allow public sector companies to bid for rail franchises, new agency, more proactive in sacking operators (Odd inclusion)

    Animal sentience enshrined in law -Greens had this too

    Our plan for health and social care


    7bn a year from 1p on income tax – I think this was in the last manifesto too, at least they are explaining the increase.

    Cross party health and social convention – but I thought working with other parties was not a good thing anymore, as coalitions are always ruled out.

    Long section on mental health, obviously a major theme.

    Ban credit cards for gambling.

    Bit waffly in this section.

    A lot of references to do x as recommended by y – when I don’t know who or what y is.

    Legislate for right to unpolluted air.

    Standing at football stadiums! That's a policy I actually support.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    LD manifesto part 3

    Our plan to build a fairer society


    Wait for first benefit payment 5 days rather than 5 weeks – sounds great, although I don’t think government bureaucracy could do that well. Reform (not abolish) universal credit.

    Provide positive incentives for people to downsize – like what?

    Keeping the triple lock bribe

    Saying women born in 1950s were not properly notified of changes to stage pension age – I think that’s bollocks.

    Affordable housing section seems to contradict earlier session, implying 100,000 each year, rather than each year by 2024.

    All households to have 30mbps accesss

    Reform planning to ensure local infrastructure alongside new homes.

    End disproportionate use of stop and search.

    New online crime agency – like departments, why is a new agency always the answer?

    ‘oppose any laws that unnecessarily erode civil liberties’ ‘resist any attempt to withdraw from ECHR’? I think the manifesto has forgotten it is a plan for a LD government here

    500m to legal aid

    Halt use of facial recognition

    Right to no fault divorce

    Stat paternity leave to six weeks

    Unconscious bias training provision to all members of staff a condition of receipt of public funds – no thanks.

    Develop a plan to tackle BAME inqualities – so I guess they don’t have a plan yet.

    Our plan for better politics

    STR – me likey

    16 year old votes – me no likey

    Reform house of lords with a proper democratic mandate – odd wording, does this mean fully elected?

    Parliament not Queen in council to approve prorogation

    I don’t believe they really will decentralize meaningfully – all parties say it, but don’t trust local government

    Mandating leaders’ debates based on rules produced by ofcom – but if ofcom say it was ok for LDs not to be included this time, I bet that will change.

    Distinct legal jurisdiction for wales.

    Written constitution for a federal UK is mentioned but underplayed, hard to see any detail.

    Our plan for a better world

    Parliamentary vote before military action (except in emergencies or treaty obligation)

    Maintain minimum nuclear deterrent whilse pursuing disarmament – eh? I’m confused.

    Not increasing foreign aid beyond 0.7%

    Lots of stuff that is unattainable waffle about what we’d like to see in the world
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Drutt said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    CGT allowance scrapped sounds like massive increase in paperwork if there are no new exemptions for low amounts.
    Apparently you'd get a joint CA and income tax allowance. I can't imagine it results in a smaller paperwork burden either.
    As long as you dont earn £12k a year you dont have to report anything on capital gains aiui? The vast majority of the country probably only declare a handful of years in their life, the other years they dont even need to track their capital gains as would be clearly under £12k.
    Under these plans, anyone who made any cap gain would have to report and pay if they'd earned 12k that tax year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721



    On the election, given that the postal votes will be starting to drop on doorsteps in the coming days, do most PBers agree that if Labour hasn't started to close the gap in the polls by the time of the Sunday papers this weekend, the chances of stopping a Tory majority are probably gone and it is then just a matter of whether Boris and chums can avoid dropping a clanger in the remaining 2 weeks which will determine how far north of 325 seats we see at 10pm on 12th December in the exit poll.

    I don't. Postal voters are disproportionately the elderly and some ethnic communities. These are not swing demographics, those are mostly in person voters, so postal votes being sent early doesn't affect the outcome much.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    kle4 said:

    I feel more confident people will have read the LD manifesto than the Green one yesterday

    First Impressions
    100 pages, even chunkier than the Green Party one. Very clear title. No document bookmarking like the Green one unfortunately, and 9 sections instead of 5. Foreword talks about no limits to LD ambitions, a marked contrast to last time when it was admitting they wanted to replace Labour as main opposition.

    £50bn Remain bonus and economy 2% larger by 2024-25. Focus on schools, environment, mental health. Sections having narrative, then top priorities then detail is decent.

    Stop Brexit
    Revoke and if not a people’s vote, obviously.

    EU citizens to get the vote only if they have lived in the UK 5+ years

    This is more like an essay than a manifesto section, any pledges are lost in the paragraphs, it’s a series of arguments not promises.

    Our plan for a stronger economy
    Finally bringing in some bullet points.

    Skills wallet, wellbeing budget, increased infrastructure

    What does ‘give local authorities and regions the power to make decisions about their area’ mean? Could be anything.

    DCMS to become the DCMST – for Tourism.

    Committing to HS2. 300,000 homes a year by 2024, including 100,000 social homes. Greens were saying 100,000 right away.

    Increase research and dev spending to 3% of GDP. What is it now? But also sets a lower target of 2.4% no later than 2027. Confused?

    Support growth in the video game industry, among others.

    ‘Develop a mechanism to allow the public to share in the profits made by tech companies in the use of their data’ – I like money, a bit more detail on this would be nice.

    Scrapping rule that allows developers to convert offices and shops into residential properties without planning permission.

    This section feels a little woolly.

    ‘Labour and the Conservatives are looking to the past for answers that will not work today’. Good line, needed more emphasis across the document really.

    20% corporation tax. 4 less than Green IIRC.

    Replace business rates in England with Commercial Landowner Levy based solely on the land value of commercial sites. Less detail than Greens here.

    Scrap marriage tax allowance.

    Worker protection enforcement authority to protect those in precarious work.

    Flexible working open to all from day one, unless significant business reasons that is not possible.

    Strengthen ability of unions to represent workers effectively – how? Right of access to workplaces, but nothing else mentioned.

    Skills wallet detail, 10k for every adult to spend on education and training. Sounds nice, although how to administer seems potentially problematic.

    Nothing on PR?
    That was part 1 of 3. Single transferable vote for elections, naturally.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.

    Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.

    Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
    You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.

    Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
    Pretty much every Remainer I know voted thus because they were worried about the effect of Brexit on their house value (and hence ability to grow their family and move up the housing ladder) or the impact on their pension (and, as a result, their ability to pass assets on to their children).

    I don't really see why that's selfish, anyway? Everyone gets one vote, and casts it according to what they think is best for them. Then we agree as a country to proceed with what's best for the majority. I would venture that the mistake some on the Remain side made, and are still making, is to think they know best about what people in other parts of the country should want.
    You seem to live in a world where everyone is looking out for themselves and their offspring, and fuck the rest.

    You may be surprise to know that there are plenty of people for whom altruism is not a dirty word.
    To reiterate:

    - Everyone gets one vote
    - Everyone votes for what they believe is best for them
    - We do what's best for the majority

    That's the basis of our democracy. Parties/candidates/ideas have to appeal to a wide spread of the electorate in order to receive approval. Altruism isn't necessary, since all the people you're being altruistic towards can have their own (equal) say, especially in a national referendum.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Byronic said:

    Point of order. If Boris gets his Brexit deal through, the northern Irish will have a remarkably good deal. Members of the single market but also the uk. It’s likely that businesses will flock there to take advantage.

    They’d be mad to jeopardise this with a Border Poll which might cause renewed violence. Brexit a la Boris probably makes the union with Ulster a bit stronger, paradoxically

    Demonstrating the benefits of economic links with the EU and therefore the first step towards unification.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kle4 said:

    LD manifesto part 3

    Our plan to build a fairer society


    Wait for first benefit payment 5 days rather than 5 weeks – sounds great, although I don’t think government bureaucracy could do that well. Reform (not abolish) universal credit.

    Provide positive incentives for people to downsize – like what?

    Keeping the triple lock bribe

    Saying women born in 1950s were not properly notified of changes to stage pension age – I think that’s bollocks.

    Affordable housing section seems to contradict earlier session, implying 100,000 each year, rather than each year by 2024.

    All households to have 30mbps accesss

    Reform planning to ensure local infrastructure alongside new homes.

    End disproportionate use of stop and search.

    New online crime agency – like departments, why is a new agency always the answer?

    ‘oppose any laws that unnecessarily erode civil liberties’ ‘resist any attempt to withdraw from ECHR’? I think the manifesto has forgotten it is a plan for a LD government here

    500m to legal aid

    Halt use of facial recognition

    Right to no fault divorce

    Stat paternity leave to six weeks

    Unconscious bias training provision to all members of staff a condition of receipt of public funds – no thanks.

    Develop a plan to tackle BAME inqualities – so I guess they don’t have a plan yet.

    Our plan for better politics

    STR – me likey

    16 year old votes – me no likey

    Reform house of lords with a proper democratic mandate – odd wording, does this mean fully elected?

    Parliament not Queen in council to approve prorogation

    I don’t believe they really will decentralize meaningfully – all parties say it, but don’t trust local government

    Mandating leaders’ debates based on rules produced by ofcom – but if ofcom say it was ok for LDs not to be included this time, I bet that will change.

    Distinct legal jurisdiction for wales.

    Written constitution for a federal UK is mentioned but underplayed, hard to see any detail.

    Our plan for a better world

    Parliamentary vote before military action (except in emergencies or treaty obligation)

    Maintain minimum nuclear deterrent whilse pursuing disarmament – eh? I’m confused.

    Not increasing foreign aid beyond 0.7%

    Lots of stuff that is unattainable waffle about what we’d like to see in the world

    Many thanks for putting our manifesto out there for people to read, well done
  • camel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority

    Quite the opposite.

    According to the IFS the biggest beneficiaries of this change in cash terms are the those in the top 10% income bracket. The biggest beneficiaries as a % of income are those in the 7th decile. The poorest 10% gain least both in absolute and % terms.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/BN251_Boris_Johnson's_tax_policies.pdf
    One thing the coalition benefit cuts taught us is that, whilst the tories may hold the 10th decile in contempt, many in the 7th decile hold the 10th decile in contempt.
    So the money tree is going to be even less watered.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited November 2019

    I see the Earl of Inverness is taking a back seat. I wonder how long it will be until he takes a front seat on a plane to the Land of Uncle Sam! Unfortunately for him there will be little sympathy for him across the UK given his behaviour in recent years, associating with rich sons of dubious fathers from the Middle East and former Soviet states.

    On the election, given that the postal votes will be starting to drop on doorsteps in the coming days, do most PBers agree that if Labour hasn't started to close the gap in the polls by the time of the Sunday papers this weekend, the chances of stopping a Tory majority are probably gone and it is then just a matter of whether Boris and chums can avoid dropping a clanger in the remaining 2 weeks which will determine how far north of 325 seats we see at 10pm on 12th December in the exit poll.

    Postals are an important but still minor part of the vote. Still time for Boris to drop a real bollock until 12th. But it would have to be a bull-sized bollock to shift votes bigly.
    Floating voters tend not to be postal voters. Or vice versa.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kle4 said:


    Our plan for better education and skills
    Free childcare for all aged 2-4. 35 hrs a week. 48 weeks a year.

    Introduce baby boxes. Triple the early years pupil premium.

    20,000 teachers and reduce class sizes to 2015 levels.

    End politically motivated changes in curriculum by making body of experts do it - But who will appoint them?

    Scrapping SATs and have formal moderated teacher assessment – how will they do that?

    Replacing Ofsted with HM Inspector of Schools

    Starting teacher salary to 30k, Stat duty to promote wellbeing in schools, gender neutral school uniforms

    Safe standing at football clubs

    Where will they put these twenty thousand teachers? Will more people have to teach in portacabins (as I do)? Will they be in existing schools or will new ones be created? If the latter, who runs them?

    OFSTED already includes HM Inspector of schools. Admittedly she is an utter retard, a failed civil servant who has no clue what she is doing and never actually had, but she exists all right. I am amazed that they do not know this.

    So they would end politically motivated changes in the curriculum by, er, making politically motivated changes in the curriculum. As for ‘body of experts,’ Gove did that too - he just ignored all their findings because he and the egregious Cummings thought they knew better.

    Statutory duty to promote wellbeing in schools? Do they actually not realise that exists already?

    It is embarrassing to see how ignorant all parties are of education matters. And the two worst are yet to come - Rayner and Williamson.

    Incidentally @kle4, thanks for doing the heavy lifting on all this, I don’t think my blood pressure could stand it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Foxy said:

    Endillion said:

    Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.

    I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.

    In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.

    Dudley for Dudley will never work

    Endillion said:

    Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.

    I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.

    In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.

    Dudley for Dudley will never work
    I love nominative determinism

    My favourite -
    Dr. Richard Chopp Leading urologist specialising in vasectomies
    I'd avoid Dr O. M. Bogus - seen in a suburb of Stuttgart in the mid 1980s.
    I went to medical school with Sandra De'Ath. Not sure where she works now.
    I knew a guy called 'Death' (no apostrophe here).
    Shame he didn't stand for election ('Vote for Death' and 'Death to The Council' would have looked good on the posters).
    "Death is best"
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    IanB2 said:

    Endillion said:

    Re: the NI thing. Some final salary pension schemes base "pensionable" earnings on salary minus the lower NI threshold. A rise in the NI threshold is going to reduce their pensions, isn't it?

    Isn't it just swings and roundabouts? They save tax now and get hit by it later, which if they're over the lifetime cap could be a net win.

    There may not be enough DB schemes still open to accruals to matter, anyway. Anyone lucky enough to still be in a private sector one can probably take the hit.
    It might matter for the civil service schemes, but I don't know enough about how they work to comment. Would (I guess) only affect average salary schemes prospectively, not retrospectively.

    I thought that was no longer the case, following pension reform, with people who were previously opted out receiving pro-rate reductions in their NI credits - a reduction they can make good by working longer or paying for any unworked years?
    It's very possible I've misunderstood somewhere, but I think Alan was talking about people still in employment, not those who've opted out? Doesn't the opt-out refer only to state pension, not DB schemes?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    I see the Earl of Inverness is taking a back seat. I wonder how long it will be until he takes a front seat on a plane to the Land of Uncle Sam! Unfortunately for him there will be little sympathy for him across the UK given his behaviour in recent years, associating with rich sons of dubious fathers from the Middle East and former Soviet states.

    On the election, given that the postal votes will be starting to drop on doorsteps in the coming days, do most PBers agree that if Labour hasn't started to close the gap in the polls by the time of the Sunday papers this weekend, the chances of stopping a Tory majority are probably gone and it is then just a matter of whether Boris and chums can avoid dropping a clanger in the remaining 2 weeks which will determine how far north of 325 seats we see at 10pm on 12th December in the exit poll.

    Postals are an important but still minor part of the vote. Still time for Boris to drop a real bollock until 12th. But it would have to be a bull-sized bollock to shift votes bigly.
    Floating voters tend not to be postal voters. Or vice versa.
    I know a joke about large testicles.
    Man goes into restaurant next door to the bull ring...........

    Some time the bull ‘he wins’
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    LD manifesto part 2
    Our plan for better education and skills
    Free childcare for all aged 2-4. 35 hrs a week. 48 weeks a year.

    Introduce baby boxes. Triple the early years pupil premium.

    20,000 teachers and reduce class sizes to 2015 levels.

    End politically motivated changes in curriculum by making body of experts do it - But who will appoint them?

    Scrapping SATs and have formal moderated teacher assessment – how will they do that?

    Replacing Ofsted with HM Inspector of Schools

    Starting teacher salary to 30k, Stat duty to promote wellbeing in schools, gender neutral school uniforms

    Safe standing at football clubs

    Our plan for a green society and green economy

    Big push saying Labour and Conservatives are economically illiterate and morally indefensible.

    Insulate all homes by 2030

    80% electricity from renewables. Ban fracking for good. Electrifying railways and ‘all’ new cars are electric by 2030. That seems very ambitious.

    Department of climate change – why is new departments always the answer?

    Higher green criteria in public procurement policy

    Stat waste recycling target of 70%

    Reform flight taxation to focuson those who fly the most, while reducing the costs for those who fly less often – seems unnecessarily convoluted.

    Opposing all airport expansion, light rail and tram schemes wanted

    Freeze rail fairs for length of the parliament, Extend network, convert it to ultra low emission tech, support HS2, allow public sector companies to bid for rail franchises, new agency, more proactive in sacking operators (Odd inclusion)

    Animal sentience enshrined in law -Greens had this too

    Our plan for health and social care


    7bn a year from 1p on income tax – I think this was in the last manifesto too, at least they are explaining the increase.

    Cross party health and social convention – but I thought working with other parties was not a good thing anymore, as coalitions are always ruled out.

    Long section on mental health, obviously a major theme.

    Ban credit cards for gambling.

    Bit waffly in this section.

    A lot of references to do x as recommended by y – when I don’t know who or what y is.

    Legislate for right to unpolluted air.

    Standing at football stadiums! That's a policy I actually support.
    Can’t see the link to education though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    LD manifesto part 3

    Our plan to build a fairer society


    Wait for first benefit payment 5 days rather than 5 weeks – sounds great, although I don’t think government bureaucracy could do that well. Reform (not abolish) universal credit.

    Provide positive incentives for people to downsize – like what?

    Keeping the triple lock bribe

    Saying women born in 1950s were not properly notified of changes to stage pension age – I think that’s bollocks.

    Affordable housing section seems to contradict earlier session, implying 100,000 each year, rather than each year by 2024.

    All households to have 30mbps accesss

    Reform planning to ensure local infrastructure alongside new homes.

    End disproportionate use of stop and search.

    New online crime agency – like departments, why is a new agency always the answer?

    ‘oppose any laws that unnecessarily erode civil liberties’ ‘resist any attempt to withdraw from ECHR’? I think the manifesto has forgotten it is a plan for a LD government here

    500m to legal aid

    Halt use of facial recognition

    Right to no fault divorce

    Stat paternity leave to six weeks

    Unconscious bias training provision to all members of staff a condition of receipt of public funds – no thanks.

    Develop a plan to tackle BAME inqualities – so I guess they don’t have a plan yet.

    Our plan for better politics

    STR – me likey

    16 year old votes – me no likey

    Reform house of lords with a proper democratic mandate – odd wording, does this mean fully elected?

    Parliament not Queen in council to approve prorogation

    I don’t believe they really will decentralize meaningfully – all parties say it, but don’t trust local government

    Mandating leaders’ debates based on rules produced by ofcom – but if ofcom say it was ok for LDs not to be included this time, I bet that will change.

    Distinct legal jurisdiction for wales.

    Written constitution for a federal UK is mentioned but underplayed, hard to see any detail.

    Our plan for a better world

    Parliamentary vote before military action (except in emergencies or treaty obligation)

    Maintain minimum nuclear deterrent whilse pursuing disarmament – eh? I’m confused.

    Not increasing foreign aid beyond 0.7%

    Lots of stuff that is unattainable waffle about what we’d like to see in the world

    Many thanks for putting our manifesto out there for people to read, well done
    There's plenty to like in it. Bit wordy though, and what has detail and what does not seems very arbitrary.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rkrkrk said:

    Just watched Jo Swinson interviewed by Laura. I think she comes across well. Tricky spot for the Lib Dems, to pick up Tory votes without admitting they will, at some level, need to work with Corbyn to get ref 2.

    That's always going to be the Lib Dems' problem, of course. Stuck between the two large parties, and forever at risk of losing half their support if they get too close to one or the other.

    The only way things change for them is if Labour disintegrates, or it they can persuade or force Labour into accepting PR in a Hung Parliament scenario - and the red team might very well decline to cooperate regardless, unless by that point they'd been beaten so many times that they began to doubt their ability ever to command an outright majority under the existing system again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    rkrkrk said:

    Just watched Jo Swinson interviewed by Laura. I think she comes across well. Tricky spot for the Lib Dems, to pick up Tory votes without admitting they will, at some level, need to work with Corbyn to get ref 2.

    Impossible spot.
  • HYUFD said:

    Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority

    Quite the opposite.

    According to the IFS the biggest beneficiaries of this change in cash terms are the those in the top 10% income bracket. The biggest beneficiaries as a % of income are those in the 7th decile. The poorest 10% gain least both in absolute and % terms.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/BN251_Boris_Johnson's_tax_policies.pdf
    Presuming the upper NI threshold isn't extended - when the £50k threshold for 40% tax came in, the upper NI threshold was aligned up to that too meaning the 20% income tax saving on the increase was partially offset by extra 10% employer NI.

    Didn't hit the wealthy pensioner of course as pensioners don't pay NI.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Incidentally, the website says it is 'Jo Swinson's Plan for Britain's Future'. I like Jo Swinson just fine, but I think they overdo the focus on her.
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    LD manifesto part 2
    Our plan for better education and skills
    Free childcare for all aged 2-4. 35 hrs a week. 48 weeks a year.

    Introduce baby boxes. Triple the early years pupil premium.

    20,000 teachers and reduce class sizes to 2015 levels.

    End politically motivated changes in curriculum by making body of experts do it - But who will appoint them?

    Scrapping SATs and have formal moderated teacher assessment – how will they do that?

    Replacing Ofsted with HM Inspector of Schools

    Starting teacher salary to 30k, Stat duty to promote wellbeing in schools, gender neutral school uniforms

    Safe standing at football clubs

    Our plan for a green society and green economy

    Big push saying Labour and Conservatives are economically illiterate and morally indefensible.

    Insulate all homes by 2030

    80% electricity from renewables. Ban fracking for good. Electrifying railways and ‘all’ new cars are electric by 2030. That seems very ambitious.

    Departme

    Standing at football stadiums! That's a policy I actually support.
    Can’t see the link to education though.
    It's a very short section about access to sport and culture within that education and skills part.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kle4 said:

    I feel more confident people will have read the LD manifesto than the Green one yesterday

    First Impressions
    100 pages, even chunkier than the Green Party one. Very clear title. No document bookmarking like the Green one unfortunately, and 9 sections instead of 5. Foreword talks about no limits to LD ambitions, a marked contrast to last time when it was admitting they wanted to replace Labour as main opposition.

    £50bn Remain bonus and economy 2% larger by 2024-25. Focus on schools, environment, mental health. Sections having narrative, then top priorities then detail is decent.

    Stop Brexit
    Revoke and if not a people’s vote, obviously.

    EU citizens to get the vote only if they have lived in the UK 5+ years

    This is more like an essay than a manifesto section, any pledges are lost in the paragraphs, it’s a series of arguments not promises.

    Our plan for a stronger economy
    Finally bringing in some bullet points.

    Skills wallet, wellbeing budget, increased infrastructure

    What does ‘give local authorities and regions the power to make decisions about their area’ mean? Could be anything.

    DCMS to become the DCMST – for Tourism.

    Committing to HS2. 300,000 homes a year by 2024, including 100,000 social homes. Greens were saying 100,000 right away.

    Increase research and dev spending to 3% of GDP. What is it now? But also sets a lower target of 2.4% no later than 2027. Confused?

    Support growth in the video game industry, among others.

    ‘Develop a mechanism to allow the public to share in the profits made by tech companies in the use of their data’ – I like money, a bit more detail on this would be nice.

    Scrapping rule that allows developers to convert offices and shops into residential properties without planning permission.

    This section feels a little woolly.

    ‘Labour and the Conservatives are looking to the past for answers that will not work today’. Good line, needed more emphasis across the document really.

    20% corporation tax. 4 less than Green IIRC.

    Replace business rates in England with Commercial Landowner Levy based solely on the land value of commercial sites. Less detail than Greens here.

    Scrap marriage tax allowance.

    Worker protection enforcement authority to protect those in precarious work.

    Flexible working open to all from day one, unless significant business reasons that is not possible.

    Strengthen ability of unions to represent workers effectively – how? Right of access to workplaces, but nothing else mentioned.

    Skills wallet detail, 10k for every adult to spend on education and training. Sounds nice, although how to administer seems potentially problematic.

    This is very helpful thanks.
  • I am just waiting for somebody to propose a new manifesto policy of "Abolish taxes. Print more money and give it to everyone twice a week".....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.

    Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
    "And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed."

    ...even if that means trashing a sensible policy. Hmmmm.
    Would be karmic after the way they behaved in 2017 if that happened.

    Fortunately Labour have no sensible policies so it seems most unlikely to happen.
    The one sensible policy in the 2017 Tory manifesto was the Social Care policy. I'd have voted for that one.

    How are we ever going to address the Social Care issues as a country if we don't collectively face into it at some point?
    Quite the contrary, the 2017 social care policy was a disgrace and I could barely even bring myself to canvass after it and I know many Tory activists felt the same.

    Taking the family home is not an option beyond residential care where it already applies.

    Longer term some combination of National Insurance an annuities can pay for increased social care costs but only with a cross party royal commission
    "Family home" makes it sound like the proposal was to kick school children out on the street.

    "... some combination of National Insurance and annuities can pay for increased social care costs"

    How much would NI have to go up do you think? Annuities bought with what?

    Must say I am looking forward to seeing what the Tory proposals are this time around.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited November 2019

    I am just waiting for somebody to propose a new manifesto policy of "Abolish taxes. Print more money and give it to everyone twice a week".....

    Well the Greens are supportive of Universal Basic Income...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    kle4 said:

    I am just waiting for somebody to propose a new manifesto policy of "Abolish taxes. Print more money and give it to everyone twice a week".....

    Well the Greens are supprotive of Universal Basic Income...
    Tbf that was only going to be paid once a week. :lol:
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    LD manifesto commitment:

    As far as I can work out, this reform does involve and is part funded by the abolition of Small Business Rate Relief which removes £1.53bn effective subsidy to small businesses.

    Can anyone help me out on this - am I wrong?

    https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/43650/attachments/original/1535560302/Business_Rates.pdf?1535560302#

    Page 9
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    Evening all, I am sure lots of you watched the Liberal candidate for East Dunbartonshire do her "violet Elizabeth" act earlier this evening and while no doubt some of you were whooping with delight, I am sure the majority of us were totally underwhelmed. Interesting to see Ed Conway on SKY News take her financial costings and "tear them to shreds". He even said that in some respects, the programme she announced would be more of a continuation of austerity than the Conservative plans.

    As for Nick Watt's tweets, apart from being a "pretty boy" does anyone outside the Guardian consider him to be a serious journalist. All this Liberal talk reminds me so much of the "decapitation policy" of 2005 when instead of unseating Theresa May, Oliver Letwin and Michael Howard with their targeted campaigns, we saw all 3 increase their majorities.

    Meanwhile I wonder how shooglie the peg Tim Farron sits on in Westmorland has become? Could the Liberals begin the election campaign with 20 MPs and end it with fewer of them :)

    Violet Elizabeth? Pretty boy? Shooglie the peg? Do you think you could try to phrase your posts more comprehensibly, and ideally less abusively? And I'm not a LibDem.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    edited November 2019
    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Just done the usual Political Studies Association prediction survey. The results will be published shortly but without any individual forecasts. I hope I am close to the real result but suspect not.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority

    Quite the opposite.

    According to the IFS the biggest beneficiaries of this change in cash terms are the those in the top 10% income bracket. The biggest beneficiaries as a % of income are those in the 7th decile. The poorest 10% gain least both in absolute and % terms.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/BN251_Boris_Johnson's_tax_policies.pdf
    Presuming the upper NI threshold isn't extended - when the £50k threshold for 40% tax came in, the upper NI threshold was aligned up to that too meaning the 20% income tax saving on the increase was partially offset by extra 10% employer NI.

    Didn't hit the wealthy pensioner of course as pensioners don't pay NI.
    The paper assumes the upper NI threshold is raised:

    "Raising the HRT to £80,000 has two effects on tax liabilities. First, it means that any taxable income between £50,000 and £80,000 is subject to the basic rate of tax (20%), rather than the higher rate (40%). Second, it means that some people will pay more NICs. This is because the HRT is aligned with the upper earnings limit (UEL) in the employee and self- employed NICs system.

    As an aside, how is it right that people who work for their income pay a higher rate (tax & NI) than those who have unearned income?
  • ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    That result looks entirely reasonable (ie my forecast is almost identical). Sadly.
  • Endillion said:

    IanB2 said:

    Endillion said:

    Re: the NI thing. Some final salary pension schemes base "pensionable" earnings on salary minus the lower NI threshold. A rise in the NI threshold is going to reduce their pensions, isn't it?

    Isn't it just swings and roundabouts? They save tax now and get hit by it later, which if they're over the lifetime cap could be a net win.

    There may not be enough DB schemes still open to accruals to matter, anyway. Anyone lucky enough to still be in a private sector one can probably take the hit.
    It might matter for the civil service schemes, but I don't know enough about how they work to comment. Would (I guess) only affect average salary schemes prospectively, not retrospectively.

    I thought that was no longer the case, following pension reform, with people who were previously opted out receiving pro-rate reductions in their NI credits - a reduction they can make good by working longer or paying for any unworked years?
    It's very possible I've misunderstood somewhere, but I think Alan was talking about people still in employment, not those who've opted out? Doesn't the opt-out refer only to state pension, not DB schemes?
    Yes, I am talking about people still in employment in a DB FS scheme with a few years until retirement. Asking for a friend ...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited November 2019
    nichomar said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    ...

    Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
    You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.

    Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
    Pretty much every Remainer I know voted thus because they were worried about the effect of Brexit on their house value (and hence ability to grow their family and move up the housing ladder) or the impact on their pension (and, as a result, their ability to pass assets on to their children).

    I don't really see why that's selfish, anyway? Everyone gets one vote, and casts it according to what they think is best for them. Then we agree as a country to proceed with what's best for the majority. I would venture that the mistake some on the Remain side made, and are still making, is to think they know best about what people in other parts of the country should want.
    Well you obviously don’t know many remainders I voted remain because it was best for the UK in total, how that best was spent was up to our politicians. Remainders voted remain because they believed that unity was strength and had more impact on the world stage. They voted remain because it was far better to be on the inside influencing decision rather than having to take what they decided. They voted remain because the lies of the leave campaign were beyond belief and couldn’t believe that, as it turned out, people still believed the EU had banned bendy bananas and confers. Not once did personal financial position enter the equation it was a stupid idiotic decision which will go down in history as the biggest act of collective lunacy ever.
    Yeah, so I'm a middle class professional living in London, working in an office of metropolitan liberals mostly in their 20s and 30s. So I'd say most people I know voted Remain, verging on "overwhelming majority".

    I think there is a big grey area that encompasses "I think this is best for me and my family" and "I think this is best for the country, because I've implicitly assumed there are lots of people like me in the country."
  • ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    I see this predicts a Tory gain in Birmingham Northfield (my old patch), which is one of my bets. I am surprised others seem to think it is a Lab hold.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    Incidentally, in case anyone was curious, UK-Elect was ranked 3rd most accurate out of 16 forecasters for forecasting the 2017 election (ordered primarily by Tory seats) - see How Did The Election Forecasts Do In 2017?.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    slade said:

    Just done the usual Political Studies Association prediction survey. The results will be published shortly but without any individual forecasts. I hope I am close to the real result but suspect not.

    Funny to make a (presumably private) prediction that you suspect is wrong?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    No. The appetite out there for another lengthy period of stalemate in Govt. is nil.
  • ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    Yep.

    See you all again in March/April 2020.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    No. The appetite out there for another lengthy period of stalemate in Govt. is nil.
    There may not be an appetite for it, but its quite possible we end up voting for it.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    It would be outrageous for boundary reforms to be implemented for the next election. There should always be a five year delay.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    People are reading this election through the prism of the last one. BJ is nothing like TM and the Tory manifesto won't be anywhere near as bad as last time. JC is much more of a known quantity. I suspect that BJ will win a majority albeit a smallish one
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Endillion said:

    nichomar said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    ...

    Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
    You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.



    Pretty much every Remainer I know voted thus because they were worried about the effect of Brexit on their house value (and hence ability to grow their family and move up the housing ladder) or the impact on their pension (and, as a result, their ability to pass assets on to their children).

    I don't really see why that's selfish, anyway? Everyone gets one vote, and casts it according to what they think is best for them. Then we agree as a country to proceed with what's best for the majority. I would venture that the mistake some on the Remain side made, and are still making, is to think they know best about what people in other parts of the country should want.
    Well you obviously don’t know many remainders I voted remain because it was best for the UK in total, how that best was spent was up to our politicians. Remainders voted remain because they believed that unity was strength and had more impact on the world stage. They voted remain because it was far better to be on the inside influencing decision rather than having to take what they decided. They voted remain because the lies of the leave campaign were beyond belief and couldn’t believe that, as it turned out, people still believed the EU had banned bendy bananas and confers. Not once did personal financial position enter the equation it was a stupid idiotic decision which will go down in history as the biggest act of collective lunacy ever.
    Yeah, so I'm a middle class professional living in London, working in an office of metropolitan liberals mostly in their 20s and 30s. So I'd say most people I know voted Remain, verging on "overwhelming majority".

    I think there is a big grey area that encompasses "I think this is best for me and my family" and "I think this is best for the country, because I've implicitly assumed there are lots of people like me in the country."
    Actually I voted remain for my children and their future nothing else as did they for their future and their children’s future
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Evening all, I am sure lots of you watched the Liberal candidate for East Dunbartonshire do her "violet Elizabeth" act earlier this evening and while no doubt some of you were whooping with delight, I am sure the majority of us were totally underwhelmed. Interesting to see Ed Conway on SKY News take her financial costings and "tear them to shreds". He even said that in some respects, the programme she announced would be more of a continuation of austerity than the Conservative plans.

    As for Nick Watt's tweets, apart from being a "pretty boy" does anyone outside the Guardian consider him to be a serious journalist. All this Liberal talk reminds me so much of the "decapitation policy" of 2005 when instead of unseating Theresa May, Oliver Letwin and Michael Howard with their targeted campaigns, we saw all 3 increase their majorities.

    Meanwhile I wonder how shooglie the peg Tim Farron sits on in Westmorland has become? Could the Liberals begin the election campaign with 20 MPs and end it with fewer of them :)

    Violet Elizabeth? Pretty boy? Shooglie the peg? Do you think you could try to phrase your posts more comprehensibly, and ideally less abusively? And I'm not a LibDem.
    It's not the shipping forecast here Nick.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited November 2019

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    No. The appetite out there for another lengthy period of stalemate in Govt. is nil.
    That may be true. But how does that translate into individual votes?

    You probably see it as a cast iron reason to vote Tory; I see it as a good reason to vote in any way I can to kick the Tories out (given they are responsible for the current shambles).

    If broadly equal numbers agree with each of us there is nothing any of us can do to avoid the potential for another hung parliament.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    I see this predicts a Tory gain in Birmingham Northfield (my old patch), which is one of my bets. I am surprised others seem to think it is a Lab hold.
    Birmingham Northfield looks like a possible Tory gain but could be close.

    Incidentally, if you or anyone else has a Windows based PC and wants to try a forecast yourself, perhaps adjusting the figures or weighting for various factors (of which there are far too many to be very confident of any forecast), then just message me and I'll send you a download link.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Gabs3 said:

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    It would be outrageous for boundary reforms to be implemented for the next election. There should always be a five year delay.
    we are going through the fourth general election on these boundaries. they were based on the 2001 census. It is long past time that new boundaries were implemented. If DC had not gone for a 600 seat review then the new fairer (voters per seat wise) would have been implemented already
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    spudgfsh said:

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    BJ is nothing like TM and the Tory manifesto won't be anywhere near as bad as last time.
    The first part is definitely true, for better and worse, but the second part is pure conjecture. I don't remember the Tory manifesto being that bad at all, though its undeniable that whatever the merits of its policy proposals key elements went down very badly. But given they did not think that would be the case, being extra careful to avoid such mistakes is no guaratee they won't put one in by mistake.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Thanks. The more spreadsheets the better!
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    kle4 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    BJ is nothing like TM and the Tory manifesto won't be anywhere near as bad as last time.
    The first part is definitely true, for better and worse, but the second part is pure conjecture. I don't remember the Tory manifesto being that bad at all, though its undeniable that whatever the merits of its policy proposals key elements went down very badly. But given they did not think that would be the case, being extra careful to avoid such mistakes is no guaratee they won't put one in by mistake.
    TBF it was TMs reaction to the reaction that was the problem and not the policy itself
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    My god if this is the result on Dec 12th the tories might actually sell the NHS!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/LeanTossup/status/1196945698073260034
  • kle4 said:

    I am just waiting for somebody to propose a new manifesto policy of "Abolish taxes. Print more money and give it to everyone twice a week".....

    Well the Greens are supprotive of Universal Basic Income...
    Tbf that was only going to be paid once a week. :lol:
    If I recall Milton Friedman was also in favour. So not just some hippy dream.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Endillion said:

    nichomar said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    MikeL said:

    LD Manifesto:

    CGT allowance (currently £12,000) completely abolished.

    One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.

    However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.

    ...

    Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
    You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.

    Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
    Pretty mu
    on (and, as a result, their ability to pass assets on to their children).

    I don't really see why that's selfish, anyway? Everyone gets one vote, and casts it according to what they think is best for them. Then we agree as a country to proceed with what's best for the majority. I would venture that the mistake some on the Remain side made, and are still making, is to think they know best about what people in other parts of the country should want.
    Well you obviously don’t know many remainders I voted remain because it was best for the UK in total, how that best was spent was up to our politicians. Remainders voted remain because they believed that unity was strength and had more impact on the world stage. They voted remain because it was far better to be on the inside influencing decision rather than having to take what they decided. They voted remain because the lies of the leave campaign were beyond belief and couldn’t believe that, as it turned out, people still believed the EU had banned bendy bananas and confers. Not once did personal financial position enter the equation it was a stupid idiotic decision which will go down in history as the biggest act of collective lunacy ever.
    Yeah, so I'm a middle class professional living in London, working in an office of metropolitan liberals mostly in their 20s and 30s. So I'd say most people I know voted Remain, verging on "overwhelming majority".

    I think there is a big grey area that encompasses "I think this is best for me and my family" and "I think this is best for the country, because I've implicitly assumed there are lots of people like me in the country."
    Sorry that sounds like bollocks. You're telling me you know how everyone in your office voted and why because they told you it was to protect their house values.

    *cough* bullshit *cough*
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    One would expect nothing less, you are not very good at disguising your contempt for lib dems, just n be more honest about condemning them.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    IanB2 said:

    Endillion said:

    Re: the NI thing. Some final salary pension schemes base "pensionable" earnings on salary minus the lower NI threshold. A rise in the NI threshold is going to reduce their pensions, isn't it?

    Isn't it just swings and roundabouts? They save tax now and get hit by it later, which if they're over the lifetime cap could be a net win.

    There may not be enough DB schemes still open to accruals to matter, anyway. Anyone lucky enough to still be in a private sector one can probably take the hit.
    It might matter for the civil service schemes, but I don't know enough about how they work to comment. Would (I guess) only affect average salary schemes prospectively, not retrospectively.

    I thought that was no longer the case, following pension reform, with people who were previously opted out receiving pro-rate reductions in their NI credits - a reduction they can make good by working longer or paying for any unworked years?
    It's very possible I've misunderstood somewhere, but I think Alan was talking about people still in employment, not those who've opted out? Doesn't the opt-out refer only to state pension, not DB schemes?
    Yes, I am talking about people still in employment in a DB FS scheme with a few years until retirement. Asking for a friend ...
    This is the sort of thing IFAs and accountancy firms tend to release notes on once all the manifestos are released, both as a freebie to customers and an incentive to draw new customers in for advice. Suggest looking at those - eg Hargreaves Lansdown usually have pretty good summaries available for free.

    I would expect this to be complex. If the Tories are also planning to raise the lifetime allowance caps, that could dwarf any impact from the increased NI threshold, depending on where your friend is on the income scale.

    Obligatory notice that this is not financial advice and personal circumstances may vary, wildly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    ukelect said:

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    I see this predicts a Tory gain in Birmingham Northfield (my old patch), which is one of my bets. I am surprised others seem to think it is a Lab hold.
    Birmingham Northfield looks like a possible Tory gain but could be close.

    Incidentally, if you or anyone else has a Windows based PC and wants to try a forecast yourself, perhaps adjusting the figures or weighting for various factors (of which there are far too many to be very confident of any forecast), then just message me and I'll send you a download link.
    It'll be very close in my opinion. Popular local MP makes it difficult for the Tories.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Evening all, I am sure lots of you watched the Liberal candidate for East Dunbartonshire do her "violet Elizabeth" act earlier this evening and while no doubt some of you were whooping with delight, I am sure the majority of us were totally underwhelmed. Interesting to see Ed Conway on SKY News take her financial costings and "tear them to shreds". He even said that in some respects, the programme she announced would be more of a continuation of austerity than the Conservative plans.

    As for Nick Watt's tweets, apart from being a "pretty boy" does anyone outside the Guardian consider him to be a serious journalist. All this Liberal talk reminds me so much of the "decapitation policy" of 2005 when instead of unseating Theresa May, Oliver Letwin and Michael Howard with their targeted campaigns, we saw all 3 increase their majorities.

    Meanwhile I wonder how shooglie the peg Tim Farron sits on in Westmorland has become? Could the Liberals begin the election campaign with 20 MPs and end it with fewer of them :)

    Violet Elizabeth? Pretty boy? Shooglie the peg? Do you think you could try to phrase your posts more comprehensibly, and ideally less abusively? And I'm not a LibDem.
    A shooglie peg is a delightful idiom for an insecure place, so Westmorland looks like a shooglie peg for Tim Farron.

    Stuart McBride has done much to improve my Scottish english.

    I await vehement correction.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Mirror upset about not having a seat on the Boris Bus.

    https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1197246435412103169/photo/1
  • Andy_JS said:

    ukelect said:

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    I see this predicts a Tory gain in Birmingham Northfield (my old patch), which is one of my bets. I am surprised others seem to think it is a Lab hold.
    Birmingham Northfield looks like a possible Tory gain but could be close.

    Incidentally, if you or anyone else has a Windows based PC and wants to try a forecast yourself, perhaps adjusting the figures or weighting for various factors (of which there are far too many to be very confident of any forecast), then just message me and I'll send you a download link.
    It'll be very close in my opinion. Popular local MP makes it difficult for the Tories.
    I agree he is popular. And not seen as some Corbynista nut.

    Think it will be tighter than the 1400-odd from UK elect.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    nichomar said:

    One would expect nothing less, you are not very good at disguising your contempt for lib dems, just n be more honest about condemning them.
    I didn't write it.

    I have mixed feelings about the LibDems, since you ask. I work very well with them on a local level, and also worked with several of them very closely in Parliament - particularly Norman Lamb. But I don't feel they are reliable - apart from PR, where they obviously have a direct interest, there are few policies which I feel sure they would support or oppose 5 years from now. I know what they're against, and often that's enough to wish them well in a particular seat, but what they're for seems too much of a mocable feast. Sorry.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    Seems reasonable, although there is still a long way to go. If the polling numbers begin to show signs of stabilising then I might start to feel slightly more confident of our chances of being spared from the Corbyn-McDonnell regime.

    Of course, if the Conservatives win with a 50-60 seat majority then boundary reform takes place and the likelihood of Scotland seceding increases. They've won an outright majority of seats in England at every election since the retirement of Blair, and could easily go into 2024 sat on a notional majority of anything between about 80 and 120, depending on how Indyref2 goes.

    But that really is thinking too far ahead. We're probably going to end up with 2017 Mk.2 and another Hung Parliament, aren't we?
    No. The appetite out there for another lengthy period of stalemate in Govt. is nil.
    Yes we are all gagging for a five year Johnson majority government I’m sure you tories can’t wait to ensure your donors get their pay back and you don’t have to feel any financial impact whilst the poorest in society continue to suffer. The only consolation you have is that labour are equally as guilty as they are for neglecting those that need them. The state of UK politics is at its lowest level ever.
  • Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    IanB2 said:

    Endillion said:

    Re: the NI thing. Some final salary pension schemes base "pensionable" earnings on salary minus the lower NI threshold. A rise in the NI threshold is going to reduce their pensions, isn't it?

    Isn't it just swings and roundabouts? They save tax now and get hit by it later, which if they're over the lifetime cap could be a net win.

    There may not be enough DB schemes still open to accruals to matter, anyway. Anyone lucky enough to still be in a private sector one can probably take the hit.
    It might matter for the civil service schemes, but I don't know enough about how they work to comment. Would (I guess) only affect average salary schemes prospectively, not retrospectively.

    I thought that was no longer the case, following pension reform, with people who were previously opted out receiving pro-rate reductions in their NI credits - a reduction they can make good by working longer or paying for any unworked years?
    It's very possible I've misunderstood somewhere, but I think Alan was talking about people still in employment, not those who've opted out? Doesn't the opt-out refer only to state pension, not DB schemes?
    Yes, I am talking about people still in employment in a DB FS scheme with a few years until retirement. Asking for a friend ...
    This is the sort of thing IFAs and accountancy firms tend to release notes on once all the manifestos are released, both as a freebie to customers and an incentive to draw new customers in for advice. Suggest looking at those - eg Hargreaves Lansdown usually have pretty good summaries available for free.

    I would expect this to be complex. If the Tories are also planning to raise the lifetime allowance caps, that could dwarf any impact from the increased NI threshold, depending on where your friend is on the income scale.

    Obligatory notice that this is not financial advice and personal circumstances may vary, wildly.
    Thanks. It is a public sector scheme (with associated level of salary) so lifetime allowance cap not in any danger.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    edited November 2019

    Andy_JS said:

    ukelect said:

    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect forecast, based on latest GB and regional polls, some local polls, actual candidates lists, local party pacts etc. etc. is Con Maj 64 (Con 356 Lab 194 SNP 49 LD 26 DUP 10) - see November 20 2019 Forecast for every constituency as CSV (spreadsheet) file here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

    I see this predicts a Tory gain in Birmingham Northfield (my old patch), which is one of my bets. I am surprised others seem to think it is a Lab hold.
    Birmingham Northfield looks like a possible Tory gain but could be close.

    Incidentally, if you or anyone else has a Windows based PC and wants to try a forecast yourself, perhaps adjusting the figures or weighting for various factors (of which there are far too many to be very confident of any forecast), then just message me and I'll send you a download link.
    It'll be very close in my opinion. Popular local MP makes it difficult for the Tories.
    I agree he is popular. And not seen as some Corbynista nut.

    Think it will be tighter than the 1400-odd from UK elect.
    I'd predict something between a 2,000 Lab maj and a 500 Tory one.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited November 2019

    nichomar said:

    One would expect nothing less, you are not very good at disguising your contempt for lib dems, just n be more honest about condemning them.
    I didn't write it.

    I have mixed feelings about the LibDems, since you ask. I work very well with them on a local level, and also worked with several of them very closely in Parliament - particularly Norman Lamb. But I don't feel they are reliable - apart from PR, where they obviously have a direct interest, there are few policies which I feel sure they would support or oppose 5 years from now. I know what they're against, and often that's enough to wish them well in a particular seat, but what they're for seems too much of a mocable feast. Sorry.
    What current Labour policies were in place five years ago?
This discussion has been closed.