Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslaught.
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
I am a conservative, I have no problem with inherited wealth plus he earnt some of it through business deals
The only money he ever earns was when he flew helicopters, he is coming over as a parasite and if the firm aren’t careful will pull the whole farce down.
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslaught.
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
It has not at all, Prince Andrew at stepping back from public duties does not affect the institution of monarchy which any true Tory would know is beyond reproach
The family that gave us the Nazi loving monarch? Yeah right, beyond reproach.
"Institution" means something different from "family."
Republicanism gave the US Donald Trump, without the excuse that he was just an accident of birth.
And here's a handy tip: when considering the case against an English posho, I always apply the test: Yebbut did he fuck the country like David Cameron fucked it? This gives a useful sense of proportion.
Does Milton not split the remain vote (i.e. LD) there as much as she does the Tory vote?
No. Milton will poll poorly, but those who are saying they will vote for her are generally dyed in the wool conservatives who think she has been badly treated. These votes would never go to the LDs, but will now also not go Conservative. These people include 2 Conservative councillors to my knowledge (but cannot name as the local party has been taken over by ex-kippers and their fellow travellers such as Dennis Paul who will go after anyone stepping out of line).
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslaught.
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslaught.
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
And I believe only one came off?
Yup, Tim Farron defeated Parliament's number one Doctor Who fan.
A right old faff of a day. Starts off 6am start heading from Teesside to Excel in London. Get as far as Rotherham, off the motorway to collect McDonalds (I know, I know...) and instead collect some kid driving a Fiesta who managed to cut at 90 degrees through a line of traffic to enter a driveway not realising there are two lanes. He didn't see me, I saw him but nowhere to go, classic low speed T-Bone as my braking Volvo hit his nearside front wheel square on.
He's fine. I'm fine. My car needs new bumper, grille etc but drove back to Teesside after application of Gaffer Tape. His 10 year old Fezzer with a wheel at an entertaining angle and crunched wind and door probably a write off. He even admitted 100% liability to his insurers when reporting it. Simples!
Except for the afternoon then spent on the phone to various people some repeatedly. And this is with Volvo claim handling it between my insurer and his. If this is the faff required for a fairly straightforward car driveable but needs proffered hire replacement and a fix, and there is no insurance argument because liability admitted, I would hate to think how bloody long it would take with a worse prang. Or multiple cars and insurers.
They all play the same shitty game. I had a 14 page (really!!) form to claim for a £130 pushchair that easyjet trashed, with a lot of information required that you'd only think to gather if you knew what arseholes insurance companies are.
I came very close to just binning it, but was sufficiently stubborn to grind through the whole unnecessarily painful process. I'm sure many others would simply fold.
Just think of how bad it can get with medical insurance claims with insurance companies second-guessing the physicians' judgment at to what procedures were necessary.
Germany has good health provision on the supply side, but the finance side is insurance run and is a HUGE mess. Most people are on so called public health insurance schemes (which are usually run by not-for-profit-organisations). They have their treatment options restricted, or are limited to a number of treatment sessions, by rules set down by the insurer, and not based on personal medical need. If you are recommended some moderately expensive treatment then you need to ask your insurer first whether you are covered, or be prepared to pay for the treatment out of your own pocket.
I could now go on a 10 page rant on this subject, but I'll spare you all.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslaught.
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
And I believe only one came off?
Yup, Tim Farron defeated Parliament's number one Doctor Who fan.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
If the advance in social media advertising supported using AI continues unchecked, the British system too will be heading towards a wealth buys elections system.
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslaught.
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
And I believe only one came off?
Yup, Tim Farron defeated Parliament's number one Doctor Who fan.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslau
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
And I believe only one came off?
Yup, Tim Farron defeated Parliament's number one Doctor Who fan.
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslau
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
And I believe only one came off?
Yup, Tim Farron defeated Parliament's number one Doctor Who fan.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
It is impossible to read the word "Dudley" without hearing it in a Brummoy accent. See also "Bostin!", although I don't know if it is still followed by "...Steve Austin!"
I see Prime Ministerial Jo is dodging the Andrew Neil interview tonight. Pretty cowardly and will ensure the other 2 do too.
for what reason?
Sent Ed Davey. One can only assume because it will be less damaging for a lesser figure to be shown to be a fool than for her to be shown to be a fool.
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslaught.
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
I’ve been thinking the same myself - and it is exactly the wrong strategy. You need to work hard to convince voters to support you and turn out. That is about being positive. A decapitation in an election whilst fun television is generally a negative. It’s about the loser not the winner.
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslau
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
And I believe only one came off?
Yup, Tim Farron defeated Parliament's number one Doctor Who fan.
Another election in Israel in the offing. We still have some way to go to match other countries when it comes to frequent elections due to political deadlock.
I have had a number of facebook ads directed at my seat (Derby South) from both the Conservatives and Labour. I don't expect Margaret Beckett to be anywhere near losing her seat but is there something they know that I don't. (I've not seen a labour one).
Sam Gyimah taking a complete pummelling on LBC; I actually feel sorry for him. He was on his knees and then they brought in a question about tuition fees; apparently they won't change under the LibDems (when even the Tories are talking about cuts to them).
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
It is impossible to read the word "Dudley" without hearing it in a Brummoy accent. See also "Bostin!", although I don't know if it is still followed by "...Steve Austin!"
Dudley is Black Country, not Brummie. If you want to understand the difference try listening to 'The Black Country Alphabet' on youtube. It used to be played before West Brom games, with much crowd participation.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
It is impossible to read the word "Dudley" without hearing it in a Brummoy accent. See also "Bostin!", although I don't know if it is still followed by "...Steve Austin!"
Dudley is Black Country, not Brummie. If you want to understand the difference try listening to 'The Black Country Alphabet' on youtube. It used to be played before West Brom games, with much crowd participation.
One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.
However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.
Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.
Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.
Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
Another election in Israel in the offing. We still have some way to go to match other countries when it comes to frequent elections due to political deadlock.
We've had four in nine years and three in four years. We do seem to be catching up.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
It is impossible to read the word "Dudley" without hearing it in a Brummoy accent. See also "Bostin!", although I don't know if it is still followed by "...Steve Austin!"
Dudley is Black Country, not Brummie. If you want to understand the difference try listening to 'The Black Country Alphabet' on youtube. It used to be played before West Brom games, with much crowd participation.
I learn something new every day, thank you.
My pleasure. I have the advantage of being born in Smethwick, raised in Birmingham and fled at the first opportunity!
Delivering today and first stint of canvassing tomorrow (in a usually strong area which I know well) so should be able to discern some kind of trend. Sure, the LibDems are throwing the kitchen sink and flooding the place but our reports saying the vote is holding up well despite the onslau
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
Let us know how it goes.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
And I believe only one came off?
Yup, Tim Farron defeated Parliament's number one Doctor Who fan.
If the LDs are doing so well in Surrey and surrounding areas, they must be doing pretty badly in the rest of the country if the latest opinion polls are right.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
The @CCHQpress account is verified by Twitter, which means its profile page displays a blue tick intended to show other users that the account is genuine.
But, according to Twitter's rules published on its website, this verification can be removed for behaviour such as "intentionally misleading people...by changing one's display name or bio".
Twitter's rules also state that users cannot "impersonate individuals, groups, or organisations in a manner that is intended to or does mislead, confuse, or deceive others".
A Twitter spokesperson said on Wednesday: "Twitter is committed to facilitating healthy debate throughout the UK general election.
"We have global rules in place that prohibit behaviour that can mislead people, including those with verified accounts.
"Any further attempts to mislead people by editing verified profile information - in a manner seen during the UK election debate - will result in decisive corrective action."
It's a funny old world when you can apparently accuse people of all sorts of heinous crimes, and/or threaten to attack their family, with impunity, but the line is drawn at changing your name for a few hours.
Well, I say funny. Anyone who is leaning on Twitter's terms of service (or their enforcement of same) to provide a definitive view on what is and is not acceptable conduct, has left the path of reason.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
If the advance in social media advertising supported using AI continues unchecked, the British system too will be heading towards a wealth buys elections system.
Wealth does not really buy US elections, ask Mitt Romney or Ross Perot and you can make plenty of political social media ads cheaply
It has not at all, Prince Andrew at stepping back from public duties does not affect the institution of monarchy which any true Tory would know is beyond reproach
Beyond belief, the royal Conservative party, is he not a member of said family ? Are you implying his behavior is therefore beyond reproach. HMQ has made a serious misjudgment by havin him escort her to church, thereby demonstrating support for him. He is taking the monarchy down if they don’t act
He is not taking the monarchy down at all, the Queen still has a 72% positive approval rating even if Andrew's is just 19%.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Dudley for Dudley will never work
You’d campaign on “back Dudley”, surely?
Dudley Wooster would have been an excellent choice.
If the LDs are doing so well in Surrey and surrounding areas, they must be doing pretty badly in the rest of the country if the latest opinion polls are right.
I’m afraid that’s the hope we always live with, there is some truth as I’ve said before that this is a 40/40 election 40 targets 40 development seats. There will be some in which they lose their deposit and others they don’t actively campaign in. To get 15% nation wide could deliver on the 40/40 strategy but the best evidence comes from those who live there.
One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.
However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.
CGT allowance scrapped sounds like massive increase in paperwork if there are no new exemptions for low amounts.
Apparently you'd get a joint CA and income tax allowance. I can't imagine it results in a smaller paperwork burden either.
As long as you dont earn £12k a year you dont have to report anything on capital gains aiui? The vast majority of the country probably only declare a handful of years in their life, the other years they dont even need to track their capital gains as would be clearly under £12k.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Dudley for Dudley will never work
I love nominative determinism
My favourite - Dr. Richard Chopp Leading urologist specialising in vasectomies
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
If the advance in social media advertising supported using AI continues unchecked, the British system too will be heading towards a wealth buys elections system.
Wealth does not really buy US elections, ask Mitt Romney or Ross Perot and you can make plenty of political social media ads cheaply
You do need to be raise eye wateringly large amunts of money to run for office in the US.
And it is not the cost of making the social media ads that costs the money. It's paying companies like Cambridge Analytica to target those ads effectively, which costs the money.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
If the advance in social media advertising supported using AI continues unchecked, the British system too will be heading towards a wealth buys elections system.
Wealth does not really buy US elections, ask Mitt Romney or Ross Perot and you can make plenty of political social media ads cheaply
Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority
Spaffing money on tax cuts when Public Services are in such a state
Priceless ... only Santa Grandpa can offer free stuff and bribes.
Lab proposals fiscally neutral as you will see tomorrow.
Con £11bn MMT so far.
Yes, jeremy told us last night the 4 day week will be funded by 'increased productivity' Fucking priceless.
When the NHS was founded it was claimed the cost would come down as people got more healthy....
I recently spent some time at a hospital. and was amazed that it had a Subway take away in the food hall. How can a "Health Service" provide food that is so unhealthy? If it were genuine interested in the health of the nation, it should take a more holistic approach.
How dare adults make choices. What is it with people wanting to boss people around?
The food you need to eat when ill and recovering is quite different to when you are well. A high carb high protein meal like what you would get from Subway would be perfect.
It is just privatisation. Concessions are leased out to whoever pays. Southampton General Hospital has a concession rented out to the ambulance chasers...
It has not at all, Prince Andrew at stepping back from public duties does not affect the institution of monarchy which any true Tory would know is beyond reproach
Beyond belief, the royal Conservative party, is he not a member of said family ? Are you implying his behavior is therefore beyond reproach. HMQ has made a serious misjudgment by havin him escort her to church, thereby demonstrating support for him. He is taking the monarchy down if they don’t act
He is not taking the monarchy down at all, the Queen still has a 72% positive approval rating even if Andrew's is just 19%.
If the LDs are doing so well in Surrey and surrounding areas, they must be doing pretty badly in the rest of the country if the latest opinion polls are right.
Yes, hopefully just helping to peel off enough Labour Remain votes to flip a load of Con-Lab marginals in the Midlands and North into the blue column.
Meanwhile, plenty of decent second places further South, but not many outright wins.
One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.
However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.
Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.
Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.
Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.
Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
Re: the NI thing. Some final salary pension schemes base "pensionable" earnings on salary minus the lower NI threshold. A rise in the NI threshold is going to reduce their pensions, isn't it?
Sam Gyimah taking a complete pummelling on LBC; I actually feel sorry for him. He was on his knees and then they brought in a question about tuition fees; apparently they won't change under the LibDems (when even the Tories are talking about cuts to them).
It has not at all, Prince Andrew at stepping back from public duties does not affect the institution of monarchy which any true Tory would know is beyond reproach
Beyond belief, the royal Conservative party, is he not a member of said family ? Are you implying his behavior is therefore beyond reproach. HMQ has made a serious misjudgment by havin him escort her to church, thereby demonstrating support for him. He is taking the monarchy down if they don’t act
He is not taking the monarchy down at all, the Queen still has a 72% positive approval rating even if Andrew's is just 19%.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
If the advance in social media advertising supported using AI continues unchecked, the British system too will be heading towards a wealth buys elections system.
Wealth does not really buy US elections, ask Mitt Romney or Ross Perot and you can make plenty of political social media ads cheaply
You do need to be raise eye wateringly large amunts of money to run for office in the US.
And it is not the cost of making the social media ads that costs the money. It's paying companies like Cambridge Analytica to target those ads effectively, which costs the money.
And the party machine raises it for you, even as a billionaire Trump only won as the Republican candidate
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Dudley for Dudley will never work
I love nominative determinism
My favourite - Dr. Richard Chopp Leading urologist specialising in vasectomies
I'd avoid Dr O. M. Bogus - seen in a suburb of Stuttgart in the mid 1980s.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
If the advance in social media advertising supported using AI continues unchecked, the British system too will be heading towards a wealth buys elections system.
Wealth does not really buy US elections, ask Mitt Romney or Ross Perot and you can make plenty of political social media ads cheaply
It's more that it's pay to play. You need either a gargantuan fund raising operation or to be Bernie Sanders - while the highest spender doesn't necessarily win, there could be individual Democrats out the race well before we get to the convention having already spent more than the whole cost of one of our General Elections.
Evening all, I am sure lots of you watched the Liberal candidate for East Dunbartonshire do her "violet Elizabeth" act earlier this evening and while no doubt some of you were whooping with delight, I am sure the majority of us were totally underwhelmed. Interesting to see Ed Conway on SKY News take her financial costings and "tear them to shreds". He even said that in some respects, the programme she announced would be more of a continuation of austerity than the Conservative plans.
As for Nick Watt's tweets, apart from being a "pretty boy" does anyone outside the Guardian consider him to be a serious journalist. All this Liberal talk reminds me so much of the "decapitation policy" of 2005 when instead of unseating Theresa May, Oliver Letwin and Michael Howard with their targeted campaigns, we saw all 3 increase their majorities.
Meanwhile I wonder how shooglie the peg Tim Farron sits on in Westmorland has become? Could the Liberals begin the election campaign with 20 MPs and end it with fewer of them
Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority
Quite the opposite.
According to the IFS the biggest beneficiaries of this change in cash terms are the those in the top 10% income bracket. The biggest beneficiaries as a % of income are those in the 7th decile. The poorest 10% gain least both in absolute and % terms.
One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.
However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.
Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.
Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.
Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.
Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
Voting to leave the EU was the biggest act of collective misjudgment the UK has ever undertaken, it has spawned two horrendous lab/con leaders we are on our second Ge and nobody is offering to address the reasons people voted leave apart from immigration which they really aren’t. The whole thing is bloody ridiculous, nothing more than a Johnson vanity project and everybody else will have to pay for it.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
Dudley for Dudley will never work
I love nominative determinism
My favourite - Dr. Richard Chopp Leading urologist specialising in vasectomies
I'd avoid Dr O. M. Bogus - seen in a suburb of Stuttgart in the mid 1980s.
I went to medical school with Sandra De'Ath. Not sure where she works now.
One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.
However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.
Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.
Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.
Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.
Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
Voting to leave the EU was the biggest act of collective misjudgment the UK has ever undertaken, it has spawned two horrendous lab/con leaders we are on our second Ge and nobody is offering to address the reasons people voted leave apart from immigration which they really aren’t. The whole thing is bloody ridiculous, nothing more than a Johnson vanity project and everybody else will have to pay for it.
Brexit didn’t spawn Corbyn. You could argue Corbyn enabled the Brexit vote by him going AWOL.
Just to note that @Nigel_Foremain calling my contributions "lightweight" on the previous thread (after an admittedly bitchy comment about his apparent understanding of the US electoral system) was my highlight of an otherwise very frustrating day.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
If the advance in social media advertising supported using AI continues unchecked, the British system too will be heading towards a wealth buys elections system.
Wealth does not really buy US elections, ask Mitt Romney or Ross Perot and you can make plenty of political social media ads cheaply
You do need to be raise eye wateringly large amunts of money to run for office in the US.
And it is not the cost of making the social media ads that costs the money. It's paying companies like Cambridge Analytica to target those ads effectively, which costs the money.
And the party machine raises it for you, even as a billionaire Trump only won as the Republican candidate
But that is exactly what I am talking about. It is not rich individuals, it is rich parties that win elections in the US.
One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.
However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.
Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.
Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.
Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.
Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
Voting to leave the EU was the biggest act of collective misjudgment the UK has ever undertaken, it has spawned two horrendous lab/con leaders we are on our second Ge and nobody is offering to address the reasons people voted leave apart from immigration which they really aren’t. The whole thing is bloody ridiculous, nothing more than a Johnson vanity project and everybody else will have to pay for it.
Brexit didn’t spawn Corbyn. You could argue Corbyn enabled the Brexit vote by him going AWOL.
I thought twice about that as I typed it but then felt it has given him cover but yes it didn’t spawn him he just enabled it
Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority
Quite the opposite.
According to the IFS the biggest beneficiaries of this change in cash terms are the those in the top 10% income bracket. The biggest beneficiaries as a % of income are those in the 7th decile. The poorest 10% gain least both in absolute and % terms.
It has not at all, Prince Andrew at stepping back from public duties does not affect the institution of monarchy which any true Tory would know is beyond reproach
Beyond belief, the royal Conservative party, is he not a member of said family ? Are you implying his behavior is therefore beyond reproach. HMQ has made a serious misjudgment by havin him escort her to church, thereby demonstrating support for him. He is taking the monarchy down if they don’t act
He is not taking the monarchy down at all, the Queen still has a 72% positive approval rating even if Andrew's is just 19%.
Re: the NI thing. Some final salary pension schemes base "pensionable" earnings on salary minus the lower NI threshold. A rise in the NI threshold is going to reduce their pensions, isn't it?
Isn't it just swings and roundabouts? They save tax now and get hit by it later, which if they're over the lifetime cap could be a net win.
There may not be enough DB schemes still open to accruals to matter, anyway. Anyone lucky enough to still be in a private sector one can probably take the hit. It might matter for the civil service schemes, but I don't know enough about how they work to comment. Would (I guess) only affect average salary schemes prospectively, not retrospectively.
Good explanatory video, but I doubt the compact will get enough ratifications to come into effect in my lifetime.
in order to pass in a particular state the democrats (who have the disadvantage with the current situation) have to control all three branches of government in the state (lower and upper house plus governor) otherwise it won't happen.
even in the event that it did come into effect it'd not take much for the Republicans to overturn it in a particular state.
If this proposal really does crop up in the Labour manifesto then hopefully it will get both barrels the same way that the Dementia Tax did. Both proposals have a similar effect, i.e. of confiscating large chunks of the inheritances of middle class heirs.
Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
One single allowance (the current income tax personal allowance) before income and capital gains are taxed.
However, perhaps surprisingly - no mention of any changes to Inheritance Tax.
Good grief. That's going to go down like a tonne of bricks in the Home Counties, surely? Scares exactly the sort of soft Tory votes who support Remain because they think Brexit will harm then financially, and are therefore flirting with voting Lib Dem.
Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.
Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
You make the serious error of assuming Remainers are driven by selfishness whereas those I know are driven by a belief that Britain in the EU is good for the country and for Europe.
Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
Voting to leave the EU was the biggest act of collective misjudgment the UK has ever undertaken, it has spawned two horrendous lab/con leaders we are on our second Ge and nobody is offering to address the reasons people voted leave apart from immigration which they really aren’t. The whole thing is bloody ridiculous, nothing more than a Johnson vanity project and everybody else will have to pay for it.
Brexit didn’t spawn Corbyn. You could argue Corbyn enabled the Brexit vote by him going AWOL.
I thought twice about that as I typed it but then felt it has given him cover but yes it didn’t spawn him he just enabled it
But Christ knows what did spawn Corbyn. It’s like anticipating what the Queen Alien looks like in Aliens. Before you know obvs.
Ed Conway...even said that in some respects, the programme she announced would be more of a continuation of austerity than the Conservative plans
A programme leading to a balanced budget is more of a continuation of austerity than the programme of a party which has declared an end to austerity and is splurging money as if it comes from a high-pressure hose?
Great new policy from Boris too to raise the NI threshold to £12 500, targeted at precisely the low and middle income Leave voters he needs for a majority
Quite the opposite.
According to the IFS the biggest beneficiaries of this change in cash terms are the those in the top 10% income bracket. The biggest beneficiaries as a % of income are those in the 7th decile. The poorest 10% gain least both in absolute and % terms.
One thing the coalition benefit cuts taught us is that, whilst the tories may hold the 10th decile in contempt, many in the 7th decile hold the 10th decile in contempt.
I see the Earl of Inverness is taking a back seat. I wonder how long it will be until he takes a front seat on a plane to the Land of Uncle Sam! Unfortunately for him there will be little sympathy for him across the UK given his behaviour in recent years, associating with rich sons of dubious fathers from the Middle East and former Soviet states.
On the election, given that the postal votes will be starting to drop on doorsteps in the coming days, do most PBers agree that if Labour hasn't started to close the gap in the polls by the time of the Sunday papers this weekend, the chances of stopping a Tory majority are probably gone and it is then just a matter of whether Boris and chums can avoid dropping a clanger in the remaining 2 weeks which will determine how far north of 325 seats we see at 10pm on 12th December in the exit poll.
Comments
DR's majority will be cut from 23,000 - don't think there's any serious doubt about that !- but anything less than 10,000 would astound me. I'd hazard 13,000 to 15,000. But then I got 2017 spectacularly wrong.
I'll feel slightly more confident about predictions having actually met the punters.
I think the Lib Dems are making the same mistake they made in 2005 when they decided to focus on high profile decapitation campaigns at the cost of more winnable seats.
Republicanism gave the US Donald Trump, without the excuse that he was just an accident of birth.
And here's a handy tip: when considering the case against an English posho, I always apply the test: Yebbut did he fuck the country like David Cameron fucked it? This gives a useful sense of proportion.
I look forward to debating another time why I feel the inordinate amounts of money required to stand (as he himself subsequently pointed out) make the US system inherently weaker than ours, among other ills.
In other (possibly lightweight?) news, I've discovered that Labour's PPC for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley, and am probably more amused by this than is appropriate. I am also disappointed the Conservatives haven't recruited Dudley Dursley to stand against her.
I could now go on a 10 page rant on this subject, but I'll spare you all.
Don't tell me she's another pole-dancer ...
following URL:
https://tinyurl.com/WikipediaLinksDontWork
and lose the presidency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUX-frlNBJY&feature=youtu.be
Can you hear the lambs Clarice?
Seems to be no detail on what the single threshold will be, either. I assume it would have to be close to the current income-only system in order to be neutral in terms of overall tax receipts.
Rubbish policy. Not very liberal. Fails to appreciate the benefit to our economy of encouraging investment in British companies and the attached risk.
Well, I say funny. Anyone who is leaning on Twitter's terms of service (or their enforcement of same) to provide a definitive view on what is and is not acceptable conduct, has left the path of reason.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Queen_Elizabeth_II
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Prince_Andrew_Duke_of_York
My favourite -
Dr. Richard Chopp Leading urologist specialising in vasectomies
And it is not the cost of making the social media ads that costs the money. It's paying companies like Cambridge Analytica to target those ads effectively, which costs the money.
Meanwhile, plenty of decent second places further South, but not many outright wins.
Still, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised you think greed is a big motivator for others.
As for Nick Watt's tweets, apart from being a "pretty boy" does anyone outside the Guardian consider him to be a serious journalist. All this Liberal talk reminds me so much of the "decapitation policy" of 2005 when instead of unseating Theresa May, Oliver Letwin and Michael Howard with their targeted campaigns, we saw all 3 increase their majorities.
Meanwhile I wonder how shooglie the peg Tim Farron sits on in Westmorland has become? Could the Liberals begin the election campaign with 20 MPs and end it with fewer of them
According to the IFS the biggest beneficiaries of this change in cash terms are the those in the top 10% income bracket. The biggest beneficiaries as a % of income are those in the 7th decile. The poorest 10% gain least both in absolute and % terms.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/BN251_Boris_Johnson's_tax_policies.pdf
There may not be enough DB schemes still open to accruals to matter, anyway. Anyone lucky enough to still be in a private sector one can probably take the hit.
It might matter for the civil service schemes, but I don't know enough about how they work to comment. Would (I guess) only affect average salary schemes prospectively, not retrospectively.
even in the event that it did come into effect it'd not take much for the Republicans to overturn it in a particular state.
I have only once and I always wonder if they would ever have known when I sold a second home but being honest declared it and paid 20k in tax
Personally speaking I actually think that taxing inheritances is one of the less objectionable types of taxation - and, after all, the cost of looking after an ageing population has to be borne somewhere - but an awful lot of voters hated the idea the last time around. And anything that damages Labour at this election is to be welcomed.
No. Shit. Sherlock.
On the election, given that the postal votes will be starting to drop on doorsteps in the coming days, do most PBers agree that if Labour hasn't started to close the gap in the polls by the time of the Sunday papers this weekend, the chances of stopping a Tory majority are probably gone and it is then just a matter of whether Boris and chums can avoid dropping a clanger in the remaining 2 weeks which will determine how far north of 325 seats we see at 10pm on 12th December in the exit poll.