Somewhat paradoxically, the more Labour gains, the more they squeeze the Lib Dem vote and presumably the larger the Tory lead in these London seats. Oh dear dear dear
And the more they save the southern shires.......a double edged sword for REMAIN
I live with 4 separate NHS dentists within a 10 min walk of me.
Scotland is better.
Without knowing where you live that’s meaningless. If you live in Golspie I will agree that’s impressive. If you live in Kilmarnock, less so.
I must have 10 in the equivalent distance of Cannock, although getting them to accept new NHS patients is hard work. But in Penkridge it would be rather fewer.
I was at the dentist this week and the receptionist informed me they had 40,000 patients, I think the number of dentists is 6.
A seat is an X-Y marginal if * X and Y came 1st and 2nd in either order, * majority <10% of votes, and * gap between 1st and 3rd was >12% of votes.
A seat is an X-Y-Z marginal if * X, Y, Z came 1st, 2nd, 3rd in any order, * majority was <10% of votes, and * gap between 1st and 3rd was <12% of votes.
I have only considered Lab, Con, and LD and haven't checked which parties are fielding candidates where in 2019. The definition of an X-Y-Z marginal was deliberately made loose in an effort to find some.
Marginals
Lab-Con: 100
(East 7 East Midlands 15 London 11 North East 4 North West 16 South East 10 South West 6 Wales 9 West Midlands 9 Yorkshire and The Humber 13)
Lab-LD: 2
(Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam)
LD-Con: 11
(Carshalton and Wallington Cheadle Cheltenham Eastbourne Kingston and Surbiton North Devon North Norfolk Oxford West and Abingdon Richmond Park St Ives Westmorland and Lonsdale )
Lab-Con-LD: none
Comment
That's 100 Lab-Con marginals, including 57 in the North or Midlands. How well do Isaac Levido or Dominic Cummings know the electorates there? Given DC's experience at his uncle's Klute nightclub in Durham I'm sure he knows how to entice students in on Friday and Saturday nights with quadruple slammers, and at 10 Downing Street he has demonstrated that he knows how to go outside and order security in to frogmarch a miscreant off the premises. He did well in the all-postal NE devolution referendum of 2004 too, as well as in some other referendum in 2016 that some people still talk about. But this is different. Alastair Campbell has suggested he may be suffering from "I got played by Benedict Cumberbatch" syndrome. This looks tough for the Tories. They've been totally effing about with the Brexit "Party". I doubt BXP will affect the result in more than 5 seats. It's going to come down to how well the Tories can get their message across in the North and Midlands that immigration is the top issue and they're superhard on it.
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
What does your model predict overall?
Con/Lab/LD 319/224/34
After latest ComRes
Con/Lab/LD 320/225/32
After latest Opinium
Con/lab/LD 323/222/32
Does anyone seriously believe this? A 7% swing to the Tories and they don't quite get an official majority? I know that the current boundaries are seriously prejudicial to them but that is just impossible.
Lib Dems down to 14% in both the Opinium and Comres polls.
I’m sticking to my prediction they’ll be lucky to poll 12% come the GE.
Do you expect something of a localised surge then? Back to the 2000s days?
I think the Lib Dems need to put all their resources into fewer seats . I do hope Labour voters will really think before they vote in Lib Dem v Tory marginals.
And in some seats Labour shouldn’t bother campaigning. They need to be realists , if they split the vote the Tories are going to hold on in many of those seats .
Opinium shows the Tories would be in big trouble in Remain seats then, if the Remain vote doesn't get split.
Which it will
That looks to be the case at present
Remain voters tend to have some assets and aren't keen on economic disruption. What makes you think they'll go for a socialist crank when they can just vote Lib Dem?
Shocking Opinium for Labour . If you can’t close the gap after the dreadful NHS figures then really !
The Comres is better but still no closing of the gap .
We need to see the fieldwork dates to see whether there’s a big difference in those between the two .
The deltapoll constiuency polls show a confused REMAIN vote. Even if Labour close the gap will people vote tactically in the "right" way to stop a tory majority?
Doubtful
Comres does show the gap closing (Lab+3, Con+1), Opinium shows it widening. Duh. I think the tactical vote wilkl sort itself out in some seats (my impression from biased Portsmouth S Labour sources is that the Libdem push is falling back now), but it'll be difficult in seats like Kensington where there's a sitting Labour MP.
Lib Dems down to 14% in both the Opinium and Comres polls.
I’m sticking to my prediction they’ll be lucky to poll 12% come the GE.
Thought experiment:
What is better for the LDs
1. a 25% overall share with 25% in 600 seats and therefore no seats gained 2. a 12.5% share with 50% in 100 seats and 5% in 500 seats and 100 seats gained?
Look at the SNP with a 4% national share! It depends how focused your targeting is.
As the LD vote is focused on target seats and share grows, and diminishes in other seats as it is squeezed by labour, you would expect the LD national share to diminish and that wouldn't be a cause for concern.
Labour have to crash and burn this time for the good of the country, every none Tory should vote for a none labour alternative. Until this Labour Party are destroyed the nasty party get a free pass coming a poor second on a true socialist manifesto does nothing for the people that need a labour government. They are not going to win, they are the political bed blockers who are stopping the development of a true and viable anti Tory movement that this country needs.
Lib Dems down to 14% in both the Opinium and Comres polls.
I’m sticking to my prediction they’ll be lucky to poll 12% come the GE.
Do you expect something of a localised surge then? Back to the 2000s days?
I think the Lib Dems need to put all their resources into fewer seats . I do hope Labour voters will really think before they vote in Lib Dem v Tory marginals.
And in some seats Labour shouldn’t bother campaigning. They need to be realists , if they split the vote the Tories are going to hold on in many of those seats .
The problem is, what are Lib Dem/Tory marginals then? None of these were Lib Dem/Tory marginals in the last election.
Labour are going south they will be sub 200 and in the 24/26 region their offer and leader are thirty years past their sell by date, not that the tories are any better but that’s politics
33% in one poll this evening...
They hit 33% during the 1983 campaign as I posted earlier.
Opinium shows the Tories would be in big trouble in Remain seats then, if the Remain vote doesn't get split.
Which it will
That looks to be the case at present
Remain voters tend to have some assets and aren't keen on economic disruption. What makes you think they'll go for a socialist crank when they can just vote Lib Dem?
I don't mind them voting Lib Dem, they just all should and not split the vote.
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
What does your model predict overall?
Con/Lab/LD 319/224/34
After latest ComRes
Con/Lab/LD 320/225/32
After latest Opinium
Con/lab/LD 323/222/32
Does anyone seriously believe this? A 7% swing to the Tories and they don't quite get an official majority? I know that the current boundaries are seriously prejudicial to them but that is just impossible.
So looks like one Labour loss but potentially offset by two potential Lib Dem gains if Labour voters vote tactically.
Interesting. Voters need to be smart.
Interesting - if you don't mind Labour losing the Midlands and the North.......
The voting intentions are a bit all over the place tonight but we're in the odd position of potentially the Lib Dems shrinking nationally but gaining in individual seats, which is something of a return to the early 2000s.
I wonder if the Tories in the South might not potentially (not yet) be in big trouble.
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.
Besides being a retort to what you said sure do you remember conflating the burqa with the Jewish skullcap?
I remember saying that those who attack people for choosing to wear a burqa are equally as bad as those who attack people who choose to wear a kippah. I still can't understand why you thought that was so controversial. All I want is for people irrespective of their faith to be left alone and not intimidated or bullied. Your remarkable outburst in response to that radical notion was... interesting.
That's not what was said, I would agree with that, attacking anyone under any circumstances is wrong.
I was very clearly arguing for tolerance in the way people choose to dress by saying that we wouldn't find it acceptable for someone to ridicule the yarmulke (although I spelled it wrong, so apologies for that).
You then decided to drag the KKK into the discussion. Later you doubled down on that comparison.
Those quotes there show exactly the difference between what you claimed was said and what was really said. Nobody was defending "those who attack people for choosing to wear a burqa". We weren't discussing physically or otherwise attacking those wearing the burqa, we were discussing the garment itself and whether or not it should be illegal, not attacking people wearing it.
And comparing the burqa - a nasty, misogynistic, dehumanising garment with no religious bearing designed to culturally separate people - to the yarmuka, a simple skullcap that doesn't mask or dehumanise its wearer is quite frankly antisemitic.
The yarmuka is not a misogynistic, dehumanising garment and to conflate it with the burqa is racist to Jews and Muslims and it is also extremely ignorant of Islam. Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
A very comparable garment to the burqa is worn by some in the west. Equally as nasty, dehumanising etc it is the KKK's outfit. Again designed to dehumanise and seperate people, again designed to hide people from head to toe. Both only worn by extremists with an extreme distorted view of religion. Unlike simple religious garments like the yarmuka, kufi, hijab or turban etc
If Labour have dropped the FOM then sense has prevailed . That would have been a gift to the Tories and the BP.
We'll still hammer them for ever suggesting it in the first place. It's clearly what all their activists want.
If that's the line that Tory activists are instructed to sell on the doorstep - "Labour's policy on FOM is fake, and if they get elected they'll go back to their previous policy" - I'll be interested to know how it goes down.
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
What does your model predict overall?
Con/Lab/LD 319/224/34
After latest ComRes
Con/Lab/LD 320/225/32
After latest Opinium
Con/lab/LD 323/222/32
Does anyone seriously believe this? A 7% swing to the Tories and they don't quite get an official majority? I know that the current boundaries are seriously prejudicial to them but that is just impossible.
The position on the spreads is because people are very cautious about a mid campaign swing to Labour like last time. If people could bet on the seats with a guaranteed 10% vote lead for the Tories the market would look very different.
People have pointed out that your model allows a material swing to the Tories with them losing seats as a result. The fact you're so comfortable with this as a reasonable outcome of your model makes it very hard to believe it was neutrally created.
Lib Dems down to 14% in both the Opinium and Comres polls.
I’m sticking to my prediction they’ll be lucky to poll 12% come the GE.
This was their big opportunity to get 20%-25% and they don't seem to be taking advantage of it so far. But there's plenty of time to go.
I think to be honest the games up for the Lib Dems there . The big problem is Swinsons constant attacks on Corbyn and Labour , this is pissing off Labour voters who would be minded to help the Lib Dems .
If the Lib Dems got to 20% to 25% that would split the votes so badly the Tories would end up with a huge majority .
The Tories are never getting 44%. I can't see them getting 40%.
The big difference in so many of these polls is the Labour number. They are either looking at a sub Gordo drubbing or a now creeping to a respectable 32-33% share.
I think the later is much more likely than the former. In fact the former is just impossible, especially with Santa Corbyn handing out freebies left, right and centre.
Why is the former impossible ?
Labour are certainly doing worse in Scotland, Wales and everywhere north of Birmingham than they were in 2010.
Labour have polled less than 29% for what 50 years? That isn't going to change this time. I just don't believe any of these polls with Labour on ~22%.
1983 was 27.6%.
I could see them going lower but not up against Johnson.
27.6% in the UK, 28.3% in GB.
Interesting that they were as high as 33% in the polls a few weeks before the election, as this video shows (at 15 secs):
It is vaguely interesting that at the beginning the presenter (Robert Kee?) corrected the question from "if there was" to "if there were an election tomorrow". Fascinating too that Michael Foot was allowed to answer without continual interruptions from the interviewer, and that Foot did answer without pivoting away to completely different subjects.
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
What does your model predict overall?
Con/Lab/LD 319/224/34
After latest ComRes
Con/Lab/LD 320/225/32
After latest Opinium
Con/lab/LD 323/222/32
Does anyone seriously believe this? A 7% swing to the Tories and they don't quite get an official majority? I know that the current boundaries are seriously prejudicial to them but that is just impossible.
The position on the spreads is because people are very cautious about a mid campaign swing to Labour like last time. If people could bet on the seats with a guaranteed 10% vote lead for the Tories the market would look very different.
People have pointed out that your model allows a material swing to the Tories with them losing seats as a result. The fact you're so comfortable with this as a reasonable outcome of your model makes it very hard to believe it was neutrally created.
Lib Dems down to 14% in both the Opinium and Comres polls.
I’m sticking to my prediction they’ll be lucky to poll 12% come the GE.
This was their big opportunity to get 20%-25% and they don't seem to be taking advantage of it so far. But there's plenty of time to go.
I think to be honest the games up for the Lib Dems there . The big problem is Swinsons constant attacks on Corbyn and Labour , this is pissing off Labour voters who would be minded to help the Lib Dems .
If the Lib Dems got to 20% to 25% that would split the votes so badly the Tories would end up with a huge majority .
Not pissing off the many (former) Lab voters pissed off with Corbyn.
At the 2017 GE 50% of all votes cast for the Lib Dems were in just 86 seats. The other 50% of Lib Dems votes covered 543 seats. Whatever the national opinion polls say it's really just those first 86 that we're realistically interested in this time and whether we're on 12% or 18% doesn't matter so much so long as the votes we get are in the right places.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
What does your model predict overall?
Con/Lab/LD 319/224/34
After latest ComRes
Con/Lab/LD 320/225/32
After latest Opinium
Con/lab/LD 323/222/32
Does anyone seriously believe this? A 7% swing to the Tories and they don't quite get an official majority? I know that the current boundaries are seriously prejudicial to them but that is just impossible.
The position on the spreads is because people are very cautious about a mid campaign swing to Labour like last time. If people could bet on the seats with a guaranteed 10% vote lead for the Tories the market would look very different.
People have pointed out that your model allows a material swing to the Tories with them losing seats as a result. The fact you're so comfortable with this as a reasonable outcome of your model makes it very hard to believe it was neutrally created.
What would be my motive?
This place is full of rampers. I don't think you are one, but I find it impossible to understand how you can be so blase when people point out how odd the outputs you're creating are.
Last night you confirmed that even after turning off your tactical voting assumptions, your model allows a more than doubled Tory vote lead with the Tories losing seats.
If you think that's fine, more power to you, but I certainly hope anyone reading your posts does their own research before putting their hand in their pocket.
Lib Dems down to 14% in both the Opinium and Comres polls.
I’m sticking to my prediction they’ll be lucky to poll 12% come the GE.
This was their big opportunity to get 20%-25% and they don't seem to be taking advantage of it so far. But there's plenty of time to go.
I think to be honest the games up for the Lib Dems there . The big problem is Swinsons constant attacks on Corbyn and Labour , this is pissing off Labour voters who would be minded to help the Lib Dems .
If the Lib Dems got to 20% to 25% that would split the votes so badly the Tories would end up with a huge majority .
Wrong analysis corbyn is poison, a disaster to any democrat but he still is only marginally worse than Johnson so if at the end of the campaign people still vote for the most incompetent leaders that have ever presented themselves as potential PM s that’s their problem
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
I am reminded that the YouGov MRP, whilst almost totally magical, didn't do well in Scotland.
This opinion wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact you also have a Scottish model (I’m ashamed to admit I forgot the acronym)?
POSSOM!
It's just a bit of fun. It's pretty pessimistic on the LD chances, predicting losses which I just don't see.
The interesting thing is it seems very sensitive to turn out, and as a result I need to feed in 2005 to make it more accurate (but I haven't found a collated constituency results for 2005). But I also need a way of estimating 2019 turnout.
At the 2017 GE 50% of all votes cast for the Lib Dems were in just 86 seats. The other 50% of Lib Dems votes covered 543 seats. Whatever the national opinion polls say it's really just those first 86 that we're realistically interested in this time and whether we're on 12% or 18% doesn't matter so much so long as the votes we get are in the right places.
Worth noting the SLDs gained seats on a reducing share in 2017. English LDs look good to me for 30+ seats.
Lib Dems down to 14% in both the Opinium and Comres polls.
I’m sticking to my prediction they’ll be lucky to poll 12% come the GE.
This was their big opportunity to get 20%-25% and they don't seem to be taking advantage of it so far. But there's plenty of time to go.
I think to be honest the games up for the Lib Dems there . The big problem is Swinsons constant attacks on Corbyn and Labour , this is pissing off Labour voters who would be minded to help the Lib Dems .
If the Lib Dems got to 20% to 25% that would split the votes so badly the Tories would end up with a huge majority .
Not pissing off the many (former) Lab voters pissed off with Corbyn.
I’m pissed off with Corbyn but also pissed off with Swinson . I would however vote Lib Dem to stop the Tories .
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
Isn't the Fench ban on facial veiling, not headscarves? Even the Queen wears a headscarf.
The Lib Dems around 14% and huge swings (Yes yes I know it is SW London) to them in those seats don't quite add up to me.
It adds up if you are a rich lefty Remainer with property wealth and cant stand the thought of a Corbyn government but would rather cut off your left arm than vote Tory.
(As an aside Finchley and Kensington aren't south west London, which maybe aides your point a bit).
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
I may be wrong but I think they have banned the wimple. But yes that too is comparable to the hijab etc not the burqa.
Its overkill. There is a public safety argument on banning coverings that mask the wearers face in certain places - whether that be the burqa, the KKK's outfit, or a balaclava or motorbike helmet.
To ban the hijab, wimple, kufi, yarmuka, turban etc without banning hats of all variety though is illogical. There is a difference between a mask and a hat.
This story deserves more coverage. Some truly evil acts are being performed by the Chinese.
One of my complaints about the Leaver vituperation of the EU is that it ignores the extraordinarily bad things (concentration camps, vivisection) being done by the Chinese authorities against its minorities. This is a Stalin-sized problem and we're ignoring it.
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
Isn't the Fench ban on facial veiling, not headscarves? Even the Queen wears a headscarf.
They are discussing banning headscarves in schools at the moment.
This place is full of rampers. I don't think you are one, but I find it impossible to understand how you can be so blase when people point out how odd the outputs you're creating are.
Last night you confirmed that even after turning off your tactical voting assumptions, your model allows a more than doubled Tory vote lead with the Tories losing seats.
If you think that's fine, more power to you, but I certainly hope anyone reading your posts does their own research before putting their hand in their pocket.
The Lib Dems around 14% and huge swings (Yes yes I know it is SW London) to them in those seats don't quite add up to me.
It adds up if you are a rich lefty Remainer with property wealth and cant stand the thought of a Corbyn government but would rather cut off your left arm than vote Tory.
(As an aside Finchley and Kensington aren't south west London, which maybe aides your point a bit).
Voting Tory is incompatible with sleeping at night there is a valid and worthwhile alternative hat does not involve the labour lunatics
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
Isn't the Fench ban on facial veiling, not headscarves? Even the Queen wears a headscarf.
They are discussing banning headscarves in schools at the moment.
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
Isn't the Fench ban on facial veiling, not headscarves? Even the Queen wears a headscarf.
They are discussing banning headscarves in schools at the moment.
This story deserves more coverage. Some truly evil acts are being performed by the Chinese.
One of my complaints about the Leaver vituperation of the EU is that it ignores the extraordinarily bad things (concentration camps, vivisection) being done by the Chinese authorities against its minorities. This is a Stalin-sized problem and we're ignoring it.
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
Isn't the Fench ban on facial veiling, not headscarves? Even the Queen wears a headscarf.
They are discussing banning headscarves in schools at the moment.
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
This story deserves more coverage. Some truly evil acts are being performed by the Chinese.
One of my complaints about the Leaver vituperation of the EU is that it ignores the extraordinarily bad things (concentration camps, vivisection) being done by the Chinese authorities against its minorities. This is a Stalin-sized problem and we're ignoring it.
We’re not the only one though, what is the EU line? Beyond handwringing.
I note Macron’s visit to China a couple of weeks ago not majoring on Xingiang.
If you want a view on what is being discussed in China (within CP parameters), Caixin Global is helpful.
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
At the Bong of 22:00 on 12/12/19
PS will Big Ben Bong?
No. Although the sound effect will doubtless be played by the TV companies, of course.
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
I’ve been thinking about that and you must be right. If we don’t see volatility after the first debate (where I’m sure the narrative from the media will be that Corbyn did ok but Boris was dreadful) then we’ll know.
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
At the Bong of 22:00 on 12/12/19
PS will Big Ben Bong?
I think for betting purposes that may be a little too late. On Big Ben I think that the will use a recording.
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
Isn't the Fench ban on facial veiling, not headscarves? Even the Queen wears a headscarf.
Probably, but both wimple and hijab cover the neck as well as the head. They're practically identical in what they cover. I would have thought banning the wimple would get France into trouble with the Catholic church.
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
Re: leadership debates or at least boris v Corby
All the home nations are playing at the same time that night bar England- is that by accident or design ??
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
We've not even had the rest of tonight's crop of polls yet.
I've this horrible sinking feeling that Opinium will be an outlier, and the Labour numbers will otherwise be continuing to head upwards...
Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
Agreed. Also comparable - basically the same garment as the hijab - is the wimple. How on earth French law or policy might ban the hijab without also banning the wimple I can't imagine.
Isn't the Fench ban on facial veiling, not headscarves? Even the Queen wears a headscarf.
They are discussing banning headscarves in schools at the moment.
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
At the Bong of 22:00 on 12/12/19
PS will Big Ben Bong?
No. Although the sound effect will doubtless be played by the TV companies, of course.
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
We've not even had the rest of tonight's crop of polls yet.
I've this horrible sinking feeling that Opinium will be an outlier, and the Labour numbers will otherwise be continuing to head upwards...
I don't think any poll will stop that sinking feeling!
Pb Passwords. From this incident report, it looks like Vanilla was vulnerable to a data leak. For that reason, pb-ers who reset their password to be the same as the old one should change it asap (as well as not use it on other sites). https://status.vanillaforums.com/incidents/2zdqxf3bt7mj
At what point do we conclude that this is like most elections where the campaign makes very little difference and parties finish within sight of where they started with 2017 being very much an exception?
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
There are still the manifestos.
No one reads the manifestos. But they obviously give stories to the media and May's manifesto gave stories redux. I doubt anyone on any side will be so stupid this time.
The main difference I am seeing this time to date is that Labour are being given an much harder ride than they were in 2017 where no one was particularly interested in what they said because they were perceived to be so far behind. The higher starting base for Labour and what happened in 2017 are forcing the media to pay attention and that is a bit of a problem for Corbyn and McDonnell.
Comments
I’m sticking to my prediction they’ll be lucky to poll 12% come the GE.
*dramatically faints*
No holds barred then.
Sell prices Con/Lab/LD are 334/206/33 and have been for a couple of hours.
That said, quick way to annoy a Chinese politician is to call them a capitalist.
A seat is an X-Y marginal if
* X and Y came 1st and 2nd in either order,
* majority <10% of votes, and
* gap between 1st and 3rd was >12% of votes.
A seat is an X-Y-Z marginal if
* X, Y, Z came 1st, 2nd, 3rd in any order,
* majority was <10% of votes, and
* gap between 1st and 3rd was <12% of votes.
I have only considered Lab, Con, and LD and haven't checked which parties are fielding candidates where in 2019. The definition of an X-Y-Z marginal was deliberately made loose in an effort to find some.
Marginals
Lab-Con: 100
(East 7
East Midlands 15
London 11
North East 4
North West 16
South East 10
South West 6
Wales 9
West Midlands 9
Yorkshire and The Humber 13)
Lab-LD: 2
(Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam)
LD-Con: 11
(Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Kingston and Surbiton
North Devon
North Norfolk
Oxford West and Abingdon
Richmond Park
St Ives
Westmorland and Lonsdale )
Lab-Con-LD: none
Comment
That's 100 Lab-Con marginals, including 57 in the North or Midlands. How well do Isaac Levido or Dominic Cummings know the electorates there? Given DC's experience at his uncle's Klute nightclub in Durham I'm sure he knows how to entice students in on Friday and Saturday nights with quadruple slammers, and at 10 Downing Street he has demonstrated that he knows how to go outside and order security in to frogmarch a miscreant off the premises. He did well in the all-postal NE devolution referendum of 2004 too, as well as in some other referendum in 2016 that some people still talk about. But this is different. Alastair Campbell has suggested he may be suffering from "I got played by Benedict Cumberbatch" syndrome. This looks tough for the Tories. They've been totally effing about with the Brexit "Party". I doubt BXP will affect the result in more than 5 seats. It's going to come down to how well the Tories can get their message across in the North and Midlands that immigration is the top issue and they're superhard on it.
Conservative 4/1 Westmoreland Betfair might be of interest.
Interesting. Voters need to be smart.
Just vote for who you want.
According to this a 7% swing would give them 84 additional seats.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
And in some seats Labour shouldn’t bother campaigning. They need to be realists , if they split the vote the Tories are going to hold on in many of those seats .
What is better for the LDs
1. a 25% overall share with 25% in 600 seats and therefore no seats gained
2. a 12.5% share with 50% in 100 seats and 5% in 500 seats and 100 seats gained?
Look at the SNP with a 4% national share! It depends how focused your targeting is.
As the LD vote is focused on target seats and share grows, and diminishes in other seats as it is squeezed by labour, you would expect the LD national share to diminish and that wouldn't be a cause for concern.
It makes it a lot harder to vote tactically.
The Squeeze is on.
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets
I wonder if the Tories in the South might not potentially (not yet) be in big trouble.
And comparing the burqa - a nasty, misogynistic, dehumanising garment with no religious bearing designed to culturally separate people - to the yarmuka, a simple skullcap that doesn't mask or dehumanise its wearer is quite frankly antisemitic.
The yarmuka is not a misogynistic, dehumanising garment and to conflate it with the burqa is racist to Jews and Muslims and it is also extremely ignorant of Islam. Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
A very comparable garment to the burqa is worn by some in the west. Equally as nasty, dehumanising etc it is the KKK's outfit. Again designed to dehumanise and seperate people, again designed to hide people from head to toe. Both only worn by extremists with an extreme distorted view of religion. Unlike simple religious garments like the yarmuka, kufi, hijab or turban etc
People have pointed out that your model allows a material swing to the Tories with them losing seats as a result. The fact you're so comfortable with this as a reasonable outcome of your model makes it very hard to believe it was neutrally created.
If the Lib Dems got to 20% to 25% that would split the votes so badly the Tories would end up with a huge majority .
Can conservative Democrat incumbent hold off the rich Republican challenger in the deep south?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnBelforLA/status/1195722571498631168
It's just a bit of fun. It's pretty pessimistic on the LD chances, predicting losses which I just don't see.
The interesting thing is it seems very sensitive to turn out, and as a result I need to feed in 2005 to make it more accurate (but I haven't found a collated constituency results for 2005). But I also need a way of estimating 2019 turnout.
(As an aside Finchley and Kensington aren't south west London, which maybe aides your point a bit).
Its overkill. There is a public safety argument on banning coverings that mask the wearers face in certain places - whether that be the burqa, the KKK's outfit, or a balaclava or motorbike helmet.
To ban the hijab, wimple, kufi, yarmuka, turban etc without banning hats of all variety though is illogical. There is a difference between a mask and a hat.
https://mobile.twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1195798260885196801
Especially Muslim majority countries.
Not yet obviously, its far too early, but after the leadership debates? Because if that day comes the spreads are going to move majorly and there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
PS will Big Ben Bong?
I note Macron’s visit to China a couple of weeks ago not majoring on Xingiang.
If you want a view on what is being discussed in China (within CP parameters), Caixin Global is helpful.
All the home nations are playing at the same time that night bar England- is that by accident or design ??
I've this horrible sinking feeling that Opinium will be an outlier, and the Labour numbers will otherwise be continuing to head upwards...
Another one
https://status.vanillaforums.com/incidents/2zdqxf3bt7mj
The main difference I am seeing this time to date is that Labour are being given an much harder ride than they were in 2017 where no one was particularly interested in what they said because they were perceived to be so far behind. The higher starting base for Labour and what happened in 2017 are forcing the media to pay attention and that is a bit of a problem for Corbyn and McDonnell.