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  • The strange thing is we simultanouesly see Labour's best result of the campaign so far of 33% and yet all see the Tories having their best at 45%

    Somebody is going to get the result extraordinarily wrong but I have no idea who. I hope it's the pollsters with big leads!

    We need Survation to settle this!
  • I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?

    On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
    oh get a grip...
    2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...
    I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.

    Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)
  • This is what is going to dominant for the next day or two.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019

    Have I got this right?

    YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?

    There is another one with a 16% lead.

    I believe the trend in all but one is Tory lead grows (and the other it remains the same, despite the write up incorrectly stating the gap closing).
  • That said vegans are opposed to Hawaiian pizzas, so they aren't all bad.

    Ahem...

    https://lovingitvegan.com/thin-crust-hawaiian-vegan-pizza/
    That does it, Vegans are in the same category as Prince Andrew.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,264
    Ave_it said:

    Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:

    Party GE Seats
    Con ................ 405
    Lab ................. 155
    LD .................... 20
    SNP .................. 48
    Green ................. 1
    Plaid C ............... 3
    N.I. ................... 18

    Total .............. 650

    BOOM 1931 central!!!

    I will take 330 😊😊😊
    330 won't be enough to avoid major ructions over the EU trade agreement terms at the arse end of 2020.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.


    The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.

    They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
    Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.
    Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.
    In all seriousness, I do wonder if the media have any more Boris scandals in the back of the filing cabinet.
    Short of clear, personal criminality or video of him spewing racial epithets I'm not sure what else could possibly have an effect. Very few people will not know of at least the impression of him personally as, er, unreliable. He's been called racist and sexist enough times. He's acted unlawfully in an attempt to force through his political agenda. One of the things he was first famous for was lying and trying to help get someone beaten up.

    What else could there be?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759

    Have I got this right?

    YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?

    Opinium 16%.

    3 polls showing an increased Tory lead, 2 showing the lead remaining the same, one of the latter having failed to adjust to reflect where TBP are actually standing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Ave_it said:

    Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:

    Party GE Seats
    Con ................ 405
    Lab ................. 155
    LD .................... 20
    SNP .................. 48
    Green ................. 1
    Plaid C ............... 3
    N.I. ................... 18

    Total .............. 650

    BOOM 1931 central!!!

    I will take 330 😊😊😊
    330 won't be enough to avoid major ructions over the EU trade agreement terms at the arse end of 2020.
    After the last 2 years, I think we'd all settle for at least managing to get onto the next phase of arguments, rather than rehashing the current ones again! I'd prefer a cobbled together refendum 330, but never mind.
  • Pulpstar said:

    In seats with a majority under 10,000 Tories lead by 20 points
    Con 45%
    Lab 25%

    Is that Tory majority under 10,000 or both ways ?

    Kin Hell
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.


    The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.

    They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
    Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.
    Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.
    In all seriousness, I do wonder if the media have any more Boris scandals in the back of the filing cabinet.
    Short of clear, personal criminality or video of him spewing racial epithets I'm not sure what else could possibly have an effect. Very few people will not know of at least the impression of him personally as, er, unreliable. He's been called racist and sexist enough times. He's acted unlawfully in an attempt to force through his political agenda. One of the things he was first famous for was lying and trying to help get someone beaten up.

    What else could there be?
    I don't know. The British public can be weird, some scandals they just don't give a toss about (despite it being a serious scandal) and others they get really really angry about.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:

    Party............ GE Seats
    Con ................ 405
    Lab ................. 155
    LD .................... 20
    SNP .................. 48
    Green ................. 1
    Plaid C ............... 3
    N.I. ................... 18

    Total .............. 650

    My spreadex bets look good on that.

    Not sure that I want to buy Con at 347, but selling Lab on 204 looks good.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited November 2019

    nunu2 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Go out and canvass and then you'll see.
    I hate canvassing.

    I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.

    Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
    LDs will do decently in the prosperous outer ring of London. But it wont be enough.

    Here is anther prediction. The tories are going to do a lot better in Scotland than consensus predicts. I write as a scot...

    nunu2 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Go out and canvass and then you'll see.
    I hate canvassing.

    I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.

    Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
    LDs will do decently in the prosperous outer ring of London. But it wont be enough.

    Here is anther prediction. The tories are going to do a lot better in Scotland than consensus predicts. I write as a scot...
    First point yes, Beckenham is my constituency and the Lib Dems are very visible and will poll around 30% IMO cleaning up the Labour 2017 vote and coming a good second. I like our local Tory MP but not sure everyone does. Bromley and Orpington will see impressive Lib Dem performances too but won’t come close to winning the seats but it positions them well for the next election.

    In Scotland I assume the Tories will lose the 2? Seats in the Central belt but should keep hold of 6/7 in the Borders/Aberdeenshire I would think. I would like to hear from Scots in the know if avoiding Indyref2 is more important than repelling Brexit as I guess that’s the key aspect for the Tories and Unionists with regards keeping hold of seats.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344

    Barensian model might just give the Tories a majority of 1 on those numbers...

    LOL! 😂😂😂
    Only just. 😜
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802

    It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.

    Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.

    In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.

    So Yougov are basically saying that 17% actually understates the Tory lead where it actually matters? I'd really love this to be true but jeez...
    It means all the money Labour spends in this election on defending 50 seats will be wasted.

    They will have built a firebreak of petrol cans.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?

    On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
    oh get a grip...
    2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...
    I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.

    Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)
    It's not an issue with insight - logically I can see that the Tories are doing well. It's an issue with pessimism. That's all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,264

    Have I got this right?

    YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?

    There is another one with a 16% lead.

    I believe the trend in all but one is Tory lead grows (and the other it remains the same).
    Ah yes Opinium, sorry. Yes definitely looks like an uptick in the Tory lead average.

    A downbeat day for those of us in the 'anyone but Boris' camp.

    Still, 26 days to go yet! :smile:
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited November 2019

    Have I got this right?

    YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?

    And Opinium 16% lead.

    But BGM is pre Brexit party taking outer thingy
  • The strange thing is we simultanouesly see Labour's best result of the campaign so far of 33% and yet all see the Tories having their best at 45%

    Somebody is going to get the result extraordinarily wrong but I have no idea who. I hope it's the pollsters with big leads!

    We need Survation to settle this!

    Why?

    Survation may be both wrong and complacent, the others having all adjusted their methodology after their last debacles...
  • Prince Andrew doesn't regret his relationship with a nonce.


    FFS
  • Trying to account for ComRes, is that before BXP stood down? Do they account for BXP?
  • I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?

    On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
    oh get a grip...
    2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...
    I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.

    Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)
    It's not an issue with insight - logically I can see that the Tories are doing well. It's an issue with pessimism. That's all.
    Then "get a grip" instead.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Though this line is quite a caveat:

    "The biggest Tory lead with YouGov since May 2017, a month before the last election"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I see the Tories stood in 647 seats in 2015, and 638 in 2017 apparently. Only mildly committed to their hopeless 'Let's stand in NI' strategy I would guess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019

    Prince Andrew doesn't regret his relationship with a nonce.


    FFS

    He reveals a “peculiar medical condition which is that I don’t sweat or I didn’t sweat at the time".

    He says he was given an overdose of adrenalin during the Falklands War when he was shot and it was “almost impossible for me to sweat”.

    He adds that the condition has only been alleviated in recent years.

    Hmmmmm.......about as convincing as McDonnell claiming he never sees any of those Marxist flags at the rallies he speak at.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:

    Party............ GE Seats
    Con ................ 405
    Lab ................. 155
    LD .................... 20
    SNP .................. 48
    Green ................. 1
    Plaid C ............... 3
    N.I. ................... 18

    Total .............. 650

    1983: Labour won 209 seats, including 41 in Scotland - i.e. 168 in England and Wales.

    Is Corbyn going to do worse than Michael Foot down South, as well as being wiped out North of the Border? That does seem somewhat improbable, even if the Conservatives win well.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Tories most seats, movement from 1.07/1.08 to 1.06/1.07

    Cannot believe I got 1.15

    Madness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2019

    I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?

    On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
    oh get a grip...
    2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...
    I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.

    Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)
    It's not an issue with insight - logically I can see that the Tories are doing well. It's an issue with pessimism. That's all.
    Then "get a grip" instead.
    No harm in being a wet blanket. Or at least I hope so or I am permanently screwed. Some, like the good Dr Prasannan, might need a bit of calming down rather than getting too excited :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    I have been deeply ashamed of the many Labour moderate MP:s who hate JC but have gone completely silent since the calling of the GE as they campaign to let him get his hands on power. If the polls stay roughly the same I wonder if they maight gain some courage and finally if belatedly speak up. LOtherwise frankly they all fully deserve to sink without trace alongside him.
  • Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tories most seats, movement from 1.07/1.08 to 1.06/1.07

    Cannot believe I got 1.15

    Madness.
    For those with deep pockets, laying a Labour majority at 42-46 (several hundred quid available) is absolutely free money.

    But you do need a few grand spare to pound it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Trying to account for ComRes, is that before BXP stood down? Do they account for BXP?

    Brexit on 5% with ComRes, 6% with Opinium.

    It's either a difference in methodology or it's chance, presumably?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!

    I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.

    On these polls there is no way the LibDems are taking anywhere with a 10k Conservative majority.
    Wimbledon 16k majority. They will win a handful with massive swings but fall short in a lot.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    So...about this thread header predicting an anti-Tory landslide...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited November 2019
    edit
  • Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:

    Party............ GE Seats
    Con ................ 405
    Lab ................. 155
    LD .................... 20
    SNP .................. 48
    Green ................. 1
    Plaid C ............... 3
    N.I. ................... 18

    Total .............. 650

    Normally large majorities are unhealthy for the country. But with Corbyn and McDonnell running the campaign and leadership they are that is a result this country needs.

    Let the message be sent clearly that Labour needs to sort itself out if they want rid of the Tories. Don't leave it close with them thinking 'change Corbyn and one more heave will get us to a Pidcock/Bailey etc led utopia'.
  • Backing Brexit Party in the 0-9 seats box on Betfair at 1.08 seems a better bet than Tory most seats now, IMO.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,264

    So...about this thread header predicting an anti-Tory landslide...

    Events, dear boy, events.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Prince Andrew doesn't regret his relationship with a nonce.


    FFS

    He reveals a “peculiar medical condition which is that I don’t sweat or I didn’t sweat at the time".

    He says he was given an overdose of adrenalin during the Falklands War when he was shot and it was “almost impossible for me to sweat”.

    He adds that the condition has only been alleviated in recent years.

    Hmmmmm.......about as convincing as McDonnell claiming he never sees any of those Marxist flags at the rallies he speak at.
    Hmm, a pretty odd claim.

    Adrenaline has a short half life, and sweating is modulated by acetylcholine, a completely distinct neuro-transmitter.

    https://www.openanesthesia.org/sweat_glands_innervation/

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:

    Party............ GE Seats
    Con ................ 405
    Lab ................. 155
    LD .................... 20
    SNP .................. 48
    Green ................. 1
    Plaid C ............... 3
    N.I. ................... 18

    Total .............. 650

    1983: Labour won 209 seats, including 41 in Scotland - i.e. 168 in England and Wales.

    Is Corbyn going to do worse than Michael Foot down South, as well as being wiped out North of the Border? That does seem somewhat improbable, even if the Conservatives win well.
    Given how much his supporters fanatically believe in him, doing worse than the leader who has entered mythic political folklore would be a fitting outcome in forcing the party to recognise he is not the Jezziah (no Life of Brian please).

    I know, I know, it's not 2017 even though the 'worse than 83' predictions looked sound at that time too, once, and I don't think it would be the best outcome for the country to see that happen anyway, but I try to look for the positives in even a bad scenario (hence people hoping Boris would not behold to the ERG types if he did win big).
  • I am just waiting for the polls to be fed into the electoral models and predict a 700 seat majority for Boris....

    Models are only guesswork dressed up.
  • Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still two short, eh? 😉
  • Foxy said:

    Prince Andrew doesn't regret his relationship with a nonce.


    FFS

    He reveals a “peculiar medical condition which is that I don’t sweat or I didn’t sweat at the time".

    He says he was given an overdose of adrenalin during the Falklands War when he was shot and it was “almost impossible for me to sweat”.

    He adds that the condition has only been alleviated in recent years.

    Hmmmmm.......about as convincing as McDonnell claiming he never sees any of those Marxist flags at the rallies he speak at.
    Hmm, a pretty odd claim.

    Adrenaline has a short half life, and sweating is modulated by acetylcholine, a completely distinct neuro-transmitter.

    https://www.openanesthesia.org/sweat_glands_innervation/

    Whoever came up with his lines to take clearly never went to medical school.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,264

    Trying to account for ComRes, is that before BXP stood down? Do they account for BXP?

    Brexit on 5% with ComRes, 6% with Opinium.

    It's either a difference in methodology or it's chance, presumably?
    Do we get reliable access to the underlying data tables? I can rarely seem to find any.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,815
    The no sweat claim needs a David Icke gif. Pure reptilian awesomeness
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    edited November 2019

    History doesn't repeat itself.

    Corbyn is toxic.

    UK voters are not marxists

    UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

    The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

    That's all you need to know.....

    BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?
  • Prince Andrew must be a friend of Boris.

    This is one hell of a dead cat.
  • Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    I think you need to turn it off and on again...If the Tories win by 12%, there is not a cats chance in hell they don't get a significant majority.
  • https://twitter.com/loubegatherion/status/1195789319249760258

    Anyone done the Maths on how they're modelling turnout? Could this explain the discrepancy in the polling?
  • I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
  • Speaking of interesting medical conditions, can I recommend the Pneumonia Diet? I lost half a stone in four days.
    This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The day the polls turned
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    The strange thing is we simultanouesly see Labour's best result of the campaign so far of 33% and yet all see the Tories having their best at 45%

    Somebody is going to get the result extraordinarily wrong but I have no idea who. I hope it's the pollsters with big leads!

    We need Survation to settle this!

    Why?

    Survation may be both wrong and complacent, the others having all adjusted their methodology after their last debacles...
    So you can trust none of them. All they know is Corbyn is toxic.
  • I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.

    Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.
  • Foxy said:

    Though this line is quite a caveat:

    "The biggest Tory lead with YouGov since May 2017, a month before the last election"
    Tomorrow's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW should be, ah, "interesting" :)
  • felix said:

    I have been deeply ashamed of the many Labour moderate MP:s who hate JC but have gone completely silent since the calling of the GE as they campaign to let him get his hands on power. If the polls stay roughly the same I wonder if they maight gain some courage and finally if belatedly speak up. LOtherwise frankly they all fully deserve to sink without trace alongside him.

    ^ This
  • Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    PMSL we were joking saying maybe 1 seat majority in your model but you're seriously going with 1 seat short of a majority on tonights polls? 😂😂😂
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited November 2019

    He reveals a “peculiar medical condition which is that I don’t sweat or I didn’t sweat at the time".

    It is called "Being a woman"

    We do not sweat. We glow from within :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    https://twitter.com/loubegatherion/status/1195789319249760258

    Anyone done the Maths on how they're modelling turnout? Could this explain the discrepancy in the polling?

    No, but that's a very pessimistic expectation of turnout for most of the demographic bands.
  • kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
    It means that the model is bollox.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    The BMG poll can't be taken entirely seriously because apparently they haven't taken into account the fact that the Brexit Party aren't standing everywhere. That's why the Brexit Party are higher than in the other polls.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,264

    Prince Andrew must be a friend of Boris.

    This is one hell of a dead cat.

    Tbf in view of the latest polls I think it's Jezza that may be benefit from the deceased feline tonight. :wink:
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still two short, eh? 😉
    That's an effective majority of six I think.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    https://twitter.com/loubegatherion/status/1195789319249760258

    Anyone done the Maths on how they're modelling turnout? Could this explain the discrepancy in the polling?

    Certainty to vote is the hardest thing for pollsters to get right, but a massive difference to outcomes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.

    Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2019
    Nigelb said:

    I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.

    Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?
    Dishonourable people have a very skewed view of what is honourable behaviour of course. Wouldn't want to make a fuss. Or its like those rich nobility in period dramas who are massively rude yet think they are the soul of politeness.
  • Nigelb said:

    I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.

    Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?
    Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Cameron managed to bag 306 seats in 2010 off 36% of the vote, despite only taking one seat in Scotland and with the Lib Dems a full 8% higher than in your current rolling average.

    The boundaries haven't changed since.

    Now, how does an 11% Con lead not translate into some sort of majority?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still two short, eh? 😉
    That's an effective majority of six I think.
    Bookies won't pay out on that though!
  • If they’re still up the PaddyPower markets for Welsh Tory targets: Gower, Delyn, Bridgend and Alyn and Deeside would all look very interesting for the Tories on these numbers.

    They were at evens or slightly longer earlier today.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited November 2019
    Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:

    Con 42.4%
    Lab 29.6%
    LD 14.0%
    BRX 6.0%

    Averages without BMG (which isn't adjusting for the Brexit Party standing in only a minority of seats)

    Con 43.8%
    Lab 29.8%
    LD 13.5%
    BRX 5.3%
  • Anyway, enough excitement for one evening.

    Still 3 1/2 weeks to go and anything can happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Just found the Tories in Hartlepool on Betfair at 5.0.
    I know Richard Tice is running but I'd have thought the Tory vote would be reasonably resilient up there ? Also Tory candidate is from the north east whereas Tice errm... is definitely not.
    Also on Labour here from previous around even money.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.

    Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.
    And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    BTW, people who are easily triggered should avoid the film Last Christmas due to some Brexit references in it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
    The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.

    But dyor or use your own heuristics. I'm not trying to persuade anyone. I'm just sharing the result of a detailed constituency model that doesn't just use simplistic swings or top down rules of thumb and tries to model the lumpiness of the votes and tactical voting.
  • Nigelb said:

    I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.

    Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?
    Yes, and he said that being friends with a nonce was not something he regretted because of the deals he made from that friendship.
    Least he’s honest.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Averages of the 5 polls tonight including BMG:

    Con 42.4%
    Lab 29.6%
    LD 14.0%
    BRX 6.0%

    Averages without BMG:

    Con 43.8%
    Lab 29.8%
    LD 13.5%
    BRX 5.3%

    BMG? Sorry, seem to have missed that in all of this evening's, er, "excitement".
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still two short, eh? 😉
    That's an effective majority of six I think.
    Lets compare to the 2015 General Election as a sanity check.

    Tories UP 4.0% - yet DOWN 6 seats
    Labour DOWN 0.3% - DOWN 11 seats
    Lib Dems UP 7.4% - UP 24 seats

    Tory-Lab Lead UP 4.3%

    Please explain.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Brom said:

    Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!

    I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.

    Wokingham was never on the table. Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it). I think Eastleigh may be possible, partly because of the appalling behaviour of Mims Davies in doing the chicken run. Of other seats Southport and Cheadle are the more obvious northern seats which are vulnerable, and St Ives is possible in the SW. One additionally interesting seat is Vauxhall as, although it is Labour held, a LD win will deprive Boris of a solid Brexit vote.
    I am expecting 25-30 LD seats. The existing ones should hold. Add circa 10 gains from the conservatives from the various seats we have listed, 4-5 from Labour (Cambridge/LeedsNW/Sheffield Hallam/Vauxhall/Bermondsey) and 1-2 from the Nats (NE Fife/Ceredigion).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,264
    I've got a great track record with my political preditctions over the past few years. I predicted:

    A hung parliament in the 2015 GE
    Remain would win the EU ref
    Hilary to win 2016 POTUS
    A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE
    May's deal to pass the HoC
    May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE
    Boris to fail to get a new Deal
    No December 2019 election

    I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.

    Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency! :wink:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Corbyn has the confidence of the utterly certain individual. I bet right now he is looking at the larger Tory leads in several polls and thinking that will only make his truth speaking in the debate even more powerful in polling effect afterwards. McDonnell, not so much I think.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Cameron managed to bag 306 seats in 2010 off 36% of the vote, despite only taking one seat in Scotland and with the Lib Dems a full 8% higher than in your current rolling average.

    The boundaries haven't changed since.

    Now, how does an 11% Con lead not translate into some sort of majority?
    Listen Black Book.....Barnesian is my only hope....do not burst my bubble please

  • Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,759
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
    The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.
    And yet Yougov say that the Tories are doing even better where it matters. Not sure how that is consistent with your model.
  • These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.

    I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2019
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
    The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.
    I accept that there is very uneven distribution, but at some point even with uneven distribution I'd think a lead of sufficient size will win out to a small majority. Where the point is I do not know, but at some point a big lead cannot all be piling up in the wrong place surely?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Normally a11% lead would be 100 Maj.

    The unwind in the marginals doesn't help us but if we are 11% clear we have a majority. Probably 30 to 50
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Effect all five polls tonight;

    Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
    Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
    LD 15.3 (-1.1)
    BXP 7.5 (-0.9)

    Seats
    Con 324 (+5)
    Lab 221 (-3)
    LD 32 (-2)

    Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
    The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.
    I think the theoretical highest vote share for a party that doesn't win a majority is about 74.9%, maybe more with differential turnout and unevenly sized constituencies, but the Conservative vote must be close to record badly distributed in your model.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just found the Tories in Hartlepool on Betfair at 5.0.
    I know Richard Tice is running but I'd have thought the Tory vote would be reasonably resilient up there ? Also Tory candidate is from the north east whereas Tice errm... is definitely not.
    Also on Labour here from previous around even money.

    Conservatives at 5/2 to win Don Valley on Betfair might be of interest as well.

    How much of a personal vote CF has built among Labour leavers is the big question.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,264
    edited November 2019
    IshmaelZ said:

    I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.

    Nah, there have been tossers in the line to the throne since time immemorial.
    And Trump is probably only the third creepiest pervert in the White House in my lifetime, whereas the UK throne has been unblemished throughout.
    Welcome to PB!

    :lol:

    Edit: Are you 250 years old btw?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,815
    Sweatless nonce. Shame Tom Watson didn't go after him when he was truffle hunting pedos
This discussion has been closed.