I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
oh get a grip...
2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...
I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.
Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)
Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party GE Seats Con ................ 405 Lab ................. 155 LD .................... 20 SNP .................. 48 Green ................. 1 Plaid C ............... 3 N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
BOOM 1931 central!!!
I will take 330 😊😊😊
330 won't be enough to avoid major ructions over the EU trade agreement terms at the arse end of 2020.
People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.
They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.
Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.
In all seriousness, I do wonder if the media have any more Boris scandals in the back of the filing cabinet.
Short of clear, personal criminality or video of him spewing racial epithets I'm not sure what else could possibly have an effect. Very few people will not know of at least the impression of him personally as, er, unreliable. He's been called racist and sexist enough times. He's acted unlawfully in an attempt to force through his political agenda. One of the things he was first famous for was lying and trying to help get someone beaten up.
3 polls showing an increased Tory lead, 2 showing the lead remaining the same, one of the latter having failed to adjust to reflect where TBP are actually standing.
Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party GE Seats Con ................ 405 Lab ................. 155 LD .................... 20 SNP .................. 48 Green ................. 1 Plaid C ............... 3 N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
BOOM 1931 central!!!
I will take 330 😊😊😊
330 won't be enough to avoid major ructions over the EU trade agreement terms at the arse end of 2020.
After the last 2 years, I think we'd all settle for at least managing to get onto the next phase of arguments, rather than rehashing the current ones again! I'd prefer a cobbled together refendum 330, but never mind.
People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.
They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.
Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.
In all seriousness, I do wonder if the media have any more Boris scandals in the back of the filing cabinet.
Short of clear, personal criminality or video of him spewing racial epithets I'm not sure what else could possibly have an effect. Very few people will not know of at least the impression of him personally as, er, unreliable. He's been called racist and sexist enough times. He's acted unlawfully in an attempt to force through his political agenda. One of the things he was first famous for was lying and trying to help get someone beaten up.
What else could there be?
I don't know. The British public can be weird, some scandals they just don't give a toss about (despite it being a serious scandal) and others they get really really angry about.
Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats Con ................ 405 Lab ................. 155 LD .................... 20 SNP .................. 48 Green ................. 1 Plaid C ............... 3 N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
My spreadex bets look good on that.
Not sure that I want to buy Con at 347, but selling Lab on 204 looks good.
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
Go out and canvass and then you'll see.
I hate canvassing.
I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.
Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
LDs will do decently in the prosperous outer ring of London. But it wont be enough.
Here is anther prediction. The tories are going to do a lot better in Scotland than consensus predicts. I write as a scot...
First point yes, Beckenham is my constituency and the Lib Dems are very visible and will poll around 30% IMO cleaning up the Labour 2017 vote and coming a good second. I like our local Tory MP but not sure everyone does. Bromley and Orpington will see impressive Lib Dem performances too but won’t come close to winning the seats but it positions them well for the next election.
In Scotland I assume the Tories will lose the 2? Seats in the Central belt but should keep hold of 6/7 in the Borders/Aberdeenshire I would think. I would like to hear from Scots in the know if avoiding Indyref2 is more important than repelling Brexit as I guess that’s the key aspect for the Tories and Unionists with regards keeping hold of seats.
I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
oh get a grip...
2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...
I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.
Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)
It's not an issue with insight - logically I can see that the Tories are doing well. It's an issue with pessimism. That's all.
I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
oh get a grip...
2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...
I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.
Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)
It's not an issue with insight - logically I can see that the Tories are doing well. It's an issue with pessimism. That's all.
I see the Tories stood in 647 seats in 2015, and 638 in 2017 apparently. Only mildly committed to their hopeless 'Let's stand in NI' strategy I would guess.
Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats Con ................ 405 Lab ................. 155 LD .................... 20 SNP .................. 48 Green ................. 1 Plaid C ............... 3 N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
1983: Labour won 209 seats, including 41 in Scotland - i.e. 168 in England and Wales.
Is Corbyn going to do worse than Michael Foot down South, as well as being wiped out North of the Border? That does seem somewhat improbable, even if the Conservatives win well.
I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
oh get a grip...
2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...
I refer to my earlier point - learn some history. Just repeating the lessons of last time is the mistake everyone made in 2015.
Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)
It's not an issue with insight - logically I can see that the Tories are doing well. It's an issue with pessimism. That's all.
Then "get a grip" instead.
No harm in being a wet blanket. Or at least I hope so or I am permanently screwed. Some, like the good Dr Prasannan, might need a bit of calming down rather than getting too excited
I have been deeply ashamed of the many Labour moderate MP:s who hate JC but have gone completely silent since the calling of the GE as they campaign to let him get his hands on power. If the polls stay roughly the same I wonder if they maight gain some courage and finally if belatedly speak up. LOtherwise frankly they all fully deserve to sink without trace alongside him.
Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.
On these polls there is no way the LibDems are taking anywhere with a 10k Conservative majority.
Wimbledon 16k majority. They will win a handful with massive swings but fall short in a lot.
Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats Con ................ 405 Lab ................. 155 LD .................... 20 SNP .................. 48 Green ................. 1 Plaid C ............... 3 N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
Normally large majorities are unhealthy for the country. But with Corbyn and McDonnell running the campaign and leadership they are that is a result this country needs.
Let the message be sent clearly that Labour needs to sort itself out if they want rid of the Tories. Don't leave it close with them thinking 'change Corbyn and one more heave will get us to a Pidcock/Bailey etc led utopia'.
Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats Con ................ 405 Lab ................. 155 LD .................... 20 SNP .................. 48 Green ................. 1 Plaid C ............... 3 N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
1983: Labour won 209 seats, including 41 in Scotland - i.e. 168 in England and Wales.
Is Corbyn going to do worse than Michael Foot down South, as well as being wiped out North of the Border? That does seem somewhat improbable, even if the Conservatives win well.
Given how much his supporters fanatically believe in him, doing worse than the leader who has entered mythic political folklore would be a fitting outcome in forcing the party to recognise he is not the Jezziah (no Life of Brian please).
I know, I know, it's not 2017 even though the 'worse than 83' predictions looked sound at that time too, once, and I don't think it would be the best outcome for the country to see that happen anyway, but I try to look for the positives in even a bad scenario (hence people hoping Boris would not behold to the ERG types if he did win big).
Speaking of interesting medical conditions, can I recommend the Pneumonia Diet? I lost half a stone in four days. This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.
I have been deeply ashamed of the many Labour moderate MP:s who hate JC but have gone completely silent since the calling of the GE as they campaign to let him get his hands on power. If the polls stay roughly the same I wonder if they maight gain some courage and finally if belatedly speak up. LOtherwise frankly they all fully deserve to sink without trace alongside him.
The BMG poll can't be taken entirely seriously because apparently they haven't taken into account the fact that the Brexit Party aren't standing everywhere. That's why the Brexit Party are higher than in the other polls.
I was wrong, Prince Charles becoming King will not be the best thing to happen to the Republican cause, it is this interview with Prince Andrew.
Did he really say that his problem was that he was too honourable ?
Dishonourable people have a very skewed view of what is honourable behaviour of course. Wouldn't want to make a fuss. Or its like those rich nobility in period dramas who are massively rude yet think they are the soul of politeness.
Cameron managed to bag 306 seats in 2010 off 36% of the vote, despite only taking one seat in Scotland and with the Lib Dems a full 8% higher than in your current rolling average.
The boundaries haven't changed since.
Now, how does an 11% Con lead not translate into some sort of majority?
If they’re still up the PaddyPower markets for Welsh Tory targets: Gower, Delyn, Bridgend and Alyn and Deeside would all look very interesting for the Tories on these numbers.
They were at evens or slightly longer earlier today.
Just found the Tories in Hartlepool on Betfair at 5.0. I know Richard Tice is running but I'd have thought the Tory vote would be reasonably resilient up there ? Also Tory candidate is from the north east whereas Tice errm... is definitely not. Also on Labour here from previous around even money.
Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.
But dyor or use your own heuristics. I'm not trying to persuade anyone. I'm just sharing the result of a detailed constituency model that doesn't just use simplistic swings or top down rules of thumb and tries to model the lumpiness of the votes and tactical voting.
Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.
Wokingham was never on the table. Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it). I think Eastleigh may be possible, partly because of the appalling behaviour of Mims Davies in doing the chicken run. Of other seats Southport and Cheadle are the more obvious northern seats which are vulnerable, and St Ives is possible in the SW. One additionally interesting seat is Vauxhall as, although it is Labour held, a LD win will deprive Boris of a solid Brexit vote. I am expecting 25-30 LD seats. The existing ones should hold. Add circa 10 gains from the conservatives from the various seats we have listed, 4-5 from Labour (Cambridge/LeedsNW/Sheffield Hallam/Vauxhall/Bermondsey) and 1-2 from the Nats (NE Fife/Ceredigion).
I've got a great track record with my political preditctions over the past few years. I predicted:
A hung parliament in the 2015 GE Remain would win the EU ref Hilary to win 2016 POTUS A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE May's deal to pass the HoC May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE Boris to fail to get a new Deal No December 2019 election
I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.
Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency!
Corbyn has the confidence of the utterly certain individual. I bet right now he is looking at the larger Tory leads in several polls and thinking that will only make his truth speaking in the debate even more powerful in polling effect afterwards. McDonnell, not so much I think.
Cameron managed to bag 306 seats in 2010 off 36% of the vote, despite only taking one seat in Scotland and with the Lib Dems a full 8% higher than in your current rolling average.
The boundaries haven't changed since.
Now, how does an 11% Con lead not translate into some sort of majority?
Listen Black Book.....Barnesian is my only hope....do not burst my bubble please
Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.
And yet Yougov say that the Tories are doing even better where it matters. Not sure how that is consistent with your model.
These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.
Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.
I accept that there is very uneven distribution, but at some point even with uneven distribution I'd think a lead of sufficient size will win out to a small majority. Where the point is I do not know, but at some point a big lead cannot all be piling up in the wrong place surely?
Still no majority on 11.4% lead? Blimey that's rough for FPTP.
The vote is very unevenly distributed. There are lumps of SNP and LD concentrations and piles of redundant votes in safe Tory seats. The quoted lead is a single metric of the national Tory lead over Labour. It is not reliable in this strange election.
I think the theoretical highest vote share for a party that doesn't win a majority is about 74.9%, maybe more with differential turnout and unevenly sized constituencies, but the Conservative vote must be close to record badly distributed in your model.
Just found the Tories in Hartlepool on Betfair at 5.0. I know Richard Tice is running but I'd have thought the Tory vote would be reasonably resilient up there ? Also Tory candidate is from the north east whereas Tice errm... is definitely not. Also on Labour here from previous around even money.
Conservatives at 5/2 to win Don Valley on Betfair might be of interest as well.
How much of a personal vote CF has built among Labour leavers is the big question.
Comments
Somebody is going to get the result extraordinarily wrong but I have no idea who. I hope it's the pollsters with big leads!
We need Survation to settle this!
Show some insight man! If it was that easy there wouldn't be betting markets (or at least none anyone would make any money on!)
I believe the trend in all but one is Tory lead grows (and the other it remains the same, despite the write up incorrectly stating the gap closing).
What else could there be?
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1195816171007873029
3 polls showing an increased Tory lead, 2 showing the lead remaining the same, one of the latter having failed to adjust to reflect where TBP are actually standing.
Not sure that I want to buy Con at 347, but selling Lab on 204 looks good.
In Scotland I assume the Tories will lose the 2? Seats in the Central belt but should keep hold of 6/7 in the Borders/Aberdeenshire I would think. I would like to hear from Scots in the know if avoiding Indyref2 is more important than repelling Brexit as I guess that’s the key aspect for the Tories and Unionists with regards keeping hold of seats.
They will have built a firebreak of petrol cans.
A downbeat day for those of us in the 'anyone but Boris' camp.
Still, 26 days to go yet!
But BGM is pre Brexit party taking outer thingy
Survation may be both wrong and complacent, the others having all adjusted their methodology after their last debacles...
FFS
"The biggest Tory lead with YouGov since May 2017, a month before the last election"
He says he was given an overdose of adrenalin during the Falklands War when he was shot and it was “almost impossible for me to sweat”.
He adds that the condition has only been alleviated in recent years.
Hmmmmm.......about as convincing as McDonnell claiming he never sees any of those Marxist flags at the rallies he speak at.
Is Corbyn going to do worse than Michael Foot down South, as well as being wiped out North of the Border? That does seem somewhat improbable, even if the Conservatives win well.
Madness.
But you do need a few grand spare to pound it.
It's either a difference in methodology or it's chance, presumably?
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
Seats
Con 324 (+5)
Lab 221 (-3)
LD 32 (-2)
Let the message be sent clearly that Labour needs to sort itself out if they want rid of the Tories. Don't leave it close with them thinking 'change Corbyn and one more heave will get us to a Pidcock/Bailey etc led utopia'.
Adrenaline has a short half life, and sweating is modulated by acetylcholine, a completely distinct neuro-transmitter.
https://www.openanesthesia.org/sweat_glands_innervation/
I know, I know, it's not 2017 even though the 'worse than 83' predictions looked sound at that time too, once, and I don't think it would be the best outcome for the country to see that happen anyway, but I try to look for the positives in even a bad scenario (hence people hoping Boris would not behold to the ERG types if he did win big).
Models are only guesswork dressed up.
This is one hell of a dead cat.
Anyone done the Maths on how they're modelling turnout? Could this explain the discrepancy in the polling?
This was helped by the hospital food: not that it was bad, but potion control has never been my strong suite.
We do not sweat. We glow from within
The boundaries haven't changed since.
Now, how does an 11% Con lead not translate into some sort of majority?
They were at evens or slightly longer earlier today.
Con 42.4%
Lab 29.6%
LD 14.0%
BRX 6.0%
Averages without BMG (which isn't adjusting for the Brexit Party standing in only a minority of seats)
Con 43.8%
Lab 29.8%
LD 13.5%
BRX 5.3%
Still 3 1/2 weeks to go and anything can happen.
I know Richard Tice is running but I'd have thought the Tory vote would be reasonably resilient up there ? Also Tory candidate is from the north east whereas Tice errm... is definitely not.
Also on Labour here from previous around even money.
But dyor or use your own heuristics. I'm not trying to persuade anyone. I'm just sharing the result of a detailed constituency model that doesn't just use simplistic swings or top down rules of thumb and tries to model the lumpiness of the votes and tactical voting.
Tories UP 4.0% - yet DOWN 6 seats
Labour DOWN 0.3% - DOWN 11 seats
Lib Dems UP 7.4% - UP 24 seats
Tory-Lab Lead UP 4.3%
Please explain.
I am expecting 25-30 LD seats. The existing ones should hold. Add circa 10 gains from the conservatives from the various seats we have listed, 4-5 from Labour (Cambridge/LeedsNW/Sheffield Hallam/Vauxhall/Bermondsey) and 1-2 from the Nats (NE Fife/Ceredigion).
A hung parliament in the 2015 GE
Remain would win the EU ref
Hilary to win 2016 POTUS
A Tory landslide in the 2017 GE
May's deal to pass the HoC
May to lead the Tories into the 2022 GE
Boris to fail to get a new Deal
No December 2019 election
I'd just like to make another prediction: Tories to win a majority in 2019.
Here's hoping I maintain my predicting consistency!
I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.
The unwind in the marginals doesn't help us but if we are 11% clear we have a majority. Probably 30 to 50
How much of a personal vote CF has built among Labour leavers is the big question.
Edit: Are you 250 years old btw?