According to Opinium, the Tories have stretched their poll lead and now have a 16-point lead over Labour. The Conservatives are up three points compared with a week ago, and now stand on 44%. Labour is down one point on 28%. The Liberal Democrats are also down one point on 14%, their lowest showing since August, while the Brexit party is unchanged on 6%.
Tories +3 Labour -1 Lib Dem -1
That just doesn't feel right at all.
Who did they survey only the local Conservative Clubs?
According to Opinium, the Tories have stretched their poll lead and now have a 16-point lead over Labour. The Conservatives are up three points compared with a week ago, and now stand on 44%. Labour is down one point on 28%. The Liberal Democrats are also down one point on 14%, their lowest showing since August, while the Brexit party is unchanged on 6%.
Tories +3 Labour -1 Lib Dem -1
That just doesn't feel right at all.
Who did they survey only the local Conservative Clubs?
It does. This election is not 2017 redux
Not the way the last week of the campaign has gone. Bad news day in day out for the Tories, and yet +3....that just doesn't ring true.
The Tories are never getting 44%. I can't see them getting 40%.
The big difference in so many of these polls is the Labour number. They are either looking at a sub Gordo drubbing or a now creeping to a respectable 32-33% share.
I think the later is much more likely than the former. In fact the former is just impossible, especially with Santa Corbyn handing out freebies left, right and centre.
I think the Tories can get 40% or thereabouts. It's certainly possible.
Two thirds (66 per cent) of voters said they were more likely to vote for a party that promised to recruit an additional 20,000 police officers - 23 per cent higher than "cutting taxes", the second most popular proposition put to those surveyed.
More than a third (35 per cent) said they would be more likely to back a party that pledged to cut inheritance tax, and 37 per cent said that a promise to renationalise Britain's rail network - a Labour policy - would increase the likelihood that they would vote for a particular party.
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
What does your model predict overall?
Con/Lab/LD 319/224/34
After latest ComRes
Con/Lab/LD 320/225/32
I'd like to see the figures after the latest Opinium is added.
The Tories are never getting 44%. I can't see them getting 40%.
The big difference in so many of these polls is the Labour number. They are either looking at a sub Gordo drubbing or a now creeping to a respectable 32-33% share.
I think the later is much more likely than the former. In fact the former is just impossible, especially with Santa Corbyn handing out freebies left, right and centre.
I think the Tories can get 40% or thereabouts. It's certainly possible.
40% seems like the absolute ceiling. Labour look like they have broken through 30% now and the Lib Dem are just invisible.
Two thirds (66 per cent) of voters said they were more likely to vote for a party that promised to recruit an additional 20,000 police officers - 23 per cent higher than "cutting taxes", the second most popular proposition put to those surveyed.
More than a third (35 per cent) said they would be more likely to back a party that pledged to cut inheritance tax, and 37 per cent said that a promise to renationalise Britain's rail network - a Labour policy - would increase the likelihood that they would vote for a particular party.
And yet the poll from Opinium says the opposite. Go figure
It’s not the checks that are the problem. Getting the teeth checked is cheap and quick. Getting the fecking treatment done is the expensive bit. And that’s speaking as somebody on a good salary who doesn’t eat many sugary foods.
Next up: free tyre checks.
Free hearing aids would be better. I’ve been entitled to them for years but the bastards in my LHA refuse to pay for them.
Interesting publication this week on hearing aids postponing dementia.
According to Opinium, the Tories have stretched their poll lead and now have a 16-point lead over Labour. The Conservatives are up three points compared with a week ago, and now stand on 44%. Labour is down one point on 28%. The Liberal Democrats are also down one point on 14%, their lowest showing since August, while the Brexit party is unchanged on 6%.
Tories +3 Labour -1 Lib Dem -1
That just doesn't feel right at all.
Who did they survey only the local Conservative Clubs?
It does. This election is not 2017 redux
Not the way the last week of the campaign has gone. Bad news day in day out for the Tories, and yet +3....that just doesn't ring true.
Maybe the public are a little bit more savvy than we give them credit for, and they see perfectly well that Corbyn's 'everything for free' mantra is the total bollocks we all know it to be.
The Tories are never getting 44%. I can't see them getting 40%.
The big difference in so many of these polls is the Labour number. They are either looking at a sub Gordo drubbing or a now creeping to a respectable 32-33% share.
I think the later is much more likely than the former. In fact the former is just impossible, especially with Santa Corbyn handing out freebies left, right and centre.
I'm sorry but you're wrong. The public are much smarter than that.
The Tories are never getting 44%. I can't see them getting 40%.
The big difference in so many of these polls is the Labour number. They are either looking at a sub Gordo drubbing or a now creeping to a respectable 32-33% share.
I think the later is much more likely than the former. In fact the former is just impossible, especially with Santa Corbyn handing out freebies left, right and centre.
Why is the former impossible ?
Labour are certainly doing worse in Scotland, Wales and everywhere north of Birmingham than they were in 2010.
Try and get an NHS dentist, its virtually impossible. I pay 27£ a month for 4 hygienist and 2 dentist appts and any treatment req is free under certain conditions.. but not for crowns or root canal and the like. It also covers me when abroad..
They are available where I am (and where I used to live in the SE). Perhaps I’m just lucky.
40 million people at £20 a check up doesn’t add up to £450m.
Plus add in all the teeth health tourists.
That figure won’t last the night.
You are supposed to get a check-up every 6 months...
£20 quid for a check up.. WHERE>?
My dentist does them for free. I have private treatment but she does it on NHS for free. Recently had a small filling and she said it was same on NHS as private as it was visible and said no point paying £60 when you get it on NHS for £14.
The Tories are never getting 44%. I can't see them getting 40%.
The big difference in so many of these polls is the Labour number. They are either looking at a sub Gordo drubbing or a now creeping to a respectable 32-33% share.
I think the later is much more likely than the former. In fact the former is just impossible, especially with Santa Corbyn handing out freebies left, right and centre.
Why is the former impossible ?
Labour are certainly doing worse in Scotland, Wales and everywhere north of Birmingham than they were in 2010.
Labour have polled less than 29% for what 50 years? That isn't going to change this time. I just don't believe any of these polls with Labour on ~22%.
It’s not the checks that are the problem. Getting the teeth checked is cheap and quick. Getting the fecking treatment done is the expensive bit. And that’s speaking as somebody on a good salary who doesn’t eat many sugary foods.
Next up: free tyre checks.
Free hearing aids would be better. I’ve been entitled to them for years but the bastards in my LHA refuse to pay for them.
Interesting publication this week on hearing aids postponing dementia.
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
What does your model predict overall?
Con/Lab/LD 319/224/34
After latest ComRes
Con/Lab/LD 320/225/32
I'd like to see the figures after the latest Opinium is added.
Probably barely a majority under his model. Very bizarre
Try and get an NHS dentist, its virtually impossible. I pay 27£ a month for 4 hygienist and 2 dentist appts and any treatment req is free under certain conditions.. but not for crowns or root canal and the like. It also covers me when abroad..
Move to God's country it is a lot less. Mind you I pay a fair whack for unlimited cover up to £2K , only implants excluded, for myself and wife via employer so only costs me half price with tax relief
>Labour will also promise a revolution in the labour market by introducing sectoral collective bargaining, promising a 32-hour working week by 2030 — albeit voluntary — and banning zero-hours contracts.
So actually quite moderate again. Interesting.
Sectoral collective bargaining isn't moderate.
I don’t even know how you get there from the current status quo where many (most?) people are not in unions.
I’m a union rep (though very definitely don’t fund Labour) and regularly see the benefits of collective bargaining in an employer; but there won’t be many sectors where unions can argue for the same “buy in” for the whole sector as with an employer in which they are recognised.
They can in the public sector.
Which is the point, really. This policy and the working directive appears to be a function of Labour’s support being almost entirely public sector where such things as short working, working from home and sectoral bargaining are normal. In the private sector, where they have almost entirely disappeared after Wapping in 1986, they will simply be laughed at.
Working from home is now pretty much normal in large chunks of the private sector as well. And I guess it's almost nonexistent amongst large sections of the public sector, eg health and education.
Huh?! Surely that’s a spoof remark?!!!!!
Sorry, I suspect we're talking at crossed purposes. My private sector job allows me to work one day a week from home without any request for permission. As a class teacher, my assumption is that if you have classes five days a week, you have to turn up to school five days a week. Similarly it's next to impossible for doctors/nurses to oversee patients remotely. Obviously admin work etc can and is routinely done at home, but there are things for which a physical presence is necessary. In my case, I can theoretically work from home for weeks without any impact on my performance.
Now you explain, that does make more sense. Thanks.
My private sector job for a mahoosive global company is 99.99 per cent working from home, thus saving the company paying for electricity, chairs, stationery, and all that other gubbins, not to mention great big buildings.
The Tories are never getting 44%. I can't see them getting 40%.
The big difference in so many of these polls is the Labour number. They are either looking at a sub Gordo drubbing or a now creeping to a respectable 32-33% share.
I think the later is much more likely than the former. In fact the former is just impossible, especially with Santa Corbyn handing out freebies left, right and centre.
Why is the former impossible ?
Labour are certainly doing worse in Scotland, Wales and everywhere north of Birmingham than they were in 2010.
Labour have polled less than 29% for what 50 years? That isn't going to change this time. I just don't believe any of these polls with Labour on ~22%.
1983 was 27.6%.
I could see them going lower but not up against Johnson.
Interesting tidbits from the flavible projection of the Opinium figures. Tories pick up the extraordinarily unlikely Newcastle North along with Sunderland central and Tynemouth, Blyth Valley, Nw Durham, Sedgefield, Hartlepool etc etc Within a percent or two further swing of a complete meltdown of the PLP, especially if they get wasted by the yellows in London
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
What does your model predict overall?
Con/Lab/LD 319/224/34
After latest ComRes
Con/Lab/LD 320/225/32
I'd like to see the figures after the latest Opinium is added.
Probably barely a majority under his model. Very bizarre
One poll unlikely to make that much of a difference.
The Finchley poll is very good for the Tories but the other 2 are knife edge. They are very poor for Labour and unfortunately Dent Coad is still in with a chance. Seeing her lose will be a highlight.
"Instead it will renegotiate migration policy with EU if Britain votes to leave in second referendum"
With Labour it will go like this,
Labour - We would like to renegotiate migration policy, honest, like we really do (to background of the membership screaming all borders are racist). EU - Freedom of movement is at the core of everything we do Labour - OK, seems like we will have to accept that then
Lib Dems should win Wimbledon when people in the constituency realise they're clearly the best competition. Kensington will probably remain split allowing the Tories to win.
These constituency results do no favours for the Remain side but are a gift to the Tories.
Both sides will insist they're the tactical choice - and the vote will get split.
Well that’s one view but to anybody with an ounce of intelligence the tactical choice is obvious. It won’t be tactical by 12/12 it will be the preferred option as labour keep digging deeper holes.
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
Two thirds (66 per cent) of voters said they were more likely to vote for a party that promised to recruit an additional 20,000 police officers - 23 per cent higher than "cutting taxes", the second most popular proposition put to those surveyed.
More than a third (35 per cent) said they would be more likely to back a party that pledged to cut inheritance tax, and 37 per cent said that a promise to renationalise Britain's rail network - a Labour policy - would increase the likelihood that they would vote for a particular party.
The polling "would you be more likely to vote for Party X if they did Y?" is some of the least reliable out there. Comparing them, doubly so.
Lib Dems should win Wimbledon when people in the constituency realise they're clearly the best competition. Kensington will probably remain split allowing the Tories to win.
Wimbledon does include some fairly working class bits of Merton. Not very Cobynite, but may be a bit resistant to bar chart squeeze, much like Melton in my own constituency.
Stand by for a number of the Shad Cab on sofas tomorrow morning arguing differently.
Don't forget the caveat, "if Britain votes to leave", when the Labour party will first try really really hard to get a better deal than Boris, before campaigning to remain. Given they will sign up to pretty much BINO, with single market etc etc etc, they will be tied into accepting FOM, even if the nasty British public again say they do actually want to leave.
Shocking Opinium for Labour . If you can’t close the gap after the dreadful NHS figures then really !
The Comres is better but still no closing of the gap .
We need to see the fieldwork dates to see whether there’s a big difference in those between the two .
The deltapoll constiuency polls show a confused REMAIN vote. Even if Labour close the gap will people vote tactically in the "right" way to stop a tory majority?
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
These constituency results do no favours for the Remain side but are a gift to the Tories.
Both sides will insist they're the tactical choice - and the vote will get split.
Well that’s one view but to anybody with an ounce of intelligence the tactical choice is obvious. It won’t be tactical by 12/12 it will be the preferred option as labour keep digging deeper holes.
I'm sorry, but I dont think you can say the tactical vote is obvious on these numbers. Not in the least
Even the very smart people making the tactical REMAIN models cant agree
No surprises though. Speaking as someone who knows China well. If Asia generally, and China specifically, is the future, it will unpleasant. Unless you hold the electrodes.
Labour are going south they will be sub 200 and in the 24/26 region their offer and leader are thirty years past their sell by date, not that the tories are any better but that’s politics
These constituency results do no favours for the Remain side but are a gift to the Tories.
Both sides will insist they're the tactical choice - and the vote will get split.
Well that’s one view but to anybody with an ounce of intelligence the tactical choice is obvious. It won’t be tactical by 12/12 it will be the preferred option as labour keep digging deeper holes.
Outside Labour defences there is no doubt at all. Vote Lib Dem.
Labour are going south they will be sub 200 and in the 24/26 region their offer and leader are thirty years past their sell by date, not that the tories are any better but that’s politics
The Guardian article on the London polls suggest that Swinson is quite right to refuse to work with Corbyn. He's not very popular with Lib Dem voters!
Middle class remainers with expensive properties in London and who generally have a globalist capitalist outlook don't like Jezza. I am shocked I tell you, shocked.
Somewhat paradoxically, the more Labour gains, the more they squeeze the Lib Dem vote and presumably the larger the Tory lead in these London seats. Oh dear dear dear
Labour always has very soft green support it can faithfully rely on to come onboard once an election is called.
Labour will squeeze them to around 1 or 2 percent I would think.
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
There was a YouGov poll that indicated that 40% of Greens would vote tactically for Labour and 40% for LDs leaving 20% (of 5%) i.e. 1% still voting Green. That's what I have in my model.
The movement has already started and Greens are now on about 3.5% and the shift of the other 1.5% is already reflected in the Lab and LD shares.
What does your model predict overall?
Con/Lab/LD 319/224/34
After latest ComRes
Con/Lab/LD 320/225/32
I'd like to see the figures after the latest Opinium is added.
Probably barely a majority under his model. Very bizarre
Each poll has a 10% weight as it enters the calculations and decays exponentially at a 90% rate i.e. this poll will decay to 9% weight when another comes in and then to 8.1% weight and so on. It damps down noise but if there is a trend it will pick it up.
The Tories are never getting 44%. I can't see them getting 40%.
The big difference in so many of these polls is the Labour number. They are either looking at a sub Gordo drubbing or a now creeping to a respectable 32-33% share.
I think the later is much more likely than the former. In fact the former is just impossible, especially with Santa Corbyn handing out freebies left, right and centre.
Why is the former impossible ?
Labour are certainly doing worse in Scotland, Wales and everywhere north of Birmingham than they were in 2010.
Labour have polled less than 29% for what 50 years? That isn't going to change this time. I just don't believe any of these polls with Labour on ~22%.
1983 was 27.6%.
I could see them going lower but not up against Johnson.
27.6% in the UK, 28.3% in GB.
Interesting that they were as high as 33% in the polls a few weeks before the election, as this video shows (at 15 secs):
Somewhat paradoxically, the more Labour gains, the more they squeeze the Lib Dem vote and presumably the larger the Tory lead in these London seats. Oh dear dear dear
The Finchley poll is very good for the Tories but the other 2 are knife edge. They are very poor for Labour and unfortunately Dent Coad is still in with a chance. Seeing her lose will be a highlight.
In my model, I have Finchley, Kensington and Wimbledon as Tory seats - in line with these constituency polls.
But you can bet your bottom dollar the LibDems are going to use these polls over the next three weeks to squeeze the Labour vote and it won't take much to tip them.
Somewhat paradoxically, the more Labour gains, the more they squeeze the Lib Dem vote and presumably the larger the Tory lead in these London seats. Oh dear dear dear
I was unnecessarily rude to you earlier and I apologise. I felt your comment was overly simplistic. But should not have used the word stupid.
I live with 4 separate NHS dentists within a 10 min walk of me.
Scotland is better.
Without knowing where you live that’s meaningless. If you live in Golspie I will agree that’s impressive. If you live in Kilmarnock, less so.
I must have 10 in the equivalent distance of Cannock, although getting them to accept new NHS patients is hard work. But in Penkridge it would be rather fewer.
I wonder if we might not see a Lib Dem surge in London and the South West then. Johnson is in trouble if these polls continue to be positive - but my fear is that Labour starts to gain and these voters get further split.
Comments
Opinium is extraordinary.
Those constituency polls are grim, showing the split vote.
Blimey.
Two thirds (66 per cent) of voters said they were more likely to vote for a party that promised to recruit an additional 20,000 police officers - 23 per cent higher than "cutting taxes", the second most popular proposition put to those surveyed.
More than a third (35 per cent) said they would be more likely to back a party that pledged to cut inheritance tax, and 37 per cent said that a promise to renationalise Britain's rail network - a Labour policy - would increase the likelihood that they would vote for a particular party.
No on can accuse the pollsters of letting the paymaster call the tune.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-11-link-cognition-earlier-thought.html
Labour are certainly doing worse in Scotland, Wales and everywhere north of Birmingham than they were in 2010.
Those LibDem bar charts write themselves......
Both sides will insist they're the tactical choice - and the vote will get split.
Not much tactical voting there.
More a case of letting the Tories hold all their seats through the middle. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Remain voters are confused as anything
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195783513439690754?s=20
The Comres is better but still no closing of the gap .
We need to see the fieldwork dates to see whether there’s a big difference in those between the two .
I could see them going lower but not up against Johnson.
Within a percent or two further swing of a complete meltdown of the PLP, especially if they get wasted by the yellows in London
With Labour it will go like this,
Labour - We would like to renegotiate migration policy, honest, like we really do (to background of the membership screaming all borders are racist).
EU - Freedom of movement is at the core of everything we do
Labour - OK, seems like we will have to accept that then
Con/lab/LD 323/222/32
Doubtful
As I have work to do, at least for the next month until the communists deem me an evil capitalist pig.
Even the very smart people making the tactical REMAIN models cant agree
Scotland is better.
Interesting that they were as high as 33% in the polls a few weeks before the election, as this video shows (at 15 secs):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnjyAcHUkS4
Definitely DeltaPoll/MOS and YouGov/Sunday Times (they usually appear after 9pm)
And as it's a general election Mega Polling Saturday there could be more of course...
But you can bet your bottom dollar the LibDems are going to use these polls over the next three weeks to squeeze the Labour vote and it won't take much to tip them.
Can we suspend the ban on the c-word so we can describe Xi as he deserves?
I must have 10 in the equivalent distance of Cannock, although getting them to accept new NHS patients is hard work. But in Penkridge it would be rather fewer.