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  • Andy_JS said:

    Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.

    They need to do better IMO.

    Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
    I wonder whether there's an element of some who were Remainers giving up on stopping Brexit and thinking "fuck it, it was voted for afterall and now its going to happen so may as well get on with it".

    That’s possible.

    If the only way to resolve Brexit is to just get it done (because Revoke ain’t going nowhere) then they may be thinking we may as well give Johnson a decent mandate to wrap it up in a year or so and move on.

    Anything but the gridlock of the last 2 years.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344

    Yep. Turns out ComRes is tonight's outlier after all.

    I'm not going to kindle the fragile flame of hope, mind you. It is bound to be snuffed out.
  • Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.

    They need to do better IMO.

    Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
    They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.
    The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.

    Which is wrong?
  • Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
    LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.
  • Are don't knows making a break for Johnson?

    Still one month out - but this is the first time I've thought "shit"
  • ydoethur said:

    IS it possible that the more Corbyn promises, the more people disbelieve him given they are clearly nonsensical and purely designed to buy votes, and turn away from Labour as a result?

    Otherwise I am struggling to make sense of these polls.

    There's a law of diminishing returns regarding spending promises.
    Corbyn's spending promises are counter-productive.

    BT has one of the largest workforces in the UK. Yesterday lost a few more Labour votes...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited November 2019
    I wonder if the Lib Dems standing down for the greens has caused some of the wet Tory vote to head back to Johnson.
    I noted that Ed Davey was striking a dry economic tone today, presumably to tempt some of them back ?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yougov!!!!!!!!!!
  • So:

    BMG - 8 points
    YouGov - 17 points
    ComRes - 8 points
    Deltapoll - 15 points
  • Andy_JS said:

    Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.

    They need to do better IMO.

    Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
    I wonder whether there's an element of some who were Remainers giving up on stopping Brexit and thinking "fuck it, it was voted for afterall and now its going to happen so may as well get on with it".
    Or Corbyn wanted to make the election not about Brexit, he has, he would have been better sticking to Brexit.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited November 2019
    DavidL said:

    humbugger said:
    Its a shocker for the Great British public as well. How on earth can Corbyn's approval rating be rising, even from spectacularly low levels?
    "The only way is up"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    So we have polls tonight with the Tories leading by 15, 16 and 17%. Its a kind of herding I suppose but nowhere near where I expected.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    Has Cummings got a knighthood yet?
  • nunu2 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Go out and canvass and then you'll see.
    nunu2 has miscalculated the British voter. Most people want to respect the referendum. I voted remain and even i believe we should leave.

    "Unilateral revocation" has been a catastrophic error for the LDs.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!

    I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Apparently BMG haven't yet updated for candidates, which would explain why they're still at BXP 9%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Skeptical of polls though I am, the funniest ones are where there's been no change at all despite what seem like major moments that should shift things.
  • ydoethur said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Another thought is, with the Liberal Democrats standing down in several seats, it is possible that their voters in those seats are drifting to the Tories. That would be ironic, but it would also be predictable given the kind of voters the Oranges have been collecting recently. These are people who would vote Liberal Democrat but not vote Green. If they wanted to vote Green, they would already have done so.

    And it may have hit their standing and credibility in other seats as well. Now it could have concentrated minds of those with money or sense that to stop Corbyn, Johnson is the only game in town.

    I will admit my view may be tinged by the fact this is the dilemma I am wrestling with at the moment.
    The Remain Alliance isn't a big enough thing to have depressed the Lib Dem vote nationwide. But you may well have a point about distressed centre-right soft Remain voters dumping them when they see who they've been treating with.

    The Green Party at least is to the left of Labour. If the Lib Dems will get into bed with the Greens just to try to optimise the Remain vote, it is very easy to believe that they would prop up a Corbyn Government in exchange for a second referendum.
    I think this is Jo Swinson’s biggest strategic problem.

    In going all-out on Revoke she’s made her red-line that she’d never work with Corbyn incredible.

    No-one believes her.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    nunu2 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Go out and canvass and then you'll see.
    nunu2 has miscalculated the British voter. Most people want to respect the referendum. I voted remain and even i believe we should leave.

    "Unilateral revocation" has been a catastrophic error for the LDs.
    Huh?

    I'm agreeing with you.
  • https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344

    Yep. Turns out ComRes is tonight's outlier after all.

    Barensian model might just give the Tories a majority of 1 on those numbers...

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder if the Lib Dems standing down for the greens has caused some of the wet Tory vote to head back to Johnson.
    I noted that Ed Davey was striking a dry economic tone today, presumably to tempt some of them back ?

    I always wonder how much people notice that sort of thing. But if any voters are going to notice, it's those that might vote Lib Dem. They're much more likely to be watching the news, going on newspaper websites, etc.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Tory near miss in Bootle! 😂
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    So:

    BMG - 8 points
    YouGov - 17 points
    ComRes - 8 points
    Deltapoll - 15 points

    The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.
  • Brom said:

    Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!

    I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.

    On these polls there is no way the LibDems are taking anywhere with a 10k Conservative majority.
  • nunu2 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Go out and canvass and then you'll see.
    I hate canvassing.

    I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.

    Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.

    They need to do better IMO.

    Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
    I wonder whether there's an element of some who were Remainers giving up on stopping Brexit and thinking "fuck it, it was voted for afterall and now its going to happen so may as well get on with it".

    That’s possible.

    If the only way to resolve Brexit is to just get it done (because Revoke ain’t going nowhere) then they may be thinking we may as well give Johnson a decent mandate to wrap it up in a year or so and move on.

    Anything but the gridlock of the last 2 years.
    Yep, all those clever games of seizing the order paper, the Benn Act. Letwin's amendment and the complete refusal to back a sensible compromise of a deal such as May provided look properly Letwin right now.

    Still early days of course.
  • https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344

    Yep. Turns out ComRes is tonight's outlier after all.

    I'm not going to kindle the fragile flame of hope, mind you. It is bound to be snuffed out.

    Im calling you as a troll...
  • Pulpstar said:

    People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.


    The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.

    They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
  • kle4 said:

    So:

    BMG - 8 points
    YouGov - 17 points
    ComRes - 8 points
    Deltapoll - 15 points

    The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.
    Fair point. Very.

    But Labour are in deep deep trouble, whatever...
  • nunu2 said:

    Tory near miss in Bootle! 😂

    Recount?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.

    They need to do better IMO.

    Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
    They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.
    The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.

    Which is wrong?
    Both could be right.

    If the Lib Dems are doing rather well in and around London but are failing to make progress (or possibly even going backwards) in their old heartland down in the West Country, then they could easily poll in the low teens and still make net gains. But probably not that many.

    There are only a finite number of seats available where the Lib Dems have the resources to mount a serious challenge and where there is a substantial Remain majority to call upon. Moreover, even in the three constituency polls from earlier tonight, we should note that the Conservatives have leads in all of them.
  • I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.

    They need to do better IMO.

    Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
    They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.
    The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.

    Which is wrong?
    You cant compare an area of relative strength for Labour and extrapolate that to the rest of the country.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Pulpstar said:

    People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.

    I guess the concern is people do a 2017 again and think well I either want to stop a big majority and / or it is safe to vote differently especially as I think my local candidate is actually ok.
    2017 is both the Tory blessing and curse. A mistrust of the polls leads to continual worrying and yet also avoids complacency. That goes for voters as well as politicians.

    If things are going well I suspect they will be leaning on the Tory press to avoid publishing any positive Tory/Lab marginal constituency polling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited November 2019
    nunu2 said:

    Tory near miss in Bootle! 😂

    Hey now, the Tories got within 2000 votes of winning Bootle as recently as 1955, and they even won it in 1935, compared to some seats that's practically a marginal.
  • Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
    LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.
    That bullshit is on the march though.

    I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
  • I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    The tories will be nervous. Rightly.

    But Labour are in deep deep trouble. Even you know that.,.,,..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    Are don't knows making a break for Johnson?

    Still one month out - but this is the first time I've thought "shit"

    I think it is mostly about certainty to vote.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    So PB Tories, would you take the Comres numbers right now?
  • Andy_JS said:

    Has Cummings got a knighthood yet?


    Has Cummings wargamed this?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.

    They need to do better IMO.

    Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
    They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.
    The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.

    Which is wrong?
    They could be doing very badly indeed in the seats they're not targeting.
  • I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    After 2017 the Tories will not assume this is in the bag. We've not had the Tory manifesto yet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344

    Yep. Turns out ComRes is tonight's outlier after all.

    I'm not going to kindle the fragile flame of hope, mind you. It is bound to be snuffed out.

    Seems like people who were saying they'd vote Brexit Party just wanted Brexit after all. And Boris is the only Brexit game in town.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    kle4 said:

    So:

    BMG - 8 points
    YouGov - 17 points
    ComRes - 8 points
    Deltapoll - 15 points

    The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.
    Fair point. Very.

    But Labour are in deep deep trouble, whatever...
    Their reliance on polling being just completely wrong, or a second Corbyn surge, is definitely a weakness - they shouldn't need to rely on those things, and so heavily to boot. But just as the Labour core will not believe these polls as just being too bad to believe, I wonder about those scarred Tories who won't believe it as too good to believe.

    The difference, of course, is that the latter have reason to try harder as a result, the former get complacent. We shall see.
  • nunu2 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Go out and canvass and then you'll see.
    I hate canvassing.

    I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.

    Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
    LDs will do decently in the prosperous outer ring of London. But it wont be enough.

    Here is anther prediction. The tories are going to do a lot better in Scotland than consensus predicts. I write as a scot...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
    LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.
    That bullshit is on the march though.

    I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
    You have more of a steak in that?

    You don't want your eating habits given the chop?

    Compulsory vegetarianism would be a rasher move?

    Good night.
  • https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802

    It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.

    Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.

    In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?

    On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I wonder if the Lib Dems standing down for the greens has caused some of the wet Tory vote to head back to Johnson.
    I noted that Ed Davey was striking a dry economic tone today, presumably to tempt some of them back ?

    The LDs aren’t offering anything to seriously tempt centre-right voters, whilst Swinson loves the identity politics and gives the impression she’d sell her own mother to Satan (Corbyn) to stop Brexit if that’s what it took.

    Meanwhile, some Remainer Tories now sense that Boris might actually get a fairly close relationship with the EU if he wins well and then govern from the centre.
  • I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?

    On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
    oh get a grip...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    felix said:

    The polling message for the Tories is to keep quiet and let Labour kick themselves to death on crackpot broadband and freedom of movement bollocks.
    Seems probable. While they don’t want Labour to completely dominate the Tories will be happy if Labour steal the headlines 4 days of the week with some ludicrous spending promises that the level headed electorate deem unreasonable. Away from twitter I get the impression the broadband promise was met with a mixed response which only got worse when the industry experts dismissed Labour costings.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Tories most seats, movement from 1.07/1.08 to 1.06/1.07
  • I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    Lessons learned from 2017, the pressure on Corbyn will be kept up.
  • Ironically what those who want a relatively soft Brexit don’t want is Boris beholden to the EPG, so a small majority would be worse.
  • https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802

    It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.

    Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.

    In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.

    Starting to sound a bit desperate now. However, there's a long way to go.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Flavible computes the beautiful scenario on the yougov of Lavery losing Wansbeck
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    DavidL said:

    So we have polls tonight with the Tories leading by 15, 16 and 17%. Its a kind of herding I suppose but nowhere near where I expected.

    Really need to see some Scottish only polls, now.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    So:

    BMG - 8 points
    YouGov - 17 points
    ComRes - 8 points
    Deltapoll - 15 points

    The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.
    Fair point. Very.

    But Labour are in deep deep trouble, whatever...
    Their reliance on polling being just completely wrong, or a second Corbyn surge, is definitely a weakness - they shouldn't need to rely on those things, and so heavily to boot. But just as the Labour core will not believe these polls as just being too bad to believe, I wonder about those scarred Tories who won't believe it as too good to believe.

    The difference, of course, is that the latter have reason to try harder as a result, the former get complacent. We shall see.
    The higher the Tory lead the more nervous they should be.

    But unlike last time defectors arent voting Labour...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited November 2019

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
    LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.
    That bullshit is on the march though.

    I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
    My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    It looks like Labour's mad Broadband policy might have been a moment of calirity for the electorate... But not in the way Labour were hoping! :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited November 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.

    They need to do better IMO.

    Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
    They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.
    The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.

    Which is wrong?
    They could be doing very badly indeed in the seats they're not targeting.
    Yes. It's easy to forget that in vote share the LDs did worse in 2017 than 2015, as hard as that is to believe, but they targeted pretty well considering that very low vote share. With an increase into the low teens I assume there'll be a bit more inefficiency, but without sactificing that efficiency entirely they could punch above their weight in seats vs what you'd expect from national vote share. Granted that will likely be well down on their optimistic hopes, but I think bad night or not we'll see some spectacular LD results crop up. Where people are going for them, they are going for them in a big way. Which is good, as they will need that.
  • I suppose why include TIG and UKIP but not include them?
  • GIN1138 said:

    It looks like Labour's mad Broadband policy might have been a moment of calirity for the electorate... But not in the way Labour were hoping! :D

    Voters arent idiots,

    Unlike Corbyn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
    LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.
    That bullshit is on the march though.

    I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
    My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'
    I think Sarah Palin said the same thing once.

    I'm sure most vegans are very nice people, but they do have an image problem, as I find a lot vegetarians joke about vegans as well.
  • Flavible computes the beautiful scenario on the yougov of Lavery losing Wansbeck

    DARE TO DREAM etc.
  • humbugger said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802

    It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.

    Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.

    In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.

    Starting to sound a bit desperate now. However, there's a long way to go.
    If by next week there is continued Tory surge, it's time to concede I've got this deeply wrong, I think.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802

    It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.

    Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.

    In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.

    So Yougov are basically saying that 17% actually understates the Tory lead where it actually matters? I'd really love this to be true but jeez...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    In seats with a majority under 10,000 Tories lead by 20 points
    Con 45%
    Lab 25%

    Is that Tory majority under 10,000 or both ways ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited November 2019
    Wow.

    Switch off (of PB) for a couple of hours to watch Strictly and by the time I come back the Tories have doubled their lead and won a landslide. What happened there?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    humbugger said:


    After 2017 the Tories will not assume this is in the bag. We've not had the Tory manifesto yet.

    Absolutely.

    Corbyn and Labour need to be pounded right up to the 12th.
  • kle4 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
    LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.
    That bullshit is on the march though.

    I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
    My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'
    I think Sarah Palin said the same thing once.

    I'm sure most vegans are very nice people, but they do have an image problem, as I find a lot vegetarians joke about vegans as well.
    I upset a vegan friend of mine recently, she was recently lecturing me on the evils of eating meat as she was feeding her dog some meat.

    She had no counter argument when I said 'Eating meat is natural, and that she wants to deny me the same rights she gives her dog.'

    That said vegans are opposed to Hawaiian pizzas, so they aren't all bad.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    So:

    BMG - 8 points
    YouGov - 17 points
    ComRes - 8 points
    Deltapoll - 15 points

    The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.
    Fair point. Very.

    But Labour are in deep deep trouble, whatever...
    Their reliance on polling being just completely wrong, or a second Corbyn surge, is definitely a weakness - they shouldn't need to rely on those things, and so heavily to boot. But just as the Labour core will not believe these polls as just being too bad to believe, I wonder about those scarred Tories who won't believe it as too good to believe.

    The difference, of course, is that the latter have reason to try harder as a result, the former get complacent. We shall see.
    Indeed. We shall see.

    But the tories simply arent going to lose the number of seats that the idiot London-centric punditry think they will in the regions...

  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited November 2019
    -
    a
  • Pulpstar said:

    People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.


    The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.

    They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
    Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    I suppose why include TIG and UKIP but not include them?
    TIG in particular probably makes the case for the Yorkshire Party. However unreasiltic their ambitions, if they've stood that many and the rump of the Tiggers get more prominence than them, it's not very fair.

    I seem to recall 2015 (or possibly 2017) one paper put up a front page of all main party leaders, and included the Women's Equality Party of all parties, when I don't remember people like the TUSC getting that in 2015, or English Democrat or CISTA.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I suppose why include TIG and UKIP but not include them?
    Or the SDPs 19 and Liberals 18. The CPA are also running 25 or so
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    humbugger said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802

    It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.

    Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.

    In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.

    Starting to sound a bit desperate now. However, there's a long way to go.
    If by next week there is continued Tory surge, it's time to concede I've got this deeply wrong, I think.
    I hope Boris wins but I think your Tory 35 Labour 33 prediction is based purely on your best case scenario of a Labour coalition government rather than having any basis of reality. For a start with BXP standing down where on earth does the rest of the leave vote go if the Tories only hit 35?
  • DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802

    It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.

    Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.

    In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.

    So Yougov are basically saying that 17% actually understates the Tory lead where it actually matters? I'd really love this to be true but jeez...
    I predict another polling inquiry....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?

    On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.
    oh get a grip...
    2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.

    Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?

    If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.

    True - it could get a whole lot worse for them :)
  • humbugger said:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802

    It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.

    Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.

    In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.

    Starting to sound a bit desperate now. However, there's a long way to go.
    If by next week there is continued Tory surge, it's time to concede I've got this deeply wrong, I think.
    You've got it deeply wrong.

    But fair play for admitting it.
  • So:

    BMG - 8 points
    YouGov - 17 points
    ComRes - 8 points
    Deltapoll - 15 points

    You're forgetting Opinium - 16 points :love:

    Forget Corbyn, mate, he's a clapped-out loser who's being found out as we speak!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Pulpstar said:

    People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.


    The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.

    They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
    Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.
    Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.

    They need to do better IMO.

    Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
    They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.
    The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.

    Which is wrong?
    They could be doing very badly indeed in the seats they're not targeting.
    Yes. It's easy to forget that in vote share the LDs did worse in 2017 than 2015, as hard as that is to believe, but they targeted pretty well considering that very low vote share. With an increase into the low teens I assume there'll be a bit more inefficiency, but without sactificing that efficiency entirely they could punch above their weight in seats vs what you'd expect from national vote share. Granted that will likely be well down on their optimistic hopes, but I think bad night or not we'll see some spectacular LD results crop up. Where people are going for them, they are going for them in a big way. Which is good, as they will need that.
    I agree with your analysis.

    Take a seat like West Bromwich West. Last time the LDs got 333 votes or 0.9%. It could be they haven't improved at all in that type of seat. (Difficult to to believe they could do worse).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Bromwich_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344

    Barensian model might just give the Tories a majority of 1 on those numbers...

    LOL! 😂😂😂
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    That said vegans are opposed to Hawaiian pizzas, so they aren't all bad.

    Ahem...

    https://lovingitvegan.com/thin-crust-hawaiian-vegan-pizza/
  • nunu2 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Go out and canvass and then you'll see.
    I hate canvassing.

    I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.

    Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
    LDs will do decently in the prosperous outer ring of London. But it wont be enough.

    Here is anther prediction. The tories are going to do a lot better in Scotland than consensus predicts. I write as a scot...
    I’ve been very bullish on SCons since Day One.

    I also note they’re attacking seats like Edinburgh South West and Lanark and Hamilton East, and not wholly on the defensive either, which I find interesting.
  • kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.


    The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.

    They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
    Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.
    Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.
    In all seriousness, I do wonder if the media have any more Boris scandals in the back of the filing cabinet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802

    It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.

    Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.

    In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.

    They won't break for Labour this time.

    Many of the former Tory "maybes" are quite easy to talk back round.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Have I got this right?

    YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    I suppose why include TIG and UKIP but not include them?
    What about the SDP? They are fielding 20 candidates.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2019
    Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:

    Party............ GE Seats
    Con ................ 405
    Lab ................. 155
    LD .................... 20
    SNP .................. 48
    Green ................. 1
    Plaid C ............... 3
    N.I. ................... 18

    Total .............. 650
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    I suppose it will be interesting to see how Boris does in a debate when he is well ahead in the polls. He seems like a confidence performer, and under pressure he can blow up, but perhaps he's the sort who shoots himself in the foot when feeling no pressure at all. Will it be cautious Boris, not wanting to gaffe, or confident Boris swinging for the fences as he can afford a gaffe in two in trying to keep up the momentum?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Anthony Wells unimpressed with that write up in The Indy.

    https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1195814561078796288
  • Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:

    Party GE Seats
    Con ................ 405
    Lab ................. 155
    LD .................... 20
    SNP .................. 48
    Green ................. 1
    Plaid C ............... 3
    N.I. ................... 18

    Total .............. 650

    F&ck my old boots.

    Although the SNP figure looks about right.
  • Pulpstar said:

    People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.


    The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.

    They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
    Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.
    We actually have an even better secret weapon - the "2017 Will Repeat" doomsters on both the Left and Right will keep people thinking the election is super close even as Corbyn stands on the precipice of a 1983-wipeout! :smiley:
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:

    Party GE Seats
    Con ................ 405
    Lab ................. 155
    LD .................... 20
    SNP .................. 48
    Green ................. 1
    Plaid C ............... 3
    N.I. ................... 18

    Total .............. 650

    BOOM 1931 central!!!

    I will take 330 😊😊😊
This discussion has been closed.