politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 podcast from Keiran Pedley – now with Ipsos MORI

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 podcast from Keiran Pedley – now with Ipsos MORI

Keiran Pedley, familiar to PBers through his longstanding PB/PollingMatters podcast series is now doing a general election series for the pollster, Ipsos MORI, with home he works. Each week he’ll inviting a range of figures to add to our understanding of what’s happening. This is the first.

Read the full story here


«13456789

Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    first
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Second
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    I look forward to listening. And good luck with the series. :)
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    http://www.ceredigion.gov.uk/media/6015/statement-of-persons-nominated-situation-of-polling-stations-2019-final.pdf

  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    FPT:

    Hopefully nothing. It was becoming heated.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Typo: with whom he works....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Interesting in the Totnes seat the Lib Dems don’t have the added stop Brexit to the candidates name .
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    anyone scored a bonus point by finding a UKIP candidate yet?? Or the even rarer SDP?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited November 2019
    Link to Electoral Maps' spreadie of persons nominated by constituency:

    https://t.co/3ZlyVWtxaR

    Edit: I'm assuming you can only rely on the entries where there's a local authority link in column M but they seem to be updating it pretty regularly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    Interesting in the Totnes seat the Lib Dems don’t have the added stop Brexit to the candidates name .

    I’m not sure I’m comfortable with parties being able to use other descriptors, especially when one is a word in the name of another party!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Anyone keeping track of Brexit party candidates in Con/Lab marginals?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    RobD said:

    Anyone keeping track of Brexit party candidates in Con/Lab marginals?

    https://t.co/3ZlyVWtxaR
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Anyone keeping track of Brexit party candidates in Con/Lab marginals?

    https://t.co/3ZlyVWtxaR
    Looks like all seats, and I’m a bit of a lazy bugger. :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Luvvies against Labour:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1195039465548525568?s=20
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Anyone keeping track of Brexit party candidates in Con/Lab marginals?

    https://t.co/3ZlyVWtxaR
    Looks like all seats, and I’m a bit of a lazy bugger. :)
    Is it complete?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Is MORI out yet?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    dyedwoolie said:

    anyone scored a bonus point by finding a UKIP candidate yet?? Or the even rarer SDP?

    Ukip are standing in Woking.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    "The extent to which the EU now controls so many aspects of our daily lives is a
    cause of deep unease. In the NHS the working time directive has adversely
    impacted on medical training and continuity and we are still unable to
    adequately test whether healthcare workers from the EU can speak English.
    Sensible health measures to prevent the sale of ultra cheap alcohol will be
    held up for years in the European Courts whilst liver deaths continue to rise
    because Parliament is impotent to set our own controls without lengthy legal
    challenges."

    Sarah Wollaston Conservative MP for Totnes, 2013. Now LibDem "Unite to Remain" candidate, 2019.

    Some journey she's been on. Just don't expect many of your 27,000 Conservative voters in 2017 to travel with you....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT on why national debt will never be paid off.
    algarkirk said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    algarkirk said:

    What happens if you have borrowed £1tn at 1% and the rate rises say to 5%, and you have not paid it off and need to remortgage the country? That sounds like time to call in the receivers to me, and the idea it can't happen is nonsense.

    That's what happened with Greece and why the deficit needs to be under control but for the UK the debt mountain the rate can't simply rise to 5%. Its largely long-dated bonds fixed for 10-50 years. So only the deficit and a small amount of the mountain gets renewed each year.
    Thanks. Perhaps I am being simplistic, but doesn't that just transfer the risk to our grandchildren unless there is a plan for paying it off?

    So long as we're sane, no. So long as we're on a long-enough horizon if the interest rate spikes we will be under pressure to fix it and get it back down in a timely fashion, the deficit alone requires that and the debt mountain is thankfully not adjustable so quickly.

    Over the long term so long as we pay interest and are sensible between growth and inflation we ought to be able to bring debt-to-GDP down [it is already coming down] and we should target getting it back below 40%. But it doesn't have to be paid off.

    In 1968 UK GDP was $104 bn
    In 2018 UK GDP was £2622 bn

    Debt at 40% of 1968 that has never been paid off but interest paid would now be 1.56% of GDP.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Interesting in the Totnes seat the Lib Dems don’t have the added stop Brexit to the candidates name .

    I’m not sure I’m comfortable with parties being able to use other descriptors, especially when one is a word in the name of another party!
    Brexit Party - Stop The LibDems? :lol:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Anyone keeping track of Brexit party candidates in Con/Lab marginals?

    https://t.co/3ZlyVWtxaR
    Looks like all seats, and I’m a bit of a lazy bugger. :)
    Oh sorry, I'll just create a subset showing only the Con/Lab marginals for you.

    Or maybe not :wink:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    How accurate is Democratic Dashboard regarding the constituencies?

    I've recently moved constituency, got my polling card today so my registration has gone through in time. Just went on to the Democratic Dashboard website and put in my postcode and its showing its got 4 candidates: Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and BXP.

    It was won by the Tories in 2017.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    dyedwoolie said:

    anyone scored a bonus point by finding a UKIP candidate yet?? Or the even rarer SDP?

    Birmingham Northfield, Brighton Pavillion, Carlisle etc.

    https://t.co/3ZlyVWtxaR
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    It's all eyes on blaydon and the Space Navies party!

    18 kippers so far, they aren't going north of 20,000 votes nationwide
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Philip_Thompson said:

    How accurate is Democratic Dashboard regarding the constituencies?

    I've recently moved constituency, got my polling card today so my registration has gone through in time. Just went on to the Democratic Dashboard website and put in my postcode and its showing its got 4 candidates: Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and BXP.

    It was won by the Tories in 2017.

    My constituency has no Lib Dem. Only Tory and labour. Considering there’s about 5 people who vote labour here and they’re under proper observation, I don’t understand why there’s no Lib Dem.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Anyone keeping track of Brexit party candidates in Con/Lab marginals?

    https://t.co/3ZlyVWtxaR
    Looks like all seats, and I’m a bit of a lazy bugger. :)
    Oh sorry, I'll just create a subset showing only the Con/Lab marginals for you.

    Or maybe not :wink:
    Tease!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    dyedwoolie said:

    It's all eyes on blaydon and the Space Navies party!

    18 kippers so far, they aren't going north of 20,000 votes nationwide

    23 I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Tories standing in four seats in NI.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tories standing in four seats in NI.

    Brave.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tories standing in four seats in NI.

    North down is the only one they might save deposit in, and thats highly unlikely
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770
    My old home patch has BXP despite being Lab marginal.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1195041304666923008
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
    I didn’t say that, did I? Just curious what the attack line will be.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
    EU letter was manna from Brussels, should get plenty of play out of that for several days if they play it right. Surely even the EU aren't that daft as to not see it's very helpful so suggests they're bored and want to move on rather than keep supporting the remain backlash.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    The question is whether anyone actually thinks Labour would do better.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Interesting tweet earlier from one of the journalists. A common theme hes hearing from candidates is Boris is not blamed for the current state of (for example) the NHS. Hes got the 'insurgent' feeling behind him in many places
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    GIN1138 said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    The question is whether anyone actually thinks Labour would do better.
    Not even in top ten of most read on BBC.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited November 2019
    A very ordinary almost amateurish PPB by the Lib Dems but nonetheless very effective. Optimistic upbeat and just nice in an old fashioned way. Nice clip giving a speech with a baby strapped to her and a good line 'I'm a proud Scot a proud unionist and a proud European'.

    Just a pity about the shoes!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Looks as if the conservatives are going to take Farage on in all seats and Farage is not at all happy

    Well what did he expect? They're big, he's small. He's very far from unimportant to events, or was far from it at any rate, but surely he saw that coming?
    dyedwoolie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tories standing in four seats in NI.

    North down is the only one they might save deposit in, and thats highly unlikely
    Nevertheless it is a positive thing to at least try. Not that it is unprecedented or as you say likely to succeed even to the point of saving a deposit in most of them, but why not try it? Yes, I know NI is NI, it's a special delicate little flower that others are not allowed to involve themselves in because the rest of the UK just doesn't get it, or whatever, but it is one nation here, the parties who stand across GB might as well stand in NI as well.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited November 2019
    Roger said:

    A very ordinary almost amateurish PPB by the Lib Dems but nonetheless very effective. Optimistic upbeat and just nice in an old fashioned way. Nice clip giving a speech with a baby strapped to her and a good line 'I'm a proud Scot a proud unionist and a proud European'.

    Just a pity about the shoes!

    Not seen Lib-Dem PEB. Has she followed Nabavi's advice and changed her hair do? :D
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    dyedwoolie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tories standing in four seats in NI.

    North down is the only one they might save deposit in, and thats highly unlikely
    Just a chance for 4 candidates to get it on their CV that they've run before
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Looks as if the conservatives are going to take Farage on in all seats and Farage is not at all happy

    Well what did he expect? They're big, he's small. He's very far from unimportant to events, or was far from it at any rate, but surely he saw that coming?
    dyedwoolie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tories standing in four seats in NI.

    North down is the only one they might save deposit in, and thats highly unlikely
    Nevertheless it is a positive thing to at least try. Not that it is unprecedented or as you say likely to succeed even to the point of saving a deposit in most of them, but why not try it? Yes, I know NI is NI, it's a special delicate little flower that others are not allowed to involve themselves in because the rest of the UK just doesn't get it, or whatever, but it is one nation here, the parties who stand across GB might as well stand in NI as well.
    Tbf the Tories usually stand in a small number of NI constituencies. Their last serious province wide effort was the disastrous tie in with the UUP in 2010 which cost the UUP all their seats and led to Hermon quitting to sit as an indy
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019
    Lord bucket head and other loonies take on labour and the lib dems Uxbridge constituency
    maaarsh said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
    EU letter was manna from Brussels, should get plenty of play out of that for several days if they play it right. Surely even the EU aren't that daft as to not see it's very helpful so suggests they're bored and want to move on rather than keep supporting the remain backlash.
    It’s just due process, no big deal, no hidden message just an organization sticking by its rules. What’s your problem, they could nominate Brenda from Bristol if they wanted. You really don’t understand the concept of legislators playing by the rules as you support tories doing their best to break or game them at every turn.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    Benpointer said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    anyone scored a bonus point by finding a UKIP candidate yet?? Or the even rarer SDP?

    Birmingham Northfield, Brighton Pavillion, Carlisle etc.

    https://t.co/3ZlyVWtxaR
    There's one standing against Boris in Uxbridge and another in Croydon South.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited November 2019
    maaarsh said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
    EU letter was manna from Brussels, should get plenty of play out of that for several days if they play it right. Surely even the EU aren't that daft as to not see it's very helpful so suggests they're bored and want to move on rather than keep supporting the remain backlash.
    What are they going to play . The EU is simply asking for a response from the UK . There’s no court action planned . I see Tories in here seem to have gone into panic mode because the NHS has become the story rather than the lies being peddled by Patel .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    A very ordinary almost amateurish PPB by the Lib Dems but nonetheless very effective. Optimistic upbeat and just nice in an old fashioned way. Nice clip giving a speech with a baby strapped to her and a good line 'I'm a proud Scot a proud unionist and a proud European'.

    Just a pity about the shoes!

    Not seen Lib-Dem PEB. Has she followed Nabavi's advice and changed her hair do? :D
    I think that was my advice being the shallow person that I am. But no!
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    nichomar said:

    Lord bucket head and other loonies take on labour and the lib dems Uxbridge constituency

    maaarsh said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
    EU letter was manna from Brussels, should get plenty of play out of that for several days if they play it right. Surely even the EU aren't that daft as to not see it's very helpful so suggests they're bored and want to move on rather than keep supporting the remain backlash.
    It’s just due process, no big deal, no hidden message just an organization sticking by its rules. What’s your problem, they could nominate Brenda from Bristol if they wanted. You really don’t understand the concept of legislators playing by the rules as you support tories doing their best to break or game them at every turn.
    What a lovely piece of projection. If you honestly believe it isn't helpful for Boris to have a panto argument with the EU during an election campaign you're off the end of the pier; even the Guardian liveblog managed to admit it was very helpful for him.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Not had much reports from canvassers....anyone feel like giving some info? :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    I misread the header as:

    Each week he’ll [be] inventing a range of figures...

    Sounds like the Tories approach with their attacks on Labour policies.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    A very ordinary almost amateurish PPB by the Lib Dems but nonetheless very effective. Optimistic upbeat and just nice in an old fashioned way. Nice clip giving a speech with a baby strapped to her and a good line 'I'm a proud Scot a proud unionist and a proud European'.

    Just a pity about the shoes!

    Not seen Lib-Dem PEB. Has she followed Nabavi's advice and changed her hair do? :D
    I think that was my advice being the shallow person that I am. But no!
    It's a bit of a cheek criticising Swinson's haircut, especially against Johnson's bowl-cut!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    noisywinter said:

    Not had much reports from canvassers....anyone feel like giving some info? :)

    Anyone canvassing in this weather needs their head examined.

    No doubt HYUFD is out their pounding the pavement.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Watching Corbyn on the BBC, he looks utterly exhausted, and possibly ill. There's just nothing there. Just how many times can you keep saying you have no opinion on the major issues of the day if you want to be a PM? I'm beginning to see where others are coming from when they say Corbyn doesn't really want this.

    So what does he want? To re-model the Labour party in his own image - and send them into oblivion?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Roger said:

    A very ordinary almost amateurish PPB by the Lib Dems but nonetheless very effective. Optimistic upbeat and just nice in an old fashioned way. Nice clip giving a speech with a baby strapped to her and a good line 'I'm a proud Scot a proud unionist and a proud European'.

    Just a pity about the shoes!

    Clown shoes?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    maaarsh said:

    nichomar said:

    Lord bucket head and other loonies take on labour and the lib dems Uxbridge constituency

    maaarsh said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
    EU letter was manna from Brussels, should get plenty of play out of that for several days if they play it right. Surely even the EU aren't that daft as to not see it's very helpful so suggests they're bored and want to move on rather than keep supporting the remain backlash.
    It’s just due process, no big deal, no hidden message just an organization sticking by its rules. What’s your problem, they could nominate Brenda from Bristol if they wanted. You really don’t understand the concept of legislators playing by the rules as you support tories doing their best to break or game them at every turn.
    What a lovely piece of projection. If you honestly believe it isn't helpful for Boris to have a panto argument with the EU during an election campaign you're off the end of the pier; even the Guardian liveblog managed to admit it was very helpful for him.
    Actually I never meant to post the two together, just hadn’t noticed that the first comment re Uxbridge had got lost at the top but anybody who thinks the Eu sticking to due process is an intrusion in our democracy is a loonie leaver.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019
    Jason said:

    Watching Corbyn on the BBC, he looks utterly exhausted, and possibly ill. There's just nothing there. Just how many times can you keep saying you have no opinion on the major issues of the day if you want to be a PM? I'm beginning to see where others are coming from when they say Corbyn doesn't really want this.

    So what does he want? To re-model the Labour party in his own image - and send them into oblivion?

    Yes he is the ultimate entryist as was Martin McGuinness 😀
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Not sure that The SNP will benefit from headlines about their stewardship of health care in Scotland.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1195040044375052289
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    https://twitter.com/Donnan_S/status/1195057416167186432
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    nico67 said:

    maaarsh said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
    EU letter was manna from Brussels, should get plenty of play out of that for several days if they play it right. Surely even the EU aren't that daft as to not see it's very helpful so suggests they're bored and want to move on rather than keep supporting the remain backlash.
    What are they going to play . The EU is simply asking for a response from the UK .
    There’s no court action planned . I see Tories in here seem to have gone into panic mode because the NHS has become the story rather than the lies being peddled by Patel .
    Banner headlines in the Mail. Express and Sun etc : BORIS FACES DOWN THE EUROCRATS and similar, even more mileage from it if the Lib/Dems and SDP walk into the trap and say that we should be nominating commissioners.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT on why national debt will never be paid off.

    algarkirk said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    algarkirk said:

    What happens if you have borrowed £1tn at 1% and the rate rises say to 5%, and you have not paid it off and need to remortgage the country? That sounds like time to call in the receivers to me, and the idea it can't happen is nonsense.

    That's what happened with Greece and why the deficit needs to be under control but for the UK the debt mountain the rate can't simply rise to 5%. Its largely long-dated bonds fixed for 10-50 years. So only the deficit and a small amount of the mountain gets renewed each year.
    Thanks. Perhaps I am being simplistic, but doesn't that just transfer the risk to our grandchildren unless there is a plan for paying it off?

    So long as we're sane, no. So long as we're on a long-enough horizon if the interest rate spikes we will be under pressure to fix it and get it back down in a timely fashion, the deficit alone requires that and the debt mountain is thankfully not adjustable so quickly.

    Over the long term so long as we pay interest and are sensible between growth and inflation we ought to be able to bring debt-to-GDP down [it is already coming down] and we should target getting it back below 40%. But it doesn't have to be paid off.

    In 1968 UK GDP was $104 bn
    In 2018 UK GDP was £2622 bn

    Debt at 40% of 1968 that has never been paid off but interest paid would now be 1.56% of GDP.
    Aren't gilts inflation linked - so you can't rely on inflation to grow your way out of trouble?

    If we have a growth rate 1.5% greater than our deficit then it will take 37 years to reduce debt-to-GDP to 40%.

    It's easier to achieve if we can use inflation to do some of the job (and so only have to consider the difference between the nominal growth rate and the deficit), but given how much we borrowed during the last crisis it would be a great help to speed things along by actually paying some of the debt back - particularly as we will no doubt have a crisis or two in the next 37 years.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,361
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    A very ordinary almost amateurish PPB by the Lib Dems but nonetheless very effective. Optimistic upbeat and just nice in an old fashioned way. Nice clip giving a speech with a baby strapped to her and a good line 'I'm a proud Scot a proud unionist and a proud European'.

    Just a pity about the shoes!

    Not seen Lib-Dem PEB. Has she followed Nabavi's advice and changed her hair do? :D
    I think that was my advice being the shallow person that I am. But no!
    It's a bit of a cheek criticising Swinson's haircut, especially against Johnson's bowl-cut!
    Looks like they may share bowls to me.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited November 2019
    @Sandpit Re The Guido story on Corbyn's eyes, it may be speculation, it may be dishonest, it may be pushed by people who want his job. But what happens if it was true?

    Political parties and dishonesty concerning a leader's health is an age old problem, and it is a thorny question about when do you tell the public that the guy at the top isn't well enough to hold office.

    If Labour do lose, and Corbyn does step aside, will the poor health card be available on the day?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,361
    dr_spyn said:

    Not sure that The SNP will benefit from headlines about their stewardship of health care in Scotland.

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1195040044375052289

    Is that the best record of all NHS in the UK you are talking about. By a country mile
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    DeClare said:

    nico67 said:

    maaarsh said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
    EU letter was manna from Brussels, should get plenty of play out of that for several days if they play it right. Surely even the EU aren't that daft as to not see it's very helpful so suggests they're bored and want to move on rather than keep supporting the remain backlash.
    What are they going to play . The EU is simply asking for a response from the UK .
    There’s no court action planned . I see Tories in here seem to have gone into panic mode because the NHS has become the story rather than the lies being peddled by Patel .
    Banner headlines in the Mail. Express and Sun etc : BORIS FACES DOWN THE EUROCRATS and similar, even more mileage from it if the Lib/Dems and SDP walk into the trap and say that we should be nominating commissioners.

    Given the Lib Dems want to stay in the EU I think their voters would be quite happy to have a commissioner!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    malcolmg said:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    A very ordinary almost amateurish PPB by the Lib Dems but nonetheless very effective. Optimistic upbeat and just nice in an old fashioned way. Nice clip giving a speech with a baby strapped to her and a good line 'I'm a proud Scot a proud unionist and a proud European'.

    Just a pity about the shoes!

    Not seen Lib-Dem PEB. Has she followed Nabavi's advice and changed her hair do? :D
    I think that was my advice being the shallow person that I am. But no!
    It's a bit of a cheek criticising Swinson's haircut, especially against Johnson's bowl-cut!
    Looks like they may share bowls to me.
    If that’s not a euphemism, it’s given me a mental image I could have done without.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited November 2019
    SandyRentool said:

    noisywinter said:

    Not had much reports from canvassers....anyone feel like giving some info? :)

    Anyone canvassing in this weather needs their head examined.

    No doubt HYUFD is out their pounding the pavement.
    HYUFD has been test firing machine guns in the air today as he expects a Tory landslide! :wink:
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kle4 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tories standing in four seats in NI.

    North down is the only one they might save deposit in, and thats highly unlikely
    Nevertheless it is a positive thing to at least try. Not that it is unprecedented or as you say likely to succeed even to the point of saving a deposit in most of them, but why not try it? Yes, I know NI is NI, it's a special delicate little flower that others are not allowed to involve themselves in because the rest of the UK just doesn't get it, or whatever, but it is one nation here, the parties who stand across GB might as well stand in NI as well.
    Labour always used to consider the SDLP to be their equivalent party in NI, and for the Liberal Democrats that would be the Alliance - and there is of course a Green Party of Northern Ireland. Why would they want to stand candidates against these parties?

    Just because the Conservative Party fell out with the Ulster Unionists all that time ago, doesn't mean that the other UK parties are obliged to fall out with the NI parties they are close to.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Betting post.

    Most bookies have dropped their LibDem o/u since the campaign began. Paddy's now down to 31.5. But betvictor still at 38.5. I'm on the unders at 5/6. my current thinking is about 26 max.

    DYOR.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,361
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    A very ordinary almost amateurish PPB by the Lib Dems but nonetheless very effective. Optimistic upbeat and just nice in an old fashioned way. Nice clip giving a speech with a baby strapped to her and a good line 'I'm a proud Scot a proud unionist and a proud European'.

    Just a pity about the shoes!

    Not seen Lib-Dem PEB. Has she followed Nabavi's advice and changed her hair do? :D
    I think that was my advice being the shallow person that I am. But no!
    It's a bit of a cheek criticising Swinson's haircut, especially against Johnson's bowl-cut!
    Looks like they may share bowls to me.
    If that’s not a euphemism, it’s given me a mental image I could have done without.
    Put you off your dinner
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Just looking at the list of candidates for my patch:

    DAVIES Philip Andrew (Address in Tatton)

    Putting his pud ahead of his constituents.

    LibDems, Greens and Yorkshire Party all standing to split the anti-Tory vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    OblitusSumMe said:

    kle4 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Tories standing in four seats in NI.

    North down is the only one they might save deposit in, and thats highly unlikely
    Nevertheless it is a positive thing to at least try. Not that it is unprecedented or as you say likely to succeed even to the point of saving a deposit in most of them, but why not try it? Yes, I know NI is NI, it's a special delicate little flower that others are not allowed to involve themselves in because the rest of the UK just doesn't get it, or whatever, but it is one nation here, the parties who stand across GB might as well stand in NI as well.
    Labour always used to consider the SDLP to be their equivalent party in NI, and for the Liberal Democrats that would be the Alliance - and there is of course a Green Party of Northern Ireland. Why would they want to stand candidates against these parties?

    Just because the Conservative Party fell out with the Ulster Unionists all that time ago, doesn't mean that the other UK parties are obliged to fall out with the NI parties they are close to.
    I'm well aware of being allied with the other parties, but it depends on how closely allied they are, and if big differences emerge, which they certainly can, voiding the field the NI specific parties as if parties with national expectations should not even attempt it is unfortunate in my opinion. How you got from that that others are obiged to fall out with one another I do not know. I just think that alignment is not guaranteed, yet there very rarely seems any expectation that a line could be crossed and Labour for instance might think it necessary to stand against the SDLP. Perhaps that is an unlikely scenario, but if there is not good alignment attempts to stand should be encouraged - they could start in seats where it won't hurt their former allie, in an effort to see if there is any appetite for it in NI.
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    No Brexit party candidate in my definitely non-Tory seat. That means only one Brexit supporting candidate here should be getting my vote without even having to ask nicely (though tbf not asking is probably a good move since candidates usually ask nastily or misleadingly and make me want to vote for someone else or spoil my ballot).
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    This hand over the heart shit during national anthems better stop. The anthem is an irrelevance and why are we adopting more Americanisms
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    DeClare said:

    nico67 said:

    maaarsh said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Dreadful headlines for the Tories on the NHS. Trying to blame increased demand is pathetic when you should be planning for that . An early Christmas present for Labour who will make hay over this .

    How many minutes do you think the NHS will have left this time?
    The headlines are awful for the Tories . Not been a good day for Bozo especially with his car crash on ITV news .
    Still waiting for numbers from HQ I see.
    Lmao ! So you think it’s been a good day then for the Tories. I’m just calling it as I see it . The parties will all have good and bad days throughout the campaign . Labour had a terrible time last Friday , and today it’s the Tories turn .
    EU letter was manna from Brussels, should get plenty of play out of that for several days if they play it right. Surely even the EU aren't that daft as to not see it's very helpful so suggests they're bored and want to move on rather than keep supporting the remain backlash.
    What are they going to play . The EU is simply asking for a response from the UK .
    There’s no court action planned . I see Tories in here seem to have gone into panic mode because the NHS has become the story rather than the lies being peddled by Patel .
    Banner headlines in the Mail. Express and Sun etc : BORIS FACES DOWN THE EUROCRATS and similar, even more mileage from it if the Lib/Dems and SDP walk into the trap and say that we should be nominating commissioners.

    The SDP? Are you sure you haven't been asleep for the last 36 years?

    (yes, yes, I know they've been reborn as a Eurosceptic one-man band supported by such delightful characters as Rod Liddle and Giles Fraser)
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    The_Taxman said:

    SandyRentool said:

    noisywinter said:

    Not had much reports from canvassers....anyone feel like giving some info? :)

    Anyone canvassing in this weather needs their head examined.

    No doubt HYUFD is out their pounding the pavement.
    HYUFD has been test firing machine guns in the air today as he expects a Tory landslide! :wink:
    He's been called in by CCHQ. They're planning for the post-election invasion of Iberia.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    The_Taxman said:

    SandyRentool said:

    noisywinter said:

    Not had much reports from canvassers....anyone feel like giving some info? :)

    Anyone canvassing in this weather needs their head examined.

    No doubt HYUFD is out their pounding the pavement.
    HYUFD has been test firing machine guns in the air today as he expects a Tory landslide! :wink:
    A day for cleaning the Churchill tank......
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT on why national debt will never be paid off.

    algarkirk said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    algarkirk said:

    What happens if you have borrowed £1tn at 1% and the rate rises say to 5%, and you have not paid it off and need to remortgage the country? That sounds like time to call in the receivers to me, and the idea it can't happen is nonsense.

    That's what happened with Greece and why the deficit needs to be under control but for the UK the debt mountain the rate can't simply rise to 5%. Its largely long-dated bonds fixed for 10-50 years. So only the deficit and a small amount of the mountain gets renewed each year.
    Thanks. Perhaps I am being simplistic, but doesn't that just transfer the risk to our grandchildren unless there is a plan for paying it off?

    So long as we're sane, no. So long as we're on a long-enough horizon if the interest rate spikes we will be under pressure to fix it and get it back down in a timely fashion, the deficit alone requires that and the debt mountain is thankfully not adjustable so quickly.

    Over the long term so long as we pay interest and are sensible between growth and inflation we ought to be able to bring debt-to-GDP down [it is already coming down] and we should target getting it back below 40%. But it doesn't have to be paid off.

    In 1968 UK GDP was $104 bn
    In 2018 UK GDP was £2622 bn

    Debt at 40% of 1968 that has never been paid off but interest paid would now be 1.56% of GDP.
    Aren't gilts inflation linked - so you can't rely on inflation to grow your way out of trouble?

    If we have a growth rate 1.5% greater than our deficit then it will take 37 years to reduce debt-to-GDP to 40%.

    It's easier to achieve if we can use inflation to do some of the job (and so only have to consider the difference between the nominal growth rate and the deficit), but given how much we borrowed during the last crisis it would be a great help to speed things along by actually paying some of the debt back - particularly as we will no doubt have a crisis or two in the next 37 years.
    I believe only a quarter of gilts are index linked.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    nichomar said:

    This hand over the heart shit during national anthems better stop. The anthem is an irrelevance and why are we adopting more Americanisms

    Only stupid people sing national anthems.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Smart move by Labour to divert attention away from the shambles of our policy on a second Indyref.

    Unfortunately we've achieved this by generating a new shambles related to our policy on freedom of movement.

    Looks like the NHS is all we have to play with.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    I do hope Stephen Walker is enjoying his dinner tonight. After all, it rather looks as though he was himself eaten for lunch:

    https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/skwawkbox-blogger-defends-particularly-newsworthy-17258177

    The Steve Bannon of British blogging. With less intellect.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,002
    Bugger, one of the best accounts on twitter going.

    https://twitter.com/communistbops/status/1195064883798269953?s=20
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Donnan_S/status/1195057416167186432

    Not unusual if the candidate writes a nickname in the wrong column (or otherwise ambiguously) of the nomination form. Returning Officers are very straight down the line. An (independent) candidate for a nearby Parish Council once had their party listed as "Ballot Paper Rogers Monty Monty Nickname" for the same reason.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MarqueeMark said:

    The_Taxman said:

    SandyRentool said:

    noisywinter said:

    Not had much reports from canvassers....anyone feel like giving some info? :)

    Anyone canvassing in this weather needs their head examined.

    No doubt HYUFD is out their pounding the pavement.
    HYUFD has been test firing machine guns in the air today as he expects a Tory landslide! :wink:
    A day for cleaning the Churchill tank......
    Is that another description for a septic tank as far as modern day tories go?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    SandyRentool said:

    Smart move by Labour to divert attention away from the shambles of our policy on a second Indyref.

    Unfortunately we've achieved this by generating a new shambles related to our policy on freedom of movement.

    Looks like the NHS is all we have to play with.

    That’s not quite true, you had a shambles on IHT as well.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Donnan_S/status/1195057416167186432

    Knowing what a monumental idiot that guy is, I wonder whether it's a cunning way to gather more votes. Like Ruth Davidson's Team not mentioning the Conservatives or Ian Murray for Morningside not mentioning his party either.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    nichomar said:

    This hand over the heart shit during national anthems better stop. The anthem is an irrelevance and why are we adopting more Americanisms

    Getting ready for when the UK becomes a vassal state of the USA .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,002
    nichomar said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    The_Taxman said:

    SandyRentool said:

    noisywinter said:

    Not had much reports from canvassers....anyone feel like giving some info? :)

    Anyone canvassing in this weather needs their head examined.

    No doubt HYUFD is out their pounding the pavement.
    HYUFD has been test firing machine guns in the air today as he expects a Tory landslide! :wink:
    A day for cleaning the Churchill tank......
    Is that another description for a septic tank as far as modern day tories go?
    A bunch of Sherman tankers possibly..

  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019
    Noo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Donnan_S/status/1195057416167186432

    Knowing what a monumental idiot that guy is, I wonder whether it's a cunning way to gather more votes. Like Ruth Davidson's Team not mentioning the Conservatives or Ian Murray for Morningside not mentioning his party either.
    I’m trying to picture a way in which the form could be ambiguous over what goes in what box. I’m drawing a blank...... The man must have the IQ of a telegraph pole.
  • Greenwich_FloaterGreenwich_Floater Posts: 389
    Probably not a great day for the Tories with the NHS. But on the other side of the coin the devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales are not doing any better with it.

    It does either need a shed load cash chucking at it, or a rethink.

    A lot of the money chucked at it in the 2000s was spent on pay (in many cases justifiable) whereas a lot of capital infrastructure was funded by PPI which is now strangling it financially.

    Is there a model working anywhere else in the world that doesn't need a much bigger chunk of GDP spend?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Greenwich_Floater said:

    Probably not a great day for the Tories with the NHS. But on the other side of the coin the devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales are not doing any better with it.

    It does either need a shed load cash chucking at it, or a rethink.

    A lot of the money chucked at it in the 2000s was spent on pay (in many cases justifiable) whereas a lot of capital infrastructure was funded by PPI which is now strangling it financially.

    Is there a model working anywhere else in the world that doesn't need a much bigger chunk of GDP spend?

    Spain. Singapore.
  • Greenwich_FloaterGreenwich_Floater Posts: 389
    ozymandias said:

    Greenwich_Floater said:

    Probably not a great day for the Tories with the NHS. But on the other side of the coin the devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales are not doing any better with it.

    It does either need a shed load cash chucking at it, or a rethink.

    A lot of the money chucked at it in the 2000s was spent on pay (in many cases justifiable) whereas a lot of capital infrastructure was funded by PPI which is now strangling it financially.

    Is there a model working anywhere else in the world that doesn't need a much bigger chunk of GDP spend?

    Spain. Singapore.
    Enlighten me
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    What impact will the end of free movement of capital after the UK leaves the EU. Have on the ease of moving substantial sums back to the UK. I’m not aware of capital movement restrictions in Spain but it came up this afternoon in the debate over IHT for those living abroad.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    El_Capitano said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Donnan_S/status/1195057416167186432

    Not unusual if the candidate writes a nickname in the wrong column (or otherwise ambiguously) of the nomination form. Returning Officers are very straight down the line. An (independent) candidate for a nearby Parish Council once had their party listed as "Ballot Paper Rogers Monty Monty Nickname" for the same reason.
    I do love the description tab in parish elections. You see plenty of 'local resident', 'farmer' 'pensioner' and so forth, but I've seen 'born and bred in x' and I swear one which said 'tall'. Important information to know.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Time_to_Leave said:

    Noo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Donnan_S/status/1195057416167186432

    Knowing what a monumental idiot that guy is, I wonder whether it's a cunning way to gather more votes. Like Ruth Davidson's Team not mentioning the Conservatives or Ian Murray for Morningside not mentioning his party either.
    I’m trying to picture a way in which the form could be ambiguous over what goes in what box. I’m drawing a blank...... The man must have the IQ of a telegraph pole.
    He's as sharp as a button.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019
    EU is launching legal action against the government for failing to nominate a commissioner during the GE campaign.

    I am sure boris isnt exactly unhappy about it. Imagine if they had, it would be politically toxic to do so and the EU are idiots for not just holding fire and instead giving Boris something to bang on about.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Amazing spread of candidates in Broxtowe:

    https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2019/11/14/election-special-interview-with-green-candidate-kat-boettge-official-candidate-list-announced/
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    tlg86 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    anyone scored a bonus point by finding a UKIP candidate yet?? Or the even rarer SDP?

    Ukip are standing in Woking.
    Standing for the unwoke
This discussion has been closed.