That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to go
Indeed.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5% Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 one
Nor do I. But it will be interesting to see where it differs.
The Tory lead started to crumble 21 days ahead of the 2017 GE.
Was that around the time of the loony we'll take away pensioner benefits " message?
The 2017 voting stats suggest that the pensioners lapped it up. Their grandchildren were appalled!
really?
Say what you like about Theresa May, but she racked up a lot of pensioner votes (69% of over 70s).
I assume it's caused by rationing in their youth - they prefer to be treated mean.
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixties
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.
It was a national institution and she left it and went to 'Jenners' another Princes Street institution of it's day and just at the time my dear wife and I got engaged below the Scott Monument in Princes Street gardens
So many happy memories of 'Auld Reekie'
My mum and I visited Jenners last week. She is a former loyal, regular customer. She was absolutely horrified. The brand name might survive (briefly), but the institution is stone dead. Tragic to witness.
Edinburgh is a conundrum. So much is outstanding. So much is total shite.
Don’t get me going on what they were doing under the Scott Monument.
My great grandfather had the first electric vacuum cleaner in the city of Edinburgh. I have a very soft spot for the place. My grandmother spoke very precise Morningside (I was going to say broad Morningside, but Morningside isn't broad) her whole life, even 50 years after leaving the place.
I stayed in digs in Morningside in 1960
I took you for a much younger man BigG
Obviously you didn't get Big and establish NorthWales as a fiefdom overnight, but you nonetheless surprise me
nunu2 said: "Your in a safe Tory seat. Dr. Sarah is not going to win it."
So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?
All fail.
While that's probably true, you're missing the fun here.
Rank the defectors by size of loss, in votes. Use a negative number to indicate a win.
I can then work out who got closest, and send a prize :-)
Robert, I was just going to suggest that very thing! Then I realised I couldn't really remember who Gavin Shuker was and gave up. Still, a fun task. Do we include the likes of Williamson too? I'm ranking him last.
And let's face it, at least a couple of Mogg's points will be by virtue of people having heard of him.
My take on it is it may seem Another day when Tories vacated the battlefield and allowed opponents to put ideas out there, but there were key moments about today that clearly points to the result.
In case you missed it, Guardian pretty sceptical how it is going for Corbyn today, trying to break it gently to their readership that the bubble has burst and he’s going to lose big
“just anecdotally, the atmosphere is warm here, but the audience doesn’t seem quite as big, as young or as lively as the most memorable Labour events I went to during the 2017 campaign. Back then, some Corbyn fans were coming from miles around just to get a glimpse of their man. Labour campaigners I chatted to here said they were finding a lot of “undecideds” on the doorstep. Perhaps enthusiasm will build as we get closer to 12 December?”
Luke warm atmosphere, small crowds, voters in key seats in Blackpool politely uncommitted on the doorstep contrasts will the oomph, excitement, big crowds and star quality Boris is drawing in his grand tour. A picture is beginning to emerge now of the final result, isn’t it?
Possibly, although could just be playing the same game as the Tories, who for the most part are downplaying their changes to avoid being triumphant, so even if they think Labour will stage the same Corbynmiracle as last time, they don't want to appear as though they are guaranteeing it?
I agree the idea they genuinely are trying to suggest it will not happen is more likely, but for now at least there's just enough signs which can be argued to give hope or fear as needed.
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...
Spurs fans are looking over our shoulders at them....
Indeed a lot of my mates are Spurs fans, its been a golden season for taking the mick...
Watford right back in contention! We are going to wear our Corbyn masks for all future games to scare off the opposition!
I was at the Watford game on Friday night. We were awful and made them look better that they were. in 7 games Norwich have conceded 16 goals and scored 2 consolation goals. We even manage to make ManUre look good the other week
Why have the Canaries got so many injuries. What do they do in training? They looked so good in their first few games.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
Labour don't usually stand down for other parties.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
They've still got time to replace him. It's not his decision to make whether Lib Dems stand there.
There are some odd photos emerging of EdM following Corbyn around. He looks a broken man. Reminds me of that character in GoT - Greyjoy I think. Alarming!
Theon Greyjoy aka Reek
Nahh, the Reek in the Labour/GoT crossoververse is Andy Burnham. Ed Miliband would be...Sean Bean?
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
Swinson might have some (extremely well-hidden) merits, but cultivating party discipline is clearly not one of them.
Quite marked differences in the Green vote. 4% in the YouGov and just 1% in the Survation .
I think the Lib Dems are in a bit of trouble . Looking at the Ashcroft poll. 92% of Labour Remainers from 2017 would rather see a Corbyn government .
I still think the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% by the GE , I’d go as low as 10% , the BP not standing in Tory seats is going to make life much more difficult for them .
I’d like to see them do well but I think things are moving against them .
The Brexit situation has developed not necessarily to the LibDem's advantage.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
They've still got time to replace him. It's not his decision to make whether Lib Dems stand there.
True, but it's whether his attitude is reflected in some people who would like to vote LD which I thought more significant. How many will decide that they cannot risk voting LD and lose a Remaining backing Labour MP, when even a LD candidate wants to do the same?
Whether they do replace him, and what kind of reaction in the party there is to him doing so will be very interested.
Vote Jo, get Jeremy. Honestly, Lib Dems, you hadyour once in a generation chance to overtake Labour, be the sane alternative to the Conservatives, and you've pissed it up the wall.
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...
Spurs fans are looking over our shoulders at them....
Indeed a lot of my mates are Spurs fans, its been a golden season for taking the mick...
Watford right back in contention! We are going to wear our Corbyn masks for all future games to scare off the opposition!
I was at the Watford game on Friday night. We were awful and made them look better that they were. in 7 games Norwich have conceded 16 goals and scored 2 consolation goals. We even manage to make ManUre look good the other week
Spludgfish - I suspect we will both be in the Championship next season. But hopefully it will be Villa, Southampton and someone else instead!
From a purely selfish point of view if Norwich go down I want it to be with Southampton and Watford as I think they are least prepared for the championship.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
So your advice to Swinson would be to roll with what the chap has decided, and encourage it further I assume?
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
Certainly. And I believe that the Lib Dem candidate in Johnsons constituency pulled out yesterday for "personal reasons." Unofficial alliances at local level will obviously help the anti- Tory parties. Tactical voting will be more important than ever before in this election I think.
Vote Jo, get Jeremy. Honestly, Lib Dems, you hadyour once in a generation chance to overtake Labour, be the sane alternative to the Conservatives, and you've pissed it up the wall.
If she has a brain, she still has 36 hours to get a new candidate in
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...
Spurs fans are looking over our shoulders at them....
Indeed a lot of my mates are Spurs fans, its been a golden season for taking the mick...
Watford right back in contention! We are going to wear our Corbyn masks for all future games to scare off the opposition!
I was at the Watford game on Friday night. We were awful and made them look better that they were. in 7 games Norwich have conceded 16 goals and scored 2 consolation goals. We even manage to make ManUre look good the other week
Why have the Canaries got so many injuries. What do they do in training? They looked so good in their first few games.
Some of it has been bad luck (bad tackles) but there has also been a spate of 'groin strains'. To the point that Grant Hanley has had to have surgery to fix it.
The lack of an experienced centre back has hurt our chances but we are also not looking like the team that won the championship last season. we look much more like the team that finished 14th the season before
It makes sense, although it's the sort of thing that made sense yesterday, last week, and last month, with the 'unholy alliance' of BXP and Tory (as opposed to the good kind of alliance) announcement.
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...
Spurs fans are looking over our shoulders at them....
Indeed a lot of my mates are Spurs fans, its been a golden season for taking the mick...
Watford right back in contention! We are going to wear our Corbyn masks for all future games to scare off the opposition!
I was at the Watford game on Friday night. We were awful and made them look better that they were. in 7 games Norwich have conceded 16 goals and scored 2 consolation goals. We even manage to make ManUre look good the other week
Spludgfish - I suspect we will both be in the Championship next season. But hopefully it will be Villa, Southampton and someone else instead!
fair enough!
From a purely selfish point of view if Norwich go down I want it to be with Southampton and Watford as I think they are least prepared for the championship.
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixties
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.
It was a national institution and she left it and went to 'Jenners' another Princes Street institution of it's day and just at the time my dear wife and I got engaged below the Scott Monument in Princes Street gardens
So many happy memories of 'Auld Reekie'
My mum and I visited Jenners last week. She is a former loyal, regular customer. She was absolutely horrified. The brand name might survive (briefly), but the institution is stone dead. Tragic to witness.
Edinburgh is a conundrum. So much is outstanding. So much is total shite.
Don’t get me going on what they were doing under the Scott Monument.
My great grandfather had the first electric vacuum cleaner in the city of Edinburgh. I have a very soft spot for the place. My grandmother spoke very precise Morningside (I was going to say broad Morningside, but Morningside isn't broad) her whole life, even 50 years after leaving the place.
I stayed in digs in Morningside in 1960
I took you for a much younger man BigG
Obviously you didn't get Big and establish NorthWales as a fiefdom overnight, but you nonetheless surprise me
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
Certainly. And I believe that the Lib Dem candidate in Johnsons constituency pulled out yesterday for "personal reasons." Unofficial alliances at local level will obviously help the anti- Tory parties. Tactical voting will be more important than ever before in this election I think.
At this rate the Brexit Party will have more candidates than the LibDems. And it won't help Jo's case to be in the debates because the number of candidates fielded will be one of the factors that will be considered in their legal action.
I'm getting some very cryptic messages from CCHQ about tonight's party political broadcast. Saying it will be like ntg we have ever seen before...
Man the lifeboats
Where is it on?
On youtube now, and unfortunately it's crap
That's ok, crap I can cope with.
On BBC1 now, and yes it's a party election shitpost.
Meh, I have just watch it on Boris' Twitter feed. It's fine. I did enjoy the very faint crashing sound at the end heard 'off' that makes it seem like he bashed into something.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
They've still got time to replace him. It's not his decision to make whether Lib Dems stand there.
True, but it's whether his attitude is reflected in some people who would like to vote LD which I thought more significant. How many will decide that they cannot risk voting LD and lose a Remaining backing Labour MP, when even a LD candidate wants to do the same?
Whether they do replace him, and what kind of reaction in the party there is to him doing so will be very interested.
My son, a student at Kent, says the students have fallen for Labour’s no student fees line. As he is studying Economics, he hasn't.
I think what the Starmer wants is some left-wing credibility for the upcoming leadership contest.
Starmer is an arse.
I've worked for McDonald's. I doubt Starmer has done a day's hard work in his life.
You don't think explaining Labour's Brexit policy has been hard? He's managed to slowly edge Corbyn into new positions and the party into one which will probably ignore Corbyn's personal wishes, that wasn't easy.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
I think that's quite possible. I know of other last-minute withdrawals under discussion - Farage's move has really concentrated minds - and certainly there is a great deal of "we have to stand but you won't even notice us" going on.
Got the first Tory leaflet today - A3, about 75% has the air of a routine constituency newsletter- local people back Jeremy Hunt favouring clean air (seriously!), an X-ray machine has been saved, and suchlike. It only gets round to the election in the last half page, where it urges us to vote for Jeremy (er, Hunt).
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixties
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.
It was a national institution and she left it and went to 'Jenners' another Princes Street institution of it's day and just at the time my dear wife and I got engaged below the Scott Monument in Princes Street gardens
So many happy memories of 'Auld Reekie'
My mum and I visited Jenners last week. She is a former loyal, regular customer. She was absolutely horrified. The brand name might survive (briefly), but the institution is stone dead. Tragic to witness.
Edinburgh is a conundrum. So much is outstanding. So much is total shite.
Don’t get me going on what they were doing under the Scott Monument.
My great grandfather had the first electric vacuum cleaner in the city of Edinburgh. I have a very soft spot for the place. My grandmother spoke very precise Morningside (I was going to say broad Morningside, but Morningside isn't broad) her whole life, even 50 years after leaving the place.
I stayed in digs in Morningside in 1960
I took you for a much younger man BigG
Obviously you didn't get Big and establish NorthWales as a fiefdom overnight, but you nonetheless surprise me
That is so kind of you on the eve of my dear wifes 80th and my soon to be 76th
We left Edinburgh in 1965 for North Wales but it will forever be in our hearts
That party political by the Tories was dreadful. WTF was the bit about whether BJ preferred Fish and Chips or a Roast meal about? Seriously, if that is the best the Tories can produce then I wonder why they are in politics. I suppose it was meant to be his man of the people appeal but it looked so ridiculously contrived I doubt it will have had much of an effect. Added to which I am at a former Tory voters house and they turned it off saying "what is that idiot doing on here!"
Tories are in for a big shock like a reverse 1970....
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to go
Talks of landslides unnerve me and maybe you a little bit
Farage's move looks like a huge moment but until the results are revealed I intend keeping my feet on the ground.
That old expression 'once bitten, twice shy' comes very much to mind
The difference is Boris is ruthless, charismatic and can campaign unlike poor Theresa and will not do gaffes like the Dementia Tax
Agreed, Boris’s gaffes will be completely different, but no less damaging. He is certainly ruthless.
They won't be as he will promise tax cuts and more spending not tax rises and spending cuts and with delivering Brexit on top that is all that matters to swing voters
"...tax cuts and more spending..."
Whatever happened to sound financial management?
Unemployment is half 2010 levels and the deficit is down but a populist campaign is needed to win, more 2017 pain will lose
It's sad that lying to the electorate is considered a sensible strategy.
I assume this is it, (Conservative broadcast) defiantly could be worse.
Might be seen as trivialising things, but probably not going to put people off.
Is it funny enough to be shard a lot on Facebook and other social media, probably not.
Do I expect it to be parodied a lot in next for days, maybe?
It's pretty cheesy in its 'let's pretend we're actually just having a random chat with Boris while he grabs a cup of tea' style, but in fairness for the most part it was delivered as naturally as it could be. Parodies of it could well be very funny indeed. 6/10, slightly more memorable than most, not cringingly effusive, but bland in content and phony.
That party political by the Tories was dreadful. WTF was the bit about whether BJ preferred Fish and Chips or a Roast meal about? Seriously, if that is the best the Tories can produce then I wonder why they are in politics. I suppose it was meant to be his man of the people appeal but it looked so ridiculously contrived I doubt it will have had much of an effect. Added to which I am at a former Tory voters house and they turned it off saying "what is that idiot doing on here!"
Tories are in for a big shock like a reverse 1970....
I didn't watch it either but that doesn't mean It was a car crash,, as I haven't seen it!
I think what the Starmer wants is some left-wing credibility for the upcoming leadership contest.
Starmer is an arse.
I've worked for McDonald's. I doubt Starmer has done a day's hard work in his life.
You don't think explaining Labour's Brexit policy has been hard? He's managed to slowly edge Corbyn into new positions and the party into one which will probably ignore Corbyn's personal wishes, that wasn't easy.
His massaging skills may be excellent. I've no view. Quite what he's doing on a McDonald's protest escapes me though. A dismal figure.
That party political by the Tories was dreadful. WTF was the bit about whether BJ preferred Fish and Chips or a Roast meal about? Seriously, if that is the best the Tories can produce then I wonder why they are in politics. I suppose it was meant to be his man of the people appeal but it looked so ridiculously contrived I doubt it will have had much of an effect. Added to which I am at a former Tory voters house and they turned it off saying "what is that idiot doing on here!"
Tories are in for a big shock like a reverse 1970....
That walking interview style thing is done a lot on YouTube. It's not new, and the established form is that there are trivial questions 'chucked in'. It holds the attention more than a seated interview because you're noaing around someone's gaff.
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
A 6% Tory lead with Survation is about the same as Cameron's 2010 and 2015 leads, hardly Corbyn majority
the effect of BREX standing down is to widen the gap by only 1 percentage point?
Extra votes where you don’t really need them?
HYUFD also needs to take into account the 10% CORBYN surge which might come in the last two weeks
Stop ramping labour 23-25 less than 180 seats. If you believe differently let’s see your buy on the spreads for labour seats, it’s obviously good value
I assume this is it, (Conservative broadcast) defiantly could be worse.
Might be seen as trivialising things, but probably not going to put people off.
Is it funny enough to be shard a lot on Facebook and other social media, probably not.
Do I expect it to be parodied a lot in next for days, maybe?
It just reinforces the impression he is a lightweight idiot who is not serious...
I really don't think it does. I think he is both those things, but that video doesn't speak to that at all, since it's obviously meant to come across as casual and down to earth, neither of which (even if genuine, rather than staged) would mean he is lightweight not taking things seriously. Even leaders don't need to be dour and serious 100% of the time. Boris could stand to be those things a lot more than he is, but a PPB where he is playing it casually doesn't mean he is incapable of it, anymore than Corbyn usually being serious means he is incapable of levity.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
Certainly. And I believe that the Lib Dem candidate in Johnsons constituency pulled out yesterday for "personal reasons." Unofficial alliances at local level will obviously help the anti- Tory parties. Tactical voting will be more important than ever before in this election I think.
At this rate the Brexit Party will have more candidates than the LibDems. And it won't help Jo's case to be in the debates because the number of candidates fielded will be one of the factors that will be considered in their legal action.
That's not really true. The LibDems are standing down in about 20 seats in Great Britain. The Brexit Party is not standing in 300.
That party political by the Tories was dreadful. WTF was the bit about whether BJ preferred Fish and Chips or a Roast meal about? Seriously, if that is the best the Tories can produce then I wonder why they are in politics. I suppose it was meant to be his man of the people appeal but it looked so ridiculously contrived I doubt it will have had much of an effect. Added to which I am at a former Tory voters house and they turned it off saying "what is that idiot doing on here!"
Tories are in for a big shock like a reverse 1970....
That walking interview style thing is done a lot on YouTube.
It just puts me in mind of most procedural cop/medical/politics shows, where the characters usually discuss things while walking around the hallways for no reason. Good old 'walk and talk'.
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
I think that's quite possible. I know of other last-minute withdrawals under discussion - Farage's move has really concentrated minds - and certainly there is a great deal of "we have to stand but you won't even notice us" going on.
No idea what conversations this guy had with the party leadership but the *candidate* being the one who stands down is a nice way to avoid the deal-with-Corbyn cooties and minimize the lost Tory remain switchers .
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
A 6% Tory lead with Survation is about the same as Cameron's 2010 and 2015 leads, hardly Corbyn majority
the effect of BREX standing down is to widen the gap by only 1 percentage point?
Extra votes where you don’t really need them?
HYUFD also needs to take into account the 10% CORBYN surge which might come in the last two weeks
Stop ramping labour 23-25 less than 180 seats. If you believe differently let’s see your buy on the spreads for labour seats, it’s obviously good value
Maybe I have already!
Or have I bought LDs standing in less than 180 seats?!
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
Certainly. And I believe that the Lib Dem candidate in Johnsons constituency pulled out yesterday for "personal reasons." Unofficial alliances at local level will obviously help the anti- Tory parties. Tactical voting will be more important than ever before in this election I think.
At this rate the Brexit Party will have more candidates than the LibDems. And it won't help Jo's case to be in the debates because the number of candidates fielded will be one of the factors that will be considered in their legal action.
That's not really true. The LibDems are standing down in about 20 seats in Great Britain. The Brexit Party is not standing in 300.
I’d be mightily pissed if I were a Lib Dem voter in Canterbury. I’m only voting Lib Dem because I want neither Corbyn nor Johnson. If they start being Corbyn’s little helpers they can forget about my vote.
That party political by the Tories was dreadful. WTF was the bit about whether BJ preferred Fish and Chips or a Roast meal about? Seriously, if that is the best the Tories can produce then I wonder why they are in politics. I suppose it was meant to be his man of the people appeal but it looked so ridiculously contrived I doubt it will have had much of an effect. Added to which I am at a former Tory voters house and they turned it off saying "what is that idiot doing on here!"
Tories are in for a big shock like a reverse 1970....
That walking interview style thing is done a lot on YouTube. It's not new, and the established form is that there are trivial questions 'chucked in'. It holds the attention more than a seated interview because you're noaing around someone's gaff.
I thought it was terrible! We keep hearing this mantra that he is a good campaigner but that was dreadful. It just reinforces the impression of people like me, he has nothing to offer but crass buffoonery. He does not seem to acknowledge the chaos he has created and more to the point does not offer a realistic program. It is no good going on about Corbyn when your own program is as bad?
Personally, I am inching away from voting LD and just going to go to Labour! Corbyn can be no worse than BJ....
It was stock words delivered in faux-casual style, I think people should be wary of getting too exercised about how awful it was. We at least have a chance of remembering a PPB where Boris pretended he was just nipping out to get a cup of tea.
I hope Corbyn retaliates with one with him literally in his allotment, going into the shed where it's revealed a solidarity meeting of a BAME Labour forum is being held for some reason, who all tell him how great Labour is.
I know I go on about this, but to return to my regular theme of what a total piece of crap the FTPA is, I present this article from last week's Newstatesman:
"Prudence, historically the cardinal constitutional virtue, would still create an obligation for governments eschewing a referendum to allow for a general election before legislating for constitutional change.
In taking away the prerogative power to dissolve parliament, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act makes such caution impossible without co-operation from the opposition."
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
A 6% Tory lead with Survation is about the same as Cameron's 2010 and 2015 leads, hardly Corbyn majority
the effect of BREX standing down is to widen the gap by only 1 percentage point?
Extra votes where you don’t really need them?
HYUFD also needs to take into account the 10% CORBYN surge which might come in the last two weeks
Stop ramping labour 23-25 less than 180 seats. If you believe differently let’s see your buy on the spreads for labour seats, it’s obviously good value
Maybe I have already!
Or have I bought LDs standing in less than 180 seats?!
Don’t be a complete prat and try sounding as if you are over 12 for a change
He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
I think that might be as outdated as the commonly held view in 2008 that whites were not ready to vote for a black President.
It is certainly true that by and large the black community was very socially conservative on sexual orientation issues, and it took a long while for black gay men to be as visible as white or asian gay men. But it is now commonplace to see black gay men, so my suspicion is that their families, and hence that community, has moved a long way in the last two decades.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
think.
At this rate the Brexit Party will have more candidates than the LibDems. And it won't help Jo's case to be in the debates because the number of candidates fielded will be one of the factors that will be considered in their legal action.
That's not really true. The LibDems are standing down in about 20 seats in Great Britain. The Brexit Party is not standing in 300.
I’d be mightily pissed if I were a Lib Dem voter in Canterbury. I’m only voting Lib Dem because I want neither Corbyn nor Johnson. If they start being Corbyn’s little helpers they can forget about my vote.
Interesting mix on here, similar to the immediate reactions to whether Farage's move was as positive for the Tories as it seems. Dr Foxy seems ebullient about this move, while Fenman seems pretty outraged.
For me I wonder at whether formal remain alliances or informal remain alliances are most effective, or even whether unspoken remain alliances and relying on the public to tactically vote without seeming to push them one way or another is the best way to go.
If Canterbury starts a trend, then it looks like the LDs and Labour will be going for informal alliance as the way to go.
I thought it was terrible! We keep hearing this mantra that he is a good campaigner but that was dreadful. It just reinforces the impression of people like me, he has nothing to offer but crass buffoonery. He does not seem to acknowledge the chaos he has created and more to the point does not offer a realistic program. It is no good going on about Corbyn when your own program is as bad?
Personally, I am inching away from voting LD and just going to go to Labour! Corbyn can be no worse than BJ....
A lot of those points might be true enough, but 'he does not seem to acknowledge the chaos he has created' strikes me as an odd criticism. Why on earth would he ever do that? What party leader would ever do that?
Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
Certainly. And I believe that the Lib Dem candidate in Johnsons constituency pulled out yesterday for "personal reasons." Unofficial alliances at local level will obviously help the anti- Tory parties. Tactical voting will be more important than ever before in this election I think.
At this rate the Brexit Party will have more candidates than the LibDems. And it won't help Jo's case to be in the debates because the number of candidates fielded will be one of the factors that will be considered in their legal action.
That's not really true. The LibDems are standing down in about 20 seats in Great Britain. The Brexit Party is not standing in 300.
I did say 'at this rate'... not meant to be entirely serious.
It was stock words delivered in faux-casual style, I think people should be wary of getting too exercised about how awful it was. We at least have a chance of remembering a PPB where Boris pretended he was just nipping out to get a cup of tea.
I hope Corbyn retaliates with one with him literally in his allotment, going into the shed where it's revealed a solidarity meeting of a BAME Labour forum is being held for some reason, who all tell him how great Labour is.
Maybe Corbyn should have himself in a video clearing horse shit up in his allotment and simply say "I have the skills to clean the Tories mess up!" Because lets be honest the Tories have created an utter mess and have been in a state of utter shambles for 3 years...
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
A 6% Tory lead with Survation is about the same as Cameron's 2010 and 2015 leads, hardly Corbyn majority
the effect of BREX standing down is to widen the gap by only 1 percentage point?
Extra votes where you don’t really need them?
HYUFD also needs to take into account the 10% CORBYN surge which might come in the last two weeks
Stop ramping labour 23-25 less than 180 seats. If you believe differently let’s see your buy on the spreads for labour seats, it’s obviously good value
Maybe I have already!
Or have I bought LDs standing in less than 180 seats?!
I know I go on about this, but to return to my regular theme of what a total piece of crap the FTPA is, I present this article from last week's Newstatesman:
"Prudence, historically the cardinal constitutional virtue, would still create an obligation for governments eschewing a referendum to allow for a general election before legislating for constitutional change.
In taking away the prerogative power to dissolve parliament, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act makes such caution impossible without co-operation from the opposition."
Quietly devastating I think.
This is total bollocks, if a government has a majority and the time to make a constitutional change that it wants then it's not going to call an election before it does it, FTPA or not.
On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
think.
At this rate the Brexit Party will have more candidates than the LibDems. And it won't help Jo's case to be in the debates because the number of candidates fielded will be one of the factors that will be considered in their legal action.
That's not really true. The LibDems are standing down in about 20 seats in Great Britain. The Brexit Party is not standing in 300.
.
Interesting mix on here, similar to the immediate reactions to whether Farage's move was as positive for the Tories as it seems. Dr Foxy seems ebullient about this move, while Fenman seems pretty outraged.
For me I wonder at whether formal remain alliances or informal remain alliances are most effective, or even whether unspoken remain alliances and relying on the public to tactically vote without seeming to push them one way or another is the best way to go.
If Canterbury starts a trend, then it looks like the LDs and Labour will be going for informal alliance as the way to go.
I thought it was terrible! We keep hearing this mantra that he is a good campaigner but that was dreadful. It just reinforces the impression of people like me, he has nothing to offer but crass buffoonery. He does not seem to acknowledge the chaos he has created and more to the point does not offer a realistic program. It is no good going on about Corbyn when your own program is as bad?
Personally, I am inching away from voting LD and just going to go to Labour! Corbyn can be no worse than BJ....
A lot of those points might be true enough, but 'he does not seem to acknowledge the chaos he has created' strikes me as an odd criticism. Why on earth would he ever do that? What party leader would ever do that?
He blames everybody else but himself. A bit of humility would be nice. Maybe he can write two columns on whether he owns Brexit and is to blame for the chaos or not? At the moment he wants to own Brexit but none of the negatives. No different to any other politician I suppose but I despise him!
I assume this is it, (Conservative broadcast) defiantly could be worse.
Might be seen as trivialising things, but probably not going to put people off.
Is it funny enough to be shard a lot on Facebook and other social media, probably not.
Do I expect it to be parodied a lot in next for days, maybe?
Fake! He doesn't take his teabag out of his mug! Where's he going to put it now that he's left the kitchen? I assume they gave it to him to prevent his excessive handwaving, and he still nearly spills it. Tea is serious business and he's trying to trick me. Bet he drinks coffee all the time.
Honestly, Lib Dems, you had your once in a generation chance to overtake Labour, be the sane alternative to the Conservatives, and you've pissed it up the wall.
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
A 6% Tory lead with Survation is about the same as Cameron's 2010 and 2015 leads, hardly Corbyn majority
the effect of BREX standing down is to widen the gap by only 1 percentage point?
Extra votes where you don’t really need them?
HYUFD also needs to take into account the 10% CORBYN surge which might come in the last two weeks
Stop ramping labour 23-25 less than 180 seats. If you believe differently let’s see your buy on the spreads for labour seats, it’s obviously good value
Maybe I have already!
Or have I bought LDs standing in less than 180 seats?!
Don’t be a complete prat and try sounding as if you are over 12 for a change
That party political by the Tories was dreadful. WTF was the bit about whether BJ preferred Fish and Chips or a Roast meal about? Seriously, if that is the best the Tories can produce then I wonder why they are in politics. I suppose it was meant to be his man of the people appeal but it looked so ridiculously contrived I doubt it will have had much of an effect. Added to which I am at a former Tory voters house and they turned it off saying "what is that idiot doing on here!"
Tories are in for a big shock like a reverse 1970....
That walking interview style thing is done a lot on YouTube. It's not new, and the established form is that there are trivial questions 'chucked in'. It holds the attention more than a seated interview because you're noaing around someone's gaff.
I thought it was terrible! We keep hearing this mantra that he is a good campaigner but that was dreadful. It just reinforces the impression of people like me, he has nothing to offer but crass buffoonery. He does not seem to acknowledge the chaos he has created and more to the point does not offer a realistic program. It is no good going on about Corbyn when your own program is as bad?
Personally, I am inching away from voting LD and just going to go to Labour! Corbyn can be no worse than BJ....
Oh yes he can! (well, we are nearing the pantomime season)
I assume this is it, (Conservative broadcast) defiantly could be worse.
Might be seen as trivialising things, but probably not going to put people off.
Is it funny enough to be shard a lot on Facebook and other social media, probably not.
Do I expect it to be parodied a lot in next for days, maybe?
It's pretty cheesy in its 'let's pretend we're actually just having a random chat with Boris while he grabs a cup of tea' style, but in fairness for the most part it was delivered as naturally as it could be. Parodies of it could well be very funny indeed. 6/10, slightly more memorable than most, not cringingly effusive, but bland in content and phony.
I think it's meant to look staged and odd, that's part of the 'charm' they are going for
I know I go on about this, but to return to my regular theme of what a total piece of crap the FTPA is, I present this article from last week's Newstatesman:
"Prudence, historically the cardinal constitutional virtue, would still create an obligation for governments eschewing a referendum to allow for a general election before legislating for constitutional change.
In taking away the prerogative power to dissolve parliament, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act makes such caution impossible without co-operation from the opposition."
Quietly devastating I think.
This is total bollocks, if a government has a majority and the time to make a constitutional change that it wants then it's not going to call an election before it does it, FTPA or not.
She argues that Dicey says they should. There are cases where that hasn't happened of course.
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to go
Talks of landslides unnerve me and maybe you a little bit
Farage's move looks like a huge moment but until the results are revealed I intend keeping my feet on the ground.
That old expression 'once bitten, twice shy' comes very much to mind
The difference is Boris is ruthless, charismatic and can campaign unlike poor Theresa and will not do gaffes like the Dementia Tax
Agreed, Boris’s gaffes will be completely different, but no less damaging. He is certainly ruthless.
They won't be as he will promise tax cuts and more spending not tax rises and spending cuts and with delivering Brexit on top that is all that matters to swing voters
"...tax cuts and more spending..."
Whatever happened to sound financial management?
Unemployment is half 2010 levels and the deficit is down but a populist campaign is needed to win, more 2017 pain will lose
It's sad that lying to the electorate is considered a sensible strategy.
Politicians tell lies because that's what the electorate wants to hear. Politicians who told the truth - e.g. that if you want a Scandinavian system of social welfare then you, personally are all going to have to stump up shitloads more in tax to make it sustainable - would be even less successful than Change (Your Name Weekly) UK. See also the dementia tax furore.
I assume this is it, (Conservative broadcast) defiantly could be worse.
Might be seen as trivialising things, but probably not going to put people off.
Is it funny enough to be shard a lot on Facebook and other social media, probably not.
Do I expect it to be parodied a lot in next for days, maybe?
It's pretty cheesy in its 'let's pretend we're actually just having a random chat with Boris while he grabs a cup of tea' style, but in fairness for the most part it was delivered as naturally as it could be. Parodies of it could well be very funny indeed. 6/10, slightly more memorable than most, not cringingly effusive, but bland in content and phony.
I think it's meant to look staged and odd, that's part of the 'charm' they are going for
Oh I don't doubt they would not claim it really was just a random chat sort of thing, obviously they know and we know it is staged, hence my calling it cheesy rather than fake - the latter would be more like acting like it is totally organic, and it not being so.
Not that I would expect the powers that be at PB Towers to run the numbers, I thought it would be a bit of fun, as Peter Snow was apt to say, to Baxterise YouGov's latest poll findings as follows:
Con .......... 411 Labour ..... 164 LibDem ...... 19 (or almost 4 London Taxis Full in MartinDay-speak) Brexit .......... 0 Green .......... 1 SNP ........... 35 Plaid C ........ 2 N.I. ........... 18
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
I assume this is it, (Conservative broadcast) defiantly could be worse.
Might be seen as trivialising things, but probably not going to put people off.
Is it funny enough to be shard a lot on Facebook and other social media, probably not.
Do I expect it to be parodied a lot in next for days, maybe?
It's pretty cheesy in its 'let's pretend we're actually just having a random chat with Boris while he grabs a cup of tea' style, but in fairness for the most part it was delivered as naturally as it could be. Parodies of it could well be very funny indeed. 6/10, slightly more memorable than most, not cringingly effusive, but bland in content and phony.
I think it's meant to look staged and odd, that's part of the 'charm' they are going for
Oh I don't doubt they would not claim it really was just a random chat sort of thing, obviously they know and we know it is staged, hence my calling it cheesy rather than fake - the latter would be more like acting like it is totally organic, and it not being so.
I enjoyed his assertion that we are having the election to get a new government, before quickly correcting himself.
On the STV news at 6pm they showed the 4 main party leaders out on the stump. Richard Leonard the SLAB leader was shown ringing a doorbell and when answered the occupant looked at him and said "Labour no chance" and slammed the door shut. That may just sum up SLABs chances on 12th December.
If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.
If they end up having the slightest influence on the next government, what exactly do you think they will do?
Comments
I assume it's caused by rationing in their youth - they prefer to be treated mean.
Obviously you didn't get Big and establish NorthWales as a fiefdom overnight, but you nonetheless surprise me
I agree the idea they genuinely are trying to suggest it will not happen is more likely, but for now at least there's just enough signs which can be argued to give hope or fear as needed.
Con 1/2
Lab 3/1
LD (now defunct?) 10/1
Bxp 200/1
Have I said that before on here?
Whether they do replace him, and what kind of reaction in the party there is to him doing so will be very interested.
Honestly, Lib Dems, you hadyour once in a generation chance to overtake Labour, be the sane alternative to the Conservatives, and you've pissed it up the wall.
Extra votes where you don’t really need them?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/12/liberal-democrat-candidate-labour-brexit
The lack of an experienced centre back has hurt our chances but we are also not looking like the team that won the championship last season. we look much more like the team that finished 14th the season before
I've worked for McDonald's. I doubt Starmer has done a day's hard work in his life.
https://twitter.com/guardianopinion/status/1194329898044641281
I assume this is it, (Conservative broadcast) defiantly could be worse.
Might be seen as trivialising things, but probably not going to put people off.
Is it funny enough to be shard a lot on Facebook and other social media, probably not.
Do I expect it to be parodied a lot in next for days, maybe?
Got the first Tory leaflet today - A3, about 75% has the air of a routine constituency newsletter- local people back Jeremy Hunt favouring clean air (seriously!), an X-ray machine has been saved, and suchlike. It only gets round to the election in the last half page, where it urges us to vote for Jeremy (er, Hunt).
We left Edinburgh in 1965 for North Wales but it will forever be in our hearts
Tories are in for a big shock like a reverse 1970....
Those who like Boris will probably like this; those who don't, won't.
Stop ramping labour 23-25 less than 180 seats. If you believe differently let’s see your buy on the spreads for labour seats, it’s obviously good value
And the slogans on the doors , it completely fell apart when Bozo uttered the words compassionate about the Tories.
Or have I bought LDs standing in less than 180 seats?!
Personally, I am inching away from voting LD and just going to go to Labour! Corbyn can be no worse than BJ....
I hope Corbyn retaliates with one with him literally in his allotment, going into the shed where it's revealed a solidarity meeting of a BAME Labour forum is being held for some reason, who all tell him how great Labour is.
I know I go on about this, but to return to my regular theme of what a total piece of crap the FTPA is, I present this article from last week's Newstatesman:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/10/fixed-term-parliaments-make-old-constitutional-conflict-around-brexit-even
"Prudence, historically the cardinal constitutional virtue, would still create an obligation for governments eschewing a referendum to allow for a general election before legislating for constitutional change.
In taking away the prerogative power to dissolve parliament, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act makes such caution impossible without co-operation from the opposition."
Quietly devastating I think.
It is certainly true that by and large the black community was very socially conservative on sexual orientation issues, and it took a long while for black gay men to be as visible as white or asian gay men. But it is now commonplace to see black gay men, so my suspicion is that their families, and hence that community, has moved a long way in the last two decades.
For me I wonder at whether formal remain alliances or informal remain alliances are most effective, or even whether unspoken remain alliances and relying on the public to tactically vote without seeming to push them one way or another is the best way to go.
If Canterbury starts a trend, then it looks like the LDs and Labour will be going for informal alliance as the way to go. A lot of those points might be true enough, but 'he does not seem to acknowledge the chaos he has created' strikes me as an odd criticism. Why on earth would he ever do that? What party leader would ever do that?
But 48 hours over 4 days isn't unusual round here.
Johnson reminds me of this sketch.
https://youtu.be/bwAioN2mtsA
Rayner and Pidcock know what they are doing**
* this may not be a factual statement
** ditto
Con .......... 411
Labour ..... 164
LibDem ...... 19 (or almost 4 London Taxis Full in MartinDay-speak)
Brexit .......... 0
Green .......... 1
SNP ........... 35
Plaid C ........ 2
N.I. ........... 18
Con Maj ...172