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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    You could always vote CON. We are nice really. We need the votes in London!

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited November 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TudorRose said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
    On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
    Certainly. And I believe that the Lib Dem candidate in Johnsons constituency pulled out yesterday for "personal reasons." Unofficial alliances at local level will obviously help the anti- Tory parties. Tactical voting will be more important than ever before in this election I think.
    At this rate the Brexit Party will have more candidates than the LibDems. And it won't help Jo's case to be in the debates because the number of candidates fielded will be one of the factors that will be considered in their legal action.
    That's not really true. The LibDems are standing down in about 20 seats in Great Britain. The Brexit Party is not standing in 300.
    I’d be mightily pissed if I were a Lib Dem voter in Canterbury. I’m only voting Lib Dem because I want neither Corbyn nor Johnson. If they start being Corbyn’s little helpers they can forget about my vote.
    There is a significant local angle here. Rosie Duffield, after Julian Brazier who acted like he owned the place, has been a breath of fresh air as a constituency MP. She also was in trouble with the local party for going on the anti-semitism demo, for which she got a lot of favourable press, and there was even a rumour she was going to the LibDems at one point. Local Lib Dem’s, and I am one (albeit sadly half a mile over the constituency boundary in Ashford) won’t feel too uncomfortable voting for her.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019
    There have always been unwritten anti Tory alliances, it’s called a target seat strategy. You put your resource and effort into where you can win and reduce your campaign to just the free post leaflet where you can’t. The lib dems, I would guess, are fighting 50/60 serious targets and 50/60 development seats. That’s what you do as a minor party who, maybe 18 months ago would be fighting a 20/20 election. Corbyn will produce a result for labour that is worse than Foot. There will be a modest Con majority and they will have to deliver on their promises. There is no need for for anybody to revel in the defeat or victory that hits other people’s views.
  • Evening all,

    I know I go on about this, but to return to my regular theme of what a total piece of crap the FTPA is, I present this article from last week's Newstatesman:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/10/fixed-term-parliaments-make-old-constitutional-conflict-around-brexit-even

    "Prudence, historically the cardinal constitutional virtue, would still create an obligation for governments eschewing a referendum to allow for a general election before legislating for constitutional change.

    In taking away the prerogative power to dissolve parliament, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act makes such caution impossible without co-operation from the opposition."


    Quietly devastating I think.

    This is total bollocks, if a government has a majority and the time to make a constitutional change that it wants then it's not going to call an election before it does it, FTPA or not.
    She argues that Dicey says they should. There are cases where that hasn't happened of course.
    They never have and never will, if they don't care much they'll stick the thing in their manifesto and leave it to the next term, but there's no constitutional issue that suddenly arises and the government will put ahead of every other issue they're working on.

    And in any case a government with a majority can get its election, the only thing the FTPA stops is minority PMs playing silly buggers to screw their coalition partners (or in this last case, to prevent parliament from sitting and blocking No Deal).

    The only problem with the FTPA is that it doesn't do what it says on the tin, they should have called it the Prime Ministerial Election Shenanigans Prevention Act.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Not that I would expect the powers that be at PB Towers to run the numbers, I thought it would be a bit of fun, as Peter Snow was apt to say, to Baxterise YouGov's latest poll findings as follows:

    Con .......... 411
    Labour ..... 164
    LibDem ...... 19 (or almost 4 London Taxis Full in MartinDay-speak)
    Brexit .......... 0
    Green .......... 1
    SNP ........... 35
    Plaid C ........ 2
    N.I. ........... 18

    Con Maj ...172

    200+ Con majority.

    That'd Get Brexit Done! :D
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Seeing that same still-frame of Boris in a lot of the posts above, I'm struck by how profoundly unattractive he is (to my eyes, obviously this is highly subjective). It got me thinking about the attractiveness or otherwise of the main-two party leaders of my lifetime.

    Trying to adjust somewhat for age, here's my definitive and highly judgemental list:

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Tony Blair
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something"
    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Ed Miliband

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Ave_it said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    You could always vote CON. We are nice really. We need the votes in London!

    Nice is what you are not and never have been. Successful, ruthless and focused yes but nice?
  • Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    It is a tricky election for anyone who wants to stop both Brexit and Corbyn.
    As far as Brexit and Canterbury are concerned it's probably better to have a Labour MP than a Tory one - although I know nothing about the candidates.
    I don't think Jo Swinson would support anyone in a coalition or C&S because of the individuals involved and because of the LibDems experience in 2015.
  • Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
  • Noo said:

    Seeing that same still-frame of Boris in a lot of the posts above, I'm struck by how profoundly unattractive he is (to my eyes, obviously this is highly subjective). It got me thinking about the attractiveness or otherwise of the main-two party leaders of my lifetime.

    Trying to adjust somewhat for age, here's my definitive and highly judgemental list:

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Tony Blair
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something"
    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Ed Miliband

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Genuine LOL.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Seeing that same still-frame of Boris in a lot of the posts above, I'm struck by how profoundly unattractive he is (to my eyes, obviously this is highly subjective). It got me thinking about the attractiveness or otherwise of the main-two party leaders of my lifetime.

    Trying to adjust somewhat for age, here's my definitive and highly judgemental list:

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Tony Blair
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something"
    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Ed Miliband

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Genuine LOL.
    I could try to claim that I'm thinking about how appearances will play with the voters and put a betting angle on it, but in truth I'm just being a bitch.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    On the STV news at 6pm they showed the 4 main party leaders out on the stump. Richard Leonard the SLAB leader was shown ringing a doorbell and when answered the occupant looked at him and said "Labour no chance" and slammed the door shut. That may just sum up SLABs chances on 12th December.

    We can but hope.
    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    I'm undecided on this. I'm still planning on voting for them despite the fact that I suspect they'd support Kim Jong-Un as Prime Minister if he promised a second referendum. But I'd at least like to be able to accuse them of duplicity after an election if they ended up enabling Corbyn, rather than having my nose rubbed in it beforehand.

    Also, presumably due to nativity plays or other similar things, our polling station has been shunted from the primary school to the golf club, which is about as far away from us in the ward as it is possible to get. We are not amused.
  • Kikki
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Seeing that same still-frame of Boris in a lot of the posts above, I'm struck by how profoundly unattractive he is (to my eyes, obviously this is highly subjective). It got me thinking about the attractiveness or otherwise of the main-two party leaders of my lifetime.

    Trying to adjust somewhat for age, here's my definitive and highly judgemental list:

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Tony Blair
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something"
    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Ed Miliband

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Genuine LOL.
    I could try to claim that I'm thinking about how appearances will play with the voters and put a betting angle on it, but in truth I'm just being a bitch.
    Oh you are awful, but I like you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    First, I don’t think there is AFW they would prop up Corbyn, even if circumstances were to allow them that choice.
    Second, it’s looking increasingly likely there will be a Tory majority.

    Taking those two together makes a Lib Dem vote a very easy decision indeed for me.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Seeing that same still-frame of Boris in a lot of the posts above, I'm struck by how profoundly unattractive he is (to my eyes, obviously this is highly subjective). It got me thinking about the attractiveness or otherwise of the main-two party leaders of my lifetime.

    Trying to adjust somewhat for age, here's my definitive and highly judgemental list:

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Tony Blair
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something"
    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Ed Miliband

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Genuine LOL.
    I could try to claim that I'm thinking about how appearances will play with the voters and put a betting angle on it, but in truth I'm just being a bitch.
    Foot and Thatcher rank lowest to my eye. You seem to be harsh on Boris and Callaghan.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    maaarsh said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    If they end up having the slightest influence on the next government, what exactly do you think they will do?
    I’ve no idea. I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. The Lib Dems seem to me to be the least worst option but not if they support Corbyn in any way.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Ave_it said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    You could always vote CON. We are nice really. We need the votes in London!

    Sorry. No. The Tories have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    He is my largest green.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    DougSeal said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TudorRose said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Ooh, that's pretty significant actually. And could bode ill for the LD vote share generally if, despite lack of inclusion in the Remain alliance, their potential voters will act like there's one anyway and, like this candidate, back Labour.
    On the contrary, such a unilateral move may well encourage Lab voters to reciprocate in LD target seats.
    Certainly. And I believe that the Lib Dem candidate in Johnsons constituency pulled out yesterday for "personal reasons." Unofficial alliances at local level will obviously help the anti- Tory parties. Tactical voting will be more important than ever before in this election I think.
    At this rate the Brexit Party will have more candidates than the LibDems. And it won't help Jo's case to be in the debates because the number of candidates fielded will be one of the factors that will be considered in their legal action.
    That's not really true. The LibDems are standing down in about 20 seats in Great Britain. The Brexit Party is not standing in 300.
    I’d be mightily pissed if I were a Lib Dem voter in Canterbury. I’m only voting Lib Dem because I want neither Corbyn nor Johnson. If they start being Corbyn’s little helpers they can forget about my vote.
    There is a significant local angle here. Rosie Duffield, after Julian Brazier who acted like he owned the place, has been a breath of fresh air as a constituency MP. She also was in trouble with the local party for going on the anti-semitism demo, for which she got a lot of favourable press, and there was even a rumour she was going to the LibDems at one point. Local Lib Dem’s, and I am one (albeit sadly half a mile over the constituency boundary in Ashford) won’t feel too uncomfortable voting for her.
    Yes, yes, all very commendable no doubt. But a vote for a Labour MP is a vote for Corbyn as PM. That is a step too far for me.

    I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    I could say much the same about Johnson.

    I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.

    I loathe the Clown. I want them both to lose and never be heard of again.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Perhaps he will be more careful with booking his expenses.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50396788
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,717
    edited November 2019
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Seeing that same still-frame of Boris in a lot of the posts above, I'm struck by how profoundly unattractive he is (to my eyes, obviously this is highly subjective). It got me thinking about the attractiveness or otherwise of the main-two party leaders of my lifetime.

    Trying to adjust somewhat for age, here's my definitive and highly judgemental list:

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Tony Blair
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something"
    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Ed Miliband

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Genuine LOL.
    I could try to claim that I'm thinking about how appearances will play with the voters and put a betting angle on it, but in truth I'm just being a bitch.
    Hague and Howard in the attractive category?? (Not that I would put Blair or Cameron there either...)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    They had my vote until this crap. Back to Boris for me.
  • felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    They had my vote until this crap. Back to Boris for me.
    The LibDems are running candidates. If the PPCin Canterbury doesn't want the gig another will be appointed. They still have until midday Thursday to get 10 signatures on a nomination form and get it submitted.

    There is no stand down for Labour
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    edited November 2019
    nichomar said:

    There have always been unwritten anti Tory alliances, it’s called a target seat strategy. You put your resource and effort into where you can win and reduce your campaign to just the free post leaflet where you can’t. The lib dems, I would guess, are fighting 50/60 serious targets and 50/60 development seats. That’s what you do as a minor party who, maybe 18 months ago would be fighting a 20/20 election. Corbyn will produce a result for labour that is worse than Foot. There will be a modest Con majority and they will have to deliver on their promises. There is no need for for anybody to revel in the defeat or victory that hits other people’s views.

    1983 saw a Tory majority of 140 = hardly 'modest'! Her vote share dropped compared to 1979, i.e. without the Falklands War and the SDP-induced split vote she might have been a one-term PM like Heath. If only ...

    However, Heath actually did something useful and statesmanlike in his brief term of office, i.e. he took us into the EEC.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    They had my vote until this crap. Back to Boris for me.
    The LibDems are running candidates. If the PPCin Canterbury doesn't want the gig another will be appointed. They still have until midday Thursday to get 10 signatures on a nomination form and get it submitted.

    There is no stand down for Labour
    Are you not concerned at how many voters will make the same calculation as the PPC in Canterbury, even if the LDs do stand everywhere?
This discussion has been closed.