Interesting stats in the Survation poll. Highlights:
* The lead is actually 5.5% (rounding to 6) * Certainty to vote declines in proportion to income - maybe not surprising, but worth noting. * Labour has a huge lead (10-16 points) among highly-educated people (levels 3-4) but is miles behind by a 2-1 margin among people with few or no qualifications.The archetypal Labour voter is a highly-educated person on a low income (yes, teachers and lecturers). * Georgraphical subsample fans will find the SNP rampant in Scotland and terrible Labour polling, but Labour doing very well in the Midlands.
It’s strange seeing some Tory supporters in here go into a blind panic over one poll.
I can’t see Bozo making the errors that May did and I’m sure the manifesto will be one which has nothing controversial.
Unless the Tories do something really stupid it’s their election to lose. I’d love to see the back of the Tories but my head says they’ll get a decent majority .
The problem is that a lot of voters the Tories need are, frankly, self-indulgent and easily distracted. Tory Remainers say, "Ooh, I'm not sure about this thing with Nigel, maybe I'll go Lib Dem instead". BXP voters say "Ooh, I want Brexit, so BXP must be the best way to get it, never mind what the polls say".
Meanwhile LAB voters just go "Ooh, trillions of free stuff from Corbyn? Then it's Labour all the way!"
Voting Labour is visceral - it’s all about identity and loyalty to your heritage. Policy doesn’t really feature.
That’s why it’s such a catastrophe that Corbyn has captured the party.
Interesting stats in the Survation poll. Highlights:
* The lead is actually 5.5% (rounding to 6) * Certainty to vote declines in proportion to income - maybe not surprising, but worth noting. * Labour has a huge lead (10-16 points) among highly-educated people (levels 3-4) but is miles behind by a 2-1 margin among people with few or no qualifications.The archetypal Labour voter is a highly-educated person on a low income (yes, teachers and lecturers). * Georgraphical subsample fans will find the SNP rampant in Scotland and terrible Labour polling, but Labour doing very well in the Midlands.
There are a few areas where Labour could gain further if they can increase the intention to vote amongst their supporters . also the 18 to 34 age group voter intention in terms of certain to vote 45% , compared to the over 65s who are over 80% .
Younger people need to get off their arses and take back control ! from the over 65s who having inflicted Brexit on them and are also likely to inflict Bozo aswell .
It’s strange seeing some Tory supporters in here go into a blind panic over one poll.
I can’t see Bozo making the errors that May did and I’m sure the manifesto will be one which has nothing controversial.
Unless the Tories do something really stupid it’s their election to lose. I’d love to see the back of the Tories but my head says they’ll get a decent majority .
I agree to some extent. A 6 point lead might just be enough for a small majority anyway.
The fact is that the Tories have lost confidence since the 2017 campaign and they go into a doom spiral, which doesn’t actually help them at all. They need to focus and run a better campaign. The fundamentals are still pretty good for them.
Why is there always reference to Labour robots when there are surely more tory robots in the country. In 1997 after 18 years of tory government, full of sleaze etc, and with a centrist shiny new opposition leader, the tories still polled 30%. Even at a time when the Tories could not have done more to lose an election they still got 30%
Is that not a 30% robot population? Labour got 28% in 1983, their worst modern era result, so fewer Labour robots.
C - cantankerous O - old R - ratbag B - burns Y - your N - neighbourhood
For all the reputation we have as being educated and intelligent, us Jews are fxxking stupid. We get screwed time and time again but keep convincing ourselves that this time is different. We learn about all the things that happened to our ancestors and think "How did they let this happen? Why did they stay in such a country? Wasn't it obvious the society was so intolerant?" Then we go back to our own lives and think "Of course this doesn't apply here. We are safe in this country. We are integrated and our neighbours have our backs. They value us as human beings. They will stand up for us if the time ever comes."
Al-Andalus, Poland, Algeria, Russia, Germany, Turkey. It took the Holocaust to make us realise we needed our own state and even after that we still get fooled again. No-one gives a damn about us. We are always a second priority when people need to be counted.
Why is there always reference to Labour robots when there are surely more tory robots in the country. In 1997 after 18 years of tory government, full of sleaze etc, and with a centrist shiny new opposition leader, the tories still polled 30%. Even at a time when the Tories could not have done more to lose an election they still got 30%
Is that not a 30% robot population? Labour got 28% in 1983, their worst modern era result, so fewer Labour robots.
We are in for a bizarre and tortured 4 weeks. In the space of 24 hours we've had labour winning here and sky wondering if labour will lose Wigan. Those two positions are utterly incompatible
Voting Labour is visceral - it’s all about identity and loyalty to your heritage. Policy doesn’t really feature.
That’s why it’s such a catastrophe that Corbyn has captured the party.
What about all the affluent metropolitan liberals? People like me and Melvyn Bragg?
You reckon we don't really care what Labour's policies are?
Yes, you seem comfortable with supporting an extremist who wants to set classes against each other, threatens the absolute fundamentals of our national security and would take a scorched-earth approach to our economy, destroying any wealth and property that didn’t escape out the door first.
I’ve made my views on your support of that and desire to campaign for it very clear.
An afternoon of leafleting and random door-knocks in rural Totnes.
Weird. Those that were in were solidly blue.
Corbyn still toxic. Found straight Labour to Tory switchers, citing him as the reason.
Nobody with a good word for Dr. Sarah.
It's either
a ) going really well or
b ) I'm getting the weirdest, most distorted distribution patterns......
Do you think those switchers would call themselves 'labour' voters if canvassed by a pollster?
They said they'd always been Labour. Until now. Quite like Boris. Can't stand Corbyn.
Getting the distinct impression talking to various of these anti-Corbyn were-Labour voters that it doesn't really matter what policies Labour comes up with in their manifesto - Corbyn means they won't listen.
C - cantankerous O - old R - ratbag B - burns Y - your N - neighbourhood
For all the reputation we have as being educated and intelligent, us Jews are fxxking stupid. We get screwed time and time again but keep convincing ourselves that this time is different. We learn about all the things that happened to our ancestors and think "How did they let this happen? Why did they stay in such a country? Wasn't it obvious the society was so intolerant?" Then we go back to our own lives and think "Of course this doesn't apply here. We are safe in this country. We are integrated and our neighbours have our backs. They value us as human beings. They will stand up for us if the time ever comes."
Al-Andalus, Poland, Algeria, Russia, Germany, Turkey. It took the Holocaust to make us realise we needed our own state and even after that we still get fooled again. No-one gives a damn about us. We are always a second priority when people need to be counted.
Jews are safe in Britain. HTH.
I don't believe that any more. If a third of the country is willing to repeatedly vote for a man that commemorates Jew killers, why should we expect them to risk their personal safety when we face violence? There would be a handful of heros but the vast majority would make excuses for why they stand by, just as they do when they vote for Corbyn.
And it's the same with Trump in America and rising attacks in France and Germany. I used to mock my relatives for saying Israel was the only place we were safe. No more.
The thing with Corbyn is he’s in his element on the campaign trail . He also looks like he really does care about people when he’s out meeting the public . Images of Bozo attempting to use a mop in Yorkshire were vomit inducing , everything about him is contrived , empathy by numbers .
It’s strange seeing some Tory supporters in here go into a blind panic over one poll.
I can’t see Bozo making the errors that May did and I’m sure the manifesto will be one which has nothing controversial.
Unless the Tories do something really stupid it’s their election to lose. I’d love to see the back of the Tories but my head says they’ll get a decent majority .
The problem is that a lot of voters the Tories need are, frankly, self-indulgent and easily distracted. Tory Remainers say, "Ooh, I'm not sure about this thing with Nigel, maybe I'll go Lib Dem instead". BXP voters say "Ooh, I want Brexit, so BXP must be the best way to get it, never mind what the polls say".
Meanwhile LAB voters just go "Ooh, trillions of free stuff from Corbyn? Then it's Labour all the way!"
Voting Labour is visceral - it’s all about identity and loyalty to your heritage. Policy doesn’t really feature.
That’s why it’s such a catastrophe that Corbyn has captured the party.
If you're right the Tories won't gain many Labour seats.
We are one step away from a full blown disaster until either mainstream social democrats regain control of the LP (top to bottom) or the LDEMs become the main opposition to the Tories. No wonder centrists (left and right) are nervous!
The thing with Corbyn is he’s in his element on the campaign trail . He also looks like he really does care about people when he’s out meeting the public . Images of Bozo attempting to use a mop in Yorkshire were vomit inducing , everything about him is contrived , empathy by numbers .
Corbo's one quality as leader is that he is a superb campaigner. He has nothing else going for him. But, it's something.
The thing with Corbyn is he’s in his element on the campaign trail . He also looks like he really does care about people when he’s out meeting the public . Images of Bozo attempting to use a mop in Yorkshire were vomit inducing , everything about him is contrived , empathy by numbers .
One of the things I find fascinating about politics is how we all react differently to the same images. Here in my little bubble people smiled and laughed at Boris being inept with a broom, and warmed to him even more.
Voting Labour is visceral - it’s all about identity and loyalty to your heritage. Policy doesn’t really feature.
That’s why it’s such a catastrophe that Corbyn has captured the party.
What about all the affluent metropolitan liberals? People like me and Melvyn Bragg?
You reckon we don't really care what Labour's policies are?
Yes, you seem comfortable with supporting an extremist who wants to set classes against each other, threatens the absolute fundamentals of our national security and would take a scorched-earth approach to our economy, destroying any wealth and property that didn’t escape out the door first.
I’ve made my views on your support of that and desire to campaign for it very clear.
He must be quaking in his boots. Your diatribe there might equally apply to your support for the Conservative Party (as it is incorrectly labelled), the leadership of which wish to set approximately 52% of the population against 48%, or at least ride roughshod against the latter; threaten our international credibility and security through Brexit and take a scorched-earth approach to our international agreements and commitments, destroying a huge number of businesses and jobs in the name of a madness called Brexit.
From my perspective, Corbyn is an even worse prospect than the Tories, but those on the right need to recognise that Boris Johnson has trashed the Conservative Party's reputation for economics and business, and so attacks on Comrade Corbyn are significantly reduced, which is why it remains my belief that it will be another hung parliament.
The problem is that a lot of voters the Tories need are, frankly, self-indulgent and easily distracted. Tory Remainers say, "Ooh, I'm not sure about this thing with Nigel, maybe I'll go Lib Dem instead". BXP voters say "Ooh, I want Brexit, so BXP must be the best way to get it, never mind what the polls say".
Meanwhile LAB voters just go "Ooh, trillions of free stuff from Corbyn? Then it's Labour all the way!"
Sounds like you want a quality electorate instead of this bunch.
I second that. It's something I have been arguing for a long time.
The thing with Corbyn is he’s in his element on the campaign trail . He also looks like he really does care about people when he’s out meeting the public . Images of Bozo attempting to use a mop in Yorkshire were vomit inducing , everything about him is contrived , empathy by numbers .
One of the things I find fascinating about politics is how we all react differently to the same images. Here in my little bubble people smiled and laughed at Boris being inept with a broom, and warmed to him even more.
You only have to see him joking with nurses or doing selfies to know he has 'it' with many people, but is anthrax to his haters. The broom thing was odd, in many ways cringey but also quite endearing. Hes our idiot, the same feelings people had when he waved the flag about at the Beijing games closing ceremony.
In the end it will be authenticity which will matter, who really cares about people and who is just presenting a contrived image. Authenticity mattered in 2017 and in my opinion it will matter again.
Johnson seems to be in reactive mode and he is easily manipulated by minders and vested interests.This reminds me of a school situation where over promotion of inadequate staff creates a power vacuum which leads to chaos in a few weeks or months.
nunu2 said: "Your in a safe Tory seat. Dr. Sarah is not going to win it."
So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?
Umunna has the best chance IMO followed by Gyimah. Wollaston will hopefully be toast because its a 2 way contest. The best Lib Dem gains of the above will be in 3 way marginals.
The thing with Corbyn is he’s in his element on the campaign trail . He also looks like he really does care about people when he’s out meeting the public . Images of Bozo attempting to use a mop in Yorkshire were vomit inducing , everything about him is contrived , empathy by numbers .
Corbo's one quality as leader is that he is a superb campaigner. He has nothing else going for him. But, it's something.
I think that is a myth. If he was a superb campaigner he would have won the last election. He simply didn't do as badly as everyone (himself included) thought he would. the same thing will probably happen this time, with Labour bouncing back when Labour supporters plus centrists revile at the thought of unfettered Brexit obsessed Tory majority.
The difference in all these polls is the tory figure. Labour are going to get 30 come what may. If the tories only get 35/36 they are in trouble, yougov thinks they will break 40 (which i just can't see).
In the end it will be authenticity which will matter, who really cares about people and who is just presenting a contrived image. Authenticity mattered in 2017 and in my opinion it will matter again.
Johnson seems to be in reactive mode and he is easily manipulated by minders and vested interests.This reminds me of a school situation where over promotion of inadequate staff creates a power vacuum which leads to chaos in a few weeks or months.
Being authentic is not necessarily a good thing if you are an authentic dullard with extreme tendencies that make you support terrorists and bankrupt the country. Those sort of authentic flavours are things people can probably live without. After all, I am sure Mao and Stalin were authentic in their own way.
Lot of churn in that yougov, my hunch would be without the BXP standing down that there has been a small shift in favour of the Labour party. Certainly Nigel's decision has helped stem this flow. All logic tells us the Tories should be polling above 40% everywhere now, I expect most other polls to follow Yougov but also show a continued uptick for Labour into the low 30s.
"So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?"
Brom said: "Umunna has the best chance IMO followed by Gyimah. Wollaston will hopefully be toast because its a 2 way contest. The best Lib Dem gains of the above will be in 3 way marginal"
I tend to agree with you - and given that Umunna is best priced 6/4 to win there must be a decent chance that they will all fail.
The problem now poll wise is without the BP in 317 Tory seats , how much does that add to majorities they already hold , does that inflate their poll numbers but hide what’s going on elsewhere .
Lot of churn in that yougov, my hunch would be without the BXP standing down that there has been a small shift in favour of the Labour party. Certainly Nigel's decision has helped stem this flow. All logic tells us the Tories should be polling above 40% everywhere now, I expect most other polls to follow Yougov but also show a continued uptick for Labour into the low 30s.
No, on old methodology its 39 26 as before with LD and BXP down 1 each
"So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?"
MarquessMark said: "All fail."
What about the three Change UK bods: Soubry, Leslie and Gapes? I reckon the`re toast as well.
"So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?"
MarquessMark said: "All fail."
What about the three Change UK bods: Soubry, Leslie and Gapes? I reckon the`re toast as well.
The problem now poll wise is without the BP in 317 Tory seats , how much does that add to majorities they already hold , does that inflate their poll numbers but hide what’s going on elsewhere .
Most people probably don't know whether BXP are standing in their seat.
The problem now poll wise is without the BP in 317 Tory seats , how much does that add to majorities they already hold , does that inflate their poll numbers but hide what’s going on elsewhere .
Most people probably don't know whether BXP are standing in their seat.
I imagine a lot of their supporters will be looking for Nigel Farage's name on the ballot paper on the day, or possibly a swastika emblem.
nunu2 said: "Your in a safe Tory seat. Dr. Sarah is not going to win it."
So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?
Umunna has the best chance IMO followed by Gyimah. Wollaston will hopefully be toast because its a 2 way contest. The best Lib Dem gains of the above will be in 3 way marginals.
Nigel_Foremain said: "I imagine a lot of their supporters will be looking for Nigel Farage's name on the ballot paper on the day, or possibly a swastika emblem."
UKIP has an opportunity here. If they compete in the GE I can see TBP supporters ticking UKIP when they fail to find The Brexit Party on the ballot.
"So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?"
MarquessMark said: "All fail."
What about the three Change UK bods: Soubry, Leslie and Gapes? I reckon the`re toast as well.
Change UK is still a thing?
2 threw in the towel but the 3 musketeers fight on. As does Shuker but as a full indy
The problem now poll wise is without the BP in 317 Tory seats , how much does that add to majorities they already hold , does that inflate their poll numbers but hide what’s going on elsewhere .
Most people probably don't know whether BXP are standing in their seat.
I think what they’ve done is remove the BP option for the portion of the panel who live in those Tory held seats so they aren’t allowed that option .
I suspect Farage's action yesterday virtually finished TBP's relevance in this GE
The talk today is all about Farage caving in to Boris and supporting all the conservative candidates in their previous seats
Voters do not follow the intensity of all this and most certainly will assume Farage supports Boris and the conservatives and the most of the TBP votes probably will just follow Boris
nunu2 said: "Your in a safe Tory seat. Dr. Sarah is not going to win it."
So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?
Umunna has the best chance IMO followed by Gyimah. Wollaston will hopefully be toast because its a 2 way contest. The best Lib Dem gains of the above will be in 3 way marginals.
"So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?"
MarquessMark said: "All fail."
What about the three Change UK bods: Soubry, Leslie and Gapes? I reckon the`re toast as well.
I have not checked the Odds, but I would have thought that the most likely defector/independent MP to keep their seat would be Frank Field in Birkenhead.
1) Well known having been MP for 40 years, 2) Left labour over a year ago and announced his plans, so time to prepare. 3) no confusing the issues by becoming a deferent group/party's Candidate. 4) His Brexit position is in line with his constituency 5) Popular enough with the Cons that he will probably get a lot of tactical votes
"So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?"
MarquessMark said: "All fail."
What about the three Change UK bods: Soubry, Leslie and Gapes? I reckon the`re toast as well.
This is looking like a squeeze election again to me..... Not great for minor parties.
Yes, you seem comfortable with supporting an extremist who wants to set classes against each other, threatens the absolute fundamentals of our national security and would take a scorched-earth approach to our economy, destroying any wealth and property that didn’t escape out the door first.
I’ve made my views on your support of that and desire to campaign for it very clear.
But I like the policies, is the point. Most of them anyway. Your description is merely a projection of your deeply subjective opinion that they will be disastrous. You said it's all "tribal". That is nonsense. It's about the policies.
I can prove it to you.
Imagine Labour were offering big tax and spending cuts, NHS privatization and tight limits on immigration, and the Cons were offering increased tax & spend, more open borders and nationalization of the utilities.
dyedwoolie said: "2 threw in the towel but the 3 musketeers fight on. As does Shuker but as a full indy"
I forgot about Gavin Shuker.
Makes Luton South an interesting betting proposition. Lib Dems not standing, but they have small presence anyway. Can`t see any odds on this constituency yet.
"So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?"
MarquessMark said: "All fail."
What about the three Change UK bods: Soubry, Leslie and Gapes? I reckon the`re toast as well.
I'd expect Chukka to get closest. Not much hope for the others. I'd like to see Berger do well in F&GG, but not so well that it's a CON loss, whether to her or to LAB through the middle.
I can't see there's any benefit for the Tories in making any sort of a deal with Farage. Aligning themselves with him in any way would potential disenchant some Europhile, but resigned to Brexit, Tory voters.
It's quite unfortunate that this is the case.
A tacit non-campaign in a handful of seats and not so much anti-Brexit-party rhetoric is about the best they can hope for in my view.
Politics becomes almost meaningless though when you realise that there are people walking around on our streets who intend to vote Labour.
No! That would look ridiculous. The Conservatives are the governing party, FFS. The most they can do, if they must, is simply not try very hard in certain seats.
We are one step away from a full blown disaster until either mainstream social democrats regain control of the LP (top to bottom) or the LDEMs become the main opposition to the Tories. No wonder centrists (left and right) are nervous!
There are loads of Labour seats where the Lib Dems have less chance of winning than the Tories.
If the Lib Dems become much stronger they will take seats from the Tories and Labour.
Yes, you seem comfortable with supporting an extremist who wants to set classes against each other, threatens the absolute fundamentals of our national security and would take a scorched-earth approach to our economy, destroying any wealth and property that didn’t escape out the door first.
I’ve made my views on your support of that and desire to campaign for it very clear.
But I like the policies, is the point. Most of them anyway. Your description is merely a projection of your deeply subjective opinion that they will be disastrous. You said it's all "tribal". That is nonsense. It's about the policies.
I can prove it to you.
Imagine Labour were offering big tax and spending cuts, NHS privatization and tight limits on immigration, and the Cons were offering increased tax & spend, more open borders and nationalization of the utilities.
I would vote Con. Of course I would.
Policies.
See?
It is easy to like policies with no heed to cost and after todays freebies on education labour look like they are starting into their next 1.2 trillion
Comments
Liking the 1 in 100 Tory Leave voters who prefer Jonny Mac on the economy.
* The lead is actually 5.5% (rounding to 6)
* Certainty to vote declines in proportion to income - maybe not surprising, but worth noting.
* Labour has a huge lead (10-16 points) among highly-educated people (levels 3-4) but is miles behind by a 2-1 margin among people with few or no qualifications.The archetypal Labour voter is a highly-educated person on a low income (yes, teachers and lecturers).
* Georgraphical subsample fans will find the SNP rampant in Scotland and terrible Labour polling, but Labour doing very well in the Midlands.
cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/12123703/6th-8th-November-Survation-Voting-Intention.xlsx
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1194291483429482496?s=20
Weird. Those that were in were solidly blue.
Corbyn still toxic. Found straight Labour to Tory switchers, citing him as the reason.
Nobody with a good word for Dr. Sarah.
It's either
a ) going really well or
b ) I'm getting the weirdest, most distorted distribution patterns......
Younger people need to get off their arses and take back control ! from the over 65s who having inflicted Brexit on them and are also likely to inflict Bozo aswell .
The fact is that the Tories have lost confidence since the 2017 campaign and they go into a doom spiral, which doesn’t actually help them at all. They need to focus and run a better campaign. The fundamentals are still pretty good for them.
You reckon we don't really care what Labour's policies are?
Is that not a 30% robot population? Labour got 28% in 1983, their worst modern era result, so fewer Labour robots.
How can it be right for a party which is contesting a GE to fail to produce a manifesto?
I’ve made my views on your support of that and desire to campaign for it very clear.
You`re kidding me - my parents live only a few miles from Totnes and it always chucking it down when I visit.
Striking to me how unaffected and natural he seemed - bright orange head wear and all.
"Boris" doing something similar would have had a clowny and facetious vibe.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/election-priorities-best-pm-preferred-government-trust-on-the-economy-best-party-on-brexit-introducing-my-general-election-dashboard/#more-16190
Getting the distinct impression talking to various of these anti-Corbyn were-Labour voters that it doesn't really matter what policies Labour comes up with in their manifesto - Corbyn means they won't listen.
It’s no wonder the USA rejected her in 2016.
I’d prefer Emily Thornberry as PM to her.
Hmm - I wonder who Bragg votes for ..... TBP?
And it's the same with Trump in America and rising attacks in France and Germany. I used to mock my relatives for saying Israel was the only place we were safe. No more.
Although David Herdson did detect a famous last minute change last time.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1194299905159974914
From my perspective, Corbyn is an even worse prospect than the Tories, but those on the right need to recognise that Boris Johnson has trashed the Conservative Party's reputation for economics and business, and so attacks on Comrade Corbyn are significantly reduced, which is why it remains my belief that it will be another hung parliament.
So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?
I second that. It's something I have been arguing for a long time.
Johnson seems to be in reactive mode and he is easily manipulated by minders and vested interests.This reminds me of a school situation where over promotion of inadequate staff creates a power vacuum which leads to chaos in a few weeks or months.
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
"Yougov more effective than beta blockers for skittish tories"
Not surprised Tories are skittish given 2017 experience. Let`s see if they balls it up with their manifesto again.
The squeeze is on!
"So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?"
Brom said:
"Umunna has the best chance IMO followed by Gyimah. Wollaston will hopefully be toast because its a 2 way contest. The best Lib Dem gains of the above will be in 3 way marginal"
I tend to agree with you - and given that Umunna is best priced 6/4 to win there must be a decent chance that they will all fail.
Will save a lot of seats in the south
"So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?"
MarquessMark said: "All fail."
What about the three Change UK bods: Soubry, Leslie and Gapes? I reckon the`re toast as well.
UKIP has an opportunity here. If they compete in the GE I can see TBP supporters ticking UKIP when they fail to find The Brexit Party on the ballot.
The talk today is all about Farage caving in to Boris and supporting all the conservative candidates in their previous seats
Voters do not follow the intensity of all this and most certainly will assume Farage supports Boris and the conservatives and the most of the TBP votes probably will just follow Boris
1) Well known having been MP for 40 years,
2) Left labour over a year ago and announced his plans, so time to prepare.
3) no confusing the issues by becoming a deferent group/party's Candidate.
4) His Brexit position is in line with his constituency
5) Popular enough with the Cons that he will probably get a lot of tactical votes
Are the Brexit Party standing down for him?
I can prove it to you.
Imagine Labour were offering big tax and spending cuts, NHS privatization and tight limits on immigration, and the Cons were offering increased tax & spend, more open borders and nationalization of the utilities.
I would vote Con. Of course I would.
Policies.
See?
I forgot about Gavin Shuker.
Makes Luton South an interesting betting proposition. Lib Dems not standing, but they have small presence anyway. Can`t see any odds on this constituency yet.
It's quite unfortunate that this is the case.
A tacit non-campaign in a handful of seats and not so much anti-Brexit-party rhetoric is about the best they can hope for in my view.
Politics becomes almost meaningless though when you realise that there are people walking around on our streets who intend to vote Labour.
It’s possible that some BP voters ticked that option when they couldn’t find the BP .
BXP only party opposed to it not standing in seats that adversely affected.
If the Lib Dems become much stronger they will take seats from the Tories and Labour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50388879
The cost of these policies is insane