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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

What’s going to be key is being seen as the main option for tactical votes in key battlegrounds where the Tories are on the offensive, A problem is that a party that’s seen to be hemorrhaging support would find it harder to present itself as the tactical vote choice.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited November 2019
    "LAB seeing significant seepage amongst its GE2107 leavers"? Good grief, does Brexit last that long?
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    2nd like Labour (?)
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Does the fact that 22% are going BXP / UKIP not suggest that in certain seats Tories will not make the gains needed to flip the seat, and whilst Lab vote share may go down in many seats so will Con, and it won't be enough to push over the finish line?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Labour losing over a 5th of its Leave voters to the Brexit Party and 16% to the Tories will help the Tories in Labour Leave marginal seats.

    Labour holding more of its Remain vote which should help it in London and the inner cities and university areas like Canterbury but still 14% of Labour Remainers going LD will particularly benefit the LDs in central London Remain seats it is targeting
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Camel said: "Betting:

    Norfolk North was solid blue territory before Norman Lamb.

    Now he has quit, with all the known-name bonuses he has built up over 30 years as a PPC them an MP going with him, a 3.4% Lib->Con swing turns the constituency blue again.

    3-1 against this happening seems like value, especially as the area is known as much for its rural charm, retirees and brexitiness as it is for its excellent crabs."


    Problem is that TBP will be standing in that constituency. This may save Libdems in this seat?
  • jaichindjaichind Posts: 8
    7 % of 2017 LAB leaver vote will go to LDEM?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    148grss said:

    Does the fact that 22% are going BXP / UKIP not suggest that in certain seats Tories will not make the gains needed to flip the seat, and whilst Lab vote share may go down in many seats so will Con, and it won't be enough to push over the finish line?

    Depends what those voters choose to do when faced with the forced choice between Johnson and Corbyn.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    HYUFD: What`s your current prediction on number of CP seats?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    Labour holding onto only 57% of its 2017 Leaver voters while the Tories are holding onto 69% of their 2017 Remainer voters as the last thread showed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD: What`s your current prediction on number of CP seats?

    340 to 350
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Remain voters hold the balance. Do they prefer a referendum with Corbson or a hard Brexit with Borage? If it’s the former they need to vote tactically.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    It is only based on instinct, but my view is that Labour voters are very tribal, and what they say they will do on an opinion poll might be different to what they will actually do when they go into the polling booth, particularly if all the opinion polls look like returning a Tory majority
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Stocky said:

    "HYUFD: What`s your current prediction on number of CP seats?"

    HYUFD Said:

    "340 to 350"

    I thought you might be even more optimistic than that. Electoral Calculus have just revised their CP seat prediction from 363 to 382. Implies majority of 114!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Jonathan said:

    Remain voters hold the balance. Do they prefer a referendum with Corbson or a hard Brexit with Borage? If it’s the former they need to vote tactically.

    However much I would like Brexit to be mitigated, and Johnson and the Tory right punished, it does not extend to voting for a terrorist supporting anti-Semite. Corbyn will let Johnson off the hook
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Anyone think that Tories have a better chance than 3/1 (Betfair) in Lancaster & Fleetwood?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    Because to avoid a hard Brexit, Labour has to succeed.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sean T is watching icebergs.

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1194245024373977091
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1194245963398823937?s=21
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    That is not true. The bit about "clearly" is not true. And quite likely, Lord Farage will be telling everyone Labour is a "party of Remain".
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    Because Brexit isn't the only reason to vote for or against a party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    Stocky said:

    Camel said: "Betting:

    Norfolk North was solid blue territory before Norman Lamb.

    Now he has quit, with all the known-name bonuses he has built up over 30 years as a PPC them an MP going with him, a 3.4% Lib->Con swing turns the constituency blue again.

    3-1 against this happening seems like value, especially as the area is known as much for its rural charm, retirees and brexitiness as it is for its excellent crabs."


    Problem is that TBP will be standing in that constituency. This may save Libdems in this seat?

    I think that there is a strong LD representation on the council there. There is more to politics than Brexit, even on the East coast.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Fighting talk from IDS with regard to Farage: "This is a game of two halves — we’ve had the first half and now we’re going to have the second half."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    jaichind said:

    7 % of 2017 LAB leaver vote will go to LDEM?

    Presumably those that regretted their 2016 vote, and want to kick BoZo harder than they did Dave!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127
    Jonathan said:

    "LAB seeing significant seepage...

    You can get a poultice for that.

    :)

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Stocky said:

    Camel said: "Betting:

    Norfolk North was solid blue territory before Norman Lamb.

    Now he has quit, with all the known-name bonuses he has built up over 30 years as a PPC them an MP going with him, a 3.4% Lib->Con swing turns the constituency blue again.

    3-1 against this happening seems like value, especially as the area is known as much for its rural charm, retirees and brexitiness as it is for its excellent crabs."


    Problem is that TBP will be standing in that constituency. This may save Libdems in this seat?

    And, nationally, there is a swing from Con to LD. You can knock off a few pp for the loss of an incumbent, but it's nowhere near enough on current national polling.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    That is not true. The bit about "clearly" is not true. And quite likely, Lord Farage will be telling everyone Labour is a "party of Remain".
    They are led (I use that word advisedly) by a man, who is not only cretinous in virtually every other way, he is also anti-EU. Anyone who wants the UK to remain in the EU should not vote for Labour while they have Mr. Thicky as their leader.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Surely if Russia really wanted to know anything about the Labour party, they just need to phone up one of their former presenters / guests on RT to get the info from them?
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Does Starmer want burgers to cost more, or for robots to flip them?
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1194204454448500738?s=20
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    On a different topic - stock market often sees a rise just before Xmas - often referred to as the "Santa Rally". Couple that with a probable Tory majority at the GE, and end in sight for Brexit (at least this stage of the process) and you have a recipe for a strong end to the stock market year.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Surely if Russia really wanted to know anything about the Labour party, they just need to phone up one of their former presenters / guests on RT to get the info from them?

    Plenty of people from lots of parties have appeared on RT. Conservatives, Brexkip, SNP all share Labour's shame in driving audience towards the Kremlin's mouthpiece.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    That is not true. The bit about "clearly" is not true. And quite likely, Lord Farage will be telling everyone Labour is a "party of Remain".
    They are led (I use that word advisedly) by a man, who is not only cretinous in virtually every other way, he is also anti-EU. Anyone who wants the UK to remain in the EU should not vote for Labour while they have Mr. Thicky as their leader.
    Analysis not advocacy. The message from the Tory/Brexit press will be that you must vote Conservative to Get Brexit Done. The corollary is that Labour must be a Remain party. That will be the message from Boris and Nige.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TrèsDifficile said:

    Does Starmer want burgers to cost more, or for robots to flip them?
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1194204454448500738?s=20

    Are you saying that strikes lead to investment in innovation?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    That is not true. The bit about "clearly" is not true. And quite likely, Lord Farage will be telling everyone Labour is a "party of Remain".
    They are led (I use that word advisedly) by a man, who is not only cretinous in virtually every other way, he is also anti-EU. Anyone who wants the UK to remain in the EU should not vote for Labour while they have Mr. Thicky as their leader.
    Analysis not advocacy. The message from the Tory/Brexit press will be that you must vote Conservative to Get Brexit Done. The corollary is that Labour must be a Remain party. That will be the message from Boris and Nige.
    Labour are clearly not a party of Remain.

    That they are clearly not a party of Leave, either, is also true.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Put it another way, if you vote Labour thinking that they are standing on a remain platform and will seek to remain in the EU, then I've got some beans I wish to sell to you.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    My Dad voted Remain and has always voted Labour and will vote Labour. I think he has a mixture of reasons.
    1. He's not monomaniacally obsessed with Remain - whether we are in or out of the EU he would rather have a Labour government.
    2. Labour hold the constituency he lives in, he doesn't want to split the vote to allow the Tories to win.
    3. While Corbyn himself has equivocated the Labour party as a whole - its members and MPs - were clearly for Remain and he doesn't consider his vote in the general election as a vote cast in a Presidential election for the party leader, but for the local representative of a broad party.

    I'm voting for Revoke, and the Union between England and Scotland, but I don't think his position is absurd.

    I can't wait to hear what my step-mother thinks about the Unite for Remain pact directing her to vote Green instead of Lib Dem. I think she's going to be at least exasperated, but I have high hopes that she might reach livid.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    That is not true. The bit about "clearly" is not true. And quite likely, Lord Farage will be telling everyone Labour is a "party of Remain".
    They are led (I use that word advisedly) by a man, who is not only cretinous in virtually every other way, he is also anti-EU. Anyone who wants the UK to remain in the EU should not vote for Labour while they have Mr. Thicky as their leader.
    Analysis not advocacy. The message from the Tory/Brexit press will be that you must vote Conservative to Get Brexit Done. The corollary is that Labour must be a Remain party. That will be the message from Boris and Nige.
    Unfortunately for Labour, while Corbyn is leader that is not a corollary.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Jonathan said:

    Remain voters hold the balance. Do they prefer a referendum with Corbson or a hard Brexit with Borage? If it’s the former they need to vote tactically.

    However much I would like Brexit to be mitigated, and Johnson and the Tory right punished, it does not extend to voting for a terrorist supporting anti-Semite. Corbyn will let Johnson off the hook
    I don't see anyone that genuinely believes in decent liberal principles, rather than pretending to for social status, can vote Corbyn.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Stocky said:

    Fighting talk from IDS with regard to Farage: "This is a game of two halves — we’ve had the first half and now we’re going to have the second half."

    Only IDS could be thick enough to use "the game of two halves" cliché. Actually could imagine Corbyn using it too!
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Camel said: "Betting:

    Norfolk North was solid blue territory before Norman Lamb.

    Now he has quit, with all the known-name bonuses he has built up over 30 years as a PPC them an MP going with him, a 3.4% Lib->Con swing turns the constituency blue again.

    3-1 against this happening seems like value, especially as the area is known as much for its rural charm, retirees and brexitiness as it is for its excellent crabs."


    Problem is that TBP will be standing in that constituency. This may save Libdems in this seat?

    And, nationally, there is a swing from Con to LD. You can knock off a few pp for the loss of an incumbent, but it's nowhere near enough on current national polling.
    Useful feedback, thank you. I'm trying to find constituencies that might defy UNS that might offer value. It's proving harder than actual work.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Labour really struggling to clear the 30% hurdle, with BXP standing down they'll need close to 40% to have a chance of making more gains than the Tories
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Stocky said:

    Anyone think that Tories have a better chance than 3/1 (Betfair) in Lancaster & Fleetwood?

    Yes, good spot.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/nigel-farage-move-to-pull-hundreds-of-brexit-party-candidates-will-make-very-little-difference/ar-BBWB2cj?ocid=spartanntp
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    camel said: "It's proving harder than actual work."

    Ha Ha - yes I`ve thought that may times myself. My wife rolls her eyes every time when she sees me hard at "work".
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    dr_spyn said:

    Sean T is watching icebergs.

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1194245024373977091

    Interesting that he likens them to aircraft carriers. During WW2 the Allies did consider making icebergs into aircraft carriers. The proposal, codenamed Project Habbakuk, was by Geoffrey Pyke, brother of Magnus of TV fame, who came up with “Pykrete”, a mixture of sawdust and ice, as a building material for arctic climes. Apparently Mountbatten was very keen on the idea, but then the development of longer range aircraft closed the Atlantic Gap and there was no point in taking the proposal any further.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Noo said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    Does Starmer want burgers to cost more, or for robots to flip them?
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1194204454448500738?s=20

    Are you saying that strikes lead to investment in innovation?
    Maybe that's what Starmer wants? He is supporting a demand for McD's to pay their staff £15ph. At that staffing cost they'd either have to increase the price of their burgers, or sack almost everyone and replace them with these https://edition.cnn.com/videos/cnnmoney/2018/03/06/flippy-burger-grilling-robot-fast-food-orig.cnn
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Chris said:

    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.

    I don’t think so, as the European Parliament has to ratify the WA too and won’t be sitting until sometime in January.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Surely if Russia really wanted to know anything about the Labour party, they just need to phone up one of their former presenters / guests on RT to get the info from them?

    They have a better inside track on the Tories as they own them hence Johnson wont publish the Russia report

    Perhaps you think the report says Lab are in the Kremlins pocket but Boris doesnt want the report out for what reason?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    For those searching for constituency betting opportunites the link below is very useful:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/11/the-election-battlegrounds-3-north-west.html
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    rpjs said:

    Chris said:

    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.

    I don’t think so, as the European Parliament has to ratify the WA too and won’t be sitting until sometime in January.
    True. I still think Johnson may try to get the meaningful vote through before the New Year, though.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    I mean they are a party offering a pathway to remain. If you are a Remainer and your choice is that pathway or a Conservative, then it makes sense. Depends on the seat, though *shrug*
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,002
    dr_spyn said:

    Sean T is watching icebergs.

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1194245024373977091

    The distances folk will go to avoid paying out on a bet..
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2019
    Chris said:

    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.

    Not possible. Start from getting the full election results, probably on Saturday 14th. First they have to swear in the new MPs, show them where the loos are, etc, then formally open parliament and confirm the Speaker. Normally then you need a Queen's Speech (yes, I know, I know), then the Withdrawal Agreement bill would have to be introduced and debated, including in the Lords, and then, and only then, the EU parliament needs to ratify the deal, but its last session this year is Thursday 19th. Not a chance of getting all that lot done in four working days.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Noo said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    Does Starmer want burgers to cost more, or for robots to flip them?
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1194204454448500738?s=20

    Are you saying that strikes lead to investment in innovation?
    "They're demanding wages of £15 per hour, guaranteed hours, and an end to youth rates."

    If my 16 year old can earn £37,440 for a 48 hour week at Muckies, I'm thinking we might skip the careers fairs and get her on litter patrol right now.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,002
    rpjs said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sean T is watching icebergs.

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1194245024373977091

    Interesting that he likens them to aircraft carriers. During WW2 the Allies did consider making icebergs into aircraft carriers. The proposal, codenamed Project Habbakuk, was by Geoffrey Pyke, brother of Magnus of TV fame, who came up with “Pykrete”, a mixture of sawdust and ice, as a building material for arctic climes. Apparently Mountbatten was very keen on the idea, but then the development of longer range aircraft closed the Atlantic Gap and there was no point in taking the proposal any further.
    So was Churchill I believe, but Alanbrooke guided him to more fruitful endeavours.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    The squeeze is on.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Stocky said:

    Fighting talk from IDS with regard to Farage: "This is a game of two halves — we’ve had the first half and now we’re going to have the second half."

    Only IDS could be thick enough to use "the game of two halves" cliché. Actually could imagine Corbyn using it too!
    When I was growing up we had three halves in a year
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    BannedInParis said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    BannedInParis said:

    Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.

    That is not true. The bit about "clearly" is not true. And quite likely, Lord Farage will be telling everyone Labour is a "party of Remain".
    They are led (I use that word advisedly) by a man, who is not only cretinous in virtually every other way, he is also anti-EU. Anyone who wants the UK to remain in the EU should not vote for Labour while they have Mr. Thicky as their leader.
    Analysis not advocacy. The message from the Tory/Brexit press will be that you must vote Conservative to Get Brexit Done. The corollary is that Labour must be a Remain party. That will be the message from Boris and Nige.
    Labour are clearly not a party of Remain.

    That they are clearly not a party of Leave, either, is also true.
    They are remainy enough. The LDs have successfully moved the Overton window on remain to now mean Revoke A50, but until not long ago Labour's position was similar to the lib dem one, put it to a new ref with a new 'better' deal. Indeed the greens and other remain alliance parties still have new ref as their policy I believe. Even the LDs have said revoke in the event of a majority, otherwise OK for new referendum.

    There are plenty of things to criticise Labour over but their brexit policy is not one of them. It is basically going to be : stick a customs Union onto Boris's deal, put it to the people vs remain, stay out of the campaign either way (like Wilson successfully did in the first referendum).

    Labour are substantially more remainy than they were in 2017 and back then they managed to unite most of the remain vote.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Charles said: "When I was growing up we had three halves in a year"

    And they were all sunny.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    RobD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    The squeeze is on.
    RobD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    The squeeze is on.
    Rotten voting system, needs to change! The LDS inept so far - can they make a bigger impact? The 10% BP is interesting as they aren't going to be standing in at least half the seats...
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    2015 redux?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Have England found a proper test opener ?
    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/19297/report/1204307/day/1/new-zealand-xi-vs-england-xi-tour-match-england-in-new-zealand-2019-20

    Or even two..
    Early days, but fingers crossed.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited November 2019
    bigjohnowls said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Surely if Russia really wanted to know anything about the Labour party, they just need to phone up one of their former presenters / guests on RT to get the info from them?

    They have a better inside track on the Tories as they own them hence Johnson wont publish the Russia report

    Perhaps you think the report says Lab are in the Kremlins pocket but Boris doesnt want the report out for what reason?
    LOL - you do love your fake news.

    The tories pointed the finger squarely at Russia for Salisbury.

    Labour on the other hand...

    Milne / Murray / Corbyn etc etc - all pro Russia and anti west.

    Pathetic

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.

    Not possible. Start from getting the full election results, probably on Saturday 14th. First they have to swear in the new MPs, show them where the loos are, etc, then formally open parliament and confirm the Speaker. Normally then you need a Queen's Speech (yes, I know, I know), then the Withdrawal Agreement bill would have to be introduced and debated, including in the Lords, and then, and only then, the EU parliament needs to ratify the deal, but its last session this year is Thursday 19th. Not a chance of getting all that lot done in four working days.
    In any case Boris has so far only promised by end of January so I think he realises there's absolutely nothing to be gained by promising an even quicker exit. Especially now that Farage has stood down, his leave flank is much more safe. Not like 1 month makes any difference anyway.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The Lib Dem Paul Nuttall?

    “The Lib Dems’ Putney Candidate is proudly claiming she “led the campaign to ban landmines in South Africa, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize”. Impressive achievement…”

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/12/putney-lib-dems-nobel-peace-prize-award-claim/
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TrèsDifficile said:

    Noo said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    Does Starmer want burgers to cost more, or for robots to flip them?
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1194204454448500738?s=20

    Are you saying that strikes lead to investment in innovation?
    Maybe that's what Starmer wants? He is supporting a demand for McD's to pay their staff £15ph. At that staffing cost they'd either have to increase the price of their burgers, or sack almost everyone and replace them with these https://edition.cnn.com/videos/cnnmoney/2018/03/06/flippy-burger-grilling-robot-fast-food-orig.cnn
    So, to be clear, strikes do encourage investment in innovation.
    And investment in innovation... is that a good thing?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    TrèsDifficile said:

    Does Starmer want burgers to cost more, or for robots to flip them?
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1194204454448500738?s=20

    They could just make a smaller profit... In 2017, they made 341m profit.
    I think they could stretch to paying their workers a bit more.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Gabs2 said:

    I don't see anyone that genuinely believes in decent liberal principles, rather than pretending to for social status, can vote Corbyn.

    Oh dear. The inescapable conclusion of this is that my political principles have been adopted purely to enhance my social status. It's only 2 pm but my bed awaits. I must reflect.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    isam said:

    The Lib Dem Paul Nuttall?

    “The Lib Dems’ Putney Candidate is proudly claiming she “led the campaign to ban landmines in South Africa, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize”. Impressive achievement…”

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/12/putney-lib-dems-nobel-peace-prize-award-claim/

    Missing word ("which was awarded...") imo. Has Guido fallen for that old (well, several days' old) Tory trick of using deliberate mistakes to make the LibDems go viral?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Paristonda said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.

    Not possible. Start from getting the full election results, probably on Saturday 14th. First they have to swear in the new MPs, show them where the loos are, etc, then formally open parliament and confirm the Speaker. Normally then you need a Queen's Speech (yes, I know, I know), then the Withdrawal Agreement bill would have to be introduced and debated, including in the Lords, and then, and only then, the EU parliament needs to ratify the deal, but its last session this year is Thursday 19th. Not a chance of getting all that lot done in four working days.
    In any case Boris has so far only promised by end of January so I think he realises there's absolutely nothing to be gained by promising an even quicker exit. Especially now that Farage has stood down, his leave flank is much more safe. Not like 1 month makes any difference anyway.
    Yes, exactly, it's a nonsense. Even if it weren't impossible legislatively, just tidying up the admin stuff wouldn't be practical over Xmas and the New Year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,233
    edited November 2019
    rpjs said:

    Chris said:

    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.

    I don’t think so, as the European Parliament has to ratify the WA too and won’t be sitting until sometime in January.
    We can leave anytime we want by repealing the European Communities Act.

    Not something I'd recommend, but it's perfectly possible.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    Looking forward to @HYUFD's spin on the Tory lead over Labour reducing by 2 points.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,472
    Nigelb said:

    Have England found a proper test opener ?
    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/19297/report/1204307/day/1/new-zealand-xi-vs-england-xi-tour-match-england-in-new-zealand-2019-20

    Or even two..
    Early days, but fingers crossed.

    Sibley possibly, but I'm not so far impressed with Crawley.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Charles said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Stocky said:

    Fighting talk from IDS with regard to Farage: "This is a game of two halves — we’ve had the first half and now we’re going to have the second half."

    Only IDS could be thick enough to use "the game of two halves" cliché. Actually could imagine Corbyn using it too!
    When I was growing up we had three halves in a year
    When I was growing up we had three halves every lunchtime.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,472
    isam said:

    The Lib Dem Paul Nuttall?

    “The Lib Dems’ Putney Candidate is proudly claiming she “led the campaign to ban landmines in South Africa, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize”. Impressive achievement…”

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/12/putney-lib-dems-nobel-peace-prize-award-claim/

    Guido, innit?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    nunu2 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    2015 redux?
    I saw this earlier an I do wonder what to expect from the campaign:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1193984074764967941
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,472
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Paristonda said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.

    Not possible. Start from getting the full election results, probably on Saturday 14th. First they have to swear in the new MPs, show them where the loos are, etc, then formally open parliament and confirm the Speaker. Normally then you need a Queen's Speech (yes, I know, I know), then the Withdrawal Agreement bill would have to be introduced and debated, including in the Lords, and then, and only then, the EU parliament needs to ratify the deal, but its last session this year is Thursday 19th. Not a chance of getting all that lot done in four working days.
    In any case Boris has so far only promised by end of January so I think he realises there's absolutely nothing to be gained by promising an even quicker exit. Especially now that Farage has stood down, his leave flank is much more safe. Not like 1 month makes any difference anyway.
    Yes, exactly, it's a nonsense. Even if it weren't impossible legislatively, just tidying up the admin stuff wouldn't be practical over Xmas and the New Year.
    I suspect that even Cummings recognises that when the Tories have a majority to troop dutifully through the lobbies for every mad scheme Boris will be able to stop rushing about like a demented hamster.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    BOOM!

    Right, I'm closing all my ginormous long Tory bets. Going to take the profit NOW and jump with a clear head and a clean conscience on the Corbyn train. Choo Choo. Choo Choo.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The survation would make it very tight for the tories in the lab marginals where BXP will be standing.

  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    rkrkrk said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    Does Starmer want burgers to cost more, or for robots to flip them?
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1194204454448500738?s=20

    They could just make a smaller profit... In 2017, they made 341m profit.
    I think they could stretch to paying their workers a bit more.
    Prefer they pay taxes on profits then we can pay nurses and carers more. £15
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    Stocky said:

    For those searching for constituency betting opportunites the link below is very useful:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/11/the-election-battlegrounds-3-north-west.html

    A couple of points to note from that analysis:
    Bury North - last time round, the Lib Dem candidate hear urged his supporters to vote Labour. This probably won't happen a second time.

    Bury South - note that this seat, along with Blackley and Broughton to the south, is the core of the largest Jewish population outside London. Labour have been underperforming rather in this area of late.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    I would have thought that the flooding would be more prominent.

    I see that Fishlake is in Doncaster North, Ed Miliband's constituency.

    Perhaps because South Yorkshire is safe Labour.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.

    Not possible. Start from getting the full election results, probably on Saturday 14th. First they have to swear in the new MPs, show them where the loos are, etc, then formally open parliament and confirm the Speaker. Normally then you need a Queen's Speech (yes, I know, I know), then the Withdrawal Agreement bill would have to be introduced and debated, including in the Lords, and then, and only then, the EU parliament needs to ratify the deal, but its last session this year is Thursday 19th. Not a chance of getting all that lot done in four working days.
    To quote F.E. Smith: "It says 'gentlemen' on the door, but don't let that deter you"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Difficile, robot flippers can actually increase employment as the faster rate of production requires more waiting staff, exceeding the loss in kitchen staff.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,472
    Fenman said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    Does Starmer want burgers to cost more, or for robots to flip them?
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1194204454448500738?s=20

    They could just make a smaller profit... In 2017, they made 341m profit.
    I think they could stretch to paying their workers a bit more.
    Prefer they pay taxes on profits then we can pay nurses and carers more. £15
    They could reasonably do both!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Stocky said:

    Charles said: "When I was growing up we had three halves in a year"

    And they were all sunny.

    one of them was sunny with snow :smiley:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Difficile, robot flippers can actually increase employment as the faster rate of production requires more waiting staff, exceeding the loss in kitchen staff.

    When did you last go to a McDonalds? :)
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    RobD said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    The squeeze is on.
    GE20XX: The Rise of the Machines...

    Saving graces: brings Lab up to where other pollsters have them; fieldwork done during "Mogg Week"; BXP still pretty high on 10% and will surely be much lower next Survation.

    But still - yuck.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited November 2019
    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    Suspect this will put further pressure on Nigel to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Chris said:

    rpjs said:

    Chris said:

    Obviously it's not possible for us to be out of the EU by Christmas. The earliest date we can possibly leave is 1 January. Whether that's practically possible even if there's a Tory landslide I'm not sure.

    I don’t think so, as the European Parliament has to ratify the WA too and won’t be sitting until sometime in January.
    True. I still think Johnson may try to get the meaningful vote through before the New Year, though.
    Tbh, if Bozza has a majority he won't need MV4.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Streeter said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    17m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via
    @Survation
    , 06 - 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    Looking forward to @HYUFD's spin on the Tory lead over Labour reducing by 2 points.
    2% is neither here nor there. Overall, the Conservatives have the kind of lead they had in 1987.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Worth pointing out that that Survation poll is a few days old - fieldwork 6-8 Nov
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    Charles said: "When I was growing up we had three halves in a year"

    And they were all sunny.

    one of them was sunny with snow :smiley:
    Where I was, a snowman was built in a dormitory during one of the halves, where it lasted for several days. I understand some parents complained and heating was then installed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Have the various seat predictors taken into account the fact the Brexit Party aren’t standing in those 317 seats?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Floater said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Surely if Russia really wanted to know anything about the Labour party, they just need to phone up one of their former presenters / guests on RT to get the info from them?

    They have a better inside track on the Tories as they own them hence Johnson wont publish the Russia report

    Perhaps you think the report says Lab are in the Kremlins pocket but Boris doesnt want the report out for what reason?
    LOL - you do love your fake news.

    The tories pointed the finger squarely at Russia for Salisbury.

    Labour on the other hand...

    Milne / Murray / Corbyn etc etc - all pro Russia and anti west.

    Pathetic

    Why isnt the report published
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pierrot said:

    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    Charles said: "When I was growing up we had three halves in a year"

    And they were all sunny.

    one of them was sunny with snow :smiley:
    Where I was, a snowman was built in a dormitory during one of the halves, where it lasted for several days. I understand some parents complained and heating was then installed.
    What a load of snowflakes.

    :p
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pierrot said:

    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    Charles said: "When I was growing up we had three halves in a year"

    And they were all sunny.

    one of them was sunny with snow :smiley:
    Where I was, a snowman was built in a dormitory during one of the halves, where it lasted for several days. I understand some parents complained and heating was then installed.
    No wonder the country is going to the dogs.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    MaxPB said: "Tbh, if Bozza has a majority he won't need MV"

    He wont NEED one - but Commons has to have one. I think. Can someone confirm?
This discussion has been closed.