Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.
We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.
True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.
I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.
Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.
If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
The chances of Labour making 60-ish gains and forming a majority Corbyn government are nil.
The chances of Labour making a dozen gains, and the SNP the same, are only very slightly greater, and even if they did I suspect that the SNP would frustrate much of the Labour spending programme.
The chances of Labour stemming their losses, such that Tory losses to the SNP and the Lib Dems are sufficient to force Johnson from office are very slim, but in that case the Lib Dems would have a veto on Labour's political programme and would surely prevent most of it from being implemented. They will do only enough to ensure that such a government survives to hold a referendum. They won't be voting to nationalise the water companies, etc.
If Corbyn becomes Prime Minister he will be the weakest Prime Minister in history. His freedom to manoeuvre will be extremely limited.
I still expect him to lose dozens of seats and test the 200 barrier though. Seventy-five Liberal Democrats could be needed to prevent PM Johnson, and there's not much sign of them.
Corbyn could well win a majority. Tories are far too complacent, Momentum will have a great turnout operation, and British Left Wing voters do not give a damn about their Jewish compatriots.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.
We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.
True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.
I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.
Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.
If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.
I do wonder how far you're allowed to spoil the ballot, as long as you make it very clear how you're voting. Like, I want to find the definition of a spoilt ballot and make a ballot as close to spoilt as possible just so I can imagine the tellers arguing about it for ages.
I have a friend who tells me he once convinced the RO to accept a ballot that just had a male member drawn in one box as a "clear preference" for a specific candidate...
272 + 49 SNP = JC4PM. The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.
You must await the "fully costed manifesto".
272, you think? I'm thinking a few less could still be made to work.
Begs an interesting question, if that were to happen, Cons most seats but Labour form a government - who has then "won" the great Christmas election of 2019?
The British people.
We get rid of Johnson. Swinson castrates Corbyn, so all he can do is call a referendum, get rid of Universal Credit, (possibly) send a (non-lethal) gunboat if China invades Guernsey and resign. Then we have another election, with a respectable Centre-right leader (eg Hammond) back to run the Tories, a genuine social democrat running Labour, Swinson and Sturgeon as before and end up with a LibLab coalition, remaining in the Single Market but technically out of the EU
272 + 49 SNP = JC4PM. The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.
You must await the "fully costed manifesto".
272, you think? I'm thinking a few less could still be made to work.
Begs an interesting question, if that were to happen, Cons most seats but Labour form a government - who has then "won" the great Christmas election of 2019?
The British people.
We get rid of Johnson. Swinson castrates Corbyn, so all he can do is call a referendum, get rid of Universal Credit, (possibly) send a (non-lethal) gunboat if China invades Guernsey and resign. Then we have another election, with a respectable Centre-right leader (eg Hammond) back to run the Tories, a genuine social democrat running Labour, Swinson and Sturgeon as before and end up with a LibLab coalition, remaining in the Single Market but technically out of the EU
Simples.
The minor party in any coalition or supply & confidence arrangement gets screwed. Lib Dems in 2015, DUP in 2019, pretty much every example from the continent. Once Corbyn is PM, even if frustrated, Labour will blame problems on the minor parties not supporting him and he will win a majority at the next GE.
Model updated with latest Survation poll (models runs off these polls - also updated Welsh and Scottish polls while I was at it). Back in hung parliament territory even with BXP not standing in Con seats. CON 320; LAB 234: LD 23; BXP 0; GRN 1; SNP 50; PC 4. If Survation are still the Gold Standard then Tories should be worried.
Interesting because materially different to the betting spreads. I have positive MTM on my (long Con) positions and am agonizing about whether to close or run them. Your model says close at least partially. Perhaps I ought to. If I don't and they turn into losses my pleasure at Boris falling short would be rather soiled.
It feels like the LibDems need to do something or say something to get in the news, especially if the court cases fall and they aren’t in the main debates.
They must have something eye catching in their manifesto, surely?
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.
By-election ASAP? If so then bizarrely it would actually be rational to vote for the dead person if one prefered the deceased person's party, to force another vote!
Edit - see @dyedwoolie has pointed out this does not happen
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.
I think if there is a death it is postponed and run as a by election in the new parliament, cf Skipton and Ripon in 2010?
Yes, sorry, I was wrong, you are right, (except when the death is an independent candidate.)
It feels like the LibDems need to do something or say something to get in the news, especially if the court cases fall and they aren’t in the main debates.
They must have something eye catching in their manifesto, surely?
Difficult for the LDs to get attention when the main two parties are hogging the headlines with a succession of blunders and scandals.
272 + 49 SNP = JC4PM. The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.
You must await the "fully costed manifesto".
272, you think? I'm thinking a few less could still be made to work.
Begs an interesting question, if that were to happen, Cons most seats but Labour form a government - who has then "won" the great Christmas election of 2019?
The British people.
We get rid of Johnson. Swinson castrates Corbyn, so all he can do is call a referendum, get rid of Universal Credit, (possibly) send a (non-lethal) gunboat if China invades Guernsey and resign. Then we have another election, with a respectable Centre-right leader (eg Hammond) back to run the Tories, a genuine social democrat running Labour, Swinson and Sturgeon as before and end up with a LibLab coalition, remaining in the Single Market but technically out of the EU
Simples.
That does in fact sound very appealing.
Not sure how Lib-Lab coalition ends up out of EU though, even technically - kind of compromise that would make the LD's earlier compromise/sell out* on tuition fees look minor.
It feels like the LibDems need to do something or say something to get in the news, especially if the court cases fall and they aren’t in the main debates.
They must have something eye catching in their manifesto, surely?
Difficult for the LDs to get attention when the main two parties are hogging the headlines with a succession of blunders and scandals.
Maybe they should go with the “gay sex is a sin” angle again? It got them some press last time.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
The chances of Labour making 60-ish gains and forming a majority Corbyn government are nil.
The chances of Labour making a dozen gains, and the SNP the same, are only very slightly greater, and even if they did I suspect that the SNP would frustrate much of the Labour spending programme.
The chances of Labour stemming their losses, such that Tory losses to the SNP and the Lib Dems are sufficient to force Johnson from office are very slim, but in that case the Lib Dems would have a veto on Labour's political programme and would surely prevent most of it from being implemented. They will do only enough to ensure that such a government survives to hold a referendum. They won't be voting to nationalise the water companies, etc.
If Corbyn becomes Prime Minister he will be the weakest Prime Minister in history. His freedom to manoeuvre will be extremely limited.
I still expect him to lose dozens of seats and test the 200 barrier though. Seventy-five Liberal Democrats could be needed to prevent PM Johnson, and there's not much sign of them.
Corbyn could well win a majority. Tories are far too complacent, Momentum will have a great turnout operation, and British Left Wing voters do not give a damn about their Jewish compatriots.
Why not put £100 on a Corbyn majority? You'd make over £2k if it came in at present.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.
We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.
True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.
I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.
Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.
If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.
I do wonder how far you're allowed to spoil the ballot, as long as you make it very clear how you're voting. Like, I want to find the definition of a spoilt ballot and make a ballot as close to spoilt as possible just so I can imagine the tellers arguing about it for ages.
I have a friend who tells me he once convinced the RO to accept a ballot that just had a male member drawn in one box as a "clear preference" for a specific candidate...
I was an agent once (and fortunately this didn't matter) where we had for 2 seat: 2 Tories, 2 LDs and 1 Lab standing. Someone had put a cross by one of the Tories and then clearly crossed it out by scribbling all over it and then put a cross by the Lab candidate.
It was as clear as it could possibly be that he intended voting for the Lab candidate and was cancelling the vote for the Tory, but if at all confusing then the next option would be to consider it spoilt.
But no, the RO decided it was 1 vote Lab and 1 vote for one of the Tories.
"Get Brexit done" of course means "Get Brexit started", so this divisive, bloody mess is set to run for years... and years... and years.
Unless, of course the Tories lose, in which case they will have received just punishment for inflicting their own bitter internal struggles on the rest of the country.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
You know, Tories look just as androidy to me. Both as bad as each other.
Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.
We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.
True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.
I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.
Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.
If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
Because people don't care and/or have a laugh and/or don't have time to think about it. Right up until they are in the ballot box with pencil in hand.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
You know, Tories look just as androidy to me. Both as bad as each other.
Do we lie to the fucking pollsters like clockwork?
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
That's last election, but it was a one-off. Didn't happen the previous two, eg here's the 2010 campaign:
272 + 49 SNP = JC4PM. The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.
You must await the "fully costed manifesto".
272, you think? I'm thinking a few less could still be made to work.
Begs an interesting question, if that were to happen, Cons most seats but Labour form a government - who has then "won" the great Christmas election of 2019?
The British people.
We get rid of Johnson. Swinson castrates Corbyn, so all he can do is call a referendum, get rid of Universal Credit, (possibly) send a (non-lethal) gunboat if China invades Guernsey and resign. Then we have another election, with a respectable Centre-right leader (eg Hammond) back to run the Tories, a genuine social democrat running Labour, Swinson and Sturgeon as before and end up with a LibLab coalition, remaining in the Single Market but technically out of the EU
Simples.
That does in fact sound very appealing.
Not sure how Lib-Lab coalition ends up out of EU though, even technically - kind of compromise that would make the LD's earlier compromise/sell out* on tuition fees look minor.
*delete according to personal viewpoint
I mean, the assumption is Labour would negotiate a soft Brexit and give if to Referendum (as is their policy) and the public would vote for it. Which I kinda assume would happen as well.
I mean, I'm more interested by the possible future of Corbyn and his Labour party putting lots of things to vote that are super popular (spending on NHS, renationalising the railways, regulating banks and big business) and just using it as a cudgel to beat the LDs with. Like, can the LDs, who consistently argue to centrists and lefties, that they are good on the environment vote down a Green New Deal? I just think Corbyn would lose those votes in any hung parliament, but be able to get the LDs to show themselves to be mostly Wet Tories. If Corbyn is PM, something bad is going on with the Tories anyway, so unlikely they can turn things around and win in 6 months / a year.
A Corbyn led Labour party delivers a (soft) Brexit, after hammering the LDs on the left, calls an election. I could see that winning big...
BUT we would need to see Corbyn in No 10 first, and I still think that is highly unlikely.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
Because people don't care and/or have a laugh and/or don't have time to think about it. Right up until they are in the ballot box with pencil in hand.
In which case the pollsters need a permanent "android" modifier on all their polls, which might be something like "Lab + 5 no matter what they say"!
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.
We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.
True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.
I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.
Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.
If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.
I do wonder how far you're allowed to spoil the ballot, as long as you make it very clear how you're voting. Like, I want to find the definition of a spoilt ballot and make a ballot as close to spoilt as possible just so I can imagine the tellers arguing about it for ages.
I have a friend who tells me he once convinced the RO to accept a ballot that just had a male member drawn in one box as a "clear preference" for a specific candidate...
Any fule kno that a crudely drawn cock in the box counts as a vote. It's a fairly frequent occurrence, I'm assured.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
You know, Tories look just as androidy to me. Both as bad as each other.
Do we lie to the fucking pollsters like clockwork?
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.
I think if there is a death it is postponed and run as a by election in the new parliament, cf Skipton and Ripon in 2010?
It was actually Thirsk and Malton. I remember going there to campaign after the general election. Lots of residents couldn't see why they were bothering as a government had been formed by then. I spent a lot of time explaining that they still needed a representative.
Isn't this strategy of releasing a manifesto just 2 weeks before polling day a huge risk for the Tories? Labour release theirs and hog all of the headlines for quite a while. Honey for everyone paid for by nasty billionaires and Amazon. Hhhmmm. That worries me far more than a couple of opinion polls showing a 'squeeze' comfortably within a margin of error.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
You know, Tories look just as androidy to me. Both as bad as each other.
Do we lie to the fucking pollsters like clockwork?
Probably. Tories lie about most else.
Care to say which party of non-liars you're voting for?
Isn't this strategy of releasing a manifesto just 2 weeks before polling day a huge risk for the Tories? Labour release theirs and hog all of the headlines for quite a while. Honey for everyone paid for by nasty billionaires and Amazon. Hhhmmm. That worries me more than a couple of opinion polls showing a 'squeeze' comfortably within a margin of error.
Gives the media more time to pick out the inevitable holes in the Reds' offering rather than being diverted by an over-lapping manifesto release from the Blues.
It is often mistakenly referred to as COBRA by journalists and other commentators who confuse the facility with the old Treasury Board Room - "Conference Room A" - located in Kent's Treasury
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
Because people don't care and/or have a laugh and/or don't have time to think about it. Right up until they are in the ballot box with pencil in hand.
I was a presiding officer at the European elections. I was somewhat taken aback by the number of people who came in to the polling station still seemingly dithering over who to vote for.
Isn't this strategy of releasing a manifesto just 2 weeks before polling day a huge risk for the Tories? Labour release theirs and hog all of the headlines for quite a while. Honey for everyone paid for by nasty billionaires and Amazon. Hhhmmm. That worries me more than a couple of opinion polls showing a 'squeeze' comfortably within a margin of error.
I'm guessing the logic is that Labour's trillions will make a big splash regardless, therefore instead of being drowned out the Tories wait for the initial wave to subside, so they get more attention and their message is fresher in the last fortnight. It's a risk, like everything else.
Model updated with latest Survation poll (models runs off these polls - also updated Welsh and Scottish polls while I was at it). Back in hung parliament territory even with BXP not standing in Con seats. CON 320; LAB 234: LD 23; BXP 0; GRN 1; SNP 50; PC 4. If Survation are still the Gold Standard then Tories should be worried.
Interesting because materially different to the betting spreads. I have positive MTM on my (long Con) positions and am agonizing about whether to close or run them. Your model says close at least partially. Perhaps I ought to. If I don't and they turn into losses my pleasure at Boris falling short would be rather soiled.
Perhaps the betting markets are factoring in a further Farage retreat, or look at the full range of pollsters rather than just one (that is relatively favourable to Labour). Or maybe they are slow to respond? After all, my model was very similar to the betting spreads before I updated it with this poll. DYOR applies as always!
One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet. Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.
This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.
We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.
True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.
I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.
Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.
If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.
I do wonder how far you're allowed to spoil the ballot, as long as you make it very clear how you're voting. Like, I want to find the definition of a spoilt ballot and make a ballot as close to spoilt as possible just so I can imagine the tellers arguing about it for ages.
I have a friend who tells me he once convinced the RO to accept a ballot that just had a male member drawn in one box as a "clear preference" for a specific candidate...
Any fule kno that a crudely drawn cock in the box counts as a vote. It's a fairly frequent occurrence, I'm assured.
the best way is a large cock drawn across all possibilities
One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet. Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.
This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.
I'll join forces with you if you assist me in eliminating 'this moment in time'.
Apparently a black swan has been sighted swimming down a flooded street in South Yorkshire.
It took Bozo 5 days to see it.
He called a COBRA meeting, the reflex action of any PM wishing to create an appearance of 'doing something'.
I hate to be a pedant (that’s a lie) but it’s “COBR”.
I think you will find it is Cabinet Office Briefing Room A
No, that’s a common misconception. You’ve done it now. I’m going full on pedant.
What actually happens is that a Cabinet sub-committee sits, which has been known by many names but is at the minute a sub-committee of the National Security Council from memory. It will be led by the PM or the Secretary of State responsible for the current situation under the Civil Contingencies Act (e.g. DEFRA for flooding).
A Department like DEFRA will of course have its own ops room and C2, and will find the COBR process very irritating if it’s not in need of widespread cross-Gvt assistance. The real world impact of COBR being “called” when it’s not needed is taking officials’ eyes off the problem and having them turn towards endless briefing instead.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
Because people don't care and/or have a laugh and/or don't have time to think about it. Right up until they are in the ballot box with pencil in hand.
I was a presiding officer at the European elections. I was somewhat taken aback by the number of people who came in to the polling station still seemingly dithering over who to vote for.
I genuinely thought that the "walk to the polling station" would push it over the line for Remain as people left behind all the fluff and fancy. Was not to be but I have no doubt plenty wait for that walk to focus their minds.
It’s strange seeing some Tory supporters in here go into a blind panic over one poll.
I can’t see Bozo making the errors that May did and I’m sure the manifesto will be one which has nothing controversial.
Unless the Tories do something really stupid it’s their election to lose. I’d love to see the back of the Tories but my head says they’ll get a decent majority .
One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet. Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.
This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.
I think that's because you're wrong about "bred"
breed (v.) Old English bredan "bring (young) to birth, procreate," also "cherish, keep warm," from West Germanic *brodjan (source also of Old High German bruoten, German brüten "to brood, hatch"), from *brod- "fetus, hatchling," from PIE root *bhreu- "to boil, bubble, effervesce, burn." The etymological notion is incubation, warming to hatch. Intransitive sense "come into being" is from c. 1200; that of "beget or bear offspring" is from mid-13c. Of livestock, etc., "procure by the mating of parents and rear for use," mid-14c. Sense of "grow up, be reared" (in a clan, etc.) is late 14c.; meaning "form by education" is from mid-15c. https://www.etymonline.com/word/breed
Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!
£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.
One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet. Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.
This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.
I think that's because you're wrong about "bred"
breed (v.) Old English bredan "bring (young) to birth, procreate," also "cherish, keep warm," from West Germanic *brodjan (source also of Old High German bruoten, German brüten "to brood, hatch"), from *brod- "fetus, hatchling," from PIE root *bhreu- "to boil, bubble, effervesce, burn." The etymological notion is incubation, warming to hatch. Intransitive sense "come into being" is from c. 1200; that of "beget or bear offspring" is from mid-13c. Of livestock, etc., "procure by the mating of parents and rear for use," mid-14c. Sense of "grow up, be reared" (in a clan, etc.) is late 14c.; meaning "form by education" is from mid-15c. https://www.etymonline.com/word/breed
So from that perspective born and bred means 'born and born'?
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet. Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.
This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.
I think that's because you're wrong about "bred"
breed (v.) Old English bredan "bring (young) to birth, procreate," also "cherish, keep warm," from West Germanic *brodjan (source also of Old High German bruoten, German brüten "to brood, hatch"), from *brod- "fetus, hatchling," from PIE root *bhreu- "to boil, bubble, effervesce, burn." The etymological notion is incubation, warming to hatch. Intransitive sense "come into being" is from c. 1200; that of "beget or bear offspring" is from mid-13c. Of livestock, etc., "procure by the mating of parents and rear for use," mid-14c. Sense of "grow up, be reared" (in a clan, etc.) is late 14c.; meaning "form by education" is from mid-15c. https://www.etymonline.com/word/breed
So from that perspective born and bred means 'born and born'?
No. Read the bold italic part. Breed has also meant "grow up", "be reared" or "form by education" for over 500 years.
It’s strange seeing some Tory supporters in here go into a blind panic over one poll.
I can’t see Bozo making the errors that May did and I’m sure the manifesto will be one which has nothing controversial.
Unless the Tories do something really stupid it’s their election to lose. I’d love to see the back of the Tories but my head says they’ll get a decent majority .
The problem is that a lot of voters the Tories need are, frankly, self-indulgent and easily distracted. Tory Remainers say, "Ooh, I'm not sure about this thing with Nigel, maybe I'll go Lib Dem instead". BXP voters say "Ooh, I want Brexit, so BXP must be the best way to get it, never mind what the polls say".
Meanwhile LAB voters just go "Ooh, trillions of free stuff from Corbyn? Then it's Labour all the way!"
Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!
£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.
Yep saw that. I'm seriously tempted. It's a bet I would enjoy losing.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
We're used to the idea that government have awful mid-term polls and then pick up. This is possibly a variant of the same thing, because Brexit has dominated the agenda for years and Labour's position on that has been, uh, complicated. Now Labour has reached a reasonably defensible Brexit position AND the public debate has partly moved on from Brexit, things are evening up again ...a bit. If I were a Tory I'd still be pretty confident.
BTW, from my totally biased perspective, the other parties don't seem to have been prepared for the election not being just about Brexit. Conservative policy on non-Brexit issues is barely trying to be credible (deficit, who cares, we'll spend lots, we'll build 30 hospitals, well maybe 4 hospitals, whatever, no you can't have the details). LibDem policy outside Brexit and President Swinson is largely AWOL in their literature so far.
It is often mistakenly referred to as COBRA by journalists and other commentators who confuse the facility with the old Treasury Board Room - "Conference Room A" - located in Kent's Treasury
More to the point, "when the legend becomes fact, print the legend" applies here.
It’s strange seeing some Tory supporters in here go into a blind panic over one poll.
I can’t see Bozo making the errors that May did and I’m sure the manifesto will be one which has nothing controversial.
Unless the Tories do something really stupid it’s their election to lose. I’d love to see the back of the Tories but my head says they’ll get a decent majority .
The problem is that a lot of voters the Tories need are, frankly, self-indulgent and easily distracted. Tory Remainers say, "Ooh, I'm not sure about this thing with Nigel, maybe I'll go Lib Dem instead". BXP voters say "Ooh, I want Brexit, so BXP must be the best way to get it, never mind what the polls say".
Meanwhile LAB voters just go "Ooh, trillions of free stuff from Corbyn? Then it's Labour all the way!"
The tory critique of Corbyn has been pretty lacklustre, to my mind. The public knows Boris is going to be spending more money too.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.
We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.
True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.
I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.
Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.
If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.
I do wonder how far you're allowed to spoil the ballot, as long as you make it very clear how you're voting. Like, I want to find the definition of a spoilt ballot and make a ballot as close to spoilt as possible just so I can imagine the tellers arguing about it for ages.
I have a friend who tells me he once convinced the RO to accept a ballot that just had a male member drawn in one box as a "clear preference" for a specific candidate...
Any fule kno that a crudely drawn cock in the box counts as a vote. It's a fairly frequent occurrence, I'm assured.
the best way is a large cock drawn across all possibilities
"Ah, but you see, Mr returning officer, the majority of the veins have been drawn in the box next to my candidate's name"
Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!
£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.
Yep saw that. I'm seriously tempted. It's a bet I would enjoy losing.
The disappointment of Leave winning was mitigated a tadge for many PB Remainers thanks to @AndyJS' magnificent spreadsheet which meant we backed Leave at all prices throughout the night.
One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet. Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.
This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.
I think that's because you're wrong about "bred"
breed (v.) Old English bredan "bring (young) to birth, procreate," also "cherish, keep warm," from West Germanic *brodjan (source also of Old High German bruoten, German brüten "to brood, hatch"), from *brod- "fetus, hatchling," from PIE root *bhreu- "to boil, bubble, effervesce, burn." The etymological notion is incubation, warming to hatch. Intransitive sense "come into being" is from c. 1200; that of "beget or bear offspring" is from mid-13c. Of livestock, etc., "procure by the mating of parents and rear for use," mid-14c. Sense of "grow up, be reared" (in a clan, etc.) is late 14c.; meaning "form by education" is from mid-15c. https://www.etymonline.com/word/breed
So from that perspective born and bred means 'born and born'?
No, born and brought up (as people think it means). Otherwise, if you think about it, it should be "bred and born."
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?
We're used to the idea that government have awful mid-term polls and then pick up. This is possibly a variant of the same thing, because Brexit has dominated the agenda for years and Labour's position on that has been, uh, complicated. Now Labour has reached a reasonably defensible Brexit position AND the public debate has partly moved on from Brexit, things are evening up again ...a bit. If I were a Tory I'd still be pretty confident.
BTW, from my totally biased perspective, the other parties don't seem to have been prepared for the election not being just about Brexit. Conservative policy on non-Brexit issues is barely trying to be credible (deficit, who cares, we'll spend lots, we'll build 30 hospitals, well maybe 4 hospitals, whatever, no you can't have the details). LibDem policy outside Brexit and President Swinson is largely AWOL in their literature so far.
Your last point may well be true, but I'm no less thunderstruck about it. How much would it cost to hire a pair of clever young graduates whose only job would be to sit in a back office and come up with popular and at least plausible policies on all these issues, all day every day? What are these parties spending their money on? What research do they actually do?
C - cantankerous O - old R - ratbag B - burns Y - your N - neighbourhood
For all the reputation we have as being educated and intelligent, us Jews are fxxking stupid. We get screwed time and time again but keep convincing ourselves that this time is different. We learn about all the things that happened to our ancestors and think "How did they let this happen? Why did they stay in such a country? Wasn't it obvious the society was so intolerant?" Then we go back to our own lives and think "Of course this doesn't apply here. We are safe in this country. We are integrated and our neighbours have our backs. They value us as human beings. They will stand up for us if the time ever comes."
Al-Andalus, Poland, Algeria, Russia, Germany, Turkey. It took the Holocaust to make us realise we needed our own state and even after that we still get fooled again. No-one gives a damn about us. We are always a second priority when people need to be counted.
Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!
£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.
Yep saw that. I'm seriously tempted. It's a bet I would enjoy losing.
The disappointment of Leave winning was mitigated a tadge for many PB Remainers thanks to @AndyJS' magnificent spreadsheet which meant we backed Leave at all prices throughout the night.
Indeed, although the scale of my winnings was compromised somewhat when, in a whisky-addled haze at 1am, I shovelled even more on Leave only to realise three minutes later I'd actually piled on Remain – and thus spent the next few minutes frantically trying my best to lay it off.
One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet. Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.
This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.
Born and bred in X to me means that you were born in X and so were your family going back generations. For example, I was born and bred in South Yorkshire. As it happens I was also born and raised in South Yorkshire but that is different. If, for example, I had moved from there to London at the age of 2, instead of at 18, I would still say to people - if I was the sort to come out with this type of thing - that I was born and bred in South Yorkshire. And I think I would be within my rights to do so.
It’s strange seeing some Tory supporters in here go into a blind panic over one poll.
I can’t see Bozo making the errors that May did and I’m sure the manifesto will be one which has nothing controversial.
Unless the Tories do something really stupid it’s their election to lose. I’d love to see the back of the Tories but my head says they’ll get a decent majority .
The problem is that a lot of voters the Tories need are, frankly, self-indulgent and easily distracted. Tory Remainers say, "Ooh, I'm not sure about this thing with Nigel, maybe I'll go Lib Dem instead". BXP voters say "Ooh, I want Brexit, so BXP must be the best way to get it, never mind what the polls say".
Meanwhile LAB voters just go "Ooh, trillions of free stuff from Corbyn? Then it's Labour all the way!"
Voting Labour is visceral - it’s all about identity and loyalty to your heritage. Policy doesn’t really feature.
That’s why it’s such a catastrophe that Corbyn has captured the party.
Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!
£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.
Yep saw that. I'm seriously tempted. It's a bet I would enjoy losing.
The disappointment of Leave winning was mitigated a tadge for many PB Remainers thanks to @AndyJS' magnificent spreadsheet which meant we backed Leave at all prices throughout the night.
Indeed, although the scale of my winnings was compromised somewhat when, in a whisky-addled haze at 1am, I shovelled even more on Leave only to realise three minutes later I'd actually piled on Remain – and thus spent the next few minutes frantically trying my best to lay it off.
Comments
I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.
Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.
If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.
I have a friend who tells me he once convinced the RO to accept a ballot that just had a male member drawn in one box as a "clear preference" for a specific candidate...
Seems like a negotiating tactic: eg Tories slowball 2 BXP targets, BXP withdraws from 20ish Lab leave seats.
We get rid of Johnson. Swinson castrates Corbyn, so all he can do is call a referendum, get rid of Universal Credit, (possibly) send a (non-lethal) gunboat if China invades Guernsey and resign.
Then we have another election, with a respectable Centre-right leader (eg Hammond) back to run the Tories, a genuine social democrat running Labour, Swinson and Sturgeon as before and end up with a LibLab coalition, remaining in the Single Market but technically out of the EU
Simples.
Edit - see @dyedwoolie has pointed out this does not happen
Not sure how Lib-Lab coalition ends up out of EU though, even technically - kind of compromise that would make the LD's earlier compromise/sell out* on tuition fees look minor.
*delete according to personal viewpoint
Tories +0, Labour + 490.
Hopefully a bit of "Day the polls turned" incoming
It was as clear as it could possibly be that he intended voting for the Lab candidate and was cancelling the vote for the Tory, but if at all confusing then the next option would be to consider it spoilt.
But no, the RO decided it was 1 vote Lab and 1 vote for one of the Tories.
What a pillock. It didn't matter.
https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1194281002501365761
Unless, of course the Tories lose, in which case they will have received just punishment for inflicting their own bitter internal struggles on the rest of the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:UK_General_Election_2010_YouGov_Polls_Graph.png
I mean, I'm more interested by the possible future of Corbyn and his Labour party putting lots of things to vote that are super popular (spending on NHS, renationalising the railways, regulating banks and big business) and just using it as a cudgel to beat the LDs with. Like, can the LDs, who consistently argue to centrists and lefties, that they are good on the environment vote down a Green New Deal? I just think Corbyn would lose those votes in any hung parliament, but be able to get the LDs to show themselves to be mostly Wet Tories. If Corbyn is PM, something bad is going on with the Tories anyway, so unlikely they can turn things around and win in 6 months / a year.
A Corbyn led Labour party delivers a (soft) Brexit, after hammering the LDs on the left, calls an election. I could see that winning big...
BUT we would need to see Corbyn in No 10 first, and I still think that is highly unlikely.
He was the future....
It is often mistakenly referred to as COBRA by journalists and other commentators who confuse the facility with the old Treasury Board Room - "Conference Room A" - located in Kent's Treasury
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1194203810937409536
https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/scotlands-only-brexit-party-mep-louis-stedman-bryce-stands-down-as-general-election-candidate-after-partys-decision-not-to-contest-tory-held-seats/
Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.
This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.
What actually happens is that a Cabinet sub-committee sits, which has been known by many names but is at the minute a sub-committee of the National Security Council from memory. It will be led by the PM or the Secretary of State responsible for the current situation under the Civil Contingencies Act (e.g. DEFRA for flooding).
A Department like DEFRA will of course have its own ops room and C2, and will find the COBR process very irritating if it’s not in need of widespread cross-Gvt assistance. The real world impact of COBR being “called” when it’s not needed is taking officials’ eyes off the problem and having them turn towards endless briefing instead.
https://mobile.twitter.com/arslan_hidayat/status/1194230303126151170
C - Communist
O - Offering
R - Reaches
B - Britain
Y - Yesterday's
N - News
Horsefeathers...
http://britainelects.com/2019/11/12/british-attitudes-towards-immigration-are-relatively-similar-across-the-union-despite-brexit-divisions/
I can’t see Bozo making the errors that May did and I’m sure the manifesto will be one which has nothing controversial.
Unless the Tories do something really stupid it’s their election to lose. I’d love to see the back of the Tories but my head says they’ll get a decent majority .
breed (v.)
Old English bredan "bring (young) to birth, procreate," also "cherish, keep warm," from West Germanic *brodjan (source also of Old High German bruoten, German brüten "to brood, hatch"), from *brod- "fetus, hatchling," from PIE root *bhreu- "to boil, bubble, effervesce, burn." The etymological notion is incubation, warming to hatch.
Intransitive sense "come into being" is from c. 1200; that of "beget or bear offspring" is from mid-13c. Of livestock, etc., "procure by the mating of parents and rear for use," mid-14c. Sense of "grow up, be reared" (in a clan, etc.) is late 14c.; meaning "form by education" is from mid-15c.
https://www.etymonline.com/word/breed
C - cantankerous
O - old
R - ratbag
B - burns
Y - your
N - neighbourhood
Will Bozo be able to keep these winter migrants from elsewhere in Europe out of the UK post-Brexit?
Meanwhile LAB voters just go "Ooh, trillions of free stuff from Corbyn? Then it's Labour all the way!"
Same for me.
BTW, from my totally biased perspective, the other parties don't seem to have been prepared for the election not being just about Brexit. Conservative policy on non-Brexit issues is barely trying to be credible (deficit, who cares, we'll spend lots, we'll build 30 hospitals, well maybe 4 hospitals, whatever, no you can't have the details). LibDem policy outside Brexit and President Swinson is largely AWOL in their literature so far.
The Labour Leave voter numbers make grim reading for Labour.
Al-Andalus, Poland, Algeria, Russia, Germany, Turkey. It took the Holocaust to make us realise we needed our own state and even after that we still get fooled again. No-one gives a damn about us. We are always a second priority when people need to be counted.
There's a moral there somewhere.
That’s why it’s such a catastrophe that Corbyn has captured the party.