The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Not possible. Start from getting the full election results, probably on Saturday 14th. First they have to swear in the new MPs, show them where the loos are, etc, then formally open parliament and confirm the Speaker. Normally then you need a Queen's Speech (yes, I know, I know), then the Withdrawal Agreement bill would have to be introduced and debated, including in the Lords, and then, and only then, the EU parliament needs to ratify the deal, but its last session this year is Thursday 19th. Not a chance of getting all that lot done in four working days.
That's right. But he could try and push the MV through. That would be a piece of triumphalist theatre which might appeal. It's 5 on Betfair that he does this. Which would be quite something. Imagine the whole country, Leaver Nation, full of festive cheer, crowded around the television and watching agog as "our Boris" gets that 'Deal' over the line on Friday 20th. Talk about a special Christmas.
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.
That is not true. The bit about "clearly" is not true. And quite likely, Lord Farage will be telling everyone Labour is a "party of Remain".
They are led (I use that word advisedly) by a man, who is not only cretinous in virtually every other way, he is also anti-EU.
Boris Johnson has several times stood on pro-EU platforms too. For example, from the Tories' 2010 manifesto: "We believe Britain’s interests are best served by membership of a European Union that is an association of its member States." But few care, any more than they care that Jeremy Corbyn campaigned for Brexit in the 1975 referendum or that Brexit was promised in the 1983 Labour manifesto.
Why would you vote for Labour if you were a remainer? They are clearly not a party of Remain.
Because Brexit might not be the only issue for you. For most people, I don't think it is. That, and because out of all the results that are realistically possible, a Labour victory is the surest way to get on the path that leads to Remain.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
Tbh, a lot of the issues from the Tory side was poor campaigning. It hasn't been so bad until now. Additionally, the non headline questions seem to be favourable to Bozza where they weren't for May.
Does the fact that 22% are going BXP / UKIP not suggest that in certain seats Tories will not make the gains needed to flip the seat, and whilst Lab vote share may go down in many seats so will Con, and it won't be enough to push over the finish line?
Depends what those voters choose to do when faced with the forced choice between Johnson and Corbyn.
Your new profile picture... is this what you think is going to happen after Brexit?
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
There is a deadline to print the ballots, an individual can say they've dropped out, but they will be on the ballot if they don't do so by the deadline (from my understanding)
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
I thought they still appeared on the ballot paper if they withdrew after the deadline.
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
Tbh, a lot of the issues from the Tory side was poor campaigning. It hasn't been so bad until now. Additionally, the non headline questions seem to be favourable to Bozza where they weren't for May.
I mean, I personally do think Corbyn is bad at LOTO stuff, but this made me chuckle:
Norfolk North was solid blue territory before Norman Lamb.
Now he has quit, with all the known-name bonuses he has built up over 30 years as a PPC them an MP going with him, a 3.4% Lib->Con swing turns the constituency blue again.
3-1 against this happening seems like value, especially as the area is known as much for its rural charm, retirees and brexitiness as it is for its excellent crabs."
Problem is that TBP will be standing in that constituency. This may save Libdems in this seat?
There are two questions about North Norfolk:
1. How much of the LD vote is a Norman Lamb personal vote? 2. How much will the "revoke" policy hurt them there?
My instinct - and it's just an instinct - is that the LDs will hold on this time. When popular* local LD incumbents step down, then very often their successor gets a term, such as Liz Lynne in Rochedale. You also shouldn't discount UNS. The LDs are likely to get almost twice their 2017 vote share, while the Tories are down. Finally, at the local elections this year, the LDs hammered the Conservatives. Quoting Norfolk News:
The Lib Dems won 30 seats on the council, with the Tories taking just six and independents claiming four. The results are in stark contrast to the 2015 election outcome, when the Conservatives won 33 out of what then a 48-seat council.
So, I'm going for LD hold (this time).
Edit to add: 3-1, though, is certainly not a bad price. I'd definitely be on the Tories at 5-1, probably 9-2. 3-1 is probably about right.
2 polls with fieldwork 6 to 8 Nov show plus 3 Lab and a narrowing of the lead, the only poll with fieldwork more recently is the ICM. It looks to me like Rees Mogg had a limited effect last week narrowing the race a little but we need some more up to date polling to see if this was a one time adjustment or if a trend is in play
A couple of points to note from that analysis: Bury North - last time round, the Lib Dem candidate hear urged his supporters to vote Labour. This probably won't happen a second time.
Bury South - note that this seat, along with Blackley and Broughton to the south, is the core of the largest Jewish population outside London. Labour have been underperforming rather in this area of late.
More good info.
I might have a try for Heywood & Middleton. The BXP candidate is the ex-Labour ex-Council leader, who might be able to prise away more labour than tory voters..
This, plus the swings shown in the recent regional polling gives the tories an outside chance. 12/5.
In deference to the incumbent, who is supporting responsible Gambling UK, I won't be betting the farm on it.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
I'd be relaxed if I was Boris, decent lead and enough for majority with his worst pollster and Lab still sub 30%. The field dates cover more of the Tory pre election wobble than the Ian Austin/Tom Watson Labour unravelling and then of course it is also around the time BXP did their launch and before the Tories gobbled up plenty of their vote.
As things stand they will defend 300 of those 317 seats IMO. Yes the remain vote will coalesce behind Corbyn gradually but we are a long way in the polls from Tories having to defend seats from Labour.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
I'd be relaxed if I was Boris, decent lead and enough for majority with his worst pollster and Lab still sub 30%. The field dates cover more of the Tory pre election wobble than the Ian Austin/Tom Watson Labour unravelling and then of course it is also around the time BXP did their launch and before the Tories gobbled up plenty of their vote.
As things stand they will defend 300 of those 317 seats IMO. Yes the remain vote will coalesce behind Corbyn gradually but we are a long way in the polls from Tories having to defend seats from Labour.
Survation are Labours 2nd best behind ComRes in recent times
Baxter gives Con a majority of 28 based on that Survation. Would be what around 35 when Sinn Fein don't show up?
That would perfect for me. A big enough majority to get Brexit done. Not so big that Boris is able to go crazy and do what he likes (would YOU trust Boris with a landslide majority?) and Labour close enough to Con to still be in the game for 2024 if they get their act together.
I think a result somewhere around this is quite likely...
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
A Tory majority is bound to drift from its current price of 1.06. No way will it monotonically tighten all the way from now until 12 December.
No, in that case it was @Byronic, me and @GIN1138 who pointed out that the dementia tax was a complete disaster for the Tories. Much to everyone else's amusement iirc.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
A Tory majority is bound to drift from its current price of 1.06. No way will it monotonically tighten all the way from now until 12 December.
That is most seats in fairness. A Tory majority may well ebb and flow but I think it will go shorter than 1.5 somewhere in the campaign.
Norfolk North was solid blue territory before Norman Lamb.
Now he has quit, with all the known-name bonuses he has built up over 30 years as a PPC them an MP going with him, a 3.4% Lib->Con swing turns the constituency blue again.
3-1 against this happening seems like value, especially as the area is known as much for its rural charm, retirees and brexitiness as it is for its excellent crabs."
Problem is that TBP will be standing in that constituency. This may save Libdems in this seat?
There are two questions about North Norfolk:
1. How much of the LD vote is a Norman Lamb personal vote? 2. How much will the "revoke" policy hurt them there?
My instinct - and it's just an instinct - is that the LDs will hold on this time. When popular* local LD incumbents step down, then very often their successor gets a term, such as Liz Lynne in Rochedale. You also shouldn't discount UNS. The LDs are likely to get almost twice their 2017 vote share, while the Tories are down. Finally, at the local elections this year, the LDs hammered the Conservatives. Quoting Norfolk News:
The Lib Dems won 30 seats on the council, with the Tories taking just six and independents claiming four. The results are in stark contrast to the 2015 election outcome, when the Conservatives won 33 out of what then a 48-seat council.
So, I'm going for LD hold (this time).
Edit to add: 3-1, though, is certainly not a bad price. I'd definitely be on the Tories at 5-1, probably 9-2. 3-1 is probably about right.
* at the time
Thank you this advice, which is always solid and particularly informed on the yellow side.
Even Rayner and Pidcock haven't scared everyone off yet!
However 6% lead per Survation should be enough. Don't forget in 2015 we were behing in most of the polls. And in 2017 only about 4 polls out of 200 had us 2% ahead or less so we won't be sure until the Exit Poll.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
But its between now and Thursday when nominations close that is important..after that Farage cant told.. the guns will be loaded and primed for the candidates he has put up
No, in that case it was @Byronic, me and @GIN1138 who pointed out that the dementia tax was a complete disaster for the Tories. Much to everyone else's amusement iirc.
Hopefully no Con manifesto screw ups this time?
Wonder when the manifestos will launch anyway? Perhaps next week?
Even Rayner and Pidcock haven't scared everyone off yet!
However 6% lead per Survation should be enough. Don't forget in 2015 we were behing in most of the polls. And in 2017 only about 4 polls out of 200 had us 2% ahead or less so we won't be sure until the Exit Poll.
Suspect this will put further pressure on Nigel to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates.
I'm not sure standing down Brexit candidates in Labour-leaning seats would necessarily benefit the Tories, though, because a fair proportion of their support will be drawn from Labour.
As far as I'm concerned the 'leave alliance' is getting approx 46-52% of the vote. I'll call it 48%, if the now restricted BXP get approx 5% then that has the Tories doing remarkably similar to last time round on 43%.
I don't understand how the Tories can poll sub 40% after Farage's announcement and when it filters through to the polling I'm not sure they will.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
A Tory majority is bound to drift from its current price of 1.06. No way will it monotonically tighten all the way from now until 12 December.
That is most seats in fairness. A Tory majority may well ebb and flow but I think it will go shorter than 1.5 somewhere in the campaign.
Thanks - you're right. I meant most seats. Given that the two main parties are both likely to land some effective blows, at some point the implied probability of the Tories winning most seats is bound to go below 94% even if it rises again.
Labour really struggling to clear the 30% hurdle, with BXP standing down they'll need close to 40% to have a chance of making more gains than the Tories
This is a defensive election for Labour. The best they can realistically do IMO is 2nd biggest party in a hung parliament - with enough seats to form a minority government with support of some sort from others. Even to achieve this is going to take a jump in support c.f. now PLUS some highly efficient anti-Tory tactical voting.
Baxter gives Con a majority of 28 based on that Survation. Would be what around 35 when Sinn Fein don't show up?
That would perfect for me. A big enough majority to get Brexit done. Not so big that Boris is able to go crazy and do what he likes (would YOU trust Boris with a landslide majority?) and Labour close enough to Con to still be in the game for 2024 if they get their act together.
I think a result somewhere around this is quite likely...
It depends whether it's just an outlier, or whether it indicates a genuine movement from Con to Lab in the first week of the campaign. If the latter, obviously there might be more movement in the next four weeks.
Suspect this will put further pressure on Nigel to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates.
I'm not sure standing down Brexit candidates in Labour-leaning seats would necessarily benefit the Tories, though, because a fair proportion of their support will be drawn from Labour.
I agree. Suspect Con have already got most of their BXP voters back. The remaining BXP voters are Lab and most of these will never vote Con anyway.
But still think Nigel will come under immense pressure between now and Thursday.
No, in that case it was @Byronic, me and @GIN1138 who pointed out that the dementia tax was a complete disaster for the Tories. Much to everyone else's amusement iirc.
Hopefully no Con manifesto screw ups this time?
Wonder when the manifestos will launch anyway? Perhaps next week?
I reports today labour next week (meeting saturday to finalise) LD probably next week, bxp not doing one and Tories delaying till end of month
Suspect this will put further pressure on Nigel to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates.
I'm not sure standing down Brexit candidates in Labour-leaning seats would necessarily benefit the Tories, though, because a fair proportion of their support will be drawn from Labour.
I agree, I think Farage has gone far enough. If he wants to stand down in up to 20 Tory target seats that is great but any more than that and it begins to look too much like a pact, too much like a stitch up and offends the wrong folk.
I'd be interested to know if parties can share data at a local level. If so perhaps the Tories have plenty of data on those folk who are pro Brexit but anti Tory they could offer to the BXP...
As far as I'm concerned the 'leave alliance' is getting approx 46-52% of the vote. I'll call it 48%, if the now restricted BXP get approx 5% then that has the Tories doing remarkably similar to last time round on 43%.
I don't understand how the Tories can poll sub 40% after Farage's announcement and when it filters through to the polling I'm not sure they will.
I think that's broadly right.
The Conservatives will like lose 1-2% on last time, and Labour 5-7%, with the major benificiaries being the LDs.
Inside that split, the Conservatives are doing less well in the South and better in the North. This suggests that the Conservatives will do better in terms of seat gains from Labour than UNS, while losing only a modest number of seats (perhaps half a dozen) to the LibDems in Deepest Remainia.
Even Rayner and Pidcock haven't scared everyone off yet!
However 6% lead per Survation should be enough. Don't forget in 2015 we were behing in most of the polls. And in 2017 only about 4 polls out of 200 had us 2% ahead or less so we won't be sure until the Exit Poll.
Will be a Big Bong for the exit poll Ave It!!!!
We CON won't be comfortable until then even if all the polls in the week before show CON 10% lead!
We won't be after then if the Exit poll says CON sub 300!
Well, perhaps. But I'm not convinced BXP standing down will make much of a difference to the BXP figure in the opinion polls. I would expect many of those answering BXP will continue to respond their intention to vote BXP right up until the minute when BXP isn't there on the list of candidates. At which point they will scrawl something offensive and stalk off. As we've said before, voters can't be shuffled around between parties like chess pieces [not sure this similie works but can't think of a better one].
Suspect this will put further pressure on Nigel to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates.
I'm not sure standing down Brexit candidates in Labour-leaning seats would necessarily benefit the Tories, though, because a fair proportion of their support will be drawn from Labour.
I agree. Suspect Con have already got most of their BXP voters back. The remaining BXP voters are Lab and most of these will never vote Con anyway.
But still think Nigel will come under immense pressure between now and Thursday.
If Brexit ends up standing just in non-Tory seats, it really will complicate the interpretation of the polls.
Labour really struggling to clear the 30% hurdle, with BXP standing down they'll need close to 40% to have a chance of making more gains than the Tories
This is a defensive election for Labour. The best they can realistically do IMO is 2nd biggest party in a hung parliament - with enough seats to form a minority government with support of some sort from others. Even to achieve this is going to take a jump in support c.f. now PLUS some highly efficient anti-Tory tactical voting.
272 + 49 SNP = JC4PM. The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.
Suspect this will put further pressure on Nigel to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates.
Whatever the dangers of an outlier poll/company, I still think it's a reasonable bet that the margin will narrow during the campaign unless Corbyn announces plans to nationalise Man U or Sainsbury's.
I've seen Electoral Calculus figs quoted on this one which give a Tory maj of 18 (among whom will be people who are signed up to the Withdrawal Agreement but still wouldn't countenance a cliff-edge end to the transition next year).
I think any poll lead in single figures as we approach polling day will feel distinctly sub-optimal to those in charge of underwear supplies at CCHQ
Suspect this will put further pressure on Nigel to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates.
I'm not sure standing down Brexit candidates in Labour-leaning seats would necessarily benefit the Tories, though, because a fair proportion of their support will be drawn from Labour.
I agree, I think Farage has gone far enough. If he wants to stand down in up to 20 Tory target seats that is great but any more than that and it begins to look too much like a pact, too much like a stitch up and offends the wrong folk.
I'd be interested to know if parties can share data at a local level. If so perhaps the Tories have plenty of data on those folk who are pro Brexit but anti Tory they could offer to the BXP...
I would think from a data protection point of view that would be impossible. In terms of information law, political opinions are classed as "sensitive," and have the highest level of protection.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
MaxPB said: "Tbh, if Bozza has a majority he won't need MV"
He wont NEED one - but Commons has to have one. I think. Can someone confirm?
My understanding (and I haven't checked the detail) was that the requirement would have been repealed by a clause in the new Withdrawal Bill had it progressed in the last parliament.
I heard a view expressed that an early show of support for the deal's principles may cut down on the awkward amendments later and therefore remain politically desirable.
But I tend to agree that a majority in parliament could cut through stuff like that if Boris desires it.
No, in that case it was @Byronic, me and @GIN1138 who pointed out that the dementia tax was a complete disaster for the Tories. Much to everyone else's amusement iirc.
Hopefully no Con manifesto screw ups this time?
Wonder when the manifestos will launch anyway? Perhaps next week?
I reports today labour next week (meeting saturday to finalise) LD probably next week, bxp not doing one and Tories delaying till end of month
Interesting.
Late Con manifesto reveal to limit the time for damage? Or because they have a big surprise up their sleeve (tax giveaways etc?)
Mr. Difficile, robot flippers can actually increase employment as the faster rate of production requires more waiting staff, exceeding the loss in kitchen staff.
The only time I've been to McDonalds in the last 10 years (a few months ago at Maidstone services on the M20, on the way back from Folkestone), I ordered and paid at a computer terminal. The 'waiting staff' swapped my receipt for my bag of food. I expect that process could also be automated.
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.
Is the election not postponed if any candidate dies?
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.
I think if there is a death it is postponed and run as a by election in the new parliament, cf Skipton and Ripon in 2010?
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
It's possible that Farage's pacts with Bunter will serve to push more Tory Remainers into the arms of Lib-Lab?
No, in that case it was @Byronic, me and @GIN1138 who pointed out that the dementia tax was a complete disaster for the Tories. Much to everyone else's amusement iirc.
Hopefully no Con manifesto screw ups this time?
Wonder when the manifestos will launch anyway? Perhaps next week?
I reports today labour next week (meeting saturday to finalise) LD probably next week, bxp not doing one and Tories delaying till end of month
Interesting.
Late Con manifesto reveal to limit the time for damage? Or because they have a big surprise up their sleeve (tax giveaways etc?)
By 10th December, Labour's spending commitments will have reached £900bn per annum. Which gives Boris the fiscal wriggle room to offer simply to abolish all forms of taxation.
Well, perhaps. But I'm not convinced BXP standing down will make much of a difference to the BXP figure in the opinion polls. I would expect many of those answering BXP will continue to respond their intention to vote BXP right up until the minute when BXP isn't there on the list of candidates. At which point they will scrawl something offensive and stalk off. As we've said before, voters can't be shuffled around between parties like chess pieces [not sure this similie works but can't think of a better one].
Yes.
But with one caveat. Where is UKIP standing? And will BXP voters go UKIP if that is the only "true Brexit" option available when they're in the polling booth?
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.
Is the election not postponed if any candidate dies?
The practicality of the nomination deadline is that councils need a moment where the list stands still and they can get the ballot papers printed etc.
So yes, in any other circumstance, a candidate "withdrawing" after that point would still appear on the paper... though I guess you could make a song and dance on social media about "don't vote for me".
Does the fact that 22% are going BXP / UKIP not suggest that in certain seats Tories will not make the gains needed to flip the seat, and whilst Lab vote share may go down in many seats so will Con, and it won't be enough to push over the finish line?
Depends what those voters choose to do when faced with the forced choice between Johnson and Corbyn.
Your new profile picture... is this what you think is going to happen after Brexit?
I think Johnson's deal gives it a push in that direction, but it's mainly a statement of my support for that outcome. No border on the island of Ireland, and no border on the island of Britain either.
Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.
We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.
Well, perhaps. But I'm not convinced BXP standing down will make much of a difference to the BXP figure in the opinion polls. I would expect many of those answering BXP will continue to respond their intention to vote BXP right up until the minute when BXP isn't there on the list of candidates. At which point they will scrawl something offensive and stalk off. As we've said before, voters can't be shuffled around between parties like chess pieces [not sure this similie works but can't think of a better one].
Yes.
But with one caveat. Where is UKIP standing? And will BXP voters go UKIP if that is the only "true Brexit" option available when they're in the polling booth?
Are they standing anywhere? They have no leader and no money and no donors
I think the betting markets have over-reacted to the Brexit Party decision and ignored the slight shift to Labour in the polls.
The BXP decision obviously doesn't affect the number of Labour seats. The BXP were going to stand in all Labour seats and they still are. Standing aside in Tory seats is only going to affect LD gains. Labour weren't going to make any Tory gains anyway.
I've modelled the effect. If 50% of the BXP votes switches to Tory in Tory/LD marginals, the LDs fail to gain four seats. Chippenham, Guildford, Yeovil and Eastleigh. If 100% of BXP votes switch to the Tories (it won't) then LDs fail to gain eight seats.
At the same time, there has been a small movement to Labour in the polls.
The movement over the last five polls is: Con 37.9% (+0.2) Lab 27.5% (+1.1) LD 16.3% (-0.3) BXP 9.6 (-0.4)
Yes, I remember their CEO Damian Lyons being rounded mocked on Daily Politics or some such for his forecast of a hung parliament, by Debbie Mattinson and other polling veterans.
Well, perhaps. But I'm not convinced BXP standing down will make much of a difference to the BXP figure in the opinion polls. I would expect many of those answering BXP will continue to respond their intention to vote BXP right up until the minute when BXP isn't there on the list of candidates. At which point they will scrawl something offensive and stalk off. As we've said before, voters can't be shuffled around between parties like chess pieces [not sure this similie works but can't think of a better one].
Yes.
But with one caveat. Where is UKIP standing? And will BXP voters go UKIP if that is the only "true Brexit" option available when they're in the polling booth?
Good point. I'd almost forgotten they still existed.
On another subject, when was the last election that the governing party(/parties) increased their number of seats over last time? 1983? I'm not counting 2010 as an answer as the Con/Lib total went down even if the Con total went up. And when was the last time we had a mid-term election and the government increased it's seats? Has it ever happened? I'm not saying it can't happen - but there's not much in the way of positive precedents to look back on for the government.
272 + 49 SNP = JC4PM. The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.
You must await the "fully costed manifesto".
272, you think? I'm thinking a few less could still be made to work.
Begs an interesting question, if that were to happen, Cons most seats but Labour form a government - who has then "won" the great Christmas election of 2019?
Well, perhaps. But I'm not convinced BXP standing down will make much of a difference to the BXP figure in the opinion polls. I would expect many of those answering BXP will continue to respond their intention to vote BXP right up until the minute when BXP isn't there on the list of candidates. At which point they will scrawl something offensive and stalk off. As we've said before, voters can't be shuffled around between parties like chess pieces [not sure this similie works but can't think of a better one].
I can agree with that. I think seat predictions this time around is going to be super difficult.
272 + 49 SNP = JC4PM. The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.
You must await the "fully costed manifesto".
272, you think? I'm thinking a few less could still be made to work.
Begs an interesting question, if that were to happen, Cons most seats but Labour form a government - who has then "won" the great Christmas election of 2019?
It feels to me that we're all losers. Never in the history of universal suffrage will so many votes have been cast with so so little hope for the future.
Model updated with latest Survation poll (models runs off these polls - also updated Welsh and Scottish polls while I was at it). Back in hung parliament territory even with BXP not standing in Con seats. CON 320; LAB 234: LD 23; BXP 0; GRN 1; SNP 50; PC 4. If Survation are still the Gold Standard then Tories should be worried.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
The chances of Labour making 60-ish gains and forming a majority Corbyn government are nil.
The chances of Labour making a dozen gains, and the SNP the same, are only very slightly greater, and even if they did I suspect that the SNP would frustrate much of the Labour spending programme.
The chances of Labour stemming their losses, such that Tory losses to the SNP and the Lib Dems are sufficient to force Johnson from office are very slim, but in that case the Lib Dems would have a veto on Labour's political programme and would surely prevent most of it from being implemented. They will do only enough to ensure that such a government survives to hold a referendum. They won't be voting to nationalise the water companies, etc.
If Corbyn becomes Prime Minister he will be the weakest Prime Minister in history. His freedom to manoeuvre will be extremely limited.
I still expect him to lose dozens of seats and test the 200 barrier though. Seventy-five Liberal Democrats could be needed to prevent PM Johnson, and there's not much sign of them.
Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?
Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?
Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
The chances of Labour making 60-ish gains and forming a majority Corbyn government are nil.
The chances of Labour making a dozen gains, and the SNP the same, are only very slightly greater, and even if they did I suspect that the SNP would frustrate much of the Labour spending programme.
The chances of Labour stemming their losses, such that Tory losses to the SNP and the Lib Dems are sufficient to force Johnson from office are very slim, but in that case the Lib Dems would have a veto on Labour's political programme and would surely prevent most of it from being implemented. They will do only enough to ensure that such a government survives to hold a referendum. They won't be voting to nationalise the water companies, etc.
If Corbyn becomes Prime Minister he will be the weakest Prime Minister in history. His freedom to manoeuvre will be extremely limited.
I still expect him to lose dozens of seats and test the 200 barrier though. Seventy-five Liberal Democrats could be needed to prevent PM Johnson, and there's not much sign of them.
Corbyn could well win a majority. Tories are far too complacent, Momentum will have a great turnout operation, and British Left Wing voters do not give a damn about their Jewish compatriots.
It feels like the LibDems need to do something or say something to get in the news, especially if the court cases fall and they aren’t in the main debates.
They must have something eye catching in their manifesto, surely?
As far as I'm concerned the 'leave alliance' is getting approx 46-52% of the vote. I'll call it 48%, if the now restricted BXP get approx 5% then that has the Tories doing remarkably similar to last time round on 43%.
I don't understand how the Tories can poll sub 40% after Farage's announcement and when it filters through to the polling I'm not sure they will.
I think that's broadly right.
The Conservatives will like lose 1-2% on last time, and Labour 5-7%, with the major benificiaries being the LDs.
Inside that split, the Conservatives are doing less well in the South and better in the North. This suggests that the Conservatives will do better in terms of seat gains from Labour than UNS, while losing only a modest number of seats (perhaps half a dozen) to the LibDems in Deepest Remainia.
It could be GE2015 redux (just with a slightly different seat mix, and a better LD and slightly worse SNP performance) which would no doubt cause much amusement.
The trend seems to be Con moves with BXP and Lab moves with LD. Whether that is squeeze, and we should assume tactical voting on top, or has tactical voting baked in, pffft, who knows?
But I think Labour will continue to make gains as the campaign goes, it's just where the ceiling on their numbers lie.
It feels like the LibDems need to do something or say something to get in the news, especially if the court cases fall and they aren’t in the main debates.
They must have something eye catching in their manifesto, surely?
Model updated with latest Survation poll (models runs off these polls - also updated Welsh and Scottish polls while I was at it). Back in hung parliament territory even with BXP not standing in Con seats. CON 320; LAB 234: LD 23; BXP 0; GRN 1; SNP 50; PC 4. If Survation are still the Gold Standard then Tories should be worried.
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
The chances of Labour making 60-ish gains and forming a majority Corbyn government are nil.
The chances of Labour making a dozen gains, and the SNP the same, are only very slightly greater, and even if they did I suspect that the SNP would frustrate much of the Labour spending programme.
The chances of Labour stemming their losses, such that Tory losses to the SNP and the Lib Dems are sufficient to force Johnson from office are very slim, but in that case the Lib Dems would have a veto on Labour's political programme and would surely prevent most of it from being implemented. They will do only enough to ensure that such a government survives to hold a referendum. They won't be voting to nationalise the water companies, etc.
If Corbyn becomes Prime Minister he will be the weakest Prime Minister in history. His freedom to manoeuvre will be extremely limited.
I still expect him to lose dozens of seats and test the 200 barrier though. Seventy-five Liberal Democrats could be needed to prevent PM Johnson, and there's not much sign of them.
Corbyn could well win a majority. Tories are far too complacent, Momentum will have a great turnout operation, and British Left Wing voters do not give a damn about their Jewish compatriots.
Comments
The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.
They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.
The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.
https://twitter.com/BristolUni/status/1194177756667531264
If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.
https://twitter.com/labour_noutes/status/1192067307868168192
1. How much of the LD vote is a Norman Lamb personal vote?
2. How much will the "revoke" policy hurt them there?
My instinct - and it's just an instinct - is that the LDs will hold on this time. When popular* local LD incumbents step down, then very often their successor gets a term, such as Liz Lynne in Rochedale. You also shouldn't discount UNS. The LDs are likely to get almost twice their 2017 vote share, while the Tories are down. Finally, at the local elections this year, the LDs hammered the Conservatives. Quoting Norfolk News:
The Lib Dems won 30 seats on the council, with the Tories taking just six and independents claiming four. The results are in stark contrast to the 2015 election outcome, when the Conservatives won 33 out of what then a 48-seat council.
So, I'm going for LD hold (this time).
Edit to add: 3-1, though, is certainly not a bad price. I'd definitely be on the Tories at 5-1, probably 9-2. 3-1 is probably about right.
* at the time
I might have a try for Heywood & Middleton. The BXP candidate is the ex-Labour ex-Council leader, who might be able to prise away more labour than tory voters..
This, plus the swings shown in the recent regional polling gives the tories an outside chance. 12/5.
In deference to the incumbent, who is supporting responsible Gambling UK, I won't be betting the farm on it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50391439
As things stand they will defend 300 of those 317 seats IMO. Yes the remain vote will coalesce behind Corbyn gradually but we are a long way in the polls from Tories having to defend seats from Labour.
That would perfect for me. A big enough majority to get Brexit done. Not so big that Boris is able to go crazy and do what he likes (would YOU trust Boris with a landslide majority?) and Labour close enough to Con to still be in the game for 2024 if they get their act together.
I think a result somewhere around this is quite likely...
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1193900986500337665
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-50389997
The equivalent YG is over 3 weeks out of date
Even Rayner and Pidcock haven't scared everyone off yet!
However 6% lead per Survation should be enough. Don't forget in 2015 we were behing in most of the polls. And in 2017 only about 4 polls out of 200 had us 2% ahead or less so we won't be sure until the Exit Poll.
Wonder when the manifestos will launch anyway? Perhaps next week?
I don't understand how the Tories can poll sub 40% after Farage's announcement and when it filters through to the polling I'm not sure they will.
I now confidently predict the LDs will either get either less than 14% or more than 18%.
But still think Nigel will come under immense pressure between now and Thursday.
I'd be interested to know if parties can share data at a local level. If so perhaps the Tories have plenty of data on those folk who are pro Brexit but anti Tory they could offer to the BXP...
The Conservatives will like lose 1-2% on last time, and Labour 5-7%, with the major benificiaries being the LDs.
Inside that split, the Conservatives are doing less well in the South and better in the North. This suggests that the Conservatives will do better in terms of seat gains from Labour than UNS, while losing only a modest number of seats (perhaps half a dozen) to the LibDems in Deepest Remainia.
We won't be after then if the Exit poll says CON sub 300!
But I'm not convinced BXP standing down will make much of a difference to the BXP figure in the opinion polls. I would expect many of those answering BXP will continue to respond their intention to vote BXP right up until the minute when BXP isn't there on the list of candidates. At which point they will scrawl something offensive and stalk off. As we've said before, voters can't be shuffled around between parties like chess pieces [not sure this similie works but can't think of a better one].
The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.
I've seen Electoral Calculus figs quoted on this one which give a Tory maj of 18 (among whom will be people who are signed up to the Withdrawal Agreement but still wouldn't countenance a cliff-edge end to the transition next year).
I think any poll lead in single figures as we approach polling day will feel distinctly sub-optimal to those in charge of underwear supplies at CCHQ
Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.
The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.
I heard a view expressed that an early show of support for the deal's principles may cut down on the awkward amendments later and therefore remain politically desirable.
But I tend to agree that a majority in parliament could cut through stuff like that if Boris desires it.
Late Con manifesto reveal to limit the time for damage? Or because they have a big surprise up their sleeve (tax giveaways etc?)
But it is early days.
But with one caveat. Where is UKIP standing? And will BXP voters go UKIP if that is the only "true Brexit" option available when they're in the polling booth?
The practicality of the nomination deadline is that councils need a moment where the list stands still and they can get the ballot papers printed etc.
So yes, in any other circumstance, a candidate "withdrawing" after that point would still appear on the paper... though I guess you could make a song and dance on social media about "don't vote for me".
That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.
We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.
The BXP decision obviously doesn't affect the number of Labour seats. The BXP were going to stand in all Labour seats and they still are.
Standing aside in Tory seats is only going to affect LD gains. Labour weren't going to make any Tory gains anyway.
I've modelled the effect. If 50% of the BXP votes switches to Tory in Tory/LD marginals, the LDs fail to gain four seats. Chippenham, Guildford, Yeovil and Eastleigh. If 100% of BXP votes switch to the Tories (it won't) then LDs fail to gain eight seats.
At the same time, there has been a small movement to Labour in the polls.
The movement over the last five polls is:
Con 37.9% (+0.2)
Lab 27.5% (+1.1)
LD 16.3% (-0.3)
BXP 9.6 (-0.4)
Lab don't lose as many seats.
Effect on seats is
Con 319
Lab 224
LD 34
SNP 48
Changes are shown here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
Yes, I remember their CEO Damian Lyons being rounded mocked on Daily Politics or some such for his forecast of a hung parliament, by Debbie Mattinson and other polling veterans.
Lyons had the last laugh of course.
On another subject, when was the last election that the governing party(/parties) increased their number of seats over last time? 1983? I'm not counting 2010 as an answer as the Con/Lib total went down even if the Con total went up. And when was the last time we had a mid-term election and the government increased it's seats? Has it ever happened?
I'm not saying it can't happen - but there's not much in the way of positive precedents to look back on for the government.
Apparently a black swan has been sighted swimming down a flooded street in South Yorkshire.
It took Bozo 5 days to see it.
272, you think? I'm thinking a few less could still be made to work.
Begs an interesting question, if that were to happen, Cons most seats but Labour form a government - who has then "won" the great Christmas election of 2019?
The chances of Labour making a dozen gains, and the SNP the same, are only very slightly greater, and even if they did I suspect that the SNP would frustrate much of the Labour spending programme.
The chances of Labour stemming their losses, such that Tory losses to the SNP and the Lib Dems are sufficient to force Johnson from office are very slim, but in that case the Lib Dems would have a veto on Labour's political programme and would surely prevent most of it from being implemented. They will do only enough to ensure that such a government survives to hold a referendum. They won't be voting to nationalise the water companies, etc.
If Corbyn becomes Prime Minister he will be the weakest Prime Minister in history. His freedom to manoeuvre will be extremely limited.
I still expect him to lose dozens of seats and test the 200 barrier though. Seventy-five Liberal Democrats could be needed to prevent PM Johnson, and there's not much sign of them.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
They must have something eye catching in their manifesto, surely?
But I think Labour will continue to make gains as the campaign goes, it's just where the ceiling on their numbers lie.
Con 314; Lab 228; LD 34; BXP 0