To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
If you want a change in the standards of decency in this country, then sure, put an anti-semite in Number 10.... If the idea appalls you, don't vote Labour, whatever your view on Brexit.
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
Roger, You just have to look and listen, You are patently not doing this or you would realise how anti-Semitic Corbyn..
I am very cautious over this election and it could see Boris with a modest majority but also as the largest party checkmated by a remain majority leading to a referendum in summer 2020
I hear this morning that Boris is going to paint an optismitic can do narrative promising brexit will happen on the 31st December and on the 1st January the domestic policies on the NHS, policing, education and the rest will receive the full attention of his government.
I also understand he intends campaigning alongside Carrie bringing a whole new media scrum and shining a spotlight on her
Now, I maintain that the only way Boris wins is for the public to see his message that new years day is freedom from the EU and that his campaign with Carrie captures the public
I have no idea if it will succeed, but if it does that is his way to a 5 year working majority.
This GE is being fought over Brexit but it is more than that for Boris, he wants a full term premiership.
The labour unity is holding? As expected, all those 'this is not good enough Jeremy' types were just mouthing words and will be as loyal in getting him to be PM as Abbot would. As will those sating they wont vote labour, as the prospect of a Boris win nears
Amazing how many constituencies on wiki have only a couple of declared candidates so far. There's going to be some manic activity filling those in during the coming days.
If your vote isn't returned by 10 pm the law is crystal clear. It can't and won't be counted. Once election results are declared there is no way of overturning them save for an Election Court ruling.
From the Electoral Commission website - 'Returning your ballot paper
Once you've got it, mark your vote on the ballot paper and make sure you send it back so that it arrives by 10pm on election day. If it arrives later than this, your vote won't be counted.
You can hand your postal ballot in at your local council on the day if you’re not able to send it back by post in advance
Under English law and the posting rule a contract is made as soon as a letter is posted, so provided a postal vote has been sent and postmarked before polling day it must be counted under the law as a contract has been made with the Electoral Commission to count that vote.
If not the Electoral Commission can be sued for beach of contract under English common law for failing to uphold its offer of a vote in an election accepted from the time of postage.
This is utterly and completely wrong. UK electoral law is utterly clear. Your postal vote needs to arrive by 10 pm on polling day. If it doesn't it isn't and legally can't be counted. Even if that wasn't true, which it is, counting late votes isn't a remedy available to the general courts because overturning election results can only be done by Election Courts.
Hyufd seems to look at one area of law and not consider if another area of it has different rules which take precedence. I'm no lawyer but I've seen plenty of mon lawyers find a line here or a line there and confidently state it destroys someone else's case, they dont consider the wider context or notice other more Important rules in their eagerness.
I don't think he's right even on the narrow postal point.
But he's certainly wrong on the electoral point - it would be unheard of for a count to be delayed so the RO can have a look at what comes in the next post - HY's proposition is so ridiculous as to hardly be worth debate. That he clings to it regardless says a lot.
I can see that for life-long but now disillusioned Labour voters, it gives them a continuing involvement in politics. But it is an anti-Labour vote, rather than being for anything. Nasty weather - they probably stay home and watch the telly. Does Labour no good, does the Tories no harm.
For former Tories who want Brexit - voting for the Brexit Party also gives them a continuing involvement in politics. But how many of them want a really, really pure form of Brexit - one that risks no Brexit at all? With added side-salad of Corbyn. And with added far-right bedfollows, for whom BNP to BXP is just a letter change.
I suspect there are still about 8% of the electorate who have to make a choice: BXP or Tory? Sure, Farage is a firebrand preacher. But Boris is more like a country Church of England vicar, who will see them safely off to Brexit heaven. He's even quite relaxed about whether you pay attention to most of the 10 Commandments.
Late surge? BXP to Conservative is where I'll be putting my money.
Certainly possible - late swing for definite in 2017 and with the build up to this election I expect a lot to emerge as the campaigns go on.
As for Brexit Party fortunes, it depends on how angry people are. For disillusioned Labour voters whilst many recognise the damage done to them by Thatcher many also now recognise the lack of healing given to them by Blair. Thats where the "leave Europe and manna rains down from heaven" message has got to them, and having broken their habit of voting Labour they're angry that they haven't been allowed their manna. Of course people will stay home, question remains how many will turn out and in which numbers.
And Tories? For them to settle on the Boris deal means eating a lot of humble pie. I know the spin line is "get Brexit done" but they know that this is only the start, and its a "Brexit" where having imperiled the union we are still tied into Europe for a period of what could be many years. The only true way to "get Brexit done" is no deal, which is why so many of them back that option. Unless Farage goes quiet or there is some scandal, he will be visible and loud singing that very simple siren song.
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
If you want a change in the standards of decency in this country, then sure, put an anti-semite in Number 10.... If the idea appalls you, don't vote Labour, whatever your view on Brexit.
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
Roger, You just have to look and listen, You are patently not doing this or you would realise how anti-Semitic Corbyn..
Corbyn is anti-Israel rather than anti-Jewish but in a sense that is academic because the CCHQ spin team will be targeting Jewish voters on Facebook with the antisemitic Corbyn message, and at the same time Labour will be sending the Islamophobic and racist Boris messages to Muslim and BAME voters.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
Roger, You just have to look and listen, You are patently not doing this or you would realise how anti-Semitic Corbyn..
Corbyn is anti-Israel rather than anti-Jewish but in a sense that is academic because the CCHQ spin team will be targeting Jewish voters on Facebook with the antisemitic Corbyn message, and at the same time Labour will be sending the Islamophobic and racist Boris messages to Muslim and BAME voters.
Whilst its sad that both main parties have racism problems, they reflect the wider country. A significant part of the Brexit vote was unease about changing communities and ultimately race and immigration is a key part of that as it has been for millenia. For all the people tutting about Labour anti-semitism / Tory islamophobia there are Gillian Duffy style voters nodding along in agreement. Not overtly racist. Just an underlying tone of prejudice against anyone who isn't like them
The real fun and games don't begin now, of course. They begin on Friday 13th of December, when the Tories fall just short of a majority and it quickly becomes apparent that forming a viable Government is impossible.
Nobody will work with the Conservatives, and a badly weakened Labour will be hit with unacceptable and/or contradictory demands (I'm especially looking forward to the part where the SNP demands Indyref2 and the Lib Dems veto that idea, and block Corbyn as Prime Minister for good measure.) About the only thing the Remain Alliance will be able to agree on will be the necessity to revoke A50 in panic when we get to late January and the EU27 refuse yet another extension.
Where this leaves us come the March 2020 General Election, who can say?
In Spain they're having two elections this year. In fact the second one is coming up on 10th November, and that looks like it'll be another stalemate.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
The Tories can now win back Eastbourne then, given Eastbourne voted 57% Leave
This comment is a good illustration of why you are in big trouble.
Really? I mean, I think HYUFD is on the optimistic end of the Tory spectrum, but a former leave supporting ex-Lib Dem incumbent running on a stop Brexit platform seems to be the sort of thing that should be good for the Tories.
The big question is, will the Lib Dems put up a candidate?
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
If you want a change in the standards of decency in this country, then sure, put an anti-semite in Number 10.... If the idea appalls you, don't vote Labour, whatever your view on Brexit.
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
Roger, You just have to look and listen, You are patently not doing this or you would realise how anti-Semitic Corbyn..
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
Roger, You just have to look and listen, You are patently not doing this or you would realise how anti-Semitic Corbyn..
Corbyn is anti-Israel rather than anti-Jewish but in a sense that is academic because the CCHQ spin team will be targeting Jewish voters on Facebook with the antisemitic Corbyn message, and at the same time Labour will be sending the Islamophobic and racist Boris messages to Muslim and BAME voters.
Whilst its sad that both main parties have racism problems, they reflect the wider country. A significant part of the Brexit vote was unease about changing communities and ultimately race and immigration is a key part of that as it has been for millenia. For all the people tutting about Labour anti-semitism / Tory islamophobia there are Gillian Duffy style voters nodding along in agreement. Not overtly racist. Just an underlying tone of prejudice against anyone who isn't like them
I don't think that Corbyn is an anti-Semite. I don't think that Boris is an Islamophobe. I don't think that Gillian Duffy is prejudiced. (And I am no fan of all three).
It has became very easy to tar politicians we don't like, Malcolm Tucker-style, with these labels.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
The Tories can now win back Eastbourne then, given Eastbourne voted 57% Leave
This comment is a good illustration of why you are in big trouble.
Your reply a good reason why arrogant diehard Remainers are in trouble
No you misunderstand (I think).
Of course it's possible to attain unity by booting out everyone with whom you disagree. The ever-decreasing circle of true believers becomes its own self-fulfilling prophecy.
To win elections you have to reach out, not in. You think you're on safe ground by appealing to leavers to win this election. So let me spell this out more directly.
The Conservatives need remainers to win an outright majority in this country. The Johnson-Cummings leadership are doing all they can to achieve the opposite.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
The Tories can now win back Eastbourne then, given Eastbourne voted 57% Leave
This comment is a good illustration of why you are in big trouble.
The danger is epitomised by one of @DavidL's posts earlier. Along the lines of "those who are sick to death of Brexit will vote Cons to get it done". Um, no. Those who are sick to death of Brexit will look to their usual party lines and allegiance, imo.
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
If you want a change in the standards of decency in this country, then sure, put an anti-semite in Number 10.... If the idea appalls you, don't vote Labour, whatever your view on Brexit.
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
Roger, You just have to look and listen, You are patently not doing this or you would realise how anti-Semitic Corbyn..
I don't think that Corbyn is an anti-Semite. I don't think that Boris is an Islamophobe. I don't think that Gillian Duffy is prejudiced. (And I am no fan of all three).
It has became very easy to tar politicians we don't like, Malcolm Tucker-style, with these labels.
I agree - most people are subtle mixtures, and actual "I hate people of X group" is actually VERY rare nowadays. Labelling other people is lazy shorthand.
The Conservatives need remainers to win an outright majority in this country. The Johnson-Cummings leadership are doing all they can to achieve the opposite.
Is that what Boris is doing?
It looks to me as though as long as people support his deal, they are being readmitted (e.g., Rudd today).
Boris is not stupid. He realises to win he needs the votes of people who wanted to Remain, but think we should respect the referendum result. I think that is a larger constituency than people who want to Revoke.
Social media campaigning. The Telegraph has reported on Conservative and Labour social media "under the radar" campaigning.
As another General Election looms, the battle for No10 will fundamentally be fought and won online. In a five-part special series, we will investigate the tactics and dark arts being used by all of the parties to shape the outcome.
The Cambridge poll has allowed me to compare my tactical model's prediction for Cambridge with the constituency poll, and fine-tune my assumptions.
Poll/My model
LibDem 39/48 Lab 30/35 Green 12/1 Con 10/8 BXP 7/8
My model assumes that 40% of the Green vote goes tactically to Labour and 40% tactically to LD. Clearly in this poll, there has been no squeeze on the Green vote yet.
The changes I have made to my model are: Additive/Multiplicative 80/20 rather than 75/25 20% of BXP vote tactically for Tories
Absolutely. I just think that it is sad that the Labour Party doesn't even bother to deny its anti-semitic associations or the fact that its leader is anti-semitic. But you are right. At 300,000 Jews in the general population, there is little electoral damage to be suffered by being avowedly anti-semitic.
And Tories? For them to settle on the Boris deal means eating a lot of humble pie. I know the spin line is "get Brexit done" but they know that this is only the start, and its a "Brexit" where having imperiled the union we are still tied into Europe for a period of what could be many years. The only true way to "get Brexit done" is no deal, which is why so many of them back that option. Unless Farage goes quiet or there is some scandal, he will be visible and loud singing that very simple siren song.
Not sure Brexit has done more to imperil the union - the faultlines were there and the pressure for divorce has not gone away just because they tried to "have another go at it for the sake of the kids". Any excuse - ANY - for the SNP to have another seperation will be clung to. Mostly their opportunism is just amusing, but with Brexit you have a Scotsman with a grievance.
Though, ironically, the shit-show of the Brexit endgame may give many independence-minded Scots cause to step back. The break-away from the UK will be traumatic and on many areas, the SNP's promise of sunlit uplands will sound a familar, hollow Brexiteer refrain.
The only real long-term chance to keep the union together is for Brexit to be a success - and for the beneifts to be obviously shared. Even if it is, the timeline may be too long in delivery. I don't doubt that Boris believes the Union has merit and should be held together. To do so, he is going to need to take some vey bold steps. A post-Brexit massive expansion of free-trade areas in Scotland and NI - perhaps up to embracing the entire countries - might be a gesture that would do the job. For now. But that would require a price to be paid by England and Wales.
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
Roger, You just have to look and listen, You are patently not doing this or you would realise how anti-Semitic Corbyn..
Corbyn is anti-Israel rather than anti-Jewish but in a sense that is academic because the CCHQ spin team will be targeting Jewish voters on Facebook with the antisemitic Corbyn message, and at the same time Labour will be sending the Islamophobic and racist Boris messages to Muslim and BAME voters.
Whilst its sad that both main parties have racism problems, they reflect the wider country. A significant part of the Brexit vote was unease about changing communities and ultimately race and immigration is a key part of that as it has been for millenia. For all the people tutting about Labour anti-semitism / Tory islamophobia there are Gillian Duffy style voters nodding along in agreement. Not overtly racist. Just an underlying tone of prejudice against anyone who isn't like them
I don't think that Corbyn is an anti-Semite. I don't think that Boris is an Islamophobe. I don't think that Gillian Duffy is prejudiced. (And I am no fan of all three).
It has became very easy to tar politicians we don't like, Malcolm Tucker-style, with these labels.
Language is a problem here, different people interpret these words differently.
Corbyn clearly gives the benefit of the doubt to people on the left with anti semitic views which overlap with anti Israeli views. Does that make him anti semitic himself?
Johnson clearly is fine with using language that is inflammatory to most muslims. Does that make him anti islamic or a plain direct speaker?
Duffy is a human and human emotions are heavily driven by prejudice, that is how the mind works. We are all prejudiced to some extent. What we should ask of each other is not to have no prejudices, but to be open, mindful and inclusive which will reduce those prejudices significantly to the extent that they are not even noticed.
Just seen the following missive from Lib Dems to members "We’ve hit the ground running. Over the last two months we’ve knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors, delivered millions of leaflets and letters and run the largest online campaign of any political party. We’re the fastest growing political party in the country". No leaflets or canvassing here, nothing at all from anyone.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
In no sense is Grieve any longer a Conservative. Citing him as an example of "disunity" is disingenuous/mischief.
My father was a constituency chairman and I grew up surrounded by Conservatives. I worked for a very prominent Tory grandee MP.
Don't lecture me on your party.
You're split. Deeply. Viscerally.
I think you are projecting. I know the Brexit Libdem is now changing but % wise he was a greater split than the Tories have. There are some conservatives now who would have previously been centrist europhiles who may not feel part of the current Toy party coalition, but equally before and more in line with members rather than voters there were a significant number of eurosceptic MPs on the fringe.
All parties are coalitions of aligned interest and have ups and downs - 12 years Brown took over and the idea the far left would have run Labour Party for 4 years now would have been astounding.
Absolutely. I just think that it is sad that the Labour Party doesn't even bother to deny its anti-semitic associations or the fact that its leader is anti-semitic. But you are right. At 300,000 Jews in the general population, there is little electoral damage to be suffered by being avowedly anti-semitic.
Corbyn is anti-Israel not anti-Jewish. But as I pointed out earlier in this thread, whatever the truth of the matter, CCHQ will be bombarding Jewish voters with the antisemitism slur and Labour will do the same with Boris and Islamophobia and racism; and Plaid Cymru will remind their voters what Boris said about Welsh.
This was my comprehensive candidates list for the 2015 election. I'm going to set up a new one for this election. It's a lot of work, which is why I had a break from doing it in 2017.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
The Cambridge poll has allowed me to compare my tactical model's prediction for Cambridge with the constituency poll, and fine-tune my assumptions.
Poll/My model
LibDem 39/48 Lab 30/35 Green 12/1 Con 10/8 BXP 7/8
My model assumes that 40% of the Green vote goes tactically to Labour and 40% tactically to LD. Clearly in this poll, there has been no squeeze on the Green vote yet.
The changes I have made to my model are: Additive/Multiplicative 80/20 rather than 75/25 20% of BXP vote tactically for Tories
The amended model gives Con 314 Lab 220 LD 45
Thanks, I really welcome these posts with that level of detail.
Absolutely. I just think that it is sad that the Labour Party doesn't even bother to deny its anti-semitic associations or the fact that its leader is anti-semitic. But you are right. At 300,000 Jews in the general population, there is little electoral damage to be suffered by being avowedly anti-semitic.
Corbyn is anti-Israel not anti-Jewish. But as I pointed out earlier in this thread, whatever the truth of the matter, CCHQ will be bombarding Jewish voters with the antisemitism slur and Labour will do the same with Boris and Islamophobia and racism; and Plaid Cymru will remind their voters what Boris said about Welsh.
Yes. Except Corbyn is anti-Jewish also. Because Israel is a Jewish state and he despises it, ergo, he is anti-Jewish. Anti-semitic together with his friends. But as you say, and as @Streeter notes, few care. That prominent Israeli Margaret Hodge, perhaps. A few others. Otherwise it plays the right thing to the right people. And for that reason CCHQ won't be making much of it.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
Just seen the following missive from Lib Dems to members "We’ve hit the ground running. Over the last two months we’ve knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors, delivered millions of leaflets and letters and run the largest online campaign of any political party. We’re the fastest growing political party in the country". No leaflets or canvassing here, nothing at all from anyone.
Wow, so our political turkeys finally decided to vote for Christmas! Finally this wretched and indecisive Parliament gets put out of its misery. Good luck to those standing again, they’ll be needing it,
This will make me hugely unpopular on here, I know, but Parliament has been doing its job, which has been to scrutinise what the government has put forward. It didn’t like May’s deal and voted against. It voted in favour of Boris’s deal and was then denied further scrutiny by the PM. Infuriating as it may be to those who think Parliament should be a rubber stamp, Parliament has accurately reflected the divisions in the country. Rather than seek to persuade the Tories have sought to bully. The Tories’ contempt for Parliament deserves condemnation - not reward - at the ballot box.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tories get a majority as a result of peddling the same old myth - that this will get Brexit done. It won’t - the next big issue will be what happens at the end of the transition period. And it would serve them right if they find themselves having to confront the consequences of their own myth-making. But I hope they don’t. At the best of times the Tories with a large majority are unbearably arrogant. And these are not the best of times.
Just seen the following missive from Lib Dems to members "We’ve hit the ground running. Over the last two months we’ve knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors, delivered millions of leaflets and letters and run the largest online campaign of any political party. We’re the fastest growing political party in the country". No leaflets or canvassing here, nothing at all from anyone.
.
I received the following from UKIP to UKIP supporters just before the election was confirmed:
Nigel finishes by saying: Can any Brexiteer inclined to support this Treaty [Johnson's Deal] honestly say that it amounts to a proper Brexit? A Clean-Break Brexit remains the best deal for Britain. We need a General Election for a Leaver alliance to win a big majority and make Brexit a reality.
He is knocking the Deal as not real Brexit but he also speaks of a "Leaver alliance" so his strategy is not clear to me.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
Absolutely. I just think that it is sad that the Labour Party doesn't even bother to deny its anti-semitic associations or the fact that its leader is anti-semitic. But you are right. At 300,000 Jews in the general population, there is little electoral damage to be suffered by being avowedly anti-semitic.
Corbyn is anti-Israel not anti-Jewish. But as I pointed out earlier in this thread, whatever the truth of the matter, CCHQ will be bombarding Jewish voters with the antisemitism slur and Labour will do the same with Boris and Islamophobia and racism; and Plaid Cymru will remind their voters what Boris said about Welsh.
Yes. Except Corbyn is anti-Jewish also. Because Israel is a Jewish state and he despises it, ergo, he is anti-Jewish. Anti-semitic together with his friends. But as you say, and as @Streeter notes, few care. That prominent Israeli Margaret Hodge, perhaps. A few others. Otherwise it plays the right thing to the right people. And for that reason CCHQ won't be making much of it.
Corbyn is not anti-Jewish but anti-Israel. Defining them as the same is to beg the question. Incidentally, Jeremy Corbyn is an Arsenal season ticket holder. I expect CCHQ is scouring crowd scenes to lip-read Corbyn referring to Spurs as "yids" as Spurs fans themselves have done for decades. Maybe they will turn something up but not so far.
My take is that may well end up about right on the night. Maybe give Labour five more seats, the LibDems five less. But close.
This WILL be a Brexit election. Views formed over the past four years on Brexit are not going to change over a four week campaign. Boris's "let's get it done - and move on" will resonate. As I said earlier, the Brexit Party vote might get squeezed by the Tories, which will offset any Remain tactical voting.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
Most of the northern marginal seats the Tories are targeting voted for Thatcher in 1983, they are marginals for a reason
Just seen the following missive from Lib Dems to members "We’ve hit the ground running. Over the last two months we’ve knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors, delivered millions of leaflets and letters and run the largest online campaign of any political party. We’re the fastest growing political party in the country". No leaflets or canvassing here, nothing at all from anyone.
.
In London here and receiving one leaflet every couple of months from them, nothing from others since the Euros. Never actually had a politician knock on my door though, would have assumed that was something that didnt happen any more if I didnt read this site.
The Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and Green party are set to unveil a general election pact in which the parties would stand aside in certain seats to boost each others’ chances. An announcement is expected next week.
The three-party process is taking place under the umbrella of a grouping called Unite to Remain, whose directors include Jim Knight, a former Labour MP who is now a peer, and Jessica Simor, a prominent remain-supporting QC.
When the campaign was formally launched earlier in the month, the Lib Dems’ Heidi Allen, who announced on Tuesday she was standing down as an MP, said it hoped to cover 70 constituencies. This would involve the three parties standing down for each other and, in some places, not standing against strongly remain Labour candidates.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
I think he's come out of all of this with massive credit. Wonder if he'll get the LD whip back now ?
I'm sure he will. He says "I’ve been a member of the Lib Dems for over 20 years. I’m a liberal at heart. So I’ve got every intention of standing for the Eastbourne Liberal Democrats."
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
When it comes to political campaigning, whoever advised the last winners is acclaimed a genius. 2010 Lynton Crosby; 2015 Jim Messina; 2016 Dominic Cummings; 2017 Momentum.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
When it comes to political campaigning, whoever advised the last winners is acclaimed a genius. 2010 Lynton Crosby; 2015 Jim Messina; 2016 Dominic Cummings; 2017 Momentum.
2017 Momentum Winners? They couldnt even beat Nick Timothy and the Maybot!
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
Just seen the following missive from Lib Dems to members "We’ve hit the ground running. Over the last two months we’ve knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors, delivered millions of leaflets and letters and run the largest online campaign of any political party. We’re the fastest growing political party in the country". No leaflets or canvassing here, nothing at all from anyone.
.
I received the following from UKIP to UKIP supporters just before the election was confirmed:
Nigel finishes by saying: Can any Brexiteer inclined to support this Treaty [Johnson's Deal] honestly say that it amounts to a proper Brexit? A Clean-Break Brexit remains the best deal for Britain. We need a General Election for a Leaver alliance to win a big majority and make Brexit a reality.
He is knocking the Deal as not real Brexit but he also speaks of a "Leaver alliance" so his strategy is not clear to me.
Surely the optimum Farage strategy should be to enter into an alliance with the tories to only contest seats the tories cannot possibly win, taking a free run at Thurrock, Hartlepool etc and hope to pick up a small number of seats and then hope that those seats give Farage a voice in a Con minority government to twist their arm into a harder Brexit? I think it's a very outside chance but that's probably the very best Farage and his band of merry men can hope for.
Does the disassociation of this election from any locals mean we’ll see more local by-elections during it, or do they all now get rolled up into the night itself? Just wondering if there’s going to be an extra source of information, to the extent those votes are indicatative.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
When it comes to political campaigning, whoever advised the last winners is acclaimed a genius. 2010 Lynton Crosby; 2015 Jim Messina; 2016 Dominic Cummings; 2017 Momentum.
Cummings has a record over a number of campaigns going back over many years.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
Most of the northern marginal seats the Tories are targeting voted for Thatcher in 1983, they are marginals for a reason
Quite a few didn't: Bishop Auckland, Stockton North, Workington, Wansbeck, Blyth Valley, NW Durham, Sunderland Central, etc. I know most of those are long-shots rather than easy targets.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
The Tories can now win back Eastbourne then, given Eastbourne voted 57% Leave
This comment is a good illustration of why you are in big trouble.
Your reply a good reason why arrogant diehard Remainers are in trouble
No you misunderstand (I think).
Of course it's possible to attain unity by booting out everyone with whom you disagree. The ever-decreasing circle of true believers becomes its own self-fulfilling prophecy.
To win elections you have to reach out, not in. You think you're on safe ground by appealing to leavers to win this election. So let me spell this out more directly.
The Conservatives need remainers to win an outright majority in this country. The Johnson-Cummings leadership are doing all they can to achieve the opposite.
The Tories need a few Remain voters who respect democracy, the Tories do not need any diehard Remainer fanatics like you trying to overturn the Leave vote to win a Tory majority under FPTP
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
If its a small majority he needs ERG very much onside so yes they remain in place. Vote Tory get Raab & Patel.
After four disastrous years the Tories deserve a stint in opposition.
Ah, the Labour Party propaganda machine is here.
This is a betting site mate. If you want to push partisan attack lines try Labour List.
I bow before the CR god of objectivity. Chuckles.
I’m more objective than you could ever dream to be.
And modest too.
No, it’s a fact. I bet on a Lab-LD-SNP coalition first thing this morning.
Do you think that’s me cheerleading my own side?
You turn into a poor man’s Damien McBride when you’re tubthumbing for Labour. I know you’re an activist and all but you’re much more interesting and intelligent than that, and it’s a real turnoff.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
The Tories can now win back Eastbourne then, given Eastbourne voted 57% Leave
This comment is a good illustration of why you are in big trouble.
Your reply a good reason why arrogant diehard Remainers are in trouble
No you misunderstand (I think).
Of course it's possible to attain unity by booting out everyone with whom you disagree. The ever-decreasing circle of true believers becomes its own self-fulfilling prophecy.
To win elections you have to reach out, not in. You think you're on safe ground by appealing to leavers to win this election. So let me spell this out more directly.
The Conservatives need remainers to win an outright majority in this country. The Johnson-Cummings leadership are doing all they can to achieve the opposite.
The Tories need a few Remain voters who respect democracy, the Tories do not need any diehard Remainer fanatics like you trying to overturn the Leave vote to win a Tory majority under FPTP
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
Most of the northern marginal seats the Tories are targeting voted for Thatcher in 1983, they are marginals for a reason
Quite a few didn't: Bishop Auckland, Stockton North, Workington, Wansbeck, Blyth Valley, NW Durham, Sunderland Central, etc. I know most of those are long-shots rather than easy targets.
Of those only Bishop Auckland is even in the top 50 Tory target seats and Workington and Bishop Auckland even in the top 100 Tory target seats, the Tories could still win a comfortable majority falling short in almost all of them
My take is that may well end up about right on the night. Maybe give Labour five more seats, the LibDems five less. But close.
This WILL be a Brexit election. Views formed over the past four years on Brexit are not going to change over a four week campaign. Boris's "let's get it done - and move on" will resonate. As I said earlier, the Brexit Party vote might get squeezed by the Tories, which will offset any Remain tactical voting.
That is a confident prediction and we will see if you are right. I cannot in my head think that the Tories are going to make the leap and start breaking through full scale in those Tory/Lab marginals they’d need for such a majority, but it will be interesting to see.
I do think on balance there will be a Tory majority, only I see it in the single digits.
The Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and Green party are set to unveil a general election pact in which the parties would stand aside in certain seats to boost each others’ chances. An announcement is expected next week.
The three-party process is taking place under the umbrella of a grouping called Unite to Remain, whose directors include Jim Knight, a former Labour MP who is now a peer, and Jessica Simor, a prominent remain-supporting QC.
When the campaign was formally launched earlier in the month, the Lib Dems’ Heidi Allen, who announced on Tuesday she was standing down as an MP, said it hoped to cover 70 constituencies. This would involve the three parties standing down for each other and, in some places, not standing against strongly remain Labour candidates.
There is only one winner from this "Remain Alliance".
No doubt the LibDems will be sending Plaid Cymru and the Greens to the heavily Brexit-voting Welsh Valleys seats to explain to them that they are thick and their votes should be ignored.
Surely the optimum Farage strategy should be to enter into an alliance with the tories to only contest seats the tories cannot possibly win, taking a free run at Thurrock, Hartlepool etc and hope to pick up a small number of seats and then hope that those seats give Farage a voice in a Con minority government to twist their arm into a harder Brexit? I think it's a very outside chance but that's probably the very best Farage and his band of merry men can hope for.
Scargill's Socialist Labour (he's still alive apparently) are running a candidate in the Magadan of the North East with the backing of a cabal of recent ejectees from Labour backing. That will split the 30+ BMI simpleton vote that Farage is targeting so he may have to look beyond Hartlepool. Which is a shame because they deserve him and vice versa.
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
Roger, You just have to look and listen, You are patently not doing this or you would realise how anti-Semitic Corbyn..
Corbyn is anti-Israel rather than anti-Jewish but in a sense that is academic because the CCHQ spin team will be targeting Jewish voters on Facebook with the antisemitic Corbyn message, and at the same time Labour will be sending the Islamophobic and racist Boris messages to Muslim and BAME voters.
Whilst its sad that both main parties have racism problems, they reflect the wider country. A significant part of the Brexit vote was unease about changing communities and ultimately race and immigration is a key part of that as it has been for millenia. For all the people tutting about Labour anti-semitism / Tory islamophobia there are Gillian Duffy style voters nodding along in agreement. Not overtly racist. Just an underlying tone of prejudice against anyone who isn't like them
I don't think that Corbyn is an anti-Semite. I don't think that Boris is an Islamophobe. I don't think that Gillian Duffy is prejudiced. (And I am no fan of all three).
It has became very easy to tar politicians we don't like, Malcolm Tucker-style, with these labels.
I think Corbyn is naive in the motivations of the images he likes (Jewish bankers being crushed) and those he associates with (Hamas and IRA) but I don’t think he is directly anti-Semitic. I think he has a problem with leadership in this area though which by it’s failure is worse.
I think Boris is naive in the language he has used. As they say in comedy you should punch up at the butt of jokes, and calling women in burkas postboxes is not that. He again has a greater responsibility as leader, and he seems to be becoming more florid in Parliament in his efforts to provoke the opposition.
I have real sympathy with people like Duffy. Like the man in Rochester with his English flag, there are a large number of patriotic brits, whose communities have changed massively, and for whom not knowing the correct PC terms for immigrant groups, and complaining about drops in living standards due to an influx of immigration, means they are somehow racist. If my mum is anything to go by then they will probably roll their eyes at things like gender issues, and other Guardian issues. They are much more the daily mirror labour supporters.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
I'm not convinced at all by this. It's one thing winning a referendum by promises to hose money at the NHS and race-baiting. In a general election, the Conservatives need to win constituency by constituency without a local coalition uniting behind a particular candidate. His campaigning approach is not well-suited to that.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
When it comes to political campaigning, whoever advised the last winners is acclaimed a genius. 2010 Lynton Crosby; 2015 Jim Messina; 2016 Dominic Cummings; 2017 Momentum.
Cummings has a record over a number of campaigns going back over many years.
So does everyone. My point is there is an overreaction to whatever worked last time. To your point about Cummings, it has previously been suggested his experience is mainly with referendums rather than elections. (I've not checked.)
See the Telegraph series on digital campaigning that I linked to earlier.
I have a genuine question to which I wonder if anyone has the answer. Has the Tory government of the last two and a half years actually delivered anything of the things they promised in their 2017 manifesto? I appreciate that everyone has been fixated on Brexit, but there was fox hunting, pensions changes and various other things that were pretty prominent in their manifesto. Has there ever been a government which has delivered less of it's agenda?
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
I'm not convinced at all by this. It's one thing winning a referendum by promises to hose money at the NHS and race-baiting. In a general election, the Conservatives need to win constituency by constituency without a local coalition uniting behind a particular candidate. His campaigning approach is not well-suited to that.
Cummings only needs 35% even 30%+ for a Tory majority under FPTP, he needed 50%+ for a Leave majority in the referendum
Absolutely. I just think that it is sad that the Labour Party doesn't even bother to deny its anti-semitic associations or the fact that its leader is anti-semitic. But you are right. At 300,000 Jews in the general population, there is little electoral damage to be suffered by being avowedly anti-semitic.
There are probably net more votes positive to Labour by holding these views than not. The loony left and some Muslims hold these views heavily. When I lived in Bradford I was stunned by the things that would be said openly in front of strangers about Israel and Jews (no place on this earth for them types).
I am very cautious over this election and it could see Boris with a modest majority but also as the largest party checkmated by a remain majority leading to a referendum in summer 2020
I hear this morning that Boris is going to paint an optismitic can do narrative promising brexit will happen on the 31st December and on the 1st January the domestic policies on the NHS, policing, education and the rest will receive the full attention of his government.
I also understand he intends campaigning alongside Carrie bringing a whole new media scrum and shining a spotlight on her
Now, I maintain that the only way Boris wins is for the public to see his message that new years day is freedom from the EU and that his campaign with Carrie captures the public
I have no idea if it will succeed, but if it does that is his way to a 5 year working majority.
This GE is being fought over Brexit but it is more than that for Boris, he wants a full term premiership.
I think you are looking at the Carrie issue through Rosy Tory-tinted specs Big G. I think it far more likely that seeing her in tow will remind many people, particularly women, what a lying two-timing womaniser Bozo is. We shall see
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
I'm not convinced at all by this. It's one thing winning a referendum by promises to hose money at the NHS and race-baiting. In a general election, the Conservatives need to win constituency by constituency without a local coalition uniting behind a particular candidate. His campaigning approach is not well-suited to that.
The shady Facebook campaign stuff, with all those targeted ads at swing voters - something Cummings is said to specialise in - would suggest he knows what he's doing.
I'm in the valleys and my Facebook stream (lots of Valleys people and die-hard Labourites) was filled yesterday with Labour attack stuff. Lots of 'the Tories kill the homeless and kick poor babies to death' stuff. The type of ads that only appeal to the base.
Wow, so our political turkeys finally decided to vote for Christmas! Finally this wretched and indecisive Parliament gets put out of its misery. Good luck to those standing again, they’ll be needing it,
This will make me hugely unpopular on here, I know, but Parliament has been doing its job, which has been to scrutinise what the government has put forward. It didn’t like May’s deal and voted against. It voted in favour of Boris’s deal and was then denied further scrutiny by the PM. Infuriating as it may be to those who think Parliament should be a rubber stamp, Parliament has accurately reflected the divisions in the country. Rather than seek to persuade the Tories have sought to bully. The Tories’ contempt for Parliament deserves condemnation - not reward - at the ballot box.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tories get a majority as a result of peddling the same old myth - that this will get Brexit done. It won’t - the next big issue will be what happens at the end of the transition period. And it would serve them right if they find themselves having to confront the consequences of their own myth-making. But I hope they don’t. At the best of times the Tories with a large majority are unbearably arrogant. And these are not the best of times.
Not with me - I agree with most of that. Anyone who blames parliament for reflecting the country's divisions isn't all that much of a democrat.
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
..
Whilst its sad that both main parties have racism problems, they reflect the wider country. A significant part of the Brexit vote was unease about changing communities and ultimately race and immigration is a key part of that as it has been for millenia. For all the people tutting about Labour anti-semitism / Tory islamophobia there are Gillian Duffy style voters nodding along in agreement. Not overtly racist. Just an underlying tone of prejudice against anyone who isn't like them
I don't think that Corbyn is an anti-Semite. I don't think that Boris is an Islamophobe. I don't think that Gillian Duffy is prejudiced. (And I am no fan of all three).
It has became very easy to tar politicians we don't like, Malcolm Tucker-style, with these labels.
I think Corbyn is naive in the motivations of the images he likes (Jewish bankers being crushed) and those he associates with (Hamas and IRA) but I don’t think he is directly anti-Semitic. I think he has a problem with leadership in this area though which by it’s failure is worse.
I think Boris is naive in the language he has used. As they say in comedy you should punch up at the butt of jokes, and calling women in burkas postboxes is not that. He again has a greater responsibility as leader, and he seems to be becoming more florid in Parliament in his efforts to provoke the opposition.
I have real sympathy with people like Duffy. Like the man in Rochester with his English flag, there are a large number of patriotic brits, whose communities have changed massively, and for whom not knowing the correct PC terms for immigrant groups, and complaining about drops in living standards due to an influx of immigration, means they are somehow racist. If my mum is anything to go by then they will probably roll their eyes at things like gender issues, and other Guardian issues. They are much more the daily mirror labour supporters.
We need a wider variety of words with clearer meanings to resolve some of these tensions. Racists who believe in the superiority of a particular race are thankfully very rare. On the flip side people who have no subconscious prejudices at all against any other race, nationality, or religion are also pretty rare.
It is a spectrum where we use one word, racism, to cover behaviours and beliefs that are abhorent through to those that have subsconscious prejudices through normal human learning and socialisation.
My take is that may well end up about right on the night. Maybe give Labour five more seats, the LibDems five less. But close.
This WILL be a Brexit election. Views formed over the past four years on Brexit are not going to change over a four week campaign. Boris's "let's get it done - and move on" will resonate. As I said earlier, the Brexit Party vote might get squeezed by the Tories, which will offset any Remain tactical voting.
That is a confident prediction and we will see if you are right. I cannot in my head think that the Tories are going to make the leap and start breaking through full scale in those Tory/Lab marginals they’d need for such a majority, but it will be interesting to see.
I do think on balance there will be a Tory majority, only I see it in the single digits.
Not confident - I just don't see anything more likely!
Wow, so our political turkeys finally decided to vote for Christmas! Finally this wretched and indecisive Parliament gets put out of its misery. Good luck to those standing again, they’ll be needing it,
This will make me hugely unpopular on here, I know, but Parliament has been doing its job, which has been to scrutinise what the government has put forward. It didn’t like May’s deal and voted against. It voted in favour of Boris’s deal and was then denied further scrutiny by the PM. Infuriating as it may be to those who think Parliament should be a rubber stamp, Parliament has accurately reflected the divisions in the country. Rather than seek to persuade the Tories have sought to bully. The Tories’ contempt for Parliament deserves condemnation - not reward - at the ballot box.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tories get a majority as a result of peddling the same old myth - that this will get Brexit done. It won’t - the next big issue will be what happens at the end of the transition period. And it would serve them right if they find themselves having to confront the consequences of their own myth-making. But I hope they don’t. At the best of times the Tories with a large majority are unbearably arrogant. And these are not the best of times.
Abosolutely. There were Brexit approaches that could have got through parliament (i.e. some of those that came close on the indicative votes would have surely passed as whipped government motions). Even Johnson's deal, though worse than May's, could have potentially got through.
I also fear a Tory majority due to split opposition. That wouldn't really bother me at other times (I didn't vote for Cameron in 2015, but - referendum aside - was not really concerned about him winning). I can't say the same about the current Conservative leadership and cabinet.
Surely the optimum Farage strategy should be to enter into an alliance with the tories to only contest seats the tories cannot possibly win, taking a free run at Thurrock, Hartlepool etc and hope to pick up a small number of seats and then hope that those seats give Farage a voice in a Con minority government to twist their arm into a harder Brexit? I think it's a very outside chance but that's probably the very best Farage and his band of merry men can hope for.
Scargill's Socialist Labour (he's still alive apparently) are running a candidate in the Magadan of the North East with the backing of a cabal of recent ejectees from Labour backing. That will split the 30+ BMI simpleton vote that Farage is targeting so he may have to look beyond Hartlepool. Which is a shame because they deserve him and vice versa.
For those that fancy a giggle, Corbyn is a splitter and the modern Ramsey McDonald apparently.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
Never actually had a politician knock on my door though, would have assumed that was something that didnt happen any more if I didnt read this site.
I'd say that when we knock, at least 70% of the time there's no-one in these days. With about half the inhabitants of my tiny town who've complained to me "no-one's ever knocked" I know for certain I or my wife have knocked at their door at least twice.
Add to that the growing use of homes that are downright inaccessible without using an entryphone that no-one trusts (remote outer gate, or blocks of flats that have external locks) and most political activists would say that voters simply don't want to see us.
I hope the anti Tory vote rememberers how to organise itself effectively. If not, 1983 beckons.
Precisely. We can all help if we focus on seats we have a decent chance of winning.
And what do you use to make that judgement? Using what happened in 2017 as the baseline might not be giving you the correct picture
Nick has already said that Labour is fighting a defensive campaign focused on holding the seats it already has.
Really? I missed that.
That doesn't really scream confidence on their part, especially as they are highly likely to get wiped out in Scotland (except for Ian Murray) if the European elections are an indicator.
Never actually had a politician knock on my door though, would have assumed that was something that didnt happen any more if I didnt read this site.
I'd say that when we knock, at least 70% of the time there's no-one in these days. With about half the inhabitants of my tiny town who've complained to me "no-one's ever knocked" I know for certain I or my wife have knocked at their door at least twice.
Add to that the growing use of homes that are downright inaccessible without using an entryphone that no-one trusts (remote outer gate, or blocks of flats that have external locks) and most political activists would say that voters simply don't want to see us.
I must admit when I said a politician had never knocked on my door, I am not tracking the times when I am out!
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
BiB - That might help the Tories win over those thinking of voting for the Brexit Party.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
Well, at least the Lib Dems aren't led by a homophobe this time.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
The Tories can now win back Eastbourne then, given Eastbourne voted 57% Leave
This comment is a good illustration of why you are in big trouble.
Your reply a good reason why arrogant diehard Remainers are in trouble
No you misunderstand (I think).
Of course it's possible to attain unity by booting out everyone with whom you disagree. The ever-decreasing circle of true believers becomes its own self-fulfilling prophecy.
To win elections you have to reach out, not in. You think you're on safe ground by appealing to leavers to win this election. So let me spell this out more directly.
The Conservatives need remainers to win an outright majority in this country. The Johnson-Cummings leadership are doing all they can to achieve the opposite.
The Tories need a few Remain voters who respect democracy, the Tories do not need any diehard Remainer fanatics like you trying to overturn the Leave vote to win a Tory majority under FPTP
Now there's a confused message.....
I don’t think it’s a message. It a description of what they need to do.
Absolutely. I just think that it is sad that the Labour Party doesn't even bother to deny its anti-semitic associations or the fact that its leader is anti-semitic. But you are right. At 300,000 Jews in the general population, there is little electoral damage to be suffered by being avowedly anti-semitic.
I doubt that. If people thought Corbyn was a racist it would make a big difference to both Jew and Gentile. People make their own jugements. Corbyn is a fierce opponent of Israeli and is pro Pa;estinian. A position he shares with a majority of his countrymen. Possibly even his 200,000 Jewish countrymen
Comments
At the moment.
I hear this morning that Boris is going to paint an optismitic can do narrative promising brexit will happen on the 31st December and on the 1st January the domestic policies on the NHS, policing, education and the rest will receive the full attention of his government.
I also understand he intends campaigning alongside Carrie bringing a whole new media scrum and shining a spotlight on her
Now, I maintain that the only way Boris wins is for the public to see his message that new years day is freedom from the EU and that his campaign with Carrie captures the public
I have no idea if it will succeed, but if it does that is his way to a 5 year working majority.
This GE is being fought over Brexit but it is more than that for Boris, he wants a full term premiership.
But he's certainly wrong on the electoral point - it would be unheard of for a count to be delayed so the RO can have a look at what comes in the next post - HY's proposition is so ridiculous as to hardly be worth debate. That he clings to it regardless says a lot.
As for Brexit Party fortunes, it depends on how angry people are. For disillusioned Labour voters whilst many recognise the damage done to them by Thatcher many also now recognise the lack of healing given to them by Blair. Thats where the "leave Europe and manna rains down from heaven" message has got to them, and having broken their habit of voting Labour they're angry that they haven't been allowed their manna. Of course people will stay home, question remains how many will turn out and in which numbers.
And Tories? For them to settle on the Boris deal means eating a lot of humble pie. I know the spin line is "get Brexit done" but they know that this is only the start, and its a "Brexit" where having imperiled the union we are still tied into Europe for a period of what could be many years. The only true way to "get Brexit done" is no deal, which is why so many of them back that option. Unless Farage goes quiet or there is some scandal, he will be visible and loud singing that very simple siren song.
The big question is, will the Lib Dems put up a candidate?
It has became very easy to tar politicians we don't like, Malcolm Tucker-style, with these labels.
Of course it's possible to attain unity by booting out everyone with whom you disagree. The ever-decreasing circle of true believers becomes its own self-fulfilling prophecy.
To win elections you have to reach out, not in. You think you're on safe ground by appealing to leavers to win this election. So let me spell this out more directly.
The Conservatives need remainers to win an outright majority in this country. The Johnson-Cummings leadership are doing all they can to achieve the opposite.
It looks to me as though as long as people support his deal, they are being readmitted (e.g., Rudd today).
Boris is not stupid. He realises to win he needs the votes of people who wanted to Remain, but think we should respect the referendum result. I think that is a larger constituency than people who want to Revoke.
As another General Election looms, the battle for No10 will fundamentally be fought and won online. In a five-part special series, we will investigate the tactics and dark arts being used by all of the parties to shape the outcome.
Conservative: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/10/15/revealed-tories-24-hour-meme-machine-plotting-win-next-election/
Labour: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/10/23/inside-labours-bid-install-corbyn-number-10-using-social-media/
Data brokers: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/10/27/revealed-fearsome-data-targeting-machine-will-power-labours/
The Cambridge poll has allowed me to compare my tactical model's prediction for Cambridge with the constituency poll, and fine-tune my assumptions.
Poll/My model
LibDem 39/48
Lab 30/35
Green 12/1
Con 10/8
BXP 7/8
My model assumes that 40% of the Green vote goes tactically to Labour and 40% tactically to LD. Clearly in this poll, there has been no squeeze on the Green vote yet.
The changes I have made to my model are:
Additive/Multiplicative 80/20 rather than 75/25
20% of BXP vote tactically for Tories
The amended model gives
Con 314
Lab 220
LD 45
Though, ironically, the shit-show of the Brexit endgame may give many independence-minded Scots cause to step back. The break-away from the UK will be traumatic and on many areas, the SNP's promise of sunlit uplands will sound a familar, hollow Brexiteer refrain.
The only real long-term chance to keep the union together is for Brexit to be a success - and for the beneifts to be obviously shared. Even if it is, the timeline may be too long in delivery. I don't doubt that Boris believes the Union has merit and should be held together. To do so, he is going to need to take some vey bold steps. A post-Brexit massive expansion of free-trade areas in Scotland and NI - perhaps up to embracing the entire countries - might be a gesture that would do the job. For now. But that would require a price to be paid by England and Wales.
Corbyn clearly gives the benefit of the doubt to people on the left with anti semitic views which overlap with anti Israeli views. Does that make him anti semitic himself?
Johnson clearly is fine with using language that is inflammatory to most muslims. Does that make him anti islamic or a plain direct speaker?
Duffy is a human and human emotions are heavily driven by prejudice, that is how the mind works. We are all prejudiced to some extent. What we should ask of each other is not to have no prejudices, but to be open, mindful and inclusive which will reduce those prejudices significantly to the extent that they are not even noticed.
"We’ve hit the ground running. Over the last two months we’ve knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors, delivered millions of leaflets and letters and run the largest online campaign of any political party. We’re the fastest growing political party in the country".
No leaflets or canvassing here, nothing at all from anyone.
.
All parties are coalitions of aligned interest and have ups and downs - 12 years Brown took over and the idea the far left would have run Labour Party for 4 years now would have been astounding.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Klul21t3kREO3Mv-LOUEUpEtQkYHZ2P4Dxc8q5EWUWY/edit#gid=0
Of course, if you don't.....
Anything else would be a net cost of tactical votes.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tories get a majority as a result of peddling the same old myth - that this will get Brexit done. It won’t - the next big issue will be what happens at the end of the transition period. And it would serve them right if they find themselves having to confront the consequences of their own myth-making. But I hope they don’t. At the best of times the Tories with a large majority are unbearably arrogant. And these are not the best of times.
https://www.thebrexitparty.org/read-this/#compare
Nigel finishes by saying:
Can any Brexiteer inclined to support this Treaty [Johnson's Deal] honestly say that it amounts to a proper Brexit? A Clean-Break Brexit remains the best deal for Britain. We need a General Election for a Leaver alliance to win a big majority and make Brexit a reality.
He is knocking the Deal as not real Brexit but he also speaks of a "Leaver alliance" so his strategy is not clear to me.
This WILL be a Brexit election. Views formed over the past four years on Brexit are not going to change over a four week campaign. Boris's "let's get it done - and move on" will resonate. As I said earlier, the Brexit Party vote might get squeezed by the Tories, which will offset any Remain tactical voting.
With Boris as Bad Santa ?
The three-party process is taking place under the umbrella of a grouping called Unite to Remain, whose directors include Jim Knight, a former Labour MP who is now a peer, and Jessica Simor, a prominent remain-supporting QC.
When the campaign was formally launched earlier in the month, the Lib Dems’ Heidi Allen, who announced on Tuesday she was standing down as an MP, said it hoped to cover 70 constituencies. This would involve the three parties standing down for each other and, in some places, not standing against strongly remain Labour candidates.
Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
Do you think that’s me cheerleading my own side?
You turn into a poor man’s Damien McBride when you’re tubthumbing for Labour. I know you’re an activist and all but you’re much more interesting and intelligent than that, and it’s a real turnoff.
I do think on balance there will be a Tory majority, only I see it in the single digits.
No doubt the LibDems will be sending Plaid Cymru and the Greens to the heavily Brexit-voting Welsh Valleys seats to explain to them that they are thick and their votes should be ignored.
I think Boris is naive in the language he has used. As they say in comedy you should punch up at the butt of jokes, and calling women in burkas postboxes is not that. He again has a greater responsibility as leader, and he seems to be becoming more florid in Parliament in his efforts to provoke the opposition.
I have real sympathy with people like Duffy. Like the man in Rochester with his English flag, there are a large number of patriotic brits, whose communities have changed massively, and for whom not knowing the correct PC terms for immigrant groups, and complaining about drops in living standards due to an influx of immigration, means they are somehow racist. If my mum is anything to go by then they will probably roll their eyes at things like gender issues, and other Guardian issues. They are much more the daily mirror labour supporters.
See the Telegraph series on digital campaigning that I linked to earlier.
I'm in the valleys and my Facebook stream (lots of Valleys people and die-hard Labourites) was filled yesterday with Labour attack stuff. Lots of 'the Tories kill the homeless and kick poor babies to death' stuff. The type of ads that only appeal to the base.
It is a spectrum where we use one word, racism, to cover behaviours and beliefs that are abhorent through to those that have subsconscious prejudices through normal human learning and socialisation.
I also fear a Tory majority due to split opposition. That wouldn't really bother me at other times (I didn't vote for Cameron in 2015, but - referendum aside - was not really concerned about him winning). I can't say the same about the current Conservative leadership and cabinet.
http://www.socialist-labour-party.org.uk/press.html
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
And we are off.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189467595558326272
And here was us on PB thinking that the Dear Leader would walk this as the public swung behind his wise and wonderful leadership.
Stand by for a lot more of this.